Wednesday, November 06, 2024

The Sustainability Scam: How Self-Interest Ruins Good Ideas


 November 6, 2024
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Photo by Mika Baumeister

We have laws to ensure children are born into a safe, sustainable, and unpolluted environment. These laws are also meant to empower future generations and guarantee birth equity. But far from ensuring that these rights are upheld, we disfranchise children at birth because they do not have a legal say in the actions of adults that impact their future.

Our ill-advised desire to prioritize economic growth over children’s futures has led to the climate crisis. It has also led to children being born into unequal conditions where they do not have equal access to welfare resources. This has resulted in the impacts of environmental degradation being felt unequally among different socioeconomic groups. Poor people, Indigenous groups, and people of color are, by and large, impacted more by the degraded environment than the wealthy and white segment of the population. This is the tragic legacy of environmental racism, which has been referred to as “the new Jim Crow.”

Those most affected by these injustices often have little or no say in shaping policies and laws, and their children eventually inherit this unequal system. In a capitalist, profit-driven economy, it is unsurprising that the corporate sector, driven by financial concerns above all else, is the biggest culprit in perpetuating these wrongs—particularly the extractive industries and industrial agriculture.

The Misinformed Power Grab

Most leaders—and the biggest beneficiaries of an unequal society—never came close to protecting children from the harm caused by the development model favored by the rich world. Instead, poor children grow up in a world to face the repercussions of a power grab by wealthy, primarily white, families.

The first misstep of dissociating the connection between human rights and environmental sustainability was taken in 1948 when the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) was signed, establishing fundamental rights for all people.

Twenty years later, in 1968, the United Nations held a conference in Tehran where some groups raised concerns about the impact of population growth (and, by extension, economic growth) on human rights. Despite these efforts, the concerns were never resolved, and the relevant changes were never incorporated into the UDHR.

Fixing the Problem: Laws, Norms, and Reparations

The UN’s ill-informed, misguided policy decision has led to a socioeconomic system built on the disenfranchisement of children at the time of their birth. There is an urgent requirement to rectify this situation and secure their welfare.

Firstly, reparations are needed. The wealth made through this process of disenfranchisement must be used to secure the future of newborn children who are entering the world. Those wealthy individuals and corporations that have benefited most from this disenfranchisement (and may have promoted ignorance by glossing over the actual impacts of economic growth) should be held especially responsible.

Secondly, we must establish laws and norms that ensure that the rights and welfare of unborn children are accounted for in the democratic process and that human beings are not merely seen as a means to sustain and grow economies. We must shape a future where children are not born simply to become consumers or workers but as fully participatory citizens with agency over their lives, with the ability to choose and thrive instead of merely surviving.

While Effective Altruism and other movements based on financial investments are often viewed by many nonprofits as effective ways to resolve these issues, reparations are the most effective and immediate way to fix problems facing us today if we want to restore the natural balance. If we skip this crucial step, it would be the equivalent of building a house with no foundation.

The Sustainability Scam

Sustainability has become a buzzword among environmentalists, CEOs, and politicians. Leaders often present themselves as guardians of a better future, bragging about eco-friendly projects and sustainable methods. However, a closer look exposes a darker aspect to these assertions. The rhetoric and reality frequently diverge significantly, with racial disparities, self-interest, and uneven growth undermining various projects’ ostensible benefits.

Nonprofits working toward social, economic, and environmental changes must also include family planning in their goals. They must first help ensure the shared, inclusive equity of children born into the world. That means giving all newly born human beings an equal capacity to self-determine the social and ecological influences that others have over them.

In his 2018 book Winners Take All, The Elite Charade of Changing the World, Anand Giridharadas examines how the global elite’s efforts to “change the world” are only an attempt to retain the status quo. He argues that their actions to try and resolve problems are a bid to hide their role in creating the problems in the first place. Publishers Weekly called the book a “damning portrait of contemporary American philanthropy.”

But Giridharadas—and publications like the New York Times—have missed the biggest charade—the one mainly driving the suffering and death unfolding as temperatures increase. This “sustainability scam” has at least two standards for activist campaigns that claim to be sustainable, green, humane, democratic, eco-friendly, etc. There is one standard for wealthy investors (and their children), who often fund organizations that promote these terms, hoping that their work might have an impact in furthering them, and a different standard based on birth equity.

These standards are artificial, arbitrary, and designed to allow a particular form of economic growth that benefits some—mainly the white population—at a deadly cost to others. This first standard—anthropocentric and adopted in 1968 by the UN agencies bowing to wealthy families—does not require birth equity. It functions on unsustainable welfare as the primary currency or value.

This first standard allows significant deviation from the ecosocial baselines and ecocentric standards that would have prevented the climate crisis. These real standards can be measured along at least eight metrics like restorative levels of greenhouse gas emissions and inclusive representative ratios that ensure a healthy, functional democracy. Deviation from these standards—based on self-determination or freedom and equitable share in democracy—has led to the climate crisis that is killing millions.

Funders in the polluter nations facing significant climate liability fund various institutions—media, nonprofits, universities, agencies, think tanks, and celebrities—to spread disinformation to support the first standard. This allows wealthy families to treat inherited wealth and other privileges as something outside the realm of the democratic process, which they use to strengthen their positionality and growth to systematically disenfranchise the average voter. We are now at a place where they can use the wealth they made through the scam to attack the democratic process and try to step outside of it.

An effort is underway at the United Nations that requires assessments of climate damages. This includes the need to 1) ensure that ecocentric standards are adopted to account for the actual harm being done by the crisis and 2) to treat these standards and the recovery of climate reparations as the first and overriding human rights, a right that preempts the government’s authority to assign wealth contrary to it, and allows citizens to engage in preemptive acts of self-defense to protect themselves and their children.

Inequitable Growth Policies

As a fundamental right, people who are made vulnerable by the actions of others—like fenceline communities put in harm’s way by petrochemical plants being built in their backyards—are owed compensation. As millions die in a climate crisis resulting from inequitable growth policies undoing most mitigation efforts, questions arise about how that happened and who should be held accountable.

We can see the imbalance in how the climate crisis disproportionately impacts those who are least responsible for causing it. In 2022, Seth Borenstein and Drew Costley of the Associated Press reported that “the data shows that the top carbon emitter over time, the United States, has caused more than $1.9 trillion in climate damage to other countries from 1990 to 2014, including $310 billion in damage to Brazil, $257 billion in damage to India, $124 billion to Indonesia, $104 billion to Venezuela and $74 billion to Nigeria. But at the same time, the United States’ carbon pollution has benefited the U.S. by more than $183 billion, while Canada, Germany, and Russia have profited even more from American emissions.”

This problem can no longer be ignored if we want to secure our children’s future. We must work toward resolving the social and economic disparities, increasing access to welfare measures, and ensuring better resources for pregnant women and families.

Ensuring Child Rights

There is a minimum threshold of well-being for birthing a child, which is necessary for self-determination. We must take drastic measures to ensure all children have the resources to become self-determining individuals. This could involve seizing resources from well-defended enclaves of wealth. By doing so, potential mothers might be incentivized to plan for their children’s future, knowing these resources would be available.

Some will argue that reduced economic growth, for example, is too high a cost to pay for ensuring birth equity and access to the same welfare opportunities for all children, especially those from BIPOC communities. However, these minimum thresholds are essential in forming a just and equitable society. People who argue against these basic standards threaten who we aspire to be as a society. They are more interested in exploiting humans and the environment for their gains, rather than investing in a better future. They threaten our freedom.

It’s physically impossible to have a legally obligating “we” that precedes all legitimate national constitutions without measurable birth equity. As the work done by the United Nations shows, no one gets to use authority and state violence to benefit at a cost to others without incurring significant risk. It is important to see beyond the lies perpetuated between 1948 and 1968 to make us think that national sovereignty is magically inherent. It has to be derived from the measurable sovereignty or self-determination of its subjects.

The only way to ensure share equity is to entitle would-be parents to bring children into the world only after a certain threshold of planned conditions, measurable on the eight metrics, have been achieved. The wealth accumulated by exploiting nature, which led to the climate crisis, must be used to ensure these conditions.

The United States prides itself on being a free nation but uses the concept of freedom that starts by exploiting the most vulnerable. There is no minimum threshold of well-being for future children and animals, as they are seen as a means to growing economies rather than individuals with rights who form integral parts of society.

Converting democracies into unsustainable growth economies that enrich a few by diluting everyone else’s equal and influential equity shares in our political system is a subtle form of oppression. It leads to millions dying as the growth triggers catastrophic heat waves. This eventually results in justified resistance movements to protest against the scam, where those at the top of the economic pyramid benefitted from a society that promised an inclusive democracy, which is instead based on shared inequity.

“While there is no ‘optimal’ human population, the evidence suggests that a sustainable global population of 3 billion is an optimistic number given that we long ago entered a continuously intensifying state of ecological overshoot, accumulating ever more massive amounts of ecological debt that must be paid down if we are to avoid the ongoing (and ever-worsening) climate catastrophe, ecological destruction, and the resulting human misery,” Dr. Christopher K. Tucker, chairman of the American Geographical Society, said in an October 2024 email.

“Adding 80 million additional people to the planet each year—the equivalent of 10 New York Cities or an additional Germany each year—is not a recipe for addressing this polycrisis,” he said. “Fortunately, simply investing (heavily) in empowering strategies focused on women and girls worldwide can hasten the already inevitable demographic transition that would relieve the unrelenting pressure we have foisted on our planet—and help us meet our commitments to the next generation under the UN’s 1959 Declaration of the Rights of the Child.”

The wealthy need to pay the cost of creating an unequal system that benefits them instead of ensuring equal and inclusive participation by all citizens in that system. They profit from treating children as part of a labor force to build and grow economies, instead of securing their rights as part of human rights and the democratic process.

Many involved in prioritizing birth equity have seen a pattern in how they react to it: they do not offer counterarguments to the idea that restoring nature through ecosocial birth equity must be the first and overriding human right but resort to tactics to evade the issue.

These people share a common trait: They attempt to evade being held responsible for the deadly costs and lush benefits of their birth, developmental, and emancipatory positionality. Their phrasing varies from “I’m just trying to save these specific animals” to “I’m just trying to focus on this specific area of research.” That kind of siloed myopia ultimately destroys biodiversity and causes irreversible environmental damage.

True Sustainability Means Having Children in a Very Different Way

These deceptive tactics undermine the promise of sustainability, allowing leaders to project a false image of environmental stewardship while continuing harmful practices. To achieve genuine sustainability, we must demand transparency, hold organizations accountable, and ensure that the benefits of sustainable development are distributed equitably. Addressing these systemic issues is the only way toward a sustainable and just future.

Many willing to benefit at a deadly cost to others want to treat the birth of children as unrelated to their lives. It is not. It is the basis of all things: a commitment to our most fundamental aspirations. Do we care about each other or exploit each other? While economics has dominated the social sciences because humans predictably try to maximize their welfare, it is also clear that many people choose criteria for truth and value that reaffirm their birth and developmental positionality.

That’s a dangerous form of self-deception, but understanding its existence allows us to move beyond economics, beyond capitalism versus socialism, and toward unifying constitutionality. We can’t change lives for the better if disproportionately influential people have the power to define what good is. Recognizing this fact is essential to hold those who evade our obligations to birth equity accountable—so that we all can work together to know what’s right and work toward taking remedial steps to prevent further environmental damage.

How could you know how much welfare you deserve if you are not involved in making the rules determining welfare? We can’t create economic demand by violating neonatal rights. We can’t ensure economic growth by preventing all citizens from being born and raised in town halls and participating in the democratic process. Using specific ecosocial thresholds to reform birth and development rights ensures an equal and influential role in rulemaking, thus limiting the influence others have over you to live in relative self-determination. Given the exponential difference between the wealth of Black and white children, massive reforms are necessary to achieve equity.

Countries cannot legitimately undercut the sovereignty of their subjects by ignoring children’s birth and development entitlements, using those children instead as economic inputs to create ecologically deadly growth. Nations and many powerful interests within them have, while responding to the “baby bust” of falling fertility rates, openly admitted to doing this. Part of creating deadly growth is to offer tax cuts to women for having children.

In the book Walden by Henry David Thoreau, we learn that a basket weaver could not expect to succeed in the “free” markets created by those colonizing his lands. But even Thoreau missed the fundamental value of nature in constituting the creation of power relations toward equity and freedom. Laws that protect the beneficiaries of any political system only derive their legitimacy by including and empowering future generations—in a measurable way—rather than exploiting them.

This article was produced by Earth | Food | Life, a project of the Independent Media Institute.

Transition, What Transition? Counting the Cost of a Greener Tomorrow



 November 6, 2024
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Photo by Michael Marais

With another annual UN Conference of the Parties (COP) on climate change starting again next week, it is worth accessing the ongoing transition from burnt fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) to manufactured renewables (wind, sun, and storage) as global warming continues to rise beyond known comfort levels. Since last year’s COP, the number-one greenhouse gas (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2) reached 422.0 ppm up from 418.5 ppm, while the number-two GHG methane (CH4) rose from 1915.7 to 1921.8 ppb. That’s another 50 billion tons added to an already edgy atmosphere, resulting in more heat, more moisture, and more damage. As for the transition, are we doing better, worse, or just the same-old business as usual? That depends on who you ask and the time frame.

Like it or not, we are all children of the Oleaginous Age. Petroleum is everywhere, like a stain that won’t go away. From Edwin Drake’s initial Titusville, Pennsylvania, find in 1859 to today’s 100 million barrels of oil consumed daily across the globe, we can’t get enough of the black stuff – to run our cars, heat our homes, and make our plastics. The list of petroleum-derived products is the story of modernity, including kerosene, gasoline, and heating oil, as well as numerous hydrocarbon-based products such as propane cooking stoves, butane lighters, pen ink, vinyl records, shingles, asphalt, pharmaceuticals, and even chemotherapy medications. At the same time, the global population continues to rise with increased energy use, passing 1 billion in 1804, 2 billion in 1927, 4 billion in 1974, and 8 billion two years ago, all because of an ever-increasing combustion of fossil fuels.

This year’s COP, number 29, is in Baku, Azerbaijan, on the western edge of the Caspian Sea, called the “new oil El Dorado” since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Together, the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea hold two-thirds of known oil reserves (with Iran in the middle). One might think a UN conference on climate change might be better set elsewhere than a major petroleum-producing country. Indeed, reporting on the progress between nationally stated 2015Paris Agreement commitments and actual emissions, Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rated Azerbaijan’s climate action “Critically insufficient,” citing a 20% increase in GHG emissions by 2030, contrary to its declared Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to keep warming to at least 1.5 ÂºC. Rather than providing leadership, “Azerbaijan appears to have abandoned its 2030 emissions target, moving backward instead of forward on climate action.”

Azerbaijan has always been at the forefront of a global petroleum industry, thanks to its plentiful reserves and the invention of more mechanized extraction methods in a newly industrializing world, producing half of the world’s oil by the 1900s. Initially turned into kerosene for Russian lamps, the oil was soon refined as gasoline for a growing automobile industry, bunker fuel for ships, and diesel to turn the engines of industry. In time, the output from Bakucompeted for the lucrative Russian market with Standard Oil and John D. Rockefeller.

That venture was backed by Rothschild family money and the technical expertise of three brothers – Robert, Ludvig, and Alfred Nobel. The Nobel Brothers Petroleum Producing Company, a.k.a. Branobel, launched the first successful bulk tanker on the inland Caspian Sea, helping Branobel to capture half of the Russian kerosene market via the Volga River. More tankers were launched from the Black Sea as Baku oil was transported through the Caucasus Mountains by train to the Georgian port of Batumi via the Transcaucasus Railway and by pipeline, the route cleared with considerable quantities of a revolutionary new explosive developed by the youngest Nobel brother Alfred. Producing 30% of the world market, Branobel soon rivaled Rockefeller’s Standard Oil. Today’s revamped oil El Dorado is well-placed to provide even more oil and gas in the coming years, helping to counter lost Russian supplies in an energy-thirsty Europe.

With COP29 in Azerbaijan and COP28 in the United Arab Emirates, a pattern is emerging – the UAE’s Paris 1.5 ºC agreement reduction plans were also rated by CAT as “Critically insufficient.” Why not just alternate Houston and Riyadh to shorten the boardroom directives? With roughly 16% of global reserves, Saudi Arabia (“Critically insufficient”) exports more than a tenth of global oil, while number-one producer, the United States (“insufficient”), consumes more than two-tenths. Costa Rica, Chile, or Norway (“Almost sufficient”) would seem to be better choices, that is, if we want to learn about how some countries are reducing emissions. But no one wants to rock that boat. Business as usual is the goal.

Change always comes at a cost. To change the world’s liquid fuel and electrical grid supply from brown to green, the costs are extraordinary, where profits are measured in trillions of dollars by today’s Seven Sisters and various national oil companies such as Saudi Aramco (2022 profits: ExxonMobil – $59 billion, Shell – $40 billion, Chevron – $37 billion, TotalEnergies – $36 billion, BP – $28 billion, ConocoPhillips – $19 billion, ENI – $15 billion; Aramco $120 billion). We are all being restricted by their organized refusal to change.

As philosopher and science historian Thomas S. Kuhn noted in his 1962 book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, “Paradigms gain their status because they are more successful than their competitors in solving a few problems that the group of practitioners has come to recognize as acute.” This was the case when coal replaced wood as more energy density was needed to fuel the Industrial Revolution, while the internal combustion engine blew away its horse-powered competition to provide a reliable means of transportation, but is now “shifting” again because of another acute problem as global warming generates more extreme weather and combustion pollution continues to kill millions every year.

Unfortunately, we can’t expect much shifting if oil continues to run the COP climate change show. Indeed, Azerbaijan is already planning to expand its fossil fuel production over the next decade, primarily through natural gas exports to the European market to replace Russian supplies. As noted in an Urgewald report on Azerbaijan’s state oil company, entitled “SOCAR – Azerbaijan’s Fossil Fuel Proxy,” there is an “alarming conflict of interest” between such a “deeply political organization and the Azerbaijani President’s ties to the company.” As at COP29, expect updates about side deals to secure new distribution contracts (and pipeline transit fees) from Azerbaijan.

The transition is being slowed by unwilling participants, disregard of agreed policy, and standard structural inertia. Of 39 countries plus the EU that account for 85% of global emissions assessed by Climate Tracker Action, none are on track to meet their legally binding 2015 Paris Agreement goal. Not a single country is “1.5 C Paris agreement compatible.” The two most populous – China and India – are rated “Highly insufficient,” while the EU as a whole is “Insufficient.” Expecting GHGs to peak by 2025 and temperatures to stop rising is a fairytale.

And despite a record amount of renewable energy installed last year, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts oil will become cheaper in the next decade and more abundant as renewables continue growing, increasing consumption and further stressing an already fragile global ecosystem. A transition is meant to replace the old, not augment the new.

With global warming threatening long-standing ways of life, including changed agriculture, eroded shorelines, and increasingly unstable weather events, we should be doing everything we can to avoid higher costs. Instead we get more bad weather, such as horrendous flash flooding in parts of eastern Spain last week that left more than 200 people dead after a year’s rain fell in just 8 hours. Warmer sea temperatures create more moisture, while a hotter atmosphere holds more moisture (7% more water for every degree C increase). Humans can no longer contain the growing threat.

There are successes to applaud, driven mostly by industry innovation. Solar cell and wind turbine costs continue to drop. In the last decade, solar photovoltaic (PV) costs dropped by 90%, onshore wind by 70%, and chemical storage batteries by over 90%. Much less polysilicon is now required to make a PV cell (87% reduction in volume/watt in two decades). The US National Renewable Energy Laboratory publishes its light-to-power conversion chart, showing how innovation increases cell efficiency year on year – 85 groups are represented, including perennial stalwarts ARCO, FirstSolar, and UNSW.

New ways of employing solar are appearing, including canal canopies that lower evaporation, floating solar, and “agrovoltaics” that make use of neglected space and can help farmers to “double crop.” China continues to install more PV solar and produces almost 80% of all solar panels, while its Wind Base program is on track to reach 400 GW by 2030 and 1,000 GW by 2050 for a total national penetration covering two-thirds of its existing electrical grid from wind power alone.

The UK quit coal after 142 years, closing its last coal-fired power plant in September. The 60-year-old thermal coal plant near Nottingham ended Britain’s historic coal past, although a new record was set in 2023 for global coal consumption led by China. Not exactly the agreed-upon “phase down” of coal reached at COP26 in Glasgow. The achievement is also dubious given that biomass is now being burnt as a replacement fuel in converted coal plants, which is worse for the environment than coal. Cutting down trees, shipping them across the Atlantic (much of UK biomass comes from the eastern United States), and burning them as pellets is not a success. If one wants to reduce global warming, the easiest solution is to plant more trees, not cut more down. The UK National Grid, however, is now increasingly powered by plentiful offshore wind farms.

“Drill baby drill” is still the mantra of most politicians in the United States regardless of party stripe, whether explicitly by Donald Trump or in reality by Joe Biden as the US continues to increase oil production and export more fracked natural gas. Despite signing the Inflation Reduction Act that included $369 billion in green investments over a decade, the Biden Administration also increased drilling permits and exports. Maximizing oil output and selling abroad is not a strategy for reduction. Change is never easy – no one gives up their billions for nothing.

Just as worrisome is the push for increased nuclear power, especially in China and India, as the World Nuclear Association reported four new plants built in 2024 while construction began on eight more (six in China). Ambitious tech companies are also calling for nuclear plants to run their expanding data centers, claiming a supposed green cred. Elsewhere, the world is cautious as in the UK, now on the hook for £136 billion and counting in cleanup costs at Sellafield, site of the world’s first commercial grid-tied nuclear power plant in 1956.

Nuclear power is inherently dangerous, comes with unsafe carbon-intensive mining practices (thus not clean or green), endless waste problems (a.k.a. “nuclear eternity”), can be re-engineered for weapons, and is expensive (never mind the subsidies). According to Lazard, a US-based investment group that calculates the real costs of energy via its Levelized Cost of Energy metric, nuclear is more than three times as expensive as renewables ($226/MWh versus $74/MWh PV and $59/MWh onshore wind), while costs continue rising each year – a reverse learning curve where prices go up with experience rather than down. The blatantly false “too cheap to meter” PR is finally being called out.

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption is increasing and is essential to reduce petroleum dependence, albeit unevenly – Norway boasts almost 100% sales with an average of 20% worldwide. China leads the way with half of all new EVs sold (a.k.a. new-energy vehicles), while developing countries are starting to pick up the slack on percentage installed renewables to provide the clean fuel. Critical resources required for EV batteries are still controlled by foreign companies in China and the US, such as lithium from South America and cobalt from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, extracted with little concern for local needs and rerouted to richer manufacturing countries. New supply lines are being created to maximize output without guaranteeing safety along the way.

EVs are particularly important to clean our polluted cities and waterways, but adoption is being stalled by short-sighted government policy. EVs are in fact much cleaner, safer and easier to drive, while reducing our reliance on petroleum. Price is the main reason holding back wider EV adoption. Chinese manufacturer BYD’s smallest compact, the Seagull, costs about $12,000, while a Nissan Leaf is about $28,000 and the cheapest Tesla $44,000. Although running costs are less for an EV, most consumers still can’t afford a low-end EV let alone a higher-priced Tesla. With 100% tariffs imposed in North America and the EU, prices will rise even more.

Tariffs are about jobs and containing Chinese dominance, yet come at huge retaliatory costs in our interconnected trading world. Asking China to cut down GHG emissions from fossil fuels while blocking its growing renewables industry is also counterproductive, what China’s foreign minister Wang Yi called “pan-securitism and protectionism.” Protectionist tit-for-tat policies are already impacting consumers as China threatens Canada with canola tariffs and Spain worries about pork products. Contrary to coordinating EU strategy, Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanchez asked the European Commission to reconsider the tariffs. But Spain isn’t as dependent on car sales as Germany, the de facto EU engine.

Tariffs may protect local jobs and buy time, but the consumer is stuck paying for the short-sightedness of Western carmakers slow to adapt to new competition, just as German and Japanese undercut the Big Three on cost and style in the 1970s. A better approach is to increase subsidies to local manufacturers, lowering production costs and sticker prices. Imagine if long-established carmakers tried reverse engineering Chinese designs that are already more than a decade ahead, just as Chinese carmakers did to build their envious market share. Imagine if governments offered more investment and subsidies both to local and foreign carmakers, forcing a global rethink and ultimately leading to more local manufacturing.

BYD and others have started to build plants in local markets – BYD announced plans for an EV plant in Turkey, its second in Europe after Hungary – but until costs come down consumers and the transition suffer. GM, Ford, and Stellantis (Chrysler) in the US and Volkswagen, BMW, and Volvo in Europe lag behind Chinese sales, while even Tesla has to play catch up to stay in its high-end lane. BYD passed Tesla as the number-one EV seller for the first time this past quarter. In the US, concerns over job losses for the more easily assembled EVs fueled labor complaints amid last year’s UAW strikes, while VW is threatening to lay off thousands of workers and close plants because of a cut to government EV subsidies and the loss of cheap Russian gas.

Indeed, Western automakers are in trouble because of lack of investment and incentives, allowing China to dominate the evolving EV market. But the revolution revolution is here to stay despite the recent slowdown in sales and fears about cheaper Chinese imports. InsideEVs.com writer Kevin Williams noted, “For a long time, Chinese cars really weren’t great. That isn’t true anymore. Chinese EVs are competitive in ways that go beyond just price. They’re stylish, they’re well-made and they work really well.” While it’s true that labor practices and state-controlled government subsidies in China are not as free and fair as in the West, there is no doubt EVs can become more affordable given concerted global agreements and action.

Battery performance is also much improved, increasing overall efficiency, reducing charger anxiety, and speeding up refills. More chargers will help, though new infrastructure has been slow to roll out. One sees chargers scattered here and there, but more are needed, both privately and publicly – soon hotels, motels, and shopping malls will all have chargers, possibly free to use to entice more customers. The chicken-and-egg EV-charger analogy is moot since EVs and charging infrastructure can both evolve separately. Of course, greater EV adoption means less oil.

Is it all just greenwashing then as the oil execs fly in and out of Baku to compare notes and compliment the host county on its fossil fuel expansion plans with a few side deals thrown in? Landlocked Azerbaijan is planning to use Turkey as a natural gas hub at the crossroads of East and West, while Turkey is in talks with Russia to provide more gas to Europe via the Turkstream pipeline in defiance of Western sanctions and ongoing climate concerns. Where better to talk shop than at a talking shop with all the major players? It’s hard to act in the best interest of a warming planet when national goals are the priority.

The scale of what is needed is daunting, but what can any of us do? “Negawatts” is an area we can all make a difference, hopefully not just symbolic. Coined by Rocky Mountain Institute scientist Amory Lovins, any watt we don’t consume is just as valuable to reduce emissions. And despite the slow pace of change, there are simple fixes such as easy-to-install rooftop solar thermal heating, especially in warm-weather climates – no need to use the grid for readily available hot water. There is no need for noisy and polluting gas-powered lawnmowers, leaf blowers, motorcycles, or scooters. Induction stoves save lives as gas-stove pollutants continue to kill tens of thousands of people each year. Paper-packaged condiments, wooden cutlery, and paper bags are an obvious take-out alternative to plastic. We can all make a difference.

As for governments interested in real change, zero-emission thermal plants should be mandatory. Carbon capture is worth exploring, at least for industrial processes, but is expensive, unproven, and is more about keeping petroleum in business. More high-speed rail lines are needed, increased public transport, and people-sized not car-sized cities to reduce energy reliance. If the oil companies weren’t setting the agenda at COP and beyond, there would be a wish list of things to do for consumers and manufacturers – investments, incentives, and infrastructure to build a better tomorrow. Alas, co-opted by oil, the long fossil fuel goodbye continues.

Is there an acceptable meeting point between capitalism and the environment? With a more easily managed command economy, China has carved out an enviable lead in renewables manufacturing, but has much to do to lower GHG emissions. Hopefully by the next COP we will be further on than arguing about non-existent “phase outs” and “phase downs” and can act towards real change.

As noted by Herman Scheer, the German parliamentarian responsible for the 2000 German Renewable Energy Act that spurred on an avant-garde approach to energy technology via consumer subsidies and grid buybacks, “Making the groundbreaking transition to an economy based on solar energy and solar resources will do more to safeguard our common future than any other economic development since the Industrial Revolution.” What is COP waiting for? Gentle men and women, start your electric engines!

John K. Whitea former lecturer in physics and education at University College Dublin and the University of Oviedo. He is the editor of the energy news service E21NS and author of The Truth About Energy: Our Fossil-Fuel Addiction and the Transition to Renewables (Cambridge University Press, 2024) and Do The Math!: On Growth, Greed, and Strategic Thinking (Sage, 2013). He can be reached at: johnkingstonwhite@gmail.com