Back to the future of climate

ETH ZURICH

Research News

IMAGE: ETH RESEARCHERS TRYING TO FIND SIDERITES NEAR LOS ANGELES (CA). view more 

CREDIT: JOEP VAN DIJK / ETH ZURICH

Between 57 and 55 million years ago, the geological epoch known as the Paleocene ended and gave way to the Eocene. At that time, the atmosphere was essentially flooded by the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, with concentration levels reaching 1,400 ppm to 4,000 ppm. So it's not hard to imagine that temperatures on Earth must have resembled those of a sauna. It was hot and humid, and the ice on the polar caps had completely disappeared.

The climate in that era provides researchers with an indication as to how today's climate might develop. While pre-?industrial levels of atmospheric CO2 stood at 280 ppm, today's measure 412 ppm. Climate scientists believe that CO2 emissions generated by human activity could drive this figure up to 1,000 ppm by the end of the century.

Using tiny siderite minerals in soil samples taken from former swamps, a group of researchers from ETH Zurich, Pennsylvania State University and CASP in Cambridge (UK) reconstructed the climate that prevailed at the end of the Paleocene and in the early Eocene. Their study has just been published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The siderite minerals formed in an oxygen-free soil environment that developed under dense vegetation in swamps, which were abundant along the hot and humid coastlines in the Paleocene and Eocene.

To reconstruct the climatic conditions from the equator to the polar regions, the researchers studied siderites from 13 different sites. These were all located in the northern hemisphere, covering all geographical latitudes from the tropics to the Arctic.

Prevailing humidity

"Our reconstruction of the climate based on the siderite samples shows that a hot atmosphere also comes with high levels of moisture," says lead author Joep van Dijk, who completed his doctorate in ETH Professor Stefano Bernasconi's group at the Geological Institute from 2015 to 2018.

Accordingly, between 57 and 55 million years ago, the mean annual air temperature at the equator where Colombia lies today was around 41 °C. In Arctic Siberia, the average summer temperature was 23 °C.

Using their siderite "hygrometer", the researchers also demonstrated that the global moisture content in the atmosphere, or the specific humidity, was much higher in the Paleocene and Eocene eras than it is today. In addition, water vapour remained in the air for longer because specific humidity increased at a greater rate than evaporation and precipitation. However, the increase in specific humidity was not the same everywhere.

Since they had access to siderite from all latitudes, the researchers were also able to study the spatial pattern of the specific humidity. They found that the tropics and higher latitudes would have had very high humidity levels.

The researchers attribute this phenomenon to water vapour that was transported to these zones from the subtropics. Specific humidity rose the least in the subtropics. While evaporation increased, precipitation decreased. This resulted in a higher level of atmospheric water vapour, which ultimately reached the poles and the equator. And the atmospheric vapour carried heat along with it.

Climate scientists still observe the flow of water vapour and heat from the subtropics to the tropics today. "Latent heat transport was likely to have been even greater during the Eocene," van Dijk says. "And the increase in the transport of heat to high latitudes may well have been conducive to the intensification of warming in the polar regions," he adds.

Not enough time to adapt

These new findings suggest that today's global warming goes hand in hand with increased transport of moisture, and by extension heat, in the atmosphere. "Atmospheric moisture transport is a key process that reinforces warming of the polar regions," van Dijk explains.

 "Although the CO2 content in the atmosphere was much higher back then than it is today, the increase in these values took place over millions of years," he points out. "Things are different today. Since industrialisation began, humans have more than doubled the level of atmospheric CO2 over a period of just 200 years," he explains. In the past, animals and plants had much more time to adapt to the changing climatic conditions. "They simply can't keep up with today's rapid development," van Dijk says.

Strenuous search for siderite crystals

Finding the siderites was not easy. For one thing, the minerals are tiny, plus they occur solely in fossil swamps, which today are often found only several kilometres below the Earth's surface. This made it difficult or even impossible for the researchers to dig up siderites themselves. "We made several expeditions to sites where we believed siderites might occur but we found them at only one of those locations," van Dijk says.

Fortunately, one of the study's co-authors - Tim White, an American from Pennsylvania State University - owns the world's largest collection of siderite.

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Precaution: Lessons from COVID-19

Which is more important in the initial phase of a pandemic: taking precautionary actions or responding to its severity? That is the question that researchers from SUTD set out to address in an article published in BioEssays.

SINGAPORE UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY AND DESIGN

Research News

 

Which is more important in the initial phase of a pandemic: taking precautionary actions or responding to its severity? That is the question that researchers from the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) set out to address in an article published in BioEssays.

The authors explored and reported the various strategies taken by the United States of America, European group of nations (comprising nations in the European Union, the Schengen area and the United Kingdom), People's Republic of China, Japan and South Korea. By looking at how the number of new cases changed with the adoption or relaxing of strategies, the data collated suggest that the following three strategies should have been considered for implementation during the COVID-19 pandemic: (1) controlled movement by implementing some form of coordinated social distancing, stay-at-home order or extreme lockdown; (2) early and sustained implementation of containment through internal and external border controls; and (3) efficient and early testing to identify symptomatic and asymptomatic transmitters.

These are not new strategies, but were learnt from previous pandemics. However, at a time when these strategies should have been implemented in some form as a precaution to contain COVID-19 in the early days, many countries chose to "wait".

The article explained how a collective strategy is needed, not just country-wide, but globally. If the effort to contain COVID-19 is not implemented in unison, a community that opens up out of phase to the others might see new infections. The researchers observed that incoherent strategy allows waves in each territory to superposition and form a sustain wave for the virus to ride on as it hops from territory to territory, country to country, continent to continent. In particular, because these known strategies were not adopted early with sustained implementation, the US continues to account for a fifth of the world's total COVID-19 cases and is facing the start of a third wave. Another example cited was the post-summer resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Europe when measures were significantly relaxed.

"As the world moves forward and prepares itself for future pandemics of such scale, the lessons learnt from COVID-19 should be part of every country's pandemic response. When another virus of such protean nature hits us again, we will not be caught off-guard by successive wavelets constructively interfering to give a sustained wave," said Joel Lai, the lead author of the study from SUTD.

"This article identifies the effectiveness of various strategies adopted by the governments of key hotspots for COVID-19. We noticed that the strategies were not new, yet, somehow, they were not implemented as swiftly and with authority as expected. These were effective in the past, proven to be effective to tackle COVID-19 and will continue to be effective for future pandemics," Lai added.

COVID-19 has significantly changed the way of life for everyone. In the initial response to the growing number of cases, governments across the spectrum of affected countries have adopted different strategies in implementing control measures, in a hope to reduce the number of new cases. Despite not having any precedence on the nature of this coronavirus, many of the strategies to tackle infectious diseases like COVID-19 is known. The precautions that we could have taken were not implemented as a precautionary preparation, but as a reaction after COVID-19 became widespread.

"Hindsight is always 20/20, but we do not need to be deep in a crisis only to acknowledge that certain precautionary measures should have been executed earlier. This time, with hindsight, precaution was indeed better than the cure," observed Assistant Professor Kang Hao Cheong, the principal investigator for this study from SUTD. "The successes and failures of COVID-19 management thus far have set a precedent for how countries should approach future outbreaks. These should form lessons for mankind to deal with future pandemics as a precaution, not a reaction."

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 HONEY I SHRUNK THE MUSSELS

Small mussels in the Baltic are getting even smaller

STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

IMAGE: BLUE MUSSELS IN THE BALTIC SEA ARE GETTING SMALLER WITH TIME BUT BIGGER IN NUMBERS, ACCORDING TO A NEW STUDY FROM STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY. ANALYZING DATA FROM THE LAST 24 YEARS,... view more 

CREDIT: THOMAS TRANÅKER

Blue mussels in the Baltic Sea are getting smaller with time but bigger in numbers, according to a new study from Stockholm University. Analyzing data from the last 24 years, the main reason for this appears to be changes in food quality. The type of phytoplankton that is available for blue mussels to eat can in turn be linked to our changing climate.

Blue mussels in the Baltic Sea are already small in their nature - the length of the mussels is about the length of a nail to the mere eye. In this study, the researchers discovered that blue mussels are now weighing around half of what they used to weigh in the 90's, despite the mean length difference just being a few millimeters. But on the other hand there are now more mussels that are really tiny, sometimes as many as 1000 in one square meter compared to about 500 per square meter before.

Mussels compose the largest biomass of animals without a backbone in the Baltic, providing food to eider ducks and fish, for example. But because they are getting 'smaller' it means less food for the species feeding on them. It is also estimated that all blue mussels in the Baltic, together filter the entire waters of Baltic sea every year - and this is essential for cleaning the water from particles and helping to combat eutrophication - one of the Baltics biggest threats. Since the mussel size is affected it might therefore have effects on filtration rates, although this was not tested in this particular study:

"Even though an increase in the number of mussels to some extent may compensate for the smaller size, it is likely that important functions like filtration of the water has been reduced, which could lead to more turbid water" says Agnes Karlsson, Assistant Professor at Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences (DEEP) at Stockholm University.

The reason for the mussels getting smaller is likely altered mix of phytoplankton, now with greater quantities of cyanobacteria and particles from land. Warmer waters favour cyanobacteria, in turn causing increased summer blooms. Yet, the study found no direct role of increasing temperature for the decrease in mussel size. This means that indirect effects of climate change might be more important for mussels. The study is based on continuously monitored and collected samples of both mussels and phytoplankton from 1993 to 2016:

"We want to call attention to the benefits of long-term monitoring. If not for monitoring, we wouldn't have known that this key species for the Baltic is on a slippery slope", says Agnes Karlsson, Assistant Professor at Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences (DEEP) at Stockholm University.

The study highlights the importance of keeping an eagle eye perspective when considering how environmental changes affect key-organism in the long-run:

"There is often multiple and interacting factors responsible for changes in an organisms' condition or population and all of this likely affects the entire ecosystem functioning" says Camilla Liénart, postdoc at Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences (DEEP) at Stockholm University.

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The scientific publication titled Long-term changes in trophic ecology of blue mussels in a rapidly changing ecosystem doi: 10.1002/lno.11633 is published in the journal Limnology & Oceanography.

Contact details

Agnes Karlsson, Assistant Professor at Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences (DEEP) at Stockholm University. e-mail: agnes.karlsson@su.se phone: 073 6386720

Camilla Liénart, postdoc at Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences (DEEP) at Stockholm University. e-mail: camilla.lienart@su.se phone: 072 152 1838

 

Energy at risk: the impact of climate change on supply and costs

CMCC FOUNDATION - EURO-MEDITERRANEAN CENTER ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Research News

 

The energy sector is the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions and therefore the main responsible of the observed human-caused changes in the climate system, but it is also vulnerable to the changing climate.

To understand the future climate impacts on energy systems, a team of scientists - included researchers from the CMCC Foundation - reviewed the literature on the subject, identifying key knowledge gaps in the existing research. The paper "Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios", published in Nature Energy, encompasses a summary of 220 papers from the worldwide literature on the projected impacts of climate change on energy supply and energy demand, at both global and regional scales.

The study reveals that, at a global level, climate change is expected to influence energy demand by affecting the duration and magnitude of diurnal and seasonal heating and cooling requirements. Indeed, due to the rising temperatures, an increase in cooling demand and a decrease in heating demand is expected in the future.

"There is a sort of double impact" explain Enrica De Cian and Shouro Dasgupta, researchers at the CMCC Foundation, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, and RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, among the authors of the study. "On the one hand, as cooling demand is increasing, especially in the hot season, the energy systems are working at capacity. But at the same time, this peak energy demand in summer is coinciding with reduced transmission and distribution capacity, because high temperatures and extreme heat events will affect energy infrastructures - especially power grids and transmission lines - reducing their efficiency and thus the energy reliability".

Moreover, if thermal electricity generation bears most of the risk from heatwaves and droughts, transmission and renewable technologies are highly risk-sensitive to many other extreme climate-related events, such as cold waves, wildfires, flooding, heavy snow, ice storms and windstorms. The expected change in the frequency and strength of such events may result in more power grid and transmission lines interruptions, thus affecting energy costs and supply.

"Understanding the impacts of climate change on the energy systems at a global level is an important input for the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and for the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Moreover, results from this work can be used for studies related to the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and in particular to clarify synergies and trade-offs between SDG7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG13 (Climate Action)", explains Dasgupta. "But deep studies at a regional and national level are also critical, because they allow us to face also behavioural issues: people's behaviour is extremely important when it comes to our energy demand in the future."

At the regional level, results from the literature are more mixed and uncertain. Large regional differences have been observed by the authors, not only due to geographic peculiarities, but also to methodological differences between studies. "Despite the uncertainties, which highlight the need for more research - especially in the context of renewable energy - we have regional results that it is worth considering", specifies De Cian. "For example, the strongest climate change impacts on the energy sector are expected in South Asia and Latin America, two emerging economies that have in common a high population density. This information is critical when it comes to plan climate change adaptation strategies."

The wide variety of methodologies and datasets that are currently being used in the literature limits the scope of assessing climate change impacts on the energy sector, leading to significant differences in results across various studies. For this reason, the authors recommend a consistent multi-model assessment framework to support regional-to-global-scale energy planning.

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The CMCC Foundation contributed to this review study in the context of its involvement within ISIMIP, The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. CMCC is actively working to address some of the key gaps emerged from this work in the EU-funded projects ENERGYA "A study about climate change, energy and adaptation" and COACCH "CO-designing the Assessment of Climate CHange costs".

For more information:
Yalew, Seleshi G., Michelle T. H. van Vliet, David E. H. J. Gernaat, Fulco Ludwig, Ariel Miara, Chan Par, Edward Byers, Enrica De Cian, Franziska Piontek, Gokul Iye, Ioanna Mouratiadou, James Glynn, Mohamad Hejazi, Olivier Dessens, Pedro Rochedo, Robert Pietzcker, Roberto Schaeffer, Shinichiro Fujimori, Shouro Dasgupta, Silvana Mima, Silvia R. Santos da Silva, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Robert Vautard and Detlef P. van Vuuren. 2020. "Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Systems in Global and Regional Scenarios." Nature Energy. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z?

TalTech chemists' new method is a significant step towards greener pharmaceutical industry

ESTONIAN RESEARCH COUNCIL

Research News

 

IMAGE: PROFESSOR AT TALTECH'S DIVISION OF CHEMISTRY RIINA AAV view more 

CREDIT: TALTECH

The rapid changes in the chemical industry are connected one hand with the depletion of natural resources and deepening of environmental concerns, on the other hand with the growth of environmental awareness. Green, environmentally friendly chemistry is playing an increasingly important role in the sustainable chemical industry.

The TalTech Supramolecular Chemistry Group led by Professor Riina Aav published a research article on the applications of mechanochemistry titled "Mechanochemical Synthesis of Amides with Uronium-Based Coupling Reagents: A Method for Hexa-amidation of Biotin[6]uril" in the journal ACS Sustainable Chemistry and Engineering.

Mechanochemistry is a branch of chemistry that studies the effects induced by mechanical action on chemical reactions. Since these reactions take place efficiently in the solid-state phase and do not require the use of solvents that generate toxic residues, it is becoming an increasingly important branch of chemistry, especially in the field of green and sustainable technology..

The TalTech Supramolecular Chemistry Group led by Professor Riina Aav published a research article on the applications of mechanochemistry titled "Mechanochemical Synthesis of Amides with Uronium-Based Coupling Reagents: A Method for Hexa-amidation of Biotin[6]uril" in the journal ACS Sustainable Chemistry and Engineering.

Mechanochemistry is a branch of chemistry that studies the effects induced by mechanical action on chemical reactions. Since these reactions take place efficiently in the solid-state phase and do not require the use of solvents that generate toxic residues, it is becoming an increasingly important branch of chemistry, especially in the field of green and sustainable technology.

One of the authors of the article, TalTech Professor of Chemistry Riina Aav says, "Our Supramolecular Chemistry research group is currently one of the most active research groups in this field in Estonia, investigating in depth how to expand the possible applications of the mechanochemical method in the chemicals industry. As chemists, we see this method in particular as a good solution for environmentally friendly synthesis. This means that it is now possible to produce chemicals much faster and completely residue-free."

Twenty five per cent of pharmaceuticals produced in the chemical industry contain an amide bond. Such pharmaceuticals include e.g. drugs for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases (atorvastatin or Lipitor®), analgesics (Ibuprofen analogues), antibiotics (penicillin and chloramphenicol or Oftan Akvakol), as well as cancer drugs (methotrexate and, inter alia therapeutic peptides such as carfilzomib (KYPROLIS)). Until now, such drugs have conventionally been produced in the chemical industry using solvents. A mechanochemical process involves grinding of chemical substances without the need to use solvents. This means, however, that no toxic waste characteristic of solvent-based production is generated, and in addition, the whole process can take place tens of times faster (e.g. the required active ingredient is created within an hour, whereas the analogous solvent-based reaction requires 24-hours).

"I would like to point out that we were able to replace the organic catalysts used so far with an inorganic one to achieve the result, because dissolution of components is not necessary in mechanochemical synthesis. This further reduced our carbon footprint. We also studied the mechanism of the mechanochemical process, and the results show that the formation pathways of amides or peptides, which are essential for the manufacture of pharmaceutical products, are similar to the ones involved in protein formation in our bodies. The mechanochemical method developed by us is much simpler - the necessary elements are ground and the product obtained is washed with water," a co-author and senior researcher Dzmitry Kananovich, says.

It is a faster and and much more environmentally friendly chemical process compared to the solvent-based method. In addition, this method can be used to produce new molecular receptors biotin[6]urils, which scientists plan to apply as "chemical noses" upon developing residue capturing molecular containers.

"The developed method is great news for chemical and pharmaceutical industry, who are interested in sustainable and residue-free chemical technology solutions not only in the production of medicines, but also food supplements, detergents and other products. Our research group is a member of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology action "Mechanochemistry for Sustainable Industry", which will hopefully ensure practical application of the mechanochemical methods in the chemical industry in the near future," Riina Aav says.

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Source: ACS Sustainable Chemistry "Mechanochemical Synthesis of Amides with Uronium-Based Coupling Reagents: A Method for Hexa-amidation of Biotin[6]uril" 06.10.2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acssuschemeng.0c05558

Additional information: Professor at TalTech's Division of Chemistry Riina Aav, riina.aav@taltech.ee

Kersti Vähi, TalTech Research Communications Officer

Drug resistance linked to antibiotic use and patient transfers in hospitals

Analysing the connection between antibiotic use, patient transfers and the emergence of drug-resistant microbes may help hospitals select the best preventive strategies

ELIFE

Research News

 

Understanding the role of antibiotic use patterns and patient transfers in the emergence of drug-resistant microbes is essential to crafting effective prevention strategies, suggests a study published today in eLife.

Antimicrobial resistance is a growing global health threat, but preventing it takes smart choices at the local level. The current findings, originally posted on bioRxiv*, provide insights on how antibiotic use patterns and patient transfers in hospitals drive the emergence of resistance, and suggest a new approach for tailoring prevention strategies to an individual hospital or ward.

"Hospitals continue to be important hotspots for antimicrobial resistance because of the confluence of frequent antibiotic use, fragile patients and the potential for highly resistant pathogens to spread through hospital wards when patients are transferred," explains lead author Julie Shapiro, Postdoctoral Fellow at the CIRI, Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie, University of Lyon, France.

To help hospitals assess the best strategies for preventing the emergence of resistance, Shapiro and her colleagues employed a technique typically used in ecology to study the effect of antibiotic use and patient transfers on infections. They developed a computer model based on a year's worth of data around seven species of infection-causing bacteria, including drug-resistant strains, in 357 hospital wards in France.

"We found that the volume of antibiotic use at the hospital-ward level had a stronger influence on the incidence of more resistant pathogens, while patient transfers had the most influence on hospital-endemic microbes and those resistant to the last-line antibiotics carbapenems," Shapiro says.

They also found that the use of the penicillin antibiotic, piperacillin-tazobactam, was the strongest predictor of the emergence of bacteria that are resistant to the standard treatments for life-threatening blood infections. If this is confirmed in further studies, the authors suggest that the strategy of using piperacillin-tazobactam instead of carbapenems to prevent antimicrobial resistance may need to be reconsidered.

In fact, the study showed that the effects of antibiotic prescription and patient transfer patterns on the emergence of drug resistance varied among different microbes and types of infections, suggesting that a more individualised approach to preventing resistance is necessary.

"Our work highlights the need to tailor strategies against microbial resistance to specific pathogens," concludes senior author Jean-Philippe Rasigade, Associate Professor of Microbiology at the Hospices Civils de Lyon university hospital. "Applying the modelling techniques we used here to other healthcare settings could help inform local and regional antibiotic stewardship and infection control strategies."

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Reference

The paper 'Metapopulation ecology links antibiotic resistance, consumption, and patient transfers in a network of hospital wards' can be freely accessed online at https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.54795.
Contents, including text, figures and data, are free to reuse under a CC BY 4.0 license.

*This study was originally posted on the preprint server bioRxiv, at https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/771790v1.

Media contact

Emily Packer,
Media Relations Manager
eLife
e.packer@elifesciences.org 01223 855373

About eLife

eLife is a non-profit organisation created by funders and led by researchers. Our mission is to accelerate discovery by operating a platform for research communication that encourages and recognises the most responsible behaviours. We work across three major areas: publishing, technology and research culture. We aim to publish work of the highest standards and importance in all areas of biology and medicine, including Ecology and Microbiology and Infectious Disease, while exploring creative new ways to improve how research is assessed and published. We also invest in open-source technology innovation to modernise the infrastructure for science publishing and improve online tools for sharing, using and interacting with new results. eLife receives financial support and strategic guidance from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, the Max Planck Society and Wellcome. Learn more at https://elifesciences.org/about.

To read the latest Ecology research published in eLife, visit https://elifesciences.org/subjects/ecology.

Sports science: quality wins games

Researchers of KIT analyze success factors in soccer - a good defense, precise and efficient moves, as well as expensive players

KARLSRUHER INSTITUT FÜR TECHNOLOGIE (KIT)

Research News

 

IMAGE: KIT RESEARCHERS IDENTIFIED THE PRECISION AND EFFICIENCY OF MOVES, HOME ADVANTAGE, AND THE MARKET VALUE OF PLAYERS TO BE MAJOR CRITERIA IN WINNING A SOCCER GAME. view more 

CREDIT: (PHOTO: AMADEUS BRAMSIEPE, KIT)

"Quality Wins Games" - this is the conclusion drawn by scientists of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) in their study "Success Factors in Football: An Analysis of the German Bundesliga." The most important success criteria they identified is avoiding errors in the defense and efficiency in scoring goals especially after counter-attacks. In addition, the study empirically confirms that the market value of the team significantly affects win or loss. The study is based on data from 918 games of the Bundesliga. The findings are reported in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport. (DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2020.1726157)

"We found that precision and efficiency in soccer are more important than the absolute number of moves," says Hannes Lepschy from KIT's Institute of Sports and Sports Science (IfSS). "This holds for shots at the goal as well as for passes and movement paths." In his doctoral thesis, Lepschy linked and analyzed player data of 918 Bundesliga games in the seasons from 2014 to 2017 from various sources. He evaluated games with a tight outcome, in which both teams showed about the same commitment. Together with his supervisors, Professor Alexander Woll and Dr. Hagen Wäsche, Lepschy checked 29 variables for their impact on win or loss. He also considered context factors, such as the market value of the team and the average age, with home and guest teams being analyzed separately.

On this basis, Hannes Lepschy identified the most and least important factors for win or loss. "Apart from expected results, some findings surprised us," says Alexander Woll, Head of IfSS. Avoiding errors in the defense as well as the number of shots at the goal and the efficiency in scoring goals have the strongest influence on the probability to win. Contrary to expectations, the chance to win does not increase with the number of hit crosses, but the risk of goals conceded. Neither ball possession nor running performance were found to influence the result of the game. "It is not important how many kilometers a player runs or how often he has the ball. It is the quality of the space opened that decides," Lepschy explains. Hagen Wäsche adds that context variables also have to be taken into account. The average age of the team has no game-deciding influence, but home advantage and market value of the players are of decisive importance.

Lepschy, Wäsche, and Woll recommend Bundesliga coaches to work on the quality of the actions of their teams. It is important to avoid errors in the defense and to train precise and quick moves in space. "And not least, you need a good purchasing strategy," Woll says. In the next stage, the scientists will develop their method further using network analysis methods. This will improve determination of relevant performance factors and practical training recommendations for soccer coaches in the Bundesliga.

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Seasonal Forecasts Improve Food Supply

EU project CONFER started - precipitation forecasts reduce the impacts of droughts and floods in East Africa

KARLSRUHER INSTITUT FÜR TECHNOLOGIE (KIT)

Research News

 

IMAGE: THE KILIMANJARO DOMINATES THE LANDSCAPE OF EAST AFRICA. THERE, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE CAN ALREADY BE FELT CLEARLY. view more 

CREDIT: (PHOTO: HARALD KUNSTMANN, KIT)

Developing more precise seasonal forecasts to improve food supply for a total of 365 million people in eleven countries in East Africa, this is the goal of the new CONFER project funded by the EU. In particular, more precise precipitation forecasts are deemed important to increase agricultural yields. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) is one of nine partners of this international project that is funded by the European Union with a total amount of EUR 7 million.

In 2017, East Africa was affected by the most severe drought since more than half a century. In 2019, heavy precipitation produced widespread flooding within a short term. Entire regions were covered by a waist-high layer of water. Both events produced big damage in agriculture and infrastructure and represented existential threats to the population. "In East Africa, the impacts of climate change can already be felt clearly," says Professor Harald Kunstmann, Deputy Head of the Atmospheric Environmental Research Division of KIT's Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), KIT's Campus Alpine in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. The Institute participates in the new EU project CONFER (Co-production of Climate Services for East Africa). The project started on September 01 and will have a duration of three and a half years. Research institutions, in close dialog with stakeholders and end users, will develop innovative climate services for energy, water, and food supply to support people in East Africa in coping with the challenges associated with climate change. A total of 365 million people in eleven countries in East Africa will profit from the findings.

Researchers Pool Data from Models, Satellites, and Measurement Stations

The international project coordinated by the Norwegian Research Centre (NORCE) is aimed at increasing the accuracy of forecasts for the next months and supplying various weather and climate data for the region. In countries like Kenya and Tanzania, where reservoirs and water power play an important role in irrigation and energy supply, improved control may contribute to increasing agricultural yields and reducing flooding risks.

"In CONFER, we use dynamic and statistical forecast models as well as methods of machine learning and pool data from models, satellites, and measurement stations," explains Kunstmann, who heads the "Regional Climate and Hydrology" Group of IMK-IFU. "Above all, we seek to improve seasonal forecasts, i.e. forecasts for several months. This will enable us to take measures in due time in order to reduce negative impacts of droughts or extremely wet periods."

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CONFER is funded by the European Union with a total of EUR 7 million under its Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation. Apart from NORCE and KIT, other project partners are the Norwegian Refugee Council, Norwegian Computing Center, IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC, Kenya), Kenya Red Cross Society, University of Cape Town (South Africa), University of Leeds (UK), and Met Office (UK).

More about the KIT Climate and Environment Center:
http://www.klima-umwelt.kit.edu/english

Press contact:
Sandra Wiebe
Press Officer
Phone: +49 721 608-41172
Email: sandra.wiebe@kit.edu

Being "The Research University in the Helmholtz-Association," KIT creates and imparts knowledge for the society and the environment. It is the objective to make significant contributions to the global challenges in the fields of energy, mobility and information. For this, about 9,300 employees cooperate in a broad range of disciplines in natural sciences, engineering sciences, economics, and the humanities and social sciences. KIT prepares its 24,400 students for responsible tasks in society, industry, and science by offering research-based study programs. Innovation efforts at KIT build a bridge between important scientific findings and their application for the benefit of society, economic prosperity, and the preservation of our natural basis of life. KIT is one of the German universities of excellence.

This press release is available on the internet at https://www.kit.edu/kit/english/press_releases.php.

Geologists simulate soil conditions to help grow plants on Mars

UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA

Research News

 

IMAGE: A RENDERING OF A HOUSE BESIDE A GREENHOUSE ON MARS view more 

CREDIT: NASA

Humankind's next giant step may be onto Mars. But before those missions can begin, scientists need to make scores of breakthrough advances, including learning how to grow crops on the red planet.

Practically speaking, astronauts cannot haul an endless supply of topsoil through space. So University of Georgia geologists are figuring out how best to use the materials already on the planet's surface.

To do that, they developed artificial soil mixtures that mimic materials found on Mars. In a new study published in the journal Icarus, the researchers evaluated the artificial soils to determine just how fertile Martian soil could be.

"We want to simulate certain characteristics of materials you could easily get on Mars' surface," said Laura Fackrell, UGA geology doctoral candidate and lead author on the study. Simulating the mineral makeup or salt content of these Martian mixtures can tell us a lot about the potential fertility of the soil. Things like nutrients, salinity, pH are part of what make a soil fertile and understanding where Mars' soils are at in that spectrum is key to knowing if they are viable and if not, are there feasible solutions that can be used to make them viable."

In the last decade, Martian surface exploration has expanded the understanding of the chemistry of the planet's surface. Using data taken from NASA's surface samples, the team studied regolith, or the loose material near the surface, to develop the simulants.

The materials used mimic mixtures of soil, clay minerals, salts and other materials obtainable from Mars' surface by scooping loose material or mining it from bedrock.

Despite its thin atmosphere, extreme cold and low oxygen, Mars' surface is known to contain the majority of plant essential nutrients, including nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium.

The presence of nutrients accomplishes one of the big hurdles, but there are still more challenges. "One problem is, their presence doesn't mean they are accessible to plants," Fackrell said. "If you actually put a plant in the ground--just because the iron or the magnesium is there doesn't mean the plant can actually pull it out of the soil."

Plus, the nutrients may or may not be present in sufficient quantity or they may be so high in concentration that they are toxic to plants.

Using simulated Martian soils, Fackrell and fellow researchers have found the textures of artificial simulants to be crusty and dried which may reflect some unexpected conditions of Mars soils that make them more difficult to use.

These challenges add up to a very difficult, though not impossible task. Looking to agricultural science, the group, which includes UGA faculty members Paul Schroeder, Mussie Habteselassie and Aaron Thompson, adapts solutions used on Earth, recommendations that range from rinsing the soil to adding inoculants like bacteria or other fungi to the soil to help the plants grow.

"Specific types of bacteria and fungi are known to be beneficial for plants, and may be able to support them under stress conditions like we see on Mars," said Fackrell, who began her studies in geomicrobiology with Schroeder while conducting her master's thesis research on extreme environments faced by microbes living in hot springs in the Kamchatka Peninsula, in the Russian Far East.

The scientists also see implications from their research for potential innovations in agricultural research for Earth. "Anything we learn about farming on Mars could help with farming in challenging environments on Earth that help us build to a sustainable future," Fackrell said.

Whatever the eventual solution, the prospect of a manned mission to Mars hinges on the ability to grow food.

"There are multiple ways you can look at it, but one option might be to use what's already there as a potting medium, and figure out if that's a viable way to do it or if you have to bring all the plant materials with you," Fackrell said. "The question of whether we can use Mars soil to provide that food will go a long way toward determining the feasibility of manned missions."

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People with disabilities view health care access as human right, study shows

Policy makers do not listen to citizens with disability, maintain barriers to access, findings say

UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS

Research News

 

LAWRENCE -- Politicians discuss the ins and outs of health care while trying to win votes, but for some Americans, policymakers do not seem to be listening. University of Kansas researchers have published a study about perspectives of individuals with disabilities on health care policy, and respondents overwhelmingly stated access to health care is vital and they would like policymakers to pay more attention to their needs.

Scholars analyzed data from 35 phone interviews and survey responses from more than 475 individuals with disabilities about health policy. While the respondents largely reflect the political opinions of American society at large, they tended to agree that health care should be viewed as a human right and that feelings of social exclusion and stigma inform what they would like to tell officials who make health policy in the United States.

"We found that people with disabilities are marginalized and stigmatized and that policymakers don't listen to them," said Sarah Smith, a doctoral candidate in sociology, graduate research assistant at KU and lead author of the study. "They also felt that access to health insurance was important in order to be able to take part in society and that policymakers did not consider how the policies they make affected their lives."

The study, published in the Journal of Disability & Policy Studies, was co-written by Smith; Jean Hall, professor of applied behavioral science and director of KU's Institute for Health & Disability Policy Studies, and Noelle Kurth, senior research assistant at the institute. The interviews and surveys revealed five key themes about health policy perspectives among people with disabilities.

• Access to health insurance and health care is critical for their ability to participate in society
• They felt that politicians did not understand or prioritize the needs and experiences of people with disabilities
• Participants used a variety of arguments why policymakers and society should care about people with disabilities
• They felt access to health care is a human right or moral imperative
• Participants expressed largely positive views regarding the Affordable Care Act.

Respondents nearly uniformly reported how important employment was to their lives in terms of financial security, access to health insurance, not depending on state programs for health coverage and for personal dignity. However, they also faced many barriers to employment, especially those living in states that have not expanded Medicaid who tend to lose eligibility when they are employed.

"Employment is a key component of being part of society and a big part of personal identity," Smith said. "But it can be very hard to access, and most health insurance is tied to employment, which also makes insurance difficult to access, especially if you're not employed full time."

Many study participants also shared that policymakers do not consider the needs of constituents with disabilities.

"I hear politicians on the TV talking about me as if I am the cause of the budget deficit," one respondent said. "They seem to lump us into a group of people--well, not people: 'You're the budget deficit, you're this, you're that,' instead of saying, 'These are people who need care.' Maybe the number one thing, then, is an attitude change. You're not dealing with line items on a budget; you're dealing with what real people need."

Previous research has shown political leanings of people with disabilities are representative of those of American society at large, and participants used a variety of arguments for a matter they agreed on: Policymakers should care about individuals with disabilities. The arguments included that no one chooses to be disabled, anyone can become disabled, better health care access will lead to more productive society, all individuals should matter to policymakers as human beings and that politicians should make the health care policy for all like what they want for themselves and their families.

Health care was viewed as a human right, not something that should only be available to certain members of society, the findings showed.

"Policymakers already know that restricting access to health care has outcomes that range from loss of income to loss of life," one participant said. "True access means that all citizens, regardless of their ability to pay, have access to the same range of services. Like water and an unpolluted environment, health services are essential to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness."

The study's participants also expressed largely positive opinions about the Affordable Care Act. Many reported that they still struggled with health care costs but were at least able to get health insurance through the act. Primarily, the law's health insurance premium subsidies, coverage for preexisting conditions and Medicaid expansion were important to study participants.

Taken as a whole, the results show the connections among disability stigma, health policy and politics. Previous research has shown that people with disabilities face barriers to political participation, similar to those they face with employment and participation in society, and as a result their voices are often underrepresented in health policy discussions, even though their lives are greatly affected by the policies enacted. As key participants in programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, the population can provide vital insight into the functioning and outcomes of those programs, the authors wrote. As America's population ages and the COVID-19 pandemic affects more people's long-term health, new complications to health care access can be expected, which the authors plan to address in future research.

"This is a population that knows a lot about health policy, because they have to know a lot about navigating insurance and health care systems. Policymakers should listen to them," Smith said.###