Climate scientist on UN report: Just as bad as we expected


Melting icebergs and the retreating ice cap are visible in Ilulissat, Greenland, where climate change is causing irreversible damage.
Ulrik Pedersen/NurPhoto via AP

Peter Huybers of SEAS says global response should include satellites, alternative-fuels research, and a commitment to food security, education


BY Ryan Mulcahy

Harvard Staff Writer
DATE August 12, 2021


In a major United Nations report released Monday, the more than 230 scientists who make up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change described “unprecedented” climate change over the past century and warned in similarly unambiguous language that the world will descend further into catastrophic warming absent rapid and aggressive action to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases. We asked Peter Huybers, a professor of Earth and planetary sciences, about the research behind the report, the panel’s first since 2013, and the harrowing details contained within it. The interview was edited for clarity and length.

Q&A
Peter Huybers

GAZETTE: Can you talk first about the climate effects the report identifies as irreversible?

HUYBERS:Irreversibility means that even if other conditions were returned to a baseline condition, the system would not recover. An example is tipping a table until your soup bowl spills, and the fact that returning the table to level doesn’t put the soup back in the bowl.

Studies indicate that the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is irreversible in the sense that, after the ice sheet melts, it would not regrow even if we otherwise returned the climate to pre-industrial conditions. The ice sheet is a vestige of a colder climate deeper in Earth’s past that is maintained, crucially, by high rates of accumulation on its flanks and cold temperatures atop that its own height affords. In this sense, the melting of Greenland and the consequent rising of sea level are irreversible.

The IPCC report also uses the term “irreversible on centennial to millennial time scales” in describing melting of permafrost as well as the warming, acidification, and deoxygenation of the ocean. Permafrost is slow to regrow and the deep ocean adjusts over centuries to millennia, so in this sense these systems will not fully recover over societal timescales even under the optimistic scenario of returning the atmosphere to a pre-anthropogenic state.


“Every year since 2013 has been warmer than it was in 2013 and every year prior in a record that dates back to 1880," said Peter Huybers of the Harvard John. A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences.
Eliza Grinnell/SEAS


GAZETTE: The Sixth Assessment Report uses stronger language than previous assessments to address the influence of human activity on climate change: “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land.” Are there specific findings, historical or otherwise, that have made this connection even clearer than it was eight years ago?

HUYBERS: Yes, this report uses language that is more strident and confident. One contributing reason for this change in tone, I suspect, is the simple fact that in the eight years that elapsed between AR5 and AR6, the climate continued to change, in keeping with predictions for warming, loss of ice, rates of sea level rise, and changes in storms. I’ve seen more than one news piece suggesting that climate change is worse than we expected, and perhaps that is the case with regard to certain consequences, but with regard to overall physical changes, they are as the scientific community generally expected, and which to me seem plenty bad enough to motivate action.

This situation can be contrasted with AR5, which was released at a time when it wasn’t clear if the climate had warmed in the preceding 10 years at rates that were consistent with our predictions. This so-called hiatus in global warming turns out to have been exaggerated by artifacts in how global temperature trends were estimated — for example, excluding much of the fastest warming regions in the Arctic. Moreover, every year since 2013 has been warmer than it was in 2013 and every year prior in a record that dates back to 1880. It’s clear that the warming trends expected in response to rising greenhouse gases are materializing at the expected rates.

Another factor is that there were several studies that the scientific community was contemplating around the time of AR5 that suggested rather low values of equilibrium climate sensitivity, a measure of how much the Earth would ultimately warm in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Very low ranges have been ruled out now, along with some tightening on the higher end, giving a likely sensitivity range of 2.5°C to 4°C as compared with 1.5°C to 4.5°C in AR5.

GAZETTE: With an eye on the clock, are there certain areas of climate research and/or policymaking where global leaders should concentrate resources?

HUYBERS: Sometimes climate change is treated like the sky is falling, which implies a final crash. In fact, the composition of the sky is being steadily altered to trap more heat, and we need both short- and long-term strategies for bringing the climate back into equilibrium. The imperative to act doesn’t go away if — and, I’m afraid, when — we allow Earth’s surface temperature to warm by more than 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius. For example, widespread electrification of ground vehicles is plausible in the near term because price and performance are competitive with fossil fuel-based alternatives, but we also need a longer-term solution for eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from air travel. Alternative ways of making jet fuel and capturing CO2 from the atmosphere are currently costly possibilities — can we make these cheaper or find another way?

Additional research to improve prediction of climate change is also still warranted because, for example, there are big differences in the consequences of 2.5 versus 4°C per doubling of CO2 concentrations. There are notable opportunities to increase our rate of learning about the climate system by developing a constellation of satellites to monitor the flow of energy in and out of the Earth system. Another constellation of satellites could monitor greenhouse gas fluxes for purposes of better holding nations accountable for their emissions.

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Let me also highlight a broader issue: that no one can be expected to prioritize reducing greenhouse gas emissions absent a just standard of living. In some places that means helping adapt to the consequences of climate change, such as rising sea level, but more often it means things like ensuring food security, providing access to education, and working for peace.

GAZETTE: What is the best-case scenario for humankind if leaders were to start acting tomorrow on the findings in the assessment?

HUYBERS: Many world leaders, to their credit, are attempting to address the issues raised in the assessment. One best-case scenario is for world leaders to agree to policies that will substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions, at the 26th UN Climate Change Conference, scheduled for November in Scotland. Another, more general best-case outcome is for world leaders to build upon our shared interests in stabilizing climate to promote greater well-being and stability generally. Of course, political leaders can only get so far out ahead, such that any best-case scenario implies ample foresight and willingness on the part of people generally.

What Does National Security Mean in a +2 Celsius World?


The new U.N. climate report confirms that significantly higher global temperatures are now a near-term certainty. National security planning needs to take a warmer, less stable world into account.

By Jacob Parakilas
August 13, 2021

This week, the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest summary report. As expected, the report is not exactly suffused with optimism. It finds that the Earth is now virtually guaranteed to warm at least 1.5 degrees Celsius over the preindustrial baseline in the coming decades, even if a massive global effort succeeds in reducing emissions over the next few decades. By itself, that will create more extreme weather events, and it may also precipitate other unpredictable but severe systemic collapses, like the shutdown of the Gulf Stream.

At this point, a significantly altered global climate is not a theoretical impossibility (though certainly if meaningful action is taken in the next few years it might limit the extremity of the change). The IPCC report is only confirming what has become painfully obvious from observing current events. The last few months have seen numerous, simultaneous extreme weather events: catastrophic flooding in China and Germany, overwhelming heat waves in normally temperate Western Canada, record-setting drought and wildfires in the American West, and more.

In short, the environment upon which virtually all human activity depends is undergoing severe and potentially irreversible change. It is changing the world that we will live in, and the world that national security policies must be made for. Any strategy that does not at least recognize this truth is useless.

In a previous column, I explored the challenges and contradictions of adapting the U.S. military for climate change. This is a different and more strategic question: How should a country’s leadership think about continuing to secure its national interest while the ground shifts under its feet?

The short answer is that it will be much harder world to plan and prepare for. The climate is an intensely complex system, and though we know in broad terms what types of impacts to expect from 1.5 C or more of warming, we do not know many of the specifics of timing and localization; nor is it possible to predict the complex interactions of climate with agriculture, trade, patterns of migration, and other crucial human systems.

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There are two basic models for thinking about how a radically hotter world will change geopolitics. The first is fundamentally Hobbesian. As rising waters and extreme weather simultaneously push populations out of critically endangered areas and create access to new trade routes or resources, whatever limitations that states have accepted on their behavior since World War II could largely be abandoned. The wave of nationalism that has seen such an upsurge over the last decade will be accelerated by the perception that the correct exercise of national power on a warming planet is to secure the biggest possible piece of a shrinking pie for the nation. That mindset leads almost axiomatically to violent struggle.

The other is model is collaborative. Realizing that the threat to lives, livelihood, and prosperity posed by a rapidly warming and transforming planet exceeds the danger of national competition, states could collaborate on reducing emissions, responding to extreme climatic events, and any more extreme measures, such as geoengineering, that may become necessary in order to stabilize the climate. But this mindset requires nations to profoundly reconsider their strategic priorities and make common cause with rivals, which is anathema to strategic establishments focused on competition.
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That suggests that the fundamental challenge is one that will be familiar to anyone who has studied the Prisoner’s Dilemma: cooperate or defect. But like the climate itself, geopolitics is complex; neither of these models is likely to fully encompass how the world will respond over the coming decades. States, after all, can generally walk and chew gum at the same time; it should be broadly possible for the better-resourced ones, at least, to maintain a robust national defense while also reconfiguring toward climate harm reduction and resilience measures.ADVERTISEMENT


But the problem is that while states may have the underlying capability to advance multiple priorities simultaneously, their leadership may not be quite so flexible. And thus far there is little reason to think that national leaderships are willing to steer decisively toward the cooperative model. China, the world’s largest current emitter, has invested heavily in solar power and battery production, but is also bringing massive amounts of coal-fired power online in the next few years. The United States, the largest historical emitter, vacillates between governments that institute insufficiently ambitious policies and those that actively seek to roll back even those modest gains.

Nor are things necessarily better elsewhere; the middle powers have made some commitments – and some have made substantial progress since the Paris Accords – but probably not enough to change the overall trend. Meanwhile, there is a fundamental question of fairness to be resolved: How to limit climate harm without cutting off opportunities for growth and development for the billions of people in the developing world, who did not benefit from carbon-intensive economic growth.

The way these different incentives interact with the speed of change in the climate makes an overly prescriptive strategy virtually impossible to put into practice. But the change in the environment must be baked into any national strategic analysis of the coming decades; a strategy that does not do so is worse than useless.

AUTHORS

CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR
Jacob Parakilas
Jacob Parakilas is an author, consultant, and analyst working on U.S. foreign policy and international security.

 

Communicating climate change has never been so important, and this IPCC report pulls no punches

by Simon Torok, James Goldie, Linden Ashcroft, The Conversation

Condensing the IPCC report to its highlights, such as in this graphic, is an effective way to engage time-poor readers. Credit: Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub/IPCC

On Monday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the first installment of their sixth assessment report. As expected, the report makes for bleak reading.

But the report also makes for dry reading. Even the Summary for Policymakers, at 42 pages, is not a document you can quickly skim.It found all regions of the world are already experiencing the impacts of climate change, and its warming projections range from scary to unimaginable.

Local governments, national and international policymakers, insurance companies, community groups, new home buyers, you and me: everyone needs to know some aspects of the IPCC's findings to understand what the future might look like and what we can do about it.

With climate action more crucial than ever, the IPCC needs to communicate clearly and strongly to as many people as possible. So how is it going so far?

The most assertive report in 30 years

The grueling IPCC process and an extensive author list of 234 scientists make IPCC reports the world's most authoritative source of climate change information. Every sentence is powerful because each one has been read and approved by scientists and government officials from 195 countries.

So when the report states "it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land," there is absolutely no denying it. In fact, the IPCC has become progressively more assertive in the 30 years it has been assessing and summarizing climate science.

In 1990, it noted global warming "could be largely due to natural variability." Five years later, there was "a discernible human influence on global climate." By 2001, "most of the observed warming […] is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations."

This week's reference to "unequivocal" human influence pulls no punches.

Why has this language changed? Partly because the science has progressed: we know more about the complexities of the Earth's climate than ever before.

But it's also because the report's authors understand the urgency of communicating the message effectively. As this week's report makes clear, limiting warming to the most ambitious 1.5℃ goal of the Paris Agreement may be (at least temporarily) out of reach within decades, and the goal of keeping warming below 2℃ is also at risk.

As the IPCC's scientific assessment reports are only published every seven years or so, this may be the authors' last chance to warn people.

Climate change communication isn't easy

Communicating any science is hard, but climate science has particular challenges. These include the complexities of the science and language of climate change, people's misunderstanding of risk management, and the barrage of deliberate misinformation.

The IPCC has standardized the language they use to communicate confidence: "likely," for example, always means at least a 2-in-3 chance. Unfortunately, research has shown this language conveys levels of imprecision that are too high and leads to readers' judgements being different from the IPCC's.

The grueling report approval process also means IPCC statements can be conservative to the point of confusion. In fact, a 2016 study showed IPCC reports are getting harder to read. In particular, despite the IPCC's efforts, the Summaries for Policymakers have had low readability over the years, with dense paragraphs and too much jargon for the average punter.

There has also been a rise in communication barriers since the final part of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report was released in 2014, including more fake news, and climate news fatigue.

The IPCC's complex results can appear controversial and hotly debated, because of politicization and a well-funded disinformation campaign from fossil fuel giants. And with news so often passed through social media, it's easy for people to turn to someone they trust, even if that person's information is wrong.

While there has been an increase in communication imperatives, including the urgency for action and the increase in science information, these are all taking place during a headline-stealing global pandemic.

Also, people are exhausted. Eighteen months of living with a pandemic has probably shriveled everybody's ability to take on more big problems.

On the other hand, hunger for COVID-19 information has raised familiarity with exponential curves, model projections, risk-benefit calculations, and urgent action based on scientific evidence to combat a global threat.

Remaining hopeful

To address the challenges of communicating the science, climate communicators should aim for consistent messages, draw on credible information, focus on what is known rather than the uncertainties, offer tangible action, use clear language that avoids despair, connect locally, and tell a story.

To a large extent, Australian contributors to the IPCC release this week have done just that, chiseling relevant facts from the IPCC's brick of a report into blogs and bites.

To its credit, the IPCC has also provided a plethora of communication resources in different formats. This includes videos, fact sheets, posters and, for the first time, an interactive atlas enabling you to explore past and possible future climate changes in any region.

However, there's (so far) less focus on information for different audiences, such as students, young people, managers and planners rather than just politicians and scientists.

And the atlas, while a great tool, still requires users to have some climate science literacy. For example, average users looking for future climate information may not understand that CMIP6 and CMIP5 are the next, and previous, generations of climate models used by the IPCC.

While mainly focusing on the report's terrifying findings and commitment to global warming, media coverage this week also emphasized the importance of immediate action, and sources of hope.

This is a positive approach because feeling that humanity cannot, or will not, respond adequately can lead to a lack of engagement and action, and eco-anxiety.

As Al Gore pointed out 15 years ago in An Inconvenient Truth: "There are a lot of people who go straight from denial to despair without pausing on the intermediate step of actually doing something about the problem."

Early next year, the IPCC will release two volumes about ways to adapt to, and reduce, climate change. After the confronting results of this first volume, the next two must provide messages of hope if we're to keep fighting for our planet.

'Not too late' to prevent 'runaway climate change': EU

Provided by The Conversation 

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Sustainable Beauty: The Beauty Industry’s Role in Mitigating Climate Change

How are beauty companies taking action against climate change and what does the future hold?

08.12.21

Earlier this week, leading scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a landmark report warning that global climate change is accelerating—and human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are the overwhelming cause.
 
Heatwaves, extreme rain and intense drought are on the rise, but the extent of future disasters will be determined by how fast governments can adapt and evolve, the report argues.
 
“From a physical science perspective, limiting human-induced global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, reaching at least net zero CO2 emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions. Strong, rapid and sustained reductions in CH4 emissions would also limit the warming effect resulting from declining aerosol pollution and would improve air quality,” the report reads.
 
Beauty Brands That Have Taken Action
 
While the diagnosis may seem dire, scientists say there is still time to prevent catastrophic climate change. Many global beauty companies have already taken steps to reduce emissions and halt the use of fossil fuels, including the following examples:
 

Estée Lauder

Last year, The Estée Lauder Companies (ELC) announced that it had achieved Net Zero emissions and sourced 100% renewable electricity globally for its direct operations.

Building upon this achievement, the company also met its goal to set science-based emissions reduction targets for its direct operations and value chain, positioning the company to take even more decisive action against climate change in the coming decade.
 
“Setting ambitious targets in line with the latest climate science is testament to our values and commitment to managing our business for the long term,” said Fabrizio Freda, president and CEO of ELC. “In this decisive decade for climate action, we will continue to accelerate efforts to ensure a healthy, beautiful planet for generations to come.”
 

Arbonne

Arbonne is another company that understands that reducing energy demand and moving to renewable energy is crucial to doing its part to reduce greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change. By 2025, Arbonne expects to:
 

• Divert over 90% of its waste, globally
• Reduce water consumption by 20% compared to a 2019 baseline
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% compared to 2019, and then 75% by 2030
• Reduce energy consumption by 20% compared to 2019

 

L’Oréal

L’Oréal has also set bold, measurable targets for 2030 on climate, water, biodiversity and natural resources, in accordance with what scientific experts demand and what our planet needs.
 
Since 2005, the Group has reduced the CO2 emissions of its plants and distribution centers by 81% in absolute terms, exceeding its initial target of 60% by 2020, while production volume increased by 29% over the same period.
 
Furthermore, at the end of 2020, L’Oréal had 72 carbon neutral sites (meaning they use 100% renewable energy), including 19 factories.
 
These companies and many more are making progress to reduce the impact and severity of climate change. They have set ambitious goals for themselves and acted on them, but it will likely take an effort from the whole industry to limit global warming.
 

 

Working Together to Make a Difference
 
“The cosmetics industry produces more than 120 billion units of packaging annually—the problem is larger than any individual brand, vendor or corporation,” explains Jess Abrams, executive director, sustainable development, Shiseido Americas. “It’s all about industry alignment. This is where I see the future of sustainable beauty heading—becoming an industry that brings together vendors, suppliers, and competitors alike.”
 
(Read The Future of Sustainable Packaging: Insights from Beauty Brands & Packaging Designers)
 
This process of rallying the industry together for a common goal will be challenging, and is certainly easier said than done, but the good news is that according to the results of a representative population survey commissioned by the German Packaging Institute (Deutsches Verpackungsinstitut), the multitude of innovations in the field of sustainable packaging in recent years are being well received by consumers.
 
Nearly half of respondents – 44% – perceived clear progress in environmental friendliness of packaging, and only 15.7% saw it as having regressed. Moreover, three out of four respondents, 74.6%, confirmed that this progress has been achieved either with no compromise in functionality and convenience – or even enhancing it.
 
Business as Usual Won’t Cut It
 
The IPCC report emphasizes that many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea level. That means that the time for actions is now. There is hope for the future, as exemplified by the companies that are already making a difference, but it is debatable whether the global Beauty Industry as a whole has done enough to reduce its impact on our planet.
 
Swedish climate activist Greta Thurnberg had this to say during a recent interview for Democracy Now: “This report doesn’t tell us what to do. It doesn’t say you have to do this, and then you have to do this. It doesn’t provide us with such solutions or tell us that you need to do this. That’s up for us. We are the ones who need to take the decisions, and we are the ones who need to be brave and ask the difficult questions to ourselves, like: What do we value? Are we ready to take action to ensure future and present living conditions?”
 
The facts about climate change and global warming are available and clear. The question is whether the Beauty Industry can be the positive influence that it has the potential to be.

Read More: What Are Others Doing?

The Future of Sustainable Packaging: Insights from Beauty Brands & Packaging Designers

A Sustainable Beauty Conversation: Suppliers Speak Out

Innersense Organic Beauty Is Now Climate Neutral Certified

Emissions from Russian Permafrost Could Spike Tenfold if Leaders Ignore UN Climate Report Warning

Aug. 12, 2021

Experts believe that as permafrost melts, it will release an increasing amount of carbon, setting off a cycle of warming nearly impossible to stop.Taken / pixabay

Russia’s permafrost could deteriorate fast and spark an accelerating loop of warming if world leaders don’t heed UN climate scientists’ call to drastically cut global carbon emissions, an expert told The Moscow Times.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report published Monday shows unequivocally that climate change is progressing more quickly than feared — with temperatures already 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels — and that time is running out to prevent catastrophic warming. It expands upon the IPCC’s 2013 climate assessment, which came two years before nearly 200 countries signed the Paris Climate Agreement in hopes of keeping warming below 1.5 C.

“This IPCC report studies climate feedback effects in much more detail than the previous report,” the World Wildlife Foundation (WWF) Russia’s head of climate and energy research Alexei Kokorin said.

Large amounts of carbon are stored within permafrost, the layer of soil that stays frozen year-round and covers nearly 65% percent of Russia’s territory.

While this permafrost doesn’t currently emit much carbon, ​​Kokorin said its emissions could increase tenfold by 2100 if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at their current pace.

Experts believe that as permafrost melts, it will release an increasing amount of carbon, leading to warming that in turn melts even more permafrost — setting off a cycle of warming nearly impossible to stop.

Kokorin also said Russia can expect to see extreme weather events with increasing frequency, with once-in-a-decade heat waves happening every five years if global temperatures rise 2 C beyond pre-industrial levels and happening nearly every year if the planet warms by 4 C.

“That could affect whether people will choose to live in Moscow. If a heatwave like the current one happens every five years, you can see it as bearable. But what if it happens almost every year? Would we have to move the Russian capital to another location?” Kokorin said.

More detailed information will be available when Russia’s national climate assessment comes out sometime next year, Kokorin said.

While the IPCC report relied mostly on scientific articles published in English, the Russian report will also include a lot of material that hasn’t been translated into English yet, potentially offering a deeper understanding of Russia’s unique climate dynamics.

Siberian Wildfire Could Become Biggest in Recorded History – Greenpeace

Updated: Aug. 12, 2021

The republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russia’s largest and coldest region, has been devastated by unprecedented wildfires this summer.

Ivan Nikiforov / TASS


A wildfire raging in northeastern Siberia could become the largest in recorded history, experts from Greenpeace Russia told The Moscow Times on Wednesday.

The republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russia’s largest and coldest region, has been devastated by unprecedented wildfires that are now larger than the rest of the world's blazes combined. Residents have been under a state of emergency for weeks as thick, acrid smoke blankets settlements and reaches cities thousands of kilometers away, while thousands of volunteers have been recruited to fight the fires

The largest of these fires has exceeded 1.5 million hectares in size, the Greenpeace environmental group's forestry head Alexey Yaroshenko told The Moscow Times.

“This fire has to grow by about 400,000 hectares to become the biggest in documented history,” Yaroshenko said. “It is impossible to contain this fire through human efforts. ... Firefighters would have to put out a line of fire 2,000 kilometers long.”

Only rain could stop or significantly slow down this fire, Yaroshenko said, but current rainfall is too weak to do so.

“In the best-case scenario we could save settlements and infrastructure that lies in the fire’s path,” he said.

Yaroshenko’s comments come days after a landmark United Nations climate report rang the alarm on global warming and called for more ambitious measures to prevent the climate from spiraling out of control.

Experts say Sakha’s fast-warming climate — the region has seen its annual average temperature rise by 3 degrees Celsius since the beginning of the 20th century — combined with a 150-year record drought and high winds has turned its vast taiga forest into a tinderbox.

Harmful forestry practices are a key factor behind the fires’ unprecedented spread, Greenpeace expert Yulia Davydova told The Moscow Times, as regional authorities aren’t required to extinguish fires in so-called “control zones” – areas far from human settlements. Logging, both illegal and legal, is another common cause, according to new data acquired by Greenpeace.

With weeks left to go in the wildfire season, the European Union’s Copernicus satellite monitoring service said that the Siberian forest fires have already emitted a record 505 megatons of carbon dioxide.

And satellite observations by NASA’s Earth-monitoring tool MODIS showed that smoke from the wildfires reached the North Pole for what is believed to be the first time in known history last week.

Nationwide, over 13.4 million hectares of land have been burned by wildfires — an area roughly the size of Greece — so far in 2021, Greenpeace says, citing official data.

Putin Alarmed Over 'Unprecedented' Natural Disasters in Russia

By AFP Updated: one day ago

Ivan Nikiforov / AP Photo / TASS


President Vladimir Putin on Saturday said the scale of natural disasters that have hit Russia this year is "absolutely unprecedented" as local officials ask for Moscow's help to tackle fires and floods.

A former skeptic of man-made climate change, the Russian leader called on authorities to do everything possible to help Siberians affected by the region's gigantic wildfires, as well as Russians living in the flood-hit south of the country.

Speaking at a video conference with the leaders of the affected eastern and southern regions, Putin said he received daily reports on the climate situation in the country.

"In the south (of Russia), the monthly norm of rainfall now falls in a few hours and in the Far East on the contrary, forest fires in drought conditions are spreading rapidly," Putin said.

In Russia's largest and coldest region of Yakutia, this summer's forest fires have already burned through an area larger than Portugal.

Russian weather officials and environmentalists have linked the increasing intensity of Siberia's annual fires to climate change.

"All of this once again shows how important it is for us to deeply and systematically work on the climate and environment agenda," he said.

He called on authorities to be ready to evacuate more people living in areas affected by the fires — especially the elderly — as well as provide economic support for them.

He also asked officials to calculate the effects of the fires and make plans to reconstruct houses.

The Russian leader said it was important to do everything to "save the forest riches" and "minimise damage for animals of the taiga", a word used to describe northern Russian forests.
Hundreds evacuated

Local officials pleaded for reinforcements and Moscow's economic help to deal with the human cost of damage caused by extreme weather.

Aysen Nikolayev, the head of Yakutia, said firefighters were able to save 230 houses from flames.

He said evacuated villagers had received psychological help, with local children being sent to holiday camps.

He called the scale of the fires a first "in history" and asked for help after the region's harvest was severely affected.

"We will continue to save more houses," he said, thanking Putin for his support.

This week Russia launched a national response centre and deployed additional firefighters to battle the devastating Siberian fires.

The governor of the southern Krasnodar region Veniamin Kondratyev said 132 people — mostly holidaymakers — had been evacuated in the Black Sea resort of Anapa last night amid rising floods.

"We could not predict what would happen at night," he said, adding that the region had "the same rainfall in a day as we usually get in a year."

Kondratyev said that despite difficult climate conditions, the holiday season in resort areas is "continuing and under control."

The head of Moscow-annexed Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, said that two people have died as a result of floods on the peninsula and that over 3,000 have asked authorities for help.

Heavy smog hung over the regional capital of Yakutsk on Friday, which was declared a non-working day in much of the region over health concerns due to wildfire smoke.

For years Putin was notorious for his scepticism about man-made global warming and saying Russia stands to benefit from it.

But in recent months he has also made statements to the effect that climate change is not just a boon to Moscow.

The Russian leader this year participated in a summit hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden and said Moscow is interested in "stepping up international cooperation" on climate change.

Smog from the wildfires in Yakutsk.
Vadim Skryabin / TASS

In Photos: Life Amid Siberia's Devastating Wildfires

Aug. 13, 2021 - 15:32

Russia’s largest, coldest region is blanketed by thick smoke from wildfires that have torn across the Siberian taiga at an unprecedented scale.

Authorities the republic of Sakha (Yakutia) have declared a state of emergency over the rapidly advancing fires and hazardous smoke.

Here’s a closer look at the scene from the ground that locals have described as “apocalyptic”:



In Yakutsk, the regional capital of the republic of Sakha, fine particle concentrations in the air are now more than 70 times the maximum recommended safe level.
Vadim Skryabin / TASS



The wildfires have reached the Lena Pillars Nature Park, a UNESCO World Heritage site.
Vadim Skryabin / TASS



The head of the region ordered a non-working day on Friday in Yakutsk and 10 other municipalities, urging residents to stay at home due to the harmful effects that the smoke can have on human health.
Vadim Skryabin / TASS



A Russian emergencies ministry employee battles a wildfire. The Siberian wildfires are now larger than the rest of the world's fires combined.
Russian Emergencies Ministry / TASS



Flights to and from Yakutsk have been canceled or delayed due to poor visibility.
Vadim Skryabin / TASS



Earlier this week, President Vladimir Putin ordered to send reinforcements to the region, but experts say the largest fires will be impossible for humans alone to extinguish.
Russian Emergencies Ministry / TASS


The Moscow Times

Canadian finance industry has “an obligation” to act on climate change

Global Risk Institute says there are five key takeaways for financial institutions from the IPCC report


By Steve Randall
Aug 12, 2021

This week’s report from the UN-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has sent shockwaves through industries and governments.

Its clear message that it’s not an option to delay significant measures to meet the targets set by the Paris Agreement has sparked renewed calls for action, and the financial services industry has an important role to play.

The Toronto-based think tank, Global Risk Institute (GRI) in Financial Services, has published its top five takeaways from the IPCC report that Canada’s financial institutions (FIs) can use to seize the opportunities from building a greener economy.

"Now is the time for Canada to come together across government, industry and academia and punch above our weight," says Sonia Baxendale, President and CEO, Global Risk Institute.

Canada in the cross-hairs

The urgency for Canada to lower carbon emissions in the short term is one of the biggest calls to action and the first of the GRI’s takeaways.

With modelling projecting larger-than-average temperature increases for the country, the prospect of more catastrophic storms, droughts, and wildfires is a rallying call.

With global pressure to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels, this will impact those lenders that are most exposed to the sector.
Better data

The second takeaway is that the better data available to FIs offers greater insights into the risk and gives the industry enhanced ability to manage and price risk.

It also allows for the development of products that meet the needs of the low carbon economy, such as new insurance products; and for potentially higher premiums to reflect the risk.

Liability risk

With the IPCC report clearly linking certain specific weather events to human-made climate change, a rise in liability risk is expected.

Financial firms could face litigation if they have financed known polluting industries that lead to weather incidents.

GRI likens the potential outlook to that of the tobacco industry where exposed industries face court cases and legal suits, which may increase market and credit risk.
Financing the transition

Of course, Canada’s financial sector will continue to play a major role in financing the transition to a greener economy.

Specifically, GRI sees a doubling down on transition finance and the move to a low carbon economy.

“Financing and underwriting of fossil fuels must support energy diversification toward renewables, and transparency from firms about net zero portfolio alignment and climate-related financial risk must increase,” the report says.
Investing in the planet

The fifth takeaway is that investment in Mother Earth must be at the heart of climate change action.

With a scramble for financial resources to adapt, build resilience and invest in nature-based solutions to buffer the impacts, GRI says the financial sector should develop 'climate adaptation finance' as a tool within the sustainable finance umbrella.

"Industry must pick up the pace. We have an obligation to our stakeholders, shareholders and future generations to face an unprecedented challenge and drive the innovation needed to create a sustainable low-carbon economy today – not in the distant future,” concluded Baxendale.

Climate change can't be ignored in Calgary's civic election, advocates say

Author of the article: Madeline Smith

Publishing date:Aug 12, 2021 •

 

It was another smoke shrouded day in the city as Calgarians exercised on the Bow River pathway on Monday, July 19, 2021. PHOTO BY GAVIN YOUNG/POSTMEDIA

Advocates say climate change should be a central issue in this year’s municipal election as a new UN report sounds a “deafening” alarm about the future.

Environmental advocacy group Calgary Climate Hub is calling for city council candidates to pursue policies directly aimed at lowering greenhouse gas emissions, from setting reduction targets for city-owned utility Enmax to increasing access to public transit.

The city’s current climate resilience strategy aims for Calgary’s emissions to be 80 per cent lower than the 2005 levels by 2050, a target that many say falls short. The Climate Hub says at a minimum, net-zero emissions by 2050 must be the goal.
MORE ON THIS TOPIC

U.N. climate change report sounds 'code red for humanity'

'We're going in the wrong direction': Climate change concern prompts Farrell to plan more city oversight

Monday’s report from the scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says human-caused emissions are “unequivocally” driving average global temperatures up, and some changes are already irreversible and will cause more extreme weather.

A temperature increase of 1.5 C is generally seen as the maximum the planet can withstand without widespread social upheaval. The report says that target will arrive within 20 years, and emissions need to be drastically slashed over the next decade to ensure warming doesn’t get even worse

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Be The Change YYC Street Outreach team members distribute water, hats and other supplies to vulnerable Calgarians in the downtown core during a heat wave on June 28, 2021. PHOTO BY GAVIN YOUNG/POSTMEDIA

Calgary Climate Hub director-at-large Rob Tremblay said it’s clear that the impacts of climate change are already here, pointing to this summer’s devastating heat waves and wildfires as just the latest example. The City of Calgary’s climate team says climate change means the city will see more severe and frequent extreme weather like flooding, drought and the effects of wildfires.

“It’s not just something that’s uncomfortable. It’s something that’s deadly. There’s a big, big cost to just doing nothing when it comes to climate change,” Tremblay said.

The group recently published its platform for the Oct. 18 municipal vote, and is urging Calgarians to ask council candidates about tackling climate change locally. The Climate Hub won’t be endorsing any candidates ahead of the vote, but has published a questionnaire on climate and equity issues sent to mayoral candidates throughout July.

“The traditional policy levers aren’t necessarily the city’s jurisdiction, but I want to make sure council candidates aren’t using that as an excuse not to address climate change,” Tremblay said.

“The city needs to say, ‘What can we do?’ and not just cede that (responsibility).”

Smoke from wildfires obscured downtown Calgary beyond the teepees of the Calgary Stampede Elbow River Camp on July 18, 2021. PHOTO BY GAVIN YOUNG/POSTMEDIA

University of Alberta urban and regional planning faculty lecturer Neal LaMontagne echoed that cities are limited in some of the options they have for addressing climate change. But they also have a huge hand in transportation and development, which can be critical to the state of emissions.

“One of the courses I teach is planning history, and that’s the trajectory I’ve seen: from ‘How do we reduce our greenhouse gases?’ to ‘Let’s not think about urban environments and nature in opposition,'” he said.

“We know what a sustainable and a climate-resilient city can look like. We’re learning more what that can look like on the prairies in a meaningful way,” he said.

Cities also have the power to mandate things like sustainable building standards, which can make a big difference. The majority of Calgary’s carbon footprint comes from the energy required to heat and power buildings, adding up to slightly more than two-thirds of emissions.

LaMontagne said strengthening regulations is one step, but it’s also important to build sustainability into a city in a way that people directly feel the benefits — like ensuring quick access from neighbourhoods to shops and services without having to drive there.

“The big move, which is on all of our collective behaviour, comes from making a city that’s just really wonderful to live sustainably in.”

— With files from Reuters

 

British Columbia

Long-term Vancouver tenants in prime beachside neighbourhood say they're being renovicted

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Residents allege owners of Alberta-based Avala Equities have no intention to move in

Maryse Zeidler · CBC News · Posted: Aug 15, 2021 

Linda (Lulu) Millburn at her home in Kitsilano. Millburn and her neighbours allege the landlord plans to renovate suites after tenants have been evicted in order to charge higher rents, a process nicknamed renoviction. (Tuulikki Abrahamson)

Four long-term tenants of a century-old housing complex in Vancouver are contesting an eviction notice from their landlord — a real estate investment firm that claims to be moving family members into the dilapidated suites. 

The property at 1540 Yew Street, close to the beach in the city's trendy Kitsilano neighbourhood, consists of a two-storey walk-up with nine units and a laneway house with two units, which were all built around 1910. 

Linda Millburn, 76, has lived in her two-bedroom suite in the laneway house since 1981 and currently pays $719 a month in rent. Millburn, who goes by Lulu, says she was "shattered" when she got the eviction notice in April. 

"I was numb," Millburn said. "I thought if I ever started crying about it, I'd never stop." 

Millburn and her neighbours have a hearing scheduled for Aug. 23 with the province's Residential Tenancy Branch which handles disputes between landlords and tenants. 

Renoviction allegations

The property was recently purchased by Avala Equities — an Alberta-based, family-owned and operated real estate investment firm — for $4,525,000. 

The company did not respond to requests for comment from CBC News. 

According to documents submitted to the Residential Tenancy Branch, Millburn and three other residents got a two-month notice to end tenancy for the landlord's use of the property from four different landlords, all from the Jakovljevic family which owns Avala Equities. 

The property at 1540 Yew Street in Vancouver is more than 100 years old and under a heritage review. (Google Maps)

But Millburn and her neighbours say that's not legal because the property is technically owned by a corporation.

They also allege the owners are being dishonest about their intentions and are actually planning to renovate the property and charge much higher rents — a process known as a "renoviction."

Tenancy laws in British Columbia limit how much landlords can increase rent each year, meaning that long-term tenants like Millburn pay far less than the going rate for a property. In Vancouver's red-hot real estate market, some landlords use renovictions to oust long-term tenants and make more money. 

• B.C. to extend rent freeze to end of 2021, increase protections against 'renovictions'

Property under heritage review

The property is zoned for a height of up to four storeys. 

But Millburn says a development application for the property was cancelled after it caught the attention of Heritage Vancouver, which applied for a heritage review. On its website, Heritage Vancouver says the 110-year-old property is "a surviving example of early Vancouver laneway housing."

The renters also point to Avala Equities' website, which states "we specialize in the acquisition and repositioning of mismanaged and undervalued properties in strategic locations of Western Canada."

• Victoria's affordability gap keeps tenants on edge — and sometimes pushes them over it

A page for the 1540 Yew Street property says "our goal is to take this neglected building and develop the property into a modern and well-maintained building."

In documents submitted to the Residential Tenancy Branch, the renters dispute the company's claim that family will be moving in. 

"Given the Jakovljevics's apparent wealth, it makes no sense that they would require residence in an old, run-down building, or in laneway houses that are in particularly poor shape," the documents say. 

Community connection

Millburn says her suite has only been painted three times in the 40 years she has lived there.

The floors are warped, she adds, and almost all the windows are sealed shut. In winter she and her neighbour keep warm with heat from the stove, she says, and there's no sink in the bathroom. 

Despite the inadequacies, Millburn says the suite is her home and she would be devastated if she had to move. 

"A lot of people that have lived here, I've seen them date and get married and have babies," she said. "And the babies are all 25 years old now." 

Millburn has lived at the property for 40 years. (Tuulikkki Abrahamson)

Liz Blackburn, whose mother lives in the main building of the complex, says Millburn is the type of person everyone knows in the neighbourhood. 

Blackburn says when her mother was hospitalized with a stroke, Millburn cared for her cat and later checked on her every day when she returned home. Millburn also helps her mother with groceries and takes out her garbage.

"I don't know where I'd be without Lulu," Blackburn said. 

• B.C. Court of Appeal upholds New Westminster's anti-renoviction bylaw

'I don't know how I would survive'

It's not just the four tenants who are worried about the evictions, Blackburn says. Tenants like her mother are worried the landlords will evict them next. 

If the landlord does decide to proceed with a renoviction and are successful, Milllburn says she would at least like to be compensated for it. According to Vancouver's Tenant Relocation and Protection Policy, Millburn would be entitled to $17,256 because of how long she has lived there. 

• Tenants facing renoviction worry about becoming homeless

Despite the large sum, Millburn would prefer to stay in her home and her community. If she is evicted, she doesn't know where she'll end up given how expensive rental rates are in the city. 

"I don't know how I would survive, to tell you the truth," she said.