Cuba braces for economic collapse as US blocks Venezuelan oil supplies
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US President Donald Trump has warned Cuba it will no longer receive oil supplies or financial support from Venezuela, calling on the island's government to negotiate terms with Washington in the aftermath of last week's operation that resulted in Nicolás Maduro's capture.
Writing on Truth Social on January 11, Trump stated no oil or money would reach Cuba from its South American ally, providing no specifics about what kind of agreement he sought or its intended purpose.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel responded swiftly, rejecting any external interference in his country's affairs and pledging the nation stood prepared to defend itself completely. "Cuba is a free, independent and sovereign nation. No one tells us what to do," Díaz-Canel wrote on X.
The exchange follows the January 3 US commando operation in Caracas that resulted in Maduro's detention alongside his wife. According to Havana's government, 32 Cuban nationals died during the raid, individuals whom Washington claims provided protection services to the Venezuelan leadership.
Trump's threats come as Cuba's communist system shows mounting signs of strain amid deepening economic hardship and crumbling infrastructure. The island has experienced severe food shortages, with an estimated 1.4mn people failing to meet daily caloric requirements in 2023, whilst extreme poverty affected 88% of the population by 2024. Growing numbers of Havana residents have been forced to scavenge through rubbish bins for sustenance as the government's socialist safety net has collapsed.
Trump asserted that Cuba had depended on substantial petroleum deliveries and monetary transfers from Venezuela over many years, receiving these benefits in return for supplying security personnel to Maduro and former president Hugo Chávez. He stated most of these Cuban operatives were killed in the recent American assault.
Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez, however, disputed the allegations, insisting Cuba has never accepted payment or material compensation for providing security assistance to foreign governments. He maintained his country possesses full authority to acquire fuel from any exporter willing to conduct business, rejecting Washington's economic restrictions as legitimate constraints on such commerce.
On January 12, Díaz-Canel clarified that bilateral discussions with Washington were limited to technical migration coordination, contradicting Trump's implications about broader negotiations. The Cuban leader specified that meaningful engagement would require "adherence to sovereign equality, reciprocal respect, international legal principles, mutual advantage, non-interference in domestic matters and complete recognition of Cuban independence.”
Trump last week stated Cuba appeared on the verge of collapse, pointing out that the island had depended entirely on Venezuelan petroleum for its income and would struggle without this resource.
Indeed, Cuba faces severe economic difficulties, compounded by long-standing US sanctions and what was an already dwindling supply of subsidised Venezuelan crude oil. The island uses this fuel to operate diesel generators that support an unstable electrical system experiencing regular power failures. The country's power infrastructure has suffered from years of underinvestment and is "literally crumbling", according to Philip Paterson, senior analyst for Latin America at Oxford Analytica, causing frequent nationwide blackouts.
The oil arrangement between ideologically aligned Havana and Caracas dates back to 2000, when Chávez established the subsidised supply agreement. This Venezuelan backing offered a crucial lifeline after the Soviet Union's collapse ended Moscow's economic support to Cuba. However, as Venezuela's own crisis worsened, this aid has largely dried up.
"China is willing to deal with Cuba, but it's not ideologically committed to supporting it the way the Soviet Union or Venezuela were, and it's not keen to deal with charity cases," Paterson said last July during an Oxford Analytica webinar.
American crippling economic sanctions against Cuba have remained in force for over six decades. Washington's reclassification of Cuba as a "state sponsor of terrorism" under Trump's first term has made travel to the United States more difficult for anyone who has visited the island, and placed additional restrictions on companies seeking to do business there. As a result, many tour operators have stopped operating in Cuba, cutting off a critical source of foreign currency.
On January 11, Trump shared a social media post suggesting Marco Rubio might assume leadership of Cuba, voicing his approval of the idea. Rubio, whose parents emigrated from Cuba, currently holds the secretary of state position whilst serving simultaneously as national security adviser and previously heading the US Agency for International Development.
According to analysts, Rubio views Venezuelan regime change as a stepping stone to his ultimate objective of ending communist rule in Cuba. He has long argued that toppling Maduro's government would deal a fatal blow to the communist-run island by undermining Havana's principal supporter.
Another key factor differentiating the current period from earlier crises is leadership. Díaz-Canel, who belongs to the post-revolution generation, does not command the same credibility as the Castro brothers, even if he remains committed to the ideology of the revolution, according to Paterson.
"Expectations of government collapse are writ large now," Paterson said, pointing to reduced external assistance, increasing external pressure, and a leadership that lacks the historic legitimacy of its predecessors.
Maduro's abduction, framed by the White House as law enforcement activity to prosecute the authoritarian leader on narcoterrorism charges, generated widespread international criticism over what critics described as a blatant violation of international law.
The latest warnings to Cuba form part of Trump's broader regional strategy, which he branded the "Donroe Doctrine" in reference to nineteenth-century American foreign policy asserting hemispheric influence. Following the Venezuela operation, Trump has directed threatening statements towards Colombia, Mexico, Iran and Greenland.
By AFP
January 12, 2026
Cubans have lived under more than 60 years of US sanctions - Copyright AFP Adalberto ROQUE
Cuba’s leader on Monday reacted defiantly to President Donald Trump’s threats to “make a deal” or pay the price in the aftermath of key ally Nicolas Maduro’s ouster in a US military raid.
Trump has been ramping up pressure on Cuba, one of the few Latin American countries still run by an authoritarian leftist administration after Venezuelan leader Maduro’s capture on January 3.
“We’re talking with Cuba,” Trump said aboard Air Force One on Sunday, hours after urging Havana to do a deal to head off unspecified US actions.
The Republican president, who says Washington is now effectively running Venezuela, earlier vowed to cut off all oil and money Caracas had been providing to ailing Cuba.
“THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.
“I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” he said, without specifying what kind of deal he was promoting or what would happen if Cuba refused to negotiate.
Cuba, which is struggling through its worst economic crisis in decades, has reacted defiantly to the US threats even as it reels from the loss of a key source of economic support from Caracas.
President Miguel Diaz-Canel denied Monday being in talks with Washington, saying there are “no conversations with the US government except for technical contacts in the area of migration.”
– ‘To the last drop’ –
On Sunday, Diaz-Canel vowed that the Caribbean island’s residents were “ready to defend the homeland to the last drop of blood.”
Cuba has been a thorn in the side of the United States since the revolution that swept communist Fidel Castro to power in 1959.
The deployment of Soviet nuclear missile sites on the island triggered the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, when Washington and Moscow took the world to the brink of nuclear war.
During his first presidential term, Trump walked back a detente with Cuba launched by his predecessor Barack Obama.
Immediately after the US capture of Maduro in a dramatic raid in Caracas, Trump stated that Cuba was “ready to fall.”
He noted that the island, which has been plagued by blackouts due to crippling fuel shortages, would find it hard to “hold out” without heavily subsidized Venezuelan oil.
The Financial Times last week reported that Mexican oil exports to Cuba had surpassed those of Venezuela last year.
– Role for Rubio? –
Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a child of Cuban immigrants who is a sworn foe of the communist government, has long had Havana in his sights.
“If I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I’d be concerned at least a little bit,” he told reporters on January 3, after Maduro’s capture and transfer to the United States on drug trafficking and weapons charges.
Aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump referred to the generations of Cubans, like Rubio’s parents, who had fled the island to the United States.
“Most importantly, right now, we’re going to take care of the people that came from Cuba, that are American citizens, or in our country,” Trump said, without saying how he would achieve that.
He also reposted a message that jokingly suggested Rubio could serve as president of Cuba.
burs-cb/msp
Trump tells Cuba to ‘make a deal, before it is too late’
By AFP
January 11, 2026
About a quarter of Cuba's citizens are eldery, and many of them are poor
US President Donald Trump urged Cuba on Sunday to “make a deal” or face unspecified consequences, warning that the flow of Venezuelan oil and money to Havana would now stop.
The communist-run island near Florida has been a US foe and ally of Caracas for decades, but Trump has ramped up his threatening language in recent days — particularly after Washington toppled Venezuela’s leftist leader Nicolas Maduro.
“THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” Trump said on his Truth Social platform. “I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.”
Trump provided no details about what potential deal he referred to, or what such an arrangement would achieve.
His remarks come a week after US forces seized Venezuela’s authoritarian leader Maduro in a nighttime operation in Caracas that killed dozens of Venezuelan and Cuban security forces.
A week ago, Trump stated that “Cuba is ready to fall,” noting that the island’s economic crisis was worsening and that it would be difficult for Havana to “hold out” without receiving heavily subsidized Venezuelan oil.
Earlier on Sunday the president reposted a message suggesting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio — a child of Cuban immigrants — could become the president of Cuba.
US President Donald Trump is heaping pressure on Cuba, the communist-ruled island nation barely 90 miles (145 kilometers) from the state of Florida – Copyright AFP OMAR HAJ KADOUR
Trump shared that post with the comment: “Sounds good to me!”
In a separate message soon afterwards, Trump said that “Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela. In return, Cuba provided ‘Security Services’ for the last two Venezuelan dictators, BUT NOT ANYMORE!”
“Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last week’s U.S.A. attack, and Venezuela doesn’t need protection anymore from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years.”
Cuba’s communist government rejected the suggestion that Havana had been in the pocket of Caracas.
Cuba has “never received monetary or material compensation for the security services it has provided to any country,” Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez posted on X.
He noted Havana has the right to import fuel from any willing exporter, “without interference or subordination to the unilateral coercive measures of the United States.”
– ‘Beginning of the end’ –
Under a US trade embargo, Havana since 2000 has increasingly relied on Venezuelan oil provided as part of a deal struck with Maduro’s predecessor, the firebrand leftist Hugo Chavez.
Trump’s provocative language on Cuba comes as the emboldened American leader has hinted he has other countries in his sights after capturing Maduro.
Trump, who had openly sought last year’s Nobel Peace Prize, has recently threatened Colombia, Mexico, Iran and Greenland.
Some Republican US lawmakers on Sunday lauded Trump for his aggressive comments on Cuba, including Mario Diaz-Balart, a US congressman from Florida.
“We are witnessing what I am convinced will be the beginning of the end of the regime in Havana,” Diaz-Balart posted in Spanish on X.
“The tyranny in Cuba will not survive the second term of President Trump, and Cuba will finally be free after decades of misery, tragedy, and pain.”
AFP
US President Donald Trump urged Cuba on Sunday to “make a deal” soon, pledging to cut off all oil and money flowing to the communist-run island after the toppling of Havana’s key ally, Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.
The threatening social media post drew an angry retort from Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel, who said “no one” would tell his country what to do.
Washington has imposed economy-crippling sanctions on its island neighbour for decades, but Trump has ramped up the pressure in recent days.
US special forces seized Maduro and his wife this month in a lightning raid that left dozens of the ousted Venezuelan president’s security personnel dead — many of whom were Cuban.
Though Maduro’s allies have become interim leaders, Trump has claimed the United States now actually controls Venezuela through a US naval blockade of its vital oil sector.
“THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO!” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.
“I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.”
He said, “Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela. In return, Cuba provided ‘Security Services’ for the last two Venezuelan dictators, BUT NOT ANYMORE!” “Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last week’s U.S.A. attack, and Venezuela doesn’t need protection anymore from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years.”
Trump provided almost no details about what potential deal he referred to, or what such an arrangement would achieve.
Asked about it later on Sunday, Trump told reporters travelling with him on Air Force One that he wanted people forced out of Cuba or who “left under duress” to be taken care of.
“Most importantly, right now, we’re going to take care of the people that came from Cuba, that are American citizens, or in our country,” Trump said, without clarifying how this would be achieved under a deal with Havana.
‘Ready to fall’
A week ago, Trump stated that “Cuba is ready to fall,” noting that the island’s economic crisis was worsening and it would be difficult for Havana to “hold out” without receiving heavily subsidised Venezuelan oil.
Earlier on Sunday, the president reposted a message that jokingly suggested US Secretary of State Marco Rubio — a child of Cuban immigrants who concurrently holds the posts of national security advisor, acting head of the US archives, and acting international aid administrator — could also become the president of Cuba.
Trump shared that post with the comment: “Sounds good to me!” Cuba’s president rebuffed Trump’s threatening language, saying the Caribbean island’s residents were “ready to defend the homeland to the last drop of blood.” “Cuba is a free, independent and sovereign nation. No one tells us what to do,” Diaz-Canel wrote on X.
Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez also weighed in to stress that Cuba is within its rights to import fuel from any willing exporter, “without interference or subordination to the unilateral coercive measures of the United States.”
‘Talk, talk, talk’
A Cold War-era US trade embargo has cinched Cuba’s economy beginning in 1962, and since 2000 Havana has increasingly relied on Venezuelan oil provided as part of a deal struck with Maduro’s predecessor, the firebrand leftist Hugo Chavez.
On Sunday in the streets of Havana, retiree Mercedes Simon seemed to dismiss the US leader’s latest bluster.
“Trump is not going to touch Cuba,” the 65-year-old told AFP.
“All the presidents talk, talk, talk” about Cuba, for decades, “but they don’t act.” Marcos Sanchez, a 21-year-old working in the restaurant business, said the two countries should find common ground, “without resorting to violence.”
Trump’s provocative language on Cuba comes as the emboldened American leader has hinted he has other countries in his sights after capturing Maduro.
Trump, who had openly sought last year’s Nobel Peace Prize, has recently threatened Colombia, Mexico, Iran and Greenland.
Some Republican US lawmakers on Sunday lauded Trump for his aggressive comments on Cuba, including Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart from Florida.
“The tyranny in Cuba will not survive the second term of President Trump,” Diaz-Balart posted in Spanish on X, “and Cuba will finally be free after decades of misery, tragedy, and pain.”
