President Donald Trump with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on February 21, 2025 (Wikimedia Commons)
March 20, 2025
ALTERNET
Liberal economists Paul Krugman and Robert Reich and other critics of President Donald Trump are warning that a variety of his policies — including steep new tariffs, mass deportations and deep cuts to the federal workforce — could push the United States into a full-fledged recession.
One MAGA proposal that isn't being talked about as much is repealing or gutting the Inflation Reduction Act. But according to The New Republic's Malcolm Ferguson, that is yet another thing that could help tank the economy.
"Repealing the Inflation Reduction Act — something President Trump is currently trying very hard to do — could result in a $160 billion hit to the gross domestic product, according to Semafor," Ferguson explains. "A complete IRA repeal would devastate the country's economy. It could lead to 790,000 lost job losses by 2030, while household energy bills would reach $370 per year, on average, by 2035."
Ferguson adds, "This is ominous news for an economy already on the brink of recession."
Ferguson warns that economic damage from tariffs and economic damage from a repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act could be a painful combination.
"That recession is being driven by Trump's ongoing trade war with America's closest allies — 25 percent levies are currently being placed on many imports from Mexico and Canada — which Fed Chair Jerome Powell just admitted was making inflation worse," Ferguson notes. "Cuts to the IRA would have a massive negative impact on American manufacturing, delivering a devastating blow to a sector that those tariffs are theoretically intended to boost. Slashing the IRA would also particularly harm red states, which have received a whopping 77 percent of clean energy manufacturing and deployment investment since the third quarter of 2022."
ALTERNET
Liberal economists Paul Krugman and Robert Reich and other critics of President Donald Trump are warning that a variety of his policies — including steep new tariffs, mass deportations and deep cuts to the federal workforce — could push the United States into a full-fledged recession.
One MAGA proposal that isn't being talked about as much is repealing or gutting the Inflation Reduction Act. But according to The New Republic's Malcolm Ferguson, that is yet another thing that could help tank the economy.
"Repealing the Inflation Reduction Act — something President Trump is currently trying very hard to do — could result in a $160 billion hit to the gross domestic product, according to Semafor," Ferguson explains. "A complete IRA repeal would devastate the country's economy. It could lead to 790,000 lost job losses by 2030, while household energy bills would reach $370 per year, on average, by 2035."
Ferguson adds, "This is ominous news for an economy already on the brink of recession."
Ferguson warns that economic damage from tariffs and economic damage from a repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act could be a painful combination.
"That recession is being driven by Trump's ongoing trade war with America's closest allies — 25 percent levies are currently being placed on many imports from Mexico and Canada — which Fed Chair Jerome Powell just admitted was making inflation worse," Ferguson notes. "Cuts to the IRA would have a massive negative impact on American manufacturing, delivering a devastating blow to a sector that those tariffs are theoretically intended to boost. Slashing the IRA would also particularly harm red states, which have received a whopping 77 percent of clean energy manufacturing and deployment investment since the third quarter of 2022."
Ferguson continues, "A full repeal of the IRA is not expected, of course, but Speaker Mike Johnson did describe his vision for the cuts as 'somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer.' Even if the bill is not repealed — or curtailed — by Congress, agency cuts made by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency have likely already affected its implementation."
READ MORE: Busted: Report exposes Musk operatives who infiltrated Social Security Agency
According to Semafor's Mizy Clifton, red states and swing states could suffer the most damage from a repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act.
Clifton, in an article also published on March 20, reports, "With the exception of California, Republican-controlled states — Texas, Georgia, Florida, and Pennsylvania — stand out as the biggest losers, according to projections by think tank Energy Innovation: Annual household energy bills in Texas, for example, could increase $370 per year on average in 2035 as reduced investment in renewables drives up the share of electricity coming from fossil fuels and utilities pass on their higher costs to consumers, according to Energy Innovation projections."
Read The New Republic's full article at this link and Semafor's reporting here.
Inside Trump's economic plan: A massive transfer of wealth
Robert Reich
Robert Reich
March 20, 2025
ALTERNET
Donald Trump believes his tariffs will bring so much money to the U.S. treasury that the U.S. will be able to afford another giant Trump tax cut.
But Trump’s tariffs — and the retaliatory tariffs already being imposed on American exports by the nation’s trading partners — will be paid largely by the American working class and poor.
And the people who will benefit most from another giant Trump tax cut are America’s wealthy.
It will be a giant upward transfer of wealth.
Trump has made astronomical estimates about how much money tariffs can raise.
“We will take in trillions and trillions of dollars and create jobs like we have never seen before,” he said during his recent joint address to Congress. “Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again.”
Last Sunday on Air Force One, Trump was even more ebullient. “We’re going to become so rich, you’re not going to know where to spend all that money,” he said.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that if Trump’s already-announced tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada went into effect, they’d bring about $120 billion a year into the U.S. treasury, and $1.3 trillion over the course of 10 years.
by Taboola
Among Trump’s first actions at the outset of his second term was to order the treasury to establish an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariff revenue that would enable the U.S. to pay down its debt and reduce taxes.
Howard Lutnick, Trump’s secretary of commerce, said on Fox News in late February that the goal of the External Revenue Service “is very simple: to abolish the Internal Revenue Service and let all the outsiders pay.”
In other words: The U.S. will raise so much money from Trump’s tariffs that Americans will no longer need to pay income taxes.
The first problem with this is mathematical. America raises about $3 trillion each year from income taxes. The nation also imports about $3 trillion worth of goods each year.
So to replace income taxes, tariffs would have to be at least 100 percent on all imported goods. Also, Americans would have to continue to import $3 trillion worth of goods every year. Neither of these is remotely plausible.
The second problem is who pays.
Trump keeps saying other countries pay for tariffs. That’s not how they work.
Tariffs are effectively taxes on imported products. They’re paid by Americans.
Say there’s a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports. When Walmart imports “Mr. Coffee” machines from China (where they’re made), China doesn’t pay the 60 percent tariff to the U.S. government. Walmart does.
If Walmart had bought the coffee machine for $20 before the tariff, the 60 percent tariff requires Walmart to pay an extra $12 — bringing the total cost of each coffee machine to $32.
Walmart doesn’t want that extra $12 to cut into its profit margin, so it will try not to absorb that cost. Instead, it will pass the extra $12 on to its customers.
Walmart’s CEO has already said it expects to raise prices in response to Trump’s tariffs in order to protect its profits.
Targeted tariffscan be used to protect industries critical to national security.
This is what the Biden administration did when it levied tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, solar panels, computer chips, and batteries after making massive domestic investments in these technologies.
But Trump has proposed across-the-board tariffs on almost all imports — particularly from America’s largest trading partners.
While Americans will pay more for imported goods due to tariffs, countries that export the products to America are also harmed. American consumers presumably will buy fewer of their products, since they cost more. These countries are retaliating by raising tariffs on American exports.
On Monday, China began imposing tariffs on a range of American farm products, including a 15 percent levy on chicken, wheat, and corn.
These retaliatory tariffs will hurt America’s Farm Belt — mostly Republican states and Trump voters.
On Wednesday, after Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on all aluminum and steel imports coming into the United States from the rest of the world, the European Union announced retaliatory tariffs on about $28 billion worth of American exports, including beef and whiskey.
Not incidentally, Europe’s retaliatory tariffs are on goods mostly produced by Republican states (think Kentucky bourbon). Europe is also slapping tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, made in America’s Rust Belt.
On Thursday, in response to Europe’s tariffs, Trump threatened a 200 percent tariff on all alcoholic products from European Union member states. If he follows through, Trump voters will be paying more for much of the alcohol they consume.
Canada also announced new tariffs on about $21 billion worth of U.S. products.
This is called a trade war. There are no winners in such a war.
One of the biggest global trade wars started with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff in 1930. After the 1929 stock market crash, President Herbert Hoover and Republicans thought sweeping tariffs would help the economy.
They didn’t. Import prices surged, and exports plummeted because of other nations’ retaliatory tariffs. Global trade fell by 66 percent, worsening the Great Depression.
Smoot-Hawley seemed to prove that across-the-board tariffs don’t work. Then came Trump’s first term and his sweeping tariffs, largely on China.
Higher prices from Trump’s first-term tariffs on thousands of Chinese imports are estimated to have cost American families close to $80 billion.
This cost took a larger chunk out of the incomes of poorer families than richer ones.
If you make $50,000 a year, the cost of a coffee maker that rises due to tariffs affects you more than it does someone making $1 million a year who can better afford the price increase.
To put it another way, tariffs are a highly regressive tax.
Following Trump’s first-term tariffs on China, China retaliated with its own tariffs on American exports. This led China to import less from America.
In the U.S. agriculture industry alone, the result was a $27 billion loss in exports from mid-2018 to the end of 2019. Even though the government increased aid to affected farmers, farm bankruptcies shot up 20 percent.
Another consequence of Trump’s first-term trade war was that American manufacturing shrank, as demand for exports slumped and raw materials used in manufacturing became more expensive.
One study estimates that Trump’s first-term trade war cost nearly 300,000 American jobs.
Instead of learning a lesson from this fiasco, Trump is now promising even bigger tariffs — more tariff hikes on China and, starting on April 2, 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico.
These new tariffs would cost the typical American household an additional $1,200 this year. If Trump makes good on previous pledges to slap more tariffs on imports from around the world in addition to aluminum and steel, American families can expect to spend as much as $4,000 more.
Trump says he’ll use the revenue from tariffs to “offset” more of his big pending tax cut.
That tax cut will disproportionately benefit wealthy Americans and big corporations, as did Trump’s first-term tax cut. But revenue raised from such tariffs will be coming disproportionately from average working people and the poor.
Hence, it will be a massive transfer of wealth from most Americans to the super wealthy and giant corporations.
Will most Americans know that the higher prices they’ll pay for groceries, gas, housing, and all sorts of other things will be going into the pockets of the wealthy? Will they know whom to blame?
Trump was able to fool most Americans during his first term into believing he had created a marvelous economy for them and that they benefited from his tariffs and tax cuts.
It was a lie, of course. But he tells lots of lies that many Americans believe. Will he be able to do it again, on a much larger scale?
ALTERNET
Donald Trump believes his tariffs will bring so much money to the U.S. treasury that the U.S. will be able to afford another giant Trump tax cut.
But Trump’s tariffs — and the retaliatory tariffs already being imposed on American exports by the nation’s trading partners — will be paid largely by the American working class and poor.
And the people who will benefit most from another giant Trump tax cut are America’s wealthy.
It will be a giant upward transfer of wealth.
Trump has made astronomical estimates about how much money tariffs can raise.
“We will take in trillions and trillions of dollars and create jobs like we have never seen before,” he said during his recent joint address to Congress. “Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again.”
Last Sunday on Air Force One, Trump was even more ebullient. “We’re going to become so rich, you’re not going to know where to spend all that money,” he said.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that if Trump’s already-announced tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada went into effect, they’d bring about $120 billion a year into the U.S. treasury, and $1.3 trillion over the course of 10 years.
by Taboola
Among Trump’s first actions at the outset of his second term was to order the treasury to establish an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariff revenue that would enable the U.S. to pay down its debt and reduce taxes.
Howard Lutnick, Trump’s secretary of commerce, said on Fox News in late February that the goal of the External Revenue Service “is very simple: to abolish the Internal Revenue Service and let all the outsiders pay.”
In other words: The U.S. will raise so much money from Trump’s tariffs that Americans will no longer need to pay income taxes.
The first problem with this is mathematical. America raises about $3 trillion each year from income taxes. The nation also imports about $3 trillion worth of goods each year.
So to replace income taxes, tariffs would have to be at least 100 percent on all imported goods. Also, Americans would have to continue to import $3 trillion worth of goods every year. Neither of these is remotely plausible.
The second problem is who pays.
Trump keeps saying other countries pay for tariffs. That’s not how they work.
Tariffs are effectively taxes on imported products. They’re paid by Americans.
Say there’s a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports. When Walmart imports “Mr. Coffee” machines from China (where they’re made), China doesn’t pay the 60 percent tariff to the U.S. government. Walmart does.
If Walmart had bought the coffee machine for $20 before the tariff, the 60 percent tariff requires Walmart to pay an extra $12 — bringing the total cost of each coffee machine to $32.
Walmart doesn’t want that extra $12 to cut into its profit margin, so it will try not to absorb that cost. Instead, it will pass the extra $12 on to its customers.
Walmart’s CEO has already said it expects to raise prices in response to Trump’s tariffs in order to protect its profits.
Targeted tariffscan be used to protect industries critical to national security.
This is what the Biden administration did when it levied tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, solar panels, computer chips, and batteries after making massive domestic investments in these technologies.
But Trump has proposed across-the-board tariffs on almost all imports — particularly from America’s largest trading partners.
While Americans will pay more for imported goods due to tariffs, countries that export the products to America are also harmed. American consumers presumably will buy fewer of their products, since they cost more. These countries are retaliating by raising tariffs on American exports.
On Monday, China began imposing tariffs on a range of American farm products, including a 15 percent levy on chicken, wheat, and corn.
These retaliatory tariffs will hurt America’s Farm Belt — mostly Republican states and Trump voters.
On Wednesday, after Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on all aluminum and steel imports coming into the United States from the rest of the world, the European Union announced retaliatory tariffs on about $28 billion worth of American exports, including beef and whiskey.
Not incidentally, Europe’s retaliatory tariffs are on goods mostly produced by Republican states (think Kentucky bourbon). Europe is also slapping tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, made in America’s Rust Belt.
On Thursday, in response to Europe’s tariffs, Trump threatened a 200 percent tariff on all alcoholic products from European Union member states. If he follows through, Trump voters will be paying more for much of the alcohol they consume.
Canada also announced new tariffs on about $21 billion worth of U.S. products.
This is called a trade war. There are no winners in such a war.
One of the biggest global trade wars started with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff in 1930. After the 1929 stock market crash, President Herbert Hoover and Republicans thought sweeping tariffs would help the economy.
They didn’t. Import prices surged, and exports plummeted because of other nations’ retaliatory tariffs. Global trade fell by 66 percent, worsening the Great Depression.
Smoot-Hawley seemed to prove that across-the-board tariffs don’t work. Then came Trump’s first term and his sweeping tariffs, largely on China.
Higher prices from Trump’s first-term tariffs on thousands of Chinese imports are estimated to have cost American families close to $80 billion.
This cost took a larger chunk out of the incomes of poorer families than richer ones.
If you make $50,000 a year, the cost of a coffee maker that rises due to tariffs affects you more than it does someone making $1 million a year who can better afford the price increase.
To put it another way, tariffs are a highly regressive tax.
Following Trump’s first-term tariffs on China, China retaliated with its own tariffs on American exports. This led China to import less from America.
In the U.S. agriculture industry alone, the result was a $27 billion loss in exports from mid-2018 to the end of 2019. Even though the government increased aid to affected farmers, farm bankruptcies shot up 20 percent.
Another consequence of Trump’s first-term trade war was that American manufacturing shrank, as demand for exports slumped and raw materials used in manufacturing became more expensive.
One study estimates that Trump’s first-term trade war cost nearly 300,000 American jobs.
Instead of learning a lesson from this fiasco, Trump is now promising even bigger tariffs — more tariff hikes on China and, starting on April 2, 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico.
These new tariffs would cost the typical American household an additional $1,200 this year. If Trump makes good on previous pledges to slap more tariffs on imports from around the world in addition to aluminum and steel, American families can expect to spend as much as $4,000 more.
Trump says he’ll use the revenue from tariffs to “offset” more of his big pending tax cut.
That tax cut will disproportionately benefit wealthy Americans and big corporations, as did Trump’s first-term tax cut. But revenue raised from such tariffs will be coming disproportionately from average working people and the poor.
Hence, it will be a massive transfer of wealth from most Americans to the super wealthy and giant corporations.
Will most Americans know that the higher prices they’ll pay for groceries, gas, housing, and all sorts of other things will be going into the pockets of the wealthy? Will they know whom to blame?
Trump was able to fool most Americans during his first term into believing he had created a marvelous economy for them and that they benefited from his tariffs and tax cuts.
It was a lie, of course. But he tells lots of lies that many Americans believe. Will he be able to do it again, on a much larger scale?
Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/
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