Strange objects in the sky

Rafia Zakaria

Published February 15, 2023 

The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.

IT all began with the Chinese spy balloon. After allowing it to fly for several days over US territory, the American military finally shot down over the country’s territorial waters what it said was a surveillance device. Undoubtedly egged on by Republican furore, the White House has come to take a hard line. Almost around the same time as the balloon (whose progress was being livestreamed on YouTube) was shot down, the US also cancelled Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s scheduled trip to China.

In addition, the United States announced that balloons of a similar type had been seen flying over India, Taiwan, Japan and some other places. They are, the US State Department now says, part of a new ‘campaign’ of spy balloons being released by China. For its part, Beijing maintains that the object was a ‘weather balloon’, and that US balloons entered Chinese airspace 10 times last year, which the US denies.

All of the above could simply be grandstanding between a superpower and a superpower wannabe were it not for what has happened in American and Canadian airspace of late. Since last Friday, at least three more ‘unidentified flying objects’ have been detected over North American airspace. The first was initially seen flying along the coast of Alaska. US F-22 fighter aircraft were scrambled to pursue it and shoot it down near the Arctic. This object was said to be silver-grey in colour and about the size of a small car. According to reports, the object did not appear to be propelled by a motor or any other device but was ‘floating’ in the atmosphere.

Then on Saturday, another object, smaller than but similar in shape to the Chinese spy balloon, was shot down over Canada’s Yukon territory by US fighter aircraft after the approval of the Canadian prime minister. On Sunday, another object was detected over the Great Lakes region and shot down over Lake Huron in Michigan. This object was reportedly hexagonal in shape. The US has not blamed China directly for the three ‘objects’, but given that they appeared so soon following the Chinese spy balloon (confirmed by Beijing) the implication is that these may all be a part of the same campaign to collect sensitive data about the United States and its military installations. Beyond obtaining surveillance information, the objects, if at all they are Chinese, could also be decoys meant to gauge just how long any intruding craft would have before being shot down by US fighter jets.

It is not the first time ‘unspecified flying objects’ have been observed over the US.

In the case of the Chinese spy balloon, the delay in shooting it down was chalked up to the fact that it was flying over populated areas and any US missile used to shoot it down would have a wide debris field, causing human casualties and property damage on the ground. Of the three objects shot down lately, nearly all appeared to be flying higher than the usual altitude. The ones flying over Alaska and the Yukon were considered “a danger to civilian aircraft” and therefore a priority for elimination.

All controversies have a political dimension. In the case of the United States, the virulently anti-China stance of the Trump/ Make America Great Again adherents means that there is little room to take Chinese intrusions (or even alleged Chinese intrusions) lightly. This could be the reason why the Democratic-controlled White House has decided to adopt a very hard line towards any ‘unspecified flying objects’. This is in addition to the fact that Americans have a very peculiar territorial psychology. Unlike the rest of the world, which has to contend with several neighbours that may be friendly or hostile, the US has oceans on its east, west and part of its south and land borders with just two countries. This means that when any sort of object known to belong to a foreign country intrudes actual American airspace, the reaction of shock is greater than that which would be generated in other parts of the world.

It is not the first time ‘unspecified flying objects’ have been observed over the United States. At the end of last year, the Pentagon finally came out and told everyone that such objects have been seen over American airspace or by military aircraft numerous times over the past several decades. Most have no explanation and have varying descriptions and are perhaps not unlike the ones seen recently. It does not appear that the US has chosen to shoot them down in all cases, making the recent reaction one that signifies a new zero tolerance stance that was not seen before.

There are of course kooky theories about what these unidentified flying objects are. America has always had groups that believe in aliens and alien spacecraft. Naturally, online forums devo­ted to this topic are overflowing with theories. Many posit that it is new and more sensitive technology that has enabled better detection, and now that we have achieved this level of technological sophistication, it will allow humans to come in contact with life on other planets. After all, if humans can send rovers to Mars, perhaps it is not out of the question that other living creatures could send exploratory missions to Earth. Adherents of shows like Ancient Aliens claim that humans, the ancient Egyptians for instance, did have contact with non-human beings, which allowed them to build stunning structures like the pyramids.

The truth of the matter, at least about the UFOs shot down over the weekend, is that no one knows. While it is possible that the US government has some idea, it appears unlikely that it would allow conjecture if it could lay the issue to rest for a very curious and transfixed American population. They, and everyone else in the world, expected 2023 to be an extraordinary year, but contact with aliens was likely not on anyone’s list of predictions.

Published in Dawn

PAKISTAN

Rule of the rich

Aasim Sajjad Akhtar Published February 17, 2023 

The writer teaches at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.


THE IMF issues commandments, and our finance czars comply. The most recent iteration of this merry-go-round saw the government going through the motions of farcical parliamentary legislation to levy yet more indirect taxes on a helpless populace. No need to whisper it: this is a banana republic.

Debate over whether the khakis, bureaucrats, the moneyed political class or donors are most responsible is moot. None of them are interested in rocking the boat. The increase in the GST — not to mention another increase in natural gas and fuel prices — confirms that creditors only want their money back; bureaucrats and bourgeois politicians are ever ready and willing to push the burden of deficit onto the working masses, and the khakis – they remain largely untouchable.

All the shenanigans will only result in a measly tranche of $1.2 billion, almost all of which will go straight back out of our coffers to meet existing debt repayments. IMF monies will presumably open up the way for bilateral funds, which is to say that the best-case scenario is more debt followed by more austerity.

In sum, the downward spiral shows no sign of relenting. Global credit rating agencies have just downgraded us to CCC-. Inflation is projected at 33 per cent through the first half of the fiscal year. Neither the government nor the IMF concerns itself with publishing unemployment figures these days, because who cares about the livelihoods of working people?

We trundle along towards a real ‘nazuk daur’.

Many commentators are asking how long this can continue. There is no sense that economic hardship for the numb masses will soon translate into mobilisation on the streets. Indeed, the most viable short-term prognosis is that economy, society and polity will continue to implode.

But do not expect this state of suspended animation to last forever. Unless there is fundamental transformation of the debt-fuelled formal economy, default and/or stagflation will hit us soon. Lest anyone has forgotten, ours is an exceedingly youthful population; 150 million young people cannot bide time forever through illicit/informal means and/or the gig economy.

So we trundle along towards a genuine nazuk daur (critical period). I am not talking about the one which our (predominantly uniformed) ruling class has been threatening us with since 1947 — the basis for the obsolete militarised, rentier state logic that finally appears to be running aground.

The truth is that this logic never worked for the vast majority in this country; it is just that the entrenched political-economic order is now combining with demographic pressures and ecological meltdown to generate a perfect storm.

But there is still one big absence here — that of a meaningful, popular political alternative that can actually author a different script. Ours is not a technocratic problem which can be fixed if the right minds are able to design ‘good’ policy. We are staring down a political impasse because the establishment and mainstream politicians doing its bidding will never take away their own power and resources.

This is true irrespective of whoever is the finance minister. Certain liberal segments are convinced that all would be well if Miftah Ismail had not been replaced by Ishaq Dar at the helm of the PDM’s economic wheel. But both represent a party of trader-industrialists, and the only major difference during their recent stints in office is that Miftah did a deal with the IMF as soon as he was made finance minister, while Dar dithered and put off the inevitable.

What we need is a political vehicle that actually represents Pakistan’s long-suffering working people. Only then might we see the will to art­iculate and execute the right policies, in­­cluding the redistribution of land and other wealth, reduction of defence exp­enditure, enforcement of progressive taxation, and an industrial policy that does­n’t devastate our vulnerable ecosystems in the interests of short-term profit. In case anyone needs reminding, the IMF never forces such policies on our finance czars.

Creditors will always be fine with indirect taxes and price hikes of basic amenities to pay off outstanding debts even as our currency remains in freefall. Meanwhile, our own governments can do no better than sell unattainable dreams of social mobility to young people through privatised education, stunted entrepreneurial initiatives and, most of all, old-fashioned connections. When the dreams don’t materialise, there is the ever-reliable option of hateful propaganda against ‘corrupt’ parties, foreign conspirators and domestic ghaddars.

Short-termism is making things worse, as is the fake choice of PTI/PDM, both overseen by the establishment. We need a concerted effort to bring together emaciated progressives, win over the centrists and then liberate the youthful mass taken in by the hateful sloganeering of various shares of rightists.

Published in Dawn, February 17th, 2023

IF YOU HAVE AN A-BOMB EVERYBODY PLAYS NICE
IAEA chief sees promising prospects for nuclear energy in Pakistan

The Newspaper's Staff Reporter Published February 17, 2023 

The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi speaks to the media. — Reuters/File

ISLAMABAD: Head of the Interna­tional Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi has a positive outlook for nuclear energy in Pakistan.

Speaking at a seminar hosted by the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad, on Thursday, the IAEA director general noted the political will in Pakistan and the country’s technical capacity and nuclear safety record as the reasons for his optimism about the prospects for the expansion of nuclear energy.

“There is strong political support for new nuclear power plants in Pakistan,” said Mr Grossi. He observed that Pakistan has a world-class and impeccable nuclear safety record. Moreover, he said, the country has technical and engineering capacity for new nuclear power plants, including small modular reactors (SMRs), which indicated a promising future for nuclear energy and achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Speaking on the occasion, Minister for Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal said Pakistan has a mutually beneficial relationship with the IAEA that included all areas of nuclear technology.

He said that despite ranking as low as 158th among carbon-emitting countries, Pakistan is among the countries severely affected by the climate change. Pakistan has achieved great milestones in nuclear science and technology for the socio-economic uplift of the country in areas such as cancer diagnosis and treatment, development of disease-free and high-yield crop varieties and food preservation.

He said the nuclear power provides clean and cheap energy and currently contributes to eight per cent of the country’s energy mix with six operational nuclear power plants. Pakistan has an impeccable nuclear safety and security record and plans to develop more power plants.

“To energy deficient and economically strained countries like ours, nuclear power is sustainable, clean, and a green source of energy in the overall energy mix, which also includes wind and solar power. It is the best solution to the challenge of climate change as well,” he said.

CISS Executive Director Ali Sarwar Naqvi, who has served as Pakistan’s permanent representative at the IAEA for five years, said in his welcome speech that Pakistan and the IAEA will continue to jointly contribute to a safer and cleaner world through their longstanding partnership. Climate change is one of the biggest threats to humanity due to its direct relation to water, food, and human security.

Published in Dawn, February 17th, 2023

Lessons from Turkiye

Dr Noman Ahmed 

Published February 16, 2023 

The writer is an academic and researcher based in Karachi.

SO far, over 40,000 people are reported to have died in the massive earthquake of Feb 6 that caused huge devastation in primarily Turkiye and Syria. Millions have been injured and left without a home in the harshness of winter. Rescue teams are beginning to lose hope of finding more survivors under the rubble.

Over 3,500 buildings have collapsed in Kahramanmaraş, Gaziantep and surrounding locations. Many more structures, damaged in the quake, may need to be demolished. Video clips of the event have exposed pre-existing structural flaws in buildings.

Turkiye lies in an area of considerable seismic activity. Three tectonic plates constantly grind beneath the earth’s surface. Poor building design and construction are being blamed for the magnitude of the tragedy.

Due to real estate and housing demands of the local middle class, overseas Turks and investors, builders and developers in Turkiye have availed multiple lucrative opportunities to build and sell real estate in many urban locations. Often, they’ve escaped mandatory scrutiny of their projects.

Turkish authorities have issued arrest warrants for several builders accused of violating building codes and procedures.

Pakistan is no stranger to earthquakes. The qua­ke of Oct 8, 2005, in AJK and KP resulted in at least 87,000 casualties. Millions were displaced. Quakes also caused damage and fatalities in Zia­r­­at (2008), Awaran (2013), Chitral (2015) and Mir­p­­­ur (2019). After the 2005 quake, the regime initiated steps to deal with future quakes.

The Earth­q­uake Reha­bi­litation and Reconstruction Authority was created to address the needs of the affected people and lau­nch complex reconstruction works. The Natio­nal Di­­saster Management Authority (NDMA) at the federal level and similar outfits at the provincial level were also established. Apart from preparing for quake damage, these agencies respon­d­­ed to oth­er disasters, such as the 2010, 2011 and 2022 rains and floods. A disaster mitigation plan was pre­pared and periodically updated by technocrats.

A significant move was the preparation and notification of the Building Code of Pakistan in 2007. Many technocrats and senior engineers contributed to the effort. The code was forwarded to the concerned departments and agencies for adaptation and incorporation in regulatory practices.

The document includes detailed provisions on the qualification of seismic hazards, relationship of the building design to site considerations, soil and foundation design challenges, structural design requirements, structural tests and inspections and matters pertinent to structural guidelines and masonry, mechanical and electrical systems.

There have been multiple building collapses in densely populated neighbourhoods in Karachi and other cities.

Fire-safety provisions were added in 2016 under the auspices of the NDMA and Pakistan Engineering Council. Housing, town planning, zoning and building control have become the responsibility of the provinces since devolution in 2010.

Therefore, provincial departments and agencies have also revised building bylaws and regulations in many cases. Despite these steps, the built environment of cities, smaller towns and rural habitats remain at risk.

Most buildings and structures in Pakistani cities are self-built by the people, without any architectural and structural design. Only rudimentary advice by masons or petty contractors is taken. Shoddy techniques are employed in building, with limited essential inputs; these buildings become death traps if disaster strikes.

Indeed, there have been multiple building collapses in densely populated neighbourhoods in Karachi and other cities. On investigation, it was found that no technical advice was followed during construction.

Many multistoried buildings in otherwise planned locations also display design and construction flaws. Most were built in connivance with greedy, unscrupulous personnel in building control authorities. Permission to construct high-rises along major corridors, unchecked densification in inner city areas, rampant violation of building regulations, impulsive twists in land use and lease grant conditions, and inappropriately laid down infrastructure, particularly gas and electricity conduits/ wiring, are standing dangers.

For instance, Karachi’s sea front is touted as a choice location for upmarket condominiums and other real estate ventures. It may be remembered that Karachi was struck by a tsunami in November 1945, which caused substantial damage.

For a scientific response to the earthquake threat in high-risk zones, appropriate action must begin straight away. Stock-taking of buildings and structures in various localities is the first stage.

The buildings must be analysed for their occupancy and utility; structural stability; safety provisions, including fire escapes, exits and firefighting systems; and potential hazard points, such as electricity boards, gas installations and storage. Parking lots and the overall micro environment in which the building is located must also be assessed.

Standards must be developed for minimum conditions of survival and safety after undertaking a comprehensive inventory. Similarly, appraisal of under-construction buildings and plans needs to be carried out.

On a district-level scale, information pertinent to hazardous activities must be obtained. It is usual for hazardous activities to penetrate our urban neighbourhoods. Storage of gas cylinders, chemicals and other flammable material and the like must be carefully noted and dealt with according to safety regulations.

High density high-rise structures across our major cities experience a shortage of gas. Many households depend on LPG cylinders as cooking fuel. Routine safety audits must be commissioned by concerned building controllers to keep a check on inhabited buildings.

In the present economic meltdown, important priorities, such as planning for disasters, have tak­en a back seat. Some critics blame governments for using catastrophes to gather aid from wherever possible. This approach does not always deliver. When struck by a calamity, the government, alrea­­dy hard-pressed to balance other essential expend­itures, fails to invest in rehabilitation and redevelopment.

To avoid such situations, mock exercises and simulations must be carried out to see how low-cost and resource-efficient options can be implemented.

In some cases, quake disasters strike in the po­­orest locations, such as Awaran in 2013. A district with negligible essential infrastructure, Awaran was nevertheless fortunate to have a useful reconstruction programme under the district administration.

With technical inputs from engineering university professors, mason training initiatives were launched that up-scaled the skill base of local workers with few resources. Such efficient models must be critically examined for incorporation in our usual policies for disaster mitigation.

The writer is an academic and researcher based in Karachi.

Published in Dawn, February 16th, 2023

Afghan Taliban ‘unlikely to stop support for TTP’

Anwar Iqbal 

Published February 16, 2023

WASHINGTON: Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers are unlikely to discontinue supporting militants in Pakistan as they feel that economic troubles prevent Islamabad from launching a major operation against the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), according to a new report from a leading US think tank.

“Amid Pakistan’s economic crisis and the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan, the Pakistani Taliban have reemerged as an increasingly potent threat,” warned the report, released in Washington on Tuesday by the US Institute of Peace (USIP).

Referring to Kabul’s recent criticism of Islamabad’s policies, the report argued that “this undiplomatic rhetoric underscores the Taliban’s determination to continue supporting the TTP, even in the face of intensified pressure from Pakistan”.

USIP argued that the Taliban’s response to being confronted about their support for the TTP “has been to level counter-accusations — which does not signal an impending shift away from that support”.

USIP report fears Pakistan’s deteriorating economy will limit its ability to act against terrorists

Such rhetorical signals are matched by anecdotal reports from UN officials and other observers — quoted in the USIP report — of TTP individuals moving freely and conducting business in Afghan cities.

Interlocutors with access to Kandahar report that the Taliban emir and his close advisers were “unlikely to waiver in supporting the TTP on ideological grounds,” the USIP report noted.

According to this report, another key factor shaping the Pakistani response is the country’s deteriorating economy, which is on the brink of a default. “That limits Pakistan’s military options. Pakistan can carry out raids and undertake defensive actions inside the country, but it doesn’t have the resources for a sustained high-intensity campaign,” USIP warned.

The report noted that “Pakistan has flirted with the idea of cross-border airstrikes again,” which it last conducted in April 2022 and it also faced “growing pressure for action,” but seemed reluctant to act.

The pressure came from political groups in Pakistan who were “framing the terrorism resurgence as a conspiracy by the military to block former prime minister Imran Khan’s return to power and to get American aid,” the report added.

But the report argued that economic pressures and the risk of a conflict spiral, especially amid reports of Taliban fighters joining the TTP, “may induce doubts in Pakistan about such a cross-border operation”.

The TTP’s escalating campaign of violence “is a function of its growing political and material strength — reflected in its political cohesion, expanding cadre of trained fighters, suicide bombers, weapons, and equipment,” the report added.

“The Afghan Taliban remain very supportive of the TTP and are providing the group with a permissive safe haven,” the report claimed. It noted that the TTP also had a lot of popular support in Afghanistan, “where both Taliban and non-Taliban constituencies get behind the TTP due to a fervent dislike for Pakistan”.

The USIP reported that some Taliban fighters were also joining the TTP, and some recent bombers, who carried out attacks inside Pakistan, were also Afghan.

The report also pointed out that a handful of Taliban leaders, in particular Taliban Interior Minister Siraj Haqqani, had restrained the TTP on Pakistani requests on occasion. “Yet the balance of opinion within the Taliban is strongly in favour of the TTP and its campaign. In particular, Taliban Amir Hibatullah Akhundzada agrees with the TTP that Pakistani system is un-Islamic,” the report concluded.

Taliban-TTP nexus

Editorial

Published February 17, 2023

IF the analysis of an American government think tank stating that the Afghan Taliban are unwilling to end their support for the banned TTP is accurate, it would put to rest the illusion harboured by some in our security establishment that a Taliban government in Kabul is good for Pakistan. If anything, the US Institute of Peace report paints an unsettling picture, which shows that not only are the Afghan rulers allowing TTP fighters to freely operate on their soil, but that they believe that Pakistan will not launch a full-blown anti-TTP operation because of its financial woes. The report observes that TTP operatives move freely in Afghanistan, while adding that “the Afghan Taliban remain very supportive of the TTP and are providing the group with a permissive safe haven”. Moreover, there appears to be support for the TTP within Afghan society beyond the Taliban due to deeply entrenched anti-Pakistan views. In fact, some of the bombers who carried out attacks inside Pakistan have been identified as Afghans. And while some within the Taliban ruling elite, such as the Haqqani faction, favour a softer line towards Pakistan, and have tried to stop the TTP from launching attacks against this country, Taliban supremo Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada remains convinced Pakistan’s system is “un-Islamic”, much as his ideological comrades in the TTP do.

Where Pakistan’s security is concerned, there were warnings all along that the Afghan Taliban would do little to rein in the TTP, and these findings only confirm those fears. While Pakistan’s options may be limited, it needs to firmly let the Taliban rulers know that hosting and supporting a group visibly hostile to this country will have far-reaching implications. For one, Pakistan should stop defending Kabul’s rulers at international fora unless they clean up their act. Moreover, while times may indeed be tough, the state needs to make it clear that the TTP and other terrorists trying to harm Pakistan will be dealt with severely on the battlefield. Also, Pakistan should coordinate with regional states to communicate to Kabul that terrorists cannot find a safe haven on Afghan soil. Russia, China, Iran and the Central Asian states are all wary of terrorist groups finding refuge in Afghanistan, and Pakistan needs to use regional platforms to let the Taliban know that either they can neutralise the terrorists, or face further isolation.

Published in Dawn, February 17th, 2023

New defense white paper reflects Yoon Suk-yeol’s hardline stance on North Korea

Seoul labels Pyongyang as its enemy and emphasizes cooperation and deterrence with Washington and Tokyo

Sooyoung OhFebruary 16, 2023

ROK Air Force’s fleet of Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II fighters, March 25, 2022 | Image: Facebook

South Korea released its 2022 Defense White Paper on Thursday, and it takes a sharp U-Turn from the previous Moon Jae-in administration’s dovish approach to North Korea.

As widely predicted, the new white paper defines North Korea’s regime and armed forces as South Korea’s enemy, undoing the previous government’s removal of the line from the 2018 white paper.

The new report justifies the revision by pointing to Pyongyang’s own branding of Seoul as its “clear enemy” in December and notes that the DPRK expressed its intention to “communize the entire Korean Peninsula.”

The new white paper also adds the violation of the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement to its list of North Korean military provocations, mentioning the various missile tests, drone incursions and artillery fire into maritime buffer zones.

CLOSE NEIGHBORS

South Korea’s relations with Japan hit a nadir under Moon Jae-in and spiraled into a trade war and hostility over unsettled historical disputes. The Moon government even threatened to terminate an intel-sharing agreement with Japan.

No love was lost as Seoul’s 2020 white paper described Japan simply as a “neighbor” with which South Korea should cooperate in the broad context of pursuing global peace.

Amid efforts to repair relations and forge stronger trilateral ties with Japan and the U.S. to deter North Korea, the new white paper calls Tokyo a “close neighbor” with which Seoul shares common values and emphasizes the need to develop a “futuristic, cooperative relationship.”

Still, territorial claims and historical disputes over Imperial Japan’s wartime use of forced labor and sexual slavery are not to be brushed aside. Seoul says it is “firm” on countering efforts at revisionism and aims to resolve such sticking points while improving their relations.

THREAT PERCEPTION

Seoul’s latest defense white paper also suggests the North has continued to produce nuclear materials “in its nuclear plants, including the Yongbyon facility,” accumulating about 154 pounds (70 kilograms) of plutonium. It’s also believed to have a significant amount of highly enriched uranium (HEU).

The previous white paper put the amount of plutonium at 110 pounds (50 kilograms) and only mentioned the Yongbyon plant.

Following Pyongyang’s unprecedented number of missiles tested last year, the new white paper has added seven new projectiles to its line-up of the North’s known missiles.

It has identified close-range and short-range missiles deemed tactical guided weapons, new Pukguksong 4 and 5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles and two hypersonic models sporting wedge-shaped and conical gliders. The new paper also specifies the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile as capable of traveling over 3,400 miles (5,500 kilometers).

Hwasong-17 ICBMs appear during North Korea’s military parade | Images: Rodong Sinmun (Feb. 9, 2023)

INCREASED AGGRESSION

South Korea’s three-axis deterrence system comprising Kill Chain, Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) and Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) only took up half a page in the 2020 white paper.

But the new paper dedicates five pages to deterrence, emphasizing Kill Chain and KMPR, which involve pre-emptive strikes and retaliatory measures that could incapacitate the DPRK’s leadership.

Seeking to engage the North, the Moon administration downplayed the ROK’s military capabilities for most of its five years. It also held off on installing Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system components as long as possible following Chinese backlash. Instead, the previous government focused on homegrown defense systems, such as medium and long-range surface-to-air missiles.

Extended deterrence — the policy that the U.S. would defend South Korea with nuclear weapons — or has been the bedrock of the alliance. Based on the outcomes of the Security Consultative Meeting in November and the defense ministers’ meeting in Seoul in late January, the new white paper outlines ways to coordinate and respond to a possible nuclear attack by Pyongyang.

It mentions measures like tabletop exercises, joint nuclear planning, intel-sharing and deploying U.S. strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula with more specific details than the 2020 edition. On the other hand, the allies suspended tabletop exercises and large-scale joint military drills such as Foal Eagle about two years into Moon’s presidency.

As North Korea is increasing and intensifying its missile and nuclear provocations, the white paper indicates that the South is now inclined to respond more forcefully and regularly. However, while greater vigilance and military readiness are undoubtedly needed, whether a tit-for-tat approach strengthens or undermines deterrence remains to be seen.

Edited by John Lee

Qatargate: Cash-for-influence scandal widens with more EU lawmakers in frame


Maria Arena and Alessandra Moretti are mentioned in arrest warrant for another MEP, Andrea Cozzolino.

MEPs Maria Arena and Alessandra Moretti are connected to Belgium's Qatargate investigation | Photos by the European Parliament

BY CAMILLE GIJS AND EDDY WAX
FEBRUARY 16, 2023 

Belgium’s probe into alleged corruption and influence-buying by Qatar and Morocco in the European Parliament has widened, an international arrest warrant obtained by POLITICO shows.

MEPs Maria Arena and Alessandra Moretti are connected to the investigation being undertaken by Belgian prosecutors, according to the warrant for Italian MEP Andrea Cozzolino, who was arrested last week on charges of corruption, money-laundering and participation in a criminal organization. The warrant was issued on February 10 by Belgian investigative judge Michel Claise.

According to the document, Arena and Moretti were members of a “quadrumvirate,” along with Cozzolino and Belgian MEP Marc Tarabella, who was also arrested last week. The foursome, according to the warrant, did the bidding of former MEP Pier Antonio Panzeri, an alleged ringleader of the network operating in the European Parliament, who has made a plea deal with Belgian prosecutors.

The influence-buying scandal has rocked the EU capital, after Belgian authorities raided homes and offices in December 2022, amid allegations Qatar and Morocco handed out cash and gifts to secure favorable treatment in the European Parliament. In the months since, the institution, which often grandstands on rule-of-law and anti-corruption issues, has undergone a period of soul-searching as its leaders attempted to distance themselves from those implicated and enact reforms.

The saga has particularly shone a spotlight on the inner workings of the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) — the group to which the implicated MEPs belonged. The S&D has excluded Tarabella, Cozzolino and former Parliament vice president Eva Kaili and responded in January with its own anti-corruption and transparency plan.

The warrant seen by POLITICO sheds light on the extent to which the corrupt network allegedly infiltrated the European Parliament.

In one example cited in the warrant, Arena and Moretti were said to have acted on Panzeri’s instructions during a meeting about a possible Parliament resolution on Qatar, in late 2021. Panzeri, who was at that stage no longer an MEP and didn’t attend the meeting himself, gave instructions to his former assistant, seeking to influence the possible resolution.

The plan and the identities of the members of the so-called quadrumvirate were revealed in text messages sent to Panzeri by his former assistant, Giuseppe Meroni, who was still working in the S&D group at the time, according to the warrant. Panzeri struck a plea deal with Belgian prosecutors last month to exchange information for a reduced sentence.

“Qatar resolved,” Meroni said in one text to his former boss Panzeri, according to the warrant. After the meeting, Panzeri received a briefing on what had gone on from Arena as well as Francesco Giorgi — another of his former assistants, who was by then working for Cozzolino. Giorgi is the partner of Kaili, the jailed former European Parliament vice president, and is himself now in prison

“I can only say that it was a lawful exchange of information, as part of regular parliamentary political activity,” Meroni said in response to a POLITICO request for comment.

Moretti, the MEP identified in the warrant seen by POLITICO, denied the allegations. “I have never followed Mr Panzeri instructions in my political activity, no resolution has been discussed on December 2021.”

An Italian court ruled that the daughter of former MEP Pier Antonio Panzeri can be extradited to Belgium | European Union

Unlike in the cases of Cozzolino and Tarabella, authorities haven’t asked the European Parliament to lift Arena and Moretti’s legal immunity, a step necessary to investigate or charge them. Arena declined to comment.

Arena has faced scrutiny over a trip to Doha in May 2022, after failing to declare on time that the Qatari government had paid for her flights and accommodation. Arena stepped down last month as chair of the Parliament’s human rights subcommittee — a role she succeeded Panzeri in. Moretti, meanwhile, on January 17 this year declared a subsidized trip to Qatar that took place in February 2020.
Morocco in the frame amid Pegasus spyware scandal

The warrant also highlights Morocco’s alleged role in the influence-buying scandal.

The document reveals that in an intercepted conversation, Panzeri and Giorgi discussed advancing Moroccan interests by placing either Cozzolino or Kaili on a special parliamentary committee investigating the use of Pegasus spyware to hack the phones of journalists, activists and politicians. Morocco, according to allegations in media reports, may have used the spyware to hack the Spanish government.

Cozzolino and Kaili were both made full members of the committee, though they have now lost those roles.

Cozzolino, who has repeatedly denied any wrong-doing, declined to comment.

Giorgi also managed to prevent Parliament from issuing a text that was unfavorable to Morocco, and informed Panzeri of this in May 2022, according to the warrant.

Two Moroccans considered crucial to the allegedly corrupt network are named in the arrest warrant: spy Mohamed Belahrech, codenamed M118 and known to European spy services for some time; and Abderrahim Atmoun, Rabat’s ambassador in Warsaw.

According to the warrant, Atmoun “played an important role” by handing out cash, and is thought to have worked “closely” with Moroccan intelligence and liaised with Belahrech.

Atmoun and Belahrech did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Western Sahara connection

According to the warrant, Morocco also attempted to influence the European Parliament’s position on the controversial issue of Western Sahara. The disputed territory is a former Spanish colony which for decades has been claimed both by Morocco and a rebel independence movement.

Spain, which had long remained neutral in the ongoing conflict, U-turned on its position last year, backing Rabat’s plan for limited autonomy for Western Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty. The move followed a year of increasing tensions between Madrid and Rabat, after one of the rebel movement’s leaders was permitted to travel to a Spanish hospital for treatment.

The Belgian arrest warrant says Cozzolino released a statement at the request of Atmoun and Panzeri in March 2022, backing Spain’s change of position on Western Sahara.

Jacopo Barigazzi and Elisa Braun contributed to this article.

US backs Moderna, says govt should face Covid-19 vaccine lawsuit

Both Moderna and Pfizer Inc PFE.N have been the target of multiple patent lawsuits over their Covid vaccines, including a lawsuit brought by Moderna against Pfizer in August.


Reuters
Washington,UPDATED: Feb 16, 2023 08:18 IST


Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine at the McKesson distribution center in Olive Branch, Mississippi (Reuters)

By Reuters: 

The U.S. government should face a patent lawsuit over Covid-19 vaccines, not vaccine maker Moderna Inc MRNA.O, the Department of Justice told a Delaware federal court on Tuesday.

The Justice Department's court filing said the United States should be liable for any infringement of Arbutus Biopharma Corp ABUS.O and Genevant Sciences GmbH's patents that took place under Moderna's contract to provide shots for the government's nationwide vaccination effort.

Moderna made the same argument last year in an unsuccessful bid to win an early dismissal of the lawsuit.

Genevant declined to comment on the filing. Representatives for Moderna, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services did not immediately respond to requests for comment Wednesday.

Warminster Township, Pennsylvania-based Arbutus and Genevant — a joint venture between Arbutus and Roivant Sciences Ltd ROIV.O — sued Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Moderna last year for royalties on its multi-billion-dollar Covid vaccines.

ALSO READ Moderna sues Pfizer, BioNTech for Covid-19 vaccine patent infringement

Both Moderna and Pfizer Inc PFE.N have been the target of multiple patent lawsuits over their Covid vaccines, including a lawsuit brought by Moderna against Pfizer in August.

Moderna asked the Delaware court to dismiss Arbutus and Genevant's case in May, arguing it could only be brought against the government in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. It cited a law that was previously used to keep patent disputes from interfering with the supply of war materials during World War One.

But U.S. District Judge Mitchell Goldberg said in November that Moderna had not yet shown that the vaccines were made for the government or with its authorization and consent under the law, and that it may have instead been an "incidental beneficiary" of the shots.

The Department of Justice responded Tuesday that Moderna should not be liable based on its contract to provide the vaccines to the government as part of Operation Warp Speed.

It said the government's liability is limited to Moderna's alleged infringing activity that took place under its U.S. contract.

Rihanna called out by activists for wearing $1 million Burmese ruby ring during Superbowl performance

Rihanna performing at the Superbowl Halftime Show on Feb. 12, 2023. 

Photo: @baycojewels / Instagram

By Coconuts Yangon

Feb 16, 2023 |

Pop megastar Rihanna received a good deal of criticism for her performance during Sunday’s NFL Superbowl Halftime Show, but it was what she was wearing during the performance that has led to outcry from those opposed to Myanmar’s brutal military junta.

The activist group “Justice for Myanmar” called out Rihanna in a Twitter thread yesterday noting that the popstar had been wearing a Burmese ruby ring worth $1 million from New York City’s Bayco Jewels, which sells a number of pieces prominently featuring gems from Myanmar.

The activist group argues “Myanmar gems fund junta atrocities” and calls for a ban on their trade.

According to Bayco, the ring Rihanna was wearing features “a rare natural, unheated 19.47-carat sugarloaf cabochon Burma Ruby”.

While Myanmar has been mired in economic turmoil ever since the military overthrew the civilian government in February 2021 — due to economic sanctions, widespread worker strikes and internal military conflicts with anti-junta forces — one of the ways the junta government has managed to sustain itself is through the sale of gems. Myanmar is one of the top sources of precious stones in the world and is particularly well known for the quality of its rubies.

A report released by human rights watchdog Global Witness in December 2021 detailed how some of the world’s most famous jewelers risked funding the junta by selling rubies that were likely sourced from mines in the military-ruled country.

“There is no such thing as an ethically sourced Burmese ruby,” Clare Hammond, senior Myanmar campaigner at Global Witness, said in a statement. “These gemstones are sold as symbols of human connection and affection, yet the supply chain is steeped in corruption and horrific human rights abuses.”

Although the U.S. has sanctioned some of the major suppliers of gemstones from Myanmar, legislation that would ban their import completely has not been passed and many major international retailers still engage in their trade.

Rihanna is clearly aware of what’s happening in Myanmar. She was widely praised in February 2021 for this tweet raising awareness about the then-recent coup.

As Justice for Myanmar notes in their thread, Rihanna’s fellow artists have been prominent among the victims of the junta’s violence, which has killed an estimated 2,400 civilians.

Justice for Myanmar ends their thread with a call for Rihanna to stand with the people of Myanmar by boycotting Myanmar gems and calling for a ban on their trade.

Screenshot: @baycojewels / Instagram

US Worried by Myanmar Junta, Russia Expanding Nuclear Cooperation

February 15, 2023
Ingyin Naing

In this handout photo released by Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service, Myanmar State Administration Council Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, right, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pose during their meeting in Naypyitaw, Myanmar, Aug. 3, 2022.

WASHINGTON —

The United States is concerned about the expansion of Russia’s nuclear cooperation with the military-led government in Myanmar — also known as Burma — the U.S. State Department said this week.

“We are deeply concerned with — but not surprised by — Russia’s willingness to expand its material support, including through nuclear energy cooperation, to the repressive regime in Burma (Myanmar),” the State Department said in an emailed statement to VOA on Tuesday. “Russia’s actions are prolonging a crisis that threatens our efforts to advance peace and prosperity with our partners and allies in the Indo-Pacific.”

Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation, known as ROSATOM, and the Myanmar junta signed the “intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in the field of the use of nuclear energy” on February 6.

“This agreement is for the cooperation, not only for the small nuclear power plant, but also the applications of nuclear technology in multiple sectors, and it will enhance the socioeconomic development of the country," said junta leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in a signing ceremony last Monday at the newly opened Nuclear Technology Information Center in Yangon, Myanmar’s largest city.

The two countries’ cooperation on nuclear energy begins “a new chapter in the history of Russian-Myanmar relations,” ROSATOM Director General Alexey Likhachev said during the signing ceremony. “The creation of a new industry in the country will undoubtedly benefit the energy sector, industry and the economy of Myanmar.”

Cooperation after coup

After the February 2021 coup, military-ruled Myanmar rapidly increased nuclear cooperation with Russia. A spokesperson for the Myanmar junta, Major General Zaw Min Tun, confirmed to VOA last Friday that Myanmar would build a small-scale nuclear reactor with Russia’s assistance.

SEE ALSO:
Myanmar Marks Second Anniversary of Military-Led Overthrow of Civilian Government

Zaw Min Tun told VOA Burmese by phone that the junta’s nuclear experts “are looking for suitable places in the country to build a small-scale nuclear reactor together with Russian nuclear experts.”

“The feasibility studies will be conducted in several places across the country to build a nuclear reactor. We haven’t chosen a place yet,” he said. “We will do it in the best location with the most favorable and safest environment in order to minimize danger.”

Last September, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing visited Russia to attend the Eastern Economic Forum and agreed with Russia on a road map for nuclear cooperation, including the possibility of implementing a small modular reactor project in Myanmar.

The statement by ROSATOM declared that the road map would guide cooperation in the field of “peaceful use of atomic energy” for 2022-23. In addition, experts from both countries would conduct studies about the possible construction of a light-water moderated nuclear reactor in Myanmar.

After 1999, the previous junta in Myanmar began negotiations with Russia on a nuclear reactor project, confirming their plans in January 2002 to build a nuclear research reactor for “peaceful purposes.”

Past nuclear pursuits

Myanmar, however, has been suspected of pursuing a nuclear weapons program in the past.

VOA sought comment from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), asking if the Myanmar junta’s plan for the nuclear reactor would be in accordance with the IAEA’s Additional Protocol. The IAEA has not yet responded.

Myanmar signed a key nuclear nonproliferation agreement, known as the Additional Protocol, with the IAEA in 2013. According to the agreement, the IAEA can expand its access to information and sites related to the country’s nuclear activities.

However, international analysts have concerns that Myanmar lacks the necessary regulatory and management systems to operate a nuclear power facility safely.

Map showing Myanmar

“In this type of reactor (a light-water moderated nuclear reactor), after some time, leaking can become a problem if proper maintenance is strictly required," Myanmar scientist Khin Maung Maung, a professor of physics at the University of Southern Mississippi, said in a statement to VOA. "Here proper maintenance is the key idea. As far as I am aware, there is not a single factory in Myanmar that enjoys this privilege.”

“There is no doubt that they (the military leaders) have the ambition and desire to own nuclear arsenals," he said, "and acquiring nuclear reactors, no matter how small, is definitely a step in that direction.”

ROSATOM previously said it would supply 10 metric tons of enriched uranium fuel to Myanmar, which, according to scientist Khin Maung Maung, is enough to build a nuclear weapon. Though the country doesn’t have the technical ability to convert the uranium to weapons-grade material, it could potentially use it in a “dirty bomb” scenario.

“With this much fuel in hand, they do not even need to enrich or build a proper weapon," he said. "But one must be careful and think through all possibilities when dealing with [the] Burmese military.”

Russians visit Myanmar

Last December, a Russian delegation composed of around a dozen senior military officers — led by Colonel-General Kim Alexey Rostislavovich — visited Myanmar. According to the Myanmar state media, the two sides focused on cooperation regarding defense and counterterrorism between the two militaries, saying this would contribute to “regional and global peace.”

Russia, however, has threatened global peace by invading Ukraine, while Myanmar’s military has removed the democratic system in the Southeast Asian country by staging a coup and bloody crackdown on civilians.

According to the State Department, many credible reports show that Russia is providing the Myanmar military with weapons that “enable it to perpetuate violence, atrocities and human rights abuses against the people of Burma.”

“Russia’s backing for the regime is also undermining stability in the broader region,” the State Department said in a statement to VOA on Tuesday. “The United States will continue working with the international community to promote accountability for the coup and all those responsible for the horrific violence, including those who support and arm the military regime.”

VOA’s Burmese Service contributed to this report.