French health workers protest over pay ahead of polls

Tue, June 7, 2022


Health workers demonstrated in cities across France on Tuesday to demand higher pay and more staff for services stretched to breaking point, just days before the country votes in parliamentary elections.

Although recently re-elected President Emmanuel Macron has ordered a probe into which emergency units need immediate help with people in the sector warning there is no time to lose.

"Not a single department is spared, our public hospitals are in the process of dying for lack of resources," said Pierre Wach, head of the CGT union in eastern city Strasbourg.

Protests began at hospitals in the morning Tuesday and continued at the health ministry in Paris in the afternoon, where staff, some wearing white medical coats, brandished placards with messages such as "Hire more and pay us more, it's urgent!".

Casualty workers' group Samu-Urgences de France found in a May survey that at least 120 accident and emergency departments nationwide had already cut back on work or were preparing to do so after years of Covid-19 strain.

Macron told regional newspapers Friday that his review, led by the group's chief Francois Braun, would identify "where there is need, emergency department by emergency department, ambulance service by ambulance service, region by region".

But opposition politicians and unions have accused him of playing for time until after the legislative elections on June 12 and 19 -- as some polls show the president's absolute majority could be at risk.

"It's past time for inquiries," Laurent Berger, head of the powerful CFDT trade union confederation, wrote in left-wing daily Liberation, calling for "urgent talks on how staff are organised" as hospitals were "almost knocked out".

Braun said last week he would not craft "yet another report" but "write the prescription" for hospitals in need.

Among measures he has already suggested to newly-installed Health Minister Brigitte Bourguignon are better pay for night and weekend work or -- more controversially -- a system for filtering calls to the emergency services to identify the most severe.

"We have to switch to crisis management mode to get through the summer," Thomas Mesnier, an MP loyal to Macron who is also an emergency doctor, wrote in the JDD weekly.

Some emergency workers have warned that a summer heatwave, which in past years has proved deadly for elderly people, or a new flare-up of Covid could push hospitals into chaos.

burs/tgb/bp

Dakar Biennale: Rwandan director Rugamba brings masks to life

Through a mask played by French actress Nathalie Vairac, director Dorcy Rugamba traces the history of the vestiges of the colonial period and raises the debate on the restitution of African heritage, during Dakar Biennale.

US Opposes Dictators? Yes! Except When It Supports Them


By Sebastian Smith
06/07/22 

Dictators are bad, except, well, when they're kind of OK: welcome to the moral gymnastics that Joe Biden is only the latest US president to embrace in a complicated world.

Biden's decision to exclude the far-left leaders of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela from this week's regional Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles is being touted as US defense of democracy in action.

"We just don't believe dictators should be invited and... and so we don't regret that," White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said. "The president will stand by his principle."

Except when he doesn't.

Biden's determination to bar the trio of self-proclaimed Latin American socialist revolutionaries from US soil came at the expense of a rift with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a key partner who snubbed the Los Angeles gathering in protest.

US President Joe Biden snubbs some dictators, but interacts with others

 Photo: AFP / MANDEL NGAN

But there's a whole lot more flexibility when it comes to the other side of the world, where Biden is preparing to visit Saudi Arabia and meet de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The prince, often referred to as MBS, presides over a country with no elections, few rights for women, or many other norms considered basic in the West. In 2018, according to US intelligence, MBS orchestrated the gruesome murder and dismemberment of a prominent dissident, Jamal Khashoggi, who was both a US resident and columnist for The Washington Post.

As a presidential candidate, Biden said the brazen assassination made Saudi Arabia a "pariah."

Now, though, he's ready to meet with the alleged murder mastermind.

Why? Because that would be good for the United States, Jean-Pierre said.

A handout picture provided by the official Saudi Press Agency shows Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh in 2021 Photo: SPA via AFP

"If he determines that it's in the interest of the United States to engage with a foreign leader and that such an engagement can deliver results, then he'll do so," she said.

Saudi Arabia "has been a strategic partner of the United States for nearly 80 years."

The contradictory messaging is causing a stir, particularly against the backdrop of Biden's frequent, passionate argument that his presidency marks an "inflection point" in a titanic struggle between the world's democracies and a growing band of ruthless autocracies.

Traditional Russian wooden nesting dolls depicting former US President Donald Trump (L) and Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) 

Photo: AFP / Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV

But really there's nothing new.

Back in 1939, President Franklin Roosevelt supposedly commented that Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza "may be a son of a bitch, but he's our son of a bitch."

Other accounts ascribe the phrase to different US presidents and different dictators. The point, though, is clear: the White House has always been able to hold its nose with one hand, while using the other to embrace distasteful partners.

US support for right-wing leaders across Latin America during the Cold War struggle against Soviet influence was infamous.

In Asia, the United States long battled communist regimes yet there too displays flexibility when it suits. At an ASEAN regional summit last month, Biden shunned Myanmar while inviting less-than-democratic leaders from the likes of Cambodia and Vietnam.

Then there was Biden's predecessor Donald Trump.

The Republican railed against China yet became friendly with Russia's Vladimir Putin. Trump was also chummy with the full range of unelected Middle Eastern rulers, not least in Saudi Arabia, which he chose for his first foreign trip as president.

"Where's my favorite dictator?" a jovial Trump once called out at a 2019 summit while waiting for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi to show up.

Robert Guttman, who teaches politics at Johns Hopkins University, said the consistent inconsistency boils down to "cynical" self-interest.

Facing the risk of devastating losses for Democrats in November midterm elections, Biden is desperate to get soaring domestic fuel prices down, which is what leads him to the Saudis.

And with US-based Latin American communities often fiercely opposed to communism, Biden has little room to maneuver when it comes to the likes of Cuba.

"All you have to think about is Florida in 2024 and they need their votes," Guttman said.

Guttman said the United States does historically try to support democracy -- a fight that Ukraine's war with Russia has put in dramatic focus.

But with exceptions.

"We talk about great ideals but we're more pragmatic when it comes to reality," he said.

"The bottom line is we need oil and we support people who have the oil. For natural resources we need, we bend our ideals, and in an election campaign the president's all over the board."

Pony to plate: Horsemeat trafficking 'gang' on trial in France


Tue, 7 June 2022



Horse traders, veterinarians, merchants and meat industry professionals were among 18 people who went on trial in Marseille on Tuesday accused of running a vast European trafficking ring that led to the slaughter of hundreds of horses unfit for human consumption.

The case is the result of an investigation dating back to 2013 that revealed anomalies in the identification certificates of draft horses, blood horses, sport horses, race horses and even ponies who ended up in butcher shops in France.

The main defendants – from France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Spain – are charged with "organised fraud" and "forgery and deception of goods that endanger human health”. They face up to 10 years in prison.

At the top of the pile is well-known Belgian horse trader Jean-Marc Decker, who prosecutors say set up an organised gang of illegal horsemeat traders that saw as many as 4,700 horses exported to slaughterhouses in the south of France between 2010 and 2013.

Devastated owners

At least 150 animals were acquired from private individuals who were assured their horses would be sent to educational farms or centres for handicapped children, and used for trail riding or horse therapy.

After being taken from their owners, the old horses were allegedly exported to Belgium and issued with fraudulent Belgian, German or Dutch health certificates before being being sold on to French slaughterhouses.

Aline Oudin, from Meurthe-et-Moselle, testified that a recruiter duped her into handing over her 28-year-old horse with promises the animal would enjoy a happy retirement on a quiet farm.

Six months prison for selling horsemeat as beef

French police question 20 in suspected new horsemeat scandal

“I was deeply hurt … this horse was part of the family,” Oudin said after learning her horse had been killed. “These dealers are bandits, but I blame the veterinarians who were a big part of the trafficking operation.”

Animals that have been infected with parasites or received certain medical treatments are considered to be unfit for human consumption.

Oudin’s horse, who was slaughtered in Alès, had been treated with insect repellent, deworming and anti-inflammatory treatments.

False records

It was in Alès, a town in the Gard department, where authorities first got wind of the trafficking operation after a veterinary inspection of slaughterhouses found that several horses had false medical records and examination passports.

A wholesale company in Alès that supplied the meat on to as many as 80 butchers in the south of France is also being prosecuted for “indifference” in its alleged failures to respect sanitary protocols.

It’s understood the company, Equi'd Sud d'Alès, falsely believed the meat was of French origin.

Also among the accused is a Belgian veterinarian said to have facilitated the traffic ring by providing 154 blank documents to traders and backdating medication treatment sheets.

Two French veterinaries, meanwhile, are charged with complicity for allegedly turning a blind eye during controls at the slaughterhouses in Alès.

The case will be tried until 24 June, and will be followed by two other further court actions set for January and September 2023.

French astronaut Pesquet calls for European space independence

by Issam Ahmed

Thomas Pesquet, 44, recently completed his second deployment to the International Space Station on the NASA-SpaceX Crew-2 mission, and has arguably the highest profile among the European Astronaut Corps.

French astronaut Thomas Pesquet on Tuesday urged Europe to seize the momentum created by its newfound diplomatic unity and "start moving now" to develop its own human spaceflight capacity.

The charismatic engineer and pilot, 44, recently completed his second deployment to the International Space Station on the NASA-SpaceX Crew-2 mission, and has arguably the highest profile among the European Astronaut Corps, in addition to being a celebrity in his native France.

Though he has long extolled international cooperation in space and remains in the mix to possibly go to the Moon as part of the NASA-led Artemis missions, Pesquet said it was vital for Europe's leaders to give the European Space Agency (ESA) the funding and mandate it needs to launch its own people, too.

"That topic is gaining momentum now," he told AFP at NASA headquarters in Washington.

"In the late eighties and early nineties, we had this goal of becoming more independent as far as space access for humans, and then it didn't pan out. Several things happened, Germany had to reunite, they had to redirect budgets etc."

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has now unified Europe's once fractious member states, and Pesquest said he hoped ESA member countries will capitalize on the continent's new clout.

"These topics like European diplomacy, European defense are coming back on the table, and part of that process is also that independent human access to space," he argued.

Currently, only the United States, Russia and China have independent launch capacity, while India is looking to acquire the same.

Thomas Pesquet pushed back against the idea the rise of the commercial space sector was making national space agencies obsolete.

One potential option for ESA is launching crew on a spaceship fixed to the Ariane 6 rocket, which is currently under development and is expected to make its debut launch from French Guiana by the end of this year.

"We have to start moving now, because the development cycles are long. You don't want this to happen in 15 to 20 years," he said.

Commercial space benefits and challenges

Pesquet was also keen to push back against the idea that the rise of the commercial space sector was making national space agencies obsolete.

"There's a general perception among the public that the private sector, or Elon Musk, or SpaceX, are calling the shots, which is not true at all."

In fact, said Pesquet, private industry had always been involved—from building the Space Shuttle to Ariane rockets. "What we've done now is give them more autonomy and say, 'Hey, we need the service. You provide the service at an efficient cost,' which they've been delivering."

Musk might grab headlines for his bombastic announcements about colonizing Mars, but "the small print says, when all the agencies put together the budget to go to Mars, then the private sector is going to deliver the hardware," said Pesquet.

While the private sector was bringing a new level of speed and innovation to the table, Pesquet said there were some challenges—for example in working with the private, ticket-paying citizens now visiting the ISS with increasing frequency.

"If you mix up professional astronauts... and the spaceflight participants, obviously, it kind of impacts the work that we're doing, because we have to take care of them, because they're less trained, they have less experience on the board," he said, something agencies will need to consider moving forward.


Explore furtherSpaceX's next crew arrives in Florida for Earth Day launch

© 2022 AFP

Colombia shares unprecedented images of treasure-laden wreck

Hervé BAR
Tue, June 7, 2022


Colombia's army has shared unprecedented images of the legendary San Jose galleon shipwreck, hidden underwater for three centuries and believed to have been carrying riches worth billions of dollars in today's money.

Four observation missions using a remotely operated vehicle were sent to the wreck at a depth of almost 950 meters (3,100 feet) off Colombia's Caribbean coast, the army said in a statement late Monday.

These missions, carried out by the navy under the supervision of the culture ministry, found the galleon untouched by "human intervention."

Cannons partially covered by mud are visible alongside porcelain crockery, pottery, glass bottles and also gold pieces.

A part of the bow can be clearly seen covered in algae and shellfish, as well as the remains of the frame of the hull.

Authorities said they had also discovered two more shipwrecks during their observation mission -- a colonial-era galleon and a schooner from the post-colonial period.

"Thanks to the technological equipment and the Colombian navy's work, we managed to capture images with a level of precision that's never been seen before," said President Ivan Duque.

He said the wreck was "kept intact and protected with a view towards a future retrieval."

When that happens, though, Colombia will face a challenge from Spain and an indigenous group in Bolivia to determine who keeps the bounty.
- Lost for 300 years -


The San Jose galleon was owned by the Spanish crown when it was sunk by the British navy near Cartagena in 1708.

Only a handful of its 600-strong crew survived.

It was heading back from the New World to the court of King Philip V of Spain.

At the time, it was laden with treasures estimated to be worth billions of dollars at current rates.

Before its discovery in 2015, it was long sought after by treasure hunters.

Experts believe it contains at least 200 tons of gold, silver and emeralds.

Colombia considers wrecks found in its territorial waters to be part of its cultural heritage, meaning the contents cannot be sold.

Spain insists that the bounty is theirs since it was aboard a Spanish ship, while Bolivia's Qhara Qhara nation says it should get the treasures as the Spanish forced the community's people to mine the precious metals.

When the wreck was discovered, then Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos lauded it as "the most precious treasure ever found in the history of the world."


He had proposed to finance the recovery mission with the proceeds from selling part of the find, but Duque put a stop to that to ensure the entirety of the wreck would remain in Colombia.

Colombian authorities have announced their intention to create a museum of shipwrecks that would be "a source of pride for Colombia, the Caribbean and the world."

Recovering the wreck presents a technological and scientific challenge due to its depth.

Authorities have identified another 13 sites off the coast of Cartagena that they want to explore in search of other shipwrecks.

 VIDEO

Centuries-old shipwrecks containing gold coins found off Colombia

Colombia discovers two historical shipwrecks in Caribbean

Artifacts found in the wreckage of Spanish galleon San Jose

Mon, June 6, 2022

BOGOTA (Reuters) - Colombian naval officials conducting underwater monitoring of the long-sunken San Jose galleon have discovered two other historical shipwrecks nearby, President Ivan Duque said on Monday.

The San Jose galleon, thought by historians to be carrying treasure that would be worth billions of dollars, sank in 1708 near Colombia's Caribbean port of Cartagena.

Its potential recovery has been the subject of decades of litigation.

A remotely operated vehicle reached 900 meters depth, Duque and naval officials said in a video statement, allowing new videos of the wreckage.

The vehicle also discovered two other nearby wrecks - a colonial boat and a schooner thought to be from around the same period as Colombia's war for independence from Spain, some 200 years ago.

"We now have two other discoveries in the same area, that show other options for archaeological exploration," navy commander Admiral Gabriel Perez said. "So the work is just beginning."

The images offer the best-yet view of the treasure that was aboard the San Jose - including gold ingots and coins, cannons made in Seville in 1655 and an intact Chinese dinner service.

Archaeologists from the navy and government are working to determine the origin of the plates based on inscriptions, the officials said.

"The idea is to recover it and to have sustainable financing mechanisms for future extractions," President Ivan Duque said. "In this way we protect the treasure, the patrimony of the San Jose galleon."

(Reporting by Julia Symmes Cobb. Editing by Gerry Doyle)

New video shows gold coins and treasure from "holy grail" of shipwrecks

CBSNews
Tue, June 7, 2022

New video shows gold coins and other treasure scattered around a long-lost shipwreck off the coast of Colombia — as well as two other historical shipwrecks nearby, officials said Monday. Maritime experts consider the wreck of the San Jose to be the "holy grail" of Spanish colonial shipwrecks.

President Ivan Duque and naval officials said on Monday that a remotely operated vehicle reached 900 meters below the surface of the ocean, showing new images of the wreckage.

The video shows the best-yet view of the treasure that was aboard the San Jose — including gold ingots and coins, cannons made in Seville in 1655 and an intact Chinese dinner service, Reuters reported.

The news agency reported the remotely operated vehicle also discovered two other shipwrecks in the area, including a schooner thought to be from about two centuries ago.

"We now have two other discoveries in the same area, that show other options for archaeological exploration," navy commander Admiral Gabriel Perez said, according to Reuters.

Colombia was a colony of Spain when the San Jose was sunk in 1708, and gold from across South America, especially modern-day Peru and Bolivia, was stored in the fort of its coastal city, Cartagena, before being shipped back to Europe.

The Colombian government considers it a "national treasure" and wants it to be displayed in a future museum to be built in Cartagena.

The Spanish San Jose Galleon sunk in the Caribbean in 1708 after a battle with the British. New data suggests such shipwrecks could reveal the history of hurricanes in the region. / Credit: Samuel Scott

According to a presidential decree released earlier this year, companies or individuals interested in excavating the ship will have to sign a "contract" with the state and submit a detailed inventory of their finds to the government as well as plans for handling the goods.

The uber-loot, which experts estimate to include at least 200 tons of gold, silver and emeralds, will be a point of pride for Colombia, Vice President and top diplomat Marta Lucia Ramirez said in a statement. The treasure could be worth billions of dollars if ever recovered.

"The sums of wealth are invaluable, and the responsibility of the protégés has already been extracted, contributing to the history of Colombia, the Caribbean and the world," she said.

Long the daydream of treasure hunters worldwide, the San Jose galleon was sunk by the British Navy on the night of June 7, 1708, off Cartagena de Indias.

The San Jose was at the time carrying gold, silver and precious stones which were to be delivered from the Spanish colonies in Latin America to the court of King Philip V.

Only a few of the San Jose's 600-member crew survived the wreck.

"It makes it very touchy because one is not supposed to intervene in war graves," Justin Leidwanger, an archaeologist at Stanford University who studies ancient shipwrecks, told Live Science in 2015. "Can you pluck treasure off the seabed without disturbing a war grave? I doubt you can. But these are the sort of discussions that will be had."

At the end of 2015, then-Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos announced the discovery of the exact location of the wreck, which was confirmed by the ship's unique bronze cannons with dolphin engravings.

Colombia has said it will cost about $70 million to carry out a full salvage operation on the wreckage, which is at a depth of between 2,000 and 3,200 feet.

Spain says the wreck is its own, as a ship of state; and an indigenous group in Bolivia, the Qhara Qhara, says the treasure belongs to them, since their ancestors were forced to mine it from what was in the 1500s the world's largest silver mine.

Artifacts found in the wreckage of Spanish galleon San Jose are seen in this undated handout photo provided by the Colombian Ministry of Culture on December 5, 2015. / Credit: REUTERS/Colombian Ministry of Culture/Handout via Reuters

Stephen Colbert Names And Shames Rep. Louie Gohmert As ‘Dumbest Man Alive’



Ed Mazza
Tue, June 7, 2022

Stephen Colbert doled out a rare honor on Monday night, giving one Republican lawmaker a new title, but it’s one he probably won’t be putting on a resume anytime soon.

The “Late Show” host tore into Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas), who last week complained that Republicans get treated unfairly when they lie and pointing specifically to the arrest of former Donald Trump adviser Peter Navarro. Navarro was indicted on contempt charges after refusing to comply with a subpoena from the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

But Gohmert saw it from another perspective.

“It actually puts an exclamation point on the fact that we have a two-tired justice system. If you’re a Republican, you can’t even lie to Congress or lie to an FBI agent or they’re coming after you,” he griped.

“Wait! Hold on a second, we’re getting more breaking news!” Colbert interjected. “This is just in. Is this confirmed? He’s just confirmed it: Louie Gohmert remains the dumbest man alive.”

Colbert’s monologue also featured an “EW!” moment about Gohmert:



See more of Colbert’s takedown of Navarro and Gohmert in his Monday night monologue:

Fertilizers Piling Up at Brazil Ports Signal Further Price Drop



Tatiana Freitas and Tarso Veloso
Tue, June 7, 2022, 

(Bloomberg) -- A glut of fertilizers at the biggest Brazilian ports signals that the price of the nutrients may have to drop further before farmers start buying.

In Paranagua, private warehouses reached their maximum storage capacity of 3.5 million tons, according to Luiz Teixeira da Silva, Paranagua’s operations director. A terminal operated by VLI Logistics, one of the two at Santos port that store fertilizers, is also full, according to people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named as the information isn’t public.

Fertilizer prices soared to records after the war in Ukraine sparked fears of a shortage. Brazil imports nearly 85% of its fertilizer and Russia is the main origin. As supplies have normalized, prices have declined over the past weeks, but farmers still aren’t buying. They are waiting for further price cuts, according to Marina Cavalcante, an analyst at Bloomberg’s Green Markets.

“Farmers have the expectation that prices will keep falling after declines last week and in the previous one,” she said. “So they’ll wait for further decreases to buy.”

Brazil is the world’s biggest shipper of several crops, including soybeans. Farmers can delay their purchases until the eve of the soybean seeding in September. But if they all wait too long, a last-minute rush could lead to inland transportation bottlenecks that may leave some of them empty-handed.

What’s the Crypto Regulation Endgame?

When the crypto crisis hits (and it soon will), the U.S. will be forced to strip away the cloak of anonymity that facilitates criminal acts and which gives crypto its allure

Kenneth Rogoff - 
MarketWatch



© Getty Images/iStockphoto

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (Project Syndicate)—With cryptocurrency prices plummeting as central banks start to raise interest rates, many are wondering if this is the beginning of the end of the bubble.

Perhaps not yet. But a higher opportunity cost of money disproportionately drives down the prices of assets whose main uses lie in the future. Ultralow interest rates flattered crypto, and young investors are now getting a taste of what happens when interest rates go up.

A more interesting question is what will happen when governments finally get serious about regulating bitcoin and its brethren. Of the major economies, only China has so far begun to do so. Most policy makers have instead tried to change the topic by talking about central bank-issued digital currencies (CBDCs).

But this is something of a non sequitur.President Biden’s cryptocurrency executive order may have produced more questions than it’s answered: What’s a central bank digital currency? How is it different from crypto? And why hasn’t the Fed introduced a digital dollar? WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains. Photo composite: David Fang A growing problem

Although CBDCs are likely to include privacy features for small transactions, larger transactions will almost certainly require individuals to reveal their identity. In contrast, one of the biggest attractions of private cryptocurrencies is the opportunity they offer to bypass governments. True, cryptocurrency transactions are completely traceable through the blockchain ledger, but users typically set up accounts under pseudonyms and are therefore difficult to identify without other information, which is expensive to obtain.

Some economists naively argue that there is no particular urgency to regulate bitcoin and the like, because cryptocurrencies are difficult and costly to use for transactions. Try telling that to policy makers in developing economies, where crypto has become a significant vehicle for avoiding taxes, regulations, and capital controls.
Investing in some advanced-economy crypto vehicles is in a sense no different from investing in conflict diamonds.

For poorer countries with limited state capacity, crypto is a growing problem. Citizens don’t need to be computer whizzes to circumvent the authorities. They can just access one of several simple “off-chain” exchanges. Although cryptocurrency transactions intermediated by a third party are in principle traceable, the exchanges are based in advanced economies. In practice, this makes the information virtually inaccessible to poor-country authorities under most circumstances.Money laundering, tax evasion

But isn’t this just crypto fulfilling its promise of helping citizens bypass corrupt, inefficient, and untrustworthy governments? Maybe, but, just like $100 bills, cryptocurrencies in the developing world are as likely to be used by malign actors as by ordinary citizens.

For example, Venezuela is a major player in crypto markets, partly because expatriates use them to send money back and forth without it being seized by the country’s corrupt regime. But crypto is also surely used by the Venezuelan military in its drug-smuggling operations, not to mention by wealthy, politically connected individuals subject to financial sanctions.

Given that the United States currently maintains financial sanctions on more than a dozen countries, hundreds of entities, and thousands of individuals, crypto is a natural refuge.

One reason why advanced-economy regulators have been slow to act is the view that as long as cryptocurrency-related problems mainly affect the rest of the world, these problems are not their concern. Apparently buying into the idea that cryptocurrencies are essentially assets in which to invest—and that any transaction’s value is unimportant—the regulators are more worried about domestic investor protection and financial stability.Crypto = conflict diamonds

But economic theory has long demonstrated that the value of any money ultimately depends on its potential underlying uses. The biggest investors in crypto may be in advanced economies, but the uses—and harms—have so far been mainly in emerging markets and developing economies. One might even argue that investing in some advanced-economy crypto vehicles is in a sense no different from investing in conflict diamonds.

Advanced-economy governments will most likely find that the problems with cryptocurrencies eventually come home to roost. When that happens, they will be forced to institute a broad-based ban on digital currencies that do not permit users’ identities to be easily traced (unless, that is, technological advances ultimately strip away all vestiges of anonymity, in which case cryptocurrencies’ prices will collapse on their own). The ban would certainly have to extend to financial institutions and businesses, and would likely also include some restrictions on individuals.

Such a step would sharply undercut today’s cryptocurrency prices by reducing liquidity. Of course, restrictions will be more effective the more countries apply them, but universal implementation is not required for significant local impact.Stiff lobbying to prevent regulation

Can some version of a ban be implemented? As China has demonstrated, it is relatively easy to shutter the crypto exchanges that the vast majority of people use for trading digital currencies. It is more difficult to prevent “on-chain” transactions, as the underlying individuals are harder to identify. Ironically, an effective ban on 21st-century crypto might also require phasing out (or at least scaling back) the much older device of paper currency, because cash is by far the most convenient way for people to “on-ramp” funds into their digital wallets without being easily detected.

Just to be clear, I am not suggesting that all blockchain applications should be constrained. For example, regulated stablecoins, underpinned by a central-bank balance sheet, can still thrive, but there needs to be a straightforward legal mechanism for tracing a user’s identity if needed.

When, if ever, might stiffer cryptocurrency regulation actually happen? Absent a crisis, it could take many decades, especially with major crypto players pouring huge sums into lobbying, much as the financial sector did in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis. But it probably won’t take nearly that long. Unfortunately, the crypto crisis is likely to come sooner rather than later.

Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics and public policy at Harvard University, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. He is co-author of “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” (Princeton University Press, 2011) and author of “The Curse of Cash” (Princeton University Press, 2016).More on crypto regulation

Bipartisan crypto bill would have CFTC oversee bitcoin, ether and most other digital assets

Consumers report losing $1 billion in crypto to scammers since 2021, FTC study says

From Baron’s: Crypto’s Wild West Days May Be Coming to an End With New Bipartisan Senate Bill