Inside the Chaos of Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan
.png)
- A U.S.-drafted peace plan has drawn criticism for mirroring Russian demands, including limits on Ukraine’s military and NATO membership.
- Leaked audio shows Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff advising a Kremlin aide on how to influence the White House, fueling accusations of bias.
- Witkoff’s upcoming sixth trip to Moscow, possibly joined by Jared Kushner, underscores Washington’s push for a deal many see as dangerously one-sided.
The White House’s lead envoy is heading to Russia for a sixth time. Ukraine fears a peace that heavily favors Moscow. A leaked phone call shows the US envoy advising a Kremlin official on how to sweet-talk the White House.
And Russia’s invasion -- now in its 46th month -- has pushed Ukraine’s beleaguered armed forces closer to the breaking point.
There’s a lot that happened in the six days since a US-drafted peace proposal first leaked – not to mention the circumstances under which it was drafted.
The 28-point plan jolted what until recently had been sputtering efforts to halt the Russian war, something that Trump had pledged to do within 24 hours of taking office in January.
Here’s what you need to know as of November 26, as diplomats and negotiators from Washington, Moscow, Kyiv, and many other European capitals wrangle over details over a concrete, and controversial plan.
The Main Sticking Points?
After the US plan leaked, and then was given to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian leader sent his chief of staff and other officials to Geneva for urgent talks with US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Zelenskyy reportedly was blindsided by the plan, which echoed most of the hard-line positions that Russia has held before the invasion.
The Geneva talks, however, produced an "updated and refined" framework – a reworked 19-point plan -- that would deliver a “sustainable and just peace,” both the White House and Zelenskyy's office said.
But Zelenskyy’s comments suggested the thorniest issues might still be on the table. That includes the fate of a chunk of the Donetsk region that the Kremlin has been hellbent on seizing.
Moscow has repeatedly said it must control all of Donetsk, one of five Ukrainian regions Putin baselessly claims are Russian. Ceding land that Ukraine’s forces have kept out of Russia’s clutches, at great cost, would be a massive concession by Kyiv and could have political repercussions for Zelenskyy.
Other pitfalls include the Kremlin’s insistence that Ukraine be forever barred from joining NATO and a potential cap on the size of Kyiv’s military.
The US draft would require Ukraine to “enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO” and the alliance to formalize a pledge that Ukraine will never be admitted.
That approach may be unpalatable for Ukraine, which wants freedom to choose its geopolitical partners – and currently has its NATO aspirations codified in its constitution.
Ukraine also wants to be able to defend itself from any potential future Russian attack.
In previous negotiations, Russia called for Ukraine’s military to be under 100,000 personnel. The initial US draft would cap it at 600,000. A European counterproposal would raise that to 800,000 “in peacetime.”
Several top Republican senators have criticized the initial US plan, including former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
"A deal that rewards aggression wouldn’t be worth the paper it’s written on. America isn’t a neutral arbiter, and we shouldn’t act like one,” he said in a post to X.
White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt claimed there had been tangible progress, saying there were only “a few delicate, but not insurmountable, details that must be sorted out."
Sixth Time’s A Charm?
A real estate developer with no diplomatic background, Steve Witkoff is the man tapped by Trump to lead efforts to find an end to Russia’s war. He’s met with Putin five times already, traveling to Moscow on his private jet.
Some of Witkoff’s prior actions have raised alarm bells to outside observers, who fear he is being manipulated or that he misunderstands the war’s deeply intractable historical contours.
Witkoff has relied on translators provided by the Kremlin for his conversations with Putin and other officials, rather than using translators authorized by the US Embassy.
After Witkoff’s last meeting with Putin in August, US and European officials said the envoy misunderstood the geography of Ukrainian territory Putin was claiming.
Representative Don Bacon, a Republican who has criticized the Trump administration’s engagement with Russia, called for Witkoff to be fired.
Sending Witkoff back to Moscow, a visit Kremlin foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov confirmed would happen next week, is a sign that the White House is eager to cement some or all of the points that were set in Geneva and Abu Dhabi.
Another wild-card: Trump mentioned his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, might accompany Witkoff, something neither Ushakov nor Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on.
Kushner was reportedly present for previously undisclosed US meeting involving Witkoff and Russian who is also not a diplomat but who has played a starring, unconventional role in negotiations with the Americans: Kirill Dmitriev.
Wait, A Leaked Phone Call?
In late October, Dmitriev, a sharp-tongued, Harvard-trained businessman who heads Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, traveled to Miami, Florida. He met with Republican Representative Anna Luna, giving her what he said were undisclosed Russian files on the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. He also gave her a box of chocolates and a book of Putin quotes.
Dmitriev had been blacklisted in 2022, along with other Russian officials, in punishment for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Trump's Treasury secretary has called him a "Kremlin propagandist."
It later emerged that Dmitriev, who was given an exemption by US authorities to travel, had secret meetings with Witkoff and Kushner while in Miami— reportedly leaving some White House and State Department officials in the dark.
After news of the US proposal emerged last week, several US senators said that Rubio told them the draft was Russian in nature, influenced by a Russian, though Dmitriev was not named.
Rubio, who was in Geneva, insisted it was a US draft.
On November 25, not long before Trump announced Witkoff would travel to Moscow, Bloomberg News published a transcript of what it said was telephone call between Witkoff and Ushakov.
The call took place on October 14, two days before Trump and Putin held their own call, on October 16 -- and about two weeks before Witkoff met Dmitriev in Miami.
According to the transcript, Witkoff advised Ushakov on how to charm Trump on a possible peace deal.
“I would make the call and just reiterate that you congratulate the president on this achievement, that you supported it, you supported it, that you respect that he is a man of peace and you’re just, you’re really glad to have seen it happen. So I would say that,” Witkoff was quoted as saying.
“I know what it’s going to take to get a peace deal done: Donetsk and maybe a land swap somewhere,” Witkoff reportedly said.
Bloomberg did not say how it obtained the recording, which was likely made by US intelligence agencies who routinely monitor and eavesdrop on foreign officials’ conversations. RFE/RL could not independently verify the transcript.
Trump partially confirmed the fact of the call, though not its content: “He’s got to sell this to Ukraine. He’s going to sell Ukraine to Russia. That’s what a dealmaker does.”
Ushakov also appeared to confirm the fact of the call, telling a Russian state TV reporter that it was leaked to undermine the backchannel negotiations. He later told the newspaper Kommersant that his conversation with Witkoff had occurred via the WhatsApp messaging app.
“It is unlikely that such a leak could have come from the participants in the conversation,” he was quoted as saying.
By RFE/RL
Will a Ukraine Peace Deal Really Lure Europe Back to Russian Gas?
- Peace deal uncertainty clouds outlook for Russian energy flows, as Washington’s envoys push for a Ukraine-Russia agreement that Moscow has yet to endorse.
- Analysts say even a ceasefire would not reverse Europe’s break from Russian gas after 2022.
- Gas prices remain subdued despite lower storage, with EU reserves around 77% full and benchmark TTF prices dipping below €30/MWh for the first time in 18 months.
As the Trump Administration looks to broker a Ukraine-Russia peace deal, analysts and traders seek to anticipate how a potential agreement could change energy flows in Europe.
To be sure, a peace deal is far from certain, as stumbling blocks and differences remain, while Russia has not weighed in on the plan yet. White House envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Moscow next week to discuss the peace plan with the Kremlin as Russia appears reluctant to accept any offer that doesn’t fully meet all its demands.
Even if a deal is reached – and this is not the base case scenario of many traders and observers – it is unlikely to change Europe’s reluctance to return to the Russian energy dependence which it has fought so hard to shake off. Most analysts say even a clean ceasefire wouldn’t meaningfully shift Europe’s stance after 2022.
Going off Russian pipeline gas cost European households and industries a lot as energy bills and industry costs surged. More than three years after the energy crisis began to take its toll on Europe’s cost of living and competitiveness, the prospect of eased energy flows from Russia is not particularly appealing to most of the EU.
No Turning Back
Russian gas has not been banned in the EU, and will not be for another year. As-is, the EU aims to stop LNG imports from Russia from 2027.
It’s unlikely that a peace deal would reverse Europe’s course to cut off dependence on Russian energy once and for all.
Europe also doesn’t have an easy way to restart Russian pipeline flows even if a peace deal landed tomorrow. Nord Stream is physically destroyed, Yamal–Europe has been shut since Poland terminated its contract, and Ukraine’s own transit agreement with Gazprom expires next year with no political appetite to renew it. The hardware, contracts, and politics simply don’t line up for a quick return.
Related: UK Risks Gas Shortages in 2030s as Domestic Output Plunges
“Even if sanctions on Russia's energy sector were eased, European governments would be reluctant to re-embrace Moscow as a core supplier after the shock of 2022,” Reuters columnist Ron Bousso wrote in his opinion column this week.
Indeed, most EU member states haven’t received Russian gas for three years and many don’t plan to return depending on the Kremlin for supply even if a fair peace deal for Ukraine is reached.
After three difficult years, and especially winters, with soaring gas prices in Europe, this year prices have held in a narrow trading range despite the fact that European gas storage sites were filling at a slower pace ahead of the winter compared to previous years. Storage levels are about 10 percentage points lower than at this time last year and the five-year average. As of November 25, gas storage sites across the EU were about 77% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.
Despite the lower levels of gas in storage, the market appears to believe that Europe will have enough supply this winter, mostly thanks to record U.S. LNG exports, most of which are going to Europe right now.
Even if Russian pipeline gas magically came back into play, Europe has already rebuilt its entire supply picture around LNG.
Strong LNG Flows Ease Winter Supply Concerns
The U.S. exported 10.1 million metric tons of LNG in October, per data from LSEG cited by Reuters, becoming the first country ever to ship out more than 10 million metric tons in a single month. The start-up of Venture Global’s Plaquemines export project and the ramp-up of Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 facility led the increase.
Europe took almost 69% of all U.S. LNG exports last month, the LSEG data showed.
The U.S. is set to further boost its LNG exports in the coming months and years.
The U.S. is expected to export 14.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG this year, up by 25% from 2024, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) this month. Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana has ramped up exports more quickly than the EIA expected, leading the administration to raise its forecast of LNG exports in the current quarter by 3% compared with last month’s outlook. The EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to increase by an additional 10% in 2026.
The supply wave of U.S. LNG will continue through this decade as LNG developers are taking advantage of market and regulatory tailwinds to approve investments in new projects.
Supply from Qatar is also set to rise as the world’s second-largest LNG exporter after the U.S. is hiking production and export capacity in the biggest LNG expansion ever. Qatar looks to boost its export capacity by a whopping 85% from current levels by 2030.
The LNG supply wave is good news for Europe, if the EU moves to significantly scale back its Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which places additional barriers to LNG flows to Europe, and even penalties on companies.
The EU is working to rewrite the proposed legislation, fearing its supply security is at stake.
With the start of the winter heating season amid lower-than-usual inventories, Europe’s gas prices haven’t spiked as in previous winters.
On the contrary, the benchmark price at the TTF hub in Amsterdam slipped below the key threshold of 30 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) this week, for the first time in a year and a half, amid strong LNG flows, milder temperatures, and negotiations about the end of the war in Ukraine.
In a sign that gas supply conditions in France and Europe have stabilized, French supermajor TotalEnergies will demobilize its LNG floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) in the port of Le Havre, which was installed in 2022 to serve as a “safety net” for gas supply. The floating terminal is no longer necessary, TotalEnergies said this week.
Another sign of a well-supplied market is that portfolio managers have turned increasingly bearish on European gas.
The latest positioning data showed that speculators shifted from a net long to a net short position on the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) futures for the first time since March 2024, according to ING.
“The move was once again driven by fresh shorts entering the market, which pushed the gross short to yet another record high,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Thursday.
“This large short position leaves a fair amount of positioning risk, if any supply or demand surprises emerge through the winter.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
BACKGROUND
1. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed.
2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.
3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further.
4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation.
5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.
7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
10. The US will receive compensation for the security guarantees it provides. If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated and recognition of its new territories and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked. If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will also be deemed invalid.
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.
12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine will be established, including the creation of a Ukraine Development Fund, the rebuilding of Ukraine's gas infrastructure, the rehabilitation of war-affected areas, the development of new infrastructure and a resumption of the extraction of minerals and natural resources, all with a special finance package developed by the World Bank.
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy, with discussions on lifting sanctions, rejoining the G8 group and entering a long-term economic cooperation agreement with the United States.
14. Some $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine, with the US receiving 50 percent of the profits from the venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine's reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen, and the remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle.
15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.
16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.
17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.
18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine.
20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programmes in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance.
21. Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian, including by the United States. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de-facto recognition along the line of contact. Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, which will then be used to create a buffer zone.
22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.
23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve prisoner exchanges and the return of remains, hostages and civilian detainees, and a family reunification programme will be implemented.
25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.
26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by US President Donald Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.
28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to the agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.
(FRANCE 24 with AFP)
