An illegal fentanyl supply shock may have contributed to a dramatic decline in U.S. deaths

Summary author: Becky Ham

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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After rising for decades in the United States, opioid overdose deaths have been declining dramatically since 2023, with the annual rate of fentanyl overdose deaths dropping by more than a third by the end of 2024. What’s behind this sudden decline? In this Policy Forum, Kasey Vangelov and colleagues evaluate the evidence for an international supply shock in fentanyl in 2023 and conclude that it could be responsible for the steep decline in overdose deaths. Studying the ups and downs of an illegal drug economy is difficult, but the researchers use data from several sources, including a spike in U.S.-based Reddit users’ reports of a fentanyl drought in mid-to-late 2023. Fentanyl seized during this period shows a concurrent decline in purity and seizures themselves fell during the period, despite being an intense focus of law enforcement. In Canada, supply indicators of fentanyl precursors from China declined at the same time. Together, this evidence indicates that supply disruption may be behind the drop off in fentanyl deaths. “The incentive to restore the illicit fentanyl trade will persist as long as there is demand for the drug …” Vangelov et al. write, adding that “… it may be wise to use the current drought as an opportunity to ramp up the prevention and treatment programs that have evidence of decreasing demand.”

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Journal

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.aea6130 

Article Title

Did the illicit fentanyl trade experience a supply shock?

Article Publication Date

8-Jan-2026

 

Is “Smoking Gun” evidence enough to prove scientific discovery?

When it comes to replication, sometimes the scientific process in the natural sciences also misfires

University of Pittsburgh

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image: 

Dramatic smoking gun patterns can signify important effects in topological condensed matter physics, but these originate from mundane fine-tuning in complex samples 

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Credit: Frolov Lab

A group of scientists, including Sergey Frolov, professor of physics at the University of Pittsburgh, and coauthors from Minnesota and Grenoble have undertaken several replication studies centered around topological effects in nanoscale superconducting or semiconducting devices. This field is important because it can bring about topological quantum computing, a hypothetical way of storing and manipulating quantum information while protecting it against errors. 

In all cases they found alternative explanations of similar data. While the original papers claimed advances for quantum computing and made their way into top scientific journals, the individual follow-ups could not make it past the editors at those same journals.  Reasons given for its rejection included that being a replication it was not novel; that after a couple of years the field has moved on. But replications take time and effort and the experiments are resource-intensive and cannot happen overnight. And important science does not become irrelevant on the scale of years. 

The scientists then united several replication attempts in the same field of topological quantum computing into a single paper. The aim was twofold: demonstrate that even very dramatic signatures that may appear consistent with major breakthroughs can have other explanations–especially when fuller datasets are considered, and outline changes to the research and peer review process that have the potential to increase the reliability of experimental results: sharing more data and openly discussing alternative explanations. 

It took significant time and argumentation for the rest of the community to accept this possibility: the paper spent a record two years under peer and editorial review. It was submitted in September 2023.  It will publish in the journal Science on January 8 2026.

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Journal

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.adk9181 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Data sharing helps avoid “smoking gun” claims of topological milestones

Article Publication Date

8-Jan-2026

 

More data, more sharing can help avoid misinterpreting “smoking gun” signals in topological physics

Summary author: Becky Ham

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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In topological condensed matter physics, where major discoveries could hold big implications for fields like information technology, the reliability of such discoveries could be greatly enhanced by taking several steps, like presenting larger sets of data, say Sergey Frolov and colleagues. Their insights are based in part on four original experiments they did that correspond to either theory predictions or published work. “Overall,” write the authors, “although replication crises are typically perceived to be a problem in fields less quantitative than physics, the overemphasis on smoking- gun claims has the potential to affect the reliability of findings irrespective of field.”  Electrons in solids are restricted by their energies to certain intervals or bands that determine the solid’s electronic properties. These bands can be re-ordered into new topologies in non-traditional or re-structured materials, yielding unique electronic properties that could be useful in applications such as quantum computing and data storage. Guided by theory, condensed matter physicists design experiments to identify when a new topological regime has been achieved in a material, looking for a particular “smoking gun” signal that indicates the new topology. Now, Sergey Frolov and colleagues show in four experiments in topological physics that these smoking gun signals can also arise from trivial phenomena that mimic the true signal of a topological change. By fine-tuning their experimental parameters, Frolov et al. suggest, some researchers may be introducing a confirmation bias that points to the “discovery” of a smoking gun. Releasing comprehensive data sets, disclosing the full volume of their study and exploring alternative scenarios for the signal could help mitigate the risk of misleading smoking guns, Frolov et al. conclude.

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Journal

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.adk9181 

Article Title

Data sharing helps avoid “smoking gun” claims of topological milestones

Article Publication Date

8-Jan-2026

 

Scientists find microbes enhance the benefits of trees by removing greenhouse gases

Monash University

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Key points
 

• Researchers have revealed trillions of microbes live in the bark of every tree

• Tree microbes clean the air by removing greenhouse and toxic gases 

• This suggests planting trees offers climate benefits beyond CO2 removal

 

Australian researchers have discovered a hidden climate superpower of trees. Their bark harbours trillions of microbes that help scrub the air of greenhouse and toxic gases.

It’s long been known that trees fight global warming by consuming carbon dioxide (CO2) through photosynthesis. But a new study published in Science shows their microbial partners take up vast amounts of other climate-active gases too. 

The study, conducted primarily by Dr Bob Leung at Monash University’s Biomedicine Discovery Institute (BDI), and Dr Luke Jeffrey at Southern Cross University’s Faculty of Science and Engineering, rewrites our understanding of how trees and their resident microbes shape the atmosphere. 

“Each tree hosts trillions of microbial cells on its bark,” said Dr Leung, a co-first author. “Yet their existence and roles have been overlooked for many decades until now.”

The researchers spent five years sampling trees across eastern Australia, including wetland, upland, and mangrove forests.

They then used advanced genomic and biogeochemical techniques to determine, for the first time, the identities, capabilities and activities of the microbes living in their bark. 

“Remarkably, most of these microbes are tree-adapted specialists that feed on climate-active gases,” Dr Leung said. “They consume methane, hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and even volatile compounds released by the trees themselves.”

Dr Jeffrey, also a co-first author, said the scale of this hidden process was staggering.

“Counting all trees on Earth, the total global surface area of bark covers an area roughly the same as all seven continents combined,” he said. “This microbial activity across this massive ‘bark continent’ is potentially removing millions of tonnes of climate-active gases every year.

“These gases can come from the atmosphere or from within tree stems. By consuming these unwanted gases, microbes in bark are essentially cleansing our air and enhancing the benefits of trees in multiple ways.” 

The BDI’s Professor Chris Greening, who co-led the study with Southern Cross University’s Professor Damien Maher, said there was much long-term potential to use these findings for climate action.

“We now know different trees host different microbes,” Professor Greening said. “If we can identify the trees with the most active gas-consuming microbes, they could become priority targets for reforestation and urban greening projects.”

Professor Greening added that the discovery could benefit both climate and human health. “In addition to being a climate-active gas, carbon monoxide is also a toxic air pollutant,” he said. “Tree microbes are helping scrub it from the air and so improve air quality.”

Professor Maher said there were many more discoveries to be made in this research area. “This research is really the tip of the iceberg in terms of expanding our understanding of how trees and microbes interact,” he said.

 

“The diversity of microbes that we found living in the bark of these trees suggests that we may need to rethink how trees and forests control Earth’s climate now and into the future”.
 

The tree species included paperbark (Melaleuca quinquenervia), Swamp box (Lophostemon suaveolens) and Swamp oak (Casuarina glauca) from freshwater wetland forest; Banksia (Banksia integrifolia) and Golden wattle (Acacia longifolia) from coastal heath forest; Mangrove (Avicennia marina) from mangrove forest; Grey ironbark (Eucalyptus siderophloia) and Grey Gum (Eucalyptus propinqua) from upland forest. 

Read the full paper, published in Science, titled Bark microbiota modulate climate-active gas fluxes in Australian forests, at https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adu2182

Journal

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.adu2182 

Article Title

Bark microbiota modulate climate- active gas fluxes in Australian forests

Article Publication Date

9-Jan-2026