Climate change expands wildfire danger worldwide: New study warns of unprecedented risks in the coming decades

Climate change will dramatically increase wildfire danger globally, with almost all fire-prone regions expected to experience heightened risk by the end of this century

CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change

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Key findings:

• By 2040, at least 55% of the world's fire-prone regions will experience significant increases in fire danger, regardless of emission scenario
• By 2100, between 68% and 91% of fire-prone areas could face heightened wildfire risk, depending on future emissions
• Even areas that in the past had a relatively low risk of wildfire are subject to this increase.
• Southern Africa, the Mediterranean region, northern Asia, northeastern South America, and parts of North America expected to see most pronounced increases
• The novel approach to studying fire risk reduces uncertainties, leading to potential benefits in targeted prevention strategies and long-term fire management.

 

A new study, led by CMCC and Coventry University, reveals that climate change will dramatically expand wildfire danger across the globe, with up to 91% of fire-prone regions experiencing heightened risk by the end of this century.

However, these changes are not just limited to areas that are traditionally fire-prone but could also affect ones that have rarely experienced wildfire risk in the past.

“Wildfire danger is expanding and intensifying due to climate change,” says CMCC researcher and co-author of the study Maria Vincenza Chiriacò. “The key takeaway from this study is that climate-driven fire danger is not a distant or localized issue, but a growing global challenge that demands proactive action.”

Some of the most pronounced increases in fire danger are expected in regions such as southern Africa, the Mediterranean region, northern Asia, northeastern South America, and parts of North America.

“The findings highlight how climate-driven fire danger will evolve globally, with important implications for livelihoods and ecosystem resilience,” says co-author of the study and climate scientist at Coventry University, Jonathan Eden. “It’s crucial that science continues to inform policy and planning to protect forest ecosystems and communities”

Under the highest emission scenario, the projected fire danger in large parts of North America, Eurasia, South America and southern Africa could represent conditions that had less than a 1% chance of occurring during the recent historical period.

“This research is a step forward in providing more reliable projections of future fire danger under climate change, so we can better inform policy and planning, especially in regions where it is expected to rise,” says lead author of the study Carolina Gallo.
“We offer a more nuanced view of future fire risk, which is critical for long-term strategies in climate adaptation and land management,” concludes Chiriacò.

CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change is a leading research institution dedicated to climate science, providing cutting-edge insights and innovative solutions for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. CMCC plays a pivotal role in global climate research, working closely with international partners to advance climate modeling, forecasting, and policy recommendations. www.cmcc.it

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Journal

Journal of Climate

DOI

10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0540.1 

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Future Impacts of Climate Change on Global Fire Weather: Insight from Weighted CMIP6 Multimodel Ensembles

 

Doctor exposes critical treatment gap leaving eating disorder patients “stuck in the cracks” of healthcare system

Taylor & Francis Group

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As eating disorder rates continue to climb following the COVID-19 pandemic, one doctor has revealed life-threating physical dangers which are often overlooked and treatment gaps leaving patients without adequate care.

Dr. Jennifer L. Gaudiani, a physician who specialises in eating disorders, has revealed how patients are falling through critical cracks – some are deemed ‘not sick enough’ by some practitioners while being considered ‘too medically compromised’ by others.

These arguments are outlined in a new edition of Sick Enough, which draws upon peer-reviewed literature to understand the risks of ignoring eating disorders and recognise when to seek help.

The “sick enough” dilemma

The urgency for improved eating disorder care has never been greater; large meta-analyses cited in the book show that eating disorder hospital admissions during the pandemic rose almost 50 per cent, while outpatient paediatrician visits for mental health concerns doubled.

Girls and teens showed especially high use of emergency department, inpatient, and outpatient services for eating disorders.

“The need for effective and responsive medical and psychological treatment is high,” writes Dr. Gaudiani, “Patients with EDs seem to be perceived as too mentally ill for medical professionals and too medically compromised for mental health professionals. They fall through the cracks.”

Dr. Gaudiani suggests one of the most dangerous aspects of eating disorders is patients’ persistent belief that they don’t warrant treatment. She explains how patients rationalize their condition, and minimalize their health concerns.

She says: “This is an extremely important point because someone who is ‘fine’ can comfortably reject what all these people are telling them about how concerned they are.

“Right at this moment, you are sick enough. Anyone with an ED is sick enough to seek help, regardless of weight, lab results, or other markers patients use to minimize their illness.”

Warning signs to be aware of

Physical warning signs, to help people identify eating disorders in themselves or others, include feeling weak, lightheaded, and sweaty when standing, muscle pain and soreness, throat and mouth pain from purging, swollen cheeks, fuzzy and unfocused thinking, constipation and digestive issues, and dangerous electrolyte imbalances that can cause the heart to stop at any moment.

Behavioral and emotional indicators include compulsive weighing multiple times daily, extreme mood swings based on scale numbers, social withdrawal from friends, family, and previously important activities, maintaining academic or work performance while health deteriorates, and rationalizing restrictive behaviors as ‘being healthy’.

In fact, far from being ‘healthy’, Dr. Gaudiani explains that some eating disorders have life-threatening consequences, which are often overlooked.

This includes purging, which carries particular risk. She explains: “When purging is involved, a person can be fine in the morning and dead by sundown. Purging can abruptly change electrolyte levels, potassium in particular, as well as hydration status; the body simply cannot adapt quickly enough. Death can occur swiftly and without warning.”

While many patients believe they are only sick enough to merit when their electrolytes are abnormal, Dr. Gaudiani emphasizes that there is no safe amount of purging.

She warns: “There is no one measure, not a lab value nor a weight, that correctly and uniquely labels the severity of an ED or its worthiness for treatment.”

Improving eating disorder care

Dr. Gaudiani advocates for significant changes to ED care. In her research, she found medical professionals receive almost no training in eating disorders during medical school and residency, contributing to missed diagnoses and inadequate care.

She says: “Mental illnesses are typically treated by one set of professionals, physical illnesses by another set, and the system keeps the two disciplines separate even though they are inextricably connected.”

This can also be extended to how family speak to one another about bodies and weight, and reframing how we speak about our health can be key in improving stigma around body health that otherwise could prove harmful. This includes pivoting the focus away from exercise to achieve a healthy body to functional questions, being gentle and compassionate about your own body, and being open to apologise if you make a mistake.

Despite the serious medical complications detailed in the book, Dr. Gaudiani maintains an optimistic outlook about recovery possibilities.

“Full recovery from an ED is absolutely possible,” she explains. “Everyone has the potential for full recovery, and most medical problems will fully resolve with recovery.”

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DOI

10.4324/9781003624523 

 

A ubiquitous architectural pattern in nature

PNAS Nexus

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image: 

Cone from a tree in the genus Agathis, showing a repeating tile-like pattern.

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Credit: Guido Bohne/Pixeltoo

A database, collecting and classifying tile-like patterns in biology, aims to be a resource and research catalyst. The human eye is drawn to the rhythmic beauty of tiled patterns, which occur abundantly in nature. Jana Ciecierska-Holmes, John Nyakatura and Mason Dean led a project with colleagues, offering a classification of biological tilings—repeated patterns of geometric discrete elements found in nature. Tilings are found across the tree of life, in a wide variety of taxa and at many spatial scales from nanometers to centimeters. The authors distinguish true tiles from well-studied “cellular foams,” which are patterned voids, such as honeycombs. Tile patterns can allow a structure to be flexible and modular. Tilings are found in eyes, armor, egg cases, wings, and even in virus capsid coats, serving a huge range of functions, from optics to water transport to protection. The annotated collection of 100 biological tilings can help researchers answer questions such as: Why do some tile shapes or layouts dominate over others in certain taxonomic groups? Why are bi-directional and regular tilings more favored than unidirectional and irregular tilings? How could biological tilings lead to solutions for manufacturing design challenges? The authors propose that biological tilings could prove to be an inspiration for the fashion and sports industries, as they can be used to create coverings that take into account body topology. The authors have created a public website to share their dataset and collect more examples, in what the authors hope will be a launchpad for future research and collaborative, cross-disciplinary, bio-inspired projects.

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Journal

PNAS Nexus

Article Title

Tiled material systems: Exploring biodiversity and multifunctionality of a universal and structural motif

Article Publication Date

11-Nov-2025

 

Two major irrigation statistics may be wrong

PNAS Nexus

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image: 

Belief in the claim that irrigation agriculture produces 40% of all crops, as a function of time in polar coordinates. The size of the nodes (documents) correspond to their degree; that is, the number of incoming edges (citations). Blue nodes (“citation backup”) denote documents that make the claim and support the claim with a citation. Green nodes (“modeling”) represent documents that produce original data supporting the claim through a modeling or statistical exercise. Orange nodes (“no citation”) are documents that make the claim but do not produce original data nor cite any study to support the claim. Red nodes (“no claim”) are documents that are cited to support the claim but do not actually make the claim. Grey nodes (“NA”) represent documents that are cited as making the claim but that we have been unable to access.

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Credit: Arnald Puy et al.

The idea that irrigated agriculture underpins global food and water security—producing 40% of crops and using 70% of freshwater—has become widespread in science and policy. However, these statistics are not empirically supported, according to a new analysis. Arnald Puy and colleagues traced these figures through citations in 3,693 scientific documents published from 1966 to 2024. The authors found that 60–80% of citation paths led to sources without supporting data or that did not contain the claimed numbers. Only approximately 1.5% of cited documents provided original data. When the authors analyzed available data on irrigation's actual impact, the results showed much wider uncertainty ranges: irrigated agriculture produces 18–50% of the world’s grain and is responsible for 45–90% of freshwater withdrawals. The analysis revealed that the 40% and 70% figures spread through “amplification," in which sources without data are used, and “transmutation," in which uncertain claims are presented as definitive facts after repeated citation. The most cited basis for the statistics, FAO's Aquastat database, contains limited country coverage with mostly imputed rather than measured values. According to the authors, the wobbly nature of such oft-repeated statistics highlights the need to critically evaluate foundational claims in sustainability science. Regardless of irrigation's global impact, there are no shortage of specific, local irrigation problems to solve, and they can often be approached most fruitfully with place-based solutions. 
 

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Journal

PNAS Nexus

Article Title

Widely cited global irrigation statistics lack empirical support

Article Publication Date

11-Nov-2025

Belief in the claim that irrigation agriculture is responsible for 70% of all freshwater withdrawals, as a function of time in polar coordinates. The size of the nodes (documents) correspond to their degree; that is, the number of incoming edges (citations). Blue nodes (“citation backup”) denote documents that make the claim and support the claim with a citation. Green nodes (“modeling”) represent documents that produce original data supporting the claim through a modeling or statistical exercise. Orange nodes (“no citation”) are documents that make the claim but do not produce original data nor cite any study to support the claim. Red nodes (“no claim”) are documents that are cited to support the claim but do not actually make the claim. Grey nodes (“NA”) represent documents that are cited as making the claim but that we have been unable to access.

Credit

Arnald Puy et al.