Team evaluates CMIP6 climate models that simulate multiyear El Niño events

Focused on El Niño events and spring precipitation over southern China

Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research (OLAR)

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This graphical abstract summarizes the evaluation of CMIP6 historical simulations in representing multiyear El Niño events and their impacts on spring precipitation over southern China. While most models reproduce the occurrence of multiyear El Niño events, notable biases remain in their frequency, duration, and associated precipitation patterns. The E3SM-1-0 model shows relatively better performance, capturing the observed precipitation increase linked to realistic moisture transport and uplift processes.

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Credit: Zhang X, Zhong W, Li Q, Hu X, Li M, Kong Y.

A research team has evaluated a collection of climate models to better understand how well they can simulate multiyear El Niño events and their impact on spring precipitation over southern China. Their study showed that while many climate models can reproduce the multiyear El Niño events, most of them struggle to simulate their impacts on southern China’s spring precipitation.

 

Their work is published in the journal Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research on December 16, 2025.

Multiyear El Niño events have become more frequent in recent decades. They impact the climate in markedly different ways than single year El Niño events. El Niño is one phase of the larger El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

 

The spring precipitation over southern China following multiyear El Niño events is greater than the precipitation during single-year events. Yet the ability of current climate models to simulate these events and their associated regional impact is uncertain. “The core problem was that it remained unclear whether current CMIP6 climate models could accurately simulate these multi-year events and, more importantly, capture the related atmospheric circulation and precipitation responses over southern China during the second year of these events,” said Xiaoman Zhang, a master’s student at Sun Yat‐sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory.

 

The research team undertook their study using 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. These CMIP6 models are a group of advanced global climate models that come from research centers around the world. They simulate past and future climate change. “We aimed to better understand how well current CMIP6 climate models can simulate multiyear El Niño events and their associated impacts on spring precipitation over southern China,” said Xiaoming Hu, a professor at Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory. The team assessed the performance of the 39 CMIP6 models in simulating multiyear El Niño events. Their study covers the period from 1950 to 2014, studying the spring precipitation in the following years.

 

Southern China is a densely populated and economically developed region that is vulnerable to frequent droughts and floods. The spring precipitation there accounts for more than 30 percent of the total annual precipitation in the region. The variability of the spring rainfall from year to year increases the risks of drought and flood. This variability presents challenges for farming and water resources management.

 

The team’s evaluation of the 39 CPMIP6 models showed that most models can capture the general occurrence of multiyear El Niño events and their impact on spring precipitation over southern China. However, the climate models are not as successful in reproducing the associated spring precipitation anomalies.

 

The team did note that the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1.0 (E3SM-1-0) is the only model that reproduces the observed increase in precipitation over southern China and simulates realistic water vapor transport and convergence-related uplift. However, even that model fails to accurately simulate the large-scale circulation anomalies connected with these events.

 

Only a few models were able to capture both the observed precipitation pattern and the associated large-scale circulation anomalies, such as changes in the western North Pacific anticyclone. This indicates substantial inter-model differences in representing the underlying physical mechanisms. As a result, uncertainties in simulating multiyear El Niño teleconnections may limit the reliability of regional climate projections and seasonal predictions based on current climate models.

 

“The key message of this study is that while many CMIP6 models can reproduce the occurrence of multiyear El Niño events, most of them struggle to realistically simulate their impacts on spring precipitation over southern China,” said Meng Li, a meteorological engineer at Handan Meteorological Bureau.

 

Looking ahead, the team wants to investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for the model performance differences, particularly why some models outperform others in simulating multiyear El Niño impacts. This would include examining air-sea coupling processes, tropical Pacific sea surface temperature evolution, and atmospheric circulation responses. “Ultimately, our goal is to improve the representation of multiyear El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and their teleconnections in climate models. This work will help provide more reliable climate information for assessing regional impacts, reducing disaster risks, and supporting climate adaptation, particularly in East Asia,” said Zhang.

 

The team includes Xiaoman Zhang, Wenxiu Zhong, and Xiaoming Hu, Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory; Qingquan Li, National Climate Centre, Beijing, and Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology; Meng Li, Handan Meteorological Bureau; and Yunqi Kong, Guangdong Ecological Meteorological Centre.

 

This research is funded by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai).

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Journal

Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research

DOI

10.34133/olar.0126 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Assessment of CMIP6 in Simulating Multiyear El Niño and the Associated Spring Precipitation over Southern China

Article Publication Date

16-Dec-2025

 

Scientists trace microplastics in fertilizer from fields to the beach

First steps in tracing major pollutant source in “missing plastics” problem

Tokyo Metropolitan University

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Fate of microplastics in PCFs. Of polymer-coated fertilizer capsules used in paddies, 77% stay there and only 0.2% are estimated to end up on the beach, leaving 22.8% “missing” plastic waste.

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Credit: Tokyo Metropolitan University

Tokyo, Japan – Researchers from Tokyo Metropolitan University have studied how polymer-coated fertilizer (PCF) applied to fields ends up on beaches and in the sea. They studied PCF deposits on beaches around Japan, finding that only 0.2% of used PCFs are washed into rivers and returned to the coastline. When there are canals connecting fields to the sea, this rises to 28%. Their findings highlight a potentially significant “sink” in the global circulation of plastics.

 

Plastic marine pollution poses a serious threat to wildlife, ecosystems, and human health. It is estimated that around 90% of the plastic that has flowed out to sea has disappeared from the sea surface, accumulated on the sea floor or any number of other “sinks.” To effectively reduce the amount of “missing plastics,” scientists have been studying the complex ways by which plastic material is transported from its point of use to the sea.

Polymer-coated fertilizer (PCF) is a major source of microplastic pollution. Certain fertilizers are coated in a thin layer of plastic to delay the release of chemicals, making it last longer. They are widely used in Japan and China for rice cultivation, as well as for wheat, corn, and other crops in the U.S., U.K., and Western Europe. In fact, it has been shown that 50-90% of plastic debris found on beaches in Japan is derived from PCFs. Yet, the way in which PCFs are carried from land to sea, and how that affects its eventual disappearance, is not well understood.

A team of researchers from Tokyo Metropolitan University, led by Professor Masayuki Kawahigashi and Dr. Dolgormaa Munkhbat, surveyed the amount of PCFs ending up on beaches across different environments. They focused on beaches near river mouths and direct drainage points from agricultural fields to the sea, surveying 147 plots across 17 beaches. Near river mouths, they estimated that the PCFs found on beaches there amount to less than 0.2% of what was used in surrounding areas. With 77% staying on fields, the remaining 22.8% wash out to sea. On the other hand, surveys around direct drainage points from agricultural land to the sea showed that 28% end up back on the beach. The team concluded that waves and tidal action help them wash back onto land, making beaches a temporary sink for microplastics. Given that most PCFs lost from fields end up in rivers, the majority of these plastic capsules end up going “missing.”

The team also noticed that many of the PCF microplastics they found showed significant reddening and browning. Analysis with Energy-Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDX) revealed newly added particles of iron and aluminum oxide, which may be weighing the capsules down, making them less likely to wash back to shore. While many challenges remain in understanding the complex transport of a major pollutant, the team’s survey is a key first step in tracing how PCFs contribute to the global challenge of missing plastics.

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Journal

Marine Pollution Bulletin

DOI

10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.119086 

Article Title

A first approach to estimate the leakage of polymer-coated fertilizer-derived microplastics from paddy fields to beaches

 

When aging affects the young: Revealing the weight of caregiving on teenagers

COVID era survey explores care burdens young carers face

Osaka Metropolitan University

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Surveys during and after COVID-19 shed light on young caregivers and the impact on their well-being.

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Credit: Osaka Metropolitan University

Caregiving in the modern era is challenging for even the most prepared adults. So, what happens when this burden falls on children?

As Japan's population ages, the number of children and young people responsible for caregiving is increasing. However, the impact of this on their health and daily lives remains not well understood.

To gain better insight, Professor Bing Niu and Dr. Ziyan Wang from Osaka Metropolitan University’s Graduate School of Economics conducted two rounds of surveys, one in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic and another in 2024 after the pandemic. The surveys targeted 1,581 young carers aged 15 to 19 across Japan to clarify how caregiving burdens affect the psychology and emotions of young carers.

The survey incorporated the Kessler 6-Item Psychological Distress Scale and the Positive and Negative Outcomes of Caring questionnaire as indicators to measure the degree of psychological stress and subjective responses, such as feelings and thoughts, toward caregiving. It then analyzed the actual state of the caregiving burden and its impact on carers' psychological and emotional well-being.

Results revealed that young carers with greater care responsibilities tend to experience higher stress levels, with approximately 20% of young carers in our surveys falling into the high-risk group. However, they also possesspositive emotions, such as a sense of accomplishment and pride. In particular, the 2024 survey revealed that both positive and negative emotions stemming from caregiving experience were more pronounced than in 2021.

“Both positive and negative emotions were strongly expressed in the 2024 survey, which suggests that even as the burden of care persists, societal understanding and support for young carers have grown, and they themselves have begun to embrace their roles more positively,” Dr. Wang stated. Professor Niu concluded, “It is suggested that while both positive and negative aspects exist in the caregiving experiences of young caregivers, it is crucial to develop support tailored to each individual's specific circumstances.”

The findings were published in Scientific Reports.

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About OMU

Established in Osaka as one of the largest public universities in Japan, Osaka Metropolitan University is committed to shaping the future of society through the “Convergence of Knowledge” and the promotion of world-class research. For more research news, visit https://www.omu.ac.jp/en/ and follow us on social media: X, Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn.

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Journal

Scientific Reports

DOI

10.1038/s41598-025-22652-5 

Method of Research

Survey

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Care burden and outcomes in young carers during and after the COVID‑19 pandemic: psychological distress and cognitive–emotional aspects

 

Can Canada’s health systems handle increased demand during FIFA World Cup?

Current health system already at, or above, capacity

Canadian Medical Association Journal

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Excitement is building for FIFA World Cup soccer games in Toronto and Vancouver in June and July, yet Canada’s overburdened health systems may buckle with any additional demand, cautions an editorial published in CMAJ (Canadian Medical Association Journal) https://www.cmaj.ca/lookup/doi/10.1503/cmaj.252094.

“Canada is increasingly vulnerable to events that may result in a surge in health care utilization, including climate emergencies, mass gathering events, infectious diseases outbreaks, and global defence escalations,” writes Dr. Catherine Varner, an emergency medicine physician in Toronto and Deputy Editor, CMAJ.  

World Cup organizers are planning for a range of scenarios with the help of local and provincial health and emergency authorities, but can they plan for increased volumes in health systems already stressed and over capacity with current patient loads?

Dr. Varner, an emergency physician who worked during Games 1 and 7 of the 2025 MLB World Series, has direct experience with how stretched health care capacity is in Toronto. She calls for urgent action on a national plan to bolster health systems to meet potential needs from large-scale events like the World Cup and others.

“A coherent, feasible, actionable, and national plan is urgently needed to increase hospital beds and train the required personnel such that quality of care can be maintained,” she writes.

This year’s flu season has placed exceptional burden on hospitals, patients, and health care providers, with emergency departments across Canada facing huge patient volumes and long wait times for care.

“Health care providers in Canada are accustomed to flexing and triaging acute care and public health resources,” Dr. Varner writes. “Being in a constant state of surge capacity is actually the norm. However, even when anticipated surges occur, bedside experiences and provincial quality metrics suggest that systems cannot absorb more load when they are already operating at or above capacity without compromising the quality and safety of patient care.”

A potential solution would be for hospitals near the World Cup sites in the two cities to increase staffing to cope with higher demand for health services, but Dr. Varner cautions that “increasing staff, even for the duration of these events, is likely not feasible since Canadian hospitals and public health systems already face health human resource challenges and budget shortfalls in these years following the COVID-19 pandemic, a problem that has been widely recognized in other important spheres of governance.”

Recent reports have identified health care system capacity and health care personnel as major weaknesses in Canadian sovereignty and defence, a priority area for the government under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Scenario planning for a large-scale war in Europe made it clear that Canada’s health care systems would struggle to function if health care personnel were sent overseas or wounded soldiers returned to Canada for care.

“With the recent commitment to increase defence spending in the 2025 federal budget, increasing acute care capacity should be prioritized as part of Canada’s emergency preparedness systems to support national defence and security purposes.”

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Journal

Canadian Medical Association Journal

DOI

10.1503/cmaj.252094 

Method of Research

Commentary/editorial

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Mass gathering events underscore serious vulnerabilities in health care capacity in Canada

Article Publication Date

19-Jan-2026