Who Benefits From Telco Deregulation

Eric Reguly Business Columnist in yesterdays Globe and Mail (article is locked however this link is the Goggle cache) makes these interesting points about Industy Minister Maxime Bernier's decision to override the CRTC this week and give post Income Trust Kick Backs to Telus and Bell.

The point is that prices for Canadian telecom services are high by American standards and the changes announced by the government are unlikely to put a smile on your face when you rip open the phone bill. If prices were set to plunge, you wouldn't see the phone company bosses beaming like they had just invented Cheez Whiz. Bell Canada owner BCE predicted a 4- to 7-per-cent rise in earnings per share in 2007 on rising sales. Nice exactly a whack job on the industry, Mr. Bernier!

The new deregulation rules are designed to heat up local competition. Phone companies will no longer have to lose 25-per-cent market share to rivals before they are given the liberty to set prices as they chose. Instead, they will only have to show that at least three phone providers exist in the given market. The phone companies will also gain the right to use sales pitches to win back customers.

The Canadian wireless companies are making lavish profits. Rogers made almost 50 cents in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) for every dollar in revenue in the third quarter. Ditto Telus. Five years ago, the margins might have been half that amount. Forget finding a diamond deposit. If you want to get rich in this country, own a wireless business and maintain the fiction that there's enough competition to ensure customers get great deals.

And when it comes to real competition between these two and the cable companies, its only in two areas, broadband internet services including VOIP and cell-phones. And Berniers decision impacts both VOIP and the existing teleco monopoly of their local markets.

It's the cellphone and wireless market however where all the players are becoming filthy rich, and where the only real comptetion is occuring.

VANCOUVER (CP) - Telus Corp. (TSX:T) expects growth in its wireless, data and Internet businesses to outpace losses in its traditional phone service next year as competition looms in local markets. Canada's second-biggest phone company said Thursday it expects revenue growth of six to seven per cent revenue growth in 2007, an increase of about $550 million, to between $9.175 billion and $9.275 billion. Growth in earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortization was pegged at between four and seven per cent, with adjusted earnings per share between $3.25 and $3.45.

This article is locked at the Globe and Mail and so courtesy of Google I am reprinting it in whole.

QUEBEC VIEW: REGULATION

Watchdog lacks telco bite

KONRAD YAKABUSKI

From Thursday's Globe and Mail, December 14, 2006

MONTREAL — Industry Minister Maxime Bernier has demonstrated he's either devilishly cunning or naively misguided in suggesting consumers will be the big winners with his accelerated deregulation of Canada's local phone business. After all, not even he can deny that changes he announced on Monday will favour big telcos, none more so than the recently soul-searching BCE.

So what if bolstering BCE is exactly what Mr. Bernier wants to do? What if, for the federal government, BCE is to telecom what Air Canada is to airlines? That is, our national flag voice-and-data carrier.

BCE is still the only Canadian telecom that even merits mention in global rankings, and just barely at that. But with more than 12.2 million local telephone customers, it still dwarfs, by a multiple of at least 20, all of its direct competitors. Its upcoming name change back to Bell Canada only underscores its national champion status.

That's not to say Ottawa doesn't have a love-hate relationship with BCE, just as it loves and loathes Air Canada. But in the end, the national flag carrier, whether it transports people or pixels, gets special consideration in Ottawa. There's too much at stake for it not to.

How else do you explain Mr. Bernier's eagerness to neuter the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission? Or his leaving the Competition Bureau in charge of making sure BCE and Telus don't abuse dominant positions in the local phone market?

The Competition Bureau is the same agency Ottawa charged with ensuring Air Canada played well with others after it swallowed Canadian Airlines. Just as Mr. Bernier has now promised the bureau will vigorously police big telcos, Ottawa under the Liberals pledged back then that the watchdog would keep Air Canada in line. It even equipped the bureau with the power to issue scary-sounding "cease-and-desist" orders to stop the quasi-monopoly airline from undercutting upstarts' fares in order to drive them under. The bureau even used the power -- once -- before a Quebec court took it away, saying it deprived the airline of its right to due process.

That one instance set the stage for a three-year, multimillion-dollar legal battle, not just before the Quebec Court of Appeal, but also the Competition Tribunal, the quasi-judiciary body that rules on charges brought by the bureau.

In 2001, the latter had accused Air Canada of engaging in predatory pricing on five Eastern Canada routes in order to prevent WestJet and CanJet from viably competing there. The tribunal ruled in 2003 that Air Canada had indeed set prices below its "avoidable costs," a key piece of evidence needed to prove predatory pricing.

However, the bureau, under commissioner Sheridan Scott, abandoned the case in 2004, saying: "In light of the passage of time and the significant changes in the industry, we have concluded it would not be in the public interest to pursue the second part of this case." She was referring to Air Canada's bankruptcy filing and the arrival of Jetsgo as competitor. The only problem with this logic was that Air Canada's restructuring was not caused by competitive pressures, but rather its inability to juggle a bloated debt and cost structure in the wake of Sept. 11. Jetsgo, meanwhile, was toast only months after Ms. Scott's declaration.

The moral of this story is you can't count on the bureau to effectively police abuse of market dominance by companies in any sector. It takes way too long and almost always sides with the big boys. The London-based Global Competition Review has consistently concluded as much after several years of rating the agency poorly in its annual ranking of the developed world's watchdogs. In its latest report, it noted that 28 of 40 abuse-of-dominance cases were closed in 2005 with no fines or remedies issued.

It's not entirely the bureau's fault. It operates on the basis of competitor complaints and faces an almost unattainable burden of proof. Its budget has remained stagnant at about $30-million for about a decade, even though the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development called for a 50-per-cent increase in 2000. The workload is such that it has not even tabled a 2005 to 2006 report, almost nine months after its year-end.

In the 2004 to 2005 report, meanwhile, we are reminded it approved the takeover of Microcell by Rogers because "the transaction would not create or enhance market power in the mobile wireless market" nor "increase the likelihood of co-ordinated behaviour among the major cellular companies." Say what?

Now Mr. Bernier is promising us that the bureau, with a new power to slap $15-million fines on telcos, will keep BCE and Telus in line. Sorry, Mr. Bernier, you say rottweiler but all we see is lhasa apso.

Me thinks this author's Eastern Canadian bias is showing. Note he says that in Bell Canada is Canada's National Phone Company. Of course he would he works for a BCE owned newspaper, the Globe and Mail. He lives in Quyebec and Bell is dominant in Ontario and Quebec Canada's largest population centres.

That being said Telus is not just number two in Canada but a far more flexible player than BCE which is now encumbered not just with its Teleco business but with its ownership of other media, CTV, Globe and Mail etc. The irony of course is that if as he says the Conservatives are protecting Bell Canada in their recent move to tax Income Trusts, and to over-ride the CRTC, then they are protecting one of the largest corporate homes of Liberal Party movers and shakers.

Ask yourself if that makes political sense. Of course not.

In reality it is the Conservatives ideology of deregulation that is driving thier moves, which benefit both Telus and Bell. They hate the Wheat Board, and they hate the CRTC. Heck they hate the CBC so watch out. However the neo-liberal market ideology of the Tories does not help consumers, despite their rhetorical excuses, ironically it actually does the opposite of creating a competitive market it helps monopolize the market place.

How telecom reform topped Bernier's agenda

Mr. Bernier listened as the telecom review panel members argued that VoIP, a breakthrough technology that allows phone calls to be made through Internet infrastructure, is an important niche that should be left as unfettered as possible. They said there were also questions about whether governments can do much to regulate such border-free technologies, anyway.

For Mr. Bernier, a staunch advocate of free markets and small government, it was a critical moment.

Mr. Bernier, a lawyer and former executive with the Montreal Economic Institute, a free-markets think tank, would eventually open up part of the VoIP market while also charting a course that would put him in conflict with more pragmatic members of cabinet and within the senior ranks of his new department. Some in each of those influential groups would prefer that the Beauce, Que., native focus more on specific policy goals, instead of broader philosophical ideals.

This week, he added to his roster of telecom changes when he announced that he intends to overrule another major CRTC decision, this time the commission's move to continue regulating local phone services.

'Man of action' or just ignoring consumers?

Eamon Hoey, senior partner at consultancy Hoey Associates, has a different view. He says Mr. Bernier has done nothing but make the big telephone companies happy before the Christmas season.

"[Mr.] Bernier is looking at this problem through the eyes of the carriers and the providers, rather than from the perspective of the consumers," Mr. Hoey said. "He has to figure out the needs of consumers that aren't being served and why, rather than saying if we deregulate them all then we'll end up where we need to go."

This week, Mr. Bernier said the federal government was scrapping CRTC rules on local phone deregulation and proposing its own guidelines. His rules, which could be implemented as early as February, would see much of urban Canada deregulated as long as it can be proven there are at least two wireline phone carriers -- a combination of either Bell Canada or Telus and a cable company -- in a given market.

This is seen as a major victory for BCE Inc. and Telus Corp., which have argued they are constrained in efforts to compete against cable companies and Web-based players because of CRTC constraints.

It was the second time he dismissed CRTC guidelines in favour of more market-friendly options, as recommended in the blue-chip Telecommunications Policy Review panel report tabled last March.

Less than a month ago, Mr. Bernier said VoIP services, or Voice over Internet Protocol, would not be subject to regulation, as the CRTC had recommended. "It makes the CRTC look up toward the Minister and say, 'What do you want me to do next, boss?,' " Mr. Hoey said

Bernier rewrites CRTC's forebearance ruling

In a move to accelerate his desire to deregulate telecommunications in favour of market forces, Industry Canada Minister Maxime Bernier outlined new criteria for determining when the CRTC should forbear, or refrain, from regulating local telephone service provided by the former monopoly telephone companies. Business customers, for example, would have to have access to at least two fixed-line facilities-based service providers for forbearance to occur – an incumbent, for example, and a cable company -- while consumers would also have to have access to at least one wireless service provider.

“It’s an entirely different ideological mindset,” said Ian Angus, principal analyst with Angus Telemanagement in Ajax, Ont. “The CRTC had said a market is competitive when there are successful competitors – companies that have achieved enough success to survive in business. The minister is saying if there is facilities-based competition, then it’s competitive and we will deregulate.”

One of the areas left out of the proposal is any provision for re-establishing regulation if various geographic zones return to a monopoly, Angus added. “What happens in five years down the line if we have competition in most cities and the cable companies decide they can’t survive, that it’s just too expensive?”

And being the Party of Western Canada, as we have heard over the last few days from various Cabinet ministers and the PM himself (We represent Western Canadian Farmers who voted for us not the Liberals) I suspect that the Tories are as eager to see Telus benefit as they are Bell. In fact I think they see deregulation benefiting Telus more in the Telco market, in direct competition with Bell, than benefiting Bell. Bell's business is too widely distributed now, and their telecommunications business is their weak spot.

I do like his criticism of the Competition Bureau. And over all the business press has been far more critical of the governments moves to deregulate than those who simply are ideologically opposed to the CRTC (it certainly needs to be reformed to represent us the taxpayers and consumers and not the industry and corporate interests) or who have an unwavering belief in the neo-liberal myths that deregualtion and privatization are the be all and end all of reforming the market place.

See:

Telus

BCE

CRTC

Bernier

Find blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:
Government, CRTC, Maxime Bernier, Industry Minister, Telus, Bell, Shaw, Rodgers, BCE, CTV, GlobeandMail, Conservatives, deregulation, VOIP, cellphones, telcos, Canada, telephones, communications, monopoly, telcom, wireless, internet, consumers, politics,

Tweedle Dee Tweedle Dum Petro Tales

One increases its investements in production and the other cuts investment in production and yet both can offer shareholders huge dividends. Without turning into Income Trusts.

In the case of Petro-Can shouldn't someone take the Liberals to task about the fact that they sold off our shares in the once crown corporation, for a one time attempt to buy votes by declaring a surplus under PM Paul Martin. Cutting one's nose to spite one's face.

Petro-Canada to raise capital spending by 15 per cent to $4.1B

Oil and gas giant Petro-Canada Inc. (TSX:PCA) plans to raise capital spending by 15 per cent to $4.1 billion in 2007 and grow output as major projects come onstream despite more problems or delays at its Terra Nova and Hibernia projects off the coast of Newfoundland.

Petro-Canada announced late Thursday it expects to boost oil and gas production about 15 per cent in 2007 to about 420,000 barrels of oil equivalent output a day from 390,000 barrels this year.

In another development, Petro-Canada said it's boosting its quarterly dividend to 13 cents a share from 10 cents, a 30 per cent jump in the cash payment to stockholders.

The increased dividend will be payable April 1 to shareholders of record as of March 3, 2007.

EnCana cuts capital spending by 6 pct for 2007
EnCana Corp. (ECA.TO: Quote, Profile , Research) will cut spending by 6 percent to $5.9 billion in 2007 as it grapples with cost inflation due to booming energy-industry conditions, Canada's biggest oil and gas producer said on Thursday. EnCana also said it planned to double its quarterly dividend next year, resulting in an annual payout of 80 cents a share. Stock buybacks could total 3 percent to 5 percent of those outstanding in 2007, compared with 10 percent this year.

Stocks advance as oil heads up

Oil prices rise after OPEC sets stage for possible cut next year

See

Encana

Oil


Find blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:
Encana, Petro-Canada, Liberals, Canada, Oil sands, Tar sands, gas, oil, petro dollars, energy, dividends, Alberta

The Fountain Of Youth

Is not a fountain. It is the Turtle. Whom it turns out are not only living fossils but the longest living teenagers. And we are it's only real enemy and the reason for its possible extinction.

“Turtles don’t really die of old age,” Dr. Raxworthy said. In fact, if turtles didn’t get eaten, crushed by an automobile or fall prey to a disease, he said, they might just live indefinitely

Turtles resist growing old, and they resist growing up. Dr. Zug and his co-workers recently determined that among some populations of sea turtles, females do not reach sexual maturity until they are in their 40s or 50s, which Dr. Zug proposes could be “a record in the animal kingdom.”

Turtles are also ancient as a family. The noble chelonian lineage that includes all living turtles and tortoises extends back 230 million years or more, possibly predating other reptiles like snakes and crocodiles, as well as birds, mammals, even the dinosaurs.

The turtle’s core morphology has changed little over time, and today’s 250 or so living species all display an unmistakable resemblance to the earliest turtle fossils. Yet the clan has evolved a dazzling array of variations on its blockbuster theme, allowing it to colonize every continent save Antarctica and nearly every type of biome nested therein: deserts; rainforests; oceans; rivers; bogs; mountains; New Brunswick, Canada; New Brunswick, N.J.

With its miserly metabolism and tranquil temperament, its capacity to forgo food and drink for months at a time, its redwood burl of a body shield, so well engineered it can withstand the impact of a stampeding wildebeest, the turtle is one of the longest-lived creatures Earth has known. Individual turtles can survive for centuries, bearing silent witness to epic swaths of human swagger. Last March, a giant tortoise named Adwaita said to be as old as 250 years died in a Calcutta zoo, having been taken to India by British sailors, records suggest, during the reign of King George II. In June, newspapers around the world noted the passing of Harriet, a Galapagos tortoise that died in the Australia Zoo at age 176 — 171 years after Charles Darwin is said, perhaps apocryphally, to have plucked her from her equatorial home.

Behind such biblical longevity is the turtle’s stubborn refusal to senesce — to grow old. Don’t be fooled by the wrinkles, the halting gait and the rheumy gaze. Researchers lately have been astonished to discover that in contrast to nearly every other animal studied, a turtle’s organs do not gradually break down or become less efficient over time.

Imke Lass for The New York Times, at the University of Georgia, Savannah River Ecology Lab

From top, a leopard tortoise, a South African land-based species and a common pet. Center, a New Guinea snakeneck turtle, a carnivorous species found in the river system in the southern part of the country. Above, a big-headed turtle, native to mountain streams in Southern China and related to North American snapping turtles.

Find blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:
science, turtles, extinction, fountain of youth, prehistoric, livingfossils, marine, land,

Baba Sitting

As I have said here before the childcare in Alberta is based on baby sitting provided by Baba. Which is now the Federal Conservative child care plan. And this is the result that Canadians can look forward to...

A report presented to Cochrane's town council last week concluded that the town has only 12 provincially approved child-care spots for its 12,400 residents, with private day homes and babysitters filling the gap.

At tip o' the blog to My Blahg

See

Daycare

Childcare

Whose Family Values?

Find blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:
baba, babasitting, babysitting, privatedaycare, childcare, daycare, Banff, Cochrane, Alberta, Canada, Harper, Conservatives, babybonus, government, women, families

Tax Breaks For Some

Let's see the PM's son plays hockey so we have a tax break for sports.

Social Conservatives hate the Status of Women and so it's eliminated by the death of a thousand funding cuts.

They tax the Income Trusts but offer wealthy middle class retired couples income splitting, pandering for the Seniors vote.

Now the Conservative Government is offering a tax break for disabled children and their caregivers. Generosity, compasionate conservatism or opportunism? You decide....

Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty expects the next budget will include a plan to allow parents of severely disabled children to set aside up to $200,000 tax-free for their care.

The report, which was written by a panel established by Mr. Flaherty and led by Toronto tax lawyer Jim Love, also calls on Ottawa to provide parents of children with severe disabilities with cash grants of at least $1,000 annually over 20 years, and to double those payments to low-income families.

When asked yesterday if he liked the dollar amounts included in the panel's report, Mr. Flaherty, the father of teen triplet sons, one of whom has a mental disability as a result of contracting encephalitis when a toddler, replied, "Yes, I do."

And he offered hope to parents of disabled children that they may not have to wait long to see the recommendations implemented.

See

Tax Cuts

Flaherty


Find blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:
severely disabled children, disabled, diability, Canada, Flaherty, tax-custs, tax-credits, Canada, parents, caregivers, Government, Conservatives

Mars Or Bust

Well in this case its a bust for the Canadian Space Agency and Canada's value added high tech industries that are leading edge in space robotics.

Ottawa scraps plans for Canadian-built Mars rover

Harkening back to the days of Diefenbaker Conservatives who abolished the Avro Arrow program for the sake of the American Military Industrial complex, this time its nothing as sinister. Just good old fashioned incompetence, and internal squabbaling over the spoils of government largese and patronage.

There currently is no head of the Canadian Space Agency. And for the past decade the agency has had its budget cut under the Liberals. Now the Conservatives dither over funding a project that Canada is leading the field in. A project that both the Europeans and NASA are willing to pay for!

Hello what was that Jim Flaherty was talking about in his fall pre-budget announcement oh yeah Advantage Canada. Well that advantage apparently does not extend to our expertise in space exploration technology.

Another Avro in the making. Nice to see non partisan outrage over this in the blogosphere,Progressive Bloggers have posted on this latest impact of Tory funding cuts. And as usual the silence is deafening over at the Blogging Sorries.

Oh yes and by the way this was a scoop by CBC, the taxpayer funded public network, not CTV or Global. Hat tip to our public broadcaster.

The federal government has turned down a request by Canada's space industry to support a contract that would have allowed the companies to build the European Space Agency's Mars surface rover, CBC News has learned.

The decision stunned the companies and has left the ESA scrambling to find a new partner, as no European firm is adequately prepared to match the technical abilities of Canadian firms to build its ExoMars rover.

A computer rendition of the ExoMars rover, which the European Space Agency wanted the Canadian space industry to build for a planned mission to Mars by 2015.
(European Space Agency)

The ESA wanted Canadian space companies — considered world leaders in robotics — to build the rover for its planned exploration of Mars by 2015. The rover would have a far more sophisticated robotics package than the current U.S. platforms in use.

In July, the companies made an impassioned presentation to federal Industry Ministry officials for a clearer mandate for the Canadian Space Agency, which included making the Mars rover project its top priority, the CBC's Henry Champ told the CBC's Don Newman Thursday on Politics.

The project required no additional funding from Ottawa, but was contingent upon $100 million over 10 years from the existing CSA budget being redirected to the program by restructuring priorities and cancelling or postponing other projects, according to documents obtained by the CBC.

But just a few short weeks after the presentation, Industry Minister Maxime Bernier told the companies the government hadn't made up its mind about the future of Canada's space role and didn't want to go forward with the project.

See

Space

Find blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:
space, space exploration, Tories, Conservatives, Canada, Canadian Space Agency, EuropeanSPACeAgency, NASA, ESA, CSA, robotics, Canada Arm, roboticarm, Exo Mars, rover, mars, Industry Minister Maxime Bernier,
Avro Arrow, Diefenbaker, techonolgy, AdvantageCanada, Conservatives, politics, government, budget,

Hanging Out With Warlords

While Conservative Cheerleaders at the Blogging Tories and Pro-War Liberals like to besmerch Jack Layton with the epithat; Taliban Jack, perhaps they would like to explain why RH Stephen Harper has been hanging around with a warlord, Mullah Naqib, whose connection with the Taliban were such that he was usurped from govenorship of Kandahar thanks to the CIA and US special forces.

Why the main suspect in the death of a Canadian diplomat walked free

Mullah Naqib shakes hands with Prime Minister Stephen Harper in March, less than two months after the Kandahar elder helped free the main suspect in Glyn Berry’s death.

The key to Mohammed's release was Mullah Naqib, an important ally of the Afghan government who has been commanding respect in Kandahar since his days fighting the Russians. In a country where blood is everything, Mohammed was lucky enough to be born a member of the old warlord's tribe.

It's a measure of Naqib's standing - and a reminder that loyalty is a complicated thing in Afghanistan - that just months after Berry's death, the warlord stood on the grounds of a military base in Kandahar and shook hands with another Canadian, Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who was making a quick visit in March.

In an interview, Naqib warmly remembered his meeting with Harper, saying the prime minister extended a friendly invitation to visit Canada. "He said, 'Please come to my country,' " Naqib recalled, chuckling.

NDP blasts association with warlord -

From Hansard - 96 (2006/12/12)

Ms. Alexa McDonough (Halifax, NDP):

Mr. Speaker, yesterday's Globe and Mail carried a picture of the Prime Minister shaking hands with Afghan warlord Mullah Naqib, a man who admits using his influence to free a leading suspect in the masterminding of the suicide bombing that killed Canadian diplomat Glyn Berry and injured three of our soldiers. Can the Prime Minister explain Canada's relationship with Mullah Naqib and why he saw fit to meet with him?

Right Hon. Stephen Harper (Prime Minister, CPC):
Very briefly, Mr. Speaker, I met Mullah Naqib when I visited the Canadian provincial reconstruction team in Kandahar, where he met me as part of a delegation of Canadian and Afghan officials. He was introduced to me as an individual who had been involved in the insurgency and was now working on our side. I would point out that if the hon. member reads the rest of the story carefully, she will see that much of the allegations in there are speculative.

Ms. Alexa McDonough (Halifax, NDP):

Mr. Speaker, this situation gets worse. Not only did the Prime Minister stage a photo op with this shadowy warlord, he rolled out the welcome mat for Naqib to visit Canada.

Is offering hospitality and a handshake to the warlord credited with subverting the police investigation into these tragic Canadian deaths the Prime Minister's concept of justice for the families of diplomat Glyn Berry and three of our soldiers wounded in action? Or, given Mullah Naqib's close association with the Taliban leadership, is this the Prime Minister's notion of dialogue with combatants? Which is it?

Right Hon. Stephen Harper (Prime Minister, CPC):

Once again, Mr. Speaker, I was introduced to Mullah Naqib, and in fact at the Glyn Berry room, at the provincial reconstruction team in Kandahar. He was introduced to me as an individual who was assisting Canadian and Afghan government officials.

Perhaps the PMO should have briefed Steve about Mullah Naqib by getting him to read these books. And these news reports from the time and then these later articles;

Outside Kandahar, some anti-Taliban forces mobilized behind Hamid Karzai, a commander who supports the exiled King Mohammed Zahir Shah. Karzai spent weeks working undercover in Afghanistan, drawing on his old tribal networks and recruiting chieftains to join the battle. His strategy was to sever the Taliban from its tribal links, winning over local chiefs with promises of peace and international aid. Karzai's men advanced from Uruzgan, north of Kandahar; on the other side of the city, thousands of armed men from southern border towns loyal to another tribal elder, Ghul Agha Sherzai, moved into positions in the hills in the east. A delegation of tribal elders led by Abdul Haqiq, a former mujahedin commander, spent three days with Taliban representatives negotiating the handover of Kandahar and three other southern Afghan provinces. Under the plan, Mullah Naqib, an ex-commander, and Haji Bashar, a businessman allegedly linked to the opium trade, would both become interim leaders of Kandahar.

With the airport in Gul Agha's hands, the Taliban needed to flee Kandahar. They made a hasty deal to surrender the city to Mullah Naqib Ullah, a onetime commander who was on friendly terms with them. Mullah Naqib Ullah, in turn, would support Karzai. It's not clear whether Gul Agha was part of the deal or whether he was being cut out, or what role the United States might have played, but Gul Agha's forces rushed from the airport to the dusty city and captured it without firing a shot on Dec. 7. The Taliban were finished; Gul Agha was the victor.

Kandahar will be run by Gul Agha, who was deposed as governor of the city when the Taliban seized control in 1994. His deputy will be Mullah Naqibullah, a former Taliban supporter who oversaw the surrender of Taliban forces on Friday.

CNN.com - Transcripts

ROBERTSON: Some are people are telling us -- with all respect to Mullah Naqib that they think that he is not suitable to be the new governor or administrator of Kandahar and that's why the situation we're in now, where Mr. Gulazar (ph), Mullah Naqib...

KARZAI: Mr. Mullah Naqib is not the governor of Kandahar. He just helped with the surrender of power by the Taliban. Those things will be determined by the central government.

Tuesday, October 10th, 2006
Sarah Chayes on Life in Afghanistan After the Taliban and Why She Left NPR

AMY GOODMAN: You, very early on in your book, talk about a report you couldn’t do or didn’t get in onto NPR. What was that story?

SARAH CHAYES: It was really this story. It was, I watched -- there were U.S. Special Forces that were embedded in a group, a kind of tribal militia, which was directed to put pressure on Kandahar from the south. President Karzai also had U.S. Special Forces with him. He was coming down toward Kandahar from the north. The Taliban surrendered to him. They left. Al-Qaeda left the city. The city was in the hands of President Karzai and his chosen representative, and then these U.S. Special Forces urged this warlord to take the city by force from President Karzai.

AMY GOODMAN: Wait, now, explain how this went down and how you understood what was happening. You were on the border with this --?

SARAH CHAYES: I was on the border. I was not with this group, but I was on the border, and I was listening to the radio, where a lot of this played out, and I was speaking to people who were coming back across the border, and I knew that President Karzai had designated a certain person whose name is Mullah Naqib to be governor of Kandahar. And then, suddenly this warlord is in the city. And then, there’s this huge and angry standoff, which is being played out on the airwaves of the BBC actually, of their Pashto Service, and this warlord is saying, “No, I’m going to be governor of Kandahar.” And I knew there was something strange. And eventually that’s what happened. And Mullah Naqib basically pled old age and said, “Oh, I’m too old.” And I thought, “That’s not right.” You know.

Power shift in Afghanistan | csmonitor.com December 10, 2001

The problems that beset the victorious Afghan factions in Kandahar are a composite of the challenges that Afghanistan's new rulers face in cities around the country, and indeed, in the formation of a new national government. Even though most of the warlords and political leaders who now control Afghanistan shared a common goal of throwing out the Taliban, their agreement ended once the Taliban were defeated. Now, some top warlords, such as Pashtun leaders Pir Syed Gailani and Haji Abdul Qadir, reject the new interim national government put together last week in Bonn. Uzbek General Abdul Rashid Dostum told US officials yesterday he will now cooperate with the new interim government.

In a country with so many possible dividing lines - by ethnicity, language, religion, and tribe - Afghanistan's new leaders are searching for ways to bind their country together.

The man who bears this burden is Hamid Karzai, a southern Pashtun leader who was recently selected as Afghanistan's interim leader. This week, Mr. Karzai has been shuttling between rival warlords in the city of Kandahar. Unlike Pashtun expatriates in the Pakistani city of Peshawar, who had organized an anti-Taliban council called the Eastern Shura before taking the eastern city of Jalalabad, the Pashtuns of the south have no such council. This leaves them with the unwieldy task of forging political alliances between armed groups, while the smoke of war is still clearing.

The chief dispute in Kandahar lies between Pashtun warlord and former Kandahar governor Gul Agha Sherzai and another former governor, Mullah Naqib Ullah, who handed over the government of Kandahar to the nascent Taliban movement seven years ago. Mr. Gul Agha's followers criticize Mullah Naqib for his close ties to the Taliban, while Mullah Naqib's supporters say that Gul Agha's troops are unruly thieves.

Kandahar on brink of chaos as warlords ready for battle

War in Afghanistan: Observer special

Peter Beaumont in Quetta
Sunday December 9, 2001


Residents of the Taliban's former headquarters city of Kandahar were last night bracing themselves for a return to the inter-factional fighting that raged there until the Taliban took control in 1994, as evidence grew that militias were preparing to fight for control of the city.

Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan's new interim leader, called a shura, or council, to resolve the differences. But former factional leaders seemed already busy accumulating men and weapons for a return to civil war.

According to Pashtun tribal sources in Quetta in neighbouring Pakistan, commanders loyal to Gul Agha Sherzai, the former governor of Kandahar, who is angry that the city has been handed over to his bitter rival, Mullah Naqib Ullah, has been recruiting men in Pakistan to join his forces.

Gul Agha has a house in Quetta, home to thousands of refugees who have fled Afghanistan's two decades of conflict. 'I know his commanders were here last week,' said one source in the city. 'They are actively recruiting and moving men across the border.'

There are conflicting reports over the whereabouts of the Taliban's supreme spiritual leader, Mullah Omar, who escaped Kandahar, apparently with the connivance of the man who accepted the Taliban surrender, Mullah Naqib Ullah.

The threat of fighting over the spoils comes amid increasing international concern over deepening splits across Afghanistan's tribal, nationalist and religious divide, despite the agreement to form a broad-based interim government, headed by Karzai, due to be inaugurated on 22 December. Aid workers and diplomats in the region claim the tensions have hastened Afghanistan's descent into lawlessness as the Taliban disintegrated.

Already Uzbeki General Rashid Dostum has protested against the way power was shared out by the Bonn talks, making veiled threats of a return to war. Some sources claim Dostum has had satellite phone talks with Gul Agha to discuss a joint strategy.

Pashtun sources in Quetta allied to Hamid Karzai told The Observer the real problem was Gul Agha, who they claim has enjoyed the support of the Pakistani intelligence agencies. Until Gul Agha is 'removed', they say, there cannot be a solution.

At least four groups allied to former Mujahideen commanders appeared to be moving fighters into the city. At the centre of the dispute is the issue of who controls Kandahar, the scene of two months of ferocious US bombing attacks.

Following his personal negotiation of the surrender of Kandahar, Karzai agreed that the Taliban should hand over control of the city to Mullah Naqib Ullah, who has enjoyed good relations with them for years.

Indeed, it was Naqib Ullah's agreement to quit Kandahar with his fighters in 1994 that handed the keys of the city to the Taliban. According to his detractors - including Gul Agha ,who reoccupied his old headquarters on Friday - Mullah Naqib Ullah is Taliban in all but name.

'There is a shura in the city now to try to figure out how to control the situa tion,' said Khalid Pashtun, spokesman for Gul Agha.

He said the council included Hamid Karzai, Gul Agha and Mullah Naqib Ullah. 'Mullah Naqib Uullah is also there, but that is the biggest obstacle,' Pashtun declared by satellite telephone. 'Right now, we have to convince Mullah Naqib Uullah to stand aside.'

On Friday night, Pashtun all but accused Naqib Ullah of harbouring Mullah Omar and 1,000 followers. 'Our information is telling us that Omar and some other leaders, they are all with Mullah Naqib Ullah.'

As well as forces loyal to Naquib Ullah, Mullah Haji Bashar (who is based in nearby Spin Boldak) and Karzai, former commanders attached to the Hezbe-i-Islami leader, Engineer Hekmatyar, occupied Qishla-i-Jadeed garrison on the outskirts of the city.

Reports in the Pakistani media claimed some other unaffiliated commanders, including Kabibulah Khan, had taken control of Taliban tanks and armoury in the Bagh-i-Pul area and moved their fighters to Kandahar. Ustad Abdul Halim, another former Mujahideen commander from Professor Sayyaf's Itthead-i-Islami, was also reported en route to the battered city to revive his forces and seek a role in the new administration.

All these commanders had divided Kandahar into fiefdoms until their ejection in 1994. They were so hated that the Taliban captured the city and surrounding province almost without a fight.

Evidence has emerged of the devastation rained on Kandahar during the past two months, in particular on the Taliban positions. One Taliban official said: 'Our defence lines were broken. Seven times we tried to rebuild them and every time they bombed. 'Rows and rows of Taliban soldiers were killed and we couldn't even find the bodies.'

The Talibs

The Mujahideen had literally fallen apart, fighting each other as fiercely as they had fought the Soviets, the commanders becoming warlords in the territories they ruled over e.g. Ismail Khan became Governor Herat, Mullah Naqib Kandahar, Haji Qadeer Jalalabad, etc. Lesser commanders simply became brigands, blocking roads and imposing “taxes” at will. Absolute lawlessness ruled the land, rape, loot and pillage became the order of the day.

The new Afghan Armed Forces became an amalgam of elements of the Soviet trained Afghan Army and lateral entries from the Afghan Mujahideen. Most of those inducted were Tajik and Uzbek loyalists of Defence Minister Ahmed Shah Masood (the actual man in power), this alienated the majority Pashtuns. Holding the major cities and the military bases around the country, Masood abandoned the countryside to the Mujahideen-turned-bandits. The withdrawing Soviets left a vast surplus of defence material, particularly tanks, fighter aircraft, helicopters and ammunition of all kinds, greased and packed in crates.

With Masood increasingly hostile, his troops stood by as a mob set the Pakistan Embassy on fire, the Benazir Government in 1994 mandated the ISI to help the traders secure a route for Central Asia through Kandahar and Herat to Turghundi. Unwittingly Ms Benazir acted as a midwife to the birth of the Taliban. A convoy of Pakistan trucks was intercepted by the local Mujahideen Commander in Hilmand along with the accompanying ISI operatives. When the Governor Kandahar Mullah Naqib expressed his helplessness, ISI requested Mullah Zakiri, who was in Quetta, for help. A small group of Talibs led by a relative obscure religious preacher Mullah Umar, who had lost an eye during the Afghan War, freed the convoy. Welcomed as saviours, the Talibs replaced Mullah Naqib. Hundreds of Talibs from all over rushed to join the Talibs in Kandahar. With Kandahar in their control Mujahideen from the other factions and even entire units of the Armed Forces defected to the Talibs. The world could not believe that these country yokels, now known as the Taliban, could handle sophisticated weapons. They concluded these were Pakistani skilled personnel despite the fact that Soviet origin equipment (except for MI-8 helicopters) is not in use in Pakistan. For their own individual selfish purposes some ISI officers, started the myth that Pakistan created the Taliban, this damaged Pakistan no end. True that Pakistan has been giving money and material support, far cheaper than to have refugees costing many times more for their upkeep.

The Taliban restored law and order by clearing the roadblocks of all bandits and disarming everyone not in the new militia. Fed up of years of lawlessness and atrocities, the population welcomed the cleanliness of Taliban governance. Provinces fell without firing a single shot when the local commanders came over to the Taliban side. Fully 90% of those called Taliban were not Talibs and have never been Talibs, many have never been to any school or Madrassah. The Taliban ultimately took over control of Kabul in 1996 from Masood, his forces withdrawing to the safety of his native Panjsher Valley. Masood was brave but parochial in looking only after the Tajik interest. This myopic vision created anarchy in all of Afghanistan except Kabul, a set-piece environment for takeover by the Pashtun-dominated Taliban. Mazar-i-Sharif changed hands a couple of times before Rashid Dostum fled.

An Introduction of the Taliban

The cycle of violence, destruction, and chaos of the Mujahideen era created the condition for the rise of the puritanical Taliban. There are several versions of how a small group of taliban, led by Mullah Muhammad Omar took control of areas around Qandahar in 1994.

According to the most widely circulated account amongst the residents of Qandahar, a group of "madrasee" (belonging or originating from a Madrasa) taliban, headed by Mullah Mohammad Omar arrived in Afghanistan with the intent to re-establish law and order and to re-organize themselves. They took residence in a school near Dand in Qandahar. On September 20, 1994, an Afghan family on its way to Herat from Qandahar, was looted, its male members molested, and its female members were raped by gangs manning one of the so-called "check points" along the route. One of the victims escapes and reaches the newly established Taliban compound. The story goes that Mullah Omar and his followers rushed to the scene, capturing the perpetrators, executing them on the spot and then collecting and burying the bodies of the victims. It is this faithful incident, the Taliban claim, that marked the beginning of their campaign in Afghanistan. The Taliban then moved in and disarmed other groups in the area. They began consolidating their position and procuring weapons by winning the allegiance of several local military commanders. Among the groups who surrendered to the Taliban (through a peaceful arrangement) was that of Mullah Naqib, who along with a group of other warlords, had divided up the province amongst themselves. One of these warlords was Lalai, a former thief and "Sarbaz" (communist militia) who had defected to the Mojahedin during the Jihad era and had now become a post Jihad era warlord of a sector of Qandahar. While there is no a consensus about the triggering events that would mark the rise of the Taliban, it is clear that the initial popularity of the Taliban was due to the complete collapse of law and order under the so called Mujahideen era, which had officially begun in 1992.

UNHCR Emergency & Security Service AFGHANISTAN: INTERNAL POLITICS.

.

Towards the end of 2001, Gul Agha Shirzai, the pre-Taliban governor of Kandahar,
successfully challenged Governor Mullah Naqib Ullah for the governorship of the province.
Naqib was supported by his tribe, the Alikozay, which is stronger than the Shirzai tribe, but
Gul Agha had the support of the US military. However, he also chose to build a form of
coalition among Pashtun tribes, giving some positions to members of the Alikozay and
playing on ethnic Pashtun pride by supporting Amanullah Khan (a Pashtun commander south
of Shindand) against the multi-ethnic forces of Ismail Khan. Gul Agha also declared his
allegiance to President Karzaï.
These examples illustrate that, in the Pashtun tribal belt, the ‘winner’ is the one who succeeds
in getting support from the dominant players (the Afghan state and the US army) or who is
able to benefit from lack of co-ordination between them. But there is always a need for some
sort of ‘godfather’ due to the existence of a power balance between the tribes, who are all
engaged in a permanent negotiating process in which they rely heavily on external brokers.
The warlords will achieve substantive power only if there is rivalry or lack of co-ordination
between the dominant external actors. Hence the significance of the US decision in late 2002
to cease dealing directly with local warlords and using them as proxies in the war against Al
Qaeda. Such a withdrawal is necessary if the fragile central state is to have sufficient leverage
and room for manoeuvre in its relations with provincial leaders.

A House Divided? Analysing the 2005 Afghan Elections

Agha Lalai Dastgeeri, PC candidate, explains Alokozai voter organisation
One month prior to the elections, the elders of the Alokozai tribe met at the house of Mullah Naqib [the current leader of the Alokozais in Kandahar]. All the candidates gave their speeches highlighting their aims and policies. Some tribal elders, including Mullah Naqib, were then selected and given the authority to choose the candidates on behalf of the tribe. They went to a separate room and selected one Wolesi Jirga candidate and three Provincial Council candidates. But some of the candidates did not agree with the decision of the tribe…Thirty years of war has destroyed the old tribal system. Before there were very few tribal elders – now there are many and there are many divisions between children. They are not unified. Many jihadi groups and political parties have also divided people and have weakened the tribal system.

Source: Interview with Agha Lalai Dastgeeri, Kandahar, 8 October 2005

The frequently heard statement that “people voted according to how they were told to vote by
the tribal elders” did not prove to be true in the case of the Alokozais. The endorsement of the
Alokozai tribal elders, including the tribal leader Mullah Naqib, clearly did not result in most
Alokozais voting for Haji Shahkaka, who ended up in fifteenth place in the WJ contest.
Different explanations were given for this poor showing. Some felt that the choice of
candidates was the problem, as Haji Shahkaka, although a respected tribal elder, was quite
old and not very powerful or influential. The theme that voters wanted powerful and influential
representatives who would be effective in delivering patronage and resolving their problems
emerged in many interviews. There had been a stronger Alokozai candidate, Izzatullah
Wasefi, who belongs to an influential Alokozai family from Kandahar. However, following his
appointment by President Karzai as Governor of Farah Province, he withdrew as a candidate.
Some blamed weak tribal leadership for the Alokozais’ poor performance. Mullah Naqib, other
than hosting the meeting where the candidates were selected, largely remained disengaged
from the election campaign. Unlike many other tribal leaders, Mullah Naqib chose not to contest the elections, reportedly preferring instead to focus on his business interests.
Furthermore, Khan Mohammad, the powerful former Alokozai militia commander and head of
the Kandahar Garrison, had lost influence in Kandahar since his appointment as the Chief of
Police in Balkh Province. As one interviewee noted, the Alokozais failed to organise because
“Wasefi didn’t campaign, Mullah Naqib sat back and did not actively participate, and Khan
Mohammad is in Mazar.”

See

Warlords


Afghanistan







Find blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:
Mullah Naqib, Glyn Berry, Alexa McDonough, Afghanistan, Taliban, Kandahar, Stephen Harper, PM, Canada, Conservatives, warlords, Karzai, Pashtun, NDP, Layton, Troops Out, War, Harper, politics, military, NATO, peacekeeping, Government, Politics,


Tags
Canada
USA
War
Friendly Fire
Canadian Troops
Afghanistan
Kandahar
NATO

On Our Backs

Alberta Report, a new blog covering provincial politcs, named after our favorite rightwing magazine, is actually a progressive. He suggests that turfed Labour Liberal MLA Dan Blacks is being courted by Brian Mason of the NDP. Apparently they were meeting in the Legislature cloak room exchanging email addresses.

NDP Talking to Dan Backs? Sources at yesterday's Ed Stelmach availability in the Legislature TV Room were surprised to overhear Alberta NDP Leader Brian Mason speaking with Dan Backs about a meeting. Mason delivered his crop of Stelmach criticism, then spotted the ousted Liberal MLA skulking around as things were winding down in the room. Mason was overheard asking Backs if he was busy later. No word on Backs' reply.

I have said that Backs and the NDP were a natural fit.

See

Labour Liberal

Dumb Move

Kevin Taft

Gomperism

Liberals

Unions

Find blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:
Dan Backs, Kevin Taft, Ray Martin, Labour law, Alberta, province, politics, labour, labor, unions, building trades, buildingtradeunions, ATA, NDP, Liberals, minimumwage, firstcontract, arbitration, Labour Relations Board, strikes,

News Briefs

Or is that News Boxers? Anyhoo a few short tid bits.

Ish Theilheimer, no really that is his name, at Straight Goods wishes everyone Seasons Greetings with two posts on one page.

First One; predicting that there will be NO Federal Election in 2007. How brash of him. Being contrarian to all popular pontifications and predigitations of the pundits. Anyways his reasoning is interesting, check it out. I actually think that if it is called it won't be in the spring but the fall. The reason, Quebec provincial election.

Second One; A short precise review of the the past crimes of the RCMP that implicate more than just the Commissioner. They are rotten to the core as are their current political masters.

Straight Goods is not impressed by the un-truth-telling and subsequent resignation-when-exposed of RCMP Commissioner Guiliano Zaccardelli. Although it is believable that he was kept in the dark of some of his force's errors and wrongdoings, it is unlikely he was completely ignorant of everything going on. And if he was, that represents gross incompetence. (This could be called the Paul Martin dilemma. Not knowing is as bad as knowing.) The horrific Arar affair is one of many recent stains on the RCMP including:

Zaccardelli wrote a letter during the recent federal election campaign that announced an investigation into former finance minister Ralph Goodale's handling of the income trust affair. There have been no charges since or indications of wrongdoing. Gooddale was eliminated from seeking the leadership after that;

the March 1999 raid by the RCMP in which officers served a search warrant on then BC premier Glen Clark and tipped off TV local reporters. Clark lost his government after that, over what turned out to be a $12,000 backyard deck;

the RCMP received approximately $3 million in cash handed out by Liberal-friendly firms during the Adscam scandal;

politically motivated actions in support of Jean Chrétien including raids on enemies of the Prime Minister's and aggressively pepper-sprayed peaceful demonstrators during the 1997 APEC meeting;

embarrassing former prime minister Brian Mulroney over the Airbus affair and costing taxpayers more than a million dollars to cover lawsuits;

inadequate disclosure about why four members were murdered by a madman in Mayerthorpe, Alta., or the deaths of the two officers in Spiritwood, Sask., this year.

Meanwhile, the Harpocrites continually invoke a Bush-style law 'n' order campaign, including a proposal to let the police stack the judiciary. With police like this, who needs criminals?

We now return to regular programming.

See

RCMP

Election




Find blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:
election, RCMP, StraightGoods, 2007,