Friday, January 03, 2020

#BIOPHAGE WORLD 
THE TRIUMPH OF SOVIET SCIENCE 
ABANDONED BY THE WEST 

CHECK OUT THE INSIDE OF THIS ART SCIENCE BOOK


Life in Our #Phage World 

Hardcover – Dec 1 2014

by Forest Rohwer (Author), Merry Youle (Author), Heather Maughan (Author


We share the Earth with more than 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 phages. 

Everywhere they thrive, from well-fed guts to near-boiling acidic springs, from cryoconite holes to endolithic fissures. They travel from one microbial host to the next as virions, their genetic weapons packaged inside a protective protein shell. If you could lay all of these nanoscopic phage virions side-by-side, the line-up would stretch over 42 million light years. 

Through their daily shenanigans they kill or collaborate with their microbial hosts to spur microbial evolution and maintain ecosystem functioning. We have learned much about them since their discovery by Frederick Twort a century ago. 

They also taught us that DNA, not protein, is the hereditary material, unraveled the triplet genetic code, and offered their enzymes as indispensible tools for the molecular biology revolution. More contributions will be forthcoming since the vast majority of phages await discovery. 

Phage genomes harbor the world's largest cache of unexplored genetic diversity, and we now have the equipment needed to go prospecting. Although there are field guides to birds, insects, wild flowers, even Bacteria, there was no such handbook to guide the phage explorer. 

Forest Rohwer decided to correct this oversight, for novice and expert alike, and thus was born Life in Our Phage World. A diverse collection of 30 phages are featured. Each phage is characterized by its distinctive traits, including details about its genome, habitat, lifestyle, global range, and close relatives. 

The beauty of its intricate virion is captured in a pen-and-ink portrait by artist Benjamin Darby. Each phage also stars in a carefully researched action story relating how that phage encounters, exploits, kills, or otherwise manipulates its host. These behaviors are imaginatively illustrated by fine artist Leah L. Pantea. 

Eight researchers that work closely with phages also relate their experiences as inhabitants of the phage world. Rohwer has years of first-hand experience with the phage multitudes in ecosystems ranging from coral reefs to the human lung to arctic waters. He pioneered the key metagenomic methods now widely used to catalog and characterize Earth's microbial and viral life. Despite research advances, most people, many scientists included, remain unaware of the ongoing drama in our phage world. In anticipation of 2015, the centennial of phage discovery, Forest assembled a cadre of writers, artists, scientists, and a cartographer and set them to work. The result? This alluring field guide-a feast for the imagination and a celebration of phage diversity.

REVIEWS

John R. Dale
5.0 out of 5 stars 

Readable and artistic book on a microbiological subject.
Reviewed in Canada on August 2, 2015
Format: Hardcover
Beautifully designed book. Science and Art well linked and represented in a collectors book for the bookshelf. Also actually really informative and full of humour as it weaves tales of the phage kingdom and they become alive (maybe? !) The diagrams are creatively done and add to the reading pleasure. All in all well worth the pride as a hardcover. I am actually reading it through rather than treating it as a reference book.


DESNUES Christelle
5.0 out of 5 stars A must read book!
Reviewed in France on January 23, 2015
Format: Hardcover
This book is a real "chef d'oeuvre"! It both stimulates your eyes AND your mind! I highly recommend "Life in Our Phage World" for students, scientists or just for curious people...
As you open the first pages, you truly explore a new dimensional world....the wonderful world of phages! So don't wait...read it!
Christelle Desnues PhD, CNRS, France


jaultpat
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent 
Reviewed in France on May 8, 2016
Format: Hardcover
Excellent ouvrage de référence sur la biologie des phages, une synthèse actuelle de toute la littérature sur le sujet. Indispensable.



Mark O. Martin
5.0 out of 5 stars 
At the intersection of virology, art, and fine writing.
Reviewed in the United States on January 31, 2015
Format: Hardcover

I have to tell you: I adore this book, and for a number of important reasons. First, it is an accessible introduction and reminder of how central viruses are to the biosphere, with a unique and engaging perspective. With all the talk about the "microbiome" in the news, the more numerous and just as important "virobiome" does not get as much attention or PR. We tend to reflexively think of viruses as "bad," when in fact viruses help keep ecological systems in balance (and that may very well include issues of human health). Bacteriophages, bacterial viruses, are not only fascinating as a model system, genetic tool, and driver of ecological balance....but beautiful to behold.

This brings me to something special about this fine book, by authors possessing expertise, writing chops, and enthusiasm (as well as quirky humor): the artwork. I am used to "scientific publications" being somewhat dry and technical. Not so with this publication. This is a beautiful as well as informative tome. If you have any interest in the intersection of art and biology, this book is simply a "must have."

Let me say something really important to finish up this review: the Amazon system states that this book is "temporarily out of stock," and implies it will take some time to receive. I ordered my copy early January, and received it in less than a week. I have no explanation for the verbiage. If you order this lovely book, you will get it quickly. It's a great book, and sits with pride on my office bookshelf.


HARDCOVER ONLY $109.46 CDN 
I SAID CHECK IT OUT I DID NOT SAY BUY IT 

THIS BOOK IS NOT ILLUSTRATED AND IS MUCH CHEAPER ONLY $29 CDN 

PB KINDLE 

I CAME ACROSS ANNA KUCHMENT WRITING SCIENCE COLUMNS ON FRACKING FOR HER LOCAL DALLAS PAPER AND SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN I POSTED THEM HERE. THEN I FOUND OUT SHE WROTE 

A MUCH NEEDED HISTORY OF PHAGE SCIENCE. 


http://tinyurl.com/vkaupz8

Before the arrival of penicillin in the 1940s, phage therapy was one of the few weapons doctors had against bacterial infections. It saved the life of Hollywood legend Tom Mix before being abandoned by Western science. Now, researchers and physicians are rediscovering the treatment, which pits phage viruses against their natural bacterial hosts, as a potential weapon against antibiotic-resistant infections.
The Forgotten Cure traces the story of phages from Paris, where they were discovered in 1917; to Tbilisi, Georgia, where one of phage therapy’s earliest proponents died at the hands of Stalin; to the Nobel podium, where prominent scientists have been recognized for breakthroughs stemming from phage research. Today, a crop of biotech startups and dedicated physicians is racing to win regulatory approval for phage therapy before superbugs exhaust the last drug in the medical arsenal. Will they clear the hurdles in time? 

From the Back Cover

“Bacteriophages have the potential to stop many if not most life threatening, drug resistant bacterial infections.  The Forgotten Cure is a non-stop, cover to cover read.”
James D. Watson, Nobel Laureate
“A lively tale of killer viruses, superbugs and a magical cure that has all the twists of a cold-war spy novel.” – George Hackett, Newsweek magazine
 “A marvelous, jargon-free historical account of the genesis, the ups-and-downs, and the current renaissance of phage therapy. The Forgotten Cure ranks at the level of Judson’s Eighth Day of Creation.”
Sankar Adhya
National Institutes of Health
The Forgotten Cure: How a Long Lost Treatment Can Save Lives in the 21st Century


Top international reviews



NurseyC
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent, a surprisingly absorbing read!
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 31, 2013
Verified Purchase
I have just started and near finished this book over the last two days, and have thus far found the stories and histories found here to be utterly captivating. I had wanted to buy the print edition rather than the Kindle editions but the ability to electronically keep notes and comments always woo's me! Perhaps I shall purchase the print edition a little later as I will enjoy having this on my bookshelf. Bravo to the author for bringing the subject quite alive for us science enthusiasts :)




JJ
5.0 out of 5 stars Very good Book
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on January 13, 2013
Verified Purchase
A Very good book for getting an overview of the history of phages and the current developments in this field. Easily readable and short.



Gert Bo Thorgersen
5.0 out of 5 stars Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
Reviewed in the United States on September 1, 2013
Verified Purchase

These wise words was written by George Santayana, back in the year 1905, and are very parallel to the story we read in this book, that is concerning the rediscovering of the Phage Therapy.

To me the book was extremely interesting to read, but to most people it would help much if there inside the book, or on the front side, were 1 or 2 pictures of Phages, because the Phages are so strange looking, being extremely different to what we are used in seeing. Actual the Phages mostly are looking like some of the robots we have seen in films, in cartoons, or on the front covers to the novel by H. G. Wells: "War of the Worlds". But as the Phages are around 40 times smaller than the bacteria's which they attacks (or rarely, working together with), then a picture number 2 showing a Phage positioned, and working, on a bacteria, which it has attacked, would help furthermore. Of course we nowadays, by going to the Internet, can find pictures showing the Phages, but not everybody is using PCs. And furthermore, without doubt, more persons would be interested in reading this book, and thereby learning more about these strange Phages, when by browsing around in the book, seeing drawings of the Phages.

The book is good in telling the historical background, concerning the discovery of the Phage, by d'Herelle. And as we again and again are going to the institute in Georgian, where Eliava, with connecting to d'Herelle, started the work on the Phage Therapy, we then read about the actual Russian history then passing by, after the Russian revolution in 1917. And learn that Eliava was executed by Stalin or Beria. But even though I'm from Denmark, and thereby not from Russia, I must point out that we are missing 2 important points that without doubt have connections to Stalins horrifying killing of many people. In the book, as in nearly all of the historical books, we are not told that actual, after The Revolution in 1917, when the First World War was over, Russia in 1918 was invaded, from all sides, by USA, England, France, and Germany, and the war lasted until 1923. And furthermore before The Revolution, under the Tsar, a brother to Stalin had been executed. So without doubt these cases were some of the reason to the cruelty of Stalin. But in any case Lenin had warned against Stalin, that was, not to let him be the following leader.

In the book there are many interesting cases, both concerning patients and concerning the discoveries, and the works, done by the science persons. For example we on the side 1, are learning how the first great American screen idol, Tom Mix, back in the year 1931, when he developed a stomachache and thereby nearly having no chance in surviving, (precisely the same happened to me, back in the year 1963, when I was 16 years old, and I was close to dying). Opposite to all odds Tom Mix was cured, as his doctor was having more knowledge than normal for the doctors, and thereby knew a person to contact for with help from him trying to cure in another way, by the Phage Therapy, when there was no chance when using the normal known methods.

But we already, on the side ix, in the book, are reading about a case of Fred Bledsoe, who in 2002, stepped on a rusty nail, which resulted in so bad infection that the doctor advised him to have his foot amputated. But by an accident, a friend to him, in TV saw the episode "Silent Killers", in the CBS news program "48 hours", and thereby learned about the world's oldest institute concerning Phage, laying in Tbilisi in Georgia. And he ended traveling to this strange place, and he then was cured. And the book finish with on the side 123 starting a parallel case, actual about Laura Robert, who none of the doctors expected to be living past the end of 2005. And after she also, in TV, by an accident saw the program "48 hours", then went to Georgia and was totally cured.

And in the history concerning the discovery of the Phage, we on the side 83 starts reading about how the English scientist, M. E. Hankin, in 1896, when living in India, set out to discover why the people could bath in Ganges river without getting sick. When epidemics of Cholera swept through central India, and when people were using the river for anything besides bath, for cloth washing, and even dumping partly burnt corpses into the Ganges. And by research he could conclude that the water was containing an antiseptic which acted on the Cholera germ.

But it was Felix d'Herelle who discovered the Phage, by two cases, and then clearly being able to talk about it, and making more research. As we learn on the side 7, when he first during research, discovered and was wondering why some of his bacterial cultures had died. But It was first when he again in 1916, during the war, when he was analyzing stool from soldier, discovered his taches verges again, that he started working on this strange discovery. And we read about the fighting between d'Herelle and his chief and other persons about this Phage, among other, whether the Phages are living organism or not, or if it's something made by the bacteria's or not. But especially it's interesting to learn how little doctor education d'Herelle was getting, but mostly was being educated buy himself.

But through the book we are getting many parallel cases telling how persons, during the last 20 years, by accidents, are rediscovered, the Phage Therapy, and then, especially since the year 2000, have started working in gropes for making firms working with the Phage Therapy. That is especially to work on the discovering on the actual Phages to the actual sickness, as there is thought to be around 100,000 different Phages, and each Phage only is working on one special bacteria.

A highly interesting book concerning Phage Therapy which we without doubt, in the future, will be hearing much more about.



Legendkhan
3.0 out of 5 stars An interesting story, but...
Reviewed in the United States on March 21, 2017
Verified Purchase
While the book describes an important narrative in the potential for phage therapy, I feel that it falls short of truly captivating the reader in the history of the bacteriophage, which is mostly due to poor editing etiquette (as in referencing to one individual by 2 or 3 different names, which can be quite confusing when someone's last name is used 5 times in a row and then their first name is used outside of speech). I would have also liked to see more of an explanation/ in-depth look at current phage technologies and practices.


spigdog
5.0 out of 5 stars I'm very glad I read this book.
Reviewed in the United States on August 5, 2012
Verified Purchase
This book describes the history of "phage" therapy, the use of bacteriophages (a type of virus) to treat bacterial infections. While antibiotics are usually effective, phages are an alternative treatment that have the advantage of having much smaller side effects since each type of phage targets very specific bacteria, unlike antibiotics. On the other hand, this makes phages more difficult to use, since one needs to find the right type of phage (out of thousands and thousands of types) to treat your disease.

The book covers phage therapy starting from their discovery in the early 1900's to today, where several companies have been trying to commercialize the technology. It's a fascinating journey, and I couldn't help thinking that phage therapy would be much more common in the U.S. if only phages didn't occur naturally, which makes it hard for drug companies to charge a lot of money for them. In any case, it makes me feel a little safer in this age of antibiotic-resistant supergerms to know there are other treatments out there (even if apparently not that many U.S. doctors do), and I thank Ms. Kuchment for her interesting and educational account.



The Perfect Predator: A Scientist's Race to Save Her Husband from a Deadly Superbug: A Memoir Hardcover – Feb 26 2019

Review

About the Author(s)

---30---

SEE  

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=PHAGES


SNOWFLAKES

 Anti-Vaxxers Are Asking People To Stop Calling Them Anti-Vaxxers Because It's "Highly Offensive"

A group of anti-vaxxers is asking the media to stop referring to them as anti-vaxxers (even though that's literally what they are), and people have been less than enthusiastic in accepting their suggested replacement.
This week, the anti-vaxxer group Crazymothers (no, we're not even remotely kidding) posted the request to their Twitter and Instagram pages. 
"Dear Media," the open letter read. "Please retire the use of the term 'Anti-vaxxer.' It is derogatory, inflammatory, and marginalizes both women and their experiences. It is dismissively simplistic, highly offensive and largely false. We politely request that you refer to us as the Vaccine Risk Aware."
People responding to the group were quick to point out that if they were really aware of the risk of any adverse effects of vaccines, which are mainly minorextremely rare and do not include autism (despite what you may read on that bastion of scientific information [squints] crazymothers.info). Especially when you weigh it up against the risks associated with not getting your child vaccinated, which include your child getting a potentially deadly disease and risking the health of others around them.
An outbreak of measles in the Democratic Republic of Congo, for instance, has seen 233,337 cases of measles and 4,723 deaths over the past year, with children under the age of five accounting for almost 90 percent of those deaths.
So when Crazymothers asked people to call them "risk aware", people had quite a few suggestions of their own.
As well as this and the standard variation of the "OK boomer" response...
... people tried giving them the facts as well (though sometimes admittedly quite aggressively).
As you'd expect, this hasn't worked. In a follow-up post, the anti-vaxx group dismissed HuffPost coverage of their request as: "Oh snap, I hit a nerve". 
In fact, research has shown that giving facts about the safety of vaccines to anti-vaxxers is (genuinely) as effective in changing their minds as giving them an unrelated statement about bird feeding (used as the control), Science Alert reports.
However, if you still insist on changing minds to save lives, the same 2017 study showed that there is a more effective way, which is to show them photographs of the effects of vaccine-preventable diseases, and a personal account from a mother whose child almost died from measles. Anti-vaxxers showed this was more likely to make think about vaccines in a more positive light afterwards. Another study published earlier this year showed that people who are hesitant about vaccines were more likely to be convinced of their benefits after meeting someone who has suffered from a vaccine-preventable disease.

IFLScience logo
Air pollution exposure may make our bones become weaker
HEALTH 3 January 2020  By Adam Vaughan

child cooking indoors


Air pollution can come from cooking indoors using solid biomass fuels

Towfiqu Photography/Getty Images

The number of health effects linked to air pollution keeps growing. We already know dirty air is associated with problems in the lungs, heartuterus and eyes and could potentially affect mental health – and now weaker bones can be added to the list.
Researchers took readings of levels of PM2.5, a fine particulate form of pollution, at 23 sites outside Hyderabad in India. Then they worked with more than 3700 people – with an average age of 35.7 – in nearby villages to explore whether exposure to the air pollution was correlated with changes in the bone mineral content of their hips and spines, a measure of bone strength used to diagnose osteoporosis.
“What we see overall is a quite consistent pattern of lower bone mineral content with increasing levels of air pollution,” says Cathryn Tonne at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health.
People in the area were exposed to average PM2.5 annual levels of 32.8 micrograms per cubic metre. This is three times higher than the safe limit recognised by the World Health Organization. After adjusting for other possible factors – including wealth – Tonne and colleagues found every extra 3 micrograms per cubic metre of PM2.5 was associated with an average reduction in bone mineral density for both men and women of 0.011 grams per square centimetre in the spine, and 0.004 g/cm2 in the hip. Black carbon, a subset of PM2.5, was also associated with lower bone mass.

Indoor pollution

More than half of the people in the study live in homes where food is cooked using solid biomass fuels, which release the pollutants. But no link to bone mass was found for those who used biomass as their main cooking fuel, and would have been exposed to indoor air pollution from it. This suggests it is the general exposure to air pollution in the ambient air that is responsible for the link.
Research linking air pollution and bone mass is still in its infancy, and most has focused on older people in richer countries. Tonne says previous studies’ findings have been inconclusive, though some have also found associations, such as a 2017 study of older men in Boston.
“The scientific literature on air pollution and bone health is very scarce,” says Tuan Nguyen at the Garvan Institute of Medical Research in Australia. For that reason, he says the new study is important. “It provides a clear and growing evidence that air pollution adverse affect bone health in young adults.”
The fact that the researchers looked at both indoor and outdoor pollution exposure, and studied a large number of people, gives weight to the research, says Frank Kelly at King’s College London. “It’s yet another paper linking exposure to air pollution with a health effect,” he says.

Public health burden

The study suggests the average impact on bone mass is relatively small for individuals, says Cecilie Dahl at the University of Oslo. “It is difficult to say how serious the health impact is on bone strength,” she says. But she adds that the decreases in bone mass can stack up to a significant public health burden at a population level.
To give an idea of how that can play out, Diddier Prada at Harvard University, one of the team behind the Boston study, says that in the US, PM2.5 pollution could be attributed to more than 86,000 osteoporosis-related bone fractures a year. Most people also achieve peak bone mass between 20 and 30 years old, so a deficit in that peak due to air pollution also increases their risk of osteoporosis when they are older.
Possible candidates for how air pollution affects bone mass include inflammation and an imbalance in the body between free radicals and antioxidants. Tonne says more research is still needed on the link between air pollution and bone health, in the shape of bigger studies done over time. “It’s a body of literature that will really give us a good idea of what’s going on, not just one study,” she says.
Journal reference: JAMA Network OpenDOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.18504
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2228960-air-pollution-exposure-may-make-our-bones-become-weaker/#ixzz6A0uAGu00



Earliest roasted root vegetables found in 170,000-year-old cave dirt


2 January 2020

roast vegetables

Humans have been eating roasted vegetables for a very long time

GMVozd/Getty Images

Charred fragments found in 170,000-year-old ashes in a cave in southern Africa are the earliest roasted root vegetables yet found. The finding suggest the real “paleo diet” included lots of roasted vegetables rich in carbohydrates, similar to modern potatoes.
“I think people were eating a very balanced diet, a combination of carbohydrates and proteins,” says team leader Lyn Wadley of the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa.
In 2016, her team found dozens of bits of charcoal in an ash layer in the Border cave in South Africa. This ash layer is what is left from the fires of early people.
By studying the charred remains of hundreds of modern plants under a microscope over the following years, the team were finally able to identify the charcoal fragments as being the rhizomes – subterranean stems – of a plant from the genus Hypoxis.
Seeds of root vegetables and other plants have found at an 800,000-year-old site in Israel where early humans lived, but Wadley’s find is the earliest clear evidence of roasting.
Read more: Ancient leftovers show the real Paleo diet was a veggie feast
The rhizomes of Hypoxis plants can be as rich in carbohydrates as potatoes, although they taste more like a yam, says Wadley. They are still eaten today, though they have become rare due to overexploitation.
The abundance of the rhizome fragments suggests that roasted root vegetables were a common part of the diet, contrary to the popular notion that early humans ate a lot of meat. Most versions of the paleo diet, which is supposedly based on what our ancestors’ ate, advise people to avoid potatoes as well as grains.

New Scientist Default Image

Hypoxis angustifolia

Dr. Lyn Wadley

“I’m afraid the paleo diet is really a misnomer,” says Wadley.
Our ideas about what early people ate may be skewed by the fact that plant remains are less likely to survive than butchered animal bones – and that researchers seldom look for them. “Many archaeologists are not interested in botanical remains,” says Wadley.
While one species of Hypoxis is commonly called the African potato (Hypoxis hemerocallidea), the yellow rhizomes of this plant are bitter, and it is used for medical purposes rather than as food. The Border cave people were probably eating a species with rhizomes with white flesh, such as Hypoxis angustifoli, which is far more palatable.
Journal reference: ScienceDOI: 10.1126/science.aaz5926


What can Oil producers learn from a sunset Coal industry?


Although fossil fuels are being replaced by clean energy they are not going away. Even coal is not in decline, it’s just peaked globally: declining in mature economies, still rising in developing ones. Henning Gloystein at the Eurasia Group, writing for the Atlantic Council, asks to what extent oil will follow coal. Oil consumption is still growing – 1% this year – though at a much slower rate than before. As with coal, a re-focus onto cleaner grades like “sweet” oil will be needed, particularly for transport. Their use in petrochemicals (e.g., household chemicals, textiles, and consumer goods) shows no sign of change. Though producers and investors are worried about oil’s long term prospects, money is still being spent on small and short-cycle US shale, or Europe’s North Sea where markets are fully developed. Overall, Gloystein says the evidence points to the sector becoming more specialised to make the most of oil’s future.
Coal has been the main fuel of industrialisation over the past century and a half. To this day, it remains a key feedstock for power generation (thermal coal) and in making steel (coking coal).
Yet demand for coal appears to be peaking, with seaborne coal trade volumes plateauing at just over 1.2 billion tonnes.
While coking coal remains indispensable for steel, thermal coal is seeing competition from cleaner fuels. Carbon Brief published a study in November showing that worldwide electricity generated from coal dropped by 3 percent, or 300 terawatt hours, this year. While shipping data still showed a slight increase in trade, it seems clear growth has topped out.

Regional differences in peak coal demand: America & Europe

Global coal use may be peaking, but there are big regional differences. In the United States, thermal coal has been steadily pushed out by cheap shale gas and renewables. As a result, thermal coal consumption has been declining for half a decade.
In Europe, coal also looks like it is in terminal decline. Shipped imports into former coal powerhouses Britain and Germany have collapsed over the past five years amid rising renewable and natural gas capacity while electricity consumption peaked in the early 2000s in both Britain and Germany, and has steadily declined since. Germany still burns a fair bit of domestic lignite to generate electricity, but Britain today uses barely any coal for power generation.

Asian coal use still strong

Asia is different. Shipped thermal coal imports by the top four consumers—China, Japan, India and South Korea—have remained strong at record levels above 400 million metric tons. While consumption is falling in traditional import powerhouses Japan and South Korea for the same reasons as it is in Europe, consumption is still rising in key emerging economies like China and India. While both have pledged to combat pollution and climate change, they still rely heavily on coal-fired power. In both countries, coal also receives political support as authorities fear a move away from coal would trigger rising unemployment from mining closures.
Many emerging economies across Asia—including IndonesiaVietnam, and India—also so far prefer domestic coal to imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), as governments resist spending big to develop LNG’s costly infrastructure, which will only raise the country’s import bill.
Still, with consumption declining in Japan and South Korea but growing in China and India, Asia’s thermal coal demand is creeping up. Considering North America and Europe’s decline, it is likely the world has reached peak thermal coal demand.

What can Oil learn from peak Coal?

Peak coal demand has not gone unnoticed. Also fearing a peak in demand and potentially stranded assets, oil producers are putting off spending on future output. Meanwhile, investors are cutting exposure to petroleum assets to comply with sustainability targets and shareholder pressure.
Yet peak oil demand has yet to happen. Consumption this year rose by 1 percent and will for the first time average above 100 million barrels per day. While growth is slowing, consumption will likely increase for years to come.

“Peak” does not mean “decline”

When it eventually peaks, a look at coal gives a glimpse of what could happen in other sectors. Peak demand does not mean consumption will fall off a cliff—coal demand has so far plateaued at or near records, with pockets of growth still around.
Serving those pockets will remain a profitable business for miners that produce the sought-after coal. The most modern coal-fired power stations—euphemistically named “ultra-supercritical” and mostly under construction in Asia—use different coal than the ageing coal-slingers. This will favour different coal exporters. For instance, high quality thermal coal from Australia is better suited to meet demand from new power stations than coal from Indonesia, which tends to be of lower quality.

Investment re-focus

And while many European and American banks now shun coal, credit remains available as investors, including from Japan, where most “ultra-supercritical” turbines are made, still lend to projects they perceive as relatively clean.
Similar trends may be emerging in oil. Many investors prefer small and short-cycle oil assets like US shale or projects in fully developed markets like Europe’s North Sea to risky, costly and long-cycle new production like Brazil’s deepwater fields.

“Sweeter” grade oil

Like coal, the oil industry will see a shift in demand for certain crude grades even as overall consumption growth stalls, plateaus, or peaks. In shipping, this is already happening as a sulfur cap from January 2020 in marine fuels has pushed up demand for niche crude grades that are medium and sweet in quality. Tightening environmental regulation will soon hit gasoline and diesel consumption from cars, albeit at high levels.
However, demand for oil from other sectors like petrochemicals (e.g., household chemicals, textiles, and consumer goods) will still grow for years. This will trigger another change in demand away from heavy/sour grades commonly used for transportation to lighter/sweeter types used more by the chemical industry. For specialised producers and investors, such an outlook offers opportunity even amid a peak in overall consumption.
***
Henning Gloystein is director, global energy & natural resources at the Eurasia Group