The impact of the US vaccination program on reducing infections, hospitalizations, and deaths

By Dr. Chinta SidharthanDec 16 2022Reviewed by Danielle Ellis, B.Sc.

A recent study by The Commonwealth Fund reported that in the two years following the initiation of the United States (US) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination campaign, over 18 million hospitalizations and three million deaths have been prevented, and close to $1.15 trillion have been saved in medical costs.

Study: Two Years of U.S. COVID-19 Vaccines Have Prevented Millions of Hospitalizations and Deaths. Image Credit: Studio Romantic/Shutterstock

Background

The rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines has successfully limited the severity of the disease and significantly reduced the number of hospitalizations and death worldwide.

In the US, in the last two years since the initiation of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, close to 80% of the country’s population has received a minimum of one dose. With the emergence of novel variants exhibiting immune evasive properties, the US has also approved the administration of booster doses specific for these variants.

Although the bivalent vaccines, which were more effective against the Omicron variants, had not been introduced at the time, the monovalent vaccine coverage has significantly reduced the number of deaths and the burden on hospitals during the dominance of the Omicron variant in the US.

About the study

In the present study, the researchers used a computer simulation model to evaluate disease transmission in different scenarios and estimate the number of hospitalizations and deaths that have been prevented after the initiation of the vaccination campaign. Risk factors, demographic information, and immunological interactions during infections and vaccination were incorporated into the model.

Additionally, parameters such as the waning of vaccine-induced or natural immunity, as well as characteristics of different severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, were included in the model.

Five variants, apart from the original Wuhan-Hu-1 strain, that had a cumulative prevalence of 3% or more in the population were integrated into the model, including Iota, Alpha, Delta, Gamma, and Omicron.

The model also used data on comorbidities, changes in social restrictions during the pandemic, the age-based expansion of vaccine coverage, and the number of vaccine doses administered daily in the US.

Published data on the efficacies of various vaccines against infection, disease severity, and symptoms were used for the simulation. The simulations were performed for scenarios reflecting the actual vaccination coverage and pandemic conditions in the US and compared to scenarios without vaccines.

Major findings

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The simulation results indicated that in the two years since the US initiated the vaccination campaign, the number of COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths averted were more than 18.5 million and 3.2 million, respectively. The country also saved approximately 1.15 trillion US dollars that would have been incurred as medical costs if the number of infections and hospitalizations had not decreased.

The study reported that the prevention of severe COVID-19 cases through widespread vaccine coverage had also eased the burden on the healthcare system, which was already under the strain of unusually high incidences of respiratory syncytial virus infections and the flu.

Furthermore, the prevention of severe and mild SARS-CoV-2 infections also reduced the long-term burden on the healthcare system caused by the persistent debilitating symptoms characteristic of long coronavirus disease (long COVID).

From a social aspect, vaccinations also allowed the resumption of schools, businesses, and normal activities and allowed the relaxation, albeit slowly, of the restrictions enforced to mitigate the spread of the virus. Despite the administration of vaccines since December 2020, the actual numbers of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths reported in the US have been 82 million, 4.8 million, and 798,000, respectively.

In a scenario without vaccination, the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths would have been at least 1.5, 3.8, and 4.1 times more, respectively. Moreover, the economic burden of the medical costs incurred through these additional cases would have crossed $1 trillion.

With the emergence of new Omicron subvariants carrying mutations that enable them to escape the neutralizing antibodies elicited by the earlier vaccines, additional booster doses and bivalent boosters that are more effective against the Omicron subvariants have been introduced since September 2022.

Conclusions

Overall, the results from this simulation study indicated that in the two years since the US launched the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, over 1.5 trillion US dollars have been saved, and more than three million deaths and 18 million hospitalizations have been prevented.

Despite the emergence of immune-evading Omicron subvariants, the US would have faced 4.1 times more deaths and 3.8 times more hospitalizations without the national vaccination campaign.

Additionally, the US also deployed vaccines around the world, which helped in reducing the global incidence of COVID-19 cases and contributed to slowing down the emergence of new variants.

*Important notice

The Commonwealth Fund’s To the Point blog presents up-to-date analysis and commentary on the latest developments in health care and health policy. Please note that the findings of this blog have not been subjected to peer review and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.

Journal reference:

• Meagan C. Fitzpatrick et al., “Two Years of U.S. COVID-19 Vaccines Have Prevented Millions of Hospitalizations and Deaths,” To the Point (blog), Commonwealth Fund, Dec. 13, 2022.  doi: https://doi.org/10.26099/whsf-fp90 https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2022/two-years-covid-vaccines-prevented-millions-deaths-hospitalizations

Written by

Dr. Chinta Sidharthan

Chinta Sidharthan is a writer based in Bangalore, India. Her academic background is in evolutionary biology and genetics, and she has extensive experience in scientific research, teaching, science writing, and herpetology. Chinta holds a Ph.D. in evolutionary biology from the Indian Institute of Science and is passionate about science education, writing, animals, wildlife, and conservation. For her doctoral research, she explored the origins and diversification of blindsnakes in India, as a part of which she did extensive fieldwork in the jungles of southern India. She has received the Canadian Governor General’s bronze medal and Bangalore University gold medal for academic excellence and published her research in high-impact journals.

US treasury head hails EU adoption of global minimum tax

Janet Yellen says deal helps level playing field for US business, protecting American workers

AA SATURDAY 00:28, 17 DECEMBER 2022

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday welcomed a decision by the EU to adopt a global minimum tax of 15% on large companies.

"The United States led the world in being the first to adopt a minimum tax on the foreign earnings of domestically parented multinational enterprises, and both I and the President remain deeply committed to take the additional steps needed to implement this agreement, too," Yellen said in a statement.

She said the agreement "helps level the playing field for US business while protecting American workers."

The global system of imposing a minimum 15% tax rate on multinational corporations from 2023 was finalized in October, agreed by 136 countries that represent more than 90% of global gross domestic product, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) had announced.

The deal will re-allocate more than $125 billion of profits from around 100 of the world's largest multinational corporations, ensuring that these firms pay a fair share of tax wherever they operate and generate profits, according to the OECD.

Iran protests enter fourth month despite crackdown

Videos show demonstrations against the country's leaders in Sistan and Baluchestan province on Friday

Protesters rally in the Iranian city of Zahedan on December 10. Hengaw / ESN via AFP

The National

Dec 17, 2022

Anti-government protests in Iran entered their fourth month on Friday despite a bloody crackdown, mass arrests and the executions of detained protesters.

Sparked by anger over the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, a young Iranian Kurd woman arrested for allegedly violating the dress code for women, on September 16, the demonstrations have spread across the country.

On Friday, protesters in Zahedan, the capital of Sistan and Baluchestan province, chanted "Death to the dictator", a reference to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to a verified video shared by Oslo-based Iran Human Rights. Other images from Zahedan showed crowds of men, some raising posters with anti-regime slogans, and a group of black-clad women marching down what appeared to be a nearby street, also chanting slogans.

US-based rights group HRANA said hundreds rallied after Friday prayers in Zahedan, which has seen weekly protests since the security forces killed more than 90 people in the city on September 30, in what has been dubbed "Bloody Friday".

The trigger for that violence was protests over the alleged rape in custody of a 15-year-old girl by a provincial police commander. But analysts say Baluchs were inspired by the protests that flared over Amini's death, which were initially driven by women's rights but have expanded to include other grievances.

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Sistan and Baluchestan, on Iran's south-eastern border with Afghanistan and Pakistan, had been the site of often deadly violence even before nationwide protests erupted.

The province's Baluch minority, who adhere to Sunni Islam rather than the Shiite branch predominant in Iran, have long complained of discrimination.

Last week, a cleric was killed after being kidnapped from his mosque in the town of Khash.

Zahedan's chief prosecutor said on Tuesday that the killers of cleric Abdulwahed Rigi had been arrested, and accused them of seeking to stir trouble between Sunnis and Shiites.

The largely peaceful demonstrations sparked by Amini's death have been met with a crackdown by the Iranian security forces that has killed at least 458 protesters, according to a toll issued on December 7 by the Norway-based IHR.

Iran's top security body, the Supreme National Security Council, said on December 3 that more than 200 people had been killed in the unrest, including security personnel.

The United Nations says Iran's security forces have arrested at least 14,000 people.

Iran's judiciary said it has handed down 11 death sentences in connection with the protests.

Iran executed Mohsen Shekari on December 8 and Majidreza Rahnavard on Monday. Both were 23 years old.

Rahnavard was hanged in public rather than in prison as has been usual in the Islamic republic in recent years.

The London-based rights group Amnesty International said on Friday that at least 26 people were at risk of execution in connection with the protests in Iran.

A woman holds a picture of Mahsa Amini during a protest in front of the Iranian consulate in Frankfurt, Germany, on December 16. AFP

The crackdown on the demonstrations has led to international condemnation, sanctions and Iran's removal on Wednesday from a UN women's rights body.

Solidarity protests have also erupted worldwide, and a group of Iranians in Germany on Friday reached the final day of a hunger strike while camped outside their country's consulate in the city of Frankfurt.

Ultraconservative cleric Ahmad Khatami, meanwhile, lashed out at the European Union after the bloc slapped him with sanctions over what it called "repression against protesters".

Mr Khatami was sanctioned for allegedly inciting violence against protesters, including demanding the death penalty.

During a Friday sermon in Tehran, the cleric said the EU had a "black" human rights record, state news agency IRNA reported.

The EU "is on the top of the list of human rights violators", he was quoted as saying.

Iran's foreign ministry on Thursday condemned the EU measures, branding them "unacceptable and groundless".

Iran has accused the US and other countries of fomenting the protests.

With reporting from AFP

Amazon fails to properly record work-related injuries, illnesses: US agency

Labor Department division issues e-retailer citations for 14 recordkeeping violations

AA SATURDAY 00:11, 17 DECEMBER 2022


Amazon failed to properly record work-related injuries and illnesses during inspections at six warehouse facilities in five US states, the Labor Department said Friday.

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), part of the Labor Department, said it issued citations for 14 recordkeeping violations, adding the company faces $29,008 in proposed penalties.

"Solving health and safety problems in the workplace requires injury and illness records to be accurate and transparent," said OSHA’s assistant secretary Doug Parker. "Our concern is that nothing will be done to keep an injury from recurring if it isn't even recorded in the logbook which – in a company the size of Amazon – could have significant consequences for a large number of workers."

OSHA said its investigations at the six locations are ongoing.

Forest fires raging in seven Argentine provinces

85 firefighters, technical, logistical personnel deployed to help bring blazes under control

AA SATURDAY 00:08, 17 DECEMBER 2022


Argentine authorities said Friday they are battling blazes in seven provinces in the country.

Fires have hit Salta, Entre Ríos, Corrientes, Córdoba, San Luis, Río Negro and Tierra del Fuego, according to the country’s Ministry of the Environment and Sustainable Development.

It said Salta and Entre Rios have the most active fires.

As authorities push to contain the outbreaks they have deployed a range of measures -- including two helicopters and two hydrant planes belonging to Tierra del Fuego.

Eighty-five firefighters, alongside technical and logistical personnel, have been deployed to the area to help bring the blazes under control.

Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development, Juan Cabandie, praised the "coordinated, respectful and joint" efforts of those involved in the operations.

"From the outset, the province took charge of the situation and requested the collaboration of the national State which, through the National Fire Management Service, responded quickly by sending brigade members, air resources and participation in the territory," he said in a statement.

Vice Minister for the Environment Sergio Federovisky and Gov. of Tierra del Fuego, Gustavo Melella, visited affected areas Wednesday.

"We have offered the governor the incorporation of 20 more brigade members who will arrive over the course of the weekend," Federovisky told reporters.

He pushed for mayors to implement tougher prevention programs to stop fires from spreading.

Authorities in Tierra del Fuego declared an environmental emergency earlier this month, increasing a ban on starting fires until 2024, where recent blazes have scorched an estimated 10,000 hectares.

Africa’s Media Freedom in Spotlight as Leaders Gather in Washington

 
December 17, 2022 
Salem Solomon

President Joe Biden speaks during the closing session of the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington, Dec. 15, 2022.

WASHINGTON —

As the U.S. welcomed African leaders to Washington for a summit this week, the media freedom record of several of those countries was brought into focus.

At least 56 journalists are in prison for their work in 11 African countries, several of which have a long history of silencing the free press, according to a report released Wednesday by the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ).

While Iran and China registered as the most prolific jailers of journalists in the annual report, with 62 and 43, respectively, in prison, Egypt with 21 cases and Eritrea with 16 feature among the 10 worst countries.

Leading jailers of journalists

The report paints a grim picture for those imprisoned, often for reporting information unfavorable to the government. Overall, 2022 marked the highest total on record for CPJ, with 363 journalists in prison as of December 1, 2022.

CPJ’s Angela Quintal told VOA the report’s release is “rather ironic” because “we have these leaders who happen to be meeting President [Joe] Biden, [Secretary of State Antony Blinken], and doing trade deals, who are among the worst jailers of journalists in Africa.”

Eritrea was one of the countries not invited to the summit because it doesn’t have formal diplomatic ties with the U.S. However, advocates and exiled writers have been calling for the release of journalists imprisoned there, some for 21 years.

Families Hold Out Hope for Eritrea’s Disappeared Journalists

“Their whereabouts aren’t known, their families don’t know where they are and no one knows what kind of life they are leading or whether they are alive,” said Eritrean writer Awet Fissehaye.

The exiled poet is the executive director of PEN Eritrea. His organization recently displayed images of detained Eritrean journalists in the British Parliament to raise awareness.



In Cameroon, at least five journalists are in prison after authorities responded to a conflict involving separatist movements in the English-speaking region. Journalists covering the unrest were intimidated or abducted, CPJ reported.

Morocco has at least three journalists detained, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo has two journalists in prison. CPJ documented one journalist each in Algeria, Burundi, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Senegal.

Of the four journalists jailed in Rwanda, three were arrested for posting content deemed critical of the government on YouTube.

“They’re doing it on this platform because it’s one of the country’s few remaining publishing platforms, because the space for dissenting speech has been closed down in traditional media,” Quintal said.

She added that CPJ has heard “worrying reports of torture and ill-treatment and poor conditions” for journalists behind bars.

Rwanda’s Justice Ministry did not immediately respond to VOA’s request for comment.

Neighboring Burundi is responsible for the only known case of a detained female journalist in Africa: Floriane Irangabiye.

“She’s reportedly been sexually assaulted during her detention,” Quintal said.

CPJ’s researchers who spoke with people familiar with the reporter’s case say an intelligence agent allegedly groped Irangabiye.

Burundi’s prosecutor general has said the allegation is “unfounded.”

Journalists in Africa (Chart courtesy of Committee to Protect Journalists)

CPJ’s annual report offers a snapshot of journalists in jail, but that doesn’t offer the full picture, says Quintal. The nonprofit includes only cases of journalists detained by official government entities.

Ethiopia is one such case, she said. The country has been mired in a two-year-long civil war, and journalists have been caught in the crossfire.

In August, CPJ published research showing that at least 63 journalists had been detained or briefly held covering political events or stories about the war.

In the Tigray region’s capital, Mekelle, five journalists are currently held by the regional leadership. Three are accused of “collaborating with the enemy” during a period when the regional capital was under the federal government’s control.

Because the Tigray regional government is not officially recognized as the formal authority, the cases are not included in CPJ’s report.

"We are urging the Tigray rebels to ensure that they are released as soon as possible,” Quintal said. “No journalist deserves to be in jail for their work.”

Mesfin Araya, an attorney of one of the journalists, told VOA's Tigrigna Service that tactics are used to delay justice and that “justice delayed is justice denied.”

The regional prosecutor’s office said the journalists weren’t held because of journalism but because they were suspected of being involved in other crimes.

International pressure

Most of the journalists in Africa are being jailed on anti-state charges, but cybercrime laws and criminal defamation also present risks.

In Senegal, journalist Pape Ale Niang, who runs the news website Dakar Matin, was accused of spreading information harmful to public security charges for publishing stories about rape allegations involving an opposition political figure.

Senegalese Journalist Arrested on National Security Charges

And Oloye Ayodele Samuel of Nigerian outlet Taraba Truth & Facts is detained on defamation charges.

The arrest of even one journalist can be damaging to a country’s media freedom environment, experts say.

Authorities in Somalia have twice detained Abdalle Ahmed Mumin of the Somali Journalists Syndicate in recent months, in a move condemned by international rights groups.

CPJ and Human Rights Watch are among the rights groups who raised Mumin’s case in a Monday letter to the country’s attorney general.

“To this day [Mumin] faces ongoing threats and persecution,” the letter read. “Continuing his prosecution not only casts a chilling effect on media freedom and journalism, but it also significantly contributes to the closing civic space in the country.”

Quintal at CPJ says international pressure can bring change. In Egypt, at least 12 journalists have been freed, in part due to the efforts of international advocates.

Globally, CPJ says it has helped with the release of 130 journalists in 2022.

“That is why we do believe that the international community does have a role to play,” in ensuring the safety and release of journalists in states that Quintal describes as “repressive," "anti-press freedom," and "anti-free expression.”

VOA Tigrigna Service's Minia Afwerki and Mulugeta Atsbeha contributed to this report.

Salem Solomon is an award-winning multimedia reporter and editor with the Voice of America’s News Center.

Salem’s multimedia and data-driven projects include Hunger Across Africa, a project that won the Cowan Award for Humanitarian Reporting, Boko Haram: Terror Unmasked, Unrest: Ethiopia at a Crossroads, How Western DRC’s Ebola Outbreak Was Contained, Zimbabwe in Transition and How Long Have Africa’s Presidents Held Office?, which won second place at the 2016 African Media Awards. Salem has also been involved in cross-continental projects, taking an in-depth look at China-Africa and Russia-Africa relations.

Previously, she worked in the Africa Division, covering the latest news from across the continent. She started working at VOA with the Horn of Africa service while completing her master’s degree in journalism at the University of South Florida St. Petersburg, where she was a teaching assistant. She has reported and edited stories online, and for radio broadcasts and TV in English, Amharic and Tigrigna.

Salem’s work has appeared in prominent news outlets including The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Tampa Bay Times and others. She researches trends in analytics and digital journalism. Her work focused on journalism innovation and fact-checking initiatives has appeared in the Columbia Journalism Review, on Poynter Online and Harvard’s Nieman Journalism Lab, and she has taught advanced reporting at the University of South Florida’s Department of Journalism and Digital Communication.

For tips and inquiries, email salemsolomon@voanews.com.

INDIA

Centre cuts windfall tax on oil companies amid falling prices

Centre cuts windfall tax on oil companies amid falling prices

Written byAthik Saleh

Dec 16, 2022, 

The Centre has kept the special additional excise duty on petrol unchanged

The Indian government has slashed the windfall taxes imposed on domestic crude oil exports, diesel, and Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF).The cuts that become effective from December 16 bring the windfall tax on crude oil down to Rs. 1,700 per ton from Rs. 4,900 per ton.The government has been constantly revising the taxes, which were first imposed on July 1.

Why does this story matter?

• The crude oil market has been going through an uncertain phase recently. The sanctions and price cap on Russian oil, coupled with concerns about COVID-19 restrictions affecting China's oil demand have left the global crude industry in a tough spot.
• Prices have been falling consistently since November. Therefore, it makes little to no sense for the government to still levy windfall taxes on companies.

What is windfall tax?

A government imposes windfall tax on certain industries when the latter makes sudden, unexpected above-average profits due to economic conditions.Therefore, when an industry, the oil and gas in India's case, benefits from an event or a one-off external event that they are not responsible for and makes unexpected profits, the government taxes these profits separately.

Windfall tax on crude oil is now Rs. 1,700/ton

In the fortnightly revision of the windfall profit tax, the Centre slashed the tax on crude oil to Rs. 1,700 from Rs. 4,900.Per the Ministry of Finance notification, the government reduced the tax on ATF to Rs. 1.5 per liter from Rs. 5 per liter.The windfall tax on high-speed diesel is now Rs. 5 per liter, down from Rs. 8 per liter.

Why did the Indian government impose windfall profit tax?

The Centre imposed a windfall tax on the oil and gas industry after Indian companies made above-average profits due to the rise in international oil prices. This was a result of the Ukraine-Russia war.It is calculated by taking away any profits the companies are getting above a threshold.When it was first imposed, the tax on crude oil was Rs. 23,250 per ton.

Alberta NDP holds lead in new survey, but 'reluctant' UCP voters could be key on election day: pollster


Fri, December 16, 2022 

A new poll says that if Albertans went to the polls today, Rachel Notley's NDP would likely win more votes, but with a provincial election still months away, the same survey suggests it could be the mood of "reluctant UCP" voters that is key in determining the outcome.

The survey from Abacus Data, conducted from Dec. 6 to 10, found that 38 per cent of Alberta respondents would cast their ballot for the provincial NDP, while 32 per cent would vote for Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party. Three per cent said they would support the Alberta Party. Twenty-five per cent of the 1,000 people surveyed said they were undecided.

There are notable differences between cities and regions, according to the survey.


NDP support appears highest in Edmonton, where it had the support of 54 per cent of respondents compared with 22 per cent backing the UCP. In Calgary, the survey suggests a tie between the two parties at 37 per cent. In "other areas," the UCP had 37 per cent support, versus 28 per cent for the NDP. In all three cases, the number of undecided voters was at least 20 per cent.

Among decided voters across the entire province, 51 per cent said they intend to vote NDP, while 43 per cent said they'd vote UCP.

Vote intention

But pollster David Coletto says in his analysis of the survey results that understanding how "reluctant UCP" voters react over the next few months will be crucial to anticipating the results of the next election.

The next provincial general election is scheduled for May 29, 2023.

Vote choice by region and community type 

Vote choice by region and community type 

Coletto describes "reluctant UCP" voters as those who voted for the party in 2019 and today say they are undecided or would vote for a party other than the United Conservatives. He said the group represents about 16 per cent of the electorate.

"They are, I think, a really critical segment of the electorate to understand because where they end up going, what they end up doing, could be the difference between an NDP or UCP government," Coletto said in an interview.

The respondents making up the "reluctant" UCP group are more likely to be female than male (62 per cent versus 38 per cent) and evenly distributed across age groups, according to Coletto. They are also more concentrated in Calgary and in other communities across the province and less likely to be living Edmonton.

"Among the reluctant UCP group, 68 [per cent] are open to voting UCP and 68 [per cent] are open to voting for the NDP," Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data, wrote in his analysis of the results.

"That's a high level of overlap demonstrating the potential 'swingness' ... of this segment."

Accessible voter pools

Coletto notes loyal UCP voters like their leader, Danielle Smith, but among the reluctant UCP group, Smith has a "pretty negative" net favourable rating (-59) while Notley has a net positive (+9). A score of zero would mean as many respondents have a positive view of the leader as they would a negative view.

"The upshot: Notley is accepted by the group while Smith is disliked," he said.

Net favourables

One challenge for Smith among the reluctant UCP group, according to Coletto, is the survey's findings that two in three think she would be a worse premier than her predecessor, Jason Kenney, and only seven per cent think she would be better.

Kenney's run as leader of the UCP officially ended in October, when he was replaced by Smith. He announced he would resign his post last May after he secured only 51 per cent support of UCP members in a leadership review.

Smith vs. Kenney as premier

The survey also asked respondents to rate several political leaders on a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 means they really dislike the person and 100 means they really like them.

While Smith scored nearly 76 per cent on the likability scale with loyal UCP voters, she scored around 30 per cent with reluctant UCP voters. By comparison, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau received a 24 per cent score from the reluctant UCP group.

Coletto said Smith needs to change her perception among reluctant UCP voters, in part by focusing on the issues they care about most.

Three top issues

The poll indicates the cost of living is the leading issue for both loyal and reluctant UCP voters surveyed. Among loyal NDP voters, the issue is tied with health care as a leading concern.

"For the UCP to win over the reluctants, they should focus on the economy and taxes while NDP should make it all about health care," Coletto wrote.

Top 5 issues

The survey suggests that among the "reluctant UCP" group, respondents consider United Conservatives to be the most trusted in stopping any future mask or vaccine mandates, protecting the rights of gun owners, managing the economy, keeping taxes as low as possible and making Alberta an attractive place for new business.

But the same group considers the NDP to be the most trusted party in dealing with issues like the cost of living, improving health care, climate change and housing affordability.

Most trusted party on issues among reluctant UCP voters

The Abacus Data survey also asked all respondents what Alberta needs most right now: shake things up or focus on the basics?

Forty-seven per cent of loyal UCP voters surveyed said they want to shake things up, compared with 53 per cent who want Alberta to focus on the basics.

But at least 90 per cent of both reluctant UCP voters and loyal NDP voters want the province to focus on the basics.

One UCP policy that could "shake things up" is Alberta's new Sovereignty Act, which passed earlier this month.

The bill was introduced by Smith as centrepiece legislation to pursue a more confrontational approach with Trudeau's government on a range of issues deemed to be overreach in provincial areas of responsibility.

Twenty-nine per cent of all Albertans surveyed think it's a good idea while 41 per cent think it's a bad idea.

'Winnable' votes

Lori Williams, an associate professor of policy studies at Mount Royal University, said she wasn't surprised that the survey suggests a competitive race between the UCP and the NDP. She said it appears the "reluctant" UCP voters are winnable by either party right now.

"We've got a number of voters that are winnable," Williams said. "They're available, if you like, to be persuaded by either the NDP or the UCP. And the key to that is focusing on what's most important to Albertans and proposing a vision for the future that meets the concerns, the primary concerns, of those voters."

Williams said there's certainly room for both parties to make headway.

"The poll indicates there's an advantage to the NDP at this point in time. But again, we know that there are five months between now and the next election, and there's lots of room for both parties to try to appeal to to those voters that can be persuaded to move one direction or another."

The Abacus Data survey was conducted on an online sample of 1,000 adults living in Alberta. It is taken from an online panel and cannot be considered a true probability sample. However, a comparable margin of error for a sample that size is +/-3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.