Friday, November 14, 2025

SPACE\COSMOS

Chang'e-6 samples reveal first evidence of impact-formed hematite and maghemite on the Moon




Chinese Academy of Sciences Headquarters

Graphical depiction of the formation scenario of ferric oxides in Chang'e-6 lunar sample 

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Graphical depiction of the formation scenario of ferric oxides in Chang'e-6 lunar sample.

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Credit: Image by IGCAS





A joint research team from the Institute of Geochemistry of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IGCAS) and Shandong University has for the first time identified crystalline hematite (α-Fe2O3) and maghemite (γ-Fe2O3) formed by a major impact event in lunar soil samples retrieved by China's Chang'e-6 mission from the South Pole–Aitken (SPA) Basin. This finding, published in Science Advances on November 14, provides direct sample-based evidence of highly oxidized materials on the lunar surface.

Redox reactions are a fundamental component of planetary formation and evolution. Nevertheless, scientific studies have shown that neither the oxygen fugacity of the lunar interior nor the lunar surface environment favors oxidation. Consistent with this, multivalent iron on the Moon primarily exists in its ferrous (Fe2+) and metallic (Fe0) states, suggesting an overall reduced state. However, with further lunar exploration, recent orbital remote sensing studies using visible-near-infrared spectroscopy have suggested the widespread presence of hematite in the Moon's high-latitude regions.

Furthermore, earlier research on Chang'e-5 samples first revealed impact-generated sub-micron magnetite (Fe3O4) and evidence of Fe3+ in impact glasses. These results indicate that localized oxidizing environments on the Moon existed during lunar surface modification processes driven by external impacts. Despite this research progress, though, conclusive mineralogical evidence for strongly oxidizing minerals like hematite on the Moon had remained elusive. Additionally, the extent of oxidation processes and the prevalence of characteristic oxidized minerals on the lunar surface have long been topics of intense debate.

The SPA Basin, one of the largest and oldest impact basins in the Solar System, with extremely complex impact scales and frequencies, offers an ideal natural laboratory for studying oxidation reactions on the lunar surface. The successful return of soil samples from the SPA Basin by the 2024 Chang'e-6 mission offered an opportunity to search for highly oxidized substances formed during major impact events. The research team identified micron-sized hematite grains in the Chang'e-6 lunar soil for the first time. Through a combination of micro-area electron microscopy, electron energy loss spectroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy, they confirmed the crystal structure and unique occurrence characteristics of these hematite particles, verifying that the minerals are primary lunar components rather than terrestrial contaminants.

The study proposes that hematite formation is closely linked to major impact events in lunar history. The extreme temperatures generated by large impacts would have vaporized surface materials, creating a transient high-oxygen-fugacity vapor-phase environment. At the same time, this process would have caused desulfurization of troilite; the released iron ions were then oxidized in the high-fugacity environment and underwent vapor-phase deposition, forming micron-sized crystalline hematite. This hematite coexists with  magnetic magnetite and maghemite.

Notably, the origin of widespread magnetic anomalies on the lunar surface, including those in the northwestern SPA Basin, remains poorly explained. Given the close correlation between oxidation processes and the formation of magnetic carrier minerals, this study provides key sample-based evidence to clarify the carriers and evolutionary history of these lunar magnetic anomalies.

This research challenges the long-held belief that the lunar surface is entirely reduced. It also offers crucial clues for deciphering the evolution of lunar magnetic anomalies and the mechanisms underlying large impact events, thereby advancing our understanding of lunar evolution.


Race for first private space station heats up as NASA set to retire ISS


By AFP
November 13, 2025


Vast can put an astronaut into space for less than $100 million, says company advisor former NASA astronaut Andrew Feustel - Copyright AFP PATRICIA DE MELO MOREIRA


Daxia ROJAS

With NASA’s International Space Station set to come out of service in 2030, American aerospace firm Vast has stepped into a frenzied race for the world’s first commercial space station.

Haven-1 — a mini station scheduled for launch in May 2026 — has been designed for comfort, according to Andrew Feustel, a former NASA astronaut now an advisor at Vast.

“It has a three-year lifespan, and over that period of time, we plan to visit the spacecraft with multiple crews of four, four at a time,” he told AFP on the sidelines of the Web Summit in Lisbon.

The California-based firm, founded in 2021 by billionaire Jed McCaleb, aspires to replace the International Space Station with Haven-2, a larger version of the first model.

But Vast faces fierce competition from other contenders, including Axiom Space, Voyager Space in partnership with Airbus, and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin.

Hopes rest on securing funding from a NASA budget of up to $1.5 billion for the development of commercial space stations, which is set to be awarded in April 2026.



– ‘Aggressive timelines’ –



“Space agencies no longer want to manage the infrastructure” of the ISS, said Ugo Bonnet, director of the Spaceflight Institute, which offers training for commercial human missions.

Locked in competition with China, NASA wants to focus more on crewed mission projects to the Moon by the end of the decade and eventually build a base on the lunar surface.

In replacing the ISS, NASA plans to purchase services rather than manage programmes itself — a real boon for private companies in the space market.

“There are a lot of players that are coming with very aggressive timelines, and we cannot do things in the same way we did in the past”, said Roberto Angelini, director of the Exploration and Science Domain of Thales Alenia Space.

The French-Italian joint venture is set to deliver the first two pressurised modules for Axiom’s planned commercial space station, which could be operational as early as 2028.

It has also manufactured half the pressurised modules for the ISS. The company’s main challenge, however, is to “remain competitive in terms of prices”, according to Angelini.



– Changing business models –



NASA spends up to $4 billion a year on the ISS, roughly a third of the US agency’s annual human space flight budget.

SpaceX’s reusable launch vehicles has revolutionised the sector, lowering transportation costs and paving the way for these private projects.

Vast plans to send Haven-1 into space on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, while Axiom’s private mission will see astronauts aboard one of their Crew Dragon capsules.

“Just 15 to 20 years ago, sending a kilogram into space cost $60,000,” Bonnet told AFP. “When Starship, SpaceX’s launcher becomes operational in 2030, the cost will be less than $200 per kilogram,” he added.

But operating a commercial space station will still cost a hefty sum.

“I’m not sure about their long-term profitability,” said Beatrice Hainaut, a space policy researcher at the Institute for Strategic Research at the Military School.

Companies are counting on increased demand from governments and the private sector to generate revenue.

Vast predicts that 85 percent of its crewed mission revenues will come from state agencies, and 15 percent from private clients.

Feustel said the company wanted to be a “service provider to not only the US government”, but all countries seeking to send their astronauts into space for training and research.

“For less than $100 million, you can put an astronaut in space on a VAST spacecraft.”

Chinese astronauts return to Earth after delay blamed on space debris damage

Journalists film Chinese astronauts ahead of the Shenzhou 20 mission in northwest China on April 23, 2025.
Copyright Andy Wong /AP Photo

By AP with Euronews
Published on 

The astronauts' return was delayed for nine days.

Three Chinese astronauts returned from their nation's space station Friday after more than a week's delay because the return capsule they had planned to use was damaged, likely from being hit by space debris.

The team left their Shenzhou-20 spacecraft in orbit and came back using the recently arrived Shenzhou-21, which had ferried a three-person replacement crew to the station, China’s Manned Space Agency said.

The original return plan was scrapped because a window in the Shenzhou-20 capsule had tiny cracks, most likely caused by impact from space debris, the space agency said Friday.

They had been on a six-month rotation and were originally scheduled to return Nov. 5, four days after the new crew arrived. Their return was delayed for nine days, making their 204-day stay in space the longest for any astronaut at China’s space station.

It wasn’t clear if the change in spacecraft would affect the timing of future missions to the Tiangong space station, where new crews typically swap in every six months. The space agency said that Shenzhou-22 would be launched but did not specify when.

Chen Dong, the mission commander, said he felt at ease after their return, calling his latest space voyage both a training opportunity and a real test.

“The path of human space exploration is not smooth,” he said after emerging from the capsule.

“It’s filled with difficulties and challenges. But that is exactly why we choose to walk this path”.

The return capsule deployed a red and white striped parachute as it came down in the late afternoon to a remote site in northern China's Gobi Desert, about five and a half hours after leaving the space station. The impact sent up a large cloud of dust in the barren landscape.

The astronauts were carried out one by one about 30 minutes later and put into waiting chairs that were then loaded into individual orange trucks that took them away across the flat and scrubby desert.

Millions of pieces of space debris are circling the Earth at speeds faster than a bullet flies. The mostly tiny fragments can come from launches and collisions and pose a risk to satellites, space stations and the astronauts who operate outside them.

The temporarily stranded astronauts, who had traveled to the space station in April, conducted experiments with the new crew and were "in good condition, working and living normally,” the space agency said earlier this week.

Returning with the astronauts were four mice that also had a longer than planned stay after arriving on Shenzhou-21 about two weeks ago.

The mice were brought to study how weightlessness and confinement would affect them. The study will help in the development of technologies to breed and monitor small mammals in space, an engineer from the Chinese Academy of Sciences said.

China's space programme is a source of national pride. State broadcaster CCTV showed the astronauts' return live. A Chinese national flag flapped in a stiff wind after being planted in the ground near where the capsule landed.

Besides building its own space station, China has explored Mars with a robotic rover and aims to land a person on the moon by 2030.

China developed the Tiangong space station after the country was excluded from the International Space Station over US national security concerns. China’s space programme is controlled by its military.

The Tiangong, which means “Heavenly Palace,” hosted its first crew in 2021. It is smaller than the International Space Station, which has been operating for 25 years.

The International Space Station has also had delayed returns, notably that of two NASA astronautswhose one-week test flight of a new Boeing crew capsule in 2024 turned into nine months after problems cropped up with the capsule.



DID NOT BLOW UP

Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin launches NASA


Mars spacecraft on first New Glenn flight


Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin launched its New Glenn rocket on Thursday carrying NASA’s twin Mars-bound spacecraft, and in a major milestone successfully landed its booster for reuse. The launch, delayed for days by weather, marked only the second New Glenn flight and the first booster recovery by a company other than SpaceX.


Issued on: 14/11/2025 
By: FRANCE 24


Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket lifts off for its second mission, the NG-2, from Space Launch Complex 36 at the Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Florida © Chandan Khanna, AFP
01:19



Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin successfully launched its New Glenn rocket on Thursday with NASA twin spacecraft destined for Mars aboard, and in a breakthrough stuck the landing of its booster.

The launch was stalled for days over weather both on Earth and in space, but it was worth the wait: in the rocket's second-ever flight, Blue Origin managed to recover the booster for reuse.

Ecstatic cheers rang out at the launch site in Florida's Cape Canaveral as the booster gracefully nailed its landing on a floating platform. Prior to Thursday, only Elon Musk's SpaceX had managed to accomplish such a maneuver with an orbital-class rocket.

Blue Origin's accomplishment comes amid intensified rivalry between the two billionaire-owned private space companies, as the US space agency NASA recently opened up bids for its planned Moon mission.

"Damn that was exciting!" said Jared Isaacman – a Musk ally who President Donald Trump recently nominated again to head NASA – on X, congratulating Blue Origin.

A handful of figures at SpaceX also had praise for their rivals, with their VP of Launch, Kiko Dontchev, saying the feat "moves the country and industry forward".

The launch was repeatedly delayed: on Sunday over weather on Earth, and on Wednesday over weather in space.

The second postponement was over "highly elevated solar activity" that NASA was worried could impact or damage its spacecraft.

And multiple glitches meant delays yet again on Thursday – hold-ups Blue Origin did not explain. But at 3:55 pm (2055 GMT), New Glenn finally blasted off.

The 322-foot (98-metre) rocket now has the task of sending NASA's ESCAPADE twin spacecraft to Mars, in a bid to study the Red Planet's climate history with the eventual hope of human exploration.

Applause resounded once more as the spacecraft successfully deployed.

Joseph Westlake, a NASA heliophysicist, explained during Thursday's webcast how the twin spacecraft named "Blue" and "Gold" will first finding a "benign, safe parking orbit" to make "measurements about the space weather here on Earth".

Then, once the planets have reached the ideal alignment in the fall of 2026, the spacecraft will get a boost from Earth's gravity and begin the journey to Mars, where they will arrive in 2027.

This type of launch could allow for more frequent missions in the future, because they could proceed outside the window of direct alignment of Earth and Mars that happens approximately once every two years.


© France 24
01:35



'Launch, land, repeat'


New Glenn's inaugural flight in January also was marked a success, as its payload achieved orbit and successfully performed tests.

But its first-stage booster, which was meant to be reusable, was lost during descent.

Thursday's achievement signals that Blue Origin is on its way to reducing costs by reusing boosters rather than allowing them to plummet into the ocean.

"Launch, land, repeat – it starts today," said Eddie Seyffert, among Blue Origin's webcast commentators.

And it comes as US President Donald Trump's second term in the White House has seen the administration pile pressure on NASA to accelerate its progress to send a crewed mission to the Moon amid a race with China.

George Nield – a senior aerospace executive whose work promotes the commercial space industry, and who has flown with Blue Origin in the past – told AFP this launch would be an "indicator" of the company's progress.

It could show "whether they can play increased roles in near-term lunar exploration", he said.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)


New evidence from GW230814 confirms the black-hole area law



China’s Purple Mountain Observatory independently verifies Stephen Hawking’s prediction that a black hole’s horizon area cannot shrink when two black holes merge



Science China Press

Probability density distributions of the measured/expected area change. 

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Probability density distributions of the ratio between the measured and expected changes in the horizon area of the merged black hole. The results compare two post‑merger modelling approaches: the “pIMR” model, which uses the post‑merger portion of an inspiral‑merger‑ringdown waveform, and the “QNM” model, which represents the ringdown as a superposition of quasinormal modes of a perturbed Kerr black hole. The analysis also examines different ringdown start times t>, set at 4 or 6 times tMf (0.309 ms) after the reference strain peak. The grey‑shaded region indicates cases where the final horizon area is smaller than the sum of the initial two. The vertical dashed line at 1 corresponds to the prediction of general relativity.

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Credit: ©Science China Press




A research team at the Purple Mountain Observatory (PMO) announces a significant observational test of the black-hole “area law” using the gravitational-wave event GW230814. In 1971, physicist Stephen Hawking proposed that for classical black holes the total area of their event horizons cannot decrease over time. The merger of two black holes offers one of the few accessible ways to test this prediction — but accurately measuring the masses and spins (and hence the horizon areas) of the progenitor and resultant black holes has proved extremely challenging.

The PMO team turned to the high signal-to-noise ratio event GW230814, drawn from the fourth gravitational-wave transient catalog. Black-hole coalescence can be broadly divided into three phases: inspiral (two black holes spiraling inward), merger (the highly nonlinear coalescence), and ringdown (the newly formed black hole relaxing). The merger phase is the most dynamic and potentially most susceptible to deviations from general relativity; by contrast, the inspiral and ringdown phases lie in regimes where general relativity is typically a reliable approximation.

Recognising this, the authors performed independent parameter inference on the inspiral phase and the ringdown phase of GW230814, deriving constraints on the masses and spins of the two original black holes and the final merged black hole — and from those, the horizon areas. Across their analysis they carefully accounted for key uncertainties including sky-location error, waveform-template systematic effects, choice of ringdown modelling, and the time boundaries for inspiral end and ringdown start.

The analysis shows that, after considering these uncertainties, the posterior probability that the final black hole’s horizon area exceeds the sum of the progenitors’ horizon areas is extremely high. The one-sided statistical significance can reach about 4.1σ. This finding strongly supports the black-hole area law, and further corroborates the self-consistency and validity of general relativity in the strong-field, dynamical regime of black-hole mergers.

This independent verification of Hawking’s area law not only reinforces a foundational prediction of black-hole physics, but also strengthens confidence in our understanding of gravitational dynamics under the most extreme conditions. Moreover, the study provides a solid basis for future investigations into black-hole thermodynamics, quantum-gravity corrections and even more stringent tests of gravitational theory in the most extreme astrophysical environments.




 

Lead-free alternative discovered for essential electronics component



University of Arkansas
University of Arkansas physicists 

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Distinguished Professor Laurent Bellaiche and research consultant Kinnary Patel of the Department of Physics.

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Credit: Russell Cothren






Ferroelectric materials are used in infrared cameras, medical ultrasounds, computer memory and actuators that turn electric properties into mechanical properties and vice-versa. Most of these essential materials, however, contain lead and can therefore be toxic. 

“For the last 10 years, there has been a huge initiative all over the world to find ferroelectric materials that do not contain lead,” said Laurent Bellaiche, Distinguished Professor of physics at the University of Arkansas. 

The atoms in a ferroelectric material can have more than one crystalline structure. Where two crystalline structures meet is a called a phase boundary, and the properties that make ferroelectric materials useful are strongest at these boundaries. 

Using chemical processes, scientists have manipulated the phase boundaries of lead-based ferroelectric materials to create higher performance and smaller devices. Chemically tuning the phase boundaries of lead-free ferroelectric material, however, has been challenging. 

New research from a team that includes Bellaiche and fellow U of A physicists Kinnary Patel and Sergey Prosandeev found a way to enhance lead-free ferroelectrics using strain, or mechanical force, rather than a chemical process. The discovery could produce lead-free ferroelectric components, opening new possibilities for devices and sensors that could be implanted in humans. 

“This is a major finding,” Bellaiche said. 

The results were published in the journal Nature Communications. Ruijuan Xu of North Carolina State University was the lead investigator. 

WHAT ARE FERROELECTRICS 

Ferroelectric materials, first discovered in 1920, have a natural electrical polarization that can be reversed by an electric field. That polarization remains reversed even once the electric field has been removed. 

The materials are dielectric, meaning they can be polarized by the application of an electric field. That makes them highly effective in capacitors. 

Ferroelectrics are also piezoelectric, which means they can generate electric properties in response to mechanical energy, and vice versa. This quality can be used in sonars, fire sensors, tiny speakers in a cell phone or actuators that precisely form letters in an inkjet printer. 

All these properties can be enhanced by manipulating the phase boundary of ferroelectric materials. 

“In a lead-based ferroelectric, such as lead zirconate titanate, one can chemically tune the compositions to land right at the phase,” Patel said. 

Lead-free ferroelectrics, however, contain highly volatile alkaline metals, which can become a gas and evaporate when chemically tuned. 

A NEW APPROACH 

The researchers instead created a thin film of the lead-free ferroelectric material sodium niobate (NaNbO3). The material is known to have a complex crystalline ground state structure at room temperature. It is also flexible. Scientists have long-known that changing the temperature of sodium niobate can produce multiple phases, or different arrangement of atoms. 

Instead of a chemical process or manipulating the temperature, the researchers changed the structure of the atoms in sodium niobate by strain. 

They grew a thin film of sodium niobate on a substrate. The structure of the atoms in the sodium niobate contract and expand as they try to match the structure of the atoms in the substrate. The process creates strain on the sodium niobate. 

“What is quite remarkable with sodium niobate is if you change the length a little bit, the phases are changing a lot,” Bellaiche said.  

To the researchers’ surprise, the strain caused the sodium niobate to have three different phases at once, which optimizes the useful ferroelectric properties of the material by creating more boundaries. 

“What I was expecting, to be honest, is if we change the strain, it will go from one phase to another phase. But not three at the same time,” Bellaiche said. “This was an important discovery.” 

The experiments were conducted at room temperature. The next step will be seeing if sodium niobate responds to strain in the same way at extreme temperatures ranging from minus 270 C to 1000 C above. 

The other authors on the paper, “Strain-induced lead-free morphotropic phase boundary,” include researchers from North Carolina State University, Cornell University, Drexel University, Stanford University, Pennsylvania State University, Argonne National Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

 

Skin cancer cluster found in 15 Pennsylvania counties with or near farmland





Penn State
Graphic of Pennsylvania cancer cluster 

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The researchers found that for every 10% increase in the amount of cultivated land, melanoma incidence rose by 14% throughout that region. A similar trend appeared with herbicide-treated acreage: a 9% increase corresponded to a 13% jump in melanoma cases. 

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Credit: Courtesy Eugene Lengerich




UNIVERSTIY PARK, Pa. — Counties in Pennsylvania that contained or were near cultivated cropland had significantly higher melanoma rates compared to other regions, according to a new study led by scientists at Penn State.

Researchers at Penn State Cancer Institute analyzed five years of cancer registry data, 2017 through 2021, and found that adults over the age of 50 living in a 15-county stretch of South Central Pennsylvania were 57% more likely to develop melanoma, the deadliest form of skin cancer, than residents elsewhere in the state. They published their findings today (Nov. 14) in the journal JCO Clinical Cancer Informatics.

The cancer cluster includes both rural and metropolitan counties, meaning risks are not confined to remote areas or reserved for those most exposed to the outdoors, explained Charlene Lam, associate professor of dermatology at Penn State Health and co-author on the paper.

“Melanoma is often associated with beaches and sunbathing, but our findings suggest that agricultural environments may also play a role,” she said. “And this isn’t just about farmers. Entire communities living near agriculture, people who never set foot in a field, may still be at risk.”

The usual suspect — sunlight — was considered as a part of the study. But even after adjusting for ultraviolet radiation in Pennsylvania and socioeconomic factors, two patterns stood out: Counties with more cultivated cropland and those with higher herbicide use had significantly higher melanoma rates.

"Pesticides and herbicides are designed to alter biological systems,” said Eugene Lengerich, emeritus professor of public health sciences at Penn State and senior author on the paper. “Some of those same mechanisms, like increasing photosensitivity or causing oxidative stress, could theoretically contribute to melanoma development.”

The researchers found that for every 10% increase in the amount of cultivated land, melanoma incidence rose by 14% throughout that region. A similar trend appeared with herbicide-treated acreage: a 9% increase corresponded to a 13% jump in melanoma cases.

Lam stressed that exposure isn’t limited to the agricultural workers applying the chemicals, as the materials can drift through the air, settle in household dust and seep into water supplies.

“Our findings suggest that melanoma risk could extend beyond occupational settings to entire communities,” she said. “This is relevant for people living near farmland. You don’t have to be a farmer to face environmental exposure.”

In the paper, the researchers cited other studies that previously linked pesticide and herbicide use with melanoma risk due to the fact that the chemicals have been found to heighten sensitivity to sunlight, disrupt immune function and damage DNA in non-human animals and plants.

Benjamin Marks, first author on the paper who is pursuing a medical degree and a master of public health degree at the Penn State College of Medicine, pointed out that while cropland and increased herbicide use seem to go hand in hand with higher melanoma rates, that doesn’t prove that chemicals commonly used on crops like corn, soybeans and grains cause cancer, but rather the numbers show a link worth investigating.

He explained that studies like this are valuable for identifying patterns, but can’t necessarily pinpoint individual risk.

"Think of this as a signal, not a verdict,” Marks said. “The data suggest that areas with more cultivated land and herbicide use tend to have higher melanoma rates, but many other factors could be at play like genetics, behavior or access to health care. Understanding these patterns helps us protect not just farmers, but entire communities living near farmland.”

Lam said her hope is to better understand the relationship between agricultural practices and public health, as the study’s implications extend beyond Pennsylvania. Similar patterns have been reported in agricultural regions of Utah, Poland and Italy, the researchers noted in the paper.

She encouraged those concerned about their risk to perform regular skin checks, wear sun-protective clothing and sunscreen outdoors. As a next step, Lam is leading follow up research in the rural communities within the study area to learn more about practices adopted by farmers and understand where exposure risks could be coming from.

"Cancer prevention can’t happen in isolation," Lengerich said. "This study demonstrates the importance of a ‘One Health’ approach, an understanding that human health is deeply connected to our environment and agricultural systems. If herbicides and farming practices are contributing to melanoma risk, then solutions must involve not just doctors, but farmers, environmental scientists, policymakers and communities working together."

Other co-authors include Jiangang Liao, professor of public health sciences at Penn State College of Medicine; and Camille Moeckel, fourth-year medical student and research associate at Penn State College of Medicine.

The research was supported by the MPH Capstone Program and the Medical Student Research Project at the Penn State College of Medicine, as well as the University’s Algin B. Garrett Professorship.

The Netherlands

No return of the centre but consolidation of the far-right and weakening of the left

 in Dutch elections

Wednesday 12 November 2025, by SAP / Grenzeloos

Much of the commentary on the results of the Dutch elections of October 29 can be summarised as “the centre is back”. However, the fact that the centrist party D66 won significantly while Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV lost 11 seats is by no means a decisive change in the political pattern of the Netherlands. With 26 out of 150 seats, the PVV now has the same number as seats as D66. And for the Dutch left, there is even less reason to celebrate.


Far right stable and strong

Firstly, the parliamentary far-right has shown itself to be remarkably stable. Around a third of the seats in parliament remain in its hands. The loss of the PVV is offset by the gains of other far-right parties: JA21 and FvD. JA21 supports similar politics as the PVV but in a more technocratic, respectable guise while FvD is arguably to the right of the PVV and openly refers to neo-fascist and racist ideas. Yet another party, the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB in Dutch initials) entered parliament in 2021 as a populist, rightwing party and has since then shifted towards the far-right. All in all, the far-right enlarged its parliamentary presence. The most likely scenario is the formation of a new centre-right cabinet, one that will not solve the social problems that stimulate the growth of the far-right. There is therefore a real risk of even further growth of the far-right.

The centre is shifting to the right

As stable as the far right is, so unstable is the famous political centre. One of the real surprises of the elections was that the losses for the conservative-liberal, pro-business government-party VDD remained limited. But that does not mean that this party is not changing. Under its present leader Dilan Yeşilgöz, the party has clearly shifted further to the right. The VVD lost votes on its “left” from liberals who switched to D66, but this loss was offset on the right by an influx of former PVV voters who apparently agree with the party’s new orientation. As a result, the VVD is becoming less and less ‘the right wing of the centre’ and increasingly the natural ally of the far-right.

And D66 has also shifted to the right. Its leader Rob Jetten is no longer the politician who once embraced the label of climate fanatic and who showed up at a climate justice demonstration.

Instead, D66 has joined in the attacks on the politically powerless group that in the Netherlands is so often blamed for everything that goes wrong: refugees. Jetten’s D66 managed to combine right-wing positions on increasing defence spending, detaining asylum seekers outside Europe and cutting benefits with a vaguely progressive sentiment, thereby winning the elections. Only the appearance is progressive. Incidentally, the result of this shift is only two more seats than in 2021. Here too, the so-called change in pattern is not that substantial at all.
Further erosion of the centre-left

The rise of D66 came largely at the expense of GreenLeft [1] and the Labour Party. Those two parties are engaged in process of merging and participated in the elections as a joint list; GroenLinks-PvdA.

D66 also attracted votes from conservative parties but only to considerably smaller extent. The GroenLinks-PvdA merger project was an attempt to climb out of the slump that GroenLinks and the PvdA found themselves in in 2021. The PvdA had already ended up there in 2017. That year, the PvdA suffered a historic defeat of 29 seats. This was the punishment for the party’s decision, after running a campaign against the VVD, to join a VVD-led cabinet and help implement a harsh austerity agenda. The merger party would rather not be reminded of this.

In order to be an attractive alternative, GroenLinks-PvdA is now trying to present a different message. But at the same time, its political horizon is limited to striving for participation in a coalition government with the right at the soonest possible moment. Choosing to be an opposition-party that builds up counter-power seems to be literally unimaginable for its leadership. But a choice to participate in a centre-right cabinet with D66 and VVD, a real possibility, will probably end badly for the party.



GroenLinks-PvdA leader Frans Timmermans was the embodiment of the dilemma in which the new party found itself. During the elections, he declared that he had “learned” from the experience of participating in the VVD-led government when “unnecessarily harsh” austerity measures were implemented. Timmermans had been himself a minister in this cabinet, the formation of which he had strongly supported. Another of Timmermans’ achievements was his earlier role in blocking cooperation with the left-wing SP. “Never trust anyone who has ever been a communist,” he said of this. In his own way, Timmermans is a sincere politician who is convinced that cooperation with the moderate right in a centre cabinet should be the goal. But that did not help him to be convincing as the leader of a left-wing opposition party. The upshot was that GroenLinks-PvdA was unable to retain voters who were leaning towards D66 and also failed to win new voters.
Further weakening of the entire left

A second surprise was that the elections brought yet another defeat for the SP which fell from five to three seats. For almost two decades now, the party has failed to win additional seats in parliamentary elections. Little remains of the historic record set in 2006, when the party won 25 seats. The party’s lack of self-criticism is discouraging. More often than not, disappointing election results are attributed to factors outside the party. With a new party leader and combative rhetoric, the party seemed to be on the verge of a minor revival but instead, yet another disappointment followed.

Part of the explanation for this failure is the ageing of its shrinking membership and of the party’s social base. It is striking where many former SP voters are going. When people switch parties, they usually move to one that is directly adjacent to their old home. But in the case of the SP, the number of defectors who are turning radically, in this case to the far-right, is remarkably high. The SP’s “economically left-wing but socially conservative” orientation does not deter people from choosing the far-right.

All in all, there is little reason to rejoice about the so-called return of the political centre as an alternative to the far-right. Not only is this centre unstable, its content is also becoming increasingly right-wing. The left, of course, has even less reason to rejoice. The fact that the ecologist Party for the Animals managed to maintain its three seats and that the far right is somewhat more divided than before is cold comfort. These elections also showed once again that outside the major cities, the radical-left party BIJ1 (‘together’ in Dutch) is virtually non-existent. In the capital Amsterdam, BIJ1 managed to score 2.4 per cent but Amsterdam is not the Netherlands. The fact that BIJ1 has a consistent left-wing narrative, opposing militarisation, NATO and racism, is not enough. Its future is unclear. After these elections, the Dutch left is at an all-time low.
A truly left-wing policy

The decline of the Dutch left is, of course, not unique; the right is on the rise globally. It would be a mistake to attribute the election results solely to the role played by specific individuals. It is true that election campaigns are becoming more and more like show business. Many people do not vote on the basis of well-considered political convictions but are guided by “vibes”, as Jetten correctly put it. But that leaves open the question of why certain political movements succeed in appealing to such feelings. Why does anger so often take the form of racism and support for the far-right, and why is a centre-right party like D66 able to present itself as a source of hope and optimism?

A Labour Party strategist attributed their loss to “poor communication”; the party has a good story to tell but fails to convey it convincingly because it still has “too much respect for intelligence”. More crude demagoguery and empty promises should therefore compensate for the lack of strategy. Perhaps that can help to win seats, but not to pursue left-wing policies.

At present, there simply is no audience in the Netherlands large enough to make truly left-wing policies possible, policies that break with neoliberalism, that prioritise the interests of the vast majority on issues such as the housing shortage and healthcare, and that take serious measures to combat the climate crisis. For this to happen, not only must enough people desire such policies, they must also be convinced that they are possible. Until they are, people will opt for the moderate right as an alternative to the far-right. Or they will join the large group of non-voters.

Focus groups and communication strategies cannot solve this fundamental problem. Building a base for such policies will be a long-term endeavour, going against the tide. It requires organising people and addressing their daily concerns and linking that to a vision that does not stop at the next elections. It requires struggle, debate and conviction. It requires strong social movements and a political organisation that gives expression to them. The sooner we face this with sober senses and act, the better.

6 November 2025

First published on Grenzeloos.


Attached documentsno-return-of-the-centre-but-consolidation-of-the-far-right_a9257.pdf (PDF - 900.1 KiB)
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Footnotes


[1] GroenLinks (GreenLeft) was formed in 1990 from a merger of the Communist Party (CPN), the Pacifist Socialist Party (PSP), the Political Party Radicals (PPR), and the Evangelical People’s Party (EVP).

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Socialist Alternative Politics (SAP) (formerly the Dutch Socialist Workers Party) is the section of the Fourth International in the Netherlands. Grenzeloos is the name of their publication.


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