N. Korea’s Hacking Groups

#Korea, Today and Tomorrow l 2023-09-20

ⓒ Getty Images Bank

North Korea is continuing with its military provocations. 

Starting with its missile launch at the break of 2023, North Korea has fired missiles on more than 20 occasions so far this year. But the country is posing an even graver threat. 

North Korea is frequently carrying out hacking operations in cyber space. It attempted to launch a malicious cyber attack targeting the South Korea-U.S. combined military exercise that was held last month. What kinds of groups are responsible for North Korea’s hacking attacks and why is the country resorting to cyber operations? 

Today, we’ll analyze North Korea’s hacking groups with Professor Jeong Eun Chan at the National Institute for Unification Education. 

The South Korean government announced unilateral sanctions on a North Korean hacking group called “Kimsuky” on June 2, two days after North Korea launched a projectile carrying its military reconnaissance satellite. 

Significantly, the measure marks the world’s first unilateral sanctions against the North Korean hacking group. What is “Kimsuky” and why did the Seoul government take such action? 

Kimsuky has been behind major cyber attacks in South Korea and Western countries including the U.S. for more than ten years. The hacking group would often impersonate famous people to steal information from South Korean public institutions as well as experts in the fields of cryptocurrency, diplomacy and security. 

North Korea’s Reconnaissance General Bureau has specialists in cyber operation. Under the country’s intelligence agency, the 3rd bureau known as the Technical Reconnaissance Bureau and Lab 110 are assumed to direct North Korea’s hacking groups. Kimsuky is also known to belong to the Reconnaissance General Bureau. 

Since 2010, the Kimsuky group has launched hacking attacks on South Korean government agencies and relevant organizations, including the Ministry of National Defense and the Ministry of Unification. 

“Kimsuky” was named by a Russian security firm, while it was tracking a cyber attack by hackers seemingly based in North Korea. The group is notorious for its hacking attack on Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power in South Korea in 2014. Last year, it even impersonated a South Korean National Assembly member to send phishing emails. 

I was stunned by the sophisticated nature of the scheme. At first, I thought that my office had sent the emails, so I asked my aides to check the message. 

Kimsuky sent emails to foreign affairs and national security experts in the name of the office of Thae Yong-ho, a North Korean diplomat defector-turned-South Korean lawmaker. In doing so, the hacking group monitored online communications and provided the information to the North Korean government. 

Other than Kimsuky, there are many more North Korean hacking groups that steal intelligence through cyber attacks. 

It seems there are numerous hacking groups associated with North Korea. They include APT 38, Temp.Hermit, Hidden Cobra, Reaper, which is also known as APT 37, Group 123, Nickel Academy and Lazarus. Lazarus, in particular, is infamous for hacking financial institutions around the world. In 2016, the group stole 81 million US dollars from the central bank of Bangladesh. 

North Korea’s hacking groups belong to the country’s military or the communist party. 15 to 20 hacking teams are known to be working at the Technical Reconnaissance Bureau alone, which is tasked with computer hacking. 

The Lazarus Group, among others, made the international community very nervous. The group hacked into Sony Pictures Entertainment in 2014, in response to the American film company’s movie about the fictional assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. 

In 2016, Lazarus hacked 101 million dollars deposited at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York account belonging to Bangladesh’s central bank and stole 81 million dollars. These incidents show North Korea’s hacking capabilities have reached a significant level. The country continues to use intelligent and advanced hacking methods. 

North Korean hackers carry out hacking operations targeting specific individuals or institutions in a certain period of time. When their mission is over, they are deployed to different teams for new operations. They set up cyber operation bases, disguised as trade firms, in Chinese cities such as Shenyang, Guangzhou and Dalian as well as in Mongolia and Indonesia. 

Through indiscriminative hacking attempts, North Korean hacking group Kimsuky secured 326 servers in 26 countries to launder Internet Protocol or IP addresses. They use the laundered IP addresses to send out phishing emails disguised as lawmakers’ offices, government agencies or reporters. The emails have malicious programs attached or direct readers to a phishing website that is linked to the message. Once the readers click on the programs or the link, hacking starts. 

In terms of hacking ability, experts evaluate that North Korea ranks third in the world, following the U.S. and Russia. It is assumed that North Korean hacking groups have launched cyber attacks in at least 29 countries for the last 14 years. Apart from the high number of attacks, North Korea’s hacking schemes are widespread, regardless of areas, such as subways, aerospace, nuclear energy and bio-related industries. The purpose is to steal information and disrupt society. In 2021, Reuters reported that North Korean hackers secretly breached computer networks at a missile developing company in Russia, which is North Korea’s traditional ally. 

North Korea is a communist dictatorship that is isolated from the outside world. It is known as an impoverished state suffering from the lack of goods. However, the country’s hacking units relentlessly infiltrate computer systems all around the world. How is that possible? 

It is said that North Korea began to reinforce its cyber forces in the mid-1980s. It tried to foster them in order to overcome military and economic inferiority. The country founded Mirim College in 1986 as a place to train cyber operation specialists. In the 1990s, the North began to teach information technology to gifted children, improving the conditions for strengthening cyber forces. Hackers are trained from early on. Science prodigies are educated at Pyongyang Senior Middle School No.1 or Kumsong School. They are then nurtured as cyber warriors at Mirim College, Kim Il-sung University or Kim Chaek University of Technology. 

Since the years of former leader Kim Jong-il, North Korea has intensively fostered hackers, in the belief that hacking is the most effective means of attack, considering the initial cost of investment. 

Former leader Kim Jong-il instructed officials to provide IT education to gifted children at the national level. Talented students selected from elementary schools nationwide receive extensive computer education, including algorithm design and programming, at schools for science prodigies. Among them, excellent students are admitted to university to learn more advanced skills. North Korean students have actually proved their outstanding computer programmer skills at international competitions. 

North Korean students trained as cyber warriors often take part in international events. This year, North Korean university students took top four spots at a hacking contest hosted by HackerEarth, a company based in San Francisco in the U.S. At the competition, students from Kim Chaek University of Technology came in first, third and fourth, while a student from Kim Il-sung University took second place. The Kim Chaek University of Technology said on its website that its student won the contest with a perfect score of 800. Again, North Korean students swept the top four places in the hacking competition, where some 1,700 people participated. 

North Korean university students who are raised as cyber warriors receive overseas training in China or Russia. When the training is over, they are deployed to hacking units to participate in North Korea’s global cyber operations. So, why is the North nurturing hackers at the state level? 

In North Korea, hacking operations are led by the state. The purpose is to continue with espionage activities and to earn foreign currency. With the money it stole through hacking, the country enhances its cyber warfare capabilities, develops missiles and raises professional hackers. 

North Korea’s three-pillared military strategy consists of preemptive, surprise attack, quick decisive war, and mixed tactics. In mixed tactics, North Korea seeks to make attacks both in the frontline and in the rear. While regular forces attack the front, others are supposed to harass the enemy’s rear by digging underground tunnels. But now, North Korea is preparing for cyber warfare so it can disrupt the rear at the click of a button. With that purpose in mind, it uses hacking. 

North Korea operates hacking units to raise funds and gather intelligence for regime maintenance. It created a new phrase “cyber foreign currency income” in 2015, indicating that its hackers are engaging in all sorts of illegal activities as an important means of earning foreign currency. The issue of North Korea’s cryptocurrency thefts was mentioned by U.S. officials during a recent congressional hearing. 

 

Democratic politician Elizabeth Warren said that North Korean hackers have raised over three billion dollars from crypto heists over the past five years. About 50 percent of them are assumed to have been used to procure parts needed for nuclear and missile development. 

Amid the prolonged international sanctions and economic difficulties, North Korea is likely to boost its hacking capabilities even further. 

Under Kim Jong-un’s rule, North Korea has focused on developing its cyber war capabilities. On top of economic benefits from its hacking operations, the country is expanding its cyber attacks to governments, military organizations, defense industries and energy research institutes overseas in order to collect military and diplomatic information more extensively. That’s why the U.S., the EU and the U.N. continue to slap sanctions on North Korea’s hacking groups and malicious cyber actors. 

The South Korean government is preparing for training aimed at responding to cyber terrorism effectively. South Korea and the U.S. have discussed ways to deal with North Korea’s cyber attacks through bilateral cooperation. These efforts will lead to stronger, strategic cooperation between the allies in cyber security, and South Korea is expected to strengthen its cyber response capabilities

Kim Jong-un once stressed that cyber warfare, along with nuclear weapons and missiles, is an all-purpose sword that guarantees the North Korean People’s Armed Forces’ striking ability. As the leader’s remarks indicate, North Korea uses its cyber capabilities to steal confidential information as well as assets from other countries. 

The international community needs to seek closer cooperation and make greater efforts to prevent state-sponsored North Korean hackers from engaging in illicit cyber activities. 

HACKING INCREASED AFTER EDGAR SCHMIDT'S VISIT IN 2014

TURKIYE'S CLIENT STATE: AZERBAIJAN

Armenia braces for mass exodus of Nagorno-Karabakh inhabitants

ETHNIC CLEANSING BY ANY OTHER NAME

Huge queues of cars are leaving the territory in the direction of Armenia.

By bne IntelliNews

 September 25, 2023

The ethnic Armenian inhabitants of the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which surrendered to Azerbaijan last Wednesday, are in mass flight to Armenia.

Social media carried photos of huge queues of cars leaving the territory in the direction of Armenia. Armenia's government said that almost 6,500 refugees had entered the country by 5pm local time on September 25.

Refugees are fleeing from areas occupied by Azerbaijani forces, as well as from areas that are poised to be occupied by them, in what risks becoming a humanitarian disaster.

“There are no words to describe [it],” one refugee told the Associated Press about their plight. “The village was heavily shelled. Almost no one is left in the village.”

In a statement the US government said it was “deeply concerned about reports on the humanitarian conditions in Nagorno-Karabakh and calls for unimpeded access for international humanitarian organisations and commercial traffic”.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had advised the territory’s 120,000 residents last week not to leave but thousands have begun a mass exodus along the Lachin Corridor to Armenia rather than risk living under Azerbaijani rule. The road, which Azerbaijan has been blocking since December, is the territory’s only link with the outside world.

In an address on September 24, Pashinyan – who is facing huge domestic criticism and protests over the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh – said Azerbaijan was planning ethnic cleansing, and he admitted that a mass exodus now looked inevitable. Space for 40,000 people from Karabakh had been prepared in Armenia, Reuters reported.

"If proper conditions are not created for the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to live in their homes and there are no effective protection mechanisms against ethnic cleansing, the likelihood is rising that the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh will see exile from their homeland as the only way to save their lives and identity," he said.

There were more demonstrations against Pashinyan on September 25 with more than 200 protesters detained.

Nagorno-Karabakh won self-rule in the early 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union but its declaration of independence has never been internationally recognised, even by Armenia. Its position was severely weakened in 2020 when Azerbaijan retook much of its lost territory.

Under the ceasefire Nagorno-Karabakh forces have begun handing in their arms after their surrender on Wednesday last week after a sudden 24-hour offensive by Azerbaijani forces. On the Nagorno-Karabakh side more than 200 people were killed and 400 were wounded in the Azerbaijani attack. Baku has not released casualty figures.

Ethnic Armenian residents of the territory lost in 2020 fled their homes and now many residents of the remaining rump statelet are expected to follow them.

"Ninety-nine point nine per cent prefer to leave our historic lands," David Babayan, an adviser to Nagorno-Karabakh’s’ president Samvel Shahramanyan told Reuters.

"The fate of our poor people will go down in history as a disgrace and a shame for the Armenian people and for the whole civilised world," Babayan said. "Those responsible for our fate will one day have to answer before God for their sins."

Nagorno-Karabakh leaders have said that all those wanting to leave the territory would be escorted to Armenia by Russian peacekeepers. Several thousand of those displaced by the recent fighting are already camped at the main airport, the base for the peacekeepers.

Talks on guarantees for the residents are continuing between Azerbaijani officials and representatives of the Nagorno-Karabakh government. Baku has pledged to respect the rights of the inhabitants of its breakaway region. Azerbaijan dictator Ilham Aliyev has said that the region would be turned into a "paradise". Baku has also begun to allow humanitarian aid to enter the territory, after blocking shipments for nine months.

However, these statements are widely dismissed because of Azerbaijan’s previous behaviour and its repression of dissent at home.

There is widespread fear that Azerbaijani forces will expel ethnic Armenians and will make reprisals against those who took part in the fighting over the past three decades, and those who led them. In recent weeks some ethnic Armenians who travelled through the Azerbaijani checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor have been arrested.

Hikmet Hajiyev, an adviser to Aliyev, told the Financial Times that Baku plans to fully absorb and integrate Nagorno-Karabakh, giving it no special autonomous status within Azerbaijan. He also said Baku was planning an “amnesty” for all Nagorno-Karabakh residents who served in separatist forces or with the Armenian army but that would not extend to “criminals, who have . . . used crimes against humanity and war crimes against Azerbaijani civilians. That is a separate story.”

Nagorno-Karabakh's 120,000 Armenians will leave for Armenia, leadership says

Sky News
Updated Sun, September 24, 2023 


Almost all the 120,000 Armenians living in war-torn Nagorno-Karabakh will leave for Armenia, the region's de-facto leadership has said, after Azerbaijan regained control of the breakaway region.

The Armenians of Karabakh were forced to declare a ceasefire on Wednesday as Azeri forces reclaimed the territory following a 24-hour offensive.

The US and EU have expressed "deep concerns" for the Armenians in Karabakh, which is recognised internationally as part of Azerbaijan but had been under Armenian control since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Armenians say they fear repression and ethnic cleansing - allegations strongly denied by Azerbaijan.

David Babayan, an adviser to Samvel Shahramanyan, the president of the self-styled Republic of Artsakh, which is the Armenian name for the region, has warned of a mass exodus and says his people will not be part of Azerbaijan.

"Our people do not want to live as part of Azerbaijan, 99.9% prefer to leave our historic lands," he said. "The fate of our poor people will go down in history as a disgrace and a shame for the Armenian people and for the whole civilised world."

He said it was unclear when the Armenians would move down the Lachin corridor, which links the territory to Armenia, where Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has faced calls to resign for failing to save Karabakh.

Meanwhile, long-awaited aid has arrived in the region following a nine-month blockade imposed by Azerbaijan, which dwindled the Armenians' food, fuel and medical supplies.

Azerbaijan has repeatedly said no harm will come to civilians - though reports suggest some may have died and residential buildings were damaged during the latest attack.

The country's ambassador to the UK, Elin Suleymanov, rejected claims his country would "ethnically cleanse" the region.

He told Sky News: "That is completely untrue. First, you don't offer food and aid to people you are planning to ethnically cleanse.

"Second, it was Armenia that committed ethnic cleansing in the 1990s. The reason there are only Armenians living in the region today is because the Armenians ethnically cleansed everyone else. It was a diverse region before the 1990s.

"We don't want to do what they did to us, we want to integrate that community into the diverse fabric of Azerbaijani society."

Asked if there could be peace, he said: "Of course there can be peace, there was peace in Europe after the Second World War, people nuked each other and now they are still friends."

The military offensive exacerbated problems for the population there, with many said to be sleeping outdoors and unable to get in touch with family and friends in rural areas.

The potential exodus from Karabakh marks another twist in the region's tumultuous and bloody history, with both Armenians and Azerbaijanis suffering greatly over the years.

Read more:
Azerbaijan claims full control of Nagorno-Karabakh
Protests in Armenia after dozens killed in Azerbaijan military offensive

Hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis were displaced following the first war between 1988-1994, which saw Armenian forces take control of the region and occupy surrounding areas.

The fate of the conflict's latest displaced people remains unclear, but Mr Pashinyan said in an address to the nation on Sunday that Armenia is ready to accept all compatriots from Karabakh.

Armenian PM says Armenians may flee Karabakh and blames Russia

Reuters
Updated Sun, September 24, 2023 

MOSCOW, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Sunday the likelihood was rising that ethnic Armenians would flee the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh and blamed Russia for failing to ensure Armenian security.

If 120,000 people go down the Lachin corridor to Armenia, the small South Caucasian country could face both a humanitarian and political crisis.

"If proper conditions are not created for the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to live in their homes and there are no effective protection mechanisms against ethnic cleansing, the likelihood is rising that the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh will see exile from their homeland as the only way to save their lives and identity," Pashinyan said in address to the nation.

"Responsibility for such a development of events will fall entirely on Azerbaijan, which adopted a policy of ethnic cleansing, and on the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh," he said, according to a government transcript.

He added that the Armenian-Russian strategic partnership was "not enough to ensure the external security of Armenia".

Last week, Azerbaijan scored a victory over ethnic Armenians who have controlled the Karabakh region since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. An adviser to the leader of the Karabakh Armenians told Reuters earlier on Sunday that the population would leave because they feel unsafe under Azerbaijani rule.

Russia had acted as guarantor for a peace deal that ended a 44-day war in Karabakh three years ago, and many Armenians blame Moscow for failing to protect the region.

Russian officials say Pashinyan is to blame for his own mishandling of the crisis, and have repeatedly said that Armenia, which borders Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan and Georgia, has few other friends in the region.

"The government will accept our brothers and sisters from Nagorno-Karabakh with full care," Pashinyan said.

Pashinyan has warned that some unidentified forces were seeking to stoke a coup against him and has accused Russian media of engaging in an information war against him.

"Some of our partners are increasingly making efforts to expose our security vulnerabilities, putting at risk not only our external, but also internal security and stability, while violating all norms of etiquette and correctness in diplomatic and interstate relations, including obligations assumed under treaties," Pashinyan said in his Sunday address.

"In this context, it is necessary to transform, complement and enrich the external and internal security instruments of the Republic of Armenia," he said.

 (Writing by Guy Faulconbridge Editing by Peter Graff)

Fleeing bombs and death, Karabakh Armenians recount visceral fear and hunger




Refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh arrive at Armenian checkpoint in Kornidzor

By Felix Light
Sun, September 24, 2023

GORIS, Armenia (Reuters) - After the village was bombed so hard there was no way to bury the truckloads of dead, he fled with his family and stuffed whatever possessions could be salvaged into two vans.

Petya Grigoryan is one of the first ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to make it to Armenia after a lightning 24-hour Azerbaijani military operation defeated the Karabakh Armenian forces.

The ethnic Armenians of Karabakh, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, say they will not live as part of Azerbaijan and that almost all of the 120,000 Armenians there will leave for Armenia.

So far several hundred have reached Armenia.

Grigoryan, a 69-year-old driver, said his Kochoghot village in what the Armenians know as the Martakert district of Karabakh was pummelled by Azerbaijan armed forces. There were two KAMAZ-truckloads full of civilian dead in the village, he said.

"There was nowhere to bury them," Grigoryan told Reuters after making his way down the Lachin corridor and across the border into Armenia, where Reuters interviewed him and other refugees in the border town of Goris.

"We took what we could and left. We don’t know where we’re going. We have nowhere to go," he said.

Of the 500 villagers, he said 40 had got out.

Reuters was unable to independently verify his account but it chimed with the outline given by other ethnic Armenians fleeing Karabakh, which Azerbaijan says will be turned into a "paradise" and fully integrated.

Azerbaijan said it launched the operation against Karabakh forces after attacks on its own citizens. President Ilham Aliyev said his army had only targeted Karabakh fighters and that civilians had been protected.

STRICT ORDER

"Before the operation, I once again gave a strict order to all our military units that the Armenian population living in the Karabakh region should not be affected by the anti-terrorist measures and that the civilian population be protected," he said in an address to the nation on Sept. 20.

"Civilians felt protected entirely thanks to the professionalism of our armed forces," he said.

Grigoryan and thousands of other Armenians made their way to the airport near the Karabakh capital, known as Stepanakert by Armenians and Khankendi by Azerbaijan, where some Russian peacekeepers are based.

"It was scary there," he said. Thousands slept on the ground without food and little water. "There was nothing to eat or drink; three days without food," he said.

Nairy, a builder from Leninakan, Armenia, said he had been trapped in Karabakh since December by the blockade. Then the Azerbaijan military shelled the Shosh village where he was staying.

"The kids were injured. We sat in the basements until the peacekeepers came in and took the people out," he said.

He too had made his way to the airport.

"We are extremely grateful to the lads for sharing their rations with the kids," he said. "The Russian peacekeepers went hungry to give the kids their rations."

At the airport, he said, there were thousands sleeping outside.

(Writing by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by David Holmes)

Russia's Lavrov says Armenia, Azerbaijan have settled Karabakh dispute

UNITED NATIONS, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in a speech at the U.N. General Assembly on Saturday that time was ripe for trust-building measures between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, and that Moscow's troops would help that.

Lavrov accused the West of trying to force themselves as mediators between the two countries, which he said was not needed.

"Yerevan and Baku actually did settle the situation," Lavrov said. "Time has come for mutual trust-building. There are Russian troops who will certainly help this," he said via translation.

Russia has peace-keeping missions in Nagorno-Karabakh, a separatist Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan where Baku launched an offensive this week.

The ethnic Armenian leadership of breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh said on Saturday that the terms of their ceasefire with Azerbaijan were being implemented, with work proceeding on the delivery of humanitarian aid and evacuation of the wounded.

 (Reporting by Michelle Nichols, Writing by Gabriela Baczynska)

The fall of Nagorno-Karabakh
In a sense, all of this was expected. Nagorno-Karabakh and its ally, Armenia, had suffered a devastating defeat in the 2020 war.

By Neil Hauer in Yerevan September 23, 2023

After 32 years, the de facto independence of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh is reaching its end.

The tense and often-violated ceasefire that had governed the region since the end of the 2020 Second Karabakh War was overwhelmingly violated by Azerbaijan around 1pm local time on Tuesday. Azerbaijani military units, which had been gathering near the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh and on the borders of Armenia for weeks, launched a massive assault across all areas of the Nagorno-Karabakh frontline.

Artillery, precision missile strikes and airstrikes struck the beleaguered units of the Artsakh Defence Army, as the breakaway region’s military forces are known, while Azerbaijani infantry launched an offensive on the ground.

24 hours later, it was all over. Weakened by nine months of siege and starvation, without any supply lines to the outside world and hopelessly outmatched by Azerbaijan’s modern military, the president of the Republic of Artsakh, Samvel Shahramanyan, announced that his government had accepted the demands of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The Artsakh Defence Army would be dissolved, its weapons would be handed over, and the region would, finally and definitively, come under Azerbaijani control.

In a sense, all of this was expected. Nagorno-Karabakh and its ally, Armenia, had suffered a devastating defeat in the 2020 war. Much of Nagorno-Karabakh had been captured – around 75% of the lands held by Karabakh Armenians before 2020 were conquered by Azerbaijan or ceded to them in the ceasefire agreement. The Armenian army, reeling from its losses, had been forced out of the conflict, left struggling to repel even the Azerbaijani incursions into Armenia itself.

The nine months of Azerbaijani blockade that began in December 2022 had been met with indifference from the international community, with ‘urges’ and ‘calls’ for Azerbaijan to reopen the Lachin Corridor – Nagorno-Karabakh’s single lifeline to the outside world – but no consequences when Azerbaijan refused to do so, ignoring even the International Court of Justice ruling on the matter.

The Russian peacekeeping mission, entrusted with ensuring that road remained open and active, similarly demurred from any real attempts to unblock it. Aliyev clearly read these signals – that there would be no consequences for violating yet another tenet of the 2020 ceasefire – and sent his army in for the kill.

Massive casualties

At the time of writing, so much is still unclear. The 24-hour war involved massive casualties: Nagorno-Karabakh’s authorities have confirmed over 200 dead and 400 wounded from their side, a number that is sure to rise as more bodies are found, while Azerbaijani social media reports place the number of Azerbaijan casualties at over 150.

What exactly happens next is anyone’s guess, including the people of Nagorno-Karabakh themselves. In the wake of the Azerbaijani assault and subsequent capture of numerous villages and key roads, tens of thousands of the region’s 120,000 inhabitants have been displaced. Stepanakert is overrun, with every public building hosting dozens of families; the city’s airport, the site of the main Russian peacekeeping base, is an even more dire site, with thousands of civilians now encamped there in the open air, having fled from the Azerbaijani soldiers who captured their villages.

Other areas are entirely isolated: the towns of Martuni and Martakert, Nagorno-Karabakh’s second- and third-largest settlements, are surrounded by Azerbaijani forces, their populations unable to escape and with little known about their condition.

In this near-total information blackout, with no independent media access and limited internet connectivity, rumors of Azerbaijani atrocities have spread. One woman claimed that Azerbaijani troops had beheaded her three young children in front of her; another said that the same had happened to a Karabakh Armenian soldier. A woman named Sofik, from the Karabakh village of Sarnaghbyur, described in video testimony how Azerbaijani artillery bombardment of her village had killed at least five children and wounded 13 more.

There is little verification or ability to confirm these claims, but there is ample precedent for them: Azerbaijani troops have previously filmed themselves beheading elderly Karabakh Armenian civilians, have executed groups of POWs, and indiscriminately bombarded Karabakh settlements. In the coming days, videos of atrocities committed over the past few days are likely to come to light.

The ultimate fate of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh is similarly unclear. While Azerbaijani officials have said that civilians will be allowed to stay there unharmed, few, if any, of the locals believe them.

Armenian Prime Nikol Pashinyan stated in a speech on Thursday that a mass evacuation was “not plan A nor plan B,” and that he hoped the Karabakh Armenians would still be able to live a “safe and dignified” life there, but that Armenia was ready and able to accept 40,000 families if the need arose.

More despair than revolution

The view of Nagorno-Karabakh’s residents is a sharply different one. Ashot Gabrielyan, a local teacher who has documented life in Nagorno-Karabakh under the blockade, summed up the local community’s views in an Instagram post on Friday. “We, the people in Artsakh, need a humanitarian corridor to leave [to Armenia],” he wrote. “We are not ready to live with a country [Azerbaijan] which starved us, then killed us. We NEED to leave.”

The catastrophic situation has understandably led to political unrest in Armenia itself. On Tuesday night, as the Azerbaijani offensive into Nagorno-Karabakh was still going strong, thousands gathered in Yerevan’s Republic Square, a common spot for demonstrations in the capital. The clashes reached a rare level of violence, with police deploying stun grenades against the crowd at one point; 16 policemen and 18 civilians were wounded in the event.

But the mood was more despair than revolution. While many of those in attendance demanded the resignation of the government, few had any suggestions for what should be done differently.

“Nikol [Pashinyan] led us to this horrible situation, this catastrophe,” said Tigran, one of those in attendance. “He must resign.” Another attendee, Daniella, a 20-year old student from Nagorno-Karabakh, had a different take. “I don’t know what [the government] can even do [about this],” she said. “My family are still there [in Karabakh] and I’m very worried for them, but I don’t know that violence here [in Yerevan] will help anything,” she said.

The public paralysation is exacerbated by Russia, which has come out staunchly against the Armenian government and sought to pin the entire blame for the present tragedy in Nagorno-Karabakh on Pashinyan. A series of Kremlin media guidelines for Russian state media was leaked to the Russian opposition outlet Meduza, in which Russian government publications are instructed to blame the Azerbaijani assault on “Armenia and its Western partners”.

Mass public outrage at Russia and its absent peacekeepers in both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh has been fanned further by posts by top Russian propagandists such as Margarita Simonyan and Vladimir Solovyov, who shared identical Telegram posts suggesting that Armenians should overthrow the Pashinyan government.

Armenian journalist Samson Martirosyan summed up the mood succinctly in a Twitter post. “Most people in Armenia don’t know what to do, caught between Pashinyan and [the] opposition. By going to protests, you would stir up chaos, which serves Russia and Azerbaijan. Not going would mean silently agreeing with Pashinyan’s disastrous policies,” Martirosyan wrote.

Meanwhile, the 120,000 inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh await the outcome of the surrender negotiations currently taking place between their leadership and that of Azerbaijan in the Azerbaijani city of Yevlakh.

There are few reasons for optimism: Nagorno-Karabakh presidential advisor David Babayan said on Friday that there were “no concrete results” from Baku on either security guarantees for the population of Karabakh or regarding amnesty for its soldiers and leaders, all of whom Azerbaijan regards as criminals and terrorists.

The Azerbaijani army currently sits at the entrances to Stepanakert, poised to enter. It is difficult to imagine the scenes that will result when that happens.

EU reaction to Azerbaijan attack on Nagorno-Karabakh muted by growing dependence on Azeri gas

Azerbaijan gas is proving to be crucial to the EU in its efforts to replace Russian gas exports.

By bne IntelliNews September 21, 2023


The Western reaction to Azerbaijan’s attack on Nagorno-Karabakh this week has been muted by its growing dependence on Azeri gas supplies.

Azerbaijan launched a so-called anti-terrorist operation in the enclave on September 19, shelling cities and towns that rapidly led to Nagorno-Karabakh’s surrender within 24 hours on September 20.

Thanks to the war in Ukraine, the EU has turned to Baku to replace the lost Russian gas deliveries. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travelled to Baku to sign a 10bn cubic metre gas supply deal last year as the EU scrambled to find new sources of gas.

“The European Union has therefore decided to diversify away from Russia and to turn towards more reliable, trustworthy partners. And I am glad to count Azerbaijan among them,” von der Leyen said in a speech to President Ilham Aliyev during her visit to Baku. “You are indeed a crucial energy partner for us and you have always been reliable.”

IEA chief Fatih Birol said at the time that new supplies of Azerbaijan still fall far short of being able to meet European demand for gas in the long term.

“It is categorically not enough to just rely on gas from non-Russian sources – these supplies are simply not available in the volumes required to substitute for missing deliveries from Russia,” Birol wrote in an article published by the IEA. “This will be the case even if gas supplies from Norway and Azerbaijan flow at maximum capacity.”

The gas deal doubled the supply of gas from Azerbaijan to the EU and committed to an expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) to deliver more gas in the future.

“This is already a very important supply route for the European Union, delivering currently more than 8 bcm of gas per year,” von der Leyen said in Baku. “And we will expand its capacity to 20 bcm in a few years. From [2023] on, we should already reach 12 bcm. This will help compensate for cuts in supplies of Russian gas and contribute significantly to Europe's security of supply.”



Azerbaijan’s oil and gas export pipeline routes to the West

Leyen’s deal and personal meeting with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev was heavily criticised by NGOs for ignoring Azerbaijan’s widespread human rights abuses and brutal authoritarian control of the country.

The attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, which technically belongs to Azerbaijan, but is almost entirely populated by Armenians, has also brought down international criticism, as it appears that Baku is attempting to retake control of the enclave, force the residents out and replace them with Azeris.

Europe gets around 3% of its gas from Azerbaijan. However, as Baku has been piping more gas west to the EU, it has also been importing more gas from Russia in the east, as its domestic gas production is insufficient both to meet domestic demand and its export commitments to the EU. The Azeri gas deal is in fact a backdoor route for Russian to continue its gas exports to Europe, in addition to the ongoing exports via Ukraine and Turkey.

Aliev has been able to take advantage of Armenia’s relative isolation to bring about the attack and recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia is supposed to provide security in the region under the terms of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), but has been passive in the dispute, distracted by its own war in Ukraine.

Experts fear ancient Cyrene ruins could collapse after Libya floods

“If water continues to flow in and remains trapped in the site, the retaining wall could collapse, taking with it a large chunk of the ruins,” Claudia Gazzini, Libya specialist at the International Crisis Group think tank, said.

Friday 22/09/2023

A view of ruins at the site of the ancient Greco-Roman city of Cyrene (Shahhat) in eastern Libya, about 60 kilometres west of Derna , in the aftermath of the devastation brought about the previous week by the Mediterranean storm Daniel. AFP

BENGHAZI Libya

Floods that killed thousands in the Libyan city of Derna also inundated one of the country’s premier ancient sites, threatening its UNESCO-listed monuments with collapse, a recent visitor and a leading archaeologist said.

The immediate damage to the monuments of Cyrene, which include the second century AD Temple of Zeus, bigger than the Parthenon in Athens, is relatively minor but the water circulating around their foundations threatens future collapses, the head of the French archaeological mission in Libya, Vincent Michel, told AFP.

Settled from the Greek island of Santorini around 600 BC, Cyrene was one of the leading centres of the Classical world for nearly a millennium before being largely abandoned following a major earthquake in 365 AD.

Its name lives on in Cyrenaica, the historical name for eastern Libya.

UNESCO declared its surviving monuments a World Heritage Site in 1982. When the overthrow of long-time ruler Muammar Gadhafi in a NATO-backed uprising ushered in years of conflict and neglect, UNESCO added the site to its World Heritage in Danger list in 2016.

According to Claudia Gazzini, Libya specialist at the International Crisis Group think tank, who recently visited the site, much of it remains waterlogged days after the torrential rains triggered by Storm Daniel on September 10 to 11.

In places, ancient walls have collapsed, blocking the water courses that would normally drain the sprawling site, which also boasts a necropolis outside its walls as large as the city itself.

“There’s a street lined by ancient walls that connects the upper and lower levels down which rainwater would normally escape but large boulders have fallen in, blocking the flow,”, Gazzini told AFP by telephone from Libya’s main eastern city of Benghazi.

“On the lower level, there’s also dirty water continuously bubbling out of the ground in the middle of the ruins,” she said, adding that neither residents of the adjacent village of Shahat nor an official from local antiquities division that she met there, could tell her where it was coming from.

“If water continues to flow in and remains trapped in the site, the retaining wall could collapse, taking with it a large chunk of the ruins,” she said.

• Foundations weakened

French archaeologist Michel, who knows the site well having worked ten years in another part of the area, said he had been able to analyse pictures of the monuments taken after the floods.

“For the moment, there’s no major destruction at Cyrene, the monuments are still standing,” he said.

“But the torrents of water, earth and rock have created gullies in the ancient streets, particularly the Royal Road, and the main damage is still to come as the water has spread over a wide area and has weakened the foundations of the monuments.

“Since the stone in the region is of poor quality, the monuments risk falling apart due to lack of good foundations,” he added.

The adjacent necropolis has been inundated by “hundreds of cubic metres of water which has shifted and submerged some of the tombs,” he added.

Michel said he was also concerned about the risks of looting in the aftermath of the floods, which killed more than 3,000 people and left tens of thousands homeless.

The site in the Jebel al-Ahkdar mountains, inland from the Mediterranean coast, is normally popular with visitors for its panoramic views. But Libyans have more pressing worries after the deadly floods.

Michel said his concerns had been partially allayed by the rapid mobilisation of Libya’s antiquities department, which had already sought help from the Italian archaeological mission in protecting Cyrene and from the French mission he heads in protecting two nearby sites.

The aim is to “join forces with the local authorities in coordination with UNESCO to raise the main points of weakness in the monuments and record any deterioration,” Michel said.

Actions should then be taken to repair the drainage of the site and shore up the monuments’ foundations.

PROFILE: Michal Simecka, leader of Progressive Slovakia

Michal Simecka: "Let us vote for the future".

By Robert Anderson in Bratislava September 22, 2023

 / bne IntelliNews

Michal Simecka was called back from Brussels by his Progressive Slovakia party to try to stop what looked like the inevitable return to power of populist strongman Robert Fico at next week’s election – and polls show that he might really pull it off.

Three-time premier Fico had looked down and out when he resigned after massive demonstrations following the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancé in 2018. His leftist Smer party, accused of presiding over a completely corrupted state apparatus, then split and failed to come first at the 2020 general election for the first time since 2006.

But the incompetence of the election winner, centre-right populist Igor Matovic, during the COVID-19 pandemic, together with coalition infighting and the ongoing cost of living crisis have brought Fico roaring back into first place in opinion polls with around 20%.

The liberal pro-EU Progressives, who narrowly failed to enter parliament in 2020, are now benefiting from not being part of that “coalition of chaos” and are just a few percentage points behind Smer in the latest opinion polls. There is a real hope that a late surge of support from the estimated one quarter of undecided voters could push the Progressives into first place on September 30, just like Matovic’s OLaNO last time around.

“It will be very narrow,” says Milan Nic, senior fellow at the German Council of Foreign Relations (DGAP). “It could be decided in the last two weeks.”

“There is a real chance of a bandwagon effect,” says Professor Tim Haughton of Birmingham University, who has just visited the country. “I would not be surprised if they do better than the polls indicate.”

Bratislava is currently full of billboards of the Progressives’ youthful (39-year-old) bearded leader and his wholesome family, urging Slovaks “to vote for the future”.

“In the final stretch it is a political confrontation of two visions of where Slovakia should be headed,” Simecka told bne IntelliNews in an interview in his Bratislava office. “Fico is promising a return to the past, retribution, a potential threat to the rule of law and international isolation.”

Simecka – who built up his profile in Slovakia while vice-president of the European Parliament through punchy interventions on social media – has performed better than expected in television debates, even if his sober style of argument often clashes with tub thumping political rivals (Matovic and Smer’s Robert Kalinak even thumped each other at a recent rally).

There now appears to be real excitement among the city’s liberal and relatively affluent young voters that Progressive Slovakia could win, even if many also fear that Simecka could be outfoxed by the veteran Fico, who has dominated the country’s politics for nearly 20 years.

Beefy populism

Simecka is an unlikely politician not just because of his relative youth but because of his background and politics. In a country that over the past 34 years of democracy has habitually backed beefy populists who claim to stand for the ordinary man, his liberal views and academic experience stand out. He comes from a famous family of dissident writers, has a PhD from Oxford, and worked as a foreign policy wonk and journalist before entering politics (full disclosure: he was my colleague 20 years ago).

He also does not dominate his party as Slovak leaders customarily do, and only became chairman and the Progressive candidate for premier in May last year as the party had no-one else who fancied the job.

“One of his weaknesses is that he does not have any executive experience,” says Haughton. “Vice president of the EU parliament counts for virtually nothing here. Is he up to being PM will be the question on many people’s minds.”

Another weakness is that his party is widely dismissed as a Bratislava liberal club with little reach outside the capital. Slovakia suffers from deep regional inequalities and booming Bratislava is a world away from the grim towns and dusty villages in central and eastern parts of the country.

Slovaks in those regions have recently been hit by first the pandemic and then soaring prices, and have long had a weakness (worsened by disinformation) for populist strongmen promising stability, order, and a strong state.

“There is a problem that Progressive Slovakia is seen as very much a Bratislava party and a party of the young,” says Haughton. “Its appeal outside these groups is more limited.”

Nic argues that its free market economic programme has little appeal for poorer voters, and the inclusion of promises such as registered same-sex partnerships does not go down well in the more conservative rural areas. The party also has a strong green focus, and some members have publicly backed liberalisation of drugs.

“They are limiting their appeal to urban areas,” says Nic. “They are playing into the hands of Fico and Smer who are framing them as radicals”.

Michal Vasecka, head of the Bratislava Policy Institute think-tank concurs. “Honestly they are too modern for Slovakia,” he says. “Progressive Slovakia is viewed as too radical.”

Simecka is unapologetic. “We are a liberal party and that is the way it is. We believe in [sexual] equality and that is who we are,” he says. “The thing that people need to realise is that Slovakia is an outlier in the EU. Many EU states have not just civil partnerships but same-sex marriages.”

Binary choice

Even the party’s closest potential allies have turned on them in the heat of the campaign, damning them as too radical, as their own ratings dribble away.

Christian Democrat leader Milan Majerský said the Progressives were "in many ways" a threat because of their gender policies.

The libertarian Freedom and Solidarity Party (SaS) has also recently attacked the “neo-Marxist” Progressives. A top SaS party official told bne IntelliNews that there were deep economic policy differences between the parties that were not always reflected in the Progressives’ programme.

“We don’t know what to expect from them,” he said, casting doubt on their pledge not to raise taxes to close the yawning budget deficit. “They don’t mean it. Their experts say there must be tax hikes. We will ask for more budget cuts but they will not be willing to do this.”

The smaller centre-right parties blame Simecka for trying to make the election a binary choice between the Progressives and Fico. This could firm up Smer’s support and push the smaller parties below the 5% threshold, leaving the Progressives bereft of allies.

“Progressive Slovakia is playing on the fear of Fico and portraying themselves as the alternative,” says Nic. “The strong polarisation between Smer and PS is not good for small parties.”

Even if the seats are there to form a government, and the Progressives can reach a compromise with the Christian Democrats and SaS, they are likely to need at least two more parties to achieve a majority. Building and holding such a government together will be a huge test of Simecka’s leadership skills, and could end in another fiasco for the Slovak centre-right, which is riven with personal antagonisms.

Simecka puts on a brave face. “My experience is from the European Parliament, where you have to work with people who you don’t necessarily agree with…. It’s about dialogue and respect for your partners. Of course it’s not going to be easy but I think it is the best possible path for our future.”

Insiders say that comparing the European Parliament to the snake pit of Slovak politics is naïve.

“Michael Simecka does not know what he has got himself into and what to do about it,” one former senior official in the recently collapsed centre-right government told bne IntelliNews. “He will come face to face with the thick wall of Slovak political reality.”

Nasty compromises

That reality is that he will need at least two parties from what he says are not his preferred partners, each with their own drawbacks.

Matovic’s OLaNO should be an obvious partner but his erratic behaviour as premier will make him virtually the last choice.

Boris Kollar’s rightwing populist We are Family party is even more traditional on “family issues” than the Catholic Christian Democrats, despite Kollar’s 13 children from 11 different women. Kollar has said that joining with Progressive Slovakia would be his last option and that Simecka would be a “disaster” as premier.

The fate of Slovakia may come down to former premier Robert Pellegrini’s centre-left Hlas party, which is running third in the opinion polls at around 13%.

Pellegrini, who took over as premier from Fico when he resigned but then formed his own party before the election, had indicated he would prefer to work with the Progressives but he has been more ambivalent in recent weeks as his poll support has weakened. "We are fundamentally different and it's probably hard to come to an agreement," he said recently.

Political analysts suggest that Hlas could split if Pellegrini forms a coalition with the centre-right, who distrust him anyway, and he might therefore choose to ally again with Fico, perhaps in return for a clear run for the presidency next year.

“I still have a hidden hope that Progressive Slovakia will win,” says Beata Balagova, editor of the Sme daily. “But if Fico loses it will be a nasty compromise,” she warns, “and we will be in the hands of Pellegrini

Russia May Be About to Get a New Friendly Leader in Europe

Andrea Dudik and Daniel Hornak
Sun, September 24, 2023 



(Bloomberg) -- When Slovakia’s longest-serving prime minister was forced out of office in 2018 following the biggest mass protests since the communist era, he grinned and vowed that he’d be back. Few, though, took him seriously.

Robert Fico saw his closest ally defect to form a new party, prosecutors seek to put him and his associates behind bars for alleged corruption and his Smer party collapse to a record low in opinion polls. Yet reaction to the war in Ukraine has created a path back to power that would further test the European Union’s ability to remain united against Russian belligerence, even more so after Poland’s recent spat with Kyiv.

Slovaks will vote on Sept. 30 in a tight election, and Fico has tapped into concerns over the fallout from the conflict. In a country of 5.4 million people who are the most pro-Russian in the region, he has vowed to end military aid to Ukraine, called Slovakia’s president an “American agent” and opposes NATO membership for its war-ravaged neighbor.

“Fico has no problem crossing red lines,” said Boris Zala, a Smer co-founder who now works on policy papers for think tank Progressive Forum in Bratislava. “He will do anything to win more votes.”

A member of the 27-nation EU, the euro region and NATO, Slovakia matters politically. It’s also sandwiched between Hungary, run by disruptor-in-chief Viktor Orban, and Poland, whose ruling nationalist Law & Justice Party is aiming to win a third-straight election on Oct. 15.

The three countries have angered Kyiv by pushing to extend a ban on Ukrainian grain imports to protect their farmers, something Fico said last week he would continue if he were to win power. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki had escalated the quarrel by saying his country halted arms shipments to Ukraine, before government officials walked back the remarks.

Slovakia has generally remained steadfast on its support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, even as successive surveys showed that more than half of Slovaks blame the West or Ukraine for the war.

The country still sent weapons eastward, accommodated more than 100,000 Ukrainian refugees and backed all sanctions on Russia even though the move had a direct effect on its energy supplies.

The return of Fico, 59, could quickly change that, bringing into question Slovakia’s cooperation with NATO given his fierce criticism of the alliance and the US. It would also boost the influence of Orban, who has opposed sanctions and weapons deliveries.

Fico hasn’t always been such a wildcard for Europe. Under his leadership, Slovakia joined the euro in 2009, its economy underpinned by an automotive industry that made the country one of the world’s biggest per-capita car producers. He also considered former German Chancellor Angela Merkel an ally.

The question is whether the next incarnation of his premiership would see a throwback to when Slovakia was more in the European wilderness, especially as he may have to bring in the far-right to form a majority government.

“Fico’s goals will trigger opposition and dissent abroad, and that could lead to Slovakia’s isolation,” said Grigorij Meseznikov, the president of the Institute for Public Affairs think tank, who has followed the nation’s politics for over 30 years. While still remaining in the EU, he will pull Slovakia “outside the European mainstream,” he said.

Victory isn’t a done deal. Smer has about 20% support in opinion polls, giving it an advantage of three percentage points over its main rival, the Progressive Slovakia party led by Michal Simecka. That lead — in a fragmented political landscape where smaller parties will ultimately play kingmaker — has gradually narrowed from five points points in March.

Following the dissolution of Czechoslovakia in 1993, Slovakia diverged from the rest of the region initially. The first governments after communism ended ignored the rule of law, preventing the country from joining NATO in 1999 along with Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The then US secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, referred to the nation as “the black hole” of Europe.

At that time, Fico was in his early 30s and he consolidated the country’s center-left in a power grab, winning followers with passionate speeches on fighting corruption and promoting EU integration. His Smer party won its first general election in 2006. His popularity peaked at 44% in 2012 as he vowed to give more money to the underprivileged.

Inspired by Orban’s ability to shift narrative to stay in power, Fico started to backtrack on issues he once supported. He and his party also faced allegations they allowed corruption to flourish, peaking in 2018 with the contract killing of a young investigative reporter, Jan Kuciak, and his fiancée.

Fico became the face of that public resentment and stepped down after pressure from his coalition partners. He said in an April interview with Bloomberg that he was the scapegoat, that he immediately knew the murder, “which has nothing to do with Smer, will be misused.”

The incoming governments targeted him and his closest allies with graft allegations. Dozens of high-ranking police officers, secret service agents and former officials were convicted in related cases.

Fico refuted allegations his party fostered a mafia-style state as “fabricated and laughable.” But the issue became the main focus of the 2020 election, the first in 14 years that Fico lost.

Read More: Zelenskiy Is Showing the Strain as His Allies Turn Up the HeatThe Far Right Is Advancing in a Vulnerable Europe Again After Weaponizing Immigrants, Europe’s East Finds It Needs Them Ukraine Support Faces New Hurdle as Slovak Leader Eyes Return

As Fico’s popularity hit the rock bottom, he reinvented himself, becoming the voice against everything from coronavirus lockdowns and vaccines to immigration and green policies. Much like Orban, he rails against the EU as a dissenting voice within the bloc rather than to lead his country out of it.

“Fico has certainly changed,” said Bela Bugar, the leader of a former coalition party that was part of a Smer administration from 2016 to 2020. “When you are being hunted, you change.”

It’s Slovakia’s support for Ukraine against Vladimir Putin’s invasion that has been his most bountiful political seam to mine. Fico, who agreed to the purchase of F-16 fighter jets from the US in 2018, has been particularly about the nation’s NATO partners. He compared German troops coming to Slovakia with the Nazi-era Wehrmacht.

Smer’s vice-chairman, Lubos Blaha, roused the crowd at a party event last month: “War and fascism have always come from the West, and freedom and peace from the East,” he said.

Polls show Slovak support for EU and NATO membership has been slipping. Diplomats stationed in Bratislava have slammed Smer for repeatedly spreading misinformation about the Russian invasion. Like Orban, one of Fico’s tropes is that billionaire philanthropist George Soros is interfering in Slovak politics and liberal opponents are serving foreign interests.

“I don’t want to supply deadly weapons to Ukraine just for the sake of a good image among the Western countries,” Fico said in the April interview in Bratislava. “It is irrational to think that Russia will withdraw from Crimea. This approach of the West will destroy Ukraine at some point.”

Smer has recovered enough to give Fico a route back to the premiership with support from smaller groups. It would be his fourth time in office. His main challenger, Simecka, also would need cooperation from other parties should he upset the polls and come first. He has been urging Slovaks to not buy Fico’s narrative. He said this month that the prospect of a government with extremist parties is a risk for Slovakia.

Indeed, Fico could be hard to stop, according to his former ally Zala: “He’s spreading conspiracy theories without any restraints and is able to use them to his advantage.”

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Brazilian Indigenous people celebrate after Brazil's Supreme Court ruled against efforts to restrict native peoples' rights 

September 22, 2023 
Agence France-Presse

BRASÍLIA, BRAZIL — 

A lopsided majority on Brazil's Supreme Court ruled Thursday against an effort to restrict native peoples' rights to protected reservations on their ancestral lands, in a win for Indigenous activists and climate campaigners.

Indigenous leaders in bright feather headdresses and body paint exploded in celebration outside the high court building in Brasilia as Justice Luiz Fux became the sixth on the 11-member court to side with the native plaintiffs in the landmark case, giving them victory.

The judges voted one by one and in the end, the tally was a 9-2 win for Indigenous people opposed to the restriction.

"Justice is on the side of Indigenous peoples," said Joenia Wapichana, the head of the government's Indigenous affairs agency, FUNAI.

"Today is a day to celebrate the death of the 'time-frame argument.'"

The so-called "time-frame argument" at the center of the case held that Indigenous peoples should not have the right to protected reservations on lands where they were not present in 1988, when the country's current constitution was ratified.

The plaintiffs argued that violated their rights, given that many native groups were forced from their ancestral lands, including during the military dictatorship that ruled Brazil from the 1960s to 1980s.

'Impossible debt'

Indigenous activists had dubbed the case the "trial of the century."

After Fux's ruling, Justice Carmen Lucia also sided with the majority, as did two more judges, bringing the final vote to 9-2.

"Brazilian society has an impossible debt to pay to native peoples," Lucia said in her ruling.

The only two justices to rule in favor of the "time-frame argument" so far were appointed by former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro (in office 2019-22), who fulfilled his vow while in office not to create "one more centimeter" of protected Indigenous reservations in Brazil.

Bolsonaro is an ally of Brazil's powerful agribusiness lobby, which backed the "time-frame" limitation.

He presided over a surge in the destruction of the Brazilian Amazon during his presidency, when average annual deforestation increased by more than 75% from the previous decade.

Environmentalists had joined Indigenous activists in pressing for the court to reject the “time-frame" argument. Numerous studies have found protected Indigenous reservations are one of the best ways to fight deforestation and, with it, climate change.

Brazil's constitution makes no mention of a cutoff date in relation to Indigenous reservations, which currently cover 11.6 percent of Brazil's territory, notably in the Amazon region.

Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who defeated Bolsonaro in elections last year, has resumed creating Indigenous reservations since taking office in January, and also created Brazil's first ministry of Indigenous affairs.

Brazil has more than 700 recognized Indigenous lands, though around a third are still awaiting official designation as reservations.

Payment issue

The case was brought by the Xokleng, Guarani and Kaingang peoples of the Ibirama-Laklano indigenous reservation in southern Brazil, part of which lost protected status when a lower court ruled the groups were not living on the land in question in 1988.

They say that is because Brazil's military dictatorship forcibly removed them.

The Supreme Court ruling will set legal precedent nationwide.

It came as Congress was debating legislation that would have enshrined the 1988 cutoff date into law. A bill to that effect already passed the lower house and was working its way through the Senate.

Further legal battles remain for Indigenous activists.

The Supreme Court majority must still decide the touchy subject of whether damages should be paid to property owners who lose land to newly created Indigenous reservations.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who sided with the Indigenous plaintiffs, proposed the payment of such damages in his ruling.

Indigenous leaders condemned the proposal.

"We're not against damages for small landholders but that should not be part of this case... otherwise, a lot of conflicts could erupt," said Kreta Kaingang of the Association of Brazil's Indigenous Peoples.

Int’l Warnings of Catastrophe if Conflict in Yemen Continues

Food rations are being prepared in Sanaa to be distributed to distressed families. (EPA)

Sanaa: Asharq Al Awsat
25 September 2023 AD ـ 11

 Rabi’ Al-Awwal 1445 AH

Several international organizations have warned of a catastrophe on all levels if the conflict in Yemen continues

The World Health Organization revealed that countries such as Yemen still suffer from prolonged conflict, fragile health systems, and weakness towards the climate crises and the pandemics’ destructive impact.

Seventeen million people are food insecure. Nearly 15.4 million people require access to safe water and sanitation. Up to 20.3 million people lack access to healthcare.

The WHO said “every two minutes, a woman dies during pregnancy or childbirth.”

World Bank Country Director for Egypt, Yemen and Djibouti, Middle East and North Africa Stephane Guimbert said on his X account, "Yemen, at war for eight years, calls for support.”

He noted that 17.7 million need protection stressing that “Yemen is a priority for SDGs at GlobalGoalsUN.”

“Yemen's shattered economy showcases the immense challenges faced by its people daily. Their determination deserves our 100 percent attention and action.”

More than 98 international and local aid organizations affirmed in a joint statement that “Yemen stands at the historic opportunity for a shift towards lasting peace. The humanitarian community is committed to supporting this shift.”

“The people of Yemen need and want to look into the future and move away from humanitarian assistance towards self-reliance and rebuilding their country,” read the statement.

“Already exhausted by more than eight years of war, over 21.6 million people, 75 percent of the Yemeni population, are grappling with humanitarian needs.”

“Today, we are still faced with 17 million people who are food insecure. This includes 6.1 million people in the emergency phase under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), which signifies extreme food shortages and acute malnutrition, especially affecting women and children, with a risk of hunger-related deaths.”

They added that "Yemen faces critical water shortages for both agricultural production and human use."

The statement urged the donor Member States to urgently consider “upscaling of quality and flexible humanitarian funding, in line with the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan.”