US-South Africa relations sink to new low with Ambassador who “hates America” expelled amid racism allegations

Trump froze US assistance to South Africa, citing “unjust racial discrimination” against white Afrikaners under Ramaphosa / bne IntelliNewsFacebook

TwitterLinkedInTelegramFlipboardFeedly

By Brian Kenety March 17, 2025

Relations between the United States and South Africa – already strained over their previous governments’ positions on the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine conflict and other geopolitical issues – have rapidly spiralled since Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office.

Now, in a highly unusual move, the United States has expelled South Africa’s ambassador, whom US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a post on X on March 14 is a “race-baiting politician” who “hates America” and Trump.

Rubio – who boycotted the G-20 foreign ministers meeting in February, as it was hosted and chaired by South Africa – reposted an article from right-wing website Breitbart that quoted the envoy, Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool, as saying that Trump was leading a white supremacist movement, citing some of his recent remarks during an online lecture about the US administration.

At the webinar, Rasool said that Trump was “mobilising a supremacism” and trying to “project white victimhood as a dog whistle”, pointing to South African-born billionaire Elon Musk’s contacting far-right figures in Europe, amid changing demographics that could see the white population become a minority in the US.

“We see it in the domestic politics of the USA, the MAGA movement – the Make America Great Again movement – as a response not simply to a supremacist instinct, but to very clear data that shows great demographic shifts in the USA in which the voting electorate in the USA is projected to become 48% white,” he said.

Rasool must leave the country by March 21, a US State Department spokesperson said. The office for South Africa's president said the decision was “regrettable”, adding that the country remained committed to building a mutually beneficial relationship with the US.

A former anti-apartheid campaigner who served time in prison for his activism against the racist system, Rasool went on to become a politician in the African National Congress (ANC), the party of the country’s first post-apartheid president, Nelson Mandela.

News website Semafor reported last week that Rasool has failed to secure routine meetings with State Department officials and key Republican party figures since Trump took office in January. (Perhaps not coincidentally, while Musk’s Starlink internet provider operates or is due to launch in 16 African countries, it is unavailable in South Africa, where foreign investors must cede 30% of equity to Black shareholders to get a telecoms licence.)

This is the latest in an escalating dispute between the US administration and Africa’s most-industrialised country. In February, Trump signed an executive order offering white South Africans a rapid pathway to US citizenship, claiming that they are being discriminated against, saying, without citing evidence, that “South Africa is confiscating land” and that “certain classes of people” are being treated “very badly”.

Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that “any farmer (with family!) from South Africa, seeking to flee that country for reasons of safety, will be invited into the United States of America with a rapid pathway to citizenship”.

An executive order Trump issued on February 7 that froze US assistance to South Africa cited “unjust racial discrimination” against white Afrikaners. It referenced the new Expropriation Act, claiming it targets Afrikaners by allowing the government to take away private land.

“As long as South Africa continues to support bad actors on the world stage and allows violent attacks on innocent disfavoured minority farmers, the United States will stop aid and assistance to the country,” the White House said in a statement.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in January signed into law a bill that would make it easier for the state to expropriate land in the public interest – in some cases without compensating the owner – a policy he defended as part of efforts to reduce racial disparities in ownership in the Black-majority nation.

South Africa’s 2022 census shows that white people – including Afrikaners, who are largely descended from Dutch settlers who first arrived in the 17th Century – comprised 7.2% of the population. A 2018 land audit by the South African government, showed that white farmers owned 72% of the country’s privately-held farmland.

Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) hangs in the balance

While South Africa does not rely on US aid, it benefits under the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants products from dozens of African nations preferential access to the market of the US – South Africa’s largest trading partner after China.

In 2023, bilateral trade totalled approximately $21bn, with South African exports to the US valued at just under $14bn and US exports to South Africa at $7.1bn, according to the US Census Bureau. Approximately 600 American companies operate in South Africa.

Some US lawmakers have been lobbying the US administration to strip South Africa of AGOA benefits over its ICJ case and warm ties with China, Russia and Iran. Among them is Andy Ogles of Tennessee, a congressman from Tennessee, who said on X: “South Africa hates native whites, loves terrorists and consists of communists. It’s time to revoke South Africa’s duty-free treatments and their AGOA trade preferences”.

The “loves terrorists” charge seems to be an apparent reference to South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over its handling of the war with Hamas, which the US State Department designated as a foreign terrorist organisation in October 1997.

Bloomberg reported in mid-February that South Africa was “preparing to pitch a bilateral trade agreement to the US if President Donald Trump’s administration revokes the nation’s preferential access to the world’s biggest economy as relations between them sour”, citing people with knowledge of the matter, who said the South African government considers such an accord better than preferential treatment because it would be a negotiated deal.

AGOA is set to expire in September, but US senators introduced a bill last year to extend it until 2041. To qualify, countries cannot engage in activities purported to undermine US national security or foreign-policy interests, engage in gross violations of human rights or provide support for acts of “terror”.

Israel, Russia, the global south ... and race

Bilateral relations became strained under the Biden administration when South Africa took a nonaligned stance on the war between Russia and Ukraine but continued to play an active part in working to expand the BRICS bloc, originally comprised of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

It further deteriorated when a Russian ship, the Lady R, docked at a naval base near Cape Town in December 2022. Then-US Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety called a press conference to assert, without providing evidence, that weapons were loaded onto the Russian ship (it turned out to be food).

While the Trump administration may not have objected to South Africa providing military equipment to Russia, like the Biden administration, it is a firm supporter of Israel, and takes issue with South Africa’s decision to accuse Israel of genocide at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

South Africa has continued to work to build a coalition from the global south to sustain international legal pressure regarding Gaza, showing its commitment to maintaining an independent foreign-policy stance, despite US pressure, noted Imraan Buccus, a senior research associate at South Africa’s Auwal Socio-Economic Research Institute and a research fellow at the University of the Free State, in an analysis published in Foreign Policy magazine on March 10.

“Trump’s [executive order freezing aid] mentions the accusation of genocide levelled against Israel by Pretoria but focuses on the South African government’s extensive affirmative action policies, its plans for further land reform, and claims that Afrikaners are being targeted for hostile treatment by the state. This claim is patently untrue but follows years of attempts by the Afrikaner right to build relations with the right in the United States and Europe,” Buccus writes.

“Within South Africa, the leading figures who have been pushing hard in recent years to demand that South Africa abandon its nonaligned position on the Russia-Ukraine war, exit the BRICS grouping, withdraw the ICJ case, and align itself with the United States come from among the country’s white English-speaking minority and not the Afrikaner right. A set of think tanks and media projects, such as the Brenthurst Foundation and the Daily Maverick, among others, have pushed hard to demand that South Africa fully ally itself with the West.

“Trump’s order has now pushed the most stridently pro-Western voices to the margins of society as the bulk of South African opinion, including among whites, moves towards opposing Trump’s actions. Indeed, leading Afrikaner figures and organisations have made it clear that they prefer to remain in South Africa rather than to become refugees in the United States.”

It may 'play in Peoria', but what about Pretoria?

Rubio was not the only one to boycott the G-20 foreign ministers meeting in February. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also opted out of the meeting in Cape Town after the US objected to the themes of “solidarity, equality and sustainability” (reminiscent of the diversity, equality and inclusion (DEI) initiative that is anathema to Trump and his supporters; recall that his hatchetman Musk has also attacked South Africa for what he says are its “racist ownership” laws that stop him from taking Starlink to the country unless he meets affirmative action requirements).

Buccus writes that a permanent deterioration in relations between Washington and Pretoria would likely accelerate South Africa’s pivot towards alternative power centres and firmly into the orbit of geopolitical competitors while achieving few concrete policy objectives.

“A recalibration that acknowledges South Africa’s positions, including its support for Palestine, while addressing specific areas of concern would better serve long-term US interests than pushing South Africa more firmly into the BRICS alliance,” he writes. 

“The government of national unity (GNU), formed after the ANC’s electoral losses in May 2024, has been plagued by internal contradictions and policy disagreements since its inception. Trump’s actions have, ironically, provided an external threat around which these disparate parties have rallied.”

Marco Rubio’s diplomatic attack on South Africa is punishment for standing up to Israel

 

The Future of Nigeria's Energy Sector Remains Unclear

By Felicity Bradstock - Mar 15, 2025

• The Trump administration is encouraging African nations, including Nigeria, to develop their fossil fuel reserves, potentially impacting Nigeria's renewable energy plans.
• 
  
• Nigeria, while rich in oil, is also pursuing renewable energy projects to diversify its energy mix and address energy insecurity, with support from international organizations.
• 
  
• The country is actively developing solar and wind energy projects, including mini-grids and solar module assembly plants, to enhance access to electricity for millions of Nigerians.
• 
  

Nigeria has long been known for being an oil-rich state, as the biggest fossil fuel producer in Africa. In recent years, the government has increasingly focused on expanding the country’s renewable energy capacity to boost its energy security. However, this month, President Donald Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright pledged to support fossil fuel development across Africa, which could encourage countries such as Nigeria to continue exploiting their oil and gas resources. 

This month, the new Trump administration’s energy secretary Chris Wright told African leaders that Africa needed more energy of all kinds, including coal, to ensure its energy security. Wright stated, “This government has no desire to tell you what you should do with your energy system… It’s a paternalistic post-colonial attitude that I just can’t stand.” The Energy Secretary added, “We’ve had years of Western countries shamelessly saying don’t develop coal, coal is bad… That’s just nonsense, 100 percent nonsense. Coal transformed our world and made it better.”

Around 600 million of Africa’s 1.5 billion population does not have access to power. This has driven many countries across the continent to tap into their oil, gas, and coal reserves to enhance their energy security, at a time when much of the world is attempting to transition away from fossil fuels. As many African countries undergo industrialisation, the energy demand is increasing. While several international organisations and country leaders are encouraging African leaders to develop their renewable energy capacity rather than tap into their fossil fuel reserves, very few are putting their money where their mouth is. 

Nigeria’s oil industry is dominated by two U.S. oil majors, ExxonMobil and Chevron. In 2023, Nigeria's proven crude oil reserves totalled 37.5 billion barrels and it was producing an average of 1.5 million bpd of crude. Nigeria joined OPEC in 1971 and it is now the 16th-biggest oil producer worldwide. Nevertheless, over 80 million Nigerians do not have access to electricity, out of a population of around 228 million, according to a 2021 World Bank report. This suggests that oil and gas alone have not met the country’s energy demand. 

To address the issue of energy insecurity, the Nigerian government has increasingly sought to expand its renewable energy capacity, to diversify its energy mix. The government aims for renewable energy to contribute nearly 60 percent of Nigeria’s energy demand by 2050. In 2023, the government collaborated with the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to develop the Renewable Energy Roadmap Nigeria to assess the renewable energy deployment potential to 2050. The report outlined Nigeria’s potential to develop its solar and wind energy, hydropower, and biomass sectors. 

In recent years, Nigeria has made strides in developing its renewable energy sector. This month, the government signed a $200 million agreement with the pan-African Distributed Renewable Energy (DRE) company WeLight to develop hundreds of renewable mini-grids to deliver stable power to millions of people in rural regions and urban suburbs. The project is backed by the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB). The plan is to develop 400 mini-grids and 50 MetroGrids across the country to enhance access to electricity, supporting between 1.5 and 2 million people. WeLight will work with Nigeria's Rural Electrification Agency (REA) to develop the project. 

Also this month, Nigeria collaborated with a United Nations agency to create a fund to finance the deployment of distributed renewable energy solutions, such as solar home systems and mini-grids. Nigeria hopes to raise $500 million to support its renewable energy aims. The fund is backed by the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority and the UN’s Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) and will be managed by infrastructure investment platform Africa50. The fund is part of the Mission 300 programme, led by the World Bank and AfDB, which aims to provide electricity to 300 million people in Africa by the end of the decade.

Nigeria’s REA also signed an agreement with Lagos-based renewables developer Oando Clean Energy to develop a 1.2 GW solar module assembly plant. The facility forms part of the $950 million Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up (DARES) project, which is funded by the World Bank and Japan International Cooperation Agency. The project is expected to provide the solar components required to provide clean electricity to 17.5 million Nigerians. As the first solar modular assembly plant with a recycling line in Africa, it is expected to establish Nigeria as a renewable energy hub. 

While the U.S. Trump administration is encouraging oil-rich countries across Africa, such as Nigeria, to develop their untapped fossil fuel reserves, much of the rest of the world is pressuring countries across the continent to invest in the expansion of their renewable energy capacity. Many African country leaders have called for higher levels of funding to support a green transition, and if this financing is not provided, many will likely invest in the expansion of their oil and gas industries to meet increasing energy needs and bring in revenue. However, Nigeria, with support from the World Bank and the AfDB, is gradually expanding its renewable energy sector to diversify its energy mix and enhance its energy security. 

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

NON-OPEC

Guyana’s Oil Exports Skyrocket—And Europe’s Refiners Love It

'By Tsvetana Paraskova - Mar 15, 2025

Guyana’s oil production and exports are surging, with output exceeding 660,000 bpd and expected to reach 1.3 million bpd by 2030.

Europe is the biggest buyer of Guyana’s crude, with 66% of its exports heading there in 2024.

ExxonMobil and partners are expanding operations, planning gas-to-shore projects, increasing gas production, and considering LNG exports, further strengthening Guyana’s energy sector.



Five years after an Exxon-led consortium produced the first oil offshore Guyana, the country is pumping more than 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude and has become South America’s fifth-largest oil exporter.

Guyana and ExxonMobil expect oil production to jump to 1.3 million bpd by 2030, which would double the current output volumes.

With higher production came a surge in Guyana’s crude oil exports in recent years. More than half of these are going to Europe, where refiners have been increasingly appreciating Guyana’s crude grades—Liza, Unity Gold, and Payara Gold. These crudes are sweeter and lighter compared to the crude of some other South American exporters, such as Mexico or Colombia.

Since the end of 2019, when Guyana exported its first crude oil cargo, the country has become the fifth biggest exporter in Latin America, after Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, and Colombia.

Guyana’s plans for developing its burgeoning petroleum industry don’t stop with increasing its share of the global oil market.


The country and ExxonMobil are considering gas-to-shore projects to feed the fertilizer and aluminum industry and power and cool data centers.

Related: U.S. Rig Count Stalls as Oil Prices Keep Drillers in Check

While drawing up these plans for utilizing natural gas, Guyana is boosting its crude oil production and shipments.

Last year, Guyana’s exports jumped by 54% from a year earlier amid strong demand from Europe.

Crude oil exports averaged about 582,000 bpd in 2024, as ExxonMobil and its partners Hess Corp and CNOOC of China continued to boost production from the offshore Stabroek Block, where more than 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels have been discovered to date.


The crudes from Guyana have found a favorable market in Europe due to the proximity, quality, and easy access to sellers, an anonymous trader of Latin American crude told Reuters in January.

“Europe is the ideal market for Guyana's crudes,” the trader noted.

The lighter and sweeter crude from Guyana has boosted its market share in Europe, and most of Guyana’s exports went to Europe last year. A total of 66% of Guyana’s oil was shipped to Europe in 2024, up from 62% of Guyana’s oil that headed to Europe in 2023.

In January 2025, Europe’s share of Guyana’s exports was even higher, at 75%, as fifteen out of twenty cargoes were taken by Europe, according to vessel-tracking services cited by Guyanese outlet OilNOW.

Guyana’s crude is set to further boost its market share in Europe and globally in the coming years as output in the country is expected to jump to over 1 million bpd before the end of the decade.


Guyana already produces more than 660,000 bpd of crude from the Exxon-operated block. Production capacity in Guyana is expected to surpass 1.7 million barrels per day, with gross production growing to 1.3 million barrels per day by 2030, Exxon says.

Guyana is now the third largest per-capita oil producer in the world, according to the U.S. supermajor.

Surging oil production and exports helped Guyana’s economy grow by 43.6% last year, marking the fifth straight year of double-digit GDP growth, which began just as Guyana became an oil producer.

The oil and gas sector development is continuing, with Exxon considering additional projects to tap both the crude and natural gas riches offshore Guyana.

Exxon and partners expect to produce up to 1.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas and 290,000 barrels per day of condensate at the Longtail project, the consortium’s eighth project offshore Guyana, which will also be the biggest natural gas development in the prolific Stabroek Block to date.


Some of the more than a dozen discoveries in the Stabroek Block have good natural gas resources, and Exxon has decided it would develop these for gas-to-power onshore and potentially for LNG exports in the future.

Last month, Alistair Routledge, president and general manager at ExxonMobil Guyana, said that the supermajor plans to boost gas production in Guyana and could consider gas exports at a later stage.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

Aging Infrastructure Threatens the Future of European Energy

By Felicity Bradstock - Mar 15, 2025,

• Europe faces a critical need to upgrade its aging electricity grid, requiring $633 billion in investments by 2030, to support renewable energy integration.
• 
  
• The lack of grid capacity is delaying or halting numerous renewable energy projects, hindering Europe's ability to achieve its climate targets.
• 
  
• Solutions such as an EU independent system operator and a dedicated grid fund are being proposed to address fragmented networks and financing challenges.

As Europe’s energy demand continues to grow, the region’s transmission infrastructure is in dire need of an upgrade. There have long been concerns about investment in Europe’s grid lagging behind renewable energy investment and therefore delaying the deployment of clean power. However, recent assessments have demonstrated just how imminently grid modernisation is needed, if the region hopes to achieve its end-of-decade climate goals. 

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), at least 1,500 GW of renewable energy projects have been halted or delayed due to the lack of available grid connections. In the EU, 11 out of 26 countries are basing their grid investment decisions on plans that assume lower wind and solar capacities at the end of the decade than those outlined in national targets according to a 2024 analysis. This means that there may not be enough grid capacity to connect new wind and solar projects as governments and private companies invest heavily in the expansion of Europe’s renewable energy capacity. In terms of solar power, there could be a mismatch of around 205 GW, which is almost equivalent to the EU’s total installed solar capacity of 263 GW today.

Several European countries are now facing the high cost involved with managing an oversaturated grid system. For example, in 2023, Spain spent more on managing its congested transmission network than it invested in grid improvement projects. However, there is some optimism as, in November 2023, the European Commission (EC) established an Action Plan to accelerate the expansion of electricity grids. The EC had already established a supportive legal framework for the rollout of electricity grids across Europe, including the revised TEN-E regulation, the revised Renewable Energy Directive, and proposals for a Net-Zero Industry Act and a reformed electricity market design.

Between 2023 and 2030, electricity consumption in the EU is expected to increase by around 60 percent. The report states that 40 percent of the EU’s distribution grids are over 40 years old and, with cross-border transmission capacity due to double by 2030, it will require $633 billion of investment to upgrade the region’s grid.

Maroš Šef?ovi?, the Executive Vice-President for European Green Deal, Interinstitutional Relations and Foresight, stated, “Grids are the backbone of our energy system. Our Action Plan will ensure better support to infrastructure planning, development and operation, central steps to connect Europe’s growing renewable energy sources to the end-users that need them – from households to hydrogen producers. Through concerted efforts, we can develop more efficient, smarter and more integrated energy infrastructure, thereby making sure that we deliver the clean energy that we need to succeed in the green transition.”

Nevertheless, Europe is facing increasing pressure to upgrade its grid at an accelerated rate to achieve its 2030 climate targets and meet the region’s growing power demand. As companies across Europe invest heavily in the expansion of the region’s renewable energy capacity, many are calling for faster and bigger transmission infrastructure projects. The CEO of the Swedish utility Vattenfall, Anna Borg, said that Europe requires both more transmission capacity to allow power to flow more easily between market areas and optimise prices and more clean electricity production. “Both from a sort of independence perspective and the security perspective, because also in the geopolitical context, there is a need to be more self-sufficient in Europe in general, Borg added.

The Brussels-based electric sector association Eurelectric said this month that Europe must modernise its ageing electricity grid and double distribution network investments to $70.5 billion in 2025 to connect new green energy projects and meet the rising power demand. Eurelectric’s Secretary General Kristian Ruby said“We are revisiting energy security because of major changes in the geopolitical landscape.” He stressed that while Europe has long benefitted from cheap imported energy, the region must “revamp [its] energy policies and get ready to compete in a more unforgiving world… We need to rethink energy security and focus on not being too dependent on anyone.”  

A February Bruegel policy brief emphasises that it is more than just funding that is needed to effectively expand and upgrade Europe’s grid system. Fragmented networks across the region and unequal financing abilities across member states continue to cause delays to upgrades. The brief recommends the establishment of a European independent system operator (EU ISO) to enhance transparent information exchange and reduce regulatory bias towards capital-intensive investments and individual national interests above the European benefit. In addition, the creation of a grid fund could help overcome imperfect cost-sharing debates, which often slow projects. 

There is a clear need to upgrade Europe’s transmission network as the region increases its renewable energy capacity in response to the growing demand for clean energy. Much of the region’s grid system is outdated and ill-prepared for the influx of green energy looking to be connected over the next decade. However, with several countries involved in the discussion, it makes any upgrade to the system complicated to advance. While the European Commission has made strides in simplifying the legal framework for grid modernisation and putting an action plan in place, greater efforts must be taken to rapidly advance the EU’s transmission infrastructure to help the region achieve its climate targets. 

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

India Strives for 500 GW Non-Fossil Power by 2030

By Haley Zaremba - Mar 15, 2025, 

Despite issuing record-breaking clean energy tenders, India is experiencing weak demand and undersubscription due to complex tender structures and transmission delays, which threaten its 500 GW non-fossil power capacity target by 2030.

India's recent economic slowdown and past failures to meet clean energy goals have raised concerns about investor interest and the availability of low-cost financing for future renewable energy projects.

While India is making incremental progress in decarbonizing its economy, current renewable energy capacity additions are insufficient to meet the nation's ambitious targets and have significant global implications for energy markets and emissions.



India has been courting foreign and domestic investment in its clean energy industry in an effort to shore up energy security and meet the nation’s lofty decarbonization goals. But a new report reveals that while India has offered up record-breaking clean energy tenders, they have been met with weak demand, revealing a number of major obstacles for the sector.

The Indian government is targeting a minimum of 500 GW of non-fossil power capacity by 2030. This represents a huge uptick from their current levels, which clock in at approximately 165 GW. India issued a historic 73 gigawatts of utility-scale renewable energy tenders last year as part of a push to meet this goal, but about 8.5 GW of those tenders remain undersubscribed. That’s five-fold more than the rate of undersubscription seen in 2023.

In simple terms, this means that the Indian government offered up a massive 73 gigawatts worth of contracts for clean energy companies to compete over, which would seem like a great headline for the country’s clean energy industry. However, not all of the contracts were ultimately awarded due to insufficient interest on the part of would-be competitors.

To explain this flagging subscription rate, a Reuters write-up points to “lower demand due to complex tender structures and delays in interstate transmission readiness,” based on findings from a report recently published by the U.S.-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

"Delays in project implementation pose a significant challenge to India’s renewable energy target for 2030," said IEEFA report co-author Ashita Srivastava. "(The) issues ... could deter investor interest in future renewable energy projects in India, potentially affecting the availability of low-cost financing from large-scale investors," Srivastava said.


And that’s bad news for everyone. As stated by the International Energy Agency, “India’s energy choices matter. They have direct and far-reaching effects on the lives of a growing population, and major indirect effects on the rest of the world through their impact on energy markets, emissions, and flows of technology and capital.”

India – the world’s most populous country – has seen rapid economic growth over the last few years, and recently overtook the United Kingdom as the fifth biggest economy in the world. What is more, by 2030, India is expected to surpass both Germany and Japan to become the third largest economy in the world.

But in 2024 India’s economic growth unexpectedly stalled out, thereby “revealing major cracks in the foundation.” After a whopping 8.2 percent growth rate over the last fiscal year, the country’s rate of economic growth plummeted to 5.4 percent in the summer of 2024. And now, projections for this fiscal year place the growth rate at a comparatively modest 6.4 percent.

But this year is not the first year that India fell far short of its clean energy targets – even while the economy was going gangbusters, clean energy capacity additions fell far short of government goals. India had previously targeted 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022, but as of last year fossil fuels accounted for more than two-thirds of the country’s total power generation. In 2024, less than 28 GW of solar and wind capacity was added to Indian grids.

To be sure, India is making incremental progress on decarbonizing its economy. Last month marked the nation’s sixth straight month of decreasing thermal coal imports, for example. But current renewable energy capacity additions are nowhere close to where they need to be to be on any feasible pathway toward 500 GW of non-fossil power capacity by 2030.


But not all reports are as pessimistic as the recent IEEFA publication. Just two months ago S&P Global reported that the record-breaking tenders signal positive trends for investment in India’s clean energy sector, even if a bit undersubscribed and overly ambitious. “A substantial increase in capacity requested via competitive tenders during the last few years represents a growing appetite for renewable energy in India driven by rising power demand, ambitious policy targets and a maturing competitive landscape,” the report stated.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

Trump Energy Policies Reshape Renewables Sector

By Metal Miner - Mar 15, 2025

The Trump administration declared a national energy emergency to accelerate fossil fuel development and imposed tariffs that increased costs for the renewable energy sector.
Negotiations between the US and Ukraine regarding Ukraine's mineral reserves ended without an agreement, leading to the temporary suspension of US military aid.
The Renewables Monthly Metals Index saw a slight increase, while the Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel Monthly Metals Index experienced a decrease.



The Renewables MMI (Monthly Metals Index) moved sideways month over month, increasing a slight 1.86%. Meanwhile, renewable energy projects could face some challenges from a combination of tariffs and changing Federal policies.


Trump Administration’s Energy Policies Reshape the Renewable Sector

Since taking power in January, the Trump administration has reshaped the U.S. renewable energy landscape by introducing some significant policy changes. So far, the White House has declared a national energy emergency, imposed tariffs on critical metals and rolled back environmental regulations.
Trump Declares National Energy Emergency

On January 20, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order declaring a national energy emergency. The move aims to accelerate fossil fuel development and eliminate regulatory barriers that slow energy infrastructure projects.

Supporters claim this move strengthens U.S. energy exports and creates jobs in the oil, gas and coal industries. However, critics argue that the decision prioritizes fossil fuels over renewables and undermines environmental protections.
New Tariffs Drive Up Renewable Energy Costs


The administration also implemented a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum to protect domestic producers. While the policy aims to boost U.S. manufacturing, it has raised some costs for industries that rely on these metals, including the renewable energy sector. For instance, wind turbine and solar panel manufacturers now face higher material expenses, which could slow renewable energy expansion.

The Trump administration also revoked pollution control rules that limited soot emissions from coal-fired power plants. By reversing these restrictions, the White House ensured older, high-emission plants can remain operational without costly upgrades. Industry advocates claim the decision supports the coal sector, but environmental groups warn that increased emissions could harm public health.
High-Stakes Negotiations Over Ukraine’s Mineral Reserves

In February 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy engaged in critical discussions at the Oval Office in Washington, D.C. The meeting primarily focused on a potential deal that would allow the U.S. to tap into Ukraine’s vast critical mineral wealth. In exchange, Ukraine sought continued U.S. military aid amid its ongoing conflict with Russia.

Ukraine holds significant reserves of rare earth elements and lithium, with estimates valuing these untapped resources at approximately $500 billion.
Tensions Rise in Oval Office Talks

The negotiations took a bad turn during the televised meeting between the two leaders. As discussions progressed, Trump pressed for broader U.S. access to Ukraine’s mineral deposits.


Zelenskyy pushed back, stressing the need for fair terms and expressing concerns over the implications for Ukraine’s sovereignty. The talks ultimately collapsed without a formal agreement, prompting the temporary suspension of U.S. military aid to Ukraine.
Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel MMI

Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel (GOES MMI) dropped slightly month-over-month. In total, prices fell by 3.84%.



By the Metal Miner team

 

Renewable Energy Target Faces Challenges in Australia

By Rystad Energy - Mar 16, 2025

• Australia's 2025 federal election will be a referendum on nuclear energy versus a high renewable energy target, with the outcome significantly impacting the country's long-term energy strategy.
• Immediate energy security concerns, including gas shortages and grid instability, necessitate reliance on gas and LNG to bridge the gap during Australia's energy transition.
• Despite ambitious renewable energy targets, challenges such as infrastructure bottlenecks and the retirement of coal plants threaten to create power shortfalls, making dispatchable generation critically important.
• 
  

Energy policy is set to take center stage at Australia’s upcoming federal election, which will be held on or before 17 May 2025. The election will serve as a referendum on nuclear energy, aiming to address the country’s long-term energy needs while tackling rising energy prices and the high cost of living. However, grid instability, power shortfalls, a looming gas shortage and infrastructure bottlenecks have created a perfect storm that could derail the country’s more immediate energy transition as energy security issues come to light.

Australian voters will face a crucial decision: an 82% renewable energy target under the incumbent Labor government or the Liberal-National Party's (LNP) proposal to build 13 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear power by 2051 to replace coal generation. Rystad Energy’s research forecasts that achieving the 82% target will be challenging, with more realistic projections under Labor estimating a renewable share of around 65%: a shortfall of 17%, even under the most optimistic scenarios. If the LNP wins, the country’s renewable energy share is expected to be lower due to the party's focus on nuclear power, making the 82% target a distant goal and highlighting the underlying challenges affecting Australia's energy transition, regardless of which party emerges victorious.

As clean energy reliability becomes a priority ahead of the election, further research from Rystad Energy points to an urgent need for gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Australia. By 2028, New South Wales (NSW), South Australia and Victoria (VIC) are projected to face capacity shortfalls due to the retirement of coal and gas plants like Yallourn West and Eraring. To mitigate this loss, gas generators and gas-peaking facilities—used during peak demand—will be essential. Batteries and pumped hydro are also expected to play a crucial role, with 3 GW projected to be energized by year-end, addressing grid instability in one of the world’s most unpredictable electricity markets. However, infrastructure bottlenecks and longer supply wait times may hinder the timely development of renewables and energy storage, significantly affecting energy security for Australians.

NSW, VIC and Tasmania (TAS) are already testing their gas supply security for winter with steeply declining production from legacy offshore Victorian fields increasing their reliance on Queensland. Compared to the crisis year of 2022, these states now have severely diminished buffer capacity, which could trigger another price surge if multiple supply and demand shocks occur. Even in our most optimistic scenario, LNG imports to Australia are looking like an inevitability,

Kaushal Ramesh, Vice President, Gas & LNG Research, Rystad Energy

If Labor wins the upcoming federal election, Rystad Energy estimates that Australia will add a record 7.2 GW to its grid annually of both renewable energy and gas, primarily in Queensland, Victoria and New South Wales—the highest annual increase in Australia’s history. Conversely, an LNP victory would likely lead to a reduction in solar and wind power deployment, but by how much is the key unknown.

Renewable energy adoption is accelerating at unprecedented rates, and Australia is at the forefront of a battery revolution. However, more action is urgently needed to prevent a power shortfall in the coming years. The continent’s dispatchable generation is nearing critical levels and decisions made today will be pivotal in avoiding blackouts. This challenge extends beyond Australia, as countries around the world are increasingly relying on gas to support their energy transitions. This global shift is driving a surge in demand for gas-powered generation, resulting in longer lead times for the delivery of critical heavy turbine equipment. The window of opportunity to mitigate these challenges is rapidly closing. If we do not act swiftly, we risk an inflationary bubble caused by soaring gas and power prices, resulting in a heightened cost of living for consumers.

Gero Faruggio, Head of Australia, Rystad Energy

To contact our Australian Advisory team, please reach out here.

Learn more with Rystad Energy’s Renewables & Power Solution.

Momentum has been positive under Labor’s term for renewables investment with forecasts from Rystad Energy showing 2025 to be the highest year ever for new capacity energized. A majority of these new additions, primarily under the Labor Party’s ruling, will come from Australia’s fourth pumped hydro project, Kidston, as well as the 660-megawatt alternating current (MWAC) Kurri Kurri gas plant located in the Hunter region of New South Wales. The project from Snowy Hydro will be the largest gas plant to energize in the last 15 years, while Genex’s 250-MWAC Kidston pumped hydro project will be the first pumped hydro project to energize in 41 years.

Additionally, 2.9 GW of utility battery capacity is expected to energize in 2025, with potential for further additions due to the rapid construction and energization timelines for batteries compared to other technologies. These batteries will add an estimated 1.7 to 2.0 terawatt-hours (TWh) of annual demand to the grid. This will add stability to the Australian market by shifting daytime solar output to the evening peak. However, the retirement of aging coal plants, winter heating demand when solar output is low and extreme weather events still need to be addressed. Gas peaking plants could provide backup support, but gas prices, influenced by both domestic and international markets, will impact the cost structure of gas generation facilities. While volatility is expected to subside, these wildcards remain crucial in shaping the future.

By Rystad Energy

Wave Energy Poised for Major Breakthrough

By Felicity Bradstock - Mar 16, 2025

• An Australian startup is pioneering open-access principles in wave energy research, aiming to accelerate development and deployment of this sustainable power source.
• 
  
• Wave energy has the potential to provide consistent, baseload power, unlike solar and wind, which can stabilize energy grids and reduce the need for extensive energy storage.
• 
  
• International interest and investment in wave energy are growing, with significant targets set for ocean energy production by 2050, which could be further boosted by data-sharing and technological advancements.

Wave energy could be primed for a swell of progress thanks to open data sharing. While advancements in wave energy have been piecemeal to date, an Australian startup believes that open-sharing principles can revolutionize research and development in the sector, with potentially huge ramifications for decarbonizing global energy grids. 

Waves contain a huge amount of energy. According to a 2023 figure from the United States Energy Information Administration, “the theoretical annual energy potential of waves off the coasts of the United States was estimated to be as much as 2.64 trillion kilowatthours, which is equal to about 63% of total U.S. utility-scale electricity generation.” The coasts of Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand also offer huge potential for wave energy generation. In Europe, the potential of wave power production is estimated at a whopping 2,800 TWh per year, which is roughly 107.6% of the global nuclear power production as of 2023.

A novel wave-energy converter trial is currently taking place in Albany on the south-western coast of Australia, led by a research team from the Marine Energy Research Australia (MERA) centre at The University of Western Australia (UWA). The model being tested is a ‘Moored Multi-Mode Multibody’ (M4) wave-energy converter which features two steel frames attached to hinged floats. “As the floats rise and fall with each passing wave, the frames rotate like flapping butterfly wings,” explains a recent Nature article describing the project. “This motion drives the generators in the hinges to create electricity.”

Harvesting energy from our oceans could reshape global clean power production, as it could provide baseload energy production with zero carbon emissions. Unlike solar and wind energies, wave energy would be a constant source of power and could therefore help to stabilize energy grids as renewable energies become more prevalent. This would provide a critical complement to wind and solar power, and greatly lessen the need for energy storage technologies such as lithium-ion batteries. Ultimately, the deployment of wave energy would provide a massive boost to international energy security during the clean energy transition.

The team behind the M4 model off the shores of Albany, Australia emphasizes its model’s potential as a baseload renewable energy. “Waves reaching Albany have travelled uninterrupted for thousands of kilometres across the Southern Ocean,” MERA manager Wiebke Ebeling was recently quoted by Nature. “They’re energy-dense, highly consistent, and show little seasonal variability.”

The team also argues that their research is of particular importance to global wave energy research as they are following open-access principles and sharing their data with anyone who is interested in the project’s findings. “Previously, the wave-energy industry has experienced siloed progress,” says MERA director Christophe Gaudin. “Ours is the first fully open-access, wave-energy project, where we will share the lessons learned and the data collected — as well as the power we generate — openly with everybody.”

Accelerating research and development gains in wave energy would be critical to making it a commercial reality. So far, wave energy has simply been too expensive, too difficult to install, and too disconnected from existing grids to make commercial sense. But as technologies advance, we are getting closer to overcoming these challenges. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is expecting 87 TWh of ocean energy to be produced by 2050. The European Union has introduced policy measures to encourage more wave energy projects, with a goal of developing 1 GW of ocean energy capacity by 2030 and 40 GW by 2050. But if MERA’s approach to data-sharing does indeed provide a boost to technological advancement, this projection could easily be adjusted to a higher rate. 

This would have huge impacts on global decarbonization trajectories, provide energy security in an era of demand surges, and provide clean energy alternatives to coastal and island communities that have historically lacked reliable grid connection. Wave energy could even solve the growing problem of AI’s runaway energy footprint. “With such vast potential, wave energy could play a huge role in powering the AI boom,” Forbes recently reported. “Constructing [data centers] near coastal areas would allow them to tap directly into the ocean’s abundant clean energy, creating an efficient solution for growing demand.”

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com 

 

U.S. Carries Out Dozens of Airstrikes on Yemen's Houthi Rebels

A U.S. Navy destroyer launches missiles at Houthi positions, March 15, 2025 (USN)

Published Mar 16, 2025 3:16 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

On Saturday, U.S. Central Command launched its largest-ever campaign of air and naval strikes against Yemen's Houthi militia, striking dozens of sites across the country's northwestern corner. 

In a message on his social media platform, Truth Social, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he had ordered "decisive and powerful military action" against the group in retaliation for its "unrelenting campaign of piracy, violence, and terrorism against American, and other, ships, aircraft, and drones." He demanded that the group's Iranian sponsors immediately halt weapons deliveries and other support for Houthi campaigns. "If you do, beware, because America will hold you fully accountable."

For the first time, the strikes targeted Houthi leaders in addition to the group's military infrastructure and weaponry, and the administration reported that "multiple" senior Houthi personnel were killed. Houthi media outlets reported that more than 30 people died and 100 people were injured in 47 airstrikes, which hit targets in Hodeidah, Bayda, Marib and the Houthi capital of Sanaa. 

Going forward, Trump pledged to use "overwhelming lethal force" until the Houthis stop attacking shipping in the Red Sea. 

The Houthi movement launched attacks at more than 100 vessels last year, killing four seafarers and sinking two vessels, but it largely suspended its campaign in January when Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. As the Gaza ceasefire teeters on the verge of collapse, the group has threatened to renew attacks on merchant shipping in the Red Sea - initially focused on Israeli-linked vessels. 

In a statement Sunday, Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed that the group had targeted the American aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman and her escorts with 18 missiles in retaliation for Saturday's airstrikes. "The [Houthis] will not hesitate to target all American warships in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea in retaliation to the aggression against our country," Saree asserted.