Another Poll Shows Labour's Lead Over The Tories Has Grown Since The Autumn Statement


Kevin Schofield
Updated Sun, 26 November 2023 

Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt during a visit to the Nissan 

production plant in Sunderland last week.

Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt during a visit to the Nissan production plant in Sunderland last week.

The Autumn Statement has done nothing to turn around the Tories’ fortunes, another opinion poll has confirmed.

According to an Opinium survey for The Observer, Labour has increased its lead over the Conservatives to 16 points.

The Tories are on 26%, one point down on last week, while support for Labour has increased by two points to 42%.

It follows a separate poll by Techne UK, carried out in the wake of the Autumn Statement last Wednesday, which put Labour 25 points ahead after Tory support dropped to just 21%.

Adam Drummond, head of policy and social research at Opinium, said: “Expecting a single fiscal event to revive the ratings of a 13-year old government may be unrealistic but, compared to the black-swan event of last year’s equivalent, it’s possible that the relative quietness of this week’s autumn statement is a measure of success.

“However, the Conservatives still trail Labour on handling the economy and only 20% of voters want tax cuts if it also means cutting spending on public services so it’s hard to see promises of future cuts appealing to those outside the Tory base”

The findings are a huge blow to Sunak, who had hoped that the Autumn Statement would begin to turn around the Tories’ fortunes.

Hunt unveiled what he described as “the biggest package of tax cuts since the 1980s” as he declared the UK economy has “turned a corner”.

The chancellor announced £20 billion-worth of cuts to National Insurance and business taxes, funded by cuts to public services.

However, within minutes it emerged that the overall tax burden is set to hit a new post-war record by the end of the decade.

The Autumn Statement has also been overshadowed by allegations that home secretary James Cleverly called a town in northern England as a “shithole” in the House of Commons.

And a fresh Tory civil war has broken out after new figures revealed the government is on course to break its manifesto pledge to cut immigration.

UK

'You're Not Bringing The Tax 

Burden  Down': 

Trevor Phillips Rejects Tory Minister's Economy Claims

By Kevin Schofield
26/11/2023 

Laura Trott was interviewed by Trevor Phillips on Sky News

A Sky News presenter clashed with a senior Tory minister after she claimed the government is cutting the tax burden.

Laura Trott made the claim on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips just days after the Autumn Statement.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said he was bringing in “the biggest package of tax cuts since the 1980s” as he reduced National Insurance and business taxes.

But it later emerged that the overall tax burden is set to hit a post-war high by the end of the 2020s.

Despite that, Trott said: “We’ve got to pay back our Covid debts and we’ve had to take difficult decisions in order to do that.

“But as a result of those decisions, inflation is now down, we have turned a corner and that is why we can take steps to bring the tax burden down.”

A clearly-exasperated Phillips said: “But you’re not bringing the tax burden down. Let’s have a look at what you’re actually doing.”

Pointing to a graph showing the tax burden continuing to rise, he said: “Look at this. You know this graph better than anybody, you’re the chief secretary to the Treasury. We are now at the highest tax burden since 1948 - that’s before I was born and dinosaurs roamed the earth then.

“I mean honestly, you are increasing taxes not cutting them.”

Trott replied: “What we did at the Autumn Statement this week is the biggest tax-cutting measures since the 1980s. They brought the burden down by 0.7 [% of GDP].

“But we know what we’ve had to pay back our Covid debts, that is something that the Labour Party opposed, but we are now taking action to bring down the tax burden.”

Tory Minister’s lies about ‘bringing down the tax burden’ exposed live on-air

A Tory Minister getting caught-out in 4k, you say? 

This exchange between Laura Trott and Trevor Phillips 

is a must-watch.

 by Tom Head
2023-11-26 

Now THIS is good journalism: Laura Trott was left reeling during her appearance on Sky News this morning, after the Chief Secretary to the Treasury was caught-out in comical fashion by Trevor Phillips.

ALSO READ: Richard Tice accused of ‘harking back to the 1940s’ during BBC appearance
How high is the UK tax burden? The numbers don’t look good for the Tories…

The Tories have claimed that their Autumn Statement will bring tax cuts for millions of British citizens. In reality, the tax burden continues to rise under their stewardship. Most people aren’t buying the spin that accompanies these figures – with no-one more skeptical than Phillips.

The esteemed news anchor and broadcaster engaged with Laura Trott on the topic of inflation. She claimed that the Tories were responsible for reducing price rises, despite inflation rates largely being determined by external factors.

Nonetheless, Trott continued in bullish fashion, and said that the government had managed to ‘turn the corner’ on the economy. It was another statement that Trevor Phillips wasn’t ready to accept – and he had the receipts ready to show.
Laura Trott left squirming during awkward Sky News appearance

A look of fear and confusion was present on Trott’s face, after Sky News brought up a graph that showed the UK’s tax burden over the last 80 years. The current figure is at its highest level since 1948 – a point that was stressed comprehensively by the host:

“You’re not bringing the tax burden down. Look at this graph, you’ll know it better than anyone… we are at the highest tax burden since 1948. That’s before I was born, and when dinosaurs ruled the earth. Honestly, you’re increasing taxes, not cutting them.” | Trevor Phillips

You can watch the full exchange here – just a warning, though: It is very awkward:

 

 

'Just Be Straight With People': Laura Kuennsberg Roasts Tory Minister Over Tax Claims
Laura Trott insisted the amount that average earners pay has come down since 2010.
By Kevin Schofield
26/11/2023 


Laura Trott was grilled on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg
BBC

A Tory minister was urged to “just be straight with people” after she claimed the government was cutting the overall tax burden.

Laura Trott was grilled on BBC 1′s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg this morning.

The chief secretary to the Treasury repeated Conservative claims that her party is reducing the amount people are being taxed - despite clear evidence to the contrary.

At last week’s Autumn Statement, chancellor Jeremy Hunt said he was bringing in “the biggest package of tax cuts since the 1980s” as he reduced National Insurance and business taxes.

But it later emerged that the overall tax burden is still set to hit a post-war high by the end of the 2020s.

Kuenssberg told Trott: “It’s very important that you are clear about the overall picture here.

″The overall picture for our viewers is that the tax burden is going up and up and up and up.”

But the minister said: “That’s actually not true. For people on average wages, their taxes would have been cut by about £1,000 on average since 2010.

“For some of the highest earners, we have asked them to take on more of the burden.”

Kuenssberg replied: “You know, and our viewers will have seen and heard on many occasions, taxes are going to reach a post-war high.

“The overall tax burden is going up. Shouldn’t you just be straight with people?”

Trott said: “I am being straight. If you are on an average income, because of the tax changes that we’ve made, your tax burden will have gone down quite significantly.”

Kuenssberg hit back: “You are going to bring some taxes down, but the overall tax burden is going up - I want people to understand that clearly

UK

Into the abyss

Simon Hewitt analyses the Chancellor’s autumn statement

Tory politics is nothing if not over-confident. When he made his autumn statement on 23rd November, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt claimed that under the Tories the British economy was “back on track.”

He at least partly had inflation in mind. The headline figure was shown earlier in the month to have slowed significantly to 4.6%. There are still reasons to worry about inflation, not least because of volatile energy costs in the light of the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. However, the real cracks in Hunt’s optimistic narrative lie elsewhere.

 It is one thing pronouncing that things are “back on track”. The reality is, for millions of working class people, living standards have fallen over the past few years of Tory rule. Rachel Reeves was quite correct when she said to the Today Programme, “This is the first Parliament ever where real disposable incomes will be lower at the end of the Parliament than they were at the beginning.”

To be precise, think-tank The Resolution Foundation predicts that UK households will be on average £1,900 poorer in January 2025, compared to December 2019. “This is the only Parliament in 70 years to oversee a decline in household living standards,” notes the Resolution Foundation’s report.

Reeves is undoubtedly right to draw attention to this. The question is whether she is prepared to apply the kind of radical policies which would make a difference to the situation. More on that below.

Some of the fall in living standards can be attributed to the Covid pandemic, of course. But even this does not let the Tories off the hook. There were, after all, political and economic decisions made about how to respond to the pandemic, and equivalent economies to the UK’s have bounced back more quickly. In any case, the whole of the fall in living standards can hardly be attributed to the pandemic. What we are looking at in the figures around living standards is a reflection on the state of British capitalism, and of its management under successive Tory front benches.

Jeremy Hunt announced a significant cut in National Insurance (NI), from 12% to 10% on the involuntary contributions paid by workers. The effect of this will be offset in many cases by the earlier-announced freezing of income tax thresholds until 2028. The poorest workers will be hit in particular.

However modest the NI change might be in its impact on working people, it is likely to not play well with key institutions of British capitalism. Numerous economists have predicted that the cuts in NI will mean that the Bank of England will not cut interest rates until summer 2024.

One worry many will have about this concerns the effect of high interest rates on growth. In the third quarter of 2023, growth flatlined, and it is quite possible that growth in the final quarter will turn out to have been negative: the economy will have shrunk. Moving into 2024 with high interest rates lasting for a good few months will not help growth in the new year.

Neither, for that matter, will public spending cuts. Ideologically driven, these amount to £19 billion in real terms. In many respects, then, Hunt’s statement sounded classical post-Thatcher Tory themes: lowering taxes, cutting back public services, effecting in the process a redistribution of wealth from the poor to the rich.

But there is more going on in this statement than pure Tory ideology. In part we see the desperate electioneering of a government facing catastrophic defeat in 2024, hence the headline-grabbing NI cut. Also, however, the statement reflected a government out of its depth on the unstable seas of contemporary capitalism, beset by inflation, struggling to secure growth.

There are limits to what governments can do about capitalism. It is a chaotic, irrational, system which evades precise control. That is why we ultimately need to replace it with socialism. That is not on the cards from Rachel Reeves. To say, though, that there are limits in governments’ ability to manage capitalism does not mean that they can do nothing. Radical measures designed to boost growth in an ecologically sustainable fashion, such as the Green New Deal promoted in Labour’s 2019 manifesto could make a real difference.

As it is, the Labour front bench are talking a lot about a future Labour government securing ‘growth’ but saying little about how that growth will be secured. Similarly absent are any proposals to regulate energy prices, a counter-inflationary measure that would help millions of people, and especially the poorest.

I began by saying that Tory politics is over-confident. In fact it has the over-confidence of someone throwing themselves knowingly into an abyss. The current Tory government will soon be over. It remains to be seen whether the Labour leadership has the radicalism to do what is needed on the economy. Things, however, are not looking hopeful.

Simon Hewitt is a member of Shipley CLP and the University and College Union.

LABOURHUB NOVEMBER 26, 2023

Jeremy Hunt  

https://www.flickr.com/photos/56675543@N08/14171731710 Creator: NHS Confederation. Licence:  CC BY 2.0 DEED Attribution 2.0 Generic

LABOUR HUB EDITORS

'Government cares more about pubs and shops': Early years organisations feel left out in autumn statement

The sector warns an increase in national living wage will contribute to the rising costs for early years providers

CHANCELLOR JEREMY HUNT GAVE HIS AUTUMN STATEMENT ON WEDNESDAY

 (STEFAN ROUSSEAU/PA)

PA WIRE

AYAN OMAR

Early years organisations have called out Jeremy Hunt for ignoring the sector in his autumn statement on Wednesday.

The National Day Nurseries Association (NDNA), a charity representing nurseries in the UK, accused the Government of caring more about “pubs and shops" than "our children’s future."

Purnima Tanuku, CEO of NDNA, said: "In his Autumn Statement , the Chancellor announced 110 growth measures to support businesses but not a single one will help the early education and care sector which is at crisis point. The Government seems to care more about pubs, shops and the technology sector than our children’s futures."

Mr Hunt announced the national living wage will increase to £11.44 per hour. Nearly three million "low-paid workers” will benefit and see an increase of 1,800 in their wages.

The national minimum wage will also rise from £8.60 an hour to £11.11 for those aged between 18 and 20.

The NDNA argued, since the national living wage was introduced, it has risen by 52-62 percent but the funding rate for early years providers has remained at 21 per cent.

According to Early Alliance, the early years education charity, 3000 nurseries were closed down by Ofsted last year due to financial pressures with many facing increased energy, food and staffing costs struggle to operate. The NDNA also reported a 50 per cent increase in nursery closures between 2022-23.

London Early Years Foundation CEO, June O'Sullivan, said while he welcomes the increase in the living wage, it will “only be effective if funding and provision are adequate as part of the Government's ambition to create the 'biggest expansion of childcare in history.”

She added: "If the sector is to survive, then Mr Hunt must keep his Spring Budget promise to parents and address the urgent workforce crises at this crucial time when every decision and every penny counts."

The Spring Budget will introduce a 30-hour free childcare scheme for parents with children aged between nine months and three years in 2025, but childcare providers are skeptical this will resolve the issue, especially at the current rate of funding.

Charlie Rosier, founder of Babbu, an early years education app for parent said: "Without any increased funding mentioned, this increase in overheads will put many more nurseries, already struggling, underwater."

The rise in the minimum wage might significantly impact providers as the staff wages account for around 75 percent of their costs.

Nadia Hewston, a retired teacher with 25 years of experience, said the increase in wages will "help the profession in terms of recruitment and retention of early years staff," but without funding, it will lead to a bigger issue.

She said: "In short the Government is seemingly responding to what school leaders are saying but school leaders are being left with an equally challenging conundrum."

"It’s not real investment. Early years leaders and staff are leaving in droves and this may be the final straw for many more."

Union Boss Accuses Reform UK Leader Of 'Harking Back To The 1940s' Over Immigration Comments

Richard Tice said large numbers moving to the UK were "changing the nature of our country".

By Kevin Schofield

HUFFPOST
26/11/2023 

UNISON general secretary Christina McAnea
DANNY LAWSON - PA IMAGES VIA GETTY IMAGES

The leader of the right-wing Reform UK party has been accused of “harking back to the 1940s” after he said high levels of immigration were “changing the nature of our country”.

Richard Tice clashed with Christine McAnea, general secretary of the Unison trade union, on BBC 1′s ‘Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg’.

The row came after official figures showed net migration - the difference between the numbers entering and leaving the UK - hit 672,000 in the year to June.

Tice said that was “changing the nature of our country, making us poorer financially and it’s making us poorer culturally”.

But McAnea said: “When I hear people saying things like ‘it will affect our country culturally’ - and I’ve heard you say it before - I don’t even know what that means because we are a country where people come from all over the world.

″I’m the grandchild of migrants from Ireland and my culture of probably very different from yours. It’s an appalling way to turn things into a culture war in this country.”

Asked what he meant, Tice replied: “That sense of Britishness, who we are, our heritage, our history, our Christian values and ethos. That is the base of our single British culture and that’s what we want people to unify under.

“We welcome sensible levels of immigration, but mass immigration - people living in silos, different cultures, is not good for our country.”

McAnea hit back: “This is like harking back to the 1940s or 1950s.”

But Tice said that was “absolute nonsense”

Richard Tice accused of ‘harking back to the 1940s’ during BBC appearance

During a grim spectacle on the BBC this morning, Richard Tice was pulled-up for saying that immigration has made the UK 'culturally poorer'.

 by Tom Head
2023-11-26 

Photo: Twitter

The leader of the Reform Party has been accused of using dangerous rhetoric, after he formed part of the panel on the BBC’s flagship political programme on Sunday. Richard Tice’s views on immigration were challenged staunchly by another guest.

Richard Tice upsets guests during contentious BBC appearance

Speaking to Laura Kuenssberg, Tice argued that mass immigration is making the UK ‘poorer economically and culturally’. The comments immediately rankled Christina McAnea, the General Secretary of Unison.

The pair argued vociferously, as Tice claimed that ‘Christian values and ethos’ form the basis of Britishness. He suggested that the country should aspire to live under one cultural identity, blasting the idea of multiculturalism.

“Immigration is changing the nature of our country. It’s making us poorer financially and culturally. We should live and operate under one British culture. Our heritage, our history, our Christian values – people should live under this identity.” | Richard Tice

Reform leader clashes with Unison leader live on-air

With Nigel Farage currently lapping-up all the delights of the Australian jungle, Mr. Tice said he’d welcome his help in making Reform a serious political choice at the next election. He even punted the idea of ‘President Farage’, seemingly forgetting how things work in the UK.

McAnea was somewhat horrified by the politician’s remarks. The union leader said that the statement ‘did not make sense’, and responded by saying that Tice was ‘harking back to the 1940s’. The exchange was certainly a tense one.

“When I hear people saying things like it’ll affect us culturally, I don’t know what that means. People come from all over the world to live here. I’m the grandchild of Irish immigrants. It’s an appalling thing to say… It’s like harking back to the 1940s.” | Christine McAnea

• You can watch the fiery discussion here:
  

UK

Tory crackdown on NHS staff from abroad will be 'final straw' for struggling care sector

Unison General Secretary Christina McAnea expressed alarm over Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick's push to cap NHS and social care visas, and ban foreign care workers from bringing dependents

Calls for an overhaul of social care visas triggered warnings about the future of the stretched sector 

Tory plans to crack down on foreign health staff could prove the "final straw" for the care sector, a top union leader has warned.

Unison General Secretary Christina McAnea expressed alarm over Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick's push to cap NHS and social care visas, and ban foreign care workers from bringing dependents amid a furious Tory backlash over immigration. Estimates from the Office for National Statistics this week show UK net migration peaked at 745,000 in the year to December 2022.

Ms McAnea told the Mirror: "Employers, left with no choice but to recruit foreign workers, are horrified at the Government's latest attempt to appease its right-wingers. Care staff, many of whom have sold all they own to come here, will be terrified at having to choose between their children when it's time to renew their visas. This terrible policy could well prove the final straw for the care sector."

It comes as the Government's top immigration adviser warned the idea could be “very dangerous” for the social care sector. Prof Brian Bell, who chairs the Migration Advisory Committee, said the idea risked worsening the chronic staffing shortage in the sector - and could mean “lots of people won’t get care”.

"You can’t encourage enough British people to do the work in social care because it’s so badly paid," he told the Observer. "If you make it harder for migrants to come in on the route … that might begin to reduce the number who are coming in. But I think you have to ask the question, if you do it from the migration perspective, and you achieve that policy objective, aren’t you massively harming the social care sector?”

Meanwhile, Labour sought to outflank the Tories by saying it would increase salary requirements for workers coming from overseas. Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper vowed to change current rules that allow employers to pay migrant workers 20% less than the annual salary threshold of £26,200 for roles on the shortage occupation list.

Darren Jones, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said Labour would bring net migration down to a "normal level" of a "couple of hundred thousand a year".

It comes as a Cabinet minister has played down any suggestions of a split between Rishi Sunak and Home Secretary James Cleverly over the Rwanda deportation plan.

Mr Cleverly said the plan to ship people who arrive illegally in Britain to the African country was not the "be all and end all". However Mr Sunak stressed the importance of the scheme, which was ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court earlier this month.

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott insisted they were on the same page. She told Sky News: "They're both actually saying the same thing, which is that Rwanda is part of our plan. Both saying it is part of the plan, it is not all of the plan."

Without more immigrants elderly people will suffer

Dr Stella Perrott explains why migrants are the solution to, not the cause of, our failing public services

byDr Stella Perrott
26-11-2023 18:03
in Home Affairs, Politics

The NHS and social care sector rely heavily on workers from overseas.

 Image by Number 10 on Flickr, licensed by CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

On 23 November, the ONS Office for National Statistics (ONS) released provisional annual statistics for the year up to the end of June 2023. On the same day the Home Office released its quarterly immigration statistics up to the end of September 2023. Although less reliable than the ONS statistics (as they are due to be revised), the Home Office figures are up to date and so I am using them here.

While the rise in net immigration has been met with a predictable outcry from those wanting to reduce it and will be used to further criticise the Conservative government, older and disabled people who rely on care services, or patients stuck in hospitals through lack of a care package, may wish to see it rise further.
Headline figures on immigration

The September 2022 to September 2023 Home Office immigration figures broadly comprise:3,383,446 people arriving in the UK on visas (work, study, family);
112,431 people to whom the UK has offered protection (Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghan citizens) – last year these accounted for over 270,000 arrivals; and
those seeking asylum (75,340).

Some arrivals are the ‘main’ applicant and may have ‘dependents’ with them. The headline figures include dependents.

Not all of those issued with visas take them up or remain in the UK for the length of their visa. Many dual nationals will divide their time between two countries and are not full-time resident in the UK.

The number of asylum seekers is broadly in line with previous years and the numbers are small by comparison with the overall figures. The number of people offered protection is about a third of what it was the previous year, the year in which most of those fleeing Ukraine or leaving Hong Kong arrived in the UK. The big rise is almost entirely down to those arriving on visas.

Work visas

Work visas (including dependents) rose by 54% from 380,431 to 585,775. Family visas more than doubled (117%) to 82,395. This figure is expected to drop in subsequent years as most of the dependents of Ukraine and Hong Kong nationals will have arrived in the UK by then.

Study visas rose 8% (48, 315) to 643,778, but this includes short-term students who are not included in the immigration figures (only those staying more than 12 months are included). The ONS figures suggest a doubling of longer-term (degree and postgraduate) course participants from outside the UK and this is increasing net immigration. Over 90% of those coming to the UK return home at the end of their course, or within seven years if the visa is extended – despite government efforts to get them to stay.

Skilled worker – health and care visas

A total of 335,447 work-related visas were issued over the year, with a further 250,297 visas issued to dependents. The ‘skilled worker – health and care’ visas have risen 135% from 60,000 to 143,990. This rise follows the expansion of the skilled worker visa to include health and social care staff in 2021. More than half (58%) of all visas under the skilled worker scheme are for health and social care staff. There are now calls to reduce the numbers.

Prior to Brexit, EU citizens did not require a visa to live and work in the UK and it was easy for employers to employ EU citizens, most often Spanish or Polish. Since Brexit, fewer EU citizens have chosen to come to the UK. More UK citizens leave for the EU than EU citizens for the UK and net immigration now almost entirely comprises non-EU citizens.


HOME AFFAIRS
Demonising immigrants obliterates our sense of shared humanity
BYDAVID WILSON
27 OCTOBER 2023 - UPDATED ON 6 NOVEMBER 2023


The wider context on immigration


Before getting into the detail of the health and social care workforce and the need for immigration, it is worth noting that the average immigrant population of OECD countries (the most advanced economies) is 12% (though these figures date from 2015 and count only those aged over 15). The percentage rose from 9% in 2012 and is likely to be higher now. In the UK the non-UK born population (i.e. including under 16s) increased from 9% from 2004 to 14% in 2021. So, the UK is not out of step with other similar countries.

The US is the most popular country to which people migrate, receiving 39% of all migrants in 2015. Germany was second with 10% while the UK, Canada and France received between 6% and 7%. Statistics show that migrants tend to be better educated than local populations and those migrating from non-OECD countries tend to be better educated than those from OECD countries.

In the UK, research from the Migration Observatory reinforces this pattern. It notes that most immigrants are of working age and will have returned home long before they need long-term health care, and long before they cease to pay income tax.

Migrant contribution to the social care workforce

According to figures on the adult social care workforce, published on 14 November by the House of Commons library, there were 152,000 (9.8%) vacancies out of a 1.52 million workforce. Vacancy rate in the economy overall is much lower, at 3.4%. Nearly a third of social care staff leave every year and so 390,000 posts must be filled annually. Many staff are on minimum wage and zero-hour contracts. The majority are women.

From February 2022 social care workers became eligible for work visas. Increased immigration through the social care route is the government’s preferred policy, not one of reluctance, and since September 2022 it has spent £15mn on recruiting from abroad.

Employers can pay staff recruited on a care visa 20% less than the local rate (whereas in the EU it is illegal to pay differential rates). The Migration Advisory Committee, which advises the government on migration and work visas, warned that this was likely to lead to cheaper imported labour and the suppression of local wages. However, most UK employers prefer to recruit locally and, even with the wage discount, it is more expensive, to recruit from abroad. The high costs of non-UK recruitment, the continued high vacancy rates and the continued haemorrhaging of UK staff to better paying sectors suggests that the discount is not a factor in supressing wages.

But exploitation, whereby employers deduct ‘costs’ from employees, withhold wages, and overwork or threaten to report staff to immigration authorities, has become a significant problem. This was also predicted.


HOME AFFAIRS
The Home Office was left holding the Bibby – the barge was their third choice
BYNICOLA DAVID
8 NOVEMBER 2023 - UPDATED ON 10 NOVEMBER 2023


The UK’s reliance on non-UK workers

Of the adult social care workforce, 19% are non-British born (6% EU and 13% non-EU). The EU percentage has dropped from 7%. The figure for non-British born workers in adult social care is higher for London (41%) and considerably less in the North East, Yorks and Humber (6%). The biggest group of non-UK born staff is in the ‘regulated professions’ (primarily nurses) rather than general care staff. Of these, 40% are non-UK born and without them, nursing homes cannot function.

Care homes and agencies are also fishing in the same pool as the NHS – needing non-UK born staff to fill their vacancies. A House of Commons research paper indicates that 35% of doctors are non-UK born and 27.1% of nurses. Some 45% of nurses joining the profession today are non-UK born. Recent government changes to nurse recruitment are unlikely to ease this problem for a generation or more.
The contribution of immigrants

The UK population is getting older and sicker. There are fewer young people working and paying taxes to support pensions and the care of older people, and fewer young people working in low-paid care roles. Although net immigration has been about 700,000 for the past two years, the UK population grew by only 227,000 (0.34%) in 2022 and a similar amount in 2021.

According to the Nuffield Trust, 350,000 more care workers are needed by 2035 – just to meet the challenge of an aging population. There were 70,000 new immigrant recruits last year which resulted in a drop in the vacancy rate of 0.8% (from 10.6% to 9,8%) just 11,000 fewer vacancies out of a total of 152,000. Many care homes are closing for lack of staff or because they are no longer profitable, and this puts additional pressure on health services.

Immigrant workers, including care workers, tend to be younger (and so probably fitter and in better health) than their UK counterparts with few over the age of 54. In a sector such as social care, which requires hard physical and emotional labour, this is significant benefit. They are also better educated and more of them are professionally qualified or in training.

Of the 70,000 overseas social care recruits last year, 58,000 came via the social care visa. The remainder arrived in the UK through some other visa – family, protection, dependent or even student, and many Ukrainians have become care workers. So other visa sectors are also supporting social care. The turnover of those coming via international routes is much lower than for UK staff. This may be a good thing but may also reflect a level of exploitation and threats of deportation should a worker leave.

Hard choices

Social care businesses can pay care workers more, which would enable them to recruit locally and retain more staff. But it is more likely they will close (as many are doing now) as it will be impossible to raise fees sufficiently to recoup the costs. The government, in the autumn statement, indicated more cuts to public service funding in the years to come and these will further deplete the availability and quality of social care.

Yet even if the sector could increase wages, recruit 150,000 people now, and about 350,000 every year thereafter, it would exhaust the workforce in other sectors. Immigrant labour is crucial in agriculture, food processing, transport and hospitality as well as health and social care. As the population figures show, there are not enough UK workers to go round. All advanced economies are in a similar position and there is worldwide competition for labour. Proposals to force the less ‘economically active’ to become more active are unlikely to have much of an impact in terms of more people working, or for longer hours.

Migrants are the solution to, not the cause of, our failing public services. Without migrants many more people would have died in the pandemic and many older people would be suffering now and dying prematurely without care services. Migrants are keeping the NHS afloat and feeding the nation. It is time we valued and respected them.

Protests continue in defiant call for Gaza ceasefire

Hundreds of thousands take to the streets across Britain

People take part in a Scottish Palestine Solidarity Campaign demonstration in Glasgow. Picture date: Saturday November 25, 2023.

HUNDREDS of thousands of protesters again took to the streets of London and major cities across Britain on Saturday as public anger over Israel’s slaughter in Gaza showed no signs of abating.

Demands for a ceasefire echoed in London, Leeds, Manchester, Glasgow and other centres on the second day of the four-day “pause” in Israel’s attack for the release of Israeli hostages held in Gaza in exchange for Palestinians in Israeli prisons.

In London, police arrested 18 protesters and police were accused of using catch-all Section 12 regulations to make arrests in response to political pressure.

Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC) director Ben Jamal said: “There has been a major political effort by pro-Israel voices, including in government, to defame the protests as hate marches.

“In response the police today imposed a ludicrous Section 12 that gave them power to arrest anyone arriving early or leaving late no matter what they were doing.”

Stop the War Coalition national officer John Rees said: “This is political policing and it’s pretty certain none of this will be applied to tomorrow’s march for Israel,” referring to today’s demonstration called by the Campaign Against Anti-semitism.

In north-west England protesters targeted branches of Barclays Bank over the bank’s financial involvement in arms firms supplying weapons to Israel.

John Nicholson of Manchester PSC said protests had shut eight branches of Barclays in Manchester, Stockport, Blackburn, Bury, Oldham, Rochdale, Bolton and Altrincham.

“All the banks were shut as a result of the protests,” he said. “We will continue targeting Barclays until they disinvest.

“There’s no let-up in people’s anger at what Israel is doing to Gaza.

“What’s great is that we can still stage a national demonstration in London yet have all these protests going on away from London at the same time.”

The Manchester protesters marched from Barclays to the regional offices of Fisher German, a property company which leases premises to Israeli-own arms manufacturer Elbit Systems. A further protest took place there.

Speakers at the Leeds rally reported how 300 students had walked out of the city’s university on Friday in support of Palestine.

More than 60 doctors and health workers had also demonstrated in the city’s Mandela Gardens mourning the deaths of more than 200 medical staff in Israeli attacks on hospitals.

Protests took place across Scotland including in Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Dundee.

Placards in Glasgow bore the words: “You can’t pause a genocide.”

The Scottish Palestinian Solidarity Campaign said: “There is a pause in the genocide but the people in Gaza are suffering unimaginable horrors.

“They still need our support.”

In Leeds around 1,000 marched.

Protester Steve Johnson told the Morning Star: "Marching from City Square through the heart of Leeds it doubled in size as people joined in, filmed and clapped us.”

Palestine supporters staged a fundraiser today in the Pennine town of Todmorden in West Yorkshire before around 100 people marched to the community’s town hall for a weekly protest.

Before the hostage and prisoner exchanges began on Friday Hamas held 240 hostages in Gaza, including women and children.

Israel holds 7,000 Palestinians in its prisons including women and children, many of them held on indefinite “administrative detention.”

Today, Israel repeated its determination to continue its air and ground attacks on Gaza when the “pause” in the onslaught ends after today, despite growing international pressure for a permanent ceasefire.

Protests are expected to continue during the week.

MORNINGSTAR 

‘Free Palestine’ chants echo through Glasgow as STUC stages St Andrew's Day march


People take part in the annual Scottish Trades Union Congress (STUC) annual St Andrew's Day march and rally in Glasgow, in solidarity with those impacted by racism and racial discrimination throughout Scotland. Picture date: Saturday November 25, 2023.


PETER LAZENBY

MORNINGSTAR

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2023

CHANTS of “free Palestine” echoed through the streets of Glasgow as the Scottish Trades Union Congress (STUC) staged its annual St Andrew’s Day celebration on Saturday.

Trade unionists, anti-racism campaign groups and supporters from across Scotland marched through the city and rallied at Strathclyde University, where speakers appealed for support for Palestine and for the eradication of racism.

Scotland’s SNP First Minister Humza Yousaf said that equality is “in the DNA” of the trade union movement, while Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar noted that ethnic minorities in Scotland and around the world continue to suffer racism.

In response to reports of fascist and far-right groups demonstrating in Scotland, the theme of the STUC rally was “From Erskine to Elgin: the far right is not welcome.”

Mr Yousaf denounced “horrific examples of the mobilisation of the far right” across the world and said his own family had been racially abused after the September 11 terror attacks in the United States, which left almost 3,000 people dead in 2001.

“If you had a beard or, like my sisters and my mother, you wore a hijab — my sister had stones thrown at her coming off the train,” he said.

“We were called terrorists, we were asked if we were related to bin Laden, if we were part of the Taliban.

“All of that Islamophobia that we faced, I can say that post-9/11 the days and weeks, even the months after 9/11, for the first time in my life, as a teenager, I felt like Scotland, maybe, wasn’t my home.”

Mr Yousaf, whose parents-in-law were trapped in the Gaza Strip when the Israeli military onslaught on the Palestinian enclave began after the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel, reiterated his support for a full ceasefire in the conflict.

Mr Sarwar told how the racism he had suffered when he was 12 years old had also been inflicted on his son, who was victimised as “the only P**i” in a local football team.

He also spoke out to demand a ceasefire, in defiance of the stance taken by British Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.

Both Mr Yousaf and Mr Sarwar voiced support for the family of Sheku Bayou, whose death in police custody in May 2015 is the subject of an ongoing public inquiry.