Heatwaves could put millions of European cattle at risk by mid-century
Within the next few decades, intensifying heatwaves could expose a significant share of Europe’s cattle to dangerous levels of heat stress. New research maps where and how millions of animals may be affected by mid-century.
The European cattle sector is deeply embedded in Europe’s culture, economy, and food systems. Around 1.3 million agricultural holdings rear more than 70 million cattle, making the EU one of the world’s most important dairy and beef producers. At the same time, cattle production is also the biggest emitter of greenhouse gasses and other pollutants such as nitrogen in the agricultural sector, creating tension between food production, farmer livelihoods, and ambitious EU climate goals.
Žiga Malek a researcher associated with the Novel Data Ecosystems for Sustainability (NODES) Research Group in the IIASA Advancing Systems Analysis Program and the Biotechnical Faculty of the University of Ljubljana, Slovenia, and Linda See, principal research scholar in the NODES group, set out to estimate to what extent European cattle could be impacted by heatwaves driven by climate change in the near future. They particularly focused on differences between cattle that graze outdoors and those kept indoors without access to pasture. This distinction matters because adaptation measures in systems where cattle have access to outdoor pastures are different to those for systems where they do not.
“Heatwaves already threaten cattle welfare, productivity and survival, while also disrupting grassland and feed production. Yet, despite these risks, spatially explicit assessments of how European cattle could be exposed to heatwaves in the near future, that also address the diversity of the European cattle producing types and regions were missing,” Malek explains.
The study reveals significant regional and system-level differences. Depending on future emission pathways, between 6.2 and 13.7 million cattle livestock units – representing 11 to 22% of today’s European cattle population – are projected to experience at least 15 additional heatwave days by around 2050.
Indoor systems, where cattle do not have access to outdoor grazing, emerged as particularly exposed. While 4.5 to 12% of grazing cattle are projected to face this level of increased heat exposure, the share rises sharply for cattle kept indoors without outdoor access, reaching 18 to 35%. The authors also found that regions already exposed to heat stress today could be hit hardest in the future.
“These are mostly southern European countries such as Italy, Spain, Greece, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria – many of which rely heavily on cattle farming for rural economies and traditional products like protected cheeses,” notes See.
According to the authors, the findings highlight how difficult it will be to meet economic, environmental, and animal welfare goals without ambitious, timely, and spatially targeted adaptation. Measures like planting shade trees on pastures, adding landscape features such as shelters, or upgrading barns with improved ventilation and cooling cost money and time, further emphasizing the urgency of taking action. This urgency is further emphasized by the fact that in some regions farmers are already abandoning cattle rearing, partly because heatwaves – often coinciding with drought – constrain feed production and intensify pressures on farmers.
The authors further emphasize that adaptation strategies must reflect Europe’s diverse climates and production systems.
“Measures in Mediterranean Europe need to be different than those in the Alps or the Atlantic part of the region,” says See.
At the same time, the results point to potential synergies: improving barns, planting shade trees and, in the most exposed, marginal regions, reducing cattle numbers could simultaneously enhance animal welfare, support climate mitigation, and strengthen farmer resilience.
“There is no one size fits all solution when it comes to the European cattle sector. While the necessary changes may be uncomfortable, particularly in regions with very intensive cattle rearing where some farmers might potentially be required to reduce herd size or shift production, acting early can ease the transition to a more climate resilient and environmentally friendly European cattle sector,” Malek concludes.
Reference
Malek, Z. & See, L. (2026). Future heatwave exposure of the European cattle sector. npj Sustainable Agriculture DOI: 10.1038/s44264-025-00113-w
About IIASA:
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an international scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, economic, technological, and social change that we face in the twenty-first century. Our findings provide valuable options to policymakers to shape the future of our changing world. IIASA is independent and funded by prestigious research funding agencies in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. www.iiasa.ac.at
Journal
npj Sustainable Agriculture
Article Title
Future heatwave exposure of the European cattle sector
Article Publication Date
29-Jan-2026
Heatwaves are reshaping the behavior of Western Australia's western ringtail possum
Extreme heat is forcing Western Australia’s critically endangered western ringtail possum (Ngwayir) to cut back on vital activity and feeding, new research shows.
The study, a collaboration between the Western Australia Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions (DBCA), Murdoch University, The University of Western Australia and Biota Environmental Sciences, examined how extreme but non‑lethal heat affects ringtail possum behaviour — an area poorly understood by scientists.
During the summer of 2024–25, which included several heatwaves, the research team monitored ten western ringtail possums living in woodlands near Perth. Each animal wore a lightweight collar fitted with motion sensors to record activity levels.
The study found that on very hot days (above 40°C), nocturnal activity declined by up to 43% in males and 31% in females, compared with cooler days (around 27°C).
“What really stood out was that the biggest drop in activity happened early in the evening, when western ringtail possums usually do most of their feeding,” said Murdoch University PhD candidate and zoologist Roy Teale.
“That’s concerning, because it suggests they’re missing critical foraging opportunities on the hottest days, which can lead to weight loss and lower energy levels.”
Mr Teale said those changes could potentially translate to lower rates of reproduction and survivability.
“During one of the heatwaves, we lost a collared possum that likely died from heat stress, and another was found showing clear signs of overheating such as panting, shaking and licking its paws,” he said.
“It highlights just how vulnerable this species is when temperatures climb.”
The Western Ringtail Possum is listed as critically endangered by the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act, and it was recently believed that the species had declined by more than 80% in ten years to an estimated population size of around 3,400 mature individuals.
However, last year, Mr Teale led one of the largest and most rigorous wildlife surveys ever done for the species, surveying 41 sites over 1,200km of transects across the Southern Swan Coastal Plain, Southern Forests and South Coast.
Researchers estimate they counted about 21,800 possums in total, nearly seven times higher than previous estimates.
“One encouraging finding from my earlier research was that western ringtail possum numbers are far higher than we previously believed,” Mr Teale said.
“But higher numbers don’t mean the species is safe. With climate change driving more frequent and intense heatwaves, our latest findings show new risks emerging that could still threaten the species’ long‑term survival.”
Lead author on the study and DBCA research scientist Harry Moore, recommended that future climate vulnerability assessments needed to move beyond counting deaths.
“Our results show that it’s not enough to look at whether animals survive heatwaves — we also need to understand what heat is costing them,” he said.
“Protecting cooling habitat like large trees, canopy cover and natural hollows, and factoring behavioural stress into climate‑risk planning, will be critical as extreme heat becomes more frequent.”
The paper, Sublethal effects of extreme heat on a critically endangered marsupial, is available in the journal Pacific Conservation Biology.
Method of Research
Observational study
Subject of Research
Animals
Article Title
Sublethal effects of extreme heat on a critically endangered marsupial
Article Publication Date
27-Jan-2026
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