Key measures could slash predicted 2050 emissions from cooling sector

Reports and Proceedings

UNEP DIVISION OF PUBLIC COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION

• Cooling sector greenhouse gas emissions predicted to more than double by 2050
• Key measures could slow power growth, cut predicted emissions by 60-96 per cent
• End-users could save US$1 trillion annually and power sector up to US$5 trillion
• 3.5 billion people set to benefit from access to life-saving cooling

Dubai, 5 December 2023 – Taking key measures to reduce the power consumption of cooling equipment would cut at least 60 per cent off predicted 2050 sectoral emissions, provide universal access to life-saving cooling, take the pressure off energy grids and save trillions of dollars by 2050, according to a new report published during the COP28 climate talks in Dubai.

The Global Cooling Watch report, Keeping it Chill: How to meet cooling demands while cutting emissions – by the UN Environment Programme-led Cool Coalition – lays out sustainable cooling measures in three areas: passive cooling, higher-energy efficiency standards, and a faster phase down of climate-warming refrigerants. Following the measures outlined in these areas would deliver the 60 per cent cuts; adding rapid power grid decarbonization would reduce sectoral emissions by 96 per cent.

The report is released in support of the Global Cooling Pledge, a joint initiative between the United Arab Emirates as host of COP28 and the Cool Coalition. Today, over 60 countries signed up to the Pledge with commitments to reduce the climate impact of the cooling sector.

“As temperatures rise, it is critical that we work together to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions from the cooling sector while increasing access to sustainable cooling. This access is especially important for the most vulnerable communities, who have often contributed the least to climate change but are the most exposed to its impacts,” said Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President.

“The cooling sector must grow to protect everyone from rising temperatures, maintain food quality and safety, keep vaccines stable and economies productive,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “But this growth must not come at the cost of the energy transition and more intense climate impacts. Countries and the cooling sector must act now to ensure low-carbon cooling growth. Fortunately, the solutions are available today. Getting energy efficient, sustainable cooling right offers an opportunity to cut global warming, improve the lives of hundreds of millions of people, and realize huge financial savings.”

Rapid and unsustainable growth in cooling

Climate change, population and income growth, and urbanization are increasing cooling demand, which is necessary to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. Around 1.2 billion people in Africa and Asia lack access to cooling services, putting lives at risk from extreme heat, reducing farmers’ incomes, driving food loss and waste, and hindering universal vaccine access.

“As temperatures rise, it is critical that we work together to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions from the cooling sector while increasing access to sustainable cooling. This access is especially important for the most vulnerable communities, who have often contributed the least to climate change but are the most exposed to its impacts.”

On current growth trends, cooling equipment represents 20 per cent of total electricity consumption today – and is expected to more than double by 2050. Greenhouse gas emissions from power consumption will increase, alongside leakage of refrigerant gases, most of which have a much higher global warming potential than carbon dioxide. Under a business-as-usual scenario, emissions from cooling are predicted to account for more than 10 per cent of global emissions in 2050.

Rising demand for often inefficient equipment, including air-conditioners and refrigerators, will require large investments in electricity generation and distribution infrastructure. Inefficient equipment will also result in high electricity bills for end users, particularly in Africa and South Asia, where the fastest growth is predicted.

“The private sector has a huge role to play in financing and driving innovation to advance sustainable cooling, which can help fulfill vital local development needs and support global carbon reduction targets. We are pleased to contribute to the Global Cooling Stocktake Report and to support the Global Cooling Pledge,” said Makhtar Diop, Managing Director, International Finance Corporation.

Benefits for climate, human health, and prosperity

Following the report’s recommendations could reduce the projected 2050 emissions from business-as-usual cooling by around 3.8 billion tons of CO2e.

This would:

• Allow an additional 3.5 billion people to benefit from refrigerators, air conditioners or passive cooling by 2050.
• Reduce electricity bills for end users by US$1 trillion in 2050, and by US$17 trillion cumulatively between 2022—2050.
• Reduce peak power requirements by between 1.5 and 2 terawatts (TW) – almost double the EU’s total generation capacity today.
• Avoid power generation investments in the order of US$4 to US$5 trillion.

Adding in rapid grid decarbonization would bring the total emission cuts up to 96 per cent. G20 countries represent 73 per cent of the 2050 emission reduction potential.

The report outlines key actions to take in passive cooling strategies, higher energy efficiency standards and a faster phase down of climate-warming hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants through the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol.

As of 2022, while more than 80 per cent of countries had at least one regulatory instrument in place in these areas, implementation remains inadequate, and an integrated approach is missing. Only 30 per cent of countries have regulations that enable action on all the three fronts.

Passive cooling measures

Passive cooling measures – such as insulation, natural shading, ventilation and reflective surfaces – can dramatically reduce cooling loads. These can be provided, in part, by the development and enforcement of building energy codes that incorporate passive cooling, and urban design. 

Such strategies can curb the growth in demand for cooling capacity in 2050 by 24 per cent, result in capital cost savings in avoided new cooling equipment of up to US$3 trillion, and reduce emissions by 1.3 billion tons of CO2e.

Higher efficiency standards

Higher efficiency standards and better labelling of all cooling equipment would triple the global average efficiency of cooling equipment in 2050 from today’s levels, delivering 30 per cent of modelled energy savings, lowering energy bills and improving the resilience and financial viability of cold chains.

Critical implementing policies include regularly updated Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS), financial instruments to encourage demand for higher efficiency products and regulations to avoid the dumping of low efficiency cooling equipment into developing countries.

Kigali Amendment

The world has committed to phasing down HFCs through the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol – a global deal designed to protect the ozone layer and slow climate change.

Faster action is possible and can achieve a halving of HFC emissions in 2050 – compared to the Kigali phase-down timetable – through rapid uptake of better technologies in new equipment, better refrigerant management, and stronger national enforcement.

Finance is critical

The total life-cycle cost savings of $22 trillion ($17 trillion in power costs savings and $5 trillion in power generation investments) will make the sustainable cooling transition affordable. Existing business models need to be scaled to use these savings to reduce upfront costs and make the transition affordable for all.

Financial tools include on-bill financing (when a utility pays for an upgrade and recovers the cost through monthly power bills), risk-sharing facilities, public and private investments, green mortgages, seed financing for cold chains. For many developing countries, dedicated concessional finance will be needed as well as incorporating sustainable cooling criteria into banks’ lending practices.

NOTES TO EDITORS

About the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)

UNEP is the leading global voice on the environment. It provides leadership and encourages partnership in caring for the environment by inspiring, informing and enabling nations and peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising that of future generations.

About the Cool Coalition

The UNEP-led Cool Coalition is a global multi-stakeholder network that connects a wide range of key actors from government, cities, international organizations, businesses, finance, academia, and civil society groups to facilitate knowledge exchange, advocacy and joint action towards a rapid global transition to sustainable cooling. The Cool Coalition is now working with over 130 partners, including 23 countries. The Cool Coalition is one of the official outcomes and “Transformation Initiatives” put forward by the Executive Office of the Secretary-General for the 2019 UN Climate Action Summit and the technical delivery partner to COP28 UAE Presidency on the Global Cooling Pledge.

About the Global Cooling Pledge

The Global Cooling Pledge provides an opportunity to commit to sustainable cooling with concrete actions. An initiative of the United Arab Emirates as host of the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), the Pledge is one of nine non-negotiated declarations, pledges, and charters that constitute key outcomes for the COP28 Presidential Action Agenda. It aims to raise ambition and international cooperation through collective global targets to reduce cooling related emissions by 68% from today by 2050, significantly increase access to sustainable cooling by 2030, and increase the global average efficiency of new air conditioners by 50%. The emission targets draw on the modelling from the UNEP Cool Coalition report Global Cooling Watch: Keeping it Chill: How to meet cooling demands while cutting emissions.

For more information please contact:
News and Media Unit, UN Environment Programme

 

Real-time assessments of regional weather and human comfort index on 10-meter-resolution were provided over Tiananmen area, Beijing

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

 

IMAGE: 

HORIZONTAL DISTRIBUTION OF UNIVERSAL THERMAL CLIMATE INDEX IN ℃ AT 2-METER-OFF GROUND AT 10 A.M. JULY 1ST 2021, HIGHER VALUE INDICATES MORE HEAT STRESS.

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CREDIT: ©SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

This study is led by Dr. Xiaoran Guo and Dr. Chao Yan (both from Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration). A fast urban micro-meteorology model was developed and applied over the central Beijing region in summer during a large outdoor event. In comparison with conventional weather forecast methods, the main feature of this model lies in the fine spacial structures of wind, air temperature, humidity and human comfort index revealed by the simulation, which is adequate to capture the shapes of local green belts, water surfaces and 3-D buildings. With these urban morphology resolved, their blockage effects on wind fields and sun lights are calculated as well as the evaporations over certain land type. To realize fast simulation, the wind fields around building cluster were constructed according to statistical relationships and empiracal parameterizations, which largely improve the computational efficiency comparing with traditional CFD methods. To quantify the comprehensive influences of weather and environment on human physiological process, universal thermal climate index was calculated and visualized as a main product for the weather service.

Taking the simulated horizontal distribution of human comfort index as an example, at 10 a.m. july 1st 2021, there were cool areas at the west sides of each building hidden in their shadows, while the east sides were generally under higher heat stress, partly due to the weak wind within building’s lee-side cavity zone. In contrast, through the evaporation processes, the hot stresses were considerably reduced by water surface while effectiveness of vegetation were limited. Through model verification, their results were generally in good agreement with measurements.

See the article:

Guo X, Yan C, Miao S. 2023. A rapid modeling method for urban microscale meteorology and its applications. Science China Earth Sciences, 66(10): 2224‒2238

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JOURNAL

Science China Earth Sciences

DOI

10.1007/s11430-022-1160-6 

Satellite observations reveal latitudinal variability and asymmetry in local temperature responses to actual land cover changes

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

 

IMAGE: 

(A) LATITUDINAL VARIABILITY IN THE TEMPERATURE RESPONSES TO LCCS (ΔTLCC) AND IN THE RATIOS OF ΔTLCC TO THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE VARIATION (ΔT) AT THE SAME LOCATION OVER THE SAME PERIOD; (B) SEASONAL ΔTLCC PATTERNS IN FOUR LATITUDE ZONES.

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CREDIT: ©SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

Land cover changes (LCCs) affect surface temperatures at local scale through biophysical processes. However, limited by the coarse spatial resolution of available data, past observation-based studies mainly focused on the potential effects of virtual afforestation/deforestation using the space-for-time assumption. Prof. Li and his team firstly generated a high-resolution temperature dataset, and then explored the actual effects of all types of realistic LCCs by adopting the space-and-time scheme and utilizing extensive satellite observations.

They identified a total of 529,128 1-km pixels experienced LCC from 2006 to 2015. The widely studied afforestations/deforestations accounted for 46.28%, whereas previously underexplored transitions within non-forest vegetation types and almost unnoticed changes involving non-vegetation types occurred with proportions of 18.62% and 35.10%, respectively, illustrating the necessity to explore the comprehensive influences of all LCC types instead of considering only the influences of forest changes, as has been done in previous research.

The average temperature in the areas with LCCs increased by 0.08 K globally, but varied significantly across latitudes, ranging from -0.05 K to 0.18 K. These effects accounted for up to 44.6% of overall concurrent warming, emphasizing the importance of LCC biophysical influences. By comparing the importance of different LCC processes within a unified framework, the researchers found that cropland expansions dominated cooling effects in the northern mid-latitudes, whereas forest-related LCCs caused warming effects elsewhere.

Unlike the symmetric assumption of potential effects, the researchers revealed obvious asymmetries in the actual effects: LCCs with warming effects occurred more frequently, with stronger intensities, than LCCs with cooling effects. Even for the mutual changes between two covers in the same region, warming LCCs generally had larger magnitudes than their cooling counterparts. Attribution analysis indicated that the asymmetric temperature effects was caused by a combination of asymmetric changes in transition fractions and driving variables. These findings demonstrated that the increase in temperature resulting from a specific LCC cannot be counteracted by simply performing its reverse LCC of the same area during the same period, providing a new perspective on the land management and climate adaptation policies.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.09.046

(a) Area weight of each type of LCC in global LCCs and (b) the influence of each type of LCC on temperature.

CREDIT

©Science China Pres

JOURNAL

Science Bulletin

DOI

10.1016/j.scib.2023.09.046 

Unlocking climate puzzle: Study reveals hidden physics in quasi-linear temperature-radiation link

Peer-Reviewed Publication

INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

 

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DIAGRAM DEPICTING THE TWO MAIN PROCESSES FOR QUASI-LINEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION (OLR). LEFT: ENHANCEMENT OF MERIDIONAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BY THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF WATER VAPOR; RIGHT: RE-ROUTING PART OF OLR FROM WARM PLACES TO COLD PLACES BY POLEWARD ENERGY TRANSPORT.

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CREDIT: MING CAI AND XIAOMING HU

Curious about what drives Earth's climate sensitivity? A recent study in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences explores the complex links transforming the relationship between surface temperature and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from quartic to quasi-linear. Led by Dr. Jie Sun from Florida State University, this research unravels hidden mechanisms shaping our planet's climate, providing fresh insights into why the temperature and OLR relation deviates from the quartic pattern stated by the Stefan-Boltzmann law.

What is the Stefan-Boltzmann law? Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere create a contrast between surface thermal emission, linked to the fourth power of surface temperature, and OLR.

Prof. Xiaoming Hu from Sun Yat-sen University, the corresponding author of the study, explained, "Vertical convective energy transport acts like an atmospheric mixer, swirling temperatures within a column. This allows the relation between surface temperature and OLR to still follow the quartic pattern by lowering the radiative emission layer."

The study uncovers how various factors influence surface temperature and OLR. The greenhouse effect of water vapor acts as a magnifier, amplifying temperature differences across Earth's surface without altering the latitudinal variation of OLR. This suppresses the nonlinearity between OLR and surface temperature.

Poleward energy transport, on the other hand, functions as equalizers, harmonizing temperature disparities across different regions of the globe. One of the by-products of this global heat redistribution is the re-routing of OLR from warm places to cold places, acting to reduce OLR difference across different regions. This, in turn, further suppresses the nonlinearity.

Prof. Ming Cai from Florida State University highlighted, "Understanding these complex climate interactions is akin to decoding a puzzle. Each piece brings us closer to deciphering our planet's climate intricacies."

By illuminating these connections, scientists make significant strides in comprehending Earth's climate and how its intricate components orchestrate the overall climate sensitivity, namely not only energy output rate but also where the output takes place.

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JOURNAL

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

DOI

10.1007/s00376-023-2386-1 

ARTICLE TITLE

A Quasi-Linear Relationship between Planetary Outgoing Longwave Radiation and Surface Temperature in a Radiative-Convective-Transportive Climate Model of a Gray Atmosphere

 

From excitement to disillusionment – new research identifies 4 emotional stages of professional careers

Study of UK lawyers flags need to consider emotions and coping skills in career progression

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF BATH

Lawyers progress through four distinct emotional stages in their fight to get to the top and secure a coveted partnership role, according to new research from the University of Bath’s School of Management.

The study of UK legal professionals showed they progressed from excitement and anticipation at the start of their career, followed by fear and anxiety as they pursue promotion, to pride and joy at having secured a senior post, and finally experiencing disillusionment and disappointment at the lack of further change.

The research team said the experience of lawyers offered an emotionally rich, structured environment to study. The study notes that, in law firms, career progression is the core organising principle, structuring legal professionals’ working lives. Additionally, emotions are prevalent, shared and complex – partners have strong bonds with each other and their junior protégés, and great significance is attached to partnership as the pinnacle of career success.

“There is a lot of literature around individual career management strategies and organizational promotion practices but we were interested in the ‘felt’ experiences and exploring the emotional aspects of employment. Professionals’ careers are suffused with emotions - some of the lawyers we interviewed used phrases like ‘love’ when talking about partnership and felt great pride when being promoted,” said Dr Stefanie Gustafsson of the University’s School of Management.

“Our research focused on lawyers but we believe the learnings could apply equally to any top professions. Such employees go through a rollercoaster of challenging emotions, positive and negative, that HR and line managers should consider and understand, particularly to develop coping skills and provide support in cultures where success is celebrated but failure is frequently stigmatised,” she said.

The research paper – “Emotions careers: The interplay between careers and emotions in professional organisation”, co-authored by Dan Kärreman of Copenhagen Business School, recommends that HR practitioners and line managers develop a greater awareness of the emotional dynamics associated with careers and give greater weight to employee wellbeing.

“Career conversations such as appraisals or reviews should create a space for talking not just about nuts-and-bolts performance but also about emotions and finding meaningful ways forward, particularly when employees suffer career setbacks when they are emotionally invested,” Dr Gustafsson said.

“One encouraging development is that we are increasingly seeing people openly discuss their career setbacks on social media and it may be helpful to create a culture and safe space where this is common and accepted,” she added.

The research also revealed how the unquestioning value and shared emotional investment attached to achieving a partnership role in a law firm – a principle embedded in the system from the very start - meant an employee wanting to take an alternative route would not be as well regarded as those who strove to reach the top.

“Managers should challenge the negative perceptions around alternative career paths and engage in positive cultural change to create more diverse and accepting thinking about careers outside the defined train tracks. People should be given options and not feel devalued for taking them,” Dr Gustafsson said.

ENDS/TR

Notes to editors

• For more information contact the University of Bath Press office at press@bath.ac.uk

The University of Bath

The University of Bath is one of the UK's leading universities for high-impact research with a reputation for excellence in education, student experience and graduate prospects.

We are named ‘University of the Year’ in The Times and The Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023, and ranked among the world’s top 10% of universities, placing 148th in the QS World University Rankings 2024. We are ranked 5th in the UK in the Complete University Guide 2024, 6th in the Guardian University Guide 2024 and 8th in The Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2024.

Bath is rated in the world’s top 10 universities for sport in the QS World University Ranking by Subject 2023. We produce some of the world’s most job-ready graduates and were named University of the Year for Graduate Jobs by the Daily Mail University Guide 2024, as well as ranking as one of the world’s top 90 universities for employer reputation according to the QS World University Rankings 2024.

Research from Bath is helping to change the world for the better. Across the University’s three Faculties and School of Management, our research is making an impact in society, leading to low-carbon living, positive digital futures, and improved health and wellbeing. Find out all about our Research with Impact: www.bath.ac.uk/campaigns/research-with-impact/

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JOURNAL

Human Resource Management Journal

DOI

10.1111/1748-8583.12536 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Emotions careers: The interplay between careers and emotions in professional organisations

 

Study proposes new explanation for California anchovy booms and busts

Despite the ecological and economic importance of anchovy off California, their population’s characteristic rises and falls have remained mysterious for decades

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - SAN DIEGO

 

IMAGE: 

A NORTHERN ANCHOVY LARVA (25 MM LONG) COLLECTED DURING BIOLOGICAL SURVEYS AND PRESERVED IN FORMALIN.
CREDIT: RASMUS SWALETHORP

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CREDIT: CREDIT: RASMUS SWALETHORP

New research from Scripps and NOAA scientists has discovered ecological correlations that could help explain the booms and busts of California’s anchovy population. If the correlations hold up to further research, they could one day help inform management of California’s anchovy fishery and improve conservation.

The Northern Anchovy (Engraulis mordax) is a crucial food source for much of California’s most conspicuous marine life – including droves of sea lions, pods of dolphins, lucrative tuna fisheries, and throngs of whales. But one of the hallmarks of the anchovy population off California is the cycle of booms and busts that can last for more than a decade. These ups and downs reverberate through the entire marine ecosystem, with busts at times contributing to starving sea lion pups or leading brown pelicans to abandon their chicks. 

Exactly what drives these booms and busts has remained elusive despite decades of scientific study, notably by the CalCOFI research program which is cooperatively run by UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the California Department of Fish and Wildlife. The program surveys marine ecosystems up and down the California coast and is one of the largest and longest ocean monitoring programs in the world. 

The study, published December 5 in Nature Communications and funded by NOAA and the National Science Foundation, points to the marine ecosystem surrounding newly hatched  anchovies known as larvae. The researchers analyzed 45 years-worth of anchovy larvae collected during CalCOFI surveys and found that the length of the food chain supporting the larvae strongly correlates with anchovy population booms and busts. Specifically, shorter food chains preceded booms and longer ones preceded busts. Shorter larval food chains have fewer steps of one animal eating another between the photosynthetic phytoplankton harvesting the sun’s energy at the base of the food chain and the larvae, which eat mostly zooplankton. 

Rasmus Swalethorp, the study’s lead author and an associate project scientist at Scripps, said one of the likely explanations for this correlation is that shorter food chains are more efficient and result in more energy from the base of the food chain reaching the anchovy larvae. Swalethorp said this is because each time organisms from different parts of the food chain consume each other there is a loss of energy that is known to occur. 

“It’s analogous to the energy loss that occurs when electricity goes from the power plant to our homes – the longer the distance, the more energy gets lost along the way,” said Swalethorp. “That’s how it is going from one level of a food chain to the next – the more steps, the less energy gets to the anchovy larvae. The larvae could be eating the exact same foods but when the food chain elongates it may mean food is less plentiful or that the same foods don’t contain as much energy.”

As a result, a shorter food chain can likely support more individual anchovy larvae.

Swalethorp began the research behind this paper in 2014, hoping to use the strength of CalCOFI’s sampling program to better understand the mechanisms underpinning the rises and falls of this crucial player in the California Current Ecosystem.

“The ocean is a very big place and our ability to sample it in a way that’s representative is very limited,” said Swalethorp. “CalCOFI is the most comprehensive ocean ecosystem survey on the planet and it’s the best shot we have at getting at these bigger ecological mechanisms.”

Specifically, the researchers wanted to test the idea that a key determinant of how many Northern Anchovy survive the dangers of larval life in a given year is the structure of the food chain those larvae participate in. To do this, the researchers used stable nitrogen isotope analysis to determine food chain length for 207 roughly three-week-old anchovy larvae collected by the CalCOFI program between 1960 and 2005.

In 2020, the team published a paper detailing this method of estimating food chain length in chemically preserved fish, which rests on the basic idea that when one organism eats another, the consumed creature leaves a chemical signature in the tissues of its consumer. In this case, the analysis doesn’t reveal the precise identity of who was eating whom but could be used to infer how many links were in the food chain between the phytoplankton and the anchovy larvae. 

The analysis revealed that shorter larval food chains tended to precede periods of booming anchovy populations by a year or two, and longer larval food chains were associated with depressed anchovy numbers in the following one to two years. Additionally, the changes in food chain length persisted throughout most of the boom and bust phases.

As for how and why food chain length might increase or decrease from year to year, Swalethorp offered some potential explanations. 

“Young anchovy larvae are very susceptible to starvation, and their survival really depends on the efficiency by which energy reaches them,” said Swalethorp. “If the food chain is short and efficient, that likely helps more larvae survive, which can help drive a boom cycle in the next year or two.” 

Because the current study can’t identify the individual species in the longer and shorter food chains it found, Swalethorp said the study can’t explain why longer food chains correlate to anchovy busts and vice versa. Regardless of why this correlation exists, Swalethorp said a larval food chain index – a yearly measurement of larval food chain length using stable nitrogen isotopes – could potentially be a useful tool for estimating anchovy population trends in the near future, but that more research is needed to explore its potential.

Swalethorp also noted that while larval food chain length appears to have been an important driver during the studied period, other important drivers exist and their relative importance likely varies over space and time.     

In the future, Swalethorp said extending the study’s time series to the present would be fascinating, because the current analysis does not cover the years following 2015 when anchovy populations once again boomed off California. He also said the team is beginning to probe the complex questions of who exactly is eating whom when the food chains elongate as well as what is triggering these changes at the base of the food chain.

Beyond this, the true test of this correlation’s explanatory power will be when the researchers attempt to apply it to other regions and other species of fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) – the single largest fishery in the world.

The study was co-authored by Michael Landry, Brice Semmens, Mark Ohman, and Lihini Aluwihare of Scripps as well as Dereka Chargualaf and Andrew Thompson of NOAA Fisheries Service, and in collaboration with the CCE-LTER program.

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JOURNAL

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-023-42966-0 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Anchovy boom and bust linked to trophic shifts in larval diet

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

5-Dec-2023

U$A

Pharmacy forecast identifies growing societal challenges expected to impact care

Ultra-high-cost drugs likely to lead to health-system service-line closures

Peer-Reviewed Publication

ASHP (AMERICAN SOCIETY OF HEALTH-SYSTEM PHARMACISTS)

BETHESDA, Maryland (December 4, 2023) — Societal issues — including the growth in ultra-high-cost treatments, the epidemic of mental health and substance use disorders, climate change, and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI)— could alter how health systems serve their communities within five years, according to the latest annual ASHP/ASHP Foundation Pharmacy Forecast Report. The 2024 Pharmacy Forecast, released today at the ASHP Midyear Clinical Meeting & Exhibition, drew its findings from a survey of more than 250 pharmacy leaders from across the United States on key topics impacting health systems.

“This 12th annual Pharmacy Forecast contains topics of broad healthcare importance underscoring societal challenges that will likely drive profound changes to healthcare delivery, including not only our practices as pharmacists, but even the future structure of our health systems,” said ASHP CEO Paul W. Abramowitz, PharmD, ScD (Hon), FASHP. “As healthcare evolves at an unprecedented pace, pharmacists’ engagement is crucial to ensuring safe and effective care for all patients.”

Ultra-high-cost drugs

The rise of innovative and ultra-high-cost new treatments, which often come with complex delivery systems, provide new hope for preventing, curing, and treating devastating diseases. These treatments, which can cost millions of dollars per patient, may fundamentally alter how health systems deliver care. More than three-quarters of survey respondents indicate formulary and policy decisions for ultra-high-cost drugs will be made by payers or service-line stakeholders, weakening the scope of the pharmacy and therapeutics committees, which have led the selection of drugs provided by health systems for decades. In addition, 77% of survey respondents believe that it is somewhat to very likely the cost and complexity of new treatments will result in the termination of service lines within some health systems.

The report recommends pharmacy leaders collaborate with health-system finance experts to assess the financial risk associated with the provision of ultra-high-cost drugs to ensure long-term program feasibility and sustainability.

Mental health and substance use disorders

In the 2024 survey, 71% of participants noted pharmacists are well prepared to initiate and modify medication treatment plans for individuals with substance use disorders. Pharmacy Forecast authors recommend health-system leaders integrate the expertise of pharmacists into innovative strategies to bridge gaps in treating substance use and mental health disorders.

“An ‘all-hands’ approach is needed so that everyone involved in direct care increases their skills and knowledge in mental health,” said Joseph T. DiPiro, PharmD, editor of the Pharmacy Forecast. “To do this, we need health systems to develop additional infrastructure and support. Providing mental health first-aid training to healthcare workers should be as common as CPR training.”

Public health emergencies  

Survey participants expect the frequency of public health emergencies related to climate change to double in coming years, affecting health systems and the communities they serve.  Pharmacy departments should continue to engage in the emergency response of health systems by taking part in routine assessments of disaster preparedness. Pharmacists’ knowledge and abilities are essential to managing supply chain disruptions, contingency staffing, and coordination with local public health and community groups.

Artificial intelligence

The growth of AI in healthcare is a double-edged sword, bringing potential rewards and risks. Most survey respondents (86%) believe AI technology can provide automated drug dosing adjustments based on things like kidney function, weight, and age; and more than half of respondents believe advanced technologies, including AI, will help close the gap on healthcare disparities. At the same time, respondents agree it is crucial to balance patient safety, equity, and security in the implementation of these rapidly advancing technologies. A full 80% expect that a high-profile failure of AI that causes patient harm will accelerate government regulation of AI technology.

“As AI progresses, it is imperative to ensure that the models used in healthcare are unbiased and benefit a diverse population,” said DiPiro. “Health systems should establish AI as a strategic priority and engage pharmacists’ expertise to optimize its safe, ethical, and equitable use.”

The Pharmacy Forecast is published online ahead of print and will appear in print in the January 15, 2024, issue of AJHP. The Pharmacy Forecast report was supported by a donation from Omnicell Inc. to the David A. Zilz Leaders for the Future Fund of the ASHP Foundation.

 

About ASHP

ASHP is the largest association of pharmacy professionals in the United States, representing 60,000 pharmacists, student pharmacists, and pharmacy technicians in all patient-care settings, including hospitals, ambulatory clinics, and health-system community pharmacies. For over 80 years, ASHP has championed innovation in pharmacy practice, advanced education and professional development, and served as a steadfast advocate for members and patients. In addition, ASHP is the accrediting body for pharmacy residency and technician training programs and provides comprehensive resources to support pharmacy professionals through every stage of their careers. For more information, visit ashp.org and ASHP’s consumer website, SafeMedication.com.

 

About the ASHP Foundation

The ASHP Foundation was established in 1968 by ASHP as a nonprofit, tax-exempt organization. As the philanthropic arm of ASHP, the Foundation shares ASHP's vision that medication use will be optimal, safe, and effective for all people all of the time. Our mission is to support ASHP by advancing the professional practice of pharmacists and the pharmacy workforce by funding research and education that improves health outcomes through optimal, safe, and effective medication use. To learn more about the Foundation’s programs, visit ashpfoundation.org.

 

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JOURNAL

American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Survey

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Pharmacy Forecast 2024: Strategic Planning Guidance for Pharmacy Departments in Hospitals and Health Systems

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

15-Jan-2024