Monday, September 29, 2025

India’s Rail Revolution: How Agni-Prime Just Changed The Nuclear Deterrence Game Forever – Analysis

  

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On September 24, 2025, India successfully tested the Agni-Prime missile from a rail-based launcher. This was more than just another defence achievement — it marked a major shift in strategic power, placing India among the few nations with mobile nuclear-capable systems. Defence officials called it a “textbook success,” proving India’s advanced technology and clear strategic thinking in today’s complex world.


Rail-based missile deployment is extremely important in today’s warfare and defence strategy. Unlike fixed silos (permanent underground launch sites) or road-based systems, rail launchers provide unmatched mobility and safety. India’s 2,000-km range missiles can be moved anywhere across the 68,000 km railway network, making it impossible for enemies to know their exact location or launch path. This keeps enemies guessing and guarantees that India will still be able to hit back strongly even if attacked first.

The rail-based Agni-Prime offers much more than just mobility. Since it is integrated with India’s existing railway network, it can be moved and operated easily with very little extra logistical support, while keeping the element of surprise. Its ability to travel across the country, launch independently, and use advanced communication systems makes it both strong and quick to respond. Today, with satellites and intelligence tracking every movement, traditional missile bases have become easier targets. In this situation, a rail-based system provides concealment and protection that fixed bases cannot offer.

Looking at the regional balance of power, the impact of India’s rail-based Agni-Prime becomes even clearer. Pakistan, though it has nuclear weapons and missiles, does not have a large or advanced railway network to use such a system effectively. Its railways are smaller and less developed compared to India’s, which makes rail-based deployment difficult both technically and strategically. Instead, Pakistan has mostly relied on road-mobile missiles and aircraft to deliver nuclear weapons. But here too, its geography and limited strategic space create weaknesses and risks.

China, however, already has the technology and a large, modern railway network that could support rail-based missiles. Its missile engineering is advanced enough for such deployments. But historically China’s strategy has favoured underground silos (heavily protected, permanent launch sites) and road-mobile launchers. Their DF-series missiles (Dong Feng family) are designed for this approach, combining silos for protection and mobile launchers for flexibility, ensuring a credible second-strike capability. So, while China could develop rail-based systems, its current strategy — together with vast internal territory and geographic advantages — makes rail launchers less immediately necessary for China than they are for India.

The development of the rail-based Agni-Prime reflects India’s special security needs and geography. India is located between two nuclear-armed neighbours and faces disputed borders on several sides, so it needs a nuclear force that is both credible and able to survive an enemy strike. The rail-based system meets this need by providing a mobile deterrent that can move easily across different terrains while staying linked to the civilian railway network. This makes it very hard for enemies to attack without also risking serious damage to civilian infrastructure.

This successful test is a major technological achievement and should not be underestimated. Building a canister-based missile (a missile kept in a sealed protective tube or container, which shields it from weather, makes transport easier, and allows quicker, safer launch preparation) that can launch from a rail platform means solving difficult engineering problems — such as keeping the launcher stable, ensuring secure communication systems, and fitting the missile into the railway network. The success of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and the Strategic Forces Command (SFC) in doing this shows India’s advancing defence manufacturing skills and its ability to develop critical technologies on its own, giving the country more strategic independence.

Looking at the bigger picture, the rail-based Agni-Prime adds to India’s missile strength in an important way. The road-mobile version gives flexibility for quick, tactical use, while the rail-based version provides strategic mobility across the whole country. Together, they create a layered deterrent, meaning India now has multiple types of missile systems working at different levels — road for short-term flexibility and rail for wide-area coverage. This makes it much harder for enemies to plan or target effectively. Because the missiles can be hidden in many places, move quickly, and launch with little warning, India’s overall nuclear deterrence becomes stronger and more reliable.

The success of the Agni-Prime rail launch also opens the door for future growth in India’s strategic forces. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said this puts India in a small group of nations that have canister-based, rail-launched missiles. This technology can later be used for other Indian missiles too, creating a full rail-based deterrent system that takes advantage of India’s large railway network as a powerful defence asset.

Agni V: Strategic Pinnacle

The culmination of India’s missile development programme can be seen in the Agni-5, which represents the apex of the country’s long-range deterrent capabilities. With its range exceeding 5,000 kilometres and proven MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle) capability, demonstrated in the 2024 Mission Divyastra test, the Agni-5 provides India with the ability to strike multiple targets simultaneously across vast distances.

The missile’s three-stage solid-fuel design and canister-based launch system ensure rapid deployment when needed, while its capacity to carry 3–4 nuclear warheads significantly multiplies India’s strategic striking power. This makes it extremely difficult for enemy missile defence systems to stop all incoming warheads, ensuring that India’s nuclear deterrent remains reliable and effective against any potential adversary.

This capability, combined with the rail-based mobility of the Agni-Prime, creates a comprehensive deterrent framework that addresses both regional and intercontinental threats. Together, the mobile Agni-Prime and the long-range Agni-5 represent a mature and sophisticated nuclear deterrent that reflects India’s emergence as a responsible nuclear power with credible second-strike capabilities across the entire spectrum of strategic threats.

Agni-Prime vs Agni-5: Key Differences

While both Agni-Prime and Agni-5 strengthen India’s deterrence, their roles are distinct. The Agni-Prime, with a range of up to 2,000 km, is designed mainly for regional deterrence and quick deployment against nearby threats. It carries a single warhead and can be launched from both road and rail-based mobile platforms, giving it high mobility across India’s vast railway network. In contrast, the Agni-5 is India’s true long-range strategic missile, with a reach of over 5,000 km. It is canister-based but limited to road mobility, and its real power lies in its MIRV capability, allowing it to carry three to four nuclear warheads, each aimed at different targets. In short, Agni-Prime is about regional flexibility and rapid movement, while Agni-5 represents intercontinental reach and multi-target strike power. Together, they give India a layered and credible deterrent suited for both immediate regional threats and far-reaching strategic challenges.


Girish Linganna

Girish Linganna is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com

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On 26 September 2025, 60 years on, “a bird for all seasons”, India’s first supersonic fighter jet – the MiG-21, the legendary Soviet-origin fighter aircraft that patrolled India’s skies and backbone of the Air Force’s combat fleet for six decades, finally bid adieu during the decommissioning ceremony in Chandigarh, the very place it had first touched down in 1963.


Six MiG-21s of the No.23 Panthers squadron flew in a formation before being given a water cannon salute. When the six Warbird flew into sunset, it marked a transformative chapter in India’s air power but also stood as a powerful symbol of the enduring and strategic partnership between India and Russia. This brought the IAF’s fighter jet squadron strength to a mere 29 for all practical purposes, the lowest since the 1960s. 

The aircraft took part in every major conflict from the 1965 war to the recent Operation Sindoor. It intercepted enemy bombers not only in 1965 war but also in 1971 Indo-Pak war as well as in flying strike missions in the 1999 Kargil conflict to its controversial engagement during the 2019 Balakot strikes. In all these missions, the MiG-21 left an indelible mark in India’s combat history, triumph and loss notwithstanding in the process.       

MiG-21 established India’s airpower on the global stage and excelled in multiple roles. The beauty of the MiG-21s is that as an interceptor, it stopped the enemy in ground attack roles and showed aggression. In air defence it protected India’s skies. As a trainer, it shaped generations of air warriors. It proved to be the most significant fighter aircraft in military history. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh reminded the countrymen during the decommissioning ceremony that no other aircraft was manufactured in such a large numbers. Total of 11,500 MiGs were built, of which 850 were inducted into the IAF. 

The aircraft was the country’s first supersonic jet and a backbone of its aerial might. Of a total of around 12,000 units, around half were built locally by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). The aircraft’s Indian fleet was the largest in the world, outside of the Soviet Bloc. The MiG-21 was initially acquired for one specific role, a high-altitude interceptor that could counter aircraft like the American U-2 spy plane.

India has finalised a deal after months of negotiations that will see Dassault Aviation’s Rafale-M jets replace the aging fleet of Russian-made MiG-29Ks, that were also deployed aboard its two aircraft carriers, INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya. 


The fighter jet was involved in frequent fatal accidents that put the aircraft’s safety records under scrutiny and led to an understandable chorus of concern and calls for its early replacement. With upgrades, the IAF managed to keep them flying for so long. More than 400 MiG-21s were involved in accidents that killed around 200 pilots, earning the fighter jets unfortunate epithets such as “Flying Coffin” and “Widow Maker”. The fact is that more MiG-21s crashed than any other fighter because they formed the bulk of the aircraft in the IAF for the longest time. In the 1980s and 1990s, these planes accounted for more than 60 per cent of the air force’s fighting strength. The stigma of “human error” often compounded the pain for families, who perceived it as blaming the pilot rather than acknowledging systemic issues. However, the epithet “Saviour of the Skies” is more appropriate than the negative ones as mentioned above. After all, no sacrifice is ever great when it comes to protecting nation’s security and the MiG-21s did a wonderful job. 

The aircraft’s safety record became a grave concern in the later years as the pilot fatalities and increased crashes were attributed to operational, technical, or age-related factors. The MiG-21U trainer variant was ill-suited for training. The IAF relied on subsonic trainers like the Kiran and Iskra, which were inadequate for preparing pilots for the MiG-21’s supersonic performance. The gap between basic trainers and the MiG-21 widened as the fleet expanded from eight squadrons in 1963 to nearly half the IAF’s strength by the 1980s.

For young pilots transitioning from subsonic trainers to the MiG-21, the lack of adequate preparation was a significant contributor. The stigma of “human error” often compounds the pain for families, who perceive it as blaming the pilot rather than acknowledging systemic issues.

The maiden batch of the six MiG-21s entered service in March-April 1963 and the IAF progressively inducted 874 MiG-21s (60 per cent of these were produced under licence in India by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited). 

What is the legacy that the MiG-21s and other variants leave India for its Atmanirbhara agenda? The phasing out of the MiGs would now propel India to be in the pursuit of developing indigenous platforms such as the light combat aircraft (LCA Mk-1A) and the advanced medium combat aircraft and thus moving toward futuristic technologies. It needs to be remembered however that though the MiG-21s were inducted into the IAF over six decades ago, the aircrafts of multiple variants in service were not more than 40 years old, a life span considered normal for fighter jets worldwide. 

Keeping this fact in view, India had initiated the process as early as in 1983 to build light combat aircraft that would eventually replace the MiG-21s. With now only 29 left with the IAF, it leaves the IAF in a very tight spot. Now the IAF is looking for the Tejas to replace the MiGs-21s. The IAF remains committed to the Tejas program and has placed orders for 180 Tejas Mk 1A. The IAF is also eagerly waiting for the Tejas Mk 2 version, including two squadrons of the Tejas in IOC and FOC versions. The IAF is looking at seeking government approval to go beyond the sanctioned fighter squadron strength of 42, based on generational capabilities.   

This includes upgraded Su 30 MKIs, Rafale manufactured in India, Tejas MK1As (180 of which have been ordered), Tejas Mk2s, Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) and possible procurement of other 5thgeneration type platforms, either as limited numbers in fly away condition or under the Make in India route. It is likely that by 2030, fighters like the MiG-29, Jaguar and Mirages will start getting phased out slowly. This would depend on the timely delivery of the Tejas Mk1A and Tejas Mk2 so that a repeat of the MiG-21 situation is avoided. 

Since the IAF is willing to accept only fully ready fighters, the delivery of the Tejas MK1A is likely to begin only in the first quarter of 2026. The actual deliveries were contracted to start from February 2024 but engine delivery delays by American firm GE along with other issues delayed the program. 

Though the IAF has placed orders for 180 Tejas Mk1A, it wants Tejas Mk 2 version, which is designed to have the capabilities of the Mirage 2000 aircraft and comes with longer endurance and firepower than previous versions. The airframe will be bigger than the Tejas MK1 and Mk1A versions. Unfortunately, the indigenous Tejas Mk 1A program encountered repeated setbacks initially due to critical GE F404 engine supply issues. As a result, the MiG-21s were forced to serve beyond their intended lifespan due to strategic necessity and procurement delays of the indigenous Tejas Mk 1A.

Now that the “Saviours of the Skies” entered the sunset, India’s defence planners have focused on advancing towards an indigenous future by alternatives. As the Air Chief Marshal R.K.S. Bhadauria recently reflected “the MiG-21 will always be remembered for its unmatched agility and the dedication of those who flew it. It served the nation well, but the times demand modern, safer platforms.” This being said, phasing out legacy aircraft such as the MiG-21 may be essential to improve safety and operational effectiveness, but the gap between decommissioned squadrons and incoming Tejas jets must be carefully managed to maintain air defence readiness.

It transpires therefore that the country’s ability to address the capability vacuum is heavily dependent on indigenous program. While the Tejas Mark 1A now entering full-scale induction, will assume the point-defence and light combat roles, high-end air dominance shall be increasingly handled by Rafale jets. The Su 30MK1 will continue to fulfil multi-role missions. As the ambitious Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) project promises a prototype by 2028-29 and potential induction by 2034-35, the Tejas Mk 2 and AMCA are positioned to support India’s long-term transition to a self-reliant networked air force.

The partnership with the private industry like L & T’s airframe components and expanded engine testing that reflect a crucial shift shall be a game changer in India’s air defence capability. The participation of the private players in the PPP model in defence manufacturing shall be the end game in India’s path of achieving Atmanirbhar goal. Thus with the retirement of the MiG-21 aircrafts, a new technological transition has been made. This also reflects India’s evolution from a platform dependent force to a self-reliant nation, multi-role doctrine and strategic autonomy. The new projects are expected to build an Air Force that has the required capability, and vision worthy of the country’s ambitions, thereby protect the country’s skies as the MiG-21s did for the past six decades. 

Dr. Rajaram Panda

Dr. Rajaram Panda is former Senior Fellow at Pradhanmantri Memorial Museum and Library (PMML). Earlier Dr Panda was Senior Fellow at MP-IDSA and ICCR Chair Professor at Reitaku University, JAPAN. His latest book "India and Japan: Past, Present and Future" was published in 2024 by Knowledge World. E-mail: rajaram.panda@gmail.com



Military Engineering: India’s Imperative, China’s Edge – Analysis


An Indian Army 15 Metre Sarvatra Bridging System. Photo Credit: Ministry of Defence, Wikipedia Commons


September 29, 2025
By Lt Gen Gautam Banerjee (Retd)


Bridges, roads and resilience: how Infrastructure shapes deterrence on India’s borders

In an age defined by unpredictable threats and shifting battlefields, the quiet craft of military engineering often serves as both lifeline and force multiplier. While India’s Corps of Engineers and organisations like the Border Roads Organisation (BRO) have demonstrated resilience; systemic underinvestment and weak civil–military synergy leave worrisome gaps in the nation’s military preparedness.

By contrast, China’s integrated, technology-driven, and civil–military fused model makes military engineering a spearhead of military modernisation. Given the rising militarisation along India’s borders, shifting security dynamics of the Indo-Pacific, and India’s broader developmental ambitions, amplification of such insights is timely and imperative.



Military Engineering as a Bedrock of Strategy:

The Corps of Engineers has historically been tasked with bridging rivers, building roads, and ensuring mobility across some of the harshest terrains on the Earth. In independent India, so has been the case from the glacial heights of Siachen to the dense forests of the Northeast. However, a somewhat limited utilitarian description of military engineering among the nation’s top defence planners, under pressure of inadequate fiscal allocations, has underplayed its wider roles across peace, limited hostilities and full-scale war, thereby diminishing its strategic significance. This over-sight had been shaped by economic, technological, and industrial constraints, compounded by the top defence hierarchy’s debilitating unfamiliarity with strategic military thought.

Conversely, in a world of contestation, military empowerment, anchored by military engineering amongst other support systems, remains a silent foundation for India’s ability to fight, deter, and survive. Wars have always been prosecuted through fortifications, firepower, mobility, manoeuvre, logistics, and other attributes of combat, each are equally significant. Alongside that attribute, the ability to construct and sustain myriad ranges of military infrastructure along the frontlines, flanks and depth areas is intrinsic to balanced force structuring, tactical employment of weaponry, and maintenance of training standards, morale, and leadership effectiveness. In doctrinal terms, engineering ensures the continuum between strategic intent and tactical execution.

India’s Wars: This above-stated concept has been validated across India’s post-independence wars, barring the debacle of 1962. In 1947-48, the Engineers cleared and opened up the axes of advance for the Indian forces to evict the Pakistani marauders; in 1965, they played pivotal roles in blocking the enemy’s offensives while facilitating own armoured thrusts across the Punjab’s canal network by laying assault bridges and clearing minefields under fire and so sustain India’s offensive momentum.

In 1971, Indian forces’ rapid advance into East Pakistan owed much to the Engineers who paved the obstacle ridden riverine and boggy terrain into operational axes for prosecution of a lightning campaign of advance, invest and attack, thereby avoiding what could have been weeks of grim, bloody struggle. In Kargil, the Sappers carved tracks into forbidding high-altitude terrain, constructed helipads and gun positions under extreme conditions- every movement with engineering stores was itself a struggle. Each of these wars underscored a fundamental truth: engineering feats have often marked the difference between stalemate and breakthrough.

Recent experiences, particularly along the LAC, reaffirm how military engineering remains decisive in operational readiness before, during, and after confrontation. Both in the cases of Doklam and Galwan confrontations, engineer task forces were successfully deployed to open axes for rapid troop deployment and sustain logistic support; before, during and after the cessation of hostile actions.

Post-2020, accelerated road and bridge construction in Ladakh and the North-East theatres have signalled not just the infrastructural upgrade but India’s resolve to match China’s border build-up. Herein, the Border Roads Organisation (BRO) was deployed to reinstate its frontline strategic role, Its construction projects in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh (the whole of the North-East) not only facilitate mobility and logistic survivability of own forces but also serve as signals of the Indian State’s resolve in the face of inimical powers. In this sense, infrastructure is now both an operational enabler and a political signal. These concepts are neither new nor unique; powerful global militaries embrace them. In India’s case, however, the post-independence ethos of ‘peaceful existence’ led to disregard of the military’s role, and among others, the traditional four echelons of engineering support were neglected.

Here, the People’s Republic of China offers a stark example. Both the nations began in early 1950s from similar motivations of developmental aspirations and similar starting points and. But China, aided by focused approaches and sustained fiscal-technological support, has enabled its PLA to progress in leaps through its ambitious modernisation schemes.

China’s Model of Modernisation:

China’s approach to military engineering has been integrated, centralised, and comprehensively resourced across all the four echelons of engineering support to the PLA. Beyond combat, frontline, depth, and rear tasks, PLA engineering is embedded within quasi-military organisations and civil–military synergies, where universities, state-owned enterprises, and the armed forces operate in concert. The PLA’s modernised structure – operational as well as logistic – embodies this coherence. It treats operational capacities and logistic infrastructure not as auxiliaries, but as integral to combat readiness.

That has facilitated the PLA in developing terrain-shaping, battle-support, and logistic technologies. Its bridging systems, high-altitude logistics, underground shelters, and protective habitats far outstrip India’s capabilities. Civil–military fusion allows PLA engineers to leverage commercial advances in AI surveying, prefabrication, and drone-assisted construction.

PLA’s Civil-Military Synergy: By working together with state-owned enterprises and quasi-military entities, the PLA fuses military engineering with national development schemes. Roads, tunnels, and dual-use airfields in Tibet and Xinjiang serve not just the economic purposes but serve as deliberate instruments of coercion. In a wider context of fundamental aspects of military engineering, Chinese universities such as the Rocket Force University of Engineering and the Information Engineering University provide pipelines of talent in AI surveillance, battlefield survey, cyberwarfare, and propulsion systems. PLA officers driving the development of electromagnetic catapults and railguns symbolise how China integrates cutting-edge engineering into its military doctrine – while its engineer militias remain prepared for rear area support, civic actions and disaster relief.

Having institutionalised its four tiers of military engineering, China is already moving decisively towards that direction, with visible results. PLA’s operational exercises in Tibet and across the Taiwan Strait simulate close combat engineering support across the entire frontlines, alongside the regular roles of rapid construction of fortifications, tracks, bridges, jetties, runways, billets, and bases. Under high-altitude and marine battle conditions, such capabilities can tilt strategic balances. Recent satellite imagery shows modular landing barges for Taiwan scenarios, while researchers test drones that split midair to evade defences. Hypersonic propulsion, AI-enabled logistics, and modular battlefield platforms underline how China treats engineering innovation as one of the spearheads of military modernisation.


Towards India’s Future-Ready Military Force:


Any comparison between the Indian and the Chinese military engineering capability is sobering and revealing. The BRO and MES have improved, but delays and bottlenecks persist, driven by institutional preconceptions, procedural bottlenecks, and fiscal hurdles. Unlike China’s centralised model, India’s federal structure produces friction among the ministries, states and even within the services. And so the political impetus remains insufficient.

Weighing its severely adverse security situation, the Indian defence structure is yet to effectively synergise its fiscal, industrial, and infrastructural growth with its military, including military engineering, needs. As a sub-set of its military empowerment, India needs to reframe its military engineering capability as a part of a live, active, and retaliatory strategy. Its strategic resolve demands revival of its overall military modernisation to include the upgraded equipment holdings, improved force mobility, quickly constructable tracks, modern battlefield fortifications and survivability capabilities, high-technology battle communications and surveillance networks, and upgraded survey and mapping systems.

All this requires not only a requisite resource planning, but also a cognitive reorientation of the strategic culture. Technological adaptions are mandatory in modern warfare. For engineering, this means adopting AI-based logistics mapping, modern construction systems, and energy-resilient habitats, among other innovations. Such aspects need to be prioritised for indigenous research and development.

Besides, the tradition of military engineers’ umbilical connections with the civilian engineering organisations, private sector engineering industries and engineering academia needs to be resuscitated. Today, that relationship has withered due to decades of defensive introversion among India’s leadership.

Military Survey, a core military engineering expertise, has increasingly shifted toward reliance on satellite data. But its present status is inadequate for tactical decision-making; dependence on private agencies and their poorly interpreted data remains fraught with massive uncertainties. On the other hand, operationally relevant, accurate and focused military survey inputs are gaining salience in today’s remote, precision warfare. While outsourcing has advantages, it dilutes the military’s control over critical frontier-specific knowledge without meeting the grim exclusivities of military-specific requirements. In a contested geography like the Himalayas, reliance on civilian inputs risks leaving the armed forces under hazy conditionalities of operational planning and execution. For military modernisation to be effective and efficient, this aspect needs serious consideration.

Any military engineering transformation of this magnitude requires revival of embedded institutional knowledge, backed by fiscal priority, industrial support, upgraded training, and modernised engineer stores. The military’s organisational structures must also evolve to articulate these capabilities. Traditional echelons of military engineering (viz. field engineering, line of communication engineering MES, BRO, Military Survey, civil works departments, and private industry) must be customised to achieve balance between defensive and offensive strategies.

Conclusion:

For India, ensuring that the Corps of Engineers evolves into a 21st century force multiplier, within a balanced all arms, joint service force-structure, is no longer optional, it is an existential call. The challenge is to fuse economic growth, technological innovation, industrial modernisation and development of native military doctrine. India has to catch up not just to mirror China, but to assert its own doctrine of all spectrum deterrence and stoic resilience. As China fuses engineering with the PLA’s force projection, India too must reimagine its Corps of Engineers as a strategic instrument to underwrite its military deterrence, resilience, and great-power credibility.


Lt Gen Gautam Banerjee (Retd)


Lt Gen Gautam Banerjee (Retd), PVSM, AVSM, YSM is a Senior Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), India. He has served as the Chief of Staff, Central Command, and former Commandant of the Officers' Training Academy, Chennai (India).



Russia's military production goes into surplus

PRIMITIVE ACCUMULATION OF CAPITAL

Russia's military production goes into surplus
After three years of heavy investment, Russia's military-industrial sector is producing all the arms it needs and has begun to restock its arsenal. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin September 29, 2025

After more than three years of heavy investment, Russia’s military production has gone into surplus, producing more arms and ammo than it needs to perpetrate the war in Ukraine, the Kiel Institute reported.

All the main arms categories – tanks, military vehicles, artillery, and drones – have seen production increase by almost 200% or more since the war began in 2022. Before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it had planned to deliver about 400 armoured vehicles the following year. It’s now shipping ten-times that.

Sanctions were designed to starve the Russian budget of the means to fund its war against Ukraine, but the latest production numbers show that effort has decisively failed.  

“Russia has dramatically scaled military output since late 2022, doubling or tripling production in most categories despite sanctions. Annual figures include 1,776 main battle tanks, 6,564 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and 672 self-propelled howitzers, with monthly peaks of 150 tanks and 550 armoured vehicles. Artillery shell production reaches 10,000 daily, supported by 7% GDP defence spending (comparable to EU+UK combined in PPP terms),” the report found. “However, output has plateaued since the first quarter 2024, relying on Soviet stockpiles and allies like North Korea. By 2030, Russia could add 12-16 brigades, totalling 1.5mn active troops. Production has doubled across the board or increased even further, as in the case of tanks.”

Arms race

Russia has just released its latest 2026-2028 budget that keeps military spending at around 8% of GDP after Russian President Vladimir Putin put the entire economy on a war footing as soon as invasion happened over three years ago.

Ukraine is, however, entirely dependent on external funding from its allies: it is short some $8bn-$19bn (depending on if there is a ceasefire) for 2025 and the unfunded gap in next year’s budget was just increased to $65bn by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), all of which will have to come from European partners this year, after the US sent no money to Ukraine since US President Donald Trump took office. Ukraine is standing on a financial cliff the IMF reported on September 12 and faces a possible macroeconomic collapse if its allies cannot find more money to fund its war effort.

While Russia suffered from shortages and the lack of access to technology in the first years of the war, those problems have been solved in the meantime. Factories in Russia’s hinterland are working three shifts 24/7 to churn out the materiel that the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) needs.

Ukraine has also been investing heavily into its domestic defence sector with the help of Western allies under the so-called Danish model. Earlier this month Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) now sources some 60% of all it needs from its own factories, up from 40% at the start of this year. Ukraine has also become entirely self-sufficient in the production of drones, the determining factor in the war, and more recently has started making its own Flamingo cruise missiles, which could prove to be a game changer.

However, the AFU remains under pressure as Russia is outproducing it in terms of arms and ammo to the point where it has started to restock Soviet-era stockpiles depleted by years of war. The Kremlin has a long-term plan to rebuild its military over the next decade and even if a ceasefire were called tomorrow, analysts say the Kremlin will continue its heavy spending on its military-industrial complex, in a throwback to the Cold War-era.

And it's not just the volume of production that has improved: Russian engineers have innovated and the Kremlin’s partners have supplied it with new technology.

At the start of the war, Russia imported thousands of Iranian-made Shahed drones, but in the meantime it has built factories to manufacture the Gerad-2 attack drones, based on Iran’s Shahed 136 design, most recently adding a jet engine to the drone to improve its speed and range. Having initially imported 140,000 drones in 2023, it made 1.5mn last year and is on course to double that number this year.

Ukraine made an estimated 2mn drones in 2024 and plans to raise that number to 4mn this year, if it can find the funding to expand. Zelenskiy said last week that up to 60% of Ukraine’s drone production capacity is currently idle for lack of investment. There is talk of easing export controls on arms to attract investment and Kyiv is in talks with Warsaw about supplying it to create a drone wall to improve Europe’s eastern flank defences.

At the same time a decoy drone was found on the battlefield in Ukraine that was filled with Chinese technology; previously Russian drones and missiles were entirely dependent on imported or smuggled Western chips and tech.

In other areas like electronic warfare (EW), the advantage has swing back and forth in the drone war between Kyiv and Moscow, but Russia is believed to have the upper-hand at the moment and was also the one that introduced the idea of fibre optic-controlled drones that are impervious to EW counter measures; Ukraine initially belittled the innovation, but before widely adopting it for its own drones.

Guns and butter

Russia continues to spend heavily on defence, but the latest budget cuts military spending for the first time since the war began as Russia pulls ahead of Ukraine in the arms race and is devoting more money to the social sector and reconstruction of the Ukrainian regions it controls. Defence outlays between 2022 and 2024 were at least RUB22 trillion ($263bn), according to the Ministry of Finance (MinFin).

For the first time since the war started in 2022, Russia's defence spending in 2026 will be modestly reduced, according to data cited by Reuters, from RUB13.5 trillion to RUB12.6 trillion ($153.7bn, 5.8% of GDP) from a total spend of around RUB48 trillion. Moreover, it will be slightly lower than the 2026 plans set when the previous budget was approved a year ago (RUB12.8 trillion).

The Russian surplus means that it is also returning to the international arms market and intends to restart arms exports, previously a major earner for the Russian economy. Russian President Vladimir Putin is in active talks for sales of things like the SS-400 surface-to-air defence system with India and Russian companies are reappearing at major international arms fairs in India, China, the Middle East and Africa, reports Bloomberg. State arms exporter Rosoboronexport, which handles about 85% of foreign sales, says pent-up demand has sent its pipeline of orders to a record $60bn. Russia could export $17bn to $19bn of military kit annually in the first four years after the war in Ukraine, the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade estimates. Nevertheless, Rosoboronexport’s order book is still only half of what the Kremlin is spending on defence.

Putin is well aware of the dangers of overspending on the military-industrial sector and ignoring the civilian sector. In his “guns and butter” speech to the assembled heads of Russia’s six military districts he said that military investment should be directed to both parts of the economy. In a related move he appointed his top economic advisor Andrei Belousov as Defence Minister, who has no military experience whatsoever, but is a leading advisor to Putin on the management of the Russian economy. The focus is on dual-use production, which should already be possible for components in sectors such as shipbuilding, aviation, electronics, medical equipment and agriculture, according to Putin.

Europe lagging behind

The Kiel report compared Russia’s production to Europe’s and found it wanting. Europe's rearmament progress, while accelerated since 2022 (defence spending up to over 2% of GDP), remains inadequate for 2030 readiness. Russia's production surge outpaces Europe's in key areas, and procurement delays (averaging 3-4 years) exacerbate Europe’s vulnerabilities. Europe must procure equipment for 25-50 brigade-equivalent units to counter Russia, but reliance on US systems and bureaucratic hurdles are going to make this very difficult, the authors conclude. The €800bn EU ReArm programme may suffice in nominal terms but not at inflated wartime prices, requiring a focus on cost-effectiveness and R&D, the authors conclude.

"We show that the situation today is even more concerning if Europe aims to be fit for war by 2030," the authors said. "Production must increase by a factor of around five to tilt the balance decisively in Europe’s favour."

European stockpiles have declined since the Cold War, with no significant replenishment despite procurement rises, the report found.

The current annual production lags Russia’s by a large margin: 50 tanks, 214 IFVs, and 202 howitzers, while artillery shell production will hit 1.95mn by 2027, surpassing US but still trailing Russia and its allies’ output.

European procurement is still tied up in red tape and lack of funds. Delivery delays average 3 years, with over half of the existing orders still undated. Technological shortfalls also abound, including a lack of next-generation tanks plans or sixth-generation jets by 2045 that China, a close Russian ally, is already producing. Currently Europe is entirely dependent on imports of advanced air defence from the US.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY

 

"Managed democracy" wins the Moldovan elections

The ruling pro-EU PAS has won the elections in Moldova, but using questionable methods that are similar to teh Kremlin's "managed democracy" manipulations to make sure the "right" party wins. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin September 29, 2025

With the final results still coming in, it appears that the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has won the general election in Moldova on September 28, but to secure victory, President Maia Sandu seems to have taken a page out of the “managed democracy” Kremlin’s playbook.

Moldova’s elections turned into a geopolitical battlefield as the incumbent pro-Europe Sandu wrestled with massive Kremlin interference that was playing on dissatisfaction with her rule and pro-Russian sentiment amongst many of her people. And she was playing rough.

Only 48 hours before the vote, two of the leading pro-Russian parties were excluded from the race on campaign funding irregularities.

In her televised address before the vote, Sandu drew a stark parallel with Georgia which she claimed had been “crushed by Russia” and the European path for Moldova that would lead to prosperity.

But this emotional appeal came with some blatant gerrymandering, as only two polling stations were opened inside Russia for expatriates, but embassies across the EU opened their doors to would-be voters.

The effort to ensure the pro-EU forces had the upper hand were underway well in advance. Tech guru and Telegram founder Pavel Durov admitted in a post that he was approached by French intelligence services and Moldovan officials earlier this year while in Paris and asked to shut down opposition channels.

At the same time EU foreign policy chief and former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas openly announced that the EU was sending a “rapid reaction” force to ChiÈ™inău to “assist” in the elections and “counter” Russian meddling.

Managed democracy

Observers have criticized Sandu and the EU of adopting the Kremlin’s tactics of “managed democracy”: playing lip service to the norms of democratic voting, but making extensive use of the so-called “administrative resources” to manipulate voter sentiment: both through hard means, like gerrymandering and the use of courts to ban opposition candidates, and soft means, like flooding the information space and social media with pro-regime propaganda.

“There was the term “managed democracy” in Russia - a regime of hybrid and increasingly imitational democracy that existed between either 1993 or 1996 and 2012 when Putin undid democracy altogether.” journalist and bne IntelliNews columnist Leonid Ragozin. “This is what is happening in Moldova.”

The opposition Moldova Mare party was barred from elections just two days before the polls opened, but remained in the ballots, so people voted for it, unwittingly stealing votes from other opposition parties in favour of the ruling PAS.

Foreign Minister Mihai Popșoi said diaspora voting could be prolonged as Sandu called on diaspora to take active part, but not the diaspora in Russia though whose votes have been suppressed by limiting the number of polling stations to just two, reports Ragozin.

There were unconfirmed reports that the bridges to the breakaway regions of Transnistria were blocked on the day of elections to suppress anti-Sandu votes. Transnistria remains under partial Russian occupation.

The widely spread Moldovan one million-strong diaspora, 15% of the total population that already enjoys EU visa-free travel, plays a vital role in elections, but more than a third of those live in Russia. The pro-Russian candidates, like former president Igor Dodon and oligarch businessman Ilan Shor, allegedly used cash incentives, disinformation, and vote-buying to sway support. PAS struggled in June 2024 local elections, winning with a razor thin margin, where pro-Russian parties gained ground in rural areas and among Russian-speaking voters.

Georgia on my mind

Critics say Sandu was using the example of Georgia to fan flames of Russia’s intentions for the country. "Georgia has once again become a Russian colony. Moldova will not repeat these mistakes," Sandu said.

Georgia is also an EU candidate country, but the ruling regime, led by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili has broken with Brussels and maintains tight relations with Russia that has seen trade and investment flourish. That has led to almost a year of street protests as the majority of ordinary Georgian want to see their country accede to the EU.

“Georgia isn't, as she claims, a "colony of Russia", from what I could see they merely refused to be a colony of the EU, which is a pretty big difference,” political commentator Arnaud Bertrand said in a commentary.

As reported by bne IntelliNewsGeorgia suffers from a similar voting breakdown as Moldova: the urban population in the capital strongly support the EU-direction, but the poorer rural population favoured Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream ruling party with its pro-Russia leaning.

Moreover, a side-by-side comparison of Georgia and Moldova reveals that George has easily outperformed Moldova in recent years, which remains one of two poorest countries in Europe. Last year Georgia's economy grew at 9.4% vs 0.1% for Moldova, according to the World Bank. “In fact since she became president in 2020, her country's GDP grew from $8.4bn to $9.25bn (so 10% growth in total in four years) when Georgia's grew by 45% (from $17.35bn to $25.13bn), Bertrand reports.

Romania

Critics say that this Moldovan election is similar to the last 2024 presidential election in Romania where far-right independent candidate Călin Georgescu came out of nowhere with a surprise first round win with approximately 22% of the vote.

However, seen as a pro-Russian spoiler, in December the Constitutional Court annulled the entire first round and Georgescu was barred from politics. The authorities claimed that Georgescu had received illicit funding from the Kremlin to run a highly effective social media campaign on TikTok and Telegram. A few months later, the authorities admitted they had no concrete evidence to substantiate that claim. A rerun returned pro-EU Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan, who secured 53.6% of the vote in the second round on May 18.

He defeated hard-right nationalist George Simion in a dramatic upset as Simion was leading the first round but garnered 46.4% in the second round.

Dan’s victory ensured that EU-member Romania stays in the anti-Russian camp, championed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Kallsa, and out of the growing Patriots for Europe championed by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who have become a major thorn in the side of the European Commission (EC) executive.

Managed democracy

Russia's "managed democracy" is a political system that emerged following President Vladimir Putin's rise to power in 1999-2000. It blends democratic structures with centralized authoritarian control.

The term, coined by Kremlin insiders like Vladislav Surkov, is a hybrid regime where elections, media, and political opposition exist and prima facie appears to be a true democracy, but in reality elections are carefully managed to achieve certain results.

Unlike the presidents in Central Asia that largely score well over 90%
“victories” in elections, over time the Kremlin has become more subtle as it refines the system. Putin won a mere 52.9% in this first election in 2000, but was swept into office on the back of the start of the second Chechen war after a series of apartment bombs – widely seen as being orchestrated by the Federal Security Service (FSB) – killed hundreds of Muscovites in their beds in the middle of the night.

Since then, Putin’s share of the vote has risen steadily, both thanks to genuine economic prosperity he brought the country by ending Yeltsin’s chaos, but also as control over voting improves, driven by the introduction of an electronic ballot system.

Putin presidential electoral victories:

2000 (March 26): 52.94% (first round; against Gennady

Zyuganov at 29.21%).

2004 (March 14): 71.31% (first round; against Nikolai Kharitonov at 13.69%).

2012 (March 4): 63.60% (first round; against Gennady Zyuganov at 17.18%).

2018 (March 18): 76.69% (first round; against Pavel Grudinin at 11.77%).

2024 (March 15-17): 87.28% (first round; against Nikolai Kharitonov at 4.31%).Interestingly, in each of these elections, Putin has been moving towards making sure that he wins enough theoretical numerical votes that is more than 50% of the entire population, not just a whopping majority of the smaller group of just registered voters. This share is rising from 25% in the first 2000 election but was 52.7% in the last election in 2024.

However, the parliamentary elections are more important. Russia is such a vast country, the Kremlin has to rely on the regional deputies and governors for actual day to day operations and as some of the regions are so far and there are so many of them they enjoy a fair amount of autonomy.

At the same time, the election results need to cross various constitutional thresholds to protect Putin’s position: in theory the Duma can veto presidential orders and change the constitution if it can raise more than 66% of the vote, so the Kremlin ensures that the ruling United Russia controls that many votes. The Kremlin also needs to ensure that it has enough deputies to control the Duma’s key committees where laws are actually drafted.

In more recent years, the Kremlin has promoted other parties to add a veneer of improved plurality, however, these parties belong to the so-called “systemic opposition”, such as the late Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), that always vote the Kremlin-line on big issues. The “non-systemic opposition” like late opposition figure and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny, who died in a Russian prison under questionable circumstances in February 2024, are excluded from the Duma.

The most recent example was 2021 Duma elections where, as reported by bne IntelliNews, the Communist Party (KPRF) are believed to have won the majority, defeating United Russia. However, when the electronic voting came in, those wins were overturned and United Russia took control. However, a statistical study showed clearly the result was systemically fixed in the Kremlin’s favour.

The system occasionally goes wrong: the fix in the 2011 Duma elections was so blatant that it sparked the largest mass demonstrations of Putin’s regime with more than 100,00 demonstrators on Bolotnaya Square in a park facing the Kremlin across the Moskva river.

Moldova and Romania are still a long way from a full managed democracy and have limited themselves to crude early-stage tactics of banning opposition leaders and parties in the run up the vote, a technique also favoured by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko in the massively falsified president elections of 2000 that sparked mass demonstrations.

However, Georgia has gone much further down the managed democracy path. Putin abandoned his “repression-lite” model of managed democracy following the return to Russia and arrest of Navalny in 2021. He ramped up the powers of his so-called foreign agents law to close down the opposition press and jail journalists. He also made using the word “war” in the press illegal after the start of the ”special military operations” in Ukraine in 2022.

Georgian Dream is adopting a growing number of these tactics, shuttering foreign-backed NGOs, arresting journalists, and it also introduced its own foreign agents law last year that kicked off the on-going mass protests that are still running nearly a year later.

 

AFRIKA

China signs $1.4bn Tazara railway deal, reviving copperbelt link amid Lobito Corridor rivalry

China signs $1.4bn Tazara railway deal, reviving copperbelt link amid Lobito Corridor rivalry
/ bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews September 29, 2025

Zambia and Tanzania have signed a $1.4bn agreement with China to modernise the Tanzania–Zambia Railway (Tazara), a strategic line linking the central African copperbelt to the Indian Ocean port of Dar es Salaam, Bloomberg reported on Monday (September 29). 

Tazara, stretching 1,860 km, has suffered decades of underinvestment and is operating far below capacity. The project revives infrastructure built with Chinese financing and expertise in the 1970s.

The rehabilitation aims to restore the efficiency of the railway line at a time when copper shipments from Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are placing unprecedented pressure on regional transport corridors.

With most ore currently moved by truck, congestion at border posts has become a persistent bottleneck. The upgraded railway is expected to cut transport times and provide a more reliable alternative for exporters moving bulk minerals to port.

The railway project also carries geopolitical weight among a scramble to secure supply chains for critical minerals.

Tazara’s development emerged during a period of resistance to Western influence in Southern Africa, after the US and Russia declined to finance the project, citing economic concerns.

Tazara (Tanzania–Zambia Railway)

  • Route: Dar es Salaam (Tanzania, Indian Ocean) ↔ Kapiri Mposhi (Zambia, copperbelt)
  • Length: 1,860 km
  • Origins: Built 1970–75 with Chinese financing/engineering, $500mn at the time (then China’s largest overseas project).
  • Current state: Operating far below capacity after decades of underfunding.
  • Revamp: $1.4bn China–Zambia–Tanzania deal signed September 2025.
  • Strategic role: Reduces dependence on trucking routes; relieves border congestion; symbol of Sino–African ties.

Tazara is in competition with the US- and EU-backed Lobito Corridor, a $3bn to $4bn rail and port project aimed at channelling copper and cobalt from the same mineral-rich central Africa belt to the Atlantic coast of Angola. For African governments, the rivalry offers potential leverage in negotiating financing, tariffs and service standards.

The Lobito Corridor has gained momentum as Washington and Brussels promote it as a “transparent alternative” to Chinese-backed infrastructure. Centred on Angola’s Lobito Port and the rehabilitated Benguela Railway, the 1,300 km corridor is already operational to the DRC border, with plans to extend links deeper into the copperbelt. The project is supported by the US, EU, African Development Bank (AfDB) and private operators.

Lobito Corridor

  • Route: Lobito Port (Angola, Atlantic Ocean) ↔ DRC copperbelt ↔ Zambia (planned extensions).
  • Length: 1,300+ km (rehabilitated Benguela Railway + new connectors).
  • Origins: Colonial-era line modernised in 2010s; now centerpiece of US–EU–Angola partnership.
  • Current state: Operational to Lobito; expansion ongoing to connect Zambia and DRC seamlessly.
  • Funding: US and EU backing, with World Bank and African Development Bank support.
  • Strategic role: Diversifies export routes; reduces reliance on east-coast ports; framed as “transparent alternative” to Chinese projects.