By Aritra Banerjee
As rising seas erode Africa’s coastlines and strain its maritime economies, experts at the Indo-Pacific Regional Dialogue (IPRD) 2025 turned their attention to the Great Blue Wall (GBW) — an ambitious African-led initiative that seeks to link ocean conservation with blue-economy growth.
Speaking virtually at the conference on 30 October, David Willima, a maritime researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, said the GBW could transform how Africa and the wider Indian Ocean region confront climate-linked security risks.
“Most of Africa’s coastal cities and island states — especially the big ones like Lagos, Abidjan, Dar-es-Salaam, Cape Town, Luanda, Alexandria — are in low-lying areas that are susceptible to flooding and inundation,” Willima noted. “When you look at Africa’s population and migration projections, a lot of these cities will each hold more than five million people by 2030. That translates to about 116 million Africans living in low-lying coastal areas — a huge number that will put enormous pressure on coastal resources.”
A Vision Born in Glasgow
Launched at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 26) in Glasgow in 2021, the Great Blue Wall is a Western Indian Ocean (WIO) initiative designed to create a connected chain of “seascapes” — large, community-managed marine and coastal conservation zones.
Backed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and regional partners such as the Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association (WIOMSA), the GBW sets out measurable goals:
Protect 30 percent of the WIO’s marine area by 2030. Restore two million hectares of mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reefs. Generate one million blue-economy jobs and sequester 100 million tonnes of CO₂ through ecosystem restoration. Embed local ownership by making the initiative youth-driven and women-inclusive.
Willima stressed that the project’s strength lies in scaling across borders rather than simply scaling up. “It’s about connecting local efforts into a regional mosaic,” he said.
Coastal Insecurity Meets Climate Fragility
The Western Indian Ocean belt is already experiencing the twin shocks of insecurity and environmental stress. Northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province — a frontline of an Islamist insurgency since 2017 — sits on the same coastline that hosts fragile ecosystems vital to local livelihoods. Elsewhere, Somalia’s piracy and illegal fishing crises, and resource theft in the Gulf of Guinea, illustrate how environmental and economic fragility feed maritime crime.
A 2017 study by WWF and partners valued the WIO’s ocean assets at USD 333.8 billion, with annual returns of around USD 21 billion from fisheries, tourism and carbon sequestration. Yet less than 8 percent of this marine expanse is protected. The WIO hosts 38 percent of the world’s coral reef species, many at risk from warming seas and pollution.
Mangroves — nature’s first defence against coastal erosion — are disappearing rapidly. A 2024 IUCN report warned that if current trends persist, the region’s mangroves could face functional extinction within five decades. The GBW, Willima argued, offers “a path to restore ecological resilience while anchoring youth in formal economic activity instead of the shadow economy.”
Strategic Resonance in the Indo-Pacific
While conceived for Africa’s eastern seaboard, the GBW resonates across the Indo-Pacific’s coastal corridors. Experts at IPRD 2025 observed that the initiative’s transboundary governance and community-centric approach could inform similar “seascape corridor” models from East Africa to Southeast Asia — advancing global “30 by 30” targets under the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.
For India and its maritime partners, the GBW presents a framework to link climate security with ocean stability. Its focus on inclusive growth and ecological balance parallels India’s own SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) vision and blue-economy initiatives under the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA). By supporting regional capacity building and marine science collaboration, India could help extend the GBW’s success eastwards into the Indo-Pacific arc.
Funding, Governance and Scale
Despite its promise, the GBW faces real-world constraints. Only around 7 percent of the WIO’s waters enjoy protection today, and many states lack capacity for monitoring or enforcement. Financing remains a critical bottleneck, though a 2023 concept note submitted to the Green Climate Fund seeks to mobilise resources for a “regenerative blue economy.” Governance is complex: the initiative spans ten jurisdictions — from Comoros and Kenya to Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Seychelles, Somalia, South Africa, Tanzania and France’s Réunion — each with distinct legal regimes and capacities.
Yet progress is evident. Pilot projects in the Tanga–Pemba Seascape (Tanzania) and the Quirimbas Seascape (Mozambique) are already showcasing how local communities can lead coastal restoration and eco-tourism without external dependence. The GBW Secretariat, based in Nairobi under IUCN’s regional office, has also begun mapping a ten-year investment plan to connect scientific, financial and policy actors across the region.
Why the Indo-Pacific Should Watch Closely
1. Shared Vulnerabilities – From Mombasa to Mumbai to Manila, coastal cities face common threats — sea-level rise, salinity intrusion, and marine ecosystem loss. GBW’s data and policy frameworks could serve as templates for wider regional use.
2. Blue-Economy Synergy – Africa’s experience with community-driven marine management offers lessons for Indo-Pacific states building sustainable fishery and renewable ocean industries.
3. Geostrategic Stability – By reducing resource conflict and enhancing livelihood security, the GBW contributes to maritime peace — a key pillar of the Indo-Pacific vision championed by India and like-minded partners.
A Blueprint, Not a Panacea
Analysts agree that the GBW is no quick fix but a strategic blueprint for “nature-positive” development. Its success will depend on funding continuity, data transparency and political coherence among member states. But if it achieves its targets, the Western Indian Ocean could become a living laboratory for sustainable maritime governance — and a test case for the rest of the Indo-Pacific.
“It’s an economic and ecological lifeline,” Willima said, “that can keep the ocean — and the people who depend on it — alive.”
For Africa and the Indo-Pacific alike, the Great Blue Wall may well represent the next frontier of climate diplomacy — where security and sustainability finally meet at sea.
Aritra Banerjee is a Contributing Editor, South Asia at Eurasia Review with a focus on Defence, Strategic Affairs, and Indo-Pacific geopolitics. He is also the co-author of The Indian Navy @75: Reminiscing the Voyage. Having spent his formative years in the United States before returning to India, he brings a global perspective combined with on-the-ground insight to his reporting. He holds a Master's in International Relations, Security & Strategy from O.P. Jindal Global University, a Bachelor's in Mass Media from the University of Mumbai, and Professional Education in Strategic Communications from King's College London (King's Institute for Applied Security Studies).
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