Thursday, June 19, 2025

  

Does China have an Internationalist Foreign Policy?

A number of observant commentators have raised questions about Peoples’ China’s Belt and Road Initiative and more broadly, the foreign policy of the PRC.

Reliable left observers like Ann Garrison, writing in Black Agenda Report, have voiced concerns about Chinese investments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, based on Siddharth Kara’s book, Cobalt Red, How the Blood of the Congo Powers Our Lives. Kara contends that Chinese are engaged in a brutal competition to acquire a raw material essential to battery manufacturing, participating in the highly exploitative practice of artisanal cobalt mining.

More recently, Razan Shawamreh has challenged the PRC’s economic engagement with Israel. Writing in Middle East Eye. Shawamreh cites three different Chinese state-owned companies heavily invested in Israeli firms servicing or operating in illegal settlements — ChemChina, Bright Foods, Fosum Group — that own or have a majority stake in an Israeli corporation. She charges Peoples’ China of hypocritically publicly denouncing Israeli policies while quietly aiding the cause of Israeli settlers.

On May 22, Kim Petersen posted a thoughtful, well reasoned piece on Dissident Voice, entitled “Palestine and the Conscience of China.” Petersen persuasively lauds the many achievements of Peoples’ China. It is easy to forget the century of humiliation that this once proud, advanced society suffered at the hands of European imperialism. After 12 years of fighting Japanese invaders and enduring a bloody civil war costing tens of millions of casualties, China’s advance since — under the leadership of the Communist Party of China — has been truly remarkable.

As Peoples’ China celebrates meeting its goal of becoming a “moderately prosperous” society, it is important to see how far it has come from 1949. When Western apologists for the market economy brag of the aggregate economic gains that global markets have brought to the developing world, they are largely talking about China (and, more recently, Vietnam and India).

By any measure of citizen satisfaction with their government by international surveys, the PRC consistently ranks at or near the top.

At the same time, Petersen raises questions about the seeming inconsistency of the Chinese government’s vocal criticism of Israel’s genocidal policies in Gaza and Peoples’ China’s continuing economic engagement with Israel. The PRC accounts for over 20% of Israeli imports.

Petersen quotes Professor T.P. Wilkinson: “Non-interference is China’s top principle — business comes first. If there is any morality it only applies in China.” And it is precisely China’s moral conscience that Petersen finds wanting.

Nick Corbishley, writing on June 6 in Naked Capitalism adds:

However, not everyone is trying — or even pretending — to distance themselves from Tel Aviv right now. The People’s Republic of China, for example, is actually seeking to strengthen its ties with Israel.

After initially siding with Palestine (and Hamas) following October 7, Beijing is now looking to rebuild ties with Israel. Just four days ago, as Israel’s Defence Forces were unleashing coordinated attacks on aid depots, China’s ambassador to Israel Xiao Junzheng discussed “deepening China-Israel economic and trade cooperation” with Israel’s Minister of Economy and Industry, Nir Barkat.

Still others ask why Peoples’ China, a self-described socialist country, has failed to replace the Soviet Union in guaranteeing the economic vitality of tiny socialist Cuba– a country starved by a US blockade and harsh sanctions upon anyone defying that blockade. It is difficult to reconcile the PRC’s modest economic aid to Cuba with China’s $19 billion dollars of annual exports to proscribed Israel.

China’s Foreign Policy in Retrospect

China’s foreign policy is a direct reflection of the political line of the Communist Party of China, a line changing often in the Party’s history. At the 10th National Congress (August, 1973) — the last before Mao’s death — Zhou Enlai delivered the main report. He affirmed that:

In the last fifty years our Party has gone through ten major struggles between the two lines… In the future, even after classes have disappeared… there will still be two-line struggles between the advanced and the backward and between the correct and the erroneous… there is the struggle between the socialist road and the capitalist road, there is the danger of capitalist restoration… The Tenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China (Documents), p. 16 [my emphasis]

Zhou explains that the opposition in the last two Congresses — led by Liu Shaoqi and Lin Biao — advocated that the main contradiction facing the party was “not the contradiction between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie, but that ‘between the advanced socialist system and the backward productive forces of society’”. In short, the two lines continually challenging the Party, as explained at the tenth congress, were that of the “productionists” — those giving priority to the development of the productive forces — and that of the class warriors — those giving priority to political struggle.

The CPC’s failure to simultaneously advance the productive forces and, at the same time, carry out a consistent, comprehensive class line accounts for its often inconsistent foreign policy.

Since the “opening” — the Deng reforms, beginning in 1978 — the productionist line has held sway in the Communist Party of China.

From the time of the rebuilding of the Party based on the rural peasantry after the destruction of its urban working-class base in 1927, Mao had sided with the class warriors.

Even in the era of the united front against Japanese aggression, Mao wrote in On New Democracy (1940) of the necessity of a cultural revolution, a focus on political and cultural struggle over other forms:

A cultural revolution is the ideological reflection of the political and economic revolution and is in their service. In China there is a united front in the cultural as in the political revolution… and the cultural campaign resulted in the outbreak of the December 8th Movement of the revolutionary youth in 1935. And the common result of both was the awakening of the people of the whole country… The most amazing thing of all was that the Kuomintang’s cultural “encirclement and suppression” campaign failed completely in the Kuomintang areas as well, although the Communist Party was in an utterly defenceless position in all the cultural and educational institutions there. Why did this happen? Does it not give food for prolonged and deep thought? It was in the very midst of such campaigns of “encirclement and suppression” that Lu Hsun, who believed in communism, became the giant of China’s cultural revolution… New-democratic culture is national. It opposes imperialist oppression and upholds the dignity and independence of the Chinese nation. It belongs to our own nation and bears our own national characteristics… [my emphasis]

The centrality of cultural revolution likely comes from the class base shaping the trajectory of Chinese Communism. Because the Kuomintang wiped out the CPC’s urban working-class centers in 1927, the Party became based in the rural peasantry, as Mao freely concedes in On New Democracy:

This means that the Chinese revolution is essentially a peasant revolution…. Essentially, mass culture means raising the cultural level of the peasants… And essentially it is the peasants who provide everything that sustains the resistance to Japan and keeps us going. By “essentially” we mean basically, not ignoring the other sections of the people, as Stalin himself has explained. As every schoolboy knows, 80 per cent of China’s population are peasants. So the peasant problem becomes the basic problem of the Chinese revolution and the strength of the peasants is the main strength of the Chinese revolution. In the Chinese population the workers rank second to the peasants in number…

On New Democracy suggests that Mao places primacy of place in the struggle for the support of the peasantry, a struggle that is cultural in form and national in scope. While Mao locates the Party’s battles within the world revolutionary process, he doesn’t see it as an immediate fight for socialism, but apart from it, for China’s national liberation:

This is a time … when the proletariat of the capitalist countries is preparing to overthrow capitalism and establish socialism, and when the proletariat, the peasantry, the intelligentsia and other sections of the petty bourgeoisie in China have become a mighty independent political force under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party. Situated as we are in this day and age, should we not make the appraisal that the Chinese revolution has taken on still greater world significance? I think we should. The Chinese revolution has become a very important part of the world revolution… [my emphasis]

The separation between the proletariat’s role in the capitalist countries and the Party’s “independent” role in shaping a multi-class force could not be clearer.

Absent from the 1940 statement of Mao’s vision is any endorsement of the Communist International’s broad principles of solidarity. Instead, the Party operated under the Three Principles of the People, the CPC’s revision of Sun-Yat Sen’s original Three Principles. On New Democracy defines them as:

Three Great Policies of alliance with Russia, co-operation with the Communist Party and assistance to the peasants and workers. Without each and every one of these Three Great Policies, the Three People’s Principles become either false or incomplete in the new period…

Thus, “alliance with Russia” (USSR) became central to China’s foreign policy and expanded to alliance with other socialist countries. After liberation in 1949, the PRC practiced that line by aiding the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea, especially in repelling the US and its allies as they invaded DPRK territory. The PRC military fought in the DPRK until the armistice of 1953. Over 183,000 Chinese died resisting the invasion of the North.

The CPC established ties with various liberation movements after the Korean War, with Peoples’ China offering military aid and training to many movements in Asia and Africa. At the same time, the PRC adopted Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence to lead foreign relations: respect for territory and sovereignty, non-aggression, non-interference in internal affairs, equality and cooperation for common benefit, and peaceful coexistence.

The Five Principles were strikingly similar to the natural-law doctrines adopted by the early mercantilist theorists of bourgeois international relations; they constituted an even less robust version of the eight points of the 1941 Atlantic Charter crafted by Roosevelt and Churchill. Nonetheless, they were enshrined in the constitution of Peoples’ China:

China pursues an independent foreign policy, observes the five principles of mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual nonaggression, mutual noninterference in internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence, keeps to a path of peaceful development, follows a mutually beneficial strategy of opening up, works to develop diplomatic relations and economic and cultural exchanges with other countries, and promotes the building of a human community with a shared future. [my emphasis]

By the end of the 1950s, The CPC had rejected the first of the “three great policies”: the “alliance with Russia”. The PRC had embarked on a period of bitter conflict with the USSR, culminating with a split in the unity of the World Communist Movement. It is source of great irony that many of the charges the CPC made against the Soviets in the Mao era were and are features of China today that have drawn the same charges from some on the left: The Chinese attacked the Soviet policy of peaceful coexistence with the US, taunting the US as a paper tiger; they accused the Soviets of being “social-imperialist” intent on global hegemony; they claimed a restoration of capitalism in the Soviet Union; they accused the Soviet Party of revising Marxism-Leninism. All charges that resonate for some in current policies of Peoples’ China.

It is difficult to reconcile the Five Principles with the PRC support for the US proxies in the former Portuguese African colonies. For over a decade, the PRC sided with South Africa, Israel, the US, and bogus liberation movements in Angola, Mozambique, and Guinea-Bissau, delivering weapons, training, and material support to surrogates fighting the internationally recognized freedom fighters. It was left for thousands of Cuban internationalists to give their lives to finally close the door on this ugly chapter and open the door to the fall of Apartheid.

It is difficult to reconcile the Five Principles with the PRC 1979 invasion of Vietnam, ostensibly in response to Democratic Vietnam’s overthrow of the Khmer Rouge — an intervention, if principally motivated, that cannot be squared with the PRC’s vocal denunciation of the Warsaw alliance’s engagement in Czechoslovakia in 1968.

It is difficult to reconcile the twists and turns of Peoples’ China’s foreign policies with its once radical denouncement of Soviet foreign policy as “social-imperialist.” The late, estimable Al Szymanski– a scrupulous researcher– met those charges in great detail (“Soviet Socialism and Proletarian Internationalism” in The Soviet Union: Socialist or Social-Imperialist?, 1983), showing that Soviet “export of capital” outside of the socialist community was minimal, largely limited to establishing enterprises that expedited trade. Soviet assistance was limited almost entirely to countries outside of or escaping the tyranny of global markets. Soviet trade was minimal — Szymanski argued that it was the world’s most self-sufficient system (no doubt often through forced isolation). Its importing of raw material was minimal: “In short the Soviet economy, unlike those of all Western imperialist countries… has no… need to subordinate less developed countries to obtain raw materials.”

Also, the Soviet Union frequently paid higher prices for imported goods than market prices. Citing Asha Datar, “[O]f the 12 leading export commodities studied…, six were consistently purchased by the USSR at higher than their world prices, three usually purchased at prices higher than those paid by the capitalist countries, and two purchased on a year to year basis sometimes above and sometimes below the world market price.”

Suffice it to say, the Soviet Union substantially subsidized trade with fraternal countries, especially within the socialist community (CMEA), Cuba receiving especially generous terms of exchange.

It would be interesting to compare the PRC’s current foreign policy with the internationalist standards set by the former Soviet Union.

Nonetheless, Peoples’ China — since the victory of the productionist line under Deng’s leadership — has largely been a force for stability in international relations. Over the last thirty or so years, the PRC has sought to maintain a peaceful stage for its trade-based economic expansion while the US and its capitalist allies have engaged in one bloody, imperialist adventure after another. Entry into the global market and acceptance into its market-based institutions has been well served by its Five Principles foreign policy.

But it has been naive to expect capitalist great powers to respect the high-minded, Enlightenment values of the Five Principles and simply stand by while the PRC rises to challenge their dominance of the world economy. Since Engels’ early writings, Marxists have understood that competition is the motor of the commodity-based economy. And since Lenin, Marxists have understood that competition between monopoly capitals and their hosts have spawned aggression and war.

It is equally naive — or disingenuous — to equate the Five Principles with the proletarian internationalism, class solidarity that has been embraced by the international Communist movement throughout the twentieth century. From Comintern activity, to the internationalist sacrifices made for democratic Spain, to the generous support for liberation movements, and the aid to the people of Vietnam, militant, principled internationalism differs fundamentally from the neutrality embodied in the Five Principles. The Five Principles serve a world with no injustice, a world without class struggle, a world without aggression and war.

Indeed, the solidarity advocated in the PRC constitution — “China consistently opposes imperialism, hegemonism and colonialism, works to strengthen its solidarity with the people of all other countries, supports oppressed peoples and other developing countries in their just struggles to win and safeguard their independence and develop their economies, and strives to safeguard world peace and promote the cause of human progress” — is inconsistent with the neutrality and non-intervention of the Five Principles, in any realistic sense.

Where neutrality may have borne few negative consequences during the PRC’s isolation from global markets, China’s profound economic relations with virtually every country in the twenty-first century, do have consequences, consequences of enormous moral impact.

Like other countries that engage economically or refrain from engaging economically (sanctions, tariffs, boycotts, blockades, etc.), the PRC must be judged by that engagement.

With the daily slaughter of Gazan civilians, the brutal actions of Israel cannot be separated from its trading partners: China, the US, Germany, Italy, Turkiye, Russia, France, South Korea, India, and Spain, in descending order of dollar volume of exports to Israel.

And now with the brazen, unprovoked Israeli attack on its putative “friend” Iran, the neutrality of the Five Principles is even less defensible. The “win-win” strategy of many CPC leaders and their allies is a utopian dream that social justice cannot afford.

Greg Godels writes on current events, political economy, and the Communist movement from a Marxist-Leninist perspective. Read other articles by Greg, or visit Greg's website.

China Now Projected to Grow Three Times as Fast as the United States



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The World Bank came out with its updated projections for economic growth for 2025. They showed slower growth for pretty much the whole world. The main factor in the slowing is the tariffs that the Trump administration has imposed on most of our trading partners, as well as their retaliation.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the United States had the sharpest slowing with its growth for 2025 now projected at just 1.4 percent. This should perhaps be expected given that growth was actually a small negative in the first quarter of this year. Just to remind people: The economy grew 2.8 percent last year and was almost universally projected to grow at a comparable rate in 2025. This slowdown in growth really should be considered as Trump’s handiwork.

The other noteworthy item in these projections is that China’s growth is still projected to be 4.5 percent, the same as the World Bank’s prior projection. This means that, at least according to the World Bank, Trump’s tariffs have not done major harm to China’s economy.

Trump’s tariffs may end up being one of the biggest self-owns of the century. There are reasonable arguments for trying to rebuild US manufacturing in some sectors, as Biden had done with the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act. However, across-the board tariffs based only on the size of the US bilateral trade deficit with a country do not make any sense, and it looks like the United States is paying a serious price for ill-considered trade policy.

This first appeared on Dean Baker’s Beat the Press blog.

Dean Baker is the senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC. 

 

Not one, but four – revealing the hidden species diversity of bluebottles




Griffith University
Bluebottle 

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A bluebottle on a Gold Coast beach in Australia.

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Credit: Kylie Pitt





Long believed to be a single, globally distributed species drifting freely across the open ocean, the bluebottle – also known as the Portuguese man o’ war – has now been revealed to be a group of at least four distinct species, each with its own unique morphology, genetics, and distribution.

An international research team led by scientists at Yale University, and Australian researchers at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) and Griffith University, uncovered this surprising biodiversity by sequencing the genomes of 151 Physalia specimens from around the world.

The study, published in Current Biology, found strong evidence of reproductive isolation among five genetic lineages, challenging the long-held assumption that the open ocean supported single, well-mixed populations.

“We were shocked, because we assumed they were all the same species,” Griffith’s Professor Kylie Pitt said.

“But the genetic data clearly show they’re not only different, they’re not even interbreeding despite overlapping ranges.

“The bluebottle is uniquely suited to long-distance travel, using its gas-filled float and muscular crest to catch the wind and sail the sea surface.”

Using an integrative approach, the team matched genomic lineages with four distinct physical forms identified from thousands of citizen-science images submitted to iNaturalist.org.

These morphologies – originally proposed as separate species in the 18th and 19th centuries but later dismissed – have now been verified by modern genomic evidence.

The study describes Physalia physalis, P. utriculus, and P. megalista, alongside a newly identified species, Physalia minuta, found near New Zealand and Australia.

Each species is further subdivided into genetically distinct subpopulations shaped by regional winds and ocean currents, according to advanced ocean circulation modelling.

“There's this idea the open oceans all connected, and it's just one species of bluebottle and they're all globally connected because they drift with the wind and the current,” Professor Pitt said.

"But that's absolutely not the case.

“And what's really interesting in Eastern Australia is that we have multiple species that have evolved despite potentially co-existing.

“So why is it that they developed into separate species when you think they'll all be in the same environment, mixing up together? What was the selection pressure that led to the differentiation of the species?”

The researchers said future investigations into the physical, environmental, and biological processes that generated and maintained this genetic variation would be crucial in recalibrating science’s expectations towards open-ocean biodiversity.

In 2022, UNSW were awarded an Australian Research Council Linkage grant for the project ‘Bluebottle dynamics: towards a prediction tool for Surf Life Saving Australia’, which will develop a forecasting method to prevent bluebottle stings, in partnership with Griffith University, Seatech (University of Toulon, France), the Bureau of Meteorology, Surf Life Saving Australia and the NSW Department of Planning and Environment.

The study ‘Population genomics of a sailing siphonophore reveal genetic structure in the open ocean’ has been published in Current Biology.

 

Hope is the key to a meaningful life, according to new research



University of Missouri researchers demonstrate that boosting hope could be a game-changer for mental health and resilience



University of Missouri-Columbia




Hope isn’t just wishful thinking — it’s a powerful emotional force that gives our lives meaning. Now, a new groundbreaking study from the University of Missouri shows it may be even more essential to well-being than happiness or gratitude.

For years, psychology has tied hope to goal-setting and motivation. But a team of researchers led by Megan Edwards and Laura King from Mizzou’s Department of Psychological Sciences is challenging that idea, showing that hope stands apart as one of the strongest positive emotions that directly fosters a sense of meaning.

"Our research shifts the perspective on hope from merely a cognitive process related to goal attainment to recognizing it as a vital emotional experience that enriches life's meaning," said Edwards, who earned a doctorate at Mizzou and is now a postdoctoral scholar at Duke University. “This insight opens new avenues for enhancing psychological well-being.”

Using six studies with more than 2,300 participants from diverse backgrounds, the team analyzed a range of emotions, including amusement, contentment, excitement and happiness. The findings consistently demonstrated that only hope consistently predicted a stronger sense of meaning.

Experiencing meaning in life is a central aspect of psychological functioning, predicting a host of important outcomes, such as happiness, better quality relationships, better physical health and higher income, King, a Curators’ Distinguished Professor of Psychological Sciences, said.

“Experiencing life as meaningful is crucial for just about every good thing you can imagine in a person's life,” King said. “This cornerstone of psychological functioning is not a rare experience — it is available to people in their everyday lives and hope is one of the things that make life feel meaningful.”

How to cultivate more hope in daily life

Since finding meaning in life enhances everything from self-care to relationships and daily routines, the researchers suggest simple ways to build hope each day.

One key approach is to pay attention to and appreciate positive moments — even small ones. While we often think about future milestones, simply noticing when things are going well can foster hope.

Another strategy is to seize opportunities even in chaotic times. When life feels uncertain, recognizing and seizing small opportunities can create a sense of forward momentum.

Additionally, it helps to appreciate growth and potential, both in yourself and others. Recognizing ongoing progress can inspire thoughts of a positive future.

Engaging in caring and nurturing activities is another way to cultivate hope. Just as tending to children or planting trees can symbolize future possibilities, investing time in activities that nurture growth can reinforce a hopeful mindset.

And when things feel bleak, it’s important to remember that nothing is permanent. Situations can change — and hope begins with the belief that they will.

What’s next

King believes their findings may only scratch the surface of hope’s full impact.

Future research will explore the power of hope in especially difficult times, Edwards said. The goal is to develop strategies that help people stay hopeful and find meaning, even when facing adversity.

Hope as a meaningful emotion: Hope, positive affect, and meaning in life” is published in the journal Emotion. Co-authors are Jordan A. Booker and Kevin Cook at Mizzou, and Miao Miao and Yiqun Gan at Peking University in China.

 

Stargazing flight: how Bogong moths use the night sky to navigate hundreds of kilometers




University of South Australia
Bogong moths 

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Australia's iconic bogong moth, which migrates hundreds of kilometres each year to a few select caves in the Australian Alps.

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Credit: Ajay Narendra, Macquarie University




In a world-first discovery, researchers have shown that Australia’s iconic Bogong moth uses constellations of stars and the Milky Way to navigate hundreds of kilometres across the country during its annual migration – making it the first known invertebrate to rely on a stellar compass for long-distance travel.

The landmark study, published today (Thursday 19 June) in Nature, reveals how this unassuming nocturnal moth combines celestial navigation with Earth’s magnetic field to pinpoint a specific destination it has never visited before: the cool alpine caves of the Snowy Mountains, where it hibernates for the summer.

Led by an international team of scientists from Lund University, the Australian National University (ANU), the University of South Australia (UniSA) and other global institutions, the research sheds new light on one of nature’s great migration mysteries, involving approximately four million moths each year.

“Until now, we knew that some birds and even humans could use the stars to navigate long distances, but this is the first time that it’s been proven in an insect,” says Lund University Professor of Zoology, Eric Warrant, who is also a Visiting Fellow at the ANU and an Adjunct Professor at UniSA.

“Bogong moths are incredibly precise. They use the stars as a compass to guide them over vast distances, adjusting their bearing based on the season and time of night.”

Each spring, billions of Bogong moths (Agrotis infusa) emerge from breeding grounds across southeast Australia and fly up to 1000 kilometres to a small number of caves and rocky outcrops in the Australian Alps.

The moths lie dormant in the cool, dark shelters throughout summer, and in autumn make the return journey to breed and die.

Using sophisticated flight simulators and brain recordings in controlled, magnetically neutral environments, the researchers tested how moths orient themselves under different sky conditions.

When presented with natural starry skies and no magnetic field, they consistently flew in the correct migratory direction for the season – southward in spring, northward in autumn.

When the starry skies were rotated 180 degrees, the moths reversed direction accordingly, but when the stars were scrambled, their orientation vanished.

“This proves they are not just flying towards the brightest light or following a simple visual cue,” says Prof Warrant. “They’re reading specific patterns in the night sky to determine a geographic direction, just like migratory birds do.”

Interestingly, when stars were obscured by clouds, the moths maintained their direction using only the Earth’s magnetic field. This dual compass system ensures reliable navigation even in variable conditions.

The team also delved into the neurological basis of this behaviour, identifying specialised neurons in the moth’s brain that respond to the orientation of the starry sky. These cells, found in brain regions responsible for navigation and steering, fire most strongly when the moth is facing southwards.

“This kind of directional tuning shows that the Bogong moth brain encodes celestial information in a surprisingly sophisticated way. It’s a remarkable example of complex navigational ability packed into a tiny insect brain.”

Researchers say the discovery could inform technologies in robotics, drone navigation, and even conservation strategies for species threatened by habitat loss or climate change.

Bogong moth populations have declined sharply in recent years, promoting their listing as vulnerable.

The study underscores the importance of protecting migratory pathways and the dark skies these moths rely on.

“This is not just about a moth  ̶  it’s about how animals read the world around them,” says Prof Warrant. “The night sky has guided human explorers for millennia. Now we know that it guides moths, too.”

Co-author Professor Javaan Chahl, a remote sensing engineer from the University of South Australia, made headlines in August 2024 using the discoveries from a previous study led by Lund University involving dung beetles, who use the Milky Way as a reference point to roll balls of dung in straight lines. Prof Chahl’s team modelled the same technique used by dung beetles to develop an AI sensor for robot navigation in low light.

The Nature paper 'Bogong moths use a stellar compass for long-distance navigation at night' is authored by researchers from Europe, the UK, China, Australia, Canada and Australia. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09135-3

A video produced by the Australian Academy of Science, explaining Prof Warrant’s research, is available at: www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqiG_xBUFE0 Prof Warrant was elected a Corresponding Member of the Academy in 2024.

 

AI paves the way towards green cement




Paul Scherrer Institute
cement 

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When cement is mixed with water, sand and gravel, it becomes concrete – the most widely used building material in the world. However, the production of cement releases large amounts of carbon dioxide. Researchers at PSI are using artificial intelligence and computational modelling to develop alternative formulations that should be more climate-friendly.

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Credit: © Paul Scherrer Institute PSI/Markus Fischer






The cement industry produces around eight percent of global CO₂ emissions – more than the entire aviation sector worldwide. Researchers at the Paul Scherrer Institute PSI have developed an AI-based model that helps to accelerate the discovery of new cement formulations that could yield the same material quality with a better carbon footprint.

The rotary kilns in cement plants are heated to a scorching 1,400 degrees Celsius to burn ground limestone down to clinker, the raw material for ready-to-use cement. Unsurprisingly, such temperatures typically can't be achieved with electricity alone. They are the result of energy-intensive combustion processes that emit large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO₂). What may be surprising, however, is that the combustion process accounts for less than half of these emissions, far less. The majority is contained in the raw materials needed to produce clinker and cement: CO₂ that is chemically bound in the limestone is released during its transformation in the high-temperature kilns. 

One promising strategy for reducing emissions is to modify the cement recipe itself – replacing some of the clinker with alternative cementitious materials. That is exactly what an interdisciplinary team in the Laboratory for Waste Management in PSI’s Center for Nuclear Engineering and Sciences has been investigating. Instead of relying solely on time-consuming experiments or complex simulations, the researchers developed a modelling approach based on machine learning.  “This allows us to simulate and optimise cement formulations so that they emit significantly less CO₂ while maintaining the same high level of mechanical performance,” explains mathematician Romana Boiger, first author of the study. “Instead of testing thousands of variations in the lab, we can use our model to generate practical recipe suggestions within seconds – it's like having a digital cookbook for climate-friendly cement.”

With their novel approach, the researchers were able to selectively filter out those cement formulations that could meet the desired criteria. “The range of possibilities for the material composition – which ultimately determines the final properties – is extraordinarily vast,” says Nikolaos Prasianakis head of the Transport Mechanisms Research Group at PSI, who was the initiator and co-author of the study. “Our method allows us to significantly accelerate the development cycle by selecting promising candidates for further experimental investigation.” The results of the study were published in the journal Materials and Structures.

The right recipe

Already today, industrial by-products such as slag from iron production and fly ash from coal-fired power plants are already being used to partially replace clinker in cement formulations and thus reduce CO₂ emissions. However, the global demand for cement is so enormous that these materials alone cannot meet the need. “What we need is the right combination of materials that are available in large quantities and from which high-quality, reliable cement can be produced,” says John Provis, head of the Cement Systems Research Group at PSI and co-author of the study.

Finding such combinations, however, is challenging: “Cement is basically a mineral binding agent – in concrete, we use cement, water, and gravel to artificially create minerals that hold the entire material together,» Provis explains. “You could say we're doing geology in fast motion.” This geology – or rather, the set of physical processes behind it – is enormously complex, and modelling it on a computer is correspondingly computationally intensive and expensive. That is why the research team is relying on artificial intelligence.

AI as computational accelerator

Artificial neural networks are computer models that are trained, using existing data, to speed up complex calculations. During training, the network is fed a known data set and learns from it by adjusting the relative strength or “weighting” of its internal connections so that it can quickly and reliably predict similar relationships. This weighting serves as a kind of shortcut – a faster alternative to otherwise computationally intensive physical modelling.

The researchers at PSI also made use of such a neural network. They themselves generated the data required for training: “With the help of the open-source thermodynamic modelling software GEMS, developed at PSI, we calculated – for various cement formulations – which minerals form during hardening and which geochemical processes take place,” explains Nikolaos Prasianakis. By combining these results with experimental data and mechanical models, the researchers were able to derive a reliable indicator for mechanical properties – and thus for the material quality of the cement. For each component used, they also applied a corresponding CO₂ factor, a specific emission value that made it possible to determine the total CO₂ emissions. “That was a very complex and computationally intensive modelling exercise,” the scientist says.

But it was worth the effort – with the data generated in this way, the AI model was able to learn. “Instead of seconds or minutes, the trained neural network can now calculate mechanical properties for an arbitrary cement recipe in milliseconds – that is, around a thousand times faster than with traditional modelling,” Boiger explains.

From output to input

How can this AI now be used to find optimal cement formulations – with the lowest possible CO₂ emissions and high material quality? One possibility would be to try out various formulations, use the AI model to calculate their properties, and then select the best variants. A more efficient approach, however, is to reverse the process. Instead of trying out all options, ask the question the other way around: Which cement composition meets the desired specifications regarding CO₂ balance and material quality?

Both the mechanical properties and the CO₂ emissions depend directly on the recipe. “Viewed mathematically, both variables are functions of the composition – if this changes, the respective properties also change,” the mathematician explains. To determine an optimal recipe, the researchers formulate the problem as a mathematical optimisation task: They are looking for a composition that simultaneously maximises mechanical properties and minimises CO₂ emissions.  “Basically, we are looking for a maximum and a minimum – from this we can directly deduce the desired formulation,” the mathematician says.

To find the solution, the team integrated in the workflow an additional AI technology, the so-called genetic algorithms – computer-assisted methods inspired by natural selection. This enabled them to selectively identify formulations that ideally combine the two target variables.

The advantage of this “reverse approach”: You no longer have to blindly test countless recipes and then evaluate their resulting properties; instead you can specifically search for those that meet specific desired criteria – in this case, maximum mechanical properties with minimum CO₂ emissions.

Interdisciplinary approach with great potential

Among the cement formulations identified by the researchers, there are already some promising candidates. “Some of these formulations have real potential,” says John Provis, “not only in terms of CO₂ reduction and quality, but also in terms of practical feasibility in production.” To complete the development cycle, however, the recipes must first be tested in the laboratory.  “We're not going to build a tower with them right away without testing them first,” Nikolaos Prasianakis says with a smile.

The study primarily serves as a proof of concept – that is, as evidence that promising formulations can be identified purely by mathematical calculation. “We can extend our AI modelling tool as required and integrate additional aspects, such as the production or availability of raw materials, or where the building material is to be used – for example, in a marine environment, where cement and concrete behave differently, or even in the desert,” says Romana BoigerNikolaos Prasianakis is already looking ahead: “This is just the beginning. The time savings offered by such a general workflow are enormous – making it a very promising approach for all sorts of material and system designs.”

Without the interdisciplinary background of the researchers, the project would never have come to fruition: “We needed cement chemists, thermodynamics experts, AI specialists – and a team that could bring all of this together,” Prasianakis says. “Added to this was the important exchange with other research institutions such as EMPA within the framework of the SCENE project.” SCENE (the Swiss Centre of Excellence on Net Zero Emissions) is an interdisciplinary research programme that aims to develop scientifically sound solutions for drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions in industry and the energy supply. The study was carried out as part of this project.

Text: Paul Scherrer Institute PSI/Benjamin A. Senn

 

About PSI

The Paul Scherrer Institute PSI develops, builds and operates large, complex research facilities and makes them available to the national and international research community. The institute's own key research priorities are in the fields of future technologies, energy and climate, health innovation and fundamentals of nature. PSI is committed to the training of future generations. Therefore about one quarter of our staff are post-docs, post-graduates or apprentices. Altogether PSI employs 2300 people, thus being the largest research institute in Switzerland. The annual budget amounts to approximately CHF 460 million. PSI is part of the ETH Domain, with the other members being the two Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology, ETH Zurich and EPFL Lausanne, as well as Eawag (Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology), Empa (Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology) and WSL (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research).

A cement chemist, a mathematician and an engineer – and more: The team at PSI brings together expertise from a range of disciplines. It is only thanks to this interdisciplinary approach that the researchers were able to develop their AI-supported optimisation approach. Pictured (from left to right): John Provis, Romana Boiger, and Nikolaos Prasianakis.

Credit

© Paul Scherrer Institute PSI/Markus Fischer