Swiss women had more children at start of coronavirus pandemic
University of Zurich
Researchers at UZH have studied the impact of pandemics on the birth rate in Switzerland for the first time. While the number of births unexpectedly rose initially during COVID-19, it fell significantly during previous pandemics in history.
Birth rates are currently declining in Switzerland, just like they are in other European countries. It is well established that the number of births is subject to medium-term fluctuations and also responds to pandemics or crises in the short term. However, there is less detailed research on the most recent trends – especially in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Researchers from the University of Zurich have now examined the monthly birth figures in Switzerland between 1871 and 2022 and placed them in their relevant historical context. They did this using the data that is collected on a regular basis by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO) and the statistics chronicling the natural population change (BEVNAT) from 1987 to 2022. The team compared the monthly recorded statistics with the figures that would have been expected based on the previous year. Besides the long-term trends, the researchers were also particularly interested in earlier and more recent pandemic periods.
Thirteen percent more births during the pandemic
The study shows that the birth rate in Switzerland has generally been declining since around 2018 and is approaching a historical low. But in 2021, which was the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was an unexpected temporary double-digit increase in the number of births of around 13 percent. More babies were conceived in particular in the first year of the pandemic in 2020, during and shortly after the implementation of the lockdown measures. “Our analysis shows that during this period the increase in births was particularly pronounced among Swiss women and mothers over the age of 30,” says lead author Katarina Matthes from the Institute of Evolutionary Medicine.
The authors state that the precise reasons for this brief baby boom have not yet been established. But there are strong indications that the time spent at home and a better work/life balance during the pandemic made people bring forward their plans to get pregnant. In an international comparison, only France displayed a similar trend – Germany, Austria and Italy, by contrast, did not see such a significant increase in the birth rate as Switzerland.
Decline in births from February 2022
But following this temporary rise, from February 2022 Switzerland saw a renewed return to the previous negative trend in the birth rate. This applied in particular to non-Swiss women and mothers under the age of 30. The researchers suspect that in the spring of 2021 young women were being cautious and decided they would rather wait to receive their COVID-19 vaccination before getting pregnant.
In addition, there could be other reasons for the persistent decline in the number of births: “We might be seeing shifting values within society, with young people wanting fewer or even no children at all,” explains Matthes. People perceive their own future to be insecure as a result of economic worries, uncertainty or climate change, and this could help explain the increase in the number of people choosing not to have children. As part of a UZH PRC grant, lead author Kaspar Staub will pursue this question further in an interdisciplinary project together with researchers from the UZH.
Drop in birth rate during previous pandemics
From a long-term perspective, the team of researchers were surprised to find the fluctuations in the birth rate during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, especially compared to other pandemics in the past. “We were able to highlight the fact that the pattern in the birth rate during and after the pandemics from 1889-90, 1918-20 and in 1957, in which a large proportion of the Swiss population fell ill, was different to the one seen during and after the COVID-19 pandemic,” says Kaspar Staub, adjunct professor at the Institute of Evolutionary Medicine.
For example, in the earlier pandemics, there was a drop in the birth rate of around 12 to 25% roughly six to nine months after the peak, but this did not last very long. The likely reasons for this are reduced fertility because of an infection and an increased rate of miscarriage. The authors surmise that the fact that the number of births did not decline in this way during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic is probably because the number of infections in the population at large was relatively low in 2020 thanks to the public-health measures that were taken to protect people.
Literature
Katarina L. Matthes, Mathilde Le Vu, Kaspar Staub. Fertility dynamics through historical pandemics and COVID-19 in Switzerland, 1871–2022. Population Studies, 11 March 2025. Doi: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2462291
Journal
Population Studies
Method of Research
Data/statistical analysis
Subject of Research
People
Article Title
Katarina L. Matthes, Mathilde Le Vu, Kaspar Staub. Fertility dynamics through historical pandemics and COVID-19 in Switzerland, 1871–2022
Article Publication Date
11-Mar-2025
New study reveals COVID-19’s toll on new physicians and rural health care access
Boston, MA – A new study led by the Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute reveals the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on new physicians, highlighting significant shifts in their job market perceptions, compensation trends, and practice location choices.
Findings were published on March 11 in Medical Care.
Physician shortages, especially in rural areas, limit access to health care and lead to poor health outcomes. The COVID-19 pandemic worsened these shortages by causing burnout, early retirements, and increased workforce turnover.
Understanding labor dynamics such as practice preferences, compensation, and incentives is critical for addressing long-term workforce distribution and health care access challenges. While previous research has explored how the pandemic affected existing physicians, the pandemic’s impact on new physicians entering the workforce has been underexplored.
“We found that the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with concerning changes in new physician job market outcomes, especially substantial reductions in new physicians’ likelihood of entering rural practice and compensation,” said Tarun Ramesh, research fellow at the Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute and lead author of the study. “Homing in on the pandemic’s exacerbation of existing disparities draws attention to broader challenges in retaining healthcare talents and the need to ensure equitable access to care.”
The study used data from 31,925 medical residents and fellows participating in the 2010-2022 Survey of Residents Completing Training in New York. Researchers compared outcomes between pre-pandemic (2010–2019) and pandemic (2021–2022) periods, using a series of interrupted time series analyses, controlling for participants’ socio-demographic characteristics.
Key findings:
- Dramatic drop in new physicians entering rural practice: The percentage of new physicians entering rural practice dropped dramatically from 3.4% pre-pandemic to 0.62% during the pandemic, reversing pre-pandemic gains.
- Reduced compensation: Average base salaries decreased by $23,569 on average. The likelihood of receiving additional incentives fell significantly by 2.92%, and salary satisfaction dropped significantly by 2.4%.
- Job market perception: While the likelihood of receiving job offers increased slightly during the pandemic (88.18% vs. 86.60%), perceptions of the job market outlook declined significantly 55.77% vs. 44.13%) without a significant change in accepting a job offer from pre- to during the pandemic.
- Increased subgroup disparities: New primary care physicians experienced larger declines in rural practice rates and compensation compared to non-primary care physicians. Noncitizen international medical graduates faced the largest salary reductions, highlighting vulnerabilities in this group.
Urgent Policy Priorities The study underscores the need for urgent policy interventions to address rural physician shortages and improve compensation structures for new physicians. Recommendations include expanding financial incentives (e.g., loan forgiveness, bonuses) for rural practice, supporting primary care practices financially, and strengthening protections for noncitizen IMGs to ensure equitable compensation and reduce exploitation risks.
The work builds on the authors’ growing portfolio of evidence highlighting growing disparities in the healthcare workforce and potential solutions to mitigate these disparities. “This most recent study shows that while the demand for new physicians remained high during the pandemic, financial pressures on hospitals and practices limited physician compensation and incentives, creating a challenging environment for new physicians entering the workforce,” added senior author Hao Yu, Harvard Medical School associate professor of population medicine at the Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute. “Our findings underscore the need for federal and state-level strategies to stabilize physician compensation and enhance rural healthcare access.”
About the Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute’s Department of Population Medicine
The Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute's Department of Population Medicine is a unique collaboration between Harvard Pilgrim Health Care and Harvard Medical School. Created in 1992, it is the first appointing medical school department in the United States based in a health plan. The Institute focuses on improving health care delivery and population health through innovative research and education, in partnership with health plans, delivery systems, and public health agencies. Follow us on Bluesky, X, and LinkedIn.
Journal
Medical Care
Article Title
Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on New Physician Job Market Outcomes
Article Publication Date
11-Mar-2025
