New interpretation of runic inscription reveals pricing in Viking age

Stockholm University

 

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Old ink drawing of the Forsa Ring with the runic inscription.

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Credit: Lars Kennerstedt/the Swedish National Heritage Board

A new interpretation of the runic inscription on the Forsa Ring (Forsaringen in Swedish), provides fresh insights into the Viking Age monetary system and represents the oldest documented value record in Scandinavia. The inscription describes how the Vikings handled fines in a flexible and practical manner. This is highlighted in research from the Department of Economic History and International Relations at Stockholm University, recently published in the Scandinavian Economic History Review.

“The Forsaringen inscription "uksa … auk aura tua" was previously interpreted to mean that fines had to be paid with both an ox and two ore of silver. This would imply that the guilty party had to pay with two different types of goods, which would have been both impractical and time-consuming,“ says Rodney Edvinsson, Professor of Economic History at Stockholm University, who conducted the study.

The Forsa Ring is an iron ring from Hälsingland, dated to the 9th or 10th century. The runic inscription on the ring describes fines for a specific offense, where payment was to be made in the form of oxen and silver. The ring is believed to have been used as a door handle and is currently the oldest known preserved legal text in Scandinavia. By changing the translation of the word "auk" from the previous interpretation "and" to the new interpretation "also," the meaning changes so that fines could be paid either with an ox or with two ore of silver. An ore was equivalent to about 25 grams of silver.

“This indicates a much more flexible system, where both oxen and silver could be used as units of payment. If a person had easier access to oxen than to silver, they could pay their fines with an ox. Conversely, if someone had silver but no oxen, they could pay with two ore of silver,“ says Rodney Edvinsson.

The new interpretation shows that the Vikings had a system where both oxen and silver served as units of payment. This system allowed for multiple types of units of accounts to be used concurrently, reducing transaction complexity and making it easier for people to meet their financial obligations. The new interpretation also aligns better with how the system functioned later according to later regional laws and is, according to Rodney Edvinsson, significant for our understanding of both Scandinavian and European monetary history.

“As an economic historian, I particularly look for historical data to be economically logical, that is, to fit into other contemporary or historical economic systems. The valuation of an ox at two ore, or 50 grams of silver, in 10th-century Sweden resembles contemporary valuations in other parts of Europe, indicating a high degree of integration and exchange between different economies,“ says Rodney Edvinsson.

He has previously contributed to developing a historical consumer price index extending back to the 13th century, but this new interpretation provides insights into price levels even earlier in history.

“The price level during the Viking Age in silver was much lower than in the early 14th century and late 16th century, but approximately at the same level as in the late 15th century and the 12th century, when there was a silver shortage,“ says Rodney Edvinsson.

The study highlights the importance of using modern economic theories to interpret historical sources. By combining economic theory with archaeological and historical findings, new opportunities for interdisciplinary research and a deeper understanding of early economic systems are opened up.

The Forsa Ring

Credit

Ulrika Eriksson/Svenska Kyrkan

What Did Things Cost During the Viking Age?

According to the new interpretation, an ox would cost 2 öre of silver, about 50 grams of silver, during the Viking Age. This corresponds to roughly 100,000 Swedish kronor today, if compared to the value of an hour's work. The Forsa Ring’s fine amount was therefore quite high. One öre was likely equivalent to about nine Arabic dirhams, a currency that circulated in large quantities among the Vikings. A common price for a thrall was 12 öre of silver, or approximately 600,000 Swedish kronor today. The wergild for a free man, i.e., the fine paid to the family of the murdered to avoid blood revenge, was much higher, around 5 kilos of silver, which is about 10 million Swedish kronor today. The significant difference in value between a thrall and a free man reflects the power dynamics between free individuals and thralls in a slave society.

Read the publication: “Applying a transaction cost perspective to decode Viking Scandinavia's earliest recorded value relation: insights from the Forsaringen’s runic inscription” in the Scandinavian Economic History Review.

The relevant inscription of the Forsa Ring translated to modern English:
One ox and [also/or] two öre of silver to the staff for the restoration of a sanctuary in a valid state for the first time; two oxen and [also/or] four öre of silver for the second time; but for the third time four oxen and eight öre of silver.

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Journal

Scandinavian Economic History Review

DOI

10.1080/03585522.2024.2378465 

Method of Research

Content analysis

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Applying a transaction cost perspective to decode viking Scandinavia's earliest recorded value relation: insights from the forsa ring’s runic inscription

 

Poverty premium on energy costs impacts poorer households

University of Edinburgh

Poverty premium on energy costs impacts poorer households

People living in poorer households are more likely to face higher energy costs than those who do not, a study shows.

Those in low income households are more likely to pay more for their basic energy tariff and also incur higher costs per unit of energy compared with more affluent households, research suggests.

The study found people can incur higher premiums through multiple pathways – including the use of non-standard billing methods such as prepayment meters.

Other factors which increased the likelihood of higher premiums include the presence of children or unemployed adults in a household and living in rented accommodation, an apartment or a flat.  

On average, poor households paid between 10 to 20 per cent more per unit than higher income households for both gas and electricity, between 2011 and 2019, the research found.

Researchers say the findings shed light on the average premiums incurred by poor households, and could aid targeted policy interventions.

A team at the University of Edinburgh applied statistical methods to two large datasets, to measure how much people from poorer households pay for their gas and electricity use, and the drivers that lead to higher costs.

Researchers merged two sets of UK household data with figures from the UK Government’s National Energy Efficiency Data-Framework (NEED).

They combined the data with a statistical theory in a new approach to assessing the energy premiums faced by those in poorer households.

They found that household poverty status significantly affected the likelihood and intensity of gas and electricity premiums. This was the case even when other factors such as property type, payment method, geographical location, gender and age were taken into account.

Researchers say their method, which is based on detailed household-level data to compare energy expenditure per unit between households with different incomes, is an accurate approach to measuring how poverty can influence energy costs.

Fiona Rasanga, of the University of Edinburgh Business School, a PhD student who led the study, said: “The findings shed light on how the poverty premium – or the idea that the poor pay more for essential goods and services – directly impacts the economic wellbeing of poor households. Policymakers could use the proposed measurement approach to keep track of the poverty premium and its economic impact on households.”

The study is published in the Journal Energy Economics (10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107726). The research was supported by the ESRC and the Smart Data Foundry - an independent collaboration between governments and regulators, the financial services, industry and academia.

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Journal

Energy Economics

DOI

10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107726 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Measuring the energy poverty premium in Great Britain and identifying its main drivers based on longitudinal household survey data

 

Expansion of agricultural land threatens climate and biodiversity

University of Basel

By 2030, global cultivation areas are expected to expand by 3.6 percent, increasing global agricultural production by two percent. This projection comes from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

An interdisciplinary research team led by Dr. Florian Zabel and Prof. Dr. Ruth Delzeit from the Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Basel has investigated which areas worldwide are most likely to be affected by future agricultural expansion. The study's findings were published in the journal Nature Sustainability.

Higher production, more greenhouse gases

The researchers developed a land-use model that identifies the most profitable areas worldwide for future agricultural expansion, taking into account both socio-economic and agro-ecological criteria. They then assessed the economic and ecological impacts of land-use changes in these areas. According to the study, new agricultural areas are expected to emerge mainly in the tropics, where there is still significant potential to increase agricultural production despite climate change.

However, since cropland stores much less carbon than the original vegetation, the study estimates that land-use changes would emit about 17 gigatons of CO2 in the long term. This is almost half of the current annual global CO2 emissions. In the areas affected by land-use changes, biodiversity would also decline by 26 percent. "The expansion of agricultural land would therefore be a concerning development, particularly for global climate protection and efforts to preserve biodiversity," says co-lead researcher Florian Zabel.

Conservation also makes economic sense

In light of recent political efforts to protect nature, forests, and biodiversity globally, the researchers also evaluated the impact of various scenarios of global conservation policies and their consequences. It became clear that conservation measures can also have unintended side effects: Preventing the expansion of agricultural land into forests, wetlands, and existing protected areas by law would shift agricultural expansion mainly to grasslands. This could have a negative effect on the biodiversity of these areas, as grasslands generally have higher diversity than other lands.

On the other hand, sticking to conservation efforts can also make economic sense. “Contrary to expectations, the preservation of forests, wetlands, and existing protected areas has little impact on the gross domestic product of the respective regions. Global agricultural production is also only slightly reduced as a result. In return, the greenhouse gas emissions caused by expansion are significantly reduced," says lead author Julia Schneider of Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München. This finding is particularly relevant in the context of global food security: it shows that the conflicts between the provision of agricultural goods and environmental protection can be mitigated.

Improve planning of protected areas

The study makes a valuable contribution to answering the question of which areas are particularly worth protecting. In the Kunming-Montreal Biodiversity Convention, the international community has set a goal to protect 30 percent of the global land surface by 2030.

The current study identifies regions that are particularly at risk in the future and highlights the potential impacts of agricultural expansion on the economy and the environment. "This enables the planning of protected areas in such a way that they achieve the broadest possible impact on as many objectives as possible, such as climate and biodiversity protection, while also considering economic interests," says Florian Zabel.

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Journal

Nature Sustainability

DOI

10.1038/s41893-024-01410-x 

Article Title

Effects of profit-driven cropland expansion and conservation policies

Article Publication Date

13-Aug-2024

 

Study reveals urban trees suffer more from heat waves and drought than their rural counterparts

The findings have implications for urban forestry and heat island management efforts.

Advanced Science Research Center, GC/CUNY

 

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Researchers examined core samples from trees in urban areas and found they are more adversely affected by climate stress than their rural counterparts with less exposure to high levels of carbon emissions. 

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Credit: Anthony Cak

NEW YORK, August 13, 2024 — A recently published study in Ecological Applications details how trees in New York City and Boston are more negatively impacted by heat waves and drought than trees of the same species in nearby rural forests. The finding, made by researchers at the Advanced Science Research Center at the CUNY Graduate Center (CUNY ASRC), highlights the challenges urban trees face in the context of climate change and underscores the importance of tailored urban forestry management as a tool for protecting tree species and reducing urban heat islands.

The research is particularly timely, given the record-breaking increase in global mean temperatures and the ongoing hottest summer on record. As cities continue to grapple with the impacts of climate change, this study provides critical insights into how urban trees' health and the ecosystem services they offer might be jeopardized.

Key Findings:

• Urban trees in NYC and Boston experience greater negative impacts from heat waves and drought compared to rural trees.
• Urban trees' growth rates and carbon storage capabilities are significantly reduced during extreme weather conditions.
• The authors suspect that the harsh urban environment, characterized by hotter, drier conditions and higher pollution levels, exacerbates the vulnerability of urban trees to climate stress.

For their study, researchers used tree cores from urban and rural forests to reconstruct historical growth rates and then compared these with climate data. The aim was to determine if urban trees are more adversely affected by climate stress than their rural counterparts. The study found that urban trees suffer more during periods of heat waves and drought, raising concerns about their long-term health and ability to provide crucial ecosystem services.

“Trees are integral to urban sustainability and climate resiliency strategies, offering benefits such as temperature reduction, stormwater management, recreational spaces, biodiversity support, and improved human health,” said the study’s principal investigator Andrew Reinmann, a professor with the CUNY ASRC’s Environmental Science Initiative and Hunter College’s Department of Geography and Environmental Science. “Understanding why urban trees are more sensitive to climate stress is the next step so that urban planners, forest managers, community groups, and policymakers can develop effective urban forestry plans.”

Such plans might include designing new management protocols that maximize the size of tree planting pits and selecting tree species better suited to urban conditions.

This study received support from The City University of New York (CUNY), the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Services Northern Research Station, Barnard College Summer Research Institute, USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture and the NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates program.

 

About the Advanced Science Research Center at the CUNY Graduate Center
The Advanced Science Research Center at the CUNY Graduate Center (CUNY ASRC) is a world-leading center of scientific excellence that elevates STEM inquiry and education at CUNY and beyond. The CUNY ASRC’s research initiatives span five distinctive, but broadly interconnected disciplines: nanoscience, photonics, neuroscience, structural biology, and environmental sciences. The center promotes a collaborative, interdisciplinary research culture where renowned and emerging scientists advance their discoveries using state-of-the-art equipment and cutting-edge core facilities.

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Journal

Ecological Applications

DOI

10.1002/eap.2970 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Urbanization exacerbates climate sensitivity of eastern United States broadleaf trees

 

Electric scooter–related injuries are becoming more frequent and costly

In Denver, the frequency of these injuries increased nearly fivefold in five years, and the average annual hospital charges related to treatment more than doubled

Wolters Kluwer Health

August 13, 2024 — The introduction of publicly shared electric scooters (“e-scooters”) in Denver, Colorado has resulted in a steady increase in injuries and hospital admissions, according to research led by Alexander Lauder, MD, an orthopedic surgeon at Denver Health Medical Center. The findings are presented in Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research® (CORR®), a publication of The Association of Bone and Joint Surgeons®. The journal is published in the Lippincott portfolio by Wolters Kluwer. 

"International reports corroborate similar trends with increased scooter use and rates of associated injury," Dr. Lauder's team writes. "This may result from amplified availability of e-scooter use without thorough or comprehensive legislative regulation." 

Most injuries related to e-scooters occur late at night and on the weekends 

In July 2018, Denver launched a Dockless Mobility Program, which provides e-scooters for public use. A study at Denver Health Medical Center, published in 2022 in the Journal of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons, determined that in the first 18 months after introduction of publicly shared scooters, 197 patients came to Denver Health with associated injuries, compared with 23 patients who came there with e-scooter injuries between August 1, 2016 and February 1, 2018. The need for hospital admissions increased from 11% of injured patients to 62%. 

In the new study in CORR®, the same research team looked back to see how many people of any age came to Denver Health with e-scooter injuries between January 1, 2020, and November 1, 2023. They identified 2,424 patients: 273 injured in 2020, 736 in 2021, 758 in 2022, and 657 in 2023 (only 10 months studied). The average number of patients injured each year was 131 in the older study and 619 in the new study, about a 4.75-fold increase. 

The median patient age was 30 and 58% were men. 30% percent of all injuries were orthopaedic, such as fractures. 44% of injuries occurred on Saturday or Sunday, and 45% occurred during nighttime hours (7 PM to 3 AM). 12% of all patients and 16% of patients with orthopaedic injuries had to be admitted to the hospital. 

Hospital charges for e-scooter injuries varied with type, timing 

From 2020 to 2023, total hospital charges for e-scooter injuries averaged $10.4 million per year. The median hospital charge per patient was: 

• Patients with an orthopaedic injury—$8,077 vs. $7,075 for patients overall 

• Patients injured during nighttime hours—$10,459 vs. $4,973 for patients injured in the morning and $4,871 for patients injured in the middle of the day (these differences were statistically significant) 

• Patients injured while intoxicated—$13,404 vs. $6,132 for patients injured when not intoxicated (this difference was statistically significant) 

Strategies are needed to reduce injuries related to e-scooters 

Dr. Lauder and his co-authors note that in Denver, e-scooter riders "are permitted to operate e-scooters without specific licensing, share roads with motor vehicles using the bike lane, proceed through stop signs without stopping, and continue through red lights after a brief stop once the user assesses it to be 'safe' to do so." 

"Additionally, some states have eliminated the need for safety precautions such as helmet use," the group continues. "According to e-scooter riders, the road traffic legislature currently guiding e-scooter operation is inadequate and often misunderstood. These reports demonstrate the need for increased public awareness, clarification of current traffic laws, and public safety initiatives that address the dangers of e-scooter use." 

One potential approach, the authors note, would be to restrict e-scooter use at night and on weekends, the periods of peak injury. 

Read Article: Electric Scooter–related Injuries Are Becoming More Frequent and Costly in Denver, CO 

Wolters Kluwer provides trusted clinical technology and evidence-based solutions that engage clinicians, patients, researchers and students in effective decision-making and outcomes across health care. We support clinical effectiveness, learning and research, and clinical surveillance and compliance, as well as data solutions. For more information about our solutions, visit https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/health. 

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About Wolters Kluwer 

Wolters Kluwer (EURONEXT: WKL) is a global leader in information, software solutions and services for professionals in healthcare; tax and accounting; financial and corporate compliance; legal and regulatory; corporate performance and ESG. We help our customers make critical decisions every day by providing expert solutions that combine deep domain knowledge with technology and services. 

Wolters Kluwer reported 2023 annual revenues of €5.6 billion. The group serves customers in over 180 countries, maintains operations in over 40 countries, and employs approximately 21,400 people worldwide. The company is headquartered in Alphen aan den Rijn, the Netherlands.  

For more information, visit www.wolterskluwer.com, follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram. 

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Journal

Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research

Article Title

Electric Scooter–related Injuries Are Becoming More Frequent and Costly in Denver, CO

Article Publication Date

13-Aug-2024

 

Business crucial to addressing toxic pollution and protecting human health

Toxic pollution kills up to 9 million people each year. Business can play a critical role in addressing it and protecting health as a human right.

University of Notre Dame

 

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Richard (Drew) Marcantonio, assistant professor of environment, peace and global affairs in the Keough School of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame.

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Credit: Photo by Barbara Johnston/University of Notre Dame

By Josh Stowe

Toxic pollution is the single largest cause of death and poor health, killing up to 9 million people each year — about 100 times more than war and terrorism combined. Business produces the bulk of this deadly pollution, but can also play a critical role in addressing it and mitigating its effects, according to new research by University of Notre Dame expert Richard (Drew) Marcantonio.

Marcantonio, whose study was recently published in Business Horizons, is assistant professor of environment, peace and global affairs in Notre Dame’s Keough School of Global Affairs.

His new research underscores the importance of promoting access to a safe, clean and healthy environment as a human right, as well as the need for business to help protect that right, both of which the United Nations has advocated for in recent years.

“Business is the top cause of pollution,” Marcantonio said. “But it is also one of the most potent tools for countering it and equitably restoring affected communities and ecosystems.”

Pollution, whether in the air, water or soil, harms health and well-being in multiple ways, Marcantonio said, noting that it causes respiratory conditions such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and contributes to malnutrition, chronic stress and disability.

Importantly, the risks are not evenly distributed, Marcantonio said. Most of the people harmed by pollution are neither producing it nor participating in the overconsumption that causes it. About 92 percent of toxic pollution deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, he said. And within more developed countries, the people who are most harmed by pollution live in lower-income and marginalized communities.

Policymakers have called for action to address the global health consequences. In 2021, the United Nations Human Rights Council passed a resolution that recognized access to a healthy environment as a human right. In 2022, the United Nations General Assembly reaffirmed the resolution, declaring that a healthy environment is a human right.

In addition, the United Nations’ Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights say that businesses should respect human rights. The principles specify that business must avoid infringing on the human rights of others and should further address any adverse impacts they have on human rights.

Marcantonio’s study builds upon this human rights perspective of environmental damage and harm to health, leveraging his expertise as an environmental peacebuilder who has conducted research on five continents.

As an environmental peacebuilding expert at Notre Dame, Marcantonio is affiliated with the Business Ethics and Society Program and the Deloitte Center for Ethical Leadership in the Mendoza College of Business; with the Environmental Change Initiative and Lucy Family Institute for Data & Society; and with the Keough School’s Kellogg Institute for International Studies and Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies. His study received funding from the Meyer Business on the Frontlines Program, part of the Mendoza College of Business, and from the Environmental Change Initiative.

The research describes toxic pollution as a contributor to “environmental violence,” a form of structural violence that, although less dramatic than armed conflicts, is nevertheless more deadly and debilitating. It calls for business to help address the systemic and structural health inequalities that come with pollution.

“Businesses can take much-needed steps to curb pollution, in part by embracing innovations like adaptive construction, which reuses existing structures, as well as alternative energy options that cut emissions,” Marcantonio said. “In addition, they can provide health services to the communities in which they operate, ensuring that residents are healthier and less vulnerable to pollution.”

Marcantonio said policymakers can help businesses protect the human right to health by adopting regulations that push companies to innovate and mitigate. For instance, he said mandatory carbon damage disclosures encourage companies to reduce their carbon footprint, and similar disclosures for toxic pollutants might have a similar impact.

“To ignore the role of business in producing the environmental violence of toxic pollution is immensely dangerous and naive,” Marcantonio said. “But to ignore its role as a primary solution would be equally unwise. Policymakers, researchers and business leaders should embrace both realities and work together toward policies and practices that sustainably prioritize human health by reducing toxic pollution and doing more to mitigate its effects. The goal is to protect health as a human right.”

Contact: Tracy DeStazio, associate director of media relations, 574-631-9958 or tdestazi@nd.edu

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Journal

Business Horizons

DOI

10.1016/j.bushor.2024.07.003 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Environmental violence and enterprise: The outsized role of business for environmental peacebuilding

 

Climate change raised the odds of unprecedented wildfires in 2023-24

University of East Anglia

Unprecedented wildfires in Canada and parts of Amazonia last year were at least three times more likely due to climate change and contributed to high levels of CO2 emissions from burning globally, according to the first edition of a new systematic annual review.

The State of Wildfires report takes stock of extreme wildfires of the 2023-2024 fire season (March 2023-February 2024), explains their causes, and assesses whether events could have been predicted. It also evaluates how the risk of similar events will change in future under different climate change scenarios.

The report, which will be published annually, is co-led by the University of East Anglia (UEA, UK), the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), the Met Office (UK) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, UK).

Published today in the journal Earth System Science Data, the report finds that carbon emissions from wildfires globally were 16% above average, totalling 8.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. Emissions from fires in the Canadian boreal forests were over nine times the average of the past two decades and contributed almost a quarter of the global emissions.

If it had not been a quiet fire season in the African savannahs, then the 2023-24 fire season would have set a new record for CO2 emissions from fires globally.

As well as generating large CO2 emissions, fires in Canada led to more than 230,000 evacuations and eight firefighters lost their lives. An unusually high number of fires were also seen in northern parts of South America, particularly in Brazil’s Amazonas state and in neighbouring areas of Bolivia, Peru, and Venezuela. This led to the Amazon region experiencing among the worst air quality ratings on the planet.

Elsewhere in the world, individual wildfires that burned intensely and spread quickly in Chile, Hawaii, and Greece led to 131, 100, and 19 direct fatalities, respectively. These were among the many wildfires worldwide with significant impacts on society, the economy, and the environment.

“Last year, we saw wildfires killing people, destroying properties and infrastructure, causing mass evacuations, threatening livelihoods, and damaging vital ecosystems,” said the lead author of this year’s analysis, Dr Matthew Jones, Research Fellow at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA.

“Wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense as the climate warms, and both society and the environment are suffering from the consequences.”

The loss of carbon stocks from boreal forests in Canada and tropical forests in South America have lasting implications for the Earth’s climate. Forests take decades to centuries to recover from fire disturbance, meaning that extreme fire years such as 2023-24 result in a lasting deficit in carbon storage for many years to come.

“In Canada, almost a decade’s worth of carbon emissions from fire were recorded in a single fire season - more than 2 billion tonnes of CO2,” said Dr Jones. “In turn, this raises atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and exacerbates global warming.”

Climate change made the 2023-24 fire season more extreme

As well as cataloguing high-impact fires globally, the report focused on explaining the causes of extreme fire extent in three regions: Canada, western Amazonia, and Greece.

Fire weather - characterised by hot, dry conditions that promote fire - has shifted significantly in all three focal regions when compared to a world without climate change. Climate change made the extreme fire-prone weather of 2023-24 at least three times more likely in Canada, 20 times more likely in Amazonia, and twice as likely in Greece.

The report also used cutting-edge attribution tools to distinguish how climate change has altered the area burned by fires versus a world without climate change. It found that the vast extent of wildfires in Canada and Amazonia in the 2023-24 fire season was almost certainly greater due to climate change (with more than 99% confidence).

“It is virtually certain that fires were larger during the 2023 wildfires in Canada and Amazonia due to climate change,” said Dr Chantelle Burton, Senior Climate Scientist at the Met Office.

“We are already seeing the impact of climate change on weather patterns all over the world, and this is disrupting normal fire regimes in many regions. It is important for fire research to explore how climate change is affecting fires, which gives insights into how they may change further in the future.”

Likelihood of extreme wildfires will rise but can be mitigated

Climate models used in the report suggest that the frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires will increase by the end of the century, particularly in future scenarios where greenhouse gas emissions remain high.

The report shows that by 2100, under a mid-to-high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP370), wildfires similar in scale to the 2023-24 season will become over six times more common in Canada. Western Amazonia could see an extreme fire season like 2023-24 almost three times more frequently. Similarly, years with fires on the scale of those seen in Greece during 2023-2024 are projected to double in frequency.

“As long as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the risk of extreme wildfires will escalate,” said Dr Douglas Kelley, Senior Fire Scientist at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology.

Increases in the future likelihood of extreme wildfire events, on the scale of 2023-2024, can be minimised by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Following a low emissions scenario (SSP126) can limit the future likelihood of extreme fires. In western Amazonia, the frequency of events like 2023-24 is projected to be no larger in 2100 than in the current decade under a low emissions scenario. In Canada, the future increase in frequency of extreme fires is reduced from a factor of six to a factor of two, while in Greece the increase is limited to 30%.

“Whatever emissions scenario we follow, risks of extreme wildfires will increase in Canada, highlighting that society must not only cut emissions but also adapt to changing wildfire risks,” said Dr Kelley.

“These projections highlight the urgent need to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and manage vegetation in order to reduce the risk and impacts of increasingly severe wildfires on society and ecosystems.”

Disentangling the causes of extreme fires

Several factors control fire, including weather conditions influenced by climate change, the density of vegetation on the landscape influenced by climate and land management, and ignition opportunities influenced by people and lightning.

Disentangling the influence of these factors can be complex, but the report used cutting-edge fire models to reveal the influence of different factors on extreme fire activity.

The report found that the area burned by fires in Canada and Greece would likely have been larger if the landscape had not been altered by people. Activities such as agriculture, forestry, and dedicated fire management efforts all influence the landscape, and can reduce the density of vegetation. In addition, firefighters also help to reduce fire spread by tackling active wildfires. When wildfires meet areas with sparse vegetation or more aggressive firefighting strategies, they can run out of fuel or be contained.

“In Canada and Greece, a mix of severe fire weather and plenty of dry vegetation reinforced one another to drive a major uptick in the number and extent of fires last year,” said Dr Francesca Di Giuseppe, Senior Scientist at ECMWF.

She added: “But our analysis also shows that factors such as suppression and landscape fragmentation related to human activities likely played important roles in limiting the final extent of the burned areas.

“Human practices played an important role in the most extreme events we analysed. However, we found that the final extent of these fires was determined by the simultaneous occurrence of multiple predictable factors — principally weather, fuel abundance, and moisture — rather than direct human influence.”

The report found that human activities increased the extent of the 2023 wildfires in western Amazonia. In this region, the expansion of agriculture has resulted in widespread deforestation and forest degradation. This has left forests more vulnerable to fire during periods of drought and fire weather, amplifying the effect of climate change.

During 2023-24, the fourth most powerful El Niño event on record drove a prolonged drought and heatwave in South America. This natural feature of Earth’s climate increases temperatures and reduces rainfall in Amazonia every three to eight years, but it is increasingly superimposed on higher temperatures due to climate change.

“In many tropical forests like Amazonia, deforestation and the expansion of agriculture have exacerbated the effects of climate change on wildfire risk, leaving these vital ecosystems more vulnerable,” said Dr Burton.

An eye towards the 2024-2025 fire season

Forecasting fire risk is a growing research area and early warning systems have already been built based on weather factors alone. For example, in Canada, extreme fire weather was predicted two months in advance and provided early indications of high fire potential in 2023. Events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter windows of predictability.

For the 2024-25 season, forecasts suggested a continued above-average likelihood of fire weather - hot, dry, and windy conditions - in parts of North and South America, which presented favourable conditions for wildfires in California, Alberta, British Columbia, and in the Brazilian Pantanal in June and July.

Dr Di Giuseppe said: “We're not particularly surprised by some of the recent fires in the news, as above-average fire weather was predicted in parts of North and South America. However, the extensive Arctic fires we've witnessed recently have caught us by surprise — something to look at in our next report.”

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Journal

Earth System Science Data

DOI

10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Article Publication Date

14-Aug-2024