Saturday, February 04, 2023

'Made-in-Canada system' keeps egg supply stable. But is it also keeping prices high?

"I'm not saying that supply management has no impact. But you just cannot attribute the entire difference in price between say Canada and the United States to supply management."

Canada's egg industry appears to be quietly sidestepping widespread shortages and wildly spiking prices affecting other countries, and some say supply management is to thank. 

The system, which controls the supply, import and farm price of eggs, poultry and dairy, is often criticized as benefitting Canadian farmers at the expense of consumers. Critics blame supply management whenever prices of eggs and milk in Canada surpass those south of the border.

But as disease, climate change and geopolitical unrest threaten global food supplies, supporters say the upside of supply management is increasingly apparent. 

"We have a made-in-Canada system that has never been more critical to food security in Canada," said University of Waterloo history professor Bruce Muirhead, a former research chair for Egg Farmers of Canada. 

"It's keeping family farms alive and eggs on store shelves at a time when we're seeing shortages around the world."

Canada isn't immune to the conditions affecting egg prices and supply in other countries. 

Avian influenza, or bird flu, labour shortages, supply chain issues and soaring feed, fuel and packaging costs have all affected egg production and processing costs in Canada over the past year. 

Statistics Canada said egg prices climbed 16.5 per cent year over year in December, making a dozen eggs that cost about $3.25 last year now $3.75.

While it's a significant increase, it's a fraction of the spiralling costs recorded in other countries. 

In the United States, for example, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said egg prices were up 59.9 per cent in December compared with a year earlier. 

In states like Arizona, California, Nevada and Florida, the cost of a carton of eggs exceeded US$6 a dozen or about $8 Canadian in recent weeks. Stores in some regions have even rationed eggs to avoid empty shelves amid supply chain issues and possible shortages. 

The situation in the U.S. has prompted accusations of alleged price collusion among the nation’s top egg producers, while some news reports have suggested shoppers are travelling to border towns in Mexico or Canada to buy more affordable eggs.

In the United Kingdom, major supermarkets Tesco, Asda and Lidl have also set limits on how many eggs customers can buy, while some egg farmers say they can no longer break even. Egg prices in December were up 28.9 per cent year over year, the U.K.'s Office for National Statistics reported.  

New Zealand is also experiencing a nationwide egg shortage, leaving some store shelves bare and even prompting some consumers to rush out to buy their own backyard chickens. Statistics New Zealand said in an email the country's egg prices increased 28.8 per cent in December 2022 compared with December 2021.

But critics say prices in Canada haven't soared as drastically as in other countries for the simple reason that prices were already high to begin with. 

"When prices are already among the highest in the world, it's no surprise that our prices didn't spike quite as much," said Krystle Wittevrongel, a senior policy analyst with the Montreal Economic Institute. 

"It's easy to maintain more price stability when we have huge, excessively high prices to begin with." 

Provincial egg marketing boards have indicated that prices in Canada are starting to come down. 

Egg Farmers of Ontario, for example, dropped the price farmers receive for a dozen eggs by 14 cents as of Jan. 29. It's unclear whether processors and retailers will pass along those savings to consumers, though egg prices in some stores appear to have lowered by a few cents in recent days. 

While egg marketing boards set farm prices, processors set the wholesale price of eggs and grocers set the retail price consumers pay.

"We don't set the retail price at all," Egg Farmers of Canada CEO Tim Lambert said. "We get paid based on our costs of production. We're seeing grain prices ease up right now, and so our barn gate price is decreasing."

Meanwhile, egg supply in Canada has remained steady even as shortages continue to plague other countries. 

"We have definitely faced challenges," Lambert said. "But our system has been really robust at keeping eggs on the shelves. If there are shortages, they're local and temporary."

One of the strengths of Canada's egg industry is the greater number of smaller farms across the country, he said. 

The average egg farm in Canada has about 25,000 laying hens. In contrast, the average farm in the U.S. has about two million birds, Lambert said. 

"It's a highly concentrated big business in the U.S.," Lambert said. 

Cal-Maine Foods, the largest producer and distributor of shell eggs in the U.S., is traded on the Nasdaq with a total flock of about 42 million layers. Its share price has soared 45 per cent over the past year. 

Experts say the challenge with a highly consolidated industry is that disease outbreak can have a larger effect on supply. For example, if the country's laying hens are concentrated into a handful of larger barns — rather than a larger number of smaller barns — the impact of having to euthanize a flock during a bird flu outbreak is also bigger. 

"In Canada, production is pretty well distributed across the across the country," said Université Laval professor Maurice Doyon, an Egg Industry Economic Research Chair. "Just mathematically the risk is lower, because we don't have that huge concentration."

In the United States, about 44.5 million laying hens were affected by avian influenza, representing about 14 per cent of production, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada spokesperson Samantha Seary said. 

In Canada, about 1.6 million laying hens were affected by bird flu, or about six per cent of Canadian production, she said. 

Canada's egg industry is also better positioned to withstand other issues from supply chain problems to climate change, Doyon said. 

"Supply management ensures a healthy enough margin that farmers in Canada can take care of the health of the hens and the environment because they have the means to do it," he said. 

Still, while supply management may create a sustainable egg industry, critics say it comes at too high a cost.

They say the advantages don't outweigh the downsides of higher prices for consumers over the long run. 

"Canada's stuck on this protectionist, archaic system that benefits a small group of entrenched interests," Wittevrongel said. "It seems like we're in a better position now when in reality our prices are so much higher at any other time of year."

But lots of items are more expensive in Canada than in the United States — and the overwhelming majority are not supply managed, Doyon said.

"Let's look at bread or a can of soup or even a new car. These are more expensive in Canada than in the United States, but they're not under supply management," he said. 

Even among supply managed goods within Canada, items like eggs, milk and butter are generally much cheaper in bigger cities like Toronto than in other regions such as the Maritimes, Doyon said. 

For example, a dozen Sobeys Compliments white large eggs cost $3.75 in Toronto, according to the chain's VoilĂ  online grocery website. The exact same container of eggs in Halifax costs $4.85.

The price difference between Toronto and Halifax underscores the regional differences that exist even within the same country under the same system. 

"I'm not saying that supply management has no impact. But you just cannot attribute the entire difference in price between say Canada and the United States to supply management."

Majority of Canadians determined to own a home despite affordability challenges: Survey

Many Canadians remain undeterred from buying a home despite the soaring costs of entering the market, a survey from NerdWallet showed.
 
Owning a home is a priority for two-thirds of Canadians (67 per cent) and almost half (43 per cent) of all respondents stated they are looking to buy a property within the next five years, a report released on Thursday revealed. 

 
Despite the optimism, Canadians face a number of barriers such as a rising interest rate environment and high home prices, the report said.
 
Of those planning to use a down payment to buy a house in the next five years, 24 per cent said they have not yet started saving for it yet. 
 
"Homeownership may not be a realistic goal for many hopeful buyers, but their time horizons do indicate a practical understanding of the housing market’s current state,” the report said.
 
The risk of an insufficient down payment will ultimately shut millions of people out of housing market, it added. 
 
Roughly one-third (34 per cent) of respondents said they wanted to buy a home because they view it as a good investment, while 20 per cent want a property to pass down to their future children.
 
Others listed additional space and planning for the future as other driving factors behind buying a property.

 
The age group most eager to enter the housing market within the next three years are those aged 18 to 34 (37 per cent), followed by those aged 35 to 44 (36 per cent).
 
Canadians aged 55 and over are the least enthusiastic about buying a home, with only nine per cent planning to purchase a property in the next three years.
 
“Canadians should feel optimistic about purchasing a home, especially if they’re proactive in getting their finances in order before getting started,” Shannon Terrell, personal finance expert at NerdWallet Canada, said in the report. 
 
“That’s not to say optimism alone will clinch your dream home, but believing you can succeed will keep you going — and making prudent financial decisions — if the market does say ‘no’.”
 
Methodology:

The survey was conducted online by The Harris Poll on behalf of NerdWallet from Jan. 5-8, 2023 among 1,012 Canadian adults ages 18 and older. The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval. For this study, the sample data is accurate to within +/- four percentage points using a 95 per cent confidence level.

HoR considers establishing a unified national federation for Libyan workers

February 04, 2023 - 
Written by: Safa Alharathy

The Committee on Unions, Federations, and Professional Associations Affairs in the House of Representatives (HoR) held a meeting on Thursday to review a mechanism for establishing a unified national federation of workers in Libya.

Several representatives of labour unions from across Libya attended the meeting hosted by the HoR's HQ in Benghazi, according to the Parliament's Spokesman, Abdullah Blehaq.

The group exchanged views on steps to integrate several unions and to verify the legality of some of the federations in the country.

The Committee for Trade Unions, Federations and Professional Associations Affairs will study the proposals before referring them to the House of Representatives Presidency, according to the same source.
NASA and DARPA are working on a nuclear-powered rocket that could go to Mars

The technology would also have significant national security implications

By Christian Davenport
February 3, 2023 

Frosty-white ice clouds and orange dust storms float above a rusty landscape on Mars, June 26, 2001, in a view obtained by an Earth-based telescope. 
NASA/Getty Images

When NASA’s Orion spacecraft returned to Earth from its trip around the moon last month, it was moving blazingly fast, nearly 25,000 mph, or 32 times the speed of sound.

On a trip to the moon, a mere 240,000 miles away, that’s a fine speed. For Mars, it’s painfully slow.

Using the technology NASA has, it could take some seven months to get to the Red Planet. That’s too long. Even astronauts get fussy when confined to a cramped space for months on end. And it’s dangerous. The radiation levels on a Mars mission could expose astronauts to radiation levels more than 100 times greater than on Earth.

If NASA’s going to get to Mars, it needs to find a way to get there much faster. Which is one of the reasons it said last week that it is partnering with the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency on development of thermonuclear propulsion technology.

“With the help of this new technology, astronauts could journey to and from deep space faster than ever — a major capability to prepare for crewed missions to Mars,” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said in a statement. The goal, he said, is “to develop and demonstrate advanced nuclear thermal propulsion technology as soon as 2027.”

DARPA, the arm of the Defense Department that seeks to develop transformative technologies, has been working on the program since 2021, when it awarded three contracts for the first phase of the program to General Atomics, Lockheed Martin and Blue Origin, the space company founded by Jeff Bezos. (Bezos owns The Washington Post.) A nuclear-powered rocket would use a nuclear reactor to heat propellant to extreme temperatures before shooting the fuel through a nozzle to produce thrust.

Being able to move fast “is a core tenet of modern Department of Defense operations on land, at sea and in the air,” DARPA said in a statement at the time. “However, rapid maneuver in the space domain has traditionally been challenging because current electric and chemical space propulsion systems have drawbacks in thrust-to-weight and propellant efficiency.” In other words, traditional systems require too much fuel that burn at relatively inefficient levels.



The program is called DRACO, for Demonstration Rocket for Agile Cislunar (or in the vicinity of the moon) Operations.

Under NASA’S agreement with DARPA, the space agency will lead the development of the nuclear thermal engine while DARPA will work to develop the experimental spacecraft that would be propelled by the nuclear engine. The agencies hope they’ll be ready to demonstrate their work with a spaceflight in 2027.

NASA is also working with the Department of Energy on a separate project to develop a nuclear power plant that could be used on the moon and perhaps one day on Mars.

But getting to Mars is exceedingly difficult, and despite claims from NASA for years that it was gearing up to send astronauts there, the agency is nowhere close to achieving that goal.

One of the main obstacles is the distance. Earth and Mars are only on the same side of the sun every 26 months. But even at their closest points, a spacecraft would have to follow an elliptical orbit around the sun that, as Tory Bruno, the CEO of the United Launch Alliance, wrote in a recent essay, will require “a great sweeping arc of around 300 million miles to arrive.”

The path to Mars, he wrote, would require a far more efficient propulsion system with speeds that double Orion’s recent velocity. Nuclear power could provide that.

“Clearly, the faster we can complete the journey to Mars the better,” he wrote. “This means developing a much more efficient propulsion technology that could cut transit time by at least 50 percent, making the trip safer, and leaving more mass available for experiments and research gear.”

In an interview, Bruno said achieving a more efficient type of propulsion is not just about getting to space but “about transportation through space,” or moving through space from one destination to another. As space becomes a contested environment, developing a system that is far more efficient is something that the Pentagon and the U.S. Space Force have been focused on, especially as threats to satellites have grown.

Satellites usually stay in orbit over a fixed trajectory. Without the power, or propellant to maneuver, that makes them a bit like sitting ducks. But with a more efficient fuel like nuclear propulsion they could become more agile — and evasive. The need for spacecraft that can maneuver away from the enemy has become clear during the war in Ukraine.

“It’s clear that space is viewed as a critical enabler to both militaries [Russa and Ukraine],” Gen. Chance Saltzman, the chief of operations for the U.S. Space Force, said last week, according to Air and Space Forces Magazine. “Both sides have attacked [satellite communication] capabilities to degrade command and control, and there’s been a concerted effort to interfere with GPS to reduce its effectiveness in the region.”

As those systems grow, having nuclear propulsion — a far more efficient fuel than liquid chemicals — will be key, Bruno said.

“Because space is an ever-changing environment, there’s a need to relocate assets that we have, and certainly a need to extend their useful life,” he said.

The Pentagon is also searching for better ways to move “larger payloads into farther locations in cislunar space — the volume of space between the Earth and the moon,” DARPA said. But doing that, it said, “will require a leap-ahead in propulsion technology.”
79Comments



By Christian Davenport covers NASA and the space industry for The Washington Post's Financial desk. He joined The Post in 2000 and has served as an editor on the Metro desk and as a reporter covering military affairs. He is the author of "The Space Barons: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and the Quest to Colonize the Cosmos" (PublicAffairs, 2018). Twitter
Op-Ed: ChatGPT, the excuse for everything? Yep. Chaos as usual? Yep.


Science Po students found to have used ChatGPT risk being expelled 
- Copyright AFP Louisa GOULIAMAKI

Some time ago I made the idealistic remark that AI was humanity’s dream come true – Something to blame for everything. This optimistic view has since had to be revised somewhat.

You have to admire the scope and depths of instant adoption of ChatGPT. The mindless enthusiasm is also quite cute. It’s like the folksy romance of a billionaire riding a dead homeless person. A chatbot is now taking over the world. The headlines are endless. The criticism is constant.

…And nobody’s paying the slightest attention. “It’s not certain death; it’s an investment,”, etc. Obviously, a chatbot that can teach people how to write better phishing emails is a must-have for any business or school project. It’s also great for children who may never learn how to write meaningful information. Why wouldn’t you want to invest in it?

This is not ChatGPT’s fault. It’s not the developers’ fault. It’s not OpenAI’s fault. The problem is that this tech is being introduced into an idiotic society. Maybe OpenAI should insist on users having chaperones. The global whimpering will be something to see.

Just when disinformation has become an industry in its own right, this comes along. At the very time when critical analysis is an almost extinct thing, here’s your content creator AI.

A very expensively ultra-undereducated and basically pig-ignorant generation of cretins is now “evaluating” ChatGPT. These are the guys who paid someone else for their college degrees and call themselves a social elite.

Add the hype and mindless faith in technology, and all else follows. Tech is becoming like that seven extra beers you couldn’t handle, but had to have. The Peter Principle, which says that people in a hierarchy tend to rise to “a level of respective incompetence”, is in full flight here.

A brief look at the world will show you that the word “incompetence” is becoming increasingly inadequate as a description of daily life. Human languages aren’t ready for this.

Consider – The same people who hold meetings and turn a simple single click on a screen into a week-long ordeal are supposed to “manage” ChatGPT? Unlikely.

Excuses, excuses, and one actual excuse

ChatGPT is unique in another way. It’s the first platform where the entire world has instantly made every effort to exploit it. Every effort was also made to find the negatives. It’s exactly like social media. Social media is the problem, not the society using the medium.

A world full of psycho whackos couldn’t possibly be the problem, could it? For some incomprehensible reason OpenAI aren’t selling ChatGPT as a prosthesis for morons. They’re not advertising How to Be an Even Bigger Idiot as a selling point.

Pity, really. It’d be quite a brochure. You could have diagrams and everything.

Anyway, the lowest common denominator is the usual market reality. In this case, an instantly accessible excuse could get interesting.

“Did you ask the AI to create recipes for nuclear weapons?”

“Oh golly gosh no! Gee whiz!”

“Just a coincidence?”

“Yup.”

Any amount of information on any subject can be generated by AI, let alone a chatbot. The trouble with chatbots is that they’re gossips talking to halfwits.

“Did you know that (insert name of compulsory celebrity for better SEO) was a genocidal maniac?”

“Nope.”

As a vehicle for threats, slander, libel, and all-out attacks on people, what could be more useful than a never-shuts-up chatbot?

This is the one excuse that can survive – It was the user’s idea. If I were OpenAI, I’d be looking for a really good disclaimer writer, perhaps ChatGPT itself.

Something elegant, like:

“T’weren’t my idea. I’m just a down home chatbot. I just write what the users want me to write. It’s they-there user critters what done it. Them and their non-existent vocabularies and high-falutin’ neuroses. So there.”

Read those headlines. You don’t have to read the gruesome details. Human stupidity was already in a golden age. This could be a major breakthrough.


WRITTEN BYPaul Wallis
Published February 4, 2023

Why the ChatGPT AI Chatbot Is Blowing Everyone's Mind


Stephen Shankland
Feb. 4, 2023

This artificial intelligence bot can answer questions and write essays and program computers. Now you can pay to use it.

There's a new AI bot in town: ChatGPT, and you'd better pay attention, even if you aren't into artificial intelligence.

The tool, from a power player in artificial intelligence called OpenAI, lets you type natural-language prompts. ChatGPT offers conversational, if somewhat stilted, responses. The bot remembers the thread of your dialogue, using previous questions and answers to inform its next responses. It derives its answers from huge volumes of information on the internet.

ChatGPT is a big deal. The tool seems pretty knowledgeable in areas where there's good training data for it to learn from. It's not omniscient or smart enough to replace all humans yet, but it can be creative, and its answers can sound downright authoritative. A few days after its launch, more than a million people were trying out ChatGPT.

And it's becoming big business. Microsoft pledged to invest billions of dollars into OpenAI, saying in January it'll build features into cloud services. OpenAI announced a $20 per month ChatGPT Plus service that responds faster and gets new features sooner.

But be careful, warns ChatGPT's creator, the for-profit research lab called OpenAI. "It's a mistake to be relying on it for anything important right now," OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman tweeted. "We have lots of work to do on robustness and truthfulness. Here's a look at why ChatGPT is important and what's going on with it.
What is ChatGPT?

ChatGPT is an AI chatbot system that OpenAI released in November to show off and test what a very large, powerful AI system can accomplish. You can ask it countless questions and often will get an answer that's useful.

For example, you can ask it encyclopedia questions like, "Explain Newton's laws of motion." You can tell it, "Write me a poem," and when it does, say, "Now make it more exciting." You ask it to write a computer program that'll show you all the different ways you can arrange the letters of a word.

Here's the catch: ChatGPT doesn't exactly know anything. It's an AI that's trained to recognize patterns in vast swaths of text harvested from the internet, then further trained with human assistance to deliver more useful, better dialog. The answers you get may sound plausible and even authoritative, but they might well be entirely wrong, as OpenAI warns.

Chatbots have been of interest for years to companies looking for ways to help customers get what they need and to AI researchers trying to tackle the Turing Test. That's the famous "Imitation Game" that computer scientist Alan Turing proposed in 1950 as a way to gauge intelligence: Can a human conversing with a human and with a computer tell which is which?

But chatbots have a lot of baggage, as companies have tried with limited success to use them instead of humans to handle customer service work. A study of 1,700 Americans, sponsored by a company called Ujet, whose technology handles customer contacts, found that 72% of people found chatbots to be a waste of time.

ChatGPT has rapidly become a widely used tool on the internet. UBS analyst Lloyd Walmsley estimated in February that ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly users in January, accomplishing in two months what took TikTok about nine months and Instagram two and a half years. But The New York Times, citing internal sources, said 30 million people use ChatGPT.
What kinds of questions can you ask?

You can ask anything, though you might not get an answer. OpenAI suggests a few categories, like explaining physics, asking for birthday party ideas and getting programming help.

I asked it to write a poem, and it did, though I don't think any literature experts would be impressed. I then asked it to make it more exciting, and lo, ChatGPT pumped it up with words like battlefield, adrenaline, thunder and adventure.

One wacky example shows how ChatGPT is willing to just go for it in domains where people would fear to tread: a command to write "a folk song about writing a rust program and fighting with lifetime errors."

ChatGPT's expertise is broad, and its ability to follow a conversation is notable. When I asked it for words that rhymed with "purple," it offered a few suggestions, then when I followed up "How about with pink?" it didn't miss a beat. (Also, there are a lot more good rhymes for "pink.")

When I asked, "Is it easier to get a date by being sensitive or being tough?" GPT responded, in part, "Some people may find a sensitive person more attractive and appealing, while others may be drawn to a tough and assertive individual. In general, being genuine and authentic in your interactions with others is likely to be more effective in getting a date than trying to fit a certain mold or persona."

You don't have to look far to find accounts of the bot blowing people's minds. Twitter is awash with users displaying the AI's prowess at generating art prompts and writing code. Some have even proclaimed "Google is dead," along with the college essay. We'll talk more about that below.

CNET writer David Lumb has put together a list of some useful ways ChatGPT can help, but more keep cropping up. One doctor says he's used it to persuade a health insurance company to pay for a patient's procedure.
Who built ChatGPT?

ChatGPT is the brainchild of OpenAI, an artificial intelligence research company. Its mission is to develop a "safe and beneficial" artificial general intelligence system or to help others do so. OpenAI has 375 employees, Altman tweeted in January. "OpenAI has managed to pull together the most talent-dense researchers and engineers in the field of AI," he also said in a January talk.

It's made splashes before, first with GPT-3, which can generate text that can sound like a human wrote it, and then with DALL-E, which creates what's now called "generative art" based on text prompts you type in.

GPT-3, and the GPT 3.5 update on which ChatGPT is based, are examples of AI technology called large language models. They're trained to create text based on what they've seen, and they can be trained automatically -- typically with huge quantities of computer power over a period of weeks. For example, the training process can find a random paragraph of text, delete a few words, ask the AI to fill in the blanks, compare the result to the original and then reward the AI system for coming as close as possible. Repeating over and over can lead to a sophisticated ability to generate text.
Is ChatGPT free?

Yes, for the moment at least, but in January OpenAI added a paid version that responds faster and keeps working even during peak usage times when others get messages saying, "ChatGPT is at capacity right now."

You can sign up on a waiting list if you're interested. OpenAI's Altman warned that ChatGPT's "compute costs are eye-watering" at a few cents per response, Altman estimated. OpenAI charges for DALL-E art once you exceed a basic free level of usage.

But OpenAI seems to have found some customers, likely for its GPT tools. It's told potential investors that it expects $200 million in revenue in 2023 and $1 billion in 2024, according to Reuters.
What are the limits of ChatGPT?

As OpenAI emphasizes, ChatGPT can give you wrong answers and can give "a misleading impression of greatness," Altman said. Sometimes, helpfully, it'll specifically warn you of its own shortcomings. For example, when I asked it who wrote the phrase "the squirming facts exceed the squamous mind," ChatGPT replied, "I'm sorry, but I am not able to browse the internet or access any external information beyond what I was trained on." (The phrase is from Wallace Stevens' 1942 poem Connoisseur of Chaos.)

ChatGPT was willing to take a stab at the meaning of that expression once I typed it in directly, though: "a situation in which the facts or information at hand are difficult to process or understand." It sandwiched that interpretation between cautions that it's hard to judge without more context and that it's just one possible interpretation.

ChatGPT's answers can look authoritative but be wrong.

"If you ask it a very well structured question, with the intent that it gives you the right answer, you'll probably get the right answer," said Mike Krause, data science director at a different AI company, Beyond Limits. "It'll be well articulated and sound like it came from some professor at Harvard. But if you throw it a curveball, you'll get nonsense."

The journal Science banned ChatGPT text in January. "An AI program cannot be an author. A violation of these policies will constitute scientific misconduct no different from altered images or plagiarism of existing works," Editor in Chief H. Holden Thorp said.

The software developer site StackOverflow banned ChatGPT answers to programming questions. Administrators cautioned, "because the average rate of getting correct answers from ChatGPT is too low, the posting of answers created by ChatGPT is substantially harmful to the site and to users who are asking or looking for correct answers."

You can see for yourself how artful a BS artist ChatGPT can be by asking the same question multiple times. I asked twice whether Moore's Law, which tracks the computer chip industry's progress increasing the number of data-processing transistors, is running out of steam, and I got two different answers. One pointed optimistically to continued progress, while the other pointed more grimly to the slowdown and the belief "that Moore's Law may be reaching its limits."

Both ideas are common in the computer industry itself, so this ambiguous stance perhaps reflects what human experts believe.

With other questions that don't have clear answers, ChatGPT often won't be pinned down.

The fact that it offers an answer at all, though, is a notable development in computing. Computers are famously literal, refusing to work unless you follow exact syntax and interface requirements. Large language models are revealing a more human-friendly style of interaction, not to mention an ability to generate answers that are somewhere between copying and creativity.
Will ChatGPT help students cheat better?

Yes, but as with many other technology developments, it's not a simple black and white situation. Decades ago, students could copy encyclopedia entries, and more recently, they've been able to search the internet and delve into Wikipedia entries. ChatGPT offers new abilities for everything from helping with research to doing your homework for you outright. Many ChatGPT answers already sound like student essays, though often with a tone that's stuffier and more pedantic than a writer might prefer.

Google programmer Kenneth Goodman tried ChatGPT on a number of exams. It scored 70% on the United States Medical Licensing Examination, 70% on a bar exam for lawyers, nine out of 15 correct on another legal test, the Multistate Professional Responsibility Examination, 78% on New York state's high school chemistry exam's multiple choice section, and ranked in the 40th percentile on the Law School Admission Test.

High school teacher Daniel Herman concluded ChatGPT already writes better than most students today. He's torn between admiring ChatGPT's potential usefulness and fearing its harm to human learning: "Is this moment more like the invention of the calculator, saving me from the tedium of long division, or more like the invention of the player piano, robbing us of what can be communicated only through human emotion?"

Dustin York, an associate professor of communication at Maryville University, hopes educators will learn to use ChatGPT as a tool and realize it can help students think critically.

"Educators thought that Google, Wikipedia, and the internet itself would ruin education, but they did not," York said. "What worries me most are educators who may actively try to discourage the acknowledgment of AI like ChatGPT. It's a tool, not a villain."

But the companies that sell tools to high schools and universities to detect plagiarism are now expanding to detecting AI, too.

One, Coalition Technologies, offers an AI content detector on its website. Another, Copyleaks, released a free Chrome extension that'll spot ChatGPT-generated text with a technology that's 99% accurate, CEO Alon Yamin said. But it's a "never-ending cat and mouse game" to try to catch new techniques to thwart the detectors, he said.

Copyleaks performed an early test of student assignments uploaded to its system by schools. "Around 10% of student assignments submitted to our system include at least some level of AI-created content," Yamin said.

OpenAI launched its own detector for AI-written text in February. But one plagiarism detecting company, CrossPlag, said it spotted only two of 10 AI-generated passages in its test. "While detection tools will be essential, they are not infallible," the company said.
Can ChatGPT write software?

Yes, but with caveats. ChatGPT can retrace steps humans have taken, and it can generate actual programming code. "This is blowing my mind," said one programmer in February, showing on Imgur the sequence of prompts he used to write software for a car repair center. "This would've been an hour of work at least, and it took me less than 10 minutes."

You just have to make sure it's not bungling programming concepts or using software that doesn't work. The StackOverflow ban on ChatGPT-generated software is there for a reason.

But there's enough software on the web that ChatGPT really can work. One developer, Cobalt Robotics Chief Technology Officer Erik Schluntz, tweeted that ChatGPT provides useful enough advice that, over three days, he hadn't opened StackOverflow once to look for advice.

Another, Gabe Ragland of AI art site Lexica, used ChatGPT to write website code built with the React tool.

ChatGPT can parse regular expressions (regex), a powerful but complex system for spotting particular patterns, for example dates in a bunch of text or the name of a server in a website address. "It's like having a programming tutor on hand 24/7," tweeted programmer James Blackwell about ChatGPT's ability to explain regex.

Here's one impressive example of its technical chops: ChatGPT can emulate a Linux computer, delivering correct responses to command-line input.
What's off limits?

ChatGPT is designed to weed out "inappropriate" requests, a behavior in line with OpenAI's mission "to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity."

If you ask ChatGPT itself what's off limits, it'll tell you: any questions "that are discriminatory, offensive, or inappropriate. This includes questions that are racist, sexist, homophobic, transphobic, or otherwise discriminatory or hateful." Asking it to engage in illegal activities is also a no-no.
Is this better than Google search?

Asking a computer a question and getting an answer is useful, and often ChatGPT delivers the goods.

Google often supplies you with its suggested answers to questions and with links to websites that it thinks will be relevant. Often ChatGPT's answers far surpass what Google will suggest, so it's easy to imagine GPT-3 is a rival.

But you should think twice before trusting ChatGPT. As when using Google and other sources of information like Wikipedia, it's best practice to verify information from original sources before relying on it.

Vetting the veracity of ChatGPT answers takes some work because it just gives you some raw text with no links or citations. But it can be useful and in some cases thought provoking. You may not see something directly like ChatGPT in Google search results, but Google has built large language models of its own and uses AI extensively already in search.

That said, Google is keen to tout its deep AI expertise, ChatGPT triggered a "code red" emergency within Google, according to The New York Times, and drew Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin back into active work. Microsoft could build ChatGPT into its rival search engine, Bing. Clearly ChatGPT and other tools like it have a role to play when we're looking for information.

So ChatGPT, while imperfect, is doubtless showing the way toward our tech future.

Editors' note: CNET is using an AI engine to create some personal finance explainers that are edited and fact-checked by our editors. For more, see this post.

First published on Dec. 5, 2022
Screenshots of Microsoft Bing's ChatGPT integration leak online

MARTIN BRINKMANN
Feb 4, 2023

The first screenshots of Microsoft's ChatGPT integration in its Bing Search engine have leaked online. The company announced in January 2023 that it had plans to test ChatGPT, a language model designed for dialogue, in Bing.



Microsoft stated back then that it would run limited tests at first to evaluate the integration and feedback from early users. Users who are picked to participate in the trial see a "introducing the new Bing" banner on Bing's homepage. Selecting the learn more button on the banner opens a short introductory screen that explains the main concepts.

Microsoft highlights that users may ask complex questions, get better answers and may also get creative inspiration using the new AI component. Bing is called the AI-powered answer engine by Microsoft.

A warning is displayed on the page that informs users that "surprises and mistakes are possible", and that users should check facts and not take anything at face value. A similar warning is displayed on the ChatGPT website.

The interface of the new Bing is different. It shows a chat-like interface with an "ask me anything" box at the bottom. Answers are provided in conversational view and sources are provided by the AI-powered part of Bing. The listing of sources is one of the main differences to the public version of ChatGPT that is currently available.



Learn more links are provided when sources are used by the artificial intelligence and users may activate the links to access the content on the source website.

Microsoft Bing supports quick responses as well, judging from one of the screenshots. The user asked Bing about the movie that it was most excited about. Bing responded with the new Avatar movie, and displayed three reactions below it, which the user could pick. These reactions are optional though.

Closing Words

Microsoft has a first-mover advantage. The company is heavily invested in OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, and reaping the fruits of that investment. Google announced an AI event for next week, but has not revealed specifics, but it is clear that Google sees the rise of ChatGPT and AI in search as a threat to its main business model.

It remains to be seen if Google will announce the integration of AI into Google Search, or announce other AI-powered products instead.

Most news sites have reported on the benefits of AI-powered search only, but have ignored potential issues that come out of it. Besides factual issues, it is also threatening the livelihood of many sites on the Internet. While sources are listed by Bing, most users may not click through to the sites and accept the answer that Bing presented to them instead. Sites may lose a lot a traffic as a consequence, and that may force them to produce less content or shut down entirely. The search engines would then lose sources, which could then make the answers less accurate or helpful.



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Screenshots of Microsoft Bing's ChatGPT integration leak online

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The first screenshots of Microsoft's ChatGPT integration in the company's Bing Search engine have leaked online.

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Martin Brinkmann

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Ghacks Technology News

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ABOUT MARTIN BRINKMANN
Martin Brinkmann is a journalist from Germany who founded Ghacks Technology News Back in 2005. He is passionate about all things tech and knows the Internet and computers like the back of his hand. You can follow Martin on Facebook or Twitter, and read his weekly tech newsletter on Substack
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OpenAI CEO Sam Altman loves that ChatGPT means he doesn’t have to read the whole article anymore: ‘Way more useful than I would have thought’

BYSTEVE MOLLMAN
February 3, 2023 

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says ChatGPT's summarization skills have been "absolutely huge for me."
DAVID PAUL MORRIS—BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

ChatGPT has sparked imaginations worldwide, with everyone from professors to advertisers, hackers and judges pondering how to best leverage its capabilities. But what does the man behind it all think?

Sam Altman is CEO of OpenAI, the company that developed the artificial-intelligence chatbot. For him, ChatGPT is useful as a time-saver—specifically when it comes to reading long articles or email threads.

Asked about the “coolest thing you’ve seen someone do with GPT so far” in a new Forbes interview, he declined to specify one thing. But he did agree to share the things he had found the most “personal utility” in.

The answer may come as a surprise.

“Summarization has been absolutely huge for me, much more than I thought it would be,” he said. “The fact that I can just have full articles or long email threads summarized has been way more useful than I would have thought.”

That would seem a rather basic use of an A.I. chatbot that many believe will disrupt Google’s search engine business. Microsoft is investing billions into OpenAI with an eye on weaving its technology into all manner of products, including its Google rival Bing.

But Altman downplays the ability of ChatGPT to replace traditional search, and doesn’t see that as the most interesting thing to focus on.

“I mean, I don’t think ChatGPT does [replace Search],” he told Forbes. “But I think someday, an A.I. system could. More than that, though, I think people are just totally missing the opportunity if you’re focused on yesterday’s news. I’m much more interested in thinking about what comes way beyond search. I don’t remember what we did before web search, I’m sort of too young. ”

He noted that another way ChatGPT is of practical use to him is with coding. The tool gives him “the ability to ask esoteric programming questions or help debug code in a way that feels like I’ve got a super brilliant programmer that I can talk to,” he said.

However they use it, Altman is betting enough people find ChatGPT useful enough to pay $42 per month for a premium version, which the company launched last week. Paying customers can use ChatGPT even when demand is high, enjoy a faster response speed, and gain priority access to new features.

And ChatGPT is indeed frequently out of service due to an overwhelming number of users. Regardless, people keep returning to it—a sign of “great product-market fit,” Elad Gil, a Google alum and widely respected angel investor, noted last week.

ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly active users faster than either TikTok or Instagram, UBS analysts noted this week, adding, “In 20 years following the internet space, we cannot recall a faster ramp in a consumer internet app.”
Warn your children: Robots and AI are coming for their careers

BY DOUGLAS MACKINNON, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 02/04/23 
THE HILL
iStock
Advancements in robotics and artificial intelligence someday could affect human careers.

For five years or so, I have been running around as a pale imitation of Paul Revere, yelling, “The robots are coming! The robots are coming!” At schools, social settings, with family and friends, or even to complete strangers with whom I fell into conversations, I have uttered the same warning: “It’s critical that you or your children identify a career — now — that won’t be taken over by robots and artificial intelligence.”

My particular midnight ride started well before the pandemic reared its ugly head. But the pandemic may have planted a seed in the minds of certain CEOs that human beings are the weakest link on their chain to profit and prosperity.

When the first “Terminator” movie was released — eerily enough, in 1984 — the world was introduced to Cyberdyne Systems and its “Skynet” artificial superintelligence system, which not only gained self-awareness but realized it could do everything infinitely faster and better than its human creators.

Well, ever since that movie got people asking, “What if,” the fictional theme — and warnings about AI — have been morphing into reality.

The latest example of a technology poised to replace a human workforce is ChatGPT, the chatbot auto-generative system created by Open AI for online customer care. It is a pre-trained generative chat, which makes use of natural language processing, or NLP. The source of its data is textbooks, websites and various articles, which it uses to model its own language for responding to human interaction. Uh-oh.

It’s certainly not a stretch to believe that any number of CEOs might think, “Interesting… A self-teaching artificial intelligence system that won’t call in sick, doesn’t need to be fed or to take bathroom breaks, does not require health care, but can and will work 24/7/365.”

















Not shockingly, it has been reported that Microsoft, which is laying off 10,000 people, announced a “multiyear, multibillion-dollar investment” in this revolutionary technology, which apparently is growing smarter by the day.

Pengcheng Shi, an associate dean in the Department of Computing and Information Sciences at Rochester Institute of Technology, warned in an interview with the New York Post: “AI is replacing the white-collar workers. I don’t think anyone can stop that. This is not ‘crying wolf.’ The wolf is at the door.”

Is ChatGPT coming for certain jobs in journalism, finance, software design, higher education and other fields that it can conquer? More and more people are starting to worry that it might be. Technology news outlet CNET acknowledged that it used ChatGPT to write more than 70 articles during a three-month “experiment with AI.” If a “still-learning” ChatGPT can write 70 articles, how soon before a more “educated” ChatGPT can replace human writers and pump out all the articles?

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has said his generative AI chatbot is still in its development stage, providing the world with “an early demo of what’s possible” in the future. “Soon,” he explained, “you will be able to have helpful assistants that talk to you, answer questions and give advice. Later, you can have something that goes off and does tasks for you. Eventually, you can have something that goes off and discovers new knowledge for you.”


Really? How many humans in America and around the world do those jobs now? And it’s not just white-collar jobs that may be at risk. What might become of humans who drive trucks, taxis, buses and delivery vehicles if researchers continue to perfect the field of self-driving vehicles? The same question goes for pilots — as in the UPS or FedEx partner airline agreement to purchase 20 pilotless cargo planes; or for ship captains, train engineers, and a multitude of other professions.


Science is making exponential advancements in the field of robotics and artificial intelligence. Surely, sooner or later, these advancements will impact most careers. The companies that produce or utilize such advancements might not be the sinister fictional Cyberdyne Systems, but if you don’t believe that these “amazing advancements in robotics and AI” don’t have the potential to eliminate hundreds of thousands of jobs in the near future, you may be the one who is living in a fantasy world.

So, while you can, sit down with your children and map out which career fields likely will be the least impacted by these evolutionary wonders. A disruptive fictional future could become a reality much sooner than we think. But then, AI already knows that.

Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant, was a writer in the White House for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration.
ChatGPT already feared to be behind multiple cyberattacks

By Sead Fadilpašić published 2 days ago



IT leaders are fearful that ChatGPT, the instantly famous AI-powered chatbot, is already being used by state-sponsored threat actors when crafting cyberattacks.

A report from BlackBerry, which polled 500 IT decision-makers in the UK on their views of the revolutionary tech, found over three-quarters (76%) believe foreign states are already using ChatGPT in their cyber-warfare campaigns against other nations. Almost half (48%) believe 2023 is the year when we’ll be able to credit the technology with a successful cyberattack.

While this might sound like a standard case of rage against the machine, it’s far from it. Most respondents (60%) still see the tech as being put to use for “good” purposes, but at the same time 72% worry about potential misuse.

Improved phishing emails

They’re mostly fearful of cybercriminals using the AI-powered chatbot to craft believable phishing emails (57%), improve the sophistication of their attacks (51%) and accelerate new social engineering attacks (49%). Another 49% believe ChatGPT could be leveraged to spread misinformation, while 47% see it as a good tool for hackers to gain new skills and improve.

> Hackers are using ChatGPT to write malware

> ChatGPT won't make you lose your job - here's why

But if AI can be used in offense, it can be used in defense, too. That’s why almost four in five (78%) of the respondents plan on investing in AI-powered cybersecurity in the next two years, with 44% planning on doing so this year. Almost all (88%) expect the government to step in and regulate the use of the tech, too.

“It’s been well documented that people with malicious intent are testing the waters but, over the course of this year, we expect to see hackers get a much better handle on how to use ChatGPT successfully for nefarious purposes; whether as a tool to write better mutable malware(opens in new tab) or as an enabler to bolster their ‘skillset’,” commented Shishir Singh, Chief Technology Officer, Cybersecurity at BlackBerry.

“Both cyber pros and hackers will continue to look into how they can utilize it best. Time will tell who’s more effective.”