BACKGROUNDERS
How Assad turned Syria into a narco-state
A video circulating on social media this week shows a warehouse in Syria filled with Captagon. This highly addictive amphetamine-based drug has transformed the country into a narco-state under the rule of former President Bashar al-Assad. The alleged warehouse, reportedly located at a military division headquarters near Damascus under the command of Assad's brother Maher, highlights the scale of Captagon production in Syria.
"Crossing the Syrian border means paying fees to everyone – customs, the army, political security, and especially the Fourth Division," the smuggler told bnm IntelliNews.
"The Fourth Division is untouchable; they control everything and can move through checkpoints like they don't exist. Without them, Captagon smuggling wouldn't happen on this scale."
This elite unit, led by Maher al-Assad, is accused of controlling smuggling operations, including the Captagon trade. It enjoys extensive privileges that allow it to pass through checkpoints with minimal resistance, making it the most influential player in the drug trade.
A former Syrian officer stated that during the war the Fourth Division became a major smuggling route, with officers and soldiers exploiting their influence to smuggle drugs, weapons and goods to extremist elements.
In one instance, authorities in Idlib seized a large shipment containing hundreds of thousands of Captagon pills hidden in a truck from the regime-controlled town of Nubl in northern Aleppo. Over the past two years, Idlib authorities have confiscated more than 3mn Captagon pills.
Maher al-Assad, Bashar's brother, is believed to have orchestrated the promotion of Captagon inside Syria, aiming to generate profits to sustain a regime beset by sanctions and a deteriorating economy. With an average salary of $15 per month, many young people are drawn into working with drug dealers. Smugglers can earn between $10,000 and $14,000 per successful border crossing, though the risks can be fatal. A report by the BBC highlighted the tragic death of a child from the Ramthan clan – killed while smuggling drugs – underscoring the exploitation of children in these operations.
At a US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on Syrian regime crimes in April 2023, it was stated that the drug trade is being used as a strategic tool by the Syrian regime to destabilise neighbouring countries, particularly Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The Fourth Division, led by Maher al-Assad, is the key player behind the trafficking, which generates resources for the regime and weakens its neighbours.
Reports confirm that most of the Captagon comes from regime-controlled areas, where the Fourth Division oversees production and distribution. No smuggler can operate without strong ties to the regime, and civilians, including women and children, are often used to transport the drugs. In opposition-held Idlib, drug shipments are smuggled through border crossings, sometimes hidden in refrigerated trucks.
Several Captagon factories are reported to be operating in regime-controlled areas, exporting their products to neighbouring countries such as the Gulf states and Turkey, as well as to Europe and Africa via the port of Latakia. These operations are believed to be overseen by the Fourth Division in collaboration with influential figures from the Assad family. The Captagon trade is viewed as both an economic and political tool to sustain the regime and destabilise its neighbours. Idlib is not only used as a transit hub for drugs, but its local youth are increasingly at risk from this growing epidemic. The export of Captagon to Gulf countries, Europe, and Africa highlights the far-reaching impact of the trade.
"Party-drug" shaping regional tensions
Described as the "poor man's cocaine," Captagon is a cheap, highly addictive stimulant often linked to violent and psychotic behaviour. Its trade has exploded in recent years, with annual market value estimates running into the billions. Captagon's production has provided an economic lifeline to the Assad regime amidst crippling sanctions imposed by the US and its allies.
In 2022, the US Treasury sanctioned several individuals linked to the Assad regime for their role in facilitating the Captagon trade.
Those sanctioned included two of Assad's cousins and Khalid Qaddour, a close associate of Maher al-Assad, described as a "key producer and facilitator" in the drug's production.
Hezbollah and cross-border trafficking
The trafficking network extends beyond Syria. Jordanian officials have reported a significant increase in drug smuggling across their border, with many shipments being linked to Hezbollah, the Lebanese group heavily involved in facilitating Syria's drug trade. These operations are closely coordinated with Syria's Fourth Division.
The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has identified Syria and Lebanon as major departure points for Captagon shipments, with Saudi Arabia accounting for two-thirds of global seizures. Between 2014 and 2022, Saudi authorities confiscated 700mn Captagon pills smuggled from Lebanon.
Despite the devastating social impact, efforts to address the Captagon crisis have been slow. In 2023, the Biden administration introduced a strategy to combat the trade, focusing on Syria's production and Hezbollah's involvement. However, critics argue that international responses have been inadequate in countering the scale of the trade.
Captagon's expanding reach
Beyond the Gulf, Captagon's influence is spreading, with reports of its presence in North Africa, Europe and Southeast Asia. Its rise underscores the persistent instability in Syria, where both the humanitarian crisis and the emboldened drug trade remain by-products of the regime's survival tactics.
Syria's Captagon industry represents more than a criminal enterprise – it was a cornerstone of the Assad regime's economic and political strategy. Without decisive international action, the drug trade will continue to destabilise the region and pose a growing threat to global security.
In the first five months of 2023, authorities across the Middle East seized over 100mn Captagon pills, the most widely abused drug in the region, particularly among young people. Captagon, originally developed in the 1960s as a legal treatment for conditions such as ADHD, depression and narcolepsy, was withdrawn from the market in the 1980s due to harmful side-effects.
The rising prevalence of Captagon raises serious questions about the effectiveness of regional and international counter-narcotics strategies. This issue is not only about security but also has devastating health and social consequences. Despite official claims from the Syrian government that it is combating drug trafficking, evidence on the ground points to the involvement of powerful factions within the country.
Captagon highlights deep-seated corruption
In a notable case, a truck carrying two tonnes of hashish and 3mn Captagon pills was involved in a traffic accident en route to Tartus. The vehicle had no licence plates, a sign that it was likely connected to security forces or the military. Syrian sources identified the drivers as two brothers from Qardaha, the Assad family's stronghold. One was reported to work for state security, while the other allegedly had direct ties to the ruling family. This incident underscores the role of influential figures in facilitating smuggling operations without interference from security forces.
The issue is deeply rooted in extensive smuggling networks operating across the Lebanese-Syrian border. Lebanese authorities have uncovered large-scale operations to traffic Captagon into Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Investigations revealed the involvement of prominent drug traffickers working in coordination with armed groups and militias linked to the Syrian regime and Hezbollah.
These networks often store Captagon in remote locations before distributing it via an extensive smuggling infrastructure. While initial investigations faced significant challenges due to political interference, recent evidence has highlighted Hezbollah's role in facilitating drug trafficking within its areas of influence. There is also evidence of cooperation between criminal networks and the Syrian government, with drugs being transported across borders using unofficial routes shielded by regime support.
How Captagon broke Lebanon
Captagon has become a major revenue source for various militias and armed groups, including Hezbollah. Profits from the drug trade have funded these groups' activities in Lebanon and Syria, prolonging the Syrian civil war and contributing to Lebanon's internal conflicts.
The trade has also bolstered the political influence of these groups within Lebanon and neighbouring countries, including Iraq. International pressure has mounted on Lebanon and Syria, with sanctions imposed on individuals involved in drug trafficking, including figures within the Syrian regime.
In Lebanon, Captagon poses a serious threat to internal security. Smuggling networks operate in areas such as the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah's influence is strongest. This has made it difficult for Lebanese authorities to dismantle these operations.
Reports indicate that drugs are cultivated and processed in Lebanese territories before being smuggled across borders. In response to the growing international threat, the Lebanese government has implemented stricter anti-narcotics laws and enhanced cooperation with international security agencies. However, political and security challenges within Lebanon limit the effectiveness of these measures.
George W Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” 2003 victory speech aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is memorable for having aged extremely badly, given how Iraq subsequently descended into a full-on hellish sectarian war, with US troops fighting on for eight more years. So you might think Vladimir Putin would have left no hostages to fortune where that particular infamous address from a podium was concerned.
Not so. In a surprise visit to Russia’s Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia Province, northwestern Syria, in December 2017, the Russian president told the assembled airmen and soldiers that it was indeed mission accomplished when it came to Moscow’s military intervention on behalf of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, in the multi-sided Syrian conflict.
So the weekend fall of Assad—whom Moscow, militarily tied up in Ukraine, hardly lifted a finger to help in the face of the lightning offensive that toppled him, though it has at least provided him with asylum in Russia—is egg on the face for Putin and a serious blow for Russia’s prestige.
In shoring up Assad nearly a decade ago, the Kremlin set out to re-assert itself as a global power. Another attraction of the military adventure was securing a foot in the eastern Mediterranean region. In return for saving Assad’s skin, Russia was awarded 49-year leases on the air base in Hmeimim and a naval base in Tartus. Whether Russia will now be forced to beat a retreat from those bases is one of the more intriguing questions thrown up by the hasty exit of Assad.
Should the bases be exposed to attacks from some of the less-than-Russia-friendly militia groups now in the ascendancy in their vicinity, perhaps Putin can cut a deal with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan—who holds plenty of sway with jihadists and other armed groups across northern Syria—for some protection. Not what he had in mind all those years ago addressing Russian servicemen at Hmeimim. Either way, it is pretty much mission demolished.
George W Bush in 2003: Mission accomplished (apart from the eight years of hell to come). (Credit: file photo).
Istanbul Blog
Turkey-backed jihadist groups supported by combat drones sent in by the Turkish armed forces have been attacking the town of Manbij in northern Syria held by Kurdish groups, footage continued to show on December 9.
On December 8, just a few hours after Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) declared Syria’s Assad regime was overthrown, the jihadist groups—which are units within the Syrian National Army (SNA, formerly the Free Syrian Army FSA/OSO)—launched an offensive against the US-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that control the Rojava region.
In the years prior to the Aleppo offensive that quickly culminated in an advance that caused the fall of the Assad regime at the weekend, the HTS dwelled and evolved under the patronage of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s regime on the border with Turkey, while the SNA was directly established by Ankara.
Actin together, the HTS and SNA launched the surprise Aleppo offensive on November 27, a few hours after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon took effect.
Within 12 days, they took over Damascus without facing significant resistance from Assad’s forces. Military analysts assess that in terms of their rate of conquest, they may have broken the record set by the Taliban, which took over Afghanistan in 2021 within three and a half months.
Next stop Iraq?
The Russians look like they may have already traded Syria in the hope of securing some gains in other matters (perhaps the calculation is related to Ukraine, where a ceasefire is cooking with Donald Trump on his way back to the White House on January 20). Iran, meanwhile, has failed to mobilise its proxies in Lebanon, namely Hezbollah, and in Iraq, namely Hasdh-i Shabi.
Since Hamas launched its kamikaze cross-border strike from Gaza against Israel on October 7 last year, Iran has lost its influence in Palestine, Lebanon and Syria. With the fall of Syria, it has also lost its land route connection to Palestine and Lebanon via Syrian territory. Both Palestine and Lebanon are under an Israeli naval and air blockade.
The next stop for Israel, prior to Tehran, looks like Iran’s proxies in Iraq.
Tayyip the Conqueror
If the security conditions allow for it, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan will soon visit Damascus, where he will pray at the Umayyad Mosque in the former Syrian capital (we can say “former capital” because it is questionable right now as to whether a country called Syria still exists).
On December 5, bne IntelliNews reported that the Erdogan regime was hailing its “reconquest of Aleppo”.
This publication also recalled that Erdogan said in 2012, the year after the Syrian conflict ignited: “We’ll go to Damascus soon, inshallah… and we’ll pray at Umayyad Mosque.”
On December 7, this publication reported that Erdogan had set Damascus as the final target for his jihadists.
The Erdogan regime plainly sees the latest developments as Erdogan’s victory over Bashar Assad. That’s not particularly wrongheaded if things are evaluated from a perspective that takes what was a 13-year-long battle between two neighbouring autocrats into account.
In 2011, Erdogan participated in the coalition that came together to overthrow Assad. As of December 2024, Erdogan remains the ruler in Ankara, with his proxies having forced Assad to flee to Moscow.
For those who keep an eye on the mouthpieces of the Erdogan regime, it would be no surprise if Erdogan crowns himself as “Tayyip the Conqueror” at the Umayyad Mosque.
His media will, in any case, go live during his prayers and his trolls will decode the message.
On December 9, cement stocks on Borsa Istanbul jumped to celebrate the boss’ booty, namely Syria, which needs to be reconstructed.
Will Erdogan conquer the Eastern Euphrates too?
Manbij is now the only territory held by the Kurds on the western bank of the Euphrates river since, on December 4, they left some territory, including the town of Tal Rifat, to Erdogan’s jihadists.
Until the fall of Damascus, no significant clash between Erdogan's jihadists and the Kurds in this wave of conflict had taken place as the jihadists were too busy targeting the Assad regime.
The Erdogan regime has for a while now been holding talks with Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan, who has been imprisoned in Turkey since 1999. The direction of the latest round of bargaining with the PKK, designated “terrorist” by Ankara, will be tested out by the developments in Syria.
Since Assad fled, Erdogan and his henchmen have been focusing on the Kurds.
In the years since Moscow intervened in Syria in 2015, Russia and the US have divided its airspace. The US controls the airspace in the eastern Euphrates region.
Consequently, the land held by Kurds on the western bank of the river do not enjoy US cover.
So, the real question is whether Trump will sacrifice the eastern Euphrates region when the Erdogan regime targets it after finishing its business on the western bank by taking over Manbij.
Syrian migrants in Turkey not eager to live under “Taliban II”
Erdogan’s officials have been circulating the idea that the Syrians who fled their homeland for Turkey are now in a rush to return to their country following the exit of Assad.
Based on official Turkish figures, there are around 3-4mn Syrians in Turkey. The actual figure is widely estimated to be around 5-7mn.
The return to Syria of a few thousand pro-jihadist Syrians would not put a dent in the massive problem posed to Turkey by hosting such a huge migrant population.
Looking beyond only Syrians, the total number of irregular immigrants in Turkey is estimated as standing at above 10mn, including 1-2mn Afghans and millions of people from African and other Asian countries.
These people are not in Turkey by choice. Turkey is on the route to Europe. They are largely working and saving up money in Turkey to pay human smugglers who will take them on to developed countries.
Prior to the jihadist takeover of Syria, videos showing beaches and parties in the country got plenty of “hits” and “clicks” in Turkey. Within two weeks, the country has been turned upside down.
Under the rule of the jihadists, Syria will become a second Afghanistan. It will not be an attractive spot for people that dream of a normal life.
What to expect now?
Syria is still in chaos. It is unknown whether the jihadists will be able to put together a functioning state anytime soon.
Opportunistic Israel, meanwhile, has been expanding the Syrian territory it controls in the south (purple on the map), while bombing ammunition sites and equipment left behind by Syria's army.
The Russians have been withdrawing but they still have some personnel and equipment left at their military bases on the Mediterranean coast.
The jihadists have so far not fought each other. In the coming days, as the diplomatic bargaining on the future of the country intensifies, those doing the bargaining—the list currently includes the US, Russia, Iran, Turkey, the UAE, Israel, Qatar and Saudi Arabia among others—will mobilise their proxies among the jihadists to strengthen their hand at the table.
Looking at where we are now, there are presently jihadists (green on the map) and Kurds (yellow) in the country, in addition to limited areas held by Israel and Islamic State (black).
The situation in Syria is precarious and will definitely not stabilise in the coming months, and perhaps not in the coming years.
