It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Tuesday, May 10, 2022
Webb telescope's first full color, scientific images coming in July
Washington (AFP) - Get ready for a summer blockbuster.
The James Webb Space Telescope will produce "spectacular color images" of the cosmos in mid-July -- its first observations dedicated to its mission of scientific discovery, an astronomer overseeing the project said Monday.
The successor to Hubble has spent the last five months aligning its instruments in preparation for the big reveal, with scientists deliberately remaining coy about where the cameras will be pointed.
"We'd really like it to be a surprise," Klaus Pontoppidan, a scientist at the Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore told reporters, adding that the secrecy was partly due to the first targets not yet being finalized.
NASA and its partners the European Space Agency (ESA) and Canadian Space Agency (CSA) formed a committee to create a ranked list of objects, which they now intend to work through.
Webb's team has already released a series of star field images taken for calibration purposes, but the new photographs will be of astrophysics targets, key to deepening humankind's understanding of the universe, said Pontoppidan.
These images will actually be shot in infrared, and then colorized for public consumption.
Visible and ultraviolet light emitted by the very first luminous objects has been stretched by the universe's expansion, and arrives today in the form of infrared, which Webb is equipped to detect with unprecedented clarity -- giving it an unprecedented view of the first stars and galaxies that formed 13.5 billion years ago.
Webb, which is expected to cost NASA nearly $10 billion, is among the most expensive scientific platforms ever built, comparable to the Large Hadron Collider at CERN, and its predecessor telescope, Hubble.
Its mission also includes the study of distant planets, known as exoplanets, to determine their origin, evolution and habitability.
DOTCOM BUST US extradition dropped after Megaupload co-defendants strike deal 2022/5/10 03:35 (EDT)
Kim Dotcom was originally charged with racketeering, fraud and money laundering in the United States and still faces extradition
Wellington (AFP) - Two former colleagues of tech entrepreneur Kim Dotcom have agreed to face online piracy charges in a New Zealand court in exchange for US extradition proceedings being dropped, authorities and the defendants said on Tuesday.
Dotcom, founder of the Megaupload file-sharing system, is still being pursued by the United States on fraud, money laundering and racketeering charges punishable with up to 20 years in jail.
The website -- an early prototype of cloud storage -- was shut down when New Zealand police raided Dotcom's Auckland mansion in January 2012 at the behest of the FBI, triggering numerous court hearings and appeals.
Former coders Mathias Ortmann and Bram van der Kolk said in a statement issued by their lawyer that they have agreed to face equivalent charges in New Zealand.
"We have reached an agreement with the New Zealand Government and the United States of America under which we have agreed to be charged in New Zealand for offences similar to those we face in the United States," the two men said.
They emphasised that the case has taken a "heavy toll on our lives" and that neither wants to leave New Zealand, where they have residency.
New Zealand's Crown Law Office confirmed the deal in a statement, saying the charges filed in Auckland District Court on Tuesday morning were the equivalent of what the pair would have faced in the United States.
US prosecutors allege the Megaupload service facilitated widespread piracy of films and publications, costing rights holders more than US$500 million.
Dotcom is now the last remaining person charged in the case to still be facing extradition.
A fourth defendant, former Megaupload marketing manager Finn Batato, had extradition charges dropped last year after developing a life-threatening medical condition.
All four men have maintained their innocence, questioning why Megaupload was targeted.
Dotcom responded on social media on Tuesday, posting a defiant photograph accompanied by a message: "Keep fighting!".
He denies any wrongdoing and is living in Queenstown, New Zealand while on bail as he fights extradition proceedings.
ARTS Art in exile: Afghan Sara Nabil fights for women's rights Radical and direct: Afghan artist Sara Nabil employs her art to denounce women's oppression in her home country. Kunsthalle Mannheim is now showing her works.
Afghan artist Sara Nabil screams life into her performances
What is politics and what is art can hardly be separated in Sara Nabil's work. The Afghan artist — who now lives in Germany — processes her own experience of oppression, escape, and the search for identity in her work.
Through photographs and performances, she depicts how women in Afghanistan become victims of systematic oppression. She also explores ways to regain control over their identity.
For the new show at Mannheim's Kunsthalle, Sara Nabil unfolds an artistic radicality that is new for her: In a performance before the exhibition began, the artist completely cut off her long, black hair in front of an audience.
She snipped and snipped away, before she ultimately shaved off the last bits. This artistic protest was a way for Nabil to show how the female body in Afghanistan has increasingly become a venue for political ideologies, cultural conflicts and power struggles — even more so since the Taliban seized power again last summer. There, such a public staging of female corporeality is taboo. Women's rights in Afghanistan
For Sara Nabil, art is an act of self-liberation. "In Afghanistan, we have an Islamic, patriarchal society. Because of my identity as a woman, I have always been oppressed," she told DW. "By cutting my hair, I regain freedom over my body. I'm going against the rules, laws and regulations imposed on me as an Afghan woman by religion, society and the government."
During the performance, she called on the audience to donate their own hair, as a sign of solidarity with women in Afghanistan and those who have experienced the same fate.
The Kunsthalle Mannheim performance was filmed by three different artists, with the different videos being integrated into the exhibition, along with Nabil's hair.
"What's important in Sara Nabil's work is that there's an option for action in art, which is a way to reclaim freedom over your own body," exhibition curator Christina Bergemann told DW.
When women cannot determine how their bodies are shown: a photograph by Afghan artist Sara Nabil
Nabil witnessed a suicide bombing in Kabul — and fled
Sara Nabil was born in 1994 in the Afghan capital Kabul and went to school after the Taliban regime was overthrown in 2001.
As a teenager, she began to study modern art at the Center for Contemporary Arts Afghanistan (CCAA). In 2008, she participated in an exhibition that was also shown in Germany.
She then studied political science at Karwan University in Kabul beginning in 2013. Even then, as a women's rights activist and artist, she was threatened by the Taliban. In December 2014, she witnessed a suicide bombing at the university.
A man blew himself up in front of her. For Nabil, it was a decisive turning point: "This time I survived, but next time I will die," she recalls thinking.
Shortly after, in February 2015, she took advantage of an invitation to a student conference in the Netherlands to ask for political asylum in Germany. Since 2016, she has been studying art at the Hochschule für Gestaltung (University of Art and for Design) in Offenbach.
Opening dialogue through art
Since she was able obtain a visa, her escape differs from many other people's flight from their home country, Nabil said. But she shares the experience of exile with millions of people who are persecuted because of their religion or political stance.
She still hasn't come to terms with her escape, says the young artist, adding that she feels she is living between two worlds. She also continually asks herself: How will my art be received in Afghanistan? She says that she is not always understood there.
Some things come across as shocking to Afghan society, she says. "But that's what I want. I want to say something strong that makes a difference and opens up new dialogues."
Sara Nabil also spreads her message via social media.
On Instagram, she posted a video in front of the United Nations headquarters in Geneva on March 8 to mark International Women's Day. In it, she shouts into the camera for a good two and a half minutes, visibly straining at the end. "This is a cry for survival, resistance, equality and liberation from all social and political shackles," Nabil writes in the post.
Dismayed by destruction of artistic sphere in Afghanistan
"It is very painful for me that art is currently not taking place in Afghanistan," the artist told DW. Everything that has been created in the field of art in the last 20 years has been destroyed by the Taliban, she says.
The Taliban ordered the closing of schools for girls: Pupils in Kabul in March 2022
For example, graffiti artworks in public spaces have been painted over with sentences from the Koran. At the Afghanistan National Institute of Music, the Taliban destroyed instruments and arrested artists. Friends of Sara Nabil have also been arrested. Her family had to flee to Germany after being threatened by the Taliban due to Sara's activism.
It is frightening how women and girls are deprived of their identity, says Nabil. She deals with this topic in her photo series "Power," which is on show at the Kunsthalle Mannheim. The black-and-white photographs focus on a person veiled beyond recognition.
"Sara Nabil uses various, partly fictitious forms of full-face veiling to depict that the Taliban deliberately use dress and behavior regulations to oppress women and girls in their fundamentalist interpretation of Sharia law," says Christina Bergemann, the exhibition's curator.
Advocating education of girls and women
Nabil said that veiling prevents women from being both able to perceive and to shape their environment properly. Thus, they would be more or less excluded from the public realm.
Nabil does not aim to criticize the headscarf or those who decide to cover their hair. She does, however, denounce the oppressive mechanism of the full-face veil and the power structures associated with it.
The last image of her photo series "Power" is completely black; you cannot see anything. "This is what the Taliban envisions for women. The woman has completely disappeared," Nabil says.
Nabil's work extends far beyond art. To help girls in Afghanistan in a concrete way, she has founded an online program for schoolgirls called E-School Afghanistan. With the program, she wants to ensure that at least some Afghan girls receive an education. The Taliban have barred girls from going to school beyond the sixth grade, despite announcements to the contrary when they took power of the country.
The exhibition "Sara Nabil" runs through August 28, 2022 at the Kunsthalle Mannheim and is open to the public free of charge.
This article was originally written in German.
German populism takes a blow
Both the far-right AfD and the socialist Left Party were punished by German voters in recent state elections. German populism has struggled in the wake of the Ukraine war.
The far-right populist AfD has taken a beating in recent elections
Both the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the socialist Left Party lost votes and failed to make the 5% hurdle necessary to enter the state parliament — continuing a trend that began in March with the state election in Saarland.
The humiliation was more significant for the AfD, the upstart right-wing populist party that experienced an electoral surge following its birth nine years ago, and who until Sunday had been represented in all of Germany's 17 parliaments, and had never failed to win re-election to any of them.
The reaction was one of relief for many in the country's political scene, including the Central Council of Jews in Germany, whose President Josef Schuster called the AfD's failure "one of the best pieces of news of yesterday's election day."
Schleswig-Holstein's AfD leader Jörg Nobis saw his party exit from parliament — a first.
'Voters don't appreciate strife'
The Schleswig-Holstein AfD blamed internal strife. The party's parliamentary group, made up of five representatives after the 2017 election, had already seen two parliamentarians leave after falling out with the rest of the party. "Voters don't appreciate rows," a disgruntled Schleswig-Holstein AfD party leader Jörg Nobis told the ARD news network on Sunday night.
The Left Party has seen a decline on all levels. National party co-leader Susanne Hennig-Wellsow recently stepped down in the wake of an internal sexism row, and at the state level in Saarland, internal strife saw the party's veteran co-founder Oskar Lafontaine leaving the party altogether just days before the election.
But is this really a national trend for the parties on the opposite ends of Germany's political spectrum? Yes, according to Ulrich von Alemann, professor of political science at Düsseldorf University. "These are obviously not good times for small, radical parties," he told DW. "When the elephants stamp through the savannah, it becomes uncomfortable for the mice."
Von Alemann believes the elections in Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein have reversed the oft-predicted demise of Germany's big centrist parties, and this is likely to make coalition-forming and governing a lot easier. "A few years ago, it was said that three-way coalitions are our destiny now in Germany, and now we see that there's another way," he said.
Both the AfD and the Left Party have seen an erosion in support
Rallying around in a crisis
The Ukraine war has also exacerbated the small parties' problems, partly because both the AfD and the Left Party have been seen as Russia-friendly.
"Both parties have traditionally seen the Russian position as more justified than the NATO or US position," said Wolfgang Seibel, chair of politics and public administration at the University of Konstanz. "It could also be the 'rally around the flag' effect could be playing a role — that in crisis situations, where the issue is war and peace in Europe, the parties that 'represent the state,' so to speak, are strengthened at the expense of those at the margins of the political spectrum."
Left Party co-chair Susanne Hennig-Wellsow resigned at a time of plummeting voter shpport
But in one sense it's strange that neither the AfD nor the Left Party appear to have been able to profit from their broadly-shared, anti-war position: Both argue that Germany should not send more arms to Ukraine, and should remain as neutral as possible in the conflict. Quite a few Germans agree with that: The last few weeks have seen a decline in the proportion of Germans in favor of sending more weapons. Opinion polls show that society is split on the matter.
But the problem for the AfD and the Left Party is that this debate is largely being carried out among the mainstream political parties. "The more cautious positions are already represented in the big parties, and the protest parties on the left and right aren't necessary to have those positions represented in parliaments," said von Alemann.
"The concern that the war could escalate if Germany engages too much — that is already represented in the main political debate. The chancellor himself already represents it to some extent," added Ursula Münch, director of the Tutzing Academy for Political Education in Bavaria. "There isn't an obvious gap in the political debate, as there was during the so-called migration crisis, which only the AfD filled with its anti-migration stance."
The other conundrum about the current trend in Germany is the question of how the German trend does not fit at all with the recent French experience, where President Emmanuel Macron had to fight off a tough challenge from the far-right Marine Le Pen as well as the success of left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who took 21.7% of the first-round vote.
But that can be explained by a host of factors, according to Münch, starting with the completely different government and party systems in the two countries. "Macron pushed the centrist parties into irrelevance with his République en Marche movement," said Münch. "That highlighted the weakness of such movements, because the distance of such one-person movements to underprivileged populations became much greater, and Le Pen was able to profit from that. I think we're protected from that in Germany with our party system and the strength of our parties."
In France, far-right populist candidate Marine Le Pen managed to gain support
Münch also suggests that the outer parties on the left and right are far from dead, especially in eastern Germany, where the Left Party still leads one state government, and the AfD is, in Münch's words, "in the middle of the political action. I would say that east and west Germany are developing in different directions."
Now, however, both parties need to concentrate on recovering lost ground at next Sunday's big west German election in North Rhine-Westphalia, the state home to nearly a quarter of Germans. Both the AfD, currently polling at 7%, and the Left Party, at 3%, have reason to be worried.
Edited by: Rina Goldenberg
Antisemitism 'deeply rooted' in German society
A new study has bad news on antisemitism in Germany. Far-right sympathizers and observant Muslims bear the brunt of the blame, but all corners of society have their blindspots.
German synagogues have police protection
Germany's security services registered 3,028 antisemitic crimes in 2021. That is the highest official count since police statistics started tracking the figures.
Now, the American Jewish Committee contracted the Allensbach Institute to conduct a representative survey on societal attitudes toward Jews. It shows that antisemitism is not just a problem on Germany's political peripheries but is "deeply rooted" in mainstream society.
While the issue is most prevalent among the far-right and observant Muslims, according to the study, 60% of those polled said antisemitism is "somewhat" or "definitely" widespread. About two-thirds see the problem as having grown in the last decade, with the worst cause viewed as coming out of far-right extremist circles, followed by anti-Israel attitudes, and Islamist influence.
The survey underlined that anti-Semitism is not only a problem of the political fringes,
said AJC director Remko Leemhuis
The survey focussed especially on Muslims living in Germany. 31% of Muslim respondents saw anti-Israel views are the main reason for anti-Jewish sentiment, while overall only 21% of respondents said so. More than half of the Muslims polled said that antisemitism is widespread in Germany and that it has gotten worse in the last decade.
"Antisemitism is the result of a lack of democracy education, a lack of tolerance. The Mideast problem is also an ever-present issue. I try to show the difference" between Jews and Israel, Aziz Fooladvand, a school teacher in western Germany, 80% of whose students are Muslims, told public broadcaster Deutschlandfunk. "That's good — we have to distinguish between religion and politics."
The politics of antisemitism
There is plenty of animosity to go around, the survey showed. Sinti and Roma, black people, and Muslims are all viewed generally less favorably than Jews, as are "foreigners in general."
Looked at from a partisan viewpoint, Alternative for Germany voters (AfD) — the far-right populist party — were more likely to hold antisemitic views than those from other parts of the political spectrum. More than one-third of AfD supporters agreed, for example, with the statement that "Jews have too much political power" — about twice the general population of that opinion.
Despite the focus on the AfD, the poll comes to troubling conclusions for the entire political spectrum. All parties show a "certain caution" when it comes to antisemitic issues, which "hands over political space to the AfD," said AJC Berlin Director, Remko Leemhuis.
He criticized not just AfD voters, but party members, as a "critical part of the problem."
More religion, more prejudice
On the Muslim side, the survey showed a "strong connection" between prejudice against Jews and religiosity. Those who said they regularly attend prayer services registered higher antisemitic sentiments than those who said they don't. For example, 68% of mosque-goers agreed with the statement that "Jews have too much economic and financial power," whereas 39% of non-practicing Muslims said the same.
One issue in Germany is that many mosques are funded by conservative organizations originating in the Middle East. There has been a long-standing shortage of domestic training and employing of religious leaders, such as imams.
"We have plenty of Islamic communities who pose zero problem. We should take them more into account," said Felix Klein, Germany's federal commissioner for Jewish life and combating antisemitism.
It's vital not to distinguish between types of hatred against Jews, Klein said, but "reject every form of antisemitism."
Jewish traditions and rites are under threat as European society becomes ever more secular. But protecting them is part of safeguarding democracy, says Daniel Höltgen from the Council of Europe.
CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M IS IR4.0 Ukraine war and COVID pandemic fuel cybercrime
Last week, hackers tried to disable the servers of several German authorities and ministries. A Russian group claimed responsibility on Telegram. The Federal Police Office has reported an increase in cybercrime.
Germany's federal police office has noted a significant increase in cybercrime
The attack by a group calling itself "Killnet" was intended to overwhelm the servers of German authorities. A so-called DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service) attack.
Even the German agency responsible for tackling cybercrime, the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), was itself a target. It did not suffer much damage — merely a delay in loading its website, BKA Vice President Martina Link told DW. On the sidelines of a BKA presentation titled "Situation Report Cybercrime," Link spoke of a "'rather low-level" attack.
Nevertheless, this manageable DDoS attack is only the latest signal of a new — and threatening — development: Link refers to cyber groups and hacker collectives aligning themselves in solidarity with Russia or with Ukraine. They would then commit corresponding attacks — such as "Killnet". With that, "there is a risk that these attacks will also affect innocent bystanders, even if that was not intended," Link explained
One thing is certain: The war in Ukraine is also being fought online, and from there it is spilling over into Germany's digital spaces. That is why the President of Germany's Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) Arne Schönbohm warned DW: "In view of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, the BSI continues to observe an increased threat situation for Germany." Schönbohm called on businesses, organizations, and agencies to review their IT security measures and make sure they were suitable for the current threat level. "Since Russia's attack on Ukraine began, there have been individual cases of additional IT security incidents, but these have only had isolated effects," the BSI chief continued.
Boundaries become blurred
The thing that worries criminologist Martina Link: She sees the boundaries between purely criminal and state-controlled hackers becoming increasingly blurred. This brings us back to the possible repercussions of the war in Ukraine.
BKA deputy director Martina Link sees international cooperation as vital in the fight against cybercrime
At the end of February, at least 3000 wind turbines in Germany could suddenly no longer be accessed for remote maintenance. The system ran over the internet and the turbines were connected to the network via a satellite provider. This provider, however, was hacked — on February 24, the morning the war began. Probably because the Ukrainian authorities and military also used the same provider.
In its latest annual report, released in mid-2021, Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) wrote: "The Russian intelligence services are making extensive use of cyberattacks for Russia's geopolitical power plays." It then lists several well-known hacker groups that it attributed to the secret services. These include"Fancy Bear," which has been active since at least 2004, and "Snake," an "extremely clandestine, technologically savvy attacker with international target selection."
Haya Shulman is a professor of computer science at Goethe University in Frankfurt and heads the department at the Fraunhofer Institute for Secure Information Technology. The cyber security expert is sure: Although hardly any cyberattacks in connection with the war in Ukraine have been registered, that does not mean they don't exist. That's because "successful cyberattacks are not detected," Shulman told DW. She refers to the hacking attack on the Bundestag in 2015. Or the hack of the federal computer network, which was publicly revealed in 2018. The network that was attacked was used for communication between the chancellery, ministries, and security services is mostly separate from the regular internet — and was considered secure.
First 'cyber catastrophe'
Online criminality is booming: The BKA recorded a marked increase in the number of cases to about 150,000 registered cases last year. Experts estimate the real number of cases to be significantly higher.
Many cyber attacks have far-reaching consequences and can affect all citizens in their daily lives. In early July last year, for example, hackers in the eastern German district of Anhalt-Bitterfeld attacked local authorities with ransomware. The malware encrypted all data and programs. The administration's servers and computers all had to be shut down. Social benefits could no longer be paid out, cars could not be licensed. The district declared a cyber disaster — something which was unprecedented in Germany.
Martina Link of the BKA lists several reasons for the "significant increase in the number of cases." Above all, the surge in digitization brought about by the coronavirus pandemic has created a wealth of new opportunities for criminals.
At the same time, the digital underground economy has evolved: From botnets to credit card data to malware, everything can be bought using Bitcoin. Because perpetrators work across borders, it is difficult for police forces to reach them. The rate of such crimes being solved is about 30% — below the German average for police crime statistics (PKS).
Since the perpetrators are so well-linked internationally, Martina Link relies on cross-border cooperation between authorities. "This has developed very positively in recent years," she told DW. She refers to the example of "Emotet" last year. Law enforcement agencies of several countries joined together to break up the infrastructure of this malware operation.
This article was originally written in German.
COMING TO AMERIKA NEXT
El Salvador woman handed 30-year sentence for abortion A court in El Salvador has sentenced a woman to 30 years in prison because she suffered an obstetric emergency that ended her pregnancy. Abortions are banned in the Central American country.
Many women in El Salvador have been sentenced for apparent miscarriages
A court in El Salvador has jailed a woman for 30 years because she suffered an obstetric emergency that resulted in the end of her pregnancy, according to an NGO that was assisting in her defense.
The Citizen Group for the Decriminalization of Abortion denounced the sentence and said it planned to appeal the ruling.
The sentence, which was delivered Monday, could not be immediately confirmed, since courts were closed on Tuesday for Mother's Day.
"The judge acted with partiality, giving greater weight to the version offered by the Attorney General's Office, which was loaded with stigmas and gender stereotypes," the NGO said in a statement. It was the first case of its kind in the past seven years, the group said.
The woman, who has been identified only as "Esme" by the group, was kept in pre-trial detention for two years following her arrest when she sought medical care in a public hospital.
The Inter-American Court of Human Rights ruled in November that El Salvador had violated the rights of a woman identified as Manuela who was sent to prison for breaching the abortion laws. She died while serving her 30-year sentence.
Private Meal With Kingpin Offers Clues to How Marcos Will Rule Philippines
Philip Heijmans Tue, May 10, 2022,
(Bloomberg) -- Ahead of his landslide election win on Monday, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. gave few specifics on how he’d govern the Philippines. But a private dinner he attended soon after entering the race last October may provide clues on his priorities -- and to whom he’s beholden.
Joined by Sara Duterte, the president’s daughter who would later become his running mate, Marcos Jr. sat down with the powerful family that controls most key positions in the tourist hotspot of Cebu, which has more voters than any of the nation’s 81 provinces outside the capital. Sharing laughs over wine, Governor Gwen Garcia -- known as the “Iron Woman of Cebu” -- came away impressed with the only son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos.
For Garcia, 66, endorsing the man known as Bongbong wasn’t an easy decision. Her father was an opposition lawyer who stood up against his father’s regime before it ended abruptly in 1986. The clan didn’t back Marcos Jr., 64, when he ran for vice president six years ago -- a decision that cost him the election.
But this time around Garcia saw Marcos Jr. as the candidate most likely to deliver two benefits in particular that were more valuable than settling old scores: More money for infrastructure projects, and greater autonomy from the political class in Manila. And on Monday, Cebu was among the places that helped Marcos Jr. win the presidency with the biggest share of the vote since his father won a boycotted election in 1981.
“He will certainly be helping us insofar as tourism infrastructure is concerned,” Garcia said in an interview days before the election at her office in Cebu City, when asked what she expected from Marcos Jr. “But I would really be very, very appreciative if we could finally get ahead on federalism,” she added. “We would wish for that kind of autonomy.”
Marcos Jr.’s resounding victory shows just how powerful family dynasties like the Garcias remain in a nation with a front-row seat to tensions between the U.S. and China. The former American colony has had a mutual defense treaty with the U.S. since the 1950s and sits on the doorstep to Taiwan, making it a crucial player in any potential conflict with China.
Yet most elections in the Philippines are decided by local fiefdoms with narrow interests. Although runner-up Leni Robredo, 57, drew historic crowds in the final weeks of a campaign focused on fighting corruption, ultimately it proved no match Marcos Jr.’s patchwork of alliances with local leaders in the Southeast Asian nation of 110 million people.
The question now is how much Marcos Jr. will give back to the clans that supported him. While the Philippines is forecast to be among Southeast Asia’s best-growing economies this year, one of Asia’s fastest inflation rates threatens to further hurt households that saw incomes decline with the pandemic. A quarter of the population lives in poverty, and the World Bank warned that number could jump as food prices rise.
Running on a broad slogan of “unity,” Marcos Jr. has said he’ll keep most of President Rodrigo Duterte’s economic policies, which for the most part were left to technocrats to design and implement. The Philippines maintained the investment-grade credit rating it won in 2013 even as Duterte announced a “Build! Build! Build!” program that more than doubled infrastructure spending to upwards of $20 billion per year.
The problem for the next administration, however, is finding more revenue to keep the program growing without blowing out the budget, according to Christian de Guzman, senior vice president of the Sovereign Risk Group at Moody’s Investors Service.
“I’m not sure if there’s any low-hanging fruit just because of the situation that we find ourselves in,” he said. “There is indeed a need to narrow the fiscal deficits and stabilize the debt.”
Marcos Jr.’s attention has been primarily focused on building the political alliances he needed to pull off Monday’s victory. After sealing a deal with the Dutertes, who remain the most popular political figures in the Philippines, Marcos Jr. also secured endorsements from parties affiliated with other former presidents, including Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Joseph Estrada -- both of whom faced plunder charges after leaving office.
Marcos Jr. can also thank his dad for some help. The elder Marcos appointed the father of Victor Remulla, governor of vote-rich Cavite province south of Manila, back in 1979 -- and the family is still loyal to this day.
Speaking by phone, Remulla said he became convinced Marcos Jr. had a firm grasp on policy and economic management during conversations between the pair that lasted up to 90 minutes. The 54-year-old politician also defended the country’s dynastic politics, saying it ultimately comes down to delivering for voters.
“Fat dynasties are hindered by the complacency of leadership,” he said. “But it’s really up to the people, and up to the people who serve to make things better for their constituents.”
Following street protests that ousted Marcos Sr. in 1986, the Philippines introduced congressional term limits and a constitutional provision banning political dynasties from government.
But clans have become even more entrenched since then: a 2019 study found that dynasties held four in five governor posts after mid-term elections that year, compared with 57% in 2004. They also controlled two-thirds of seats in congress, up from just under half during the same period, a phenomenon scholars blame for contributing to one of Asia’s highest income inequality rates.
Marcos Jr. opponents see his victory as the culmination of a disinformation campaign on social media that had followers believing his father’s dictatorship was a golden age for the Philippines. And they fear he’ll use his power to sort out his own legal troubles, including ending the official search for some $10 billion allegedly siphoned during his father’s two-decade rule, clearing up a $4 billion estate-tax dispute and keeping Imelda Marcos, his 92-year-old mother, from serving jail time.
Down in Cebu, Garcia is hopeful that Marcos Jr. will give her family and others more power, even as leaders around the world often back away from such promises when entering office. She expressed disappointment in Rodrigo Duterte, who dropped proposals to implement a U.S.-style federal structure where regions can impose taxes and make decisions on things like movement restrictions during the pandemic. Marcos Jr. has so far remained non-committal on the topic.
“Choose some bright spots, start with three or four that have already shown their capability in handling affairs on their own,” Garcia said, adding that Cebu was ready to be a federal state. “Suggestions are welcome, but we know the situation on the ground.”
In a small Cebu fishing village, Marcos Jr. supporter Rene Casqueso has much more modest expectations: The construction of community hospitals and more doctors in small towns. The 43-year-old carpenter has struggled to maintain work during the pandemic, and his family has largely subsisted on whatever they catch.
“I’m not sure if he understands the plight of the poor, but what I saw was he would meet with the laborers,” Casqueso said about Marcos Jr., as he perched in shallow coastal waters near his home. “I think he has a new way for the Philippines to recover and rise again.”
Who is Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Philippines' next president?
Marcos has won by a landslide in the race to replace President Rodrigo Duterte. Experts say his newfound popularity is the result of a decades-long campaign to improve the family's public image.
Marcos Jr. has seen widespread popularity among young people who do not remember his father's rule
Having secured more than 30.8 million votes in the election held on Monday with over 97% of the ballots counted in an unofficial tally, Marcos is set to replace the current president, Rodrigo Duterte, at the end of June.
A victory for Marcos Jr. makes for a stunning political comeback for his family, which has become synonymous with the massive accumulation of ill-gotten wealth and human rights violations. His late father, Ferdinand Marcos Sr., was toppled in a 1986 uprising after holding power with an iron fist for two decades.
Marcos Jr.'s vice-presidential running mate is Sara Duterte, daughter of the incumbent President Duterte. A likely continuation of Duterte policies
Marcos, 64, has not presented many details about his policies, but is expected to carry ahead the same approach as his predecessor Duterte, pursuing a ruthless consolidation of power.
Critics say Marcos is attempting to rewrite the family's controversial history for a youthful electorate, though they believe he is unlikely to replicate his father's authoritarian style of ruling.
"He made promises [in his campaign] that played well with the public but aren't particularly practicable. So his campaign has focused on gut issues, such as the rising cost of living, and lowering electricity [prices]. But he is providing a vague notion of what he is able to achieve, making it seem more straightforward than it actually is, and people seem to be buying it," said DW Correspondent Janelle Dumalaon.
"This is the battle of the heart and soul of the country," Nicole Curato, a sociologist and political analyst, told DW.
"I don't mean to suggest that Marcos Jr. will impose martial law like his father did, but he will have the executive power to undermine institutions that were created in response to his father's abuse of power," she added. A deades-long public image revamp
Marcos Sr. ruled the Philippines from 1965 to 1986 and he ruled as dictator under martial law from 1972 until 1981. During those years, more than 60,000 people were detained, over 30,000 tortured, and an estimated 3,000 were killed, according to rights groups. He was overthrown in a peaceful revolution in 1986 and died in 1989 while living in exile in Hawaii.
After the Marcos family was allowed to return to the Philippines in 1991, Marcos Jr. and his mother Imelda quickly moved back into politics. Imelda Marcos was elected to congress for four terms.
Marcos Jr. spent 21 years in public office, serving in the legislature and as governor of the family's stronghold in the province of Ilocos Norte. He unsuccessfully ran for vice president in 2016.
Many have said that Marcos' rise to power is the result of a decades-long attempt to improve the image of the family, also through social media. An online campaign across YouTube and Facebook has attempted to frame the time under Marcos Sr. not as a period rife with human rights abuses and corruption, but rather as a time of low crime and prosperity.
A series of questionably edited videos has also sought to convince Filipinos that the stories of corruption on the part of the Marcos family were untrue. Marcos Jr. has also seen widespread popularity among young people who do not remember his father's rule.
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru
Philippine dictator's son wins landslide presidential victory
Filipinos hold protest after Marcos clan return to power
(AFP/Andrew LEESON)
Andrew BEATTY, Allison JACKSON Mon, May 9, 2022,
The son of late Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos cemented a landslide presidential election victory Tuesday, after Filipinos bet a familiar but tainted dynasty could ease rampant poverty -- while dismissing warnings the clan's return would deepen corruption and weaken democracy.
With an initial count almost complete, Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Junior had secured over 56 percent of the vote and more than double the tally of his nearest rival, liberal Leni Robredo.
His now unassailable lead of 16 million-plus votes spells another astonishing reversal in the fortunes of the Marcos family, who have gone from the presidential palace to pariahs and back again in the space of a few decades.
The Marcos victory is a hammer blow to millions of Filipinos who hoped to reverse course after six bloody years of increasingly authoritarian rule by outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte.
Far from repudiating Duterte's excesses, Filipino voters elected his daughter Sara as vice president by a landslide in a parallel vote.
In 1986, Marcos senior and kleptocratic first lady Imelda Marcos were chased into exile by the "People Power" revolution.
Marcos junior steadfastly refused to denounce his family's brutal and corrupt excesses in a campaign marked by a relentless online whitewashing of history.
With memories of the regime fading with time and muddied by countless misleading Facebook posts, Filipino voters turned to Marcos to rekindle past glories that were mostly imagined.
"He will lift our country from the poverty we're experiencing now," said supporter and retired police officer Anthony Sola, who described himself as elated.
The 50-year-old dismissed allegations that the Marcoses stole as much as $10 billion during their last period in power: "I don't believe they stole money, because if they did, they should have been imprisoned already."
Some 43 percent of Filipinos consider themselves poor, and 39 percent more feel they are on the borderline, according to a March poll by the Social Weather Survey.
Delivering a late-night address from his campaign headquarters in Manila on Monday, a tired but beaming Marcos thanked volunteers for months of "sacrifices and work".
But he stopped short of claiming victory, warning that "the count is not yet done". A fully certified tally is not expected before May 28.
On the streets, hundreds of ecstatic supporters set off fireworks late into the night, waved the national flag and clambered onto parked cars to chant in victory. - 'More death, more hunger' -
Rights activists, Catholic leaders and political commentators all had warned about returning the Marcos clan to power.
"This election could have been our biggest chance for radical change," said Mae Paner, a 58-year-old political satirist who was part of the People Power Revolution.
"There will be more death, there will be more debt, there will be more hunger. The Marcoses will steal," she said.
Bonifacio Ilagan, who endured two years of imprisonment and torture under Marcos senior's imposition of martial law, said the election exposed a deep malaise in Philippine society.
It had, he said, laid bare, "how deeply the trickery of historical fraudsters has seeped into the consciousness of Filipinos."
Failed presidential hopeful Leni Robredo, a lawyer and the current vice president, admitted "clear disappointment" about the result but vowed to continue the fight against poor governance.
The 57-year-old had promised to clean up the dirty style of politics that has long plagued the feudal and corrupt democracy, where a handful of surnames hold sway.
In the final weeks before the election, her campaign morphed into a catchall pro-democracy movement that drew almost one million people to a single protest in Manila.
Fearing a backlash from 15 million disgruntled voters -- with many alleging voting irregularities in Monday's poll -- police urged restraint.
"I am appealing to you to remain calm. Let us respect the result of the vote," said acting Philippine police chief Lieutenant-General Vicente Danao.
The country's Commission on Elections indicated that despite long queues and problems with some voting machines, the initial tabulation of votes had gone well.
- Failure to connect -
For the liberal opposition, analyst Mark Thompson said there should be a period of soul searching and a broadening of its message beyond "good governance".
"They need to make clear that they're going to improve the lives of the average Filipino," said Thompson, who is director of the Southeast Asia Research Centre at the City University of Hong Kong.
For Marcos, the coming weeks and months will bring high expectations from poor supporters already angry at a string of post-dictatorship governments, which many believe had failed to materially improve their lives.
"He is yet to set out a coherent, detailed, plan for getting the Philippines' economy back on track after the devastation of the pandemic," said Eurasia Group analyst Peter Mumford.
Marcos will have to try to meet those expectations while keeping the support of several of the country's powerful political dynasties, who will expect patronage in return for delivering blocs of votes.
"One of the key watchpoints under his administration will be whether corruption and cronyism -- already notable risks in the Philippines -- worsen," said Mumford.
bur-arb/amj/cwl
Duterte popularity sweeps daughter to Philippines election win
Outgoing Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte could face international charges over his deadly drug war, but his daughter's thumping victory in the vice presidential race shows his popularity remains sky-high
(AFP/Ted ALJIBE) (Ted ALJIBE)
Cecil MORELLA Tue, May 10, 2022
Outgoing Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte could face international charges over his deadly drug war, but his daughter's thumping victory in the vice presidential race shows his popularity remains sky-high.
Sara Duterte secured more than half the votes in Monday's election, a ringing endorsement for the family name that has become a byword for brutality and impunity in the poverty-plagued country.
More than 6,200 people have officially died in Duterte's anti-narcotics campaign since he came to power in 2016, but rights groups estimate the true figure is in the tens of thousands.
While the deaths have been widely condemned and triggered an International Criminal Court probe, Duterte's swift brand of justice struck a chord with many Filipinos fed up with the bureaucracy, corruption and dysfunction that affects their daily lives.
That popularity has rubbed off on his daughter, who supporters see as a safe pair of hands to continue his legacy -- and protect him from potential criminal charges in the Philippines or abroad when he leaves office.
Sara Duterte's success in the election on Monday cements the family's place at the centre of politics for another six years and ensures the Duterte name stays on the list of powerful political dynasties.
With her running mate Ferdinand Marcos Junior capturing the presidency, the two offspring of authoritarian leaders have been elevated to the nation's highest elected positions.
On the campaign trail, they embraced many of the elder Duterte's policies, alarming human rights activists, journalists and religious leaders.
Duterte, 43, had once been tipped to try to succeed her father in the presidential palace as voter surveys last year put her well in front of other possible contenders, including Marcos Jr.
But she stunned political observers -- and apparently her dad -- by striking a deal with the son of the country's former dictator and instead running for the deputy's job.
When Duterte walked arm-in-arm with Marcos Jr at a society wedding near Manila last November, Filipinos knew a political marriage had also been sealed.
The arrangement also brought together several powerful families that control swathes of the Philippines and have the means to direct voters to support their chosen candidate.
"I think we would have had an entirely different race had Sara Duterte decided to run for the presidency -- probably Marcos would not have run at all," said political analyst Richard Heydarian, after a recent pre-election survey showed Marcos Jr on track to win big.
While her role as vice president will be largely ceremonial, it puts her within a heartbeat of the highest office and in pole position to run for president in six years' time.
She could also wield significant influence in the next administration.
The elder Duterte will be hoping so as he prepares to step down on June 30, making him fair game for prosecution.
- Quick temper -
Until now, Duterte's career has been in lockstep with her father, following him into law and then succeeding him as mayor of Davao City on the southern island of Mindanao.
Known for her quick temper -- she once repeatedly punched a court sheriff in front of TV cameras -- she also has a fondness for big motorbikes and tattoos.
She is married and has three children nicknamed Sharkie, Stingray and Stonefish.
Duterte entered politics in 2007, serving three years as vice mayor while her father was mayor of Davao -- the family stronghold.
They swapped positions for the next three years and she again succeeded him as mayor in 2016 when he won the presidency.
Analysts say Duterte is not a carbon copy of her father, describing her as a more moderate version of a man known for his foul-mouthed tirades.
Yet some had questioned her broad appeal to voters, saying she lacked the charisma and humour of her father -- key traits in a country where personality trumps policy.
Duterte has a fractious relationship with her dad, but has acted as first lady on some of his official trips overseas.
She defended him on the 2016 campaign trail after he sparked international outcry by joking about an Australian missionary who was raped and killed.
The younger Duterte disclosed in a since-deleted Instagram post: "Not a joke. I am a rape victim. But I will still vote for President Rodrigo Duterte."
cgm/amj/arb/qan
Boxing great Pacquiao gets knock out blow in Philippine presidential polls Allison JACKSON Tue, May 10, 2022 Manny Pacquiao, Philippine boxing legend, failed to hit the mark with voters
(AFP/Ted ALJIBE)
Boxing legend Manny Pacquiao quit the sport that lifted him out of poverty to rumble for the Philippines presidency, but his tough talk on drugs and crime failed to hit the mark with voters.
His bid for the top job started in typical bold style: a livestream broadcast of himself riding in a coach emblazoned with "Man of Destiny" through Manila's morning traffic to file his candidacy.
But his vow to jail corrupt politicians and arrest drug users -- despite having admitted using crystal meth and marijuana when he was a younger -- failed to deliver a knockout punch and he lost Monday's election by a huge margin.
An initial tally showed Pacquiao picked up fewer than four million votes, or 6.8 percent of votes counted.
That left him a distant third behind winner Ferdinand Marcos Junior, who got more than half the votes, and runner-up Leni Robredo.
The loss came as no surprise -- pre-election surveys showed Pacquiao had almost no chance of winning.
But the fervent evangelical Christian convert had talked up his chances of victory until the last moment.
"I believe there are more poor people than rich ones," Pacquiao told reporters on Monday as he voted in his southern home province of Sarangani.
"We want to assure them that the majority of the poor will unite to show the rich that there are more people suffering in poverty in this country," said Pacquiao, who lives in an enclave of billionaires and foreign ambassadors when he is in Manila.
The failed tilt for the country's highest elected office has cost Pacquiao more than just money and pride -- he also had to give up running for a second term in the celebrity-packed Senate, which he likely would have had a strong chance of winning.
In an interview with AFP in November, Pacquiao, a former congressman, ruled out a sporting comeback if he lost the presidential election.
"I'm already turning 43 years old, so it's enough for me, I'm done," said the father of five.
Pacquiao said he would instead grow fruit on a 20-hectare (49-acre) property in Sarangani.
"It's also quiet (there), I like that," he said.
- Deeply admired -
Pacquiao is deeply admired across the archipelago for his rise from desperate street kid to one of the greatest pound-for-pound fighters of all time.
But he has stirred controversy as a politician and devout Christian.
Pacquiao was a high profile supporter of Duterte's deadly drug war and push to restore the death penalty.
His credibility took a punch from his own admission of past drug use, while homophobic comments cost him a lucrative sponsorship deal with sportswear giant Nike.
Critics also accused the high-school dropout of lacking intellect and barely turning up to sessions in Congress and the Senate, which had raised questions about his ability to run the country of 110 million people.
And he risked valuable political capital last year in a public spat with Duterte that led to a deep fracture inside their political party.
Pacquiao announced his retirement from boxing in September, shortly before declaring his run for the presidency.
Asked when the star would concede defeat, a spokesperson said Pacquiao was "resting" after the months-long campaign and voting.
"Senator Pacquiao conveys his heartfelt thanks to the journalists and wishes you will continue to enjoy the freedom of expression."
amj/cgm/oho
After EU shuns Russia, will Moscow shut door to Syria humanitarian aid?
Humanitarian groups want all relevant political players to be part of discussions on Syria's future and aid drives. But after Russia is snubbed at a donor conference, will Syrians pay the price?
At this year's donor conference for Syria, many in the international community highlighted the urgent need to continue supporting Syrians
As Russia's war in Ukraine rages on, the EU hosted the sixth international donor conference for war-ravaged Syria, with the bloc's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warning that Syria should not be forgotten.
"Now it is Ukraine in the headlines. But don't give up on Syria," he said, highlighting how 11 years of war in the country has destroyed the lives of the people of Syria and resulted in 90% of Syrians continuing to live in poverty.
"The Russian war will increase food and energy prices and the situation in Syria will become worse,'' he added.
Russia shunned
Fifty-five countries and 22 international organizations, including the United Nations, EU institutions and EU member states, took part in the donor conference that raised $6.7 billion dollars for Syria and its neighbors' sheltering refugees, compared to $6.4 billion last year.
The Russian Federation — a key player in the conflict in Syria — was not invited to the conference.
"The EU has invited partners who have a genuine interest in contributing to world peace. Russia has proven not to have this, with its illegal invasion of Ukraine," Dan Stoenescu, head of the EU Delegation to Syria, told DW.
Russia has been a strong ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since 2011, when the conflict began, and continues to support the Syrian regime's military operations. While Moscow has repeatedly said that its actions target only terrorist activities in Syria, the UN has accused Russia of its direct involvement in bombing civilian areas and committing war crimes together with the Syrian regime.
The EU's foreign policy chief stressed that Tuesday's donor event is for both Russia and the Syrian regime to understand that all countries participating in this conference will not relax sanctions nor normalize relations until there are "credible commitments for political reforms" in Syria.
Lifeline to Syira's northwest
Humanitarian organizations fear that Russia's isolation from the donor conference could be detrimental to humanitarian aid efforts, especially in northwestern Syria.
At a US House of Representatives subcommittee meeting in March this year, humanitarian aid advocates highlighted how Russia could close Syria's last UN-mandated humanitarian aid channel, in retaliation to tense situations with the West over the war in Ukraine.
The UN Security Council had administered four cross-border humanitarian aid channels into Syria in 2014. However, Russia and China used their UN veto powers to discontinue three of these channels. Moscow has always argued that humanitarian aid which does not pass through the Syrian regime's channels should be discontinued.
Currently, only one UN-mandated cross-border humanitarian aid channel — the Bab al-Hawa crossing in northwest Syria, has been allowed to remain open until July 2022, after Russia made a compromise in the UN Security Council last year.
This crossing in the Idlib region of Syria is controlled by Syrian rebel factions and the jihadist alliance Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Some 4 million people live in this region and more than 2.6 million are internally displaced Syrians who are dependent on humanitarian aid delivered by the UN and UN-backed NGOs through Turkey.
Juliette Touma, regional chief of advocacy for UNICEF in the Middle East, told DW that the renewal of this border crossing, to deliver humanitarian aid via Turkey, is a lifeline for nearly 1 million children who live in the northwest of Syria and who rely (almost exclusively) on cross-border assistance.
"What is key for UNICEF is to be able to reach every child in need wherever they are, regardless of who controls the region," she added.
Amid fears of Moscow closing this crossing post in July, the international humanitarian NGO Human Appeal also highlighted that there is no "secure" alternative aid in Syria's northwest.
"There is currently no feasible alternative to humanitarian aid reaching the millions of vulnerable people in Northwest Syria. The existing cross-border model can be trusted by both donors and beneficiaries. If this model is not renewed in July that will leave millions of Syrian civilians with no secure aid corridor alternative," Raya Homsi, institutional funding manager at Human Appeal, said in a statement.
However, the EU's foreign policy chief was optimistic — and said Russia would not consider halting the aid crossing since it would put more than 1 million people's lives in a dire situation. "I think Russia will not do it. They should not do it," he told reporters in Brussels.
Stoenescu, the head of the EU Delegation to Syria, also told DW: "The EU will continue advocating for humanitarian exemptions, opening and de-politicization of cross border operations."
Meanwhile, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN, said she discussed with the deputy foreign minister of Turkey ways to move forward with the cross-border resolution in Idlib. She also added that she plans to focus the UN Security Council's attention on getting a resolution passed before 10 July.
"Millions of Syrians are dependent on this cross-border aid and, while we have supported cross-line aid coming from Syrian regime-controlled areas, that is not going to be sufficient to provide for the broader needs of the Syrian people it complements," she told reporters in Brussels Tuesday.
Humanitarian aid reaches a rebel-held area in northwest Syria through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing, which the UN Security Council approved in 2014, three years after the start of the Syrian conflict
'Empower local communities'
Aside from addressing concerns about humanitarian aid channels and pledging their financial commitment to support Syria, Imran Riza, the UN's resident coordinator and humanitarian coordinator for Syria, highlighted that countries should balance lifesaving assistance with early recovery and resilience programs to help the people of Syria.
"We should be trying to help people produce their own food to be less dependent on assistance and help them attain a bit more control over their own lives and thus dignity," he told DW.
"The main thing that we keep hearing from people is that they need jobs, livelihoods to sustain themselves and take care of their families. So assistance should focus on empowering local communities."
"In a sense, it's a win-win because such recovery assistance is the only thing that will also reduce the trend of increasing humanitarian needs and costs while responding to the stated priorities of affected Syrians," he added.
