Wednesday, August 17, 2022

LME nickel volumes plunge with exchange still hostage to March trading fiasco

Reuters | August 15, 2022 | 

(Image courtesy of FastMarkets via YouTube.)

The volume of nickel traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME) dropped more than 40% in July as funds, consumers and producers continued to shun the market – months after trade was suspended for more than a week in March as prices dramatically spiked.


Traders say many previous participants of the market worry they may be buffeted by price volatility again, while others believe the type of nickel traded on the LME is no longer representative of the global market.

The world’s oldest and biggest market for industrial metals cancelled billions of dollars in trades on March 8 after prices spiked by more than 50% in a matter of hours to a record above $100,000 a tonne.

Average daily LME traded nickel volumes fell to 34,962 lots or 209,772 t in July, down nearly 42% from the same period last year. In January and February nickel volumes rose more than 22% and 23% respectively.

Related: Nickel price tops $30,000 for first time since 2008 amid short squeeze

“Volumes are down generally (on metals markets) partly because of global slowdown, but nickel has an extra burden,” a metals trader at a natural resources fund said. “People are still nervous about trading it on the exchange.”

Sliding volumes and open interest — the number of outstanding contracts due to mature or be rolled over at the next settlement date — mean low liquidity, which can exaggerate price moves.

“We have low volumes and open interest and a market that is becoming more illiquid by the day,” a nickel trader said, adding that illiquidity had driven away some fund business.

The chaos in March and a sense that the LME contract no longer represents the nickel market have meant many consumers and producers are avoiding the exchange, traders say.

According to Macquarie analyst Jim Lennon, nickel that can be traded on the LME amounts to around 600 000 t or 19% of global supplies at more than 3.1-million tonnes this year.

The remainder is nickel pig iron and ferro nickel used to make stainless steel. Nickel is also a key material for the batteries that power electric vehicles.

(By Pratima Desai; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
Alleged executive behind Lisa LaFlamme’s ousting allegedly disagreed with former anchor on multiple issues: report

MobileSyrup - Yesterday 

Lisa LaFlamme

For the past 12 years, Canadians have seen a familiar face every weeknight on CTV National News.

Unfortunately, in a move many have called sexist, that familiar face no longer has a seat at the CTV table.

Former CTV National News anchor Lisa LaFlamme announced she would no longer fill the anchor chair through a video message viewed millions of times on Twitter.
On June 29th, Bell told LaFlamme they won’t renew her contract due to a “business decision.” She was asked to keep this information confidential. The National News staff was not aware of her departure, her message indicates.

“At 58, I thought I would have more time to tell more of the stories that impact our daily lives as I have done for so many decades,” LaFlamme said.

According to reporting from Canadaland, the decision to oust LaFlamme was allegedly made by Michael Melling, vice president of news at Bell Media. MobileSyrup hasn’t been able to confirm the news independently.

The report states LaFlamme and Melling disagreed on two alleged issues. First, LaFlamme wanted more resources to cover the war in Ukraine than the company allocated. Second, LaFlamme defended CTV National News executive producer Rosa Hwang when the executive tried to shift her to a role on CP24.

“He does not stand up for the journalists…He doesn’t like it when women push back and he brags about how he’s destroyed careers of anyone who dares push back,” Canadaland’s source said of Melling.

The outlet also says Melling allegedly broke a rule Bell Media previously made not to interfere with its News Coverage. The executive allegedly shaped the company’s coverage of LaFlamme’s forced exit, asking CTV National News to do a segment with the show’s new host, Omar Sachedina. National News staff refused, but the segment did take place on the company’s local news stations.

“Melling determined the copy that went into the show about LaFlamme’s departure,” Canadaland quoted its source as saying.

LaFlamme has worked for CTV News for the past 35 years. She earned the anchor chair for CTV National News in 2011.

Many have contrasted her abrupt exit to Lloyd Robertson, the journalist who held the role before LaFlamme took over. Robertson was 77 when he retired.

“I feel other anchors who are as experienced and storied and hard-working as Lisa were given the chance to sign off,” Johanna Schneller, a columnist for the Globe and Mail, told CBC Radio’s Here and Now.

“One can’t help but think that women still have a shorter shelf life.”

LaFlamme’s feat at the anchor’s desk didn’t fall short. She covered wars, natural disasters and interviewed federal leaders. Yet she was robbed of her final moment.

“As I sign off from CTV, I want to express my deepest gratitude to all of you who call Canada home who have shared in this journey with me, and for the unwavering support of colleagues, friends and family,” LaFlamme said in her video.

Image credit: Lisa LaFlamme/ Twitter

Source: Lisa LaFlammeCanadalandCBC News

LILLEY: The full story behind Lisa's 'LaFlamme out' at CTV National

Brian Lilley - Yesterday
TORONTO SUN

National CTV News anchor Lisa LaFlamme in photos provided by CTV Wednesday on February 3, 2016.


Was Lisa LaFlamme’s ouster at CTV a case of cleaning up a toxic workplace? Was it due to a company axe man clearing out high-priced talent and establishing dominance? Did LaFlamme finally pay the price for her role in a costly lawsuit?

The truth appears to be that LaFlamme’s departure from the anchor chair of Canada’s most watched television newscast was due to a number of complex reasons. Those looking for a cut and dry story with an easy-to-hate villain or easy-to-love heroine will be disappointed.

There have been claims of an abusive work environment created by LaFlamme. Others have claimed ageism and sexism were the reasons Bell pushed her out.

After speaking to more than a dozen sources who have or continue to work at the organization, including those who have, until recently, worked with LaFlamme, this looks like a clash of egos combined with a company hellbent on cost-cutting.

Supporters describe LaFlamme as professional, passionate about her job and caring, but now the victim of a cold corporate culture at Bell. Her detractors put her down as another star whose bad behaviour finally caught up with them.

The parting of ways makes no sense from the outside. Her ratings were solid, normally close to 1 million people, sometimes shooting up to 1.2 million people watching her newscast which was always in the top 30 shows, according to ratings agency Numeris.

That’s far above what Global pulls in and more than double CBC’s ratings. In an industry driven by eyeballs, that makes her abrupt dismissal more puzzling.
Bizarre departure

The circumstances around LaFlamme’s departure: she broke the news in a self-recorded video from her cottage that was posted to social media and tells us there is more to the stor y. In her own words, LaFlamme was blindsided and said CTV made what they labelled a business decision.

There was no big send off, not even an on-air goodbye. It was quick, cold, and calculating.

“You have to ask?” said one of LaFlamme’s now former colleagues when asked if her own behaviour led to the departure.

Several sources, all former colleagues, described a toxic work environment at CTV News that started at the top with LaFlamme and her senior producer Rosa Hwang, now also departed. Even one journalist who maintained that they had only experienced good things with LaFlamme and Hwang said they were often referred to as the “mean girls” in the newsroom.

“When I started reading the stories about the toxic work environment on the Ellen DeGeneres show, it was like reading about the CTV newsroom,” said one source.

This wasn’t my experience with LaFlamme the few times I’d interacted with her over the years, but in those instances, she and I were equals of sorts — both journalists working at competing outlets. I worked for Bell Media in Ottawa from 2016-19 and never even heard a whisper of gossip about this.

Over the years, the reputation of Hwang, LaFlamme’s right hand, did spread, and it wasn’t always kind. Demeaning to journalists and editors in the newsroom was a frequent description.

Once LaFlamme was gone, though, the whispers got louder with claims that the anchor was harsh and condescending to the staff.


Lisa LaFlamme holds her award for best news anchor at the Canadian Screen Awards in Toronto on March 1, 2015.


“I don’t find her toxic, she’s demanding, but she was the lead anchor for a national newscast,” said one longtime associate who described the encouraging emails or notes they would receive from LaFlamme.

Even if all the claims are true, and gossip is highest when people are down, it wouldn’t be enough to force out someone as high profile as LaFlamme. I don’t buy that argument as Bell’s reason for forcing her out, and as you will see, there is reason to doubt claims of a toxic work environment were behind efforts to remove Hwang from the CTV newsroom, as well.

Was the writing on the wall?

Eight months ago, Bell Media, which owns CTV, made a move that in retrospect should have told us bigger changes were coming — Wendy Freeman departed as head of CTV News. While officially described as Freeman stepping down, inside the industry people saw the change for what it was.

Michael Melling, the man who replaced Freeman, is described in less than flattering terms by current and former Bell Media journalists. Politely, he’s called a company man or axe man for a reason. He cut costs and was the head of news when Bell laid off numerous newsroom employees.

According to former colleagues, Melling and LaFlamme definitely didn’t see eye to eye.

Sources say it wasn’t just budgets that they fought over, though that was a particular point of contention, it was also direction and staff. According to sources, Melling had tried to break up the dynamic duo of LaFlamme and Hwang by transferring Hwang from producing CTV National News to being the head of CP24 and the massive local Toronto news department.


If Hwang’s alleged role in creating a “toxic workplace” really were a reason for moving her out of the CTV newsroom with LaFlamme, why did Melling look to move her over to a position overseeing another large and successful news operation? Regardless, she didn’t want that job and made that known.

Hwang pushed back — several sources said she retained a lawyer to fight the move — while LaFlamme backed up her longtime associate. Sources say that, combined with battles over how much to spend on coverage of big stories, like the war in Ukraine, didn’t endear LaFlamme to the new boss.

As for claims that sexism was the reason for pushing out LaFlamme, Melling’s attempt to put Hwang in charge of a highly successful operation calls that into question. As does the fact that he has appointed Ramneek Gill as the general manager of CP24 and CTV News Toronto and Sophia Skopelitis as general manager of CTV News Channel and BNN Bloomberg.

Were past issues part of this decision?

So why the push then? Why fire LaFlamme, the face of the network?


If Melling was the one behind LaFlamme’s departure, then understanding why Melling, a relative newcomer to CTV’s upper ranks, was able to push out the star anchor of close to a dozen years requires looking at events in the past that appear to have soured LaFlamme’s relationship with the executive suite.

In 2015, longtime Bell executive Kevin Crull was thrown under the bus after the CTV newsroom, led by Freeman, LaFlamme and Hwang, according to insiders, complained that he was interfering with their journalism. Crull had instructed newsrooms not to give Jean-Pierre Blais, then the chair of the CRTC, Canada’s broadcast regulator, airtime.

That instruction was made public when the newsroom revolted at the idea that the executive in charge would have any say. Crull was shown the door within days after spending years working his way up through Bell on their phone and internet side, the side where most of their money comes from.

The other incident was the story on Patrick Brown that resulted in him resigning as leader of Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Party. While CTV still says that they stand by their reporting, key facts in the initial broadcast, which LaFlamme was intimately involved in crafting, were wrong.


It seems a long and protracted lawsuit — only recently settled — didn’t help LaFlamme’s standing at Bell among the executives.

In earlier times, someone in the executive ranks might have stepped in to block Melling or others from axing the face of the network — it didn’t happen this time. One former colleague said the bean counters at Bell won the argument on whether keeping LaFlamme was worth the investment.
Was this all about saving money?

Despite high ratings, it seems Bell wanted to lose the big expense of her contract and find someone else who would do the job for what most of us would consider a handsome sum, but still well below LaFlamme’s annual take.

LaFlamme’s supporters describe her as an old school journalist who always put the story first. At Bell Media these days, that doesn’t count as much as saving money does.

My initial response to LaFlamme leaving the way she did was that she deserved better on her way out the door, especially after 35 years, regardless of the reason. That remains the case, but according to sources, she may have caught the network off guard with her video posted to social media.

LaFlamme was expected to host CTV National on Monday, they had to scramble to find a last-minute replacement. Her permanent replacement was away on vacation, nowhere near Toronto nor a CTV studio, forcing the network to scramble to get Omar Sachedina in front of a camera to speak to local affiliates during their newscasts about his launch on Sept. 5.

CTV insiders say they haven’t been briefed on the changes or what direction the newscast is taking in the future.

Seems that at this point, the ship that is Canada’s biggest broadcast news platform remains rudderless and without a captain.

The Sun reached out to Bell Media, Michael Melling, Lisa LaFlamme and Rosa Hwang for comment. All of them declined or did not respond by deadline.
17-Year-Old Boy’s Electric Motor Design Could Revolutionize EVs

Dustin Wheelen - Yesterday 

© RideApart.comRobert Sansone 2022 Regeron ISEF
Robert Sansone’s synchronous reluctance motor takes top prize at the 2022 Regeneron International Science and Engineering Fair.

What were your major accomplishments at 17? Getting accepted into your dream college? Securing your first job? In Robert Sansone’s case, he could be on the verge of revolutionizing a new way to power electric vehicles (EV). The 17-year-old from Fort Pierce, Florida, recently claimed the George D. Yancopoulos Innovator Award at the 2022 Regeneron International Science and Engineering Fair for his novel synchronous reluctance motor design.

Sansone has always been a tinkerer. Despite his youth, the prolific inventor already has animatronic hands, high-speed running boots, and high-powered go-karts to his name. When Sansone stumbled upon a video illustrating the rare metals required to produce modern EV motors, he set out to find a more environmentally- and financially-friendly approach.

As opposed to the permanent magnet motors commonly used today, Sansone turned to a synchronous reluctance motor design, which is often found in fans and pumps. However, these motors don’t generate enough torque to power an electric vehicle. At least, not yet.

Permanent magnet motors leverage the attraction between a spinning electromagnetic field and magnets attached to a rotor to drive the motor. A synchronous reluctance motor does away with the magnets. The design typically features a steel rotor with several slots cut into the disc. As the rotor rotates, the difference in magnetism, or saliency ratio, between the steel and air-filled gaps helps produce torque.


© RideApart.comRobert Sansone Synchronous Reluctance Motor

Sansone’s novel synchronous reluctance motor takes a different approach, though. Instead of cutting slots into the rotor, Sansone introduces another magnetic field into the fold. The young inventor doesn’t disclose the specifics out of concerns for potential patent protection, but it seems like his theory works in practice.

Constructed from 3-D printed plastic, copper wires, and a steel rotor, Sansone’s prototype increased torque by 39 percent and efficiency by 31 percent at 300 rpm. Efficiency grew to 37 percent at 750rpm, but the prototype’s 3D-printed plastic melted at higher revolution rates. Sansone’s findings secured him the 2022 George D. Yancopoulos Innovator Award, yet he isn’t resting on his laurels.

For the Florida native's next prototype, he plans to utilize 3-D modeling and stouter materials. If Sansone achieves higher rpm and performance figures with his upcoming design, he will consider initiating the patent process and approaching automotive companies.

“Rare-earth materials in existing electric motors are a major factor undermining the sustainability of electric vehicles,” noted Sansone. “Seeing the day when EVs are fully sustainable due to the help of my novel motor design would be a dream come true.”

While the materials required to build synchronous reluctance motors are more cost-effective, the design complexity and manufacturing costs still pose a barrier to widespread use in electric vehicles. Still, with advances in additive technologies like 3D printing, Sansone’s design could shape the industry in the future.
ALBERTA
'Would like to see it moved': Community members raise concerns about location of proposed solar site near Calmar


The location of a proposed solar power project in Leduc County was a main concern raised by community members at an open house Tuesday evening.


Richard Haas, managing director of Voltarix, speaks during an open house held by Voltarix about the Creekside Solar Project in Calmar at the Royal Canadian Legion southwest of Edmonton, on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022. The solar project is being planned for RR 271 and TWN 494 outside of Calmar in Leduc County. Photo by Ian Kucerak

The Voltarix Group, the developers of the proposed Creekside Solar Project, gave a presentation outlining the project and heard concerns raised by community members during the open house from 5 to 8 p.m. at the Royal Canadian Legion in Calmar.

The proposed site is about 0.8 kilometres south of Calmar, spanning 127.62 acres.

Darcy Doblanko was one of the more than 40 community members in attendance. He said the topsoil is about 10 to 13 inches deep at the proposed site, adding the soil is in good condition.

“I think at the end of the day, the majority of us would like to see it moved to where it’s not as fertile of land, I think that’s the end game,” he said.

“We’re not against green energy by no means, because we need to do something with our society, but why put it where all this top soil is? I mean it’s crazy.”

Doblanko, a third-generation farmer south of Calmar, said the proposed site currently has canola and alfalfa growing on it.

“One piece at a time, we’re losing so much of our valuable, valuable farmland and you don’t get it back,” said Doblanko.


Darcy Doblanko asks a question during an open house held by Voltarix about the Creekside Solar Project in Calmar at the Royal Canadian Legion southwest of Edmonton, on Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022. The solar project is being planned for RR 271 and TWN 494 outside of Calmar in Leduc County. 
Photo by Ian Kucerak

Richard Haas, managing director for the Voltarix Group, said the proposed site could produce power for about 5,000 residential homes. He added he has heard concern from the community regarding preserving prime agricultural land.

“The Creekside Solar Project ensures that the soil below the project are not stripped from the site, this site is not subdivided for residential or commercial development, it’s not paved over,” said Haas.

“We’re doing our best to leave that agricultural value intact and continue to incorporate agricultural uses.”

The 127.62 acre proposed site makes up 0.03 per cent of Leduc County’s 151,000 hectares of prime agricultural land, said Haas.

While a large number of attendees had concerns regarding the project, Haas said some farmers within the area have expressed interest in grazing sheep on the property and others have said they were interested in using the small spaces between the rows of solar panels for agricultural purposes.

Haas said Tuesday was Day 225 of community engagement for the proposed project, adding only 14 days are required before filing a power plant application.

“We have everything that we need to file a power plant application today if we wanted to, but we’re going to continue having this conversation with the community and try our best to resolve issues before filing a power plant application,” he said.

Haas said a renewable energy referral report conducted by Alberta Environment and Parks has classified the project as “low-risk.” He added there is confirmed ground contamination at the proposed site but further testing is needed to assess the contamination level.

Community members pointed to the site’s close proximity to an operating substation, which helps connect the solar station to the electrical grid, as a leading factor in the selection of the site.

Doblanko suggested they use a different site in the area with working substations and worse soil conditions.

“There’s substations more south and all these places where there is poorer soil,” said Doblanko.

ktaniguchi@postmedia.com

twitter.com/kellentaniguchi
Record number of Canadians reporting first language other than English or French: StatsCan

The number of Canadians who predominantly speak a language other than English or French hit a record high in 2021, according to new census data released on Wednesday.


© Lars Hagberg/The Canadian PressPeople gather on Wellington street in front of Parliament Hill during Canada Day in Ottawa on July 1, 2022.

English and French remain the dominant languages in Canada according to Statistics Canada, but the number of people who speak a non-dominant language at home grew to 4.6 million, or roughly 13 per cent of the population.

Meanwhile, at least one in four Canadians reported having at least one first language other than English or French.

The increase is largely due to a rise in the number of Canadians who report speaking predominantly South Asian languages, including Hindi and Punjabi.

In addition, seven in ten Canadians whose first language is one other than English or French said they also speak an official language at home.
Stellantis plans a profitable goodbye for combustion muscle cars

Joseph White
Mon, August 15, 2022 

A Dodge Challenger is shown at the Criswell Chrysler-Dodge-Jeep-Fiat-Ram truck dealership in Gaithersburg, Maryland


By Joseph White

DETROIT (Reuters) - Stellantis NV's Dodge brand plans to squeeze maximum profit from the farewell party for its petrol-burning Challenger and Charger muscle cars, which are scheduled to go out of production at the end of next year, the company said on Monday.

Dodge will offer seven low-volume "heritage-influenced" versions of the Charger and Challenger at certain dealerships - previewing them under cover at events starting Monday in a throwback to marketing tactics that were old when the brand's current leaders were starting their careers.

The final run of the current Dodge muscle cars will be allocated to dealers all at once, said brand chief Tim Kuniskis to reporters. Customers will be able to see which dealers will get a car they want.

With their retro-styling and gasoline-burning six and eight-cylinder engines, the Challenger and Charger are throwbacks to Detroit muscle cars of the 1960s and 1970s. And like their forebears, the current Dodge muscle cars are getting run off the road by regulations aimed at curbing pollution.

Stellantis ranked last among major U.S. automakers in corporate average fuel economy in 2021, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. U.S. regulators earlier this year said they would increase penalties for failing to hit CO2 emissions targets, a decision that could cost Stellantis as much as $572 million.

Dodge brand executives are betting customers will see the last of the current Chargers and Challengers as collectible vehicles worth paying a premium to own.

"The thing I don't want is for some customer who wants one to order ten," Kuniskis said.

Stellantis has said that starting in 2024 it will spend $2.8 billion to retool the Brampton, Ont. factory that builds the Charger and Challenger to assemble vehicles that "support the company's electrification plans."
Apple's $30 million settlement over employee bag checks gets court approval

Illustration shows Apple logo

By Daniel Wiessner
Mon, August 15, 2022 

(Reuters) - A federal judge in California has signed off on Apple Inc.'s $30.5 million settlement in a nearly decade-old lawsuit claiming the company shortchanged 15,000 retail workers by not paying them for time spent in security checks after their shifts.

U.S. District Judge William Alsup in San Francisco approved the settlement in the 2013 class action on Saturday. The California Supreme Court in 2020 used the case to rule that state law requires employees to be paid when they go through mandatory security screenings.

Walmart Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. are also among major U.S. employers to face similar lawsuits. Amazon and a staffing agency last year agreed to pay $8.7 million to 42,000 warehouse workers to settle one of those cases.

The plaintiffs in Apple's case claimed retail workers often waited several minutes after clocking out, and sometimes longer, to have their bags checked before they could leave the stores where they worked.

Apple and lawyers for the plaintiffs did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Alsup had dismissed the case in 2015, saying the workers were not under the company's control during security checks because they were not required to bring personal items to work that would have to be screened.

A federal appeals court asked the California Supreme Court to decide whether time spent in post-shift screenings had to be compensated under state law.

The state court in 2020 ruled against Apple, saying it was impractical to expect employees not to bring personal belongings to work. The federal court then revived the case and Alsup last year said he planned to grant summary judgment to the plaintiffs and order a trial on damages.

The case is Frlekin et al v. Apple Inc, U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, No. 3:13-cv-03451.
Foreign Investors Dump the Most Canadian Stocks Since 2007

Stefanie Marotta
Tue, August 16, 2022 



(Bloomberg) -- Foreign investors pulled the most money out of Canadian stocks in 15 years amid fears that recession would hit an equity market that’s highly sensitive to changes in the economic cycles.

They reduced their exposure by C$12.6 billion ($9.8 billion) in June, the third consecutive month of outflows, according to Statistics Canada data released on Tuesday. Foreign investors took out the most money since 2007 as inflation soared at its fastest pace in four decades. Canadian stocks tend to be dominated by cyclical industries like banks and energy companies.

The biggest outflows in June came in bank stocks, which make up about a fifth of the S&P TSX Composite Index. These equities have dropped about 15% from their February high.

Decade-high inflation and fears of recession have weighed on Canada’s market, and some strategists have cooled on Canadian stocks. Others remain bullish that the market will beat the S&P 500 Index for the first time in six years.

Meanwhile, underlying price pressures remain high in Canada, with inflation building in July from the the prior month, which will likely keep the nation’s central bank aggressively hiking rates. While Canadian equities have rebounded in August as companies book better-than-expected earnings, the Big Six bank earnings next week could give investors a look into whether the downturn is a blip or the new status quo. The stock jumps of recent weeks could be little more than a “temporary summer bounce,” according to Scotiabank.

“The summer bounce in equities is great and could extend a bit more, but we wouldn’t get too excited,” Scotiabank analyst Hugo Ste-Marie said in a note in early August. “Key leading indicators are still heading lower, suggesting the economic malaise and pain will persist for some time.”
Barclays Warns of Credit Pain in Return to 1970s Inflation Regime

Olivia Raimonde
Tue, August 16, 2022



(Bloomberg) -- Rising prices amid a US economic slowdown will menace embattled credit markets, if history repeats.

The current inflation and growth environment is most akin to the 1973 to 1975 and 1978 to 1980 time periods, when credit markets did badly, according to Barclays Plc. strategists led by Dominique Toublan.

“Credit performance was poor then, and we do not expect this time to be different,” the strategists wrote in a note dated Aug. 12. The asset class “could experience even more pain if the current stagflationary backdrop develops into a deflationary one.”

Through the 1970s periods of rising inflation and weak growth, monthly high-grade credit excess returns were negative 14 basis points on average. Monthly performance was negative 58% of the time, about 15% higher than the long-term average, the strategists wrote.

Credit markets have been battered this year, particularly high-grade, as Treasury yields surged and the Federal Reserve boosted rates to tackle inflation. Despite a July rally -- which marked the best monthly return in two years -- investment-grade bonds are down almost 12% for 2022 so far, according to Bloomberg index data.

Bonds issued by technology companies, banks and basic industry sectors outperformed through inflationary years in both investment-grade and high-yield, according to Barclays. High-grade energy and junk-rated insurance debt also fared better.

During periods of stagflation, insurance, communications and consumer cyclical sectors underperformed, the strategists wrote.

“Stagflationary environments have not been kind to credit, with returns being negative on average when the growth backdrop deteriorates,” the strategists wrote.

Credit investors should be wary of stagflation or significantly slower growth, according to Terence Wheat, co-head of investment-grade corporate bonds at PGIM Fixed Income. He expects high-grade spreads to tighten from current levels before widening out by year-end as the US economy slows.

The spread on the benchmark high-grade index tightened to 131 basis points on Monday, off the 2022 peak of 160 basis points struck on July 5.

“There is still a probability of a deeper recession coming, so we have to be wary of that,” Wheat said.

There is, however, evidence that the worst of inflation may be over, according to David Norris, head of US credit at TwentyFour Asset Management. “The discussions on inflation is what’s going to drive performance,” he said. “There are very good arguments to suggest it has reached its peak.”

Norris expects investment-grade debt to perform better in the fourth quarter. He views spreads at 150 basis points to 160 basis points as good entry points.

U.S. Shale Faces More Than $10 Billion In Hedging Losses

Editor OilPrice.com
Tue, August 16, 2022

U.S. shale oil producers are in line to suffer more than $10 billion in derivative hedging losses this year if oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, Rystad Energy research shows. Many shale operators offset their risk exposure through derivative hedging, helping them to raise capital for operations more efficiently. Those who hedged at lower prices last year are in line to suffer significant associated losses as their contracts mean they cannot capitalize on sky-high prices.

Despite these hedging losses, record-high cash flow and net income have been widely reported by US onshore exploration and production (E&P) companies this earnings season. These operators are now adapting their strategies and negotiating contracts for the second half of 2022 and 2023 based on current high prices, so if oil prices fall next year, these agile E&Ps will be able to capitalize and will likely boast even stronger financials.

Anticipating the significant negative impact of these hedges, shale operators made a concerted effort in the first half of this year to lower their exposure and limit the impact on their balance sheets.

Many operators have successfully negotiated higher ceilings for 2023 contracts and based on current reported hedging activity for next year, even at a crude price of $100 per barrel, losses would total just $3 billion, a significant drop from this year. At $85 per barrel, hedged losses would total $1.5 billion; if it fell further to $65, hedging activity would be a net earner for operators.

E&Ps typically employ derivative hedging to limit cash flow risks and secure funding for operations. However, commodity derivative hedging is not the only risk management strategy operators use. Rystad Energy’s analysis looked at a peer group of 28 US light tight oil (LTO) producers, whose collective guided 2022 oil production accounts for close to 40% of the expected US shale total. Of this group, 21 operators have detailed their 2022 hedging positions as of August. The group includes all public hedging activity in the sector as supermajors do not employ derivative hedging as a funding strategy, and private operators do not disclose their hedges publicly.

“With huge losses on the table, operators have been frantically adapting their hedging strategies to minimize losses this year and next. As a result, we may not have seen peak cash flow in the industry yet, which is hard to believe given the soaring financials reported in recent weeks,” says Rystad Energy vice president Alisa Lukash.


Operators currently have 42% of their total guided and estimated oil output for 2022 hedged at a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) average floor of $55 per barrel. Overall, producers have hedged 46% of their expected crude oil output for the year. In the second quarter, companies reported an average negative hedging impact of $21 per barrel on their realized crude prices – the value they receive for production minus any negative hedging impact.

For some operators like Chesapeake Energy and Laredo Petroleum, the impact has been higher, at above $35 per barrel. Fewer companies reported any significant effect on their derivatives contracts in the latest quarter compared to the previous three months. Still, an analysis of the difference in the hedging impact on realized prices per operator between the first and the second quarter shows that in most cases, second-quarter losses were stronger by $4 per barrel on average.


The U.S. onshore oil and gas industry’s hedging strategy has been closely tracked as a critical barometer for cash flows, particularly given the sharp price volatility over the past few years, allowing investors and lenders to make funding calls. Operators have already increased the cover for their expected oil volumes in 2023 to 17%, with many targeting 20% to 40% of output to be secured with derivatives. Significantly, 2023 contracts would limit hedging losses at $100 per barrel WTI to only $3 billion compared to $10.2 billion in 2022.




The analysis includes all contracts, with full or partial floor protection: swaps, collars and three-way collars. Collected contracts reference different price strips: WTI Nymex, WTI Midland, WTI Houston and Brent. We have converted everything to a Nymex WTI equivalent, assuming a spread of $0.30 per barrel for WTI Midland, $0.70 for WTI Houston and $2.50 for Brent.

By Rystad Energy