'Our house is on fire': Suburban women lead charge vs. Trump


By CLAIRE GALOFARO  

TROY, Mich. (AP) — She walks with the determination of a person who believes the very fate of democracy might depend on the next door she knocks on, head down, shoulders forward. She wears nothing fussy, the battle fatigues of her troupe: yoga pants and sneakers. She left her Lincoln Aviator idling in the driveway, the driver door open -- if this house wasn’t the one to save the nation, she can move quickly to the next.

For most of her life, until 2016, Lori Goldman had been politically apathetic. Had you offered her $1 million, she says, she could not have described the branches of government in any depth. She voted, sometimes.

Now every moment she spends not trying to rid America of President Donald Trump feels like wasted time.

“We take nothing for granted,” she tells her canvassing partner. “They say Joe Biden is ahead. Nope. We work like Biden is behind 20 points in every state.”

Lori Goldman, talks with a voter while canvassing in Troy, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Goldman spends every day door knocking for Democrats in Oakland County, Michigan, an affluent Detroit suburb. She feels responsible for the country’s future: Trump won Michigan in 2016 by 10,700 votes and that helped usher him into the White House. Goldman believes people like her -- suburban white women -- could deliver the country from another four years of chaos.

For many of those women, the past four years have meant frustration, anger and activism — a political awakening that powered women’s marches, the #MeToo movement and the victories of record numbers of female candidates in 2018. That energy has helped create the widest gender gap — the political divide between men and women — in recent history. And it has started to show up in early voting as women are casting their ballots earlier than men. In Michigan, women have cast nearly 56% of the early vote so far, and 68% of those were Democrats, according to the voting data firm L2.

“I hate the saying, 'when they go low, we go high.' That’s loser talk. You can be right all day, but if you’re not winning, what’s the point?”
LORI GOLDMAN

That could mean trouble for Trump, not just in Oakland County but also in suburban battlegrounds outside Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Phoenix.

Trump has tried to appeal to “the suburban housewives of America,” as he called them. Embracing fear and deploying dog whistles, he has argued that Black Lives Matter protesters will bring crime, low-income housing will ruin property values, suburbs will be abolished. Campaigning in Pennsylvania last week, he begged: “Suburban women, will you please like me?”

There’s no sign all this is working. Some recent polls show Biden winning support from about 60% of suburban women. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won 52%, according to an estimate by the Pew Research Center.


Talk to women across suburban Michigan, and you’ll find ample confirmation: the lifelong Republican who says her party has been commandeered by cowards. The Black executive who fears for the safety of her sons. The Democrat who voted for Trump in 2016 but now describes him as “a terrible person.”

Together, they create a powerful political force.

Goldman started her group, Fems for Dems, in early 2016 by sending an email to a few hundred friends that said she planned to help elect the first female president and asked if they’d like to join her. Four years later, their ranks have swelled to nearly 9,000.

There is one thing Goldman gives Trump credit for. He stormed into the White House on pure guts and bombast, unwilling to acknowledge failure, averse to saying sorry. Those are not natural traits for most women who’ve absorbed societal expectations to please and be polite, she says. But she dug deep within herself to find some hint of them.

Lori Goldman poses for a portrait next to campaign signs outside her home in Bloomfield Village, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

A married real estate agent with 12-year-old triplets and a 23-year-old daughter, she became simultaneously the stereotype of a suburban woman and its antithesis: She lives in a 6,000-square-foot home with seven bathrooms, and drinks Aperol spritzers. She also peppers almost every sentence with curse words and no longer gives one damn what people think.

“I hate the saying, ‘When they go low, we go high.’ That’s loser talk,” she says. “You can be right all day, but if you’re not winning, what’s the point?”

And it’s worked: She described her coalition to a newspaper once as “a bunch of dumpy, middle-aged housewives,” and a few got mad at her, but far more joined.

But she is terrified that the constant cycle of crises has left many women exhausted and that could stall this leftward lurch. The nation is reeling from a pandemic and protests, the death of a revered Supreme Court justice, the hospitalization of the president, a foiled plot to kidnap Michigan’s governor.

“Our house is on fire,” Goldman says, and so she steers her SUV to the next door on the cul de sac.
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Oakland County stretches from the edge of Detroit more than 30 miles, through moneyed subdivisions, quaint small towns and swanky shopping districts, into rural stretches with dirt roads and horse pastures. Goldman has covered nearly every inch of it.

Although Clinton won here in 2016, she won fewer votes than Barack Obama four years earlier, while the third-party vote soared. If Clinton had matched Obama’s total, Oakland County alone might have cut Trump’s margin of victory in Michigan by more than half.

But in 2018, some political scientists described it as the epicenter of a major political shift as women turned on Republicans.

“Women are pragmatic voters,” said Michigan’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer. “We care about our kids. We care about our parents. We care about economic security. And so candidates who stand up for those values and show that they can be good, decent human beings is something I know resonates. And I think this moment, with this White House, that is more acute than ever.”

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer campaigns with Dan O'Neil, a Democratic candidate for the Michigan House in Traverse City, Mich., Oct. 9, 2020. (AP Photo/John Flesher)

Whitmer nearly doubled Clinton’s margin in Oakland County in 2018. That same year, Democrat Elissa Slotkin flipped a congressional seat that was under Republican control for almost 20 years.

Some of Slotkin’s strongest supporters were Republican women.

Nancy Strole, a longtime elected township clerk in the rural northern part of the county, had not been able to bring herself to vote for Trump. She considers herself an “old-fashioned kind of Republican.” She hasn’t changed, she said — her party was “hijacked.”

“It’s not just Trump,” she said. “It wouldn’t happen unless there are others who acquiesced and were willing to go along with it either by their silence, by their lack of will, by their lack of courage.”

When Trump began his presidency by undermining international alliances and routinely denigrating people, she grew frustrated that Republicans did nothing about it.

Strole said she called her congressman, Mike Bishop, and never heard back. Meanwhile, Slotkin, a former CIA analyst, announced her bid against Bishop. Her reason for running jibed with Strole’s growing consternation: She had watched Bishop stand by at the White House, smiling, as Republicans worked to gut the Affordable Care Act.

Nancy Strole poses for a portrait in Springfield Township, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

In a lifetime as a Republican, Strole had never volunteered for a congressional campaign. But she knocked on 1,000 doors for Slotkin.

Andrea Moore, by contrast, was raised in a Democratic family. But she voted for Trump because she was fed up with career politicians who seemed interested only in money and power.

“He was an unknown quantity, but now we know,” said Moore, 45, who lives in a suburban community in Wayne County.

She can’t remember the precise moment she decided she’d made a mistake. It felt like a toxic relationship: You can make excuses for a while, but eventually disgust settles in.

“A million little things,” she said — the rapid-fire attacks on people, divisiveness, fear mongering. “They just kind of piled up.”

She can’t understand how anyone could support Trump after his response to his own bout with COVID-19 — how he flouted masks and held rallies, downplayed the threat, failed to acknowledge that he had access to treatments that others don’t, she said. All this when more than 219,000 Americans have died.

Moore, a stay-at-home mom who home-schools her 9-year-old son, doesn’t love Biden. But if the choice is between Trump and anyone else, she said, anyone else will do. She hopes the administration will be driven by Kamala Harris — a Black woman, the child of immigrants, young, sharp.

“It’s been an old white guy’s game for way too long,” Moore said.

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President Donald Trump arrives for a campaign rally at MBS International Airport, Sept. 10, 2020 in Freeland, Mich. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event with steelworkers in the backyard of a home in Detroit, Sept. 9, 2020. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)


Trump’s pitch to try to reclaim suburban female voters relies on an airbrushed version of America’s past. He has warned that “Biden will destroy your neighborhood and your American dream.” He revoked an Obama-era housing initiative meant to curtail racial segregation, claiming that property values would diminish, crime would rise and suburbs would “go to hell.”

“I think if this were 1950, his message would be perfect,” said Karyn Lacy, a sociologist at the University of Michigan. “The problem is it’s not 1950.”

Trump’s description of the suburbs seems to Alison Jones like nostalgia for “a `Leave it to Beaver’ time” when people who look like her could not have lived in her subdivision, where no house costs less than $1 million.

Now when Jones, a Black woman, sees Trump lawn signs, she wonders: Do her neighbors really want her here?

“I think 2020 has opened the wounds, pulled back the curtain so we can see what’s really here.”
ALISON JONES

Suburbs like this were once exclusively white by design: The federal government long underwrote segregationist policies that kept Black families out. Even now, Oakland County remains very white, but not as white as it once was. In 1990, the county was 88% white. By 2019, that dropped to 71.5%.

Jones watched as Trump stood on a debate stage and declined to condemn white supremacy, telling a hate group to “stand back and stand by.” She was a child in the South in the 1960s, when schools were integrating, and the message felt very familiar: It’s us against them.

She fears for her two sons, maybe even more in this predominantly white community than she would in a city, she said. In 2018, a Black 14-year-old boy got lost not far from where she lives and knocked on a door to ask for directions. The white homeowner shot at him.

Alison Jones poses for a portrait outside her home in Rochester, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Jones believes the United States has reached a critical point. Police killings have exposed systemic racism, COVID-19 has disproportionally killed Black people, and they have borne the brunt of the economic fallout, too. “I think 2020 has opened the wounds, pulled back the curtain so we can see what’s really here.”

An executive at a Fortune 500 company, Jones moved here for the same reason as everybody else: good schools, secure property values, safety.

And like Jones, many women here work outside the home. Households aren’t all as they were depicted when Beaver and Wally lived in the fictional town of Mayfield.

Linda Northcraft moved to Oakland County in 1997 for a job as a rector of an Episcopal church, and bought a home with her partner, Ellen Ehrlich.

Ellen Ehrlich and Linda Northcraft pose for a portrait in Southfield, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Some in the congregation left. “Gay priest splits parish,” the headline read. Skinheads protested in the parking lot. It was devastating, and some from their old church suggested maybe they should move back to Baltimore.

But they stayed, times changed, and they got married. Ehrlich said “my wife” recently to a stranger and reported back to Northcraft: “They didn’t even blink an eye,” she said. “It’s become normal.”

They became active in Democratic politics when Whitmer was running for governor. Before dinner, they pray for people sick from COVID-19, for Biden and Harris and, until recently, for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

Ehrlich had been in a “mini state of depression.” She’s an extrovert and the shutdown to curtail the spread of the coronavirus had left her demoralized. But Ginsburg’s death energized her. Without even speaking of it, they both understood the stakes: A stronger conservative majority on the Supreme Court could undo years of expanding protections for civil rights — including their own right to be married.

They sat down the next morning and made campaign donations to every Democrat they could think of.

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Lori Goldman poses for a portrait in Bloomfield Village, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Lori Goldman doesn’t enjoy knocking on strangers’ doors, asking them to vote for Democrats.

She’s hungry because she often doesn’t take the time to eat. Her knee aches from a replacement surgery six months ago. Often the houses have Trump flags hanging from the porch rails.

“But this is war,” she says, and she considers herself a street fighter.

People look at her and make assumptions, she said: a $2 million house, fancy car, American Express black card that she always loses because she keeps it in her bra. But she grew up in a steel town not far away, one of six kids raised by a single mother, poor, dependent on government cheese.

Most of her family and childhood friends are Trump supporters, so she knows there are many whose minds she won’t change.

Like Ally Scully, 27, who hesitantly voted for him in 2016. She believes in traditional small-government Republican ideals like tax cuts and supporting small business. She prayed over her decision and walked into the booth still unsure. Now she thinks he earned her vote again.

“I’m surprised to be saying that because I didn’t think he would,” she said. “I think it’s just his willingness to go out on a limb, even if it was unpopular, that boldness has been remarkable.”

Ally Scully poses for a portrait outside her apartment building in Rochester, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

She believes he’s empowered women in his administration — including his own daughter — and thinks claims of his racism and sexism are overblown by the media. Scully, who now leads the county’s young Republican club, acknowledges that many women have fled the GOP under Trump. But she also believes another, quieter contingent is going the other way.

Goldman worries that she’s right.

But then again, some things have happened to spur more women to battle Trump.

Earlier this month, her phone started ringing one morning with call after call from women asking to knock on doors with her. The catalyst: Six men were charged with conspiring to kidnap Gov. Whitmer because of her “uncontrolled power.”

Whitmer has been a persistent target of right-wing vitriol since she implemented a strict lockdown to try to contain the coronavirus. Thousands of men stormed into the Capitol with guns. Trump egged them on: “Liberate Michigan,” he tweeted, dismissing Whitmer as “the woman from Michigan.”

Whitmer felt it was her duty to publicly blame Trump. Most women, she said, have been on the receiving end of belittling comments.

“I’m at a point in my life where I’m going to take it on every time,” she said. “There’s no room for it. I don’t have time to waste. I have a job to do.”

Women approached her at events to thank her, she said. Some said they were Republicans, tired of the divisiveness and determined to make a change.

Lori Goldman walks between houses as she canvasses in Troy, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Goldman heard the same thing. “It’s because she’s a woman who dared to speak up and so now a bunch of men are going to teach her a lesson,” she said. “This is the violent version of mansplaining, and it’s happened since Adam and Eve.”

So Goldman conjures her Trumpian bluster. Sometimes she stands up in the middle of Starbucks and bellows, “Who here can’t take it anymore? Who wants this guy out of office?”

Some fraction of the room will be furious, but that’s OK with her, because some fraction will ask how they can help. Fems for Dems swells.

Her group has about 8,900 members. But that’s not what Trump would say, so it’s not what she does, either.

“Over 9,000,” she says. “And growing.”

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Associated Press journalists David Eggert, Hannah Fingerhut, Emily Swanson and Angeliki Kastanis contributed to this report.

AP-NORC/SAP poll: 

1 in 4 US workers have weighed quitting

By ALEXANDRA OLSON

FILE - In this Aug. 4, 2020 file photo, a staffer wears a mask while taking orders at a small restaurant in Grand Lake, Colo., amid the coronavirus pandemic. The coronavirus pandemic has put millions of Americans out of work. But many of those still working are fearful, distressed and stretched thin, according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)

New York (AP) — The coronavirus pandemic has put millions of Americans out of work. But many of those still working are fearful, distressed and stretched thin.

A quarter of U.S. workers say they have even considered quitting their jobs as worries related to the pandemic weigh on them, according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research in collaboration with the software company SAP. A fifth say they have taken leave.

About 7 in 10 workers cited juggling their jobs and other responsibilities as a source of stress. Fears of contracting the virus also was a top concern for those working outside the home.

The good news is that employers are responding. The poll finds 57% of workers saying their employer is doing “about the right amount” in responding to the pandemic; 24% say they are “going above and beyond.” Just 18% say their employer is “falling short.”

That satisfaction seems largely related to physical protections from the virus, which overwhelming majorities of workers considered very important. Still, at least half also say it is very important for their employers to expand sick leave, provide flexibility for caregivers and support mental health, and workers report less satisfaction with efforts in these areas.

Lower income workers were especially likely to have considered quitting — 39% of workers in households earning less than $30,000 annually versus just 23% in higher income households.

John Roman, a senior fellow at NORC at the University of Chicago, said those findings likely reflect fears of exposure of the virus among those who can’t work from home. Hourly wage workers are also less likely to feel attachment to a job, making them more likely to search for safer work, he said.

“This is perhaps the most surprising finding,” Roman said. “The people who can least afford to lose their jobs are leaving jobs in higher numbers. But it fits with the story that they feel unsafe health-wise.”

While 65% of remote workers say their employers are doing a good job protecting their health, just 50% of those working outside the home say that.

The pandemic is weighing heavily on women and people of color, who are most likely to work in essential jobs they can’t do remotely.

Fifty percent of women call the pandemic a major source of stress in their lives, compared to 36% of men. Sixty-two percent of Black workers and 47% of Hispanic workers say it is, compared to 39% of white workers.

FILE - In this July 2, 2020 file photo, a service technician wears a protective suit while using an electrostatic gun to clean a surface area during the coronavirus pandemic in Tyler, Texas. The coronavirus pandemic has put millions of Americans out of work. But many of those still working are fearful, distressed and stretched thin, according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (Sarah A. Miller/Tyler Morning Telegraph via AP, File)

Jamelia Fairley, a single mother who works at a McDonald’s in Florida, said managers initially told her to make masks out of coffee filters and hairnets. Although she now gets protective gear, she said workers often have to serve customers who refuse to wear masks.

“I feel like they should provide us with better protection by having the masks be mandatory, not just for us but for customers,” said Fairley, who has seen her weekly hours cut nearly in half and has joined a strike to support raising Florida’s minimum wage to $15 an hour.

Federal labor figures point to a trend of working-age women, particularly Black and Hispanic women, increasingly dropping out of the labor force amid a child care crisis caused by school and daycare closures.

Many top companies have responded with an array of programs, from increased leave to stipends for child care or tutors, but those benefits are not reaching the vast majority of America’s workers.

Only about 1 in 10 say their employers are providing child care facilities, stipends or tutoring services. Only 26% say employers are providing extended family leave.

Nearly 7 in 10 workers consider flexibility for caregivers very important. Fewer than half — 44% — said their employers were doing a good job of that, though just 18% rated employers poorly; another 37% called the response neither good nor bad.

Sarah Blas, a single mother of six in New York, said she has dropped a third of her projects at a non-profit since her children started going to school remotely because some of them have severe asthma.

“It’s soul crushing,” said Blas, though she is grateful that her employer has allowed her to scale back. “There’s even more work to do now, and I literally have to say no because I’m home-schooling.”

The poll finds 28% of workers report working fewer hours since the pandemic hit, which could be because they are juggling responsibilities or because employers have cut back their hours. Among Black workers, the number rises to 38%.

Jeff Huffman, who works as a water infrastructure inspector in Ohio, said his company cut all his overtime hours because they have stopped sending workers out to cut water from households behind on their bills. That has left him struggling to pay child support and worried about giving a proper Christmas to his school-age sons, who live with him every other weekend.

Huffman, who has asthma and worried about virus exposure, said he has applied for other jobs “out of anxiety and stress.” Huffman said he is disappointed that the company has failed to reach out to give “a little gratitude for the hard work we are doing under all this stress.”

“They really just haven’t check in to see how we are doing. I just feel like like it’s all about money,” Huffman said.

The poll shows pandemic-related support varies by company size. Workers at companies with fewer than 100 employees were less likely than those at larger companies to praise how their employers have handled many responsibilities during the pandemic.

Juan Mercado, truck driver for a company that employs more than 1,000 people, said his employer has offered counselling, protective equipment, expanded sick leave and paid time off to care for sick relatives.

“That gave us the confidence to continue working because otherwise, I would probably say I don’t want to go,” said Mercado, 67, of Corpus Christie, Texas.

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The AP-NORC survey of 1,015 full- and part-time employees was conducted Sept. 11-16 with funding from SAP. It uses a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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Online:

AP-NORC Center: http://www.apnorc.org.

Evo Morales Was the Americas’ Greatest President
BY OLIVIA ARIGHO-STILES

On the day of Bolivia's presidential election, we look at the legacy of Evo Morales — who won power in South America's poorest country, tripled its GDP, and lifted millions out of extreme poverty.

Evo Morales on January 11, 2015 in Bolivia. (Dean Mouhtaropoulos / Getty Images)

In October 2003, Bolivia was in the grips of revolutionary insurrection. Residents in El Alto, the neighboring city of La Paz, were blocking the supply of fuel to the capital in protest at a deal to sell off Bolivian gas to Chile on unfavorable terms. To quash the protest, the government ordered the military to fire on the unarmed civilians, killing dozens.

This was the peak of the Bolivian gas war, a spate of struggles over popular control of natural resources that forced the resignation of neoliberal president Gonzalo “Goni” Sánchez de Lozada. These uprisings between 2000 and 2004 saw the mobilization of peasants, miners, and indigenous groups against the privatization of the country’s resources and other neoliberal policies. This groundswell also led to the election of ex-president Evo Morales and the social movement-backed party Movement Toward Socialismo (MAS) in 2005.

MAS had emerged during the mid-nineties as the organized political wing of CSUTCB, the landworkers’ union, and played a key role in the uprisings of the early 2000s. Its core bases of support have historically been with Bolivia’s peasantry and coca growers, and is conditionally supported by the COB, the powerful miner-led trade union federation which led the struggle for democracy during the dictatorships of the seventies and eighties. And during the mid-2000s “Pink Tide,” when left-socialist governments swept to power across the continent, MAS became internationally known for their ambitious attempts at implementing socialist reforms.

But fifteen years later, with Morales ousted in a right-wing coup, Bolivia is once again paralyzed by mass social unrest. This current juncture therefore offers a poignant moment for the Left to reflect on the challenges, achievements, and limitations of thirteen years of socialist government in Bolivia.
Taking Power

When Morales assumed office in January 2006, he was the first indigenous president of Bolivia — a country historically structured around racism. The son of impoverished llama herders in Oruru, Morales cut his teeth in the semitropical Chapare region as a coca grower, quickly rising through the ranks of the powerful coca growers’ union federation to become a nationally prominent figure.

Under his presidency, MAS won successive elections with unprecedented margins in 2009 and 2014, running on an economic agenda of modest wealth redistribution and partial hydrocarbon nationalization coupled with an evocative discourse of decolonization.

This mattered intensely in a country that has thirty-six recognized indigenous languages, and 42 percent of the population self-identifying as indigenous in the latest census. “For the first time in Bolivian history,” Morales declared at his 2006 inauguration ceremony in the symbolic location of Tiwanaku, the ancient Aymara ruins outside La Paz, “Aymaras, Quechuas, and Mojeños, we are presidents.” For many, his election was nothing less than the culmination of five hundred years of anti-colonial resistance in the Americas.


In 2010, Bolivia was reconfigured by the government as a plurinational state, giving political autonomy to indigenous nations. The 2010 Law of Mother Earth enshrined the rights of nature in the Constitution. “Either capitalism dies or else planet Earth dies,” he exclaimed at the World People’s Conference on Climate Change and the Rights of Mother Earth in 2010. Morales also broke with US-backed policies toward coca, replacing the militarized eradication of coca crops with a successful community-based coca control program.

The newfound visibility and prominence of indigenous peoples in Bolivia have been the undisputed success of MAS in power. They are now represented as political actors at the state level and across society. For the first time, cholitas — women who wear urban-indigenous dress — can now be seen presenting the news or taking up various public office roles.

In economic terms, the government — buoyed by the commodity boom of the 2000s — embarked on ambitious social spending programs while presiding over strong economic growth in Latin America’s poorest country. As a result of their actions, GDP tripled while income inequality went down by two-thirds and extreme poverty dropped from 38 percent to 17 percent.

Yet tensions and contradictions soon became apparent as Morales’s indigenous-liberationist agenda was accompanied by an economic model of resource extraction and development. In 2011, this brought Morales into open conflict with a large sector of peasant and indigenous communities when the government attempted to build a highway through the protected Isiboro Sécure Indigenous Territory and National Park (TIPNIS) in order to connect Villa Tunari in Cochabamba with San Ignacio de Moxos in Beni. Ostensibly, the hope was that this would link the Amazonian and Andean regions and bring crucial infrastructure and access to services to the area’s communities. Coca growers in the Chapare region — a bastion of MAS support — especially stood to benefit from access to the road.

The plans sparked protests from indigenous communities living in the area, who alongside NGOs and environmental groups, feared that the development would invite environmental degradation and encroachment on their lands. When communities marched to defend their territorial autonomy and right to prior consultation, the march was repressed by police and at least seventy people were wounded; Morales later conceded that the plans were a “mistake.”

Morales also struggled to curtail the power of big agribusiness. The tropical lowland departments of Santa Cruz, Pando, Beni, and Tarija, known as the “media luna” region, have historically been the nexus of ruling-class antagonism to Morales and MAS. Elites in the east of the country have always rejected Morales’s syndicalist, anti-neoliberal, and indigenous-oriented politics, calling for a civic strike in 2008. This came alongside a wave of violence from local fascist groups and intimidation of peasant activists orchestrated by authorities in the area of Pando.

However, MAS politicians began to see advantages in a pragmatic rapprochement with eastern agricultural capitalists. Santa Cruz is dominated by major latifundistas, with around five million hectares of the area’s most fertile agricultural land in the hands of large landowners, and much of this land accumulated during Bolivia’s twentieth-century dictatorships. In 2013, Morales announced a plan to triple Bolivia’s farmland to thirteen million hectares by 2025. The MAS mayor of Beni tabled a law that would have opened large swathes of lowland territory to ranching, thereby contributing to environmental degradation. The national legislature also approved laws that expanded biofuel production and increased beef exports to China, both of which entailed vast deforestation.
The Coup

So, what finally went wrong for Morales and MAS? By 2019, it was clear his position was becoming perilous. The devastating fires in Chiquitania garnered widespread criticism and allowed the Santa Cruz–based right to go on the political offensive. His decision to run for a fourth term also proved controversial, since the 2009 Bolivian Constitution limited presidential terms to only two terms, and Morales had only been able to serve for three because his first election in 2006 preceded this constitutional change.

In February 2016, Morales held a plebiscite to allow him to run for a fourth term. It resulted in a narrow “no” vote, but in 2017 the constitutional court, packed with MAS adherents, ruled that preventing him from standing for reelection would violate his human rights. This generated significant discontent from many Bolivians, particularly among urban middle classes who saw it as a betrayal of representative democracy.

After the first round of voting in the October 2019 elections, it was these same urban middle classes who marched in the cities to denounce “fraud” and demand the resignation of the so-called dictator Morales. An army of pititas — comprising anti-MAS youth and the middle classes — erected blockades in the street, while a wave of right-wing violence saw the torching of electoral buildings and the houses of prominent MAS politicians. Ultra-right figures rapidly seized the initiative, notably Luis Fernando Camacho, a wealthy businessman from Santa Cruz with ties to fascist youth group Union Juvenil Cruceñista.


The cry of fraud was spurred on by the premature release of a report by the US-dominated Organization of American States (OAS), which suggested that there had been “manipulation” in the vote count. No firm evidence was offered by the OAS, and its claims have since been debunked by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), an American research organization.

On November 10, in the face of insurmountable protest and after the “suggestion” by the military that he resign, Morales was forced to flee to Mexico. In the power vacuum, the Senate’s second vice president Jeanine Áñez became interim president, representing a right-wing party that had received just 4 percent of the vote. A brutal clampdown against anti-coup protesters swiftly followed: in scenes reminiscent of 2003, nine people were shot dead by state forces during a peaceful blockade at the Senkata gas plant in El Alto on November 19. Eight coca growers were massacred by state security forces as they protested against the new government in Sacaba, Cochabamba. According to research by the anthropologist Carwil Bjork-James, the Bolivian military killed more protesters and bystanders in this period than in the previous decade.

The coup was promptly celebrated by the Trump administration. Relations between the United States and Bolivia had been factious ever since Morales expelled the United States Agency for International Development Aid (USAID) from the country in 2013 over its interference in state affairs. Some have additionally speculated that Bolivia’s lithium deposits — the largest in the world — may have motivated foreign interest in destabilizing the government.

The coup also saw old racial fears of a “malón” — an attack by Indians — resurface. Well-heeled paceños formed makeshift barricades in the streets in fear of reprisals by the indigenous peoples of neighboring El Alto after Morales’s resignation. A darker, fascistic current emerged in these protests; after Morales was gone, “Indians out of UMSA” could be seen daubed on the walls of UMSA, La Paz’s public university. Protesters were filmed burning the wiphala, the flag representing Andean indigenous peoples. As the Aymara writer Jesus Oscuri observed at the time, “it seemed as if the Indian was expelled from power.”

The regime went on to bring charges against its opponents — journalists, trade unionists, and students, among many others — accusing them of sedition and terrorism. In January 2020, Patricia Hermosa, who legally represented Morales, was detained and imprisoned as she tried to file Morales’s paperwork to register as a congressional candidate while she was pregnant. She lost her baby in prison. Corruption and nepotism were also quick to rear its head. In May, health minister Marcelo Navajas was arrested after a multimillion-dollar fraud case over ventilators being imported from Spain to deal with the coronavirus pandemic when Bolivia’s beleaguered health system needed them urgently.
Where Next?

Elections were initially scheduled for May but were postponed to this weekend by the Electoral Tribunal on the grounds of the COVID-19 pandemic. Polls have consistently predicted a victory for MAS, which is running Luis Arce Catacora — the ex-economy minister who presided over the impressive economic growth of the 2000s — as their candidate.

Elections may be one way to unite a dangerously fractured Bolivia. The country has been paralyzed by general strikes and blockades, as peasants, miners, and indigenous groups mobilized to demand that elections are held and Áñez resigns. Just as in the 2000s, MAS is not leading these uprisings but is one of many political actors in the fray.

As the left base in Bolivia and internationally reflects on MAS’s tenure, it is important to avoid Manichean characterizations of Morales. He presided over the progressive economic transformation of the country, helping the poorest and reasserting indigenous power. However, Morales had alienated many of his key supporters by the time he was forced to resign by the military. The MAS bureaucracy had begun to stifle the autonomy of the social movements which initially formed its base. Even Juan Huarachi, ex-miner, MAS ally, and executive secretary of the COB, asked Morales to resign by the very end.

Yet it is true that Morales was confronted with emboldened right-wing urban elites who had the support of the police and acquired critical mass in the streets. It is obvious that Evo was an exceptional leader of a popular party, elected four times in a political culture suspicious of presidential reelection. But he also stretched the limits of the permissible. In the end, this only benefited the likes of Áñez and her ilk, the enemies of social progress who want what veteran journalist Fernando Molina has called the “Bolsonarization” of Bolivia.

Morales aide claims victory in Bolivia’s presidential vote
By CARLOS VALDEZ and JOSHUA GOODMAN

1 of 13

Luis Arce, center, Bolivian presidential candidate for the Movement Towards Socialism Party, MAS, and running mate David Choquehuanca, second right, celebrate during a press conference where they claim victory after general elections in La Paz, Bolivia, Monday, Oct. 19, 2020. (AP Photo/Juan Karita)

LA PAZ, Bolivia (AP) — Evo Morales’ party claimed victory in a presidential election that appeared to reject the right-wing policies of the interim government that took power in Bolivia after the leftist leader resigned and fled the country a year ago.

Officials released no formal, comprehensive quick count of results from Sunday’s vote, but two independent surveys of selected polling places showed Morales’ handpicked successor, Luis Arce, with a lead of roughly 20 percentage points over his closest rival — far more than needed to avoid a runoff.

“We still have no official count, but according to the data we have, Mr. Arce (and his running mate) have won the election,” interim President Jeanine Áñez — an archrival of Morales — said on Twitter. “I congratulate the winners and I ask them to govern with Bolivia and democracy in mind.”

Arce, meanwhile, appealed for calm in the bitterly divided nation saying he would seek to form a government of national unity under his Movement Toward Socialism party.

“I think the Bolivian people want to retake the path we were on,” Arce declared around midnight surrounded by a small group of supporters, some of them in traditional Andean dress in honor of the country’s Indigenous roots.

Pre-election polls had showed Arce ahead but lacking enough votes to avoid a November runoff, likely against centrist former President Carlos Mesa. To win in the first round, a candidate needs more than 50% of the vote, or 40% with a lead of at least 10 percentage points over the second-place candidate.

The independent counts showed Arce with a little over 50% of the vote and a roughly 20 point advantage over Mesa.

Even so, early returns — with 16% counted — from the formal official count had Mesa with a 44% to 35% lead over Arce on Monday. Those votes appeared to be largely from urban areas rather than the rural heartlands that have been the base of Morales’ support.

Arce, who oversaw a surge in growth and a sharp reduction in poverty as Morales’ economy minister for more than a decade, will face an uphill battle trying to reignite that growth.

The boom in prices for Bolivia’s mineral exports that helped feed that progress has faded, and the new coronavirus has hit the impoverished, landlocked Bolivia harder than almost any other country on a per capita basis. Nearly 8,400 of its 11.6 million people have died of COVID-19.

Arce also faces the challenge of emerging from the long shadow of his former boss, who remains polarizing but whose support enabled the low-key, UK-educated economist to mount a strong campaign.

Áñez.s government tried to overturn many of Morales’ policies and wrench the country away from its leftist alliances. Newly installed electoral authorities barred Morales from running in Sunday’s election, even for a seat in congress, and he faces prosecution on what are seen as trumped-up charges of terrorism if he returns home.

Few expect the sometimes-irascible politician to sit by idly in a future Arce government.

Bolivia, once one of the most politically volatile countries in Latin America, experienced a rare period of stability for 14 years under Morales, the country’s first Indigenous president.

A boyhood llama herder who became prominent leading a coca grower’s union, Morales had been immensely popular while overseeing an export-led economic surge. But support was eroding due to his reluctance to leave power, increasing authoritarian impulses and a series of corruption scandals.

He shrugged aside a public vote that had set term limits, and competed in the October 2019 presidential vote, which he claimed to have narrowly won outright. But a lengthy pause in reporting results fed suspicions of fraud and nationwide protests followed, leading to the deaths of at least 36 people.

When police and military leaders suggested he leave, Morales resigned and fled the country, along with several key aides. Morales called his ouster a coup.

Hoping to avoid similar confusion this time, electoral authorities said they would not release a quick count of results — merely the slow-moving official tally that they said could take five days.

All seats in the 136-member Legislative Assembly also were also being contested, with results expected to echo the presidential race.

“Bolivia’s new executive and legislative leaders will face daunting challenges in a polarized country, ravaged by COVID-19, and hampered by endemically weak institutions,” said the Washington Office on Latin America, a Washington-based human rights advocacy organization.

Morales led Bolivia from 2006 until 2019 and was the last survivor of the so-called “pink wave” of leftist leaders that swept into power across South America, including Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez.

Although outrage with corruption fueled a resurgence in right-wing politics, notably in Brazil, Arce’s victory is bound to reenergize the left, whose anthem of economic justice has broad appeal in a region where poverty is expected to surge to 37% this year, according to the United Nations.

Arce may have benefited from overreach and errors by Morales’ enemies. Áñez, a conservative senator, proclaimed herself interim president amid last year’s tumult and was accepted by the courts. Her administration, despite lacking a majority in congress, set about trying to prosecute Morales and key aides while undoing his policies, prompting more unrest and polarization.

“A lot of people said if this is the alternative being offered, I prefer to go back to the way things were,” said Andres Gomez, a political scientist based in La Paz.

Áñez dropped out at as a candidate for Sunday’s presidential election while trailing badly in polls. That boosted Mesa, who governed Bolivia following the resignation in 2003 of former President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada amid widespread protests.

The Trump administration, which celebrated Morales’ departure as a watershed moment for democracy in Latin America, has been more cautious as Morales’ handpicked successor surged in the polls. A senior State Department official this week said the U.S. is ready to work with whomever Bolivians select in a free and fair vote.

___

Goodman reported from Medellin, Colombia. AP writer Paola Flores contributed to this report from La Paz.

Bolivian socialist candidate Arce set to win election outright, exit poll shows

Issued on: 19/10/2020 - 

Text by:FRANCE 24Follow|

Video by: Alexander AUCOTT

Bolivia's socialist candidate Luis Arce looks set to win the country's presidential election without the need for a run-off, an unofficial count indicated on Monday, putting the leftwing party of Evo Morales on the brink of a return to power.

The quick-count from pollster Ciesmori, released by Bolivian TV channel Unitel around midnight on Sunday, showed Arce had 52.4 percent of valid votes, more than 20 percentage points above the second-place centrist rival Carlos Mesa, who had 31.5 percent.

The official count had reached just five percent of votes cast, and exit polls had been delayed hours after polls closed, leaving Bolivians in the dark about the election result. A candidate needs 40 percent of the votes and a 10-point lead to win outright.

"All the data known so far indicate that there has been a victory for the Movement towards Socialism," Morales, who handpicked Arce and has been closely advising the campaign, said in a press conference in Buenos Aires.

Arce, a former economy minister under Morales, sounded confident of victory without explicitly claiming the win at his own press conference shortly after midnight in the Bolivian capital La Paz.

"We are going to work, and we will resume the process of change without hate," Arce told reporters. "We will learn and we will overcome the mistakes we've made (before) as the Movement Toward Socialism party."

Muy agradecidos con el apoyo y confianza del pueblo boliviano. Recuperamos la democracia y retomaremos la estabilidad y la paz social. Unidos, con dignidad y soberanía #VamosASalirAdelante pic.twitter.com/vFO9Mr1o44— Luis Arce Catacora (Lucho Arce) (@LuchoXBolivia) October 19, 2020

"Very grateful for the support and trust of the Bolivian people," Arce posted to Twitter on Monday. "We have recovered democracy and we will regain stability and social peace. United, with dignity and sovereignty."

Conducted amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, Sunday's poll was regarded as a test of democracy in the Andean nation after last year's election was annulled following allegations of vote rigging, which sparked bloody protests and led to Morales quitting after almost 14 years in power.

Jeanine Anez, the conservative interim president who took over in a power vacuum last year, said that it appeared Arce was the election winner and offered her congratulations.

The election outcome, if confirmed, is chastening for the country's conservatives and will likely bolster the image of Morales, the socialist indigenous leader whose shadow still looms large over the country despite him living in exile in Argentina since last year's disputed election.

Morales returns?

Morales was an iconic and long-lasting figure in a wave of leftist presidents in the region over the last two decades, and the Bolivian election is a litmus test of the left's abiding clout in Latin America.

"The vote is set to be the most important since Bolivia returned to democracy in 1982," Carlos Valverde, a political analyst, said earlier in the day.

On Sunday, residents of La Paz, a city starkly divided by class and race, had voted peacefully but faced long lines meant to avoid overcrowding inside voting locations. Many had said they worried the election result could lead to more violence.

"I hope everything turns out peacefully and that the next government can also provide the solutions that all Bolivians are hoping for," said David Villarroel, voting in La Paz.

(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS and AFP)

Bolivians elect new president after year of post-Morales upheaval

Issued on: 16/10/2020 - 

People wear protective masks as they line up to cast their vote at a polling station in La Paz, Bolivia's capital, on October 18, 2020. © David Mercado, REUTERS

Text by:Tom WHEELDON|

Video by:FRANCE 24Follow

Bolivia votes in the first round of presidential elections on Sunday – 12 months after disputed polls sparked mass protests and the downfall of the country’s controversial leftist leader Evo Morales. FRANCE 24 takes a look back at the Latin American country’s year of turbulence.

The frontrunners are centrist ex-president Carlos Mesa and Luis Arce, Morales’ anointed successor and candidate for his left-wing MAS party. Polling data predicts that Arce will come out on top in the October 18 first round – but without the 40 percent vote share and 10 point lead required to avoid a runoff on November 29.

Analysts forecast Mesa triumphing in the second round, propelled over the line by the “anyone but MAS” slogan popular among much of Bolivia’s middle class. The five other candidates, lagging in the polls, are all expected to back Mesa.

“While the margin will be close, we remain of the view that Mesa will take the race to a 29 November runoff, which he would be favoured to win,” Filipe Gruppelli Carvalho, Bolivia analyst at consulting firm Eurasia Group, told Agence France-Presse.

‘Clear manipulation’ of last year’s vote

These presidential elections come one year after Morales claimed a fourth term in October 2019. Fears of a stolen vote emerged when officials suddenly stopped releasing results hours after polls closed. The tally was putting Morales ahead of Mesa, his closest challenger, but well short of the lead he needed to avoid a second round. A day later, the electoral commission abruptly sent out new figures showing Morales just 0.7 points shy of the threshold to win on the first round.

Mesa accused Morales of engaging in “monumental fraud”. Morales accused Mesa of using foreign support to wage a coup d’état. Nationwide protests broke out, with anti-government protesters storming two state-run media outlets, accusing them of being in Morales’ pocket. An audit by the Organisation of American States on November 9 uncovered “clear manipulation” of the count.

Morales resigned the next day, claiming political asylum in Mexico as clashes between his supporters and opponents continued to rage on the streets of the capital La Paz. Now living in Argentina, the former president continues to accuse “putschists” of illegitimately kyboshing his re-election.

The ex-president is no stranger to controversy. In a 2016 plebiscite, Bolivians narrowly rejected a proposed constitutional amendment that would have enabled him to run for a fourth term. The Supreme Court overturned that vote in a fiercely disputed decision, ruling that the constitution violated Morales’ human rights in blocking him from seeking another term. “Morales had firm control over the state’s main institutions, and it was pretty clear that manipulation was going on,” said Colin Harding, director of specialist publication Latinform.

The referendum affair tarnished the considerable international reputation Morales had built since becoming Bolivia’s first indigenous president in 2006. The country’s GDP expanded at more than 4 percent per year during his thirteen-year reign, as the resource-rich nation reaped a global commodity boom.

“Morales really benefitted from beneficial economic circumstances; high commodity prices helped very much,” Harding noted. At the same time, he continued, Maduro’s “economic policies were not nearly as radical as his rhetoric, and he did well to attract a lot of foreign investment”.

‘Anez really didn’t help’

Soon after Morales’ ouster, it was his right-wing opponents who stood accused of an illicit power-grab. Jeanine Anez, a conservative vice-president of the Senate, declared herself acting president on November 13. Anez was fifth in the line of succession, but those above her had stood down – although some Morales loyalists then tried to annul their resignations. She took office despite the lack of parliamentary quorum, caused by MAS parliamentarians’ boycott of the vote to appoint her.

The day after taking office, Anez announced that elections were forthcoming, without specifying a date. She added that Morales would be barred due to his unconstitutional decision to stand for a fourth term. Demonstrations rumbled on over the following weeks, this time as Morales supporters rallied to demand Anez’s resignation. The deadly protests prompted Bolivia’s influential Catholic Church to demand that the two sides meet for negotiations.

In December, Bolivian prosecutors brought charges against the exiled Morales on grounds of “sedition” and “terrorism”, accusing him of ordering his supporters to engage in street violence. Later the same month, Morales’ then host Mexico accused Bolivia of “intimidating” embassy staff working in La Paz after the Mexican government gave diplomatic protection to nine of Morales’ former ministers who faced criminal charges.

Ex-colonial power Spain was caught up in the imbroglio when its diplomats visited the Mexican ambassador’s residence in La Paz, accompanied by masked men. The Bolivian government expelled two Spanish diplomats and the Mexican ambassador after accusing Spain of trying to help the nine ex-ministers flee the country.

Upon taking office in November, Anez said she was uninterested in standing for president in the upcoming elections. In early January, she named a date for the polls: May 3. Later the same month, she reneged on her earlier statement and announced her candidacy. Anez’s communications minister Roxana Lizarraga resigned, saying that she had “lost sight of her objectives” and had “started to fall into the same evils” as her predecessor Morales. Hours later, Anez asked all of her ministers to resign.

“Anez really didn’t help matters,” Harding said. “She was an obscure politician who quickly emerged at the height of government, who found that she rather liked it there and didn’t want to return to obscurity.”

‘Extreme polarisation’

Then the coronavirus struck. Anez imposed a two-week lockdown on March 21 – and announced the postponement of the May elections to September 6. Covid-19 hit Bolivia relatively hard. The countries has recorded more than 8,000 deaths and some 137,000 cases out of a population of 11.6 million people – facing shortages of tests, protective equipment and intensive care beds, with what has been a rickety health system since Morales’ tenure.

Anez announced that she had tested positive along with seven of her ministers in early July. Two weeks later, her government announced a second election delay, this time until October 18. This provoked a further round of protests, with Morales supporters blocking roads across Bolivia. The government said this caused the deaths of at least 30 people by obstructing oxygen supplies to hospitals. Anez failed to improve her popularity ratings in the polls during this period. Consequently, she announced her withdrawal from the presidential race on September 18.

Sunday’s polls will be watched closely for any sign of impropriety. On Friday, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet implored all actors involved in the elections to ensure a fair and peaceful vote – adding that the elections “represent an opportunity to really move forward on social and economic fronts, and to defuse the extreme polarisation that has been plaguing Bolivia over the past few years”.

Thai PM recalls parliament as protesters step up pressure
ANARCHY; LEADERLESS SELF ORGANIZING
Issued on: 19/10/2020 -

A three-fingered salute taken from "The Hunger Games" book and movie series has become a symbol of the Thai protests Mladen ANTONOV AFP

Bangkok (AFP)

Thailand's embattled premier called Monday for a special session of parliament as protesters planned more rallies to demand his resignation, the release of jailed activists, and reforms to the monarchy.

Tens of thousands of mostly young protesters have taken to the streets in the past week in defiance of an emergency decree banning gatherings of more than four people.

Police said around 20,000 people protested across the capital Sunday, although activists and local media estimated much bigger crowds.

As they prepared to rally again Monday, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha said parliament -- currently in recess -- would be recalled to discuss how to reduce tensions.

"We support opening an extraordinary session to solve this conflict," he told reporters, warning protesters not to break the law.

"I request protesters rally peacefully. The government has already compromised to some degree," he said.

The largely leaderless movement is calling for the resignation of Prayut -- a former army chief and mastermind of a 2014 coup -- as well as the re-writing of the military-drafted constitution they say rigged last year's election in his favour.

Most controversially, protesters are also making unprecedented demands to reform the powerful and ultra-wealthy monarchy.

They want the abolition of a draconian defamation law that shields King Maha Vajiralongkorn from criticism, greater transparency of royal finances, and for the monarch to stay out of politics.

The movement appeared to be gaining traction across the country with smaller protests taking place Sunday from Phuket in the south to Khon Kaen in the northeast.

- 'Protect the monarchy' -

It has gained momentum since July, but sharply escalated last week after a group of protesters surrounded a royal motorcade and flashed three-fingered "democracy salutes" -- borrowed from the "Hunger Games" movies -- at Queen Suthida.

Two activists now face charges under a rarely used law banning "violence against the queen" and face a maximum sentence of life in prison if convicted.

Confrontations escalated further on Friday when riot police used water cannon and other strong-arm tactics, provoking widespread outrage.

Prayut warned Monday the government needed to protect the monarchy.

"This is the duty of all Thais," he told reporters.

Apart from arrests by police, the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society said it had flagged more than 325,000 messages on social media platforms that violated the Computer Crimes Act, which critics say is used to muzzle dissent.

Police also warned local media outlets that their coverage of the protests would be examined for possible illegal content.

They have also copied many tactics employed by Hong Kong protesters during months of frequently violent clashes there last year, including using improvised protective clothing in case of confrontations with riot police.

burs-rs/dhc/fox

Young and restless: Hong Kong and Thailand protest parallels

Hong Kong and Thailand have both seen their streets filled with protesters daring to take on an entrenched political elite, and to discuss once-taboo subjects in their push for greater freedoms.

Voranai Vanijaka, a political analyst at Bangkok’s Thammasat University, said tech-savvy youths in both territories have “shared cultural values”.

by AFP, 19 OCTOBER 2020
By Dene-Hern Chen with Jerome Taylor in Hong Kong

This combination of file pictures created on October 19, 2020 shows (top) pro-democracy protesters wearing helmets and holding umbrellas during an anti-government rally in Bangkok on October 18, 2020, and (bottom) protesters wearing helmets and holding umbrellas to shield themselves from tear gas during a protest in Hong Kong on July 27, 2019. Photo: Lillian Suwanrumpha and Philip Fong/AFP.

“(It’s) the love for freedom and the courage to fight for change,” he told AFP.

Here are five similarities.
Taking on powerful targets

Both movements are primarily motivated by inequality and democracy, but in pushing for a greater say in how their fates are forged they are taking on formidable foes resistant to change.

This combination of file pictures created on October 19, 2020 shows (top) pro-democracy protesters holding up flashlights on their phones during an anti-government rally in Bangkok on October 18, 2020, and (bottom) protesters holding up flashlights on their phones during a rally in Hong Kong on October 19, 2019. Photo: Mladen Antonov and Ed Jones/AFP.

For Hong Kong, it is the Chinese Communist Party, which crushes dissent on the mainland and has increased control over the restless semi-autonomous city.

Beijing has rejected calls for greater democracy and police accountability, and has since blanketed the finance hub in a national security law that has, for the meantime, snuffed out mass dissent.

In Thailand, it is the monarchy – backed by the powerful, coup-prone military – that sits at the apex of the political pyramid

.

This combination of file pictures created on October 19, 2020 shows (top) pro-democracy protesters holding up flashlights on their phones during a demonstration in Bangkok on October 15, 2020, and (bottom) people holding up flashlights on their phones during a rally thanking US President Donald Trump for signing legislation requiring an annual review of freedoms in Hong Kong on November 28, 2019. Photo: Jack Taylor and Anthony Wallace/AFP.

For now, it is unclear how the palace will react to the Thai protests, but in previous periods of turbulence it has played a pivotal role in deciding the outcome.
Rule of law or rule by law?

The way authorities use the law have been key catalysts.

The initial spark in Hong Kong was an eventually aborted attempt to allow extraditions to the authoritarian mainland’s party-controlled courts.

The protest movement then morphed into a wider push for universal suffrage and opposition to Beijing’s rule.

This combination of file pictures created on October 19, 2020 shows (top) pro-democracy protesters giving the three-finger salute as they gather for a demonstration in Bangkok on October 15, 2020, and (bottom) demonstrators holding up their hands to symbolise the five demands that protesters are asking for during a march in Hong Kong on September 8, 2019. Photo: Jack Taylor and Vivek Prakash/AFP,

In Thailand, the kingdom’s draconian lese majeste law – which shields the monarchy from criticism – has been a crucial component of calls for reform, as well as prosecutions under broadly-worded sedition and cybercrime laws.

Multiple critics of the Thai monarchy have also disappeared, with Human Rights Watch recording at least nine cases involving activists overseas.

The current round of protests came after activist Wanchalearm Satsaksit was allegedly kidnapped in Cambodia in June. He hasn’t been seen since.
Youth-led

Youngsters are at the heart of calls for reform

.

This combination of file pictures created on October 19, 2020 shows (top) pro-democracy protesters carrying sections of a metal barrier during an anti-government rally in Bangkok on October 18, 2020, and (bottom) protesters carrying sections of a metal barrier during a pro-democracy march in Hong Kong on October 20, 2019. Photo: Jack Taylor and Anthony Wallace/AFP.

Hong Kong’s huge rallies represented a broad swathe of society, from students to lawyers, bus drivers, civil servants and teachers.

But the frontline activists – and those embracing increasingly violent tactics – were overwhelmingly young. Many face prosecution and years in jail.

Some of Hong Kong’s most visible activists, such as Joshua Wong and Agnes Chow, were teenagers when they first got involved in politics.

Thailand’s protest leaders – most of whom have been arrested in the last week – are in their early twenties and are similarly more willing to embrace confrontational tactics than older generations.
Taboos shattered

Taboo topics have been thrust centre stage

.

This combination of file pictures created on October 19, 2020 shows (top) pro-democracy protesters sheltering under umbrellas during an anti-government rally in Bangkok on October 18, 2020, and (bottom) protesters holding up umbrellas during a protest march in Hong Kong on July 1, 2017. Photo: Jack Taylor and Anthony Wallace/AFP.

In Hong Kong, young activists were far more willing to embrace the idea of autonomy and even outright independence from China – a concept that remains a red line for Beijing.

As the protests dragged and authorities refused major concessions, chants and flags declaring “Liberate Hong Kong, revolution of our times” became commonplace.

In Thailand, even talking about the concept of reforming the monarchy is enough to land someone in jail.

But people have begun to lose that fear.

Young activists have given speeches for the lese majeste law to be abolished and called for the king’s huge personal wealth – estimated to be some US$60 billion – to have a clear division of assets between public and personal.
Protest tactics

Thai protesters donned hard hats, goggles, gas masks and umbrellas against water cannon over the weekend in images that could have come straight out of Hong Kong last year.

This combination of file pictures created on October 19, 2020 shows (top) police using water cannons to disperse pro-democracy protesters during an anti-government rally in Bangkok on October 16, 2020, and (bottom) pro-democracy protesters reacting as police fire water cannons outside the government headquarters in Hong Kong on September 15, 2019. Photo: Mladen Antonov and Nicolas Asfouri/AFP.

Young activists in both places have also swapped tactics online and offered messages of support.

Both movements are using encrypted social messaging platforms to mobilise, and have opted for flashmob rallies – especially since authorities arrested key leaders.

Hand symbols have also taken centre stage.

In Hong Kong, a raised palm symbolises the “Five demands, not one less” slogan.

Credit to instagram @hk90s__photolifes

Above: Hong Kong
Below: Thailand

From here: https://t.co/jAgANxItQT pic.twitter.com/2yOwe9bvhO— Grace Tsoi (@gracehw) October 18, 2020

The Thais meanwhile have embraced a three-finger salute from the dystopian movie “The Hunger Games”.

Analyst Voranai said Thai protesters are currently “much less radical than their Hong Kong counterparts”.

Graffiti in support of the #Thailand protests has appeared in Hong Kong. The two resistance movements have been linked under what activists have called the #MilkTeaAlliance. Photo: @studioincendo. pic.twitter.com/ZsVJmANSfu— Hong Kong Free Press HKFP (@hkfp) October 18, 2020


“But at the core, it’s the same: freedom.”

Thai Protests Are Looking More and More like Hong Kong's Democracy Movement

Inspired by peers in Hong Kong, youth activists in Thailand are applying similar tactics to their own movement.

By Heather Chen

PROTESTERS IN BANGKOK ON OCT. 18, 2020. PHOTO: VICE NEWS]

Water cannons, encrypted messaging apps and swarms of students carrying umbrellas and wearing gas masks - this isn't Hong Kong, it's Bangkok.

Young Thai protesters are increasingly mirroring the sophisticated tactics deployed by peers in Hong Kong as they call for democratic reforms and changes to the powerful monarchy.

"This is very much a student-led movement that shares many parallels with the Hong Kong anti-government protests," politics lecturer Roger Huang from Sydney's Macquarie University Huang told VICE News.

"The protestors are mostly students from universities and high schools, online savvy, and much more aware of social justice issues. Although there are opinion-leaders, it is a much more decentralized movement, probably the bravest generation of young activists at least since the turbulent 1970s in Thailand."

World News
Thai Skateboarders Defy Authorities With 'Anti-Dictator' Designs
JAMES BUCHANAN 10.14.20


Thailand is no stranger to large-scale protests, military crackdowns and coups, but the new movement has smashed taboos and flouted legal restrictions against criticizing the monarchy, which many feel has too much of a say in Thai politics. It has also called for the prime minister to resign and demanded a new constitution.

Until recently, protests were held sporadically. That changed last week after several prominent leaders were arrested and police deployed water cannons to crack down on demonstrations in the heart of the city, fuelling even further resentment and leading to now-daily rallies despite a ban on large gatherings in Bangkok. Many protesters express allegiance to the so-called Milk Tea Alliance, an informal online solidarity movement of pro-democracy activists in Thailand, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

World News
Thailand’s Youth Are Protesting Against the Government in a Fight for Their Future
CALEB QUINLEY08.10.20


Here are just a handful of ways the Thai protests are looking more and more like what happened in Hong Kong.

Umbrellas at the ready

Since Friday, Bangkok has transformed into a sea of raincoats and umbrellas as tens of thousands of protesters braved daily rainy weather to demonstrate in multiple locations, including in provinces far from the capital.

For many, photos of umbrella protesters on the streets looked strikingly similar to the beginning of the unrest that was starting to take shape in Hong Kong back in 2014 and resurfaced last year.



NIGHT FALLS AS PROTESTERS GATHER NEXT TO VICTORY MONUMENT IN BANGKOK ON OCT. 18, 2020. VICE NEWS

Their umbrellas weren't just protection against the weather - they were a savvy tactic that served Hong Kongers well against tear gas fired by riot police over the years as well as to shield and protect injured protesters.

Bangkok's street vendors have also adapted, hawking goggles, helmets and raincoats as demand grows with each gathering.


Adding more eerie parallels to what happened in Hong Kong, jets of blue water were sprayed from water cannons mounted on trucks parked behind hundreds of riot police tasked with dispersing large crowds on Friday evening. The water was believed to contain chemical irritants similar to tear gas.

Acts of humanity

In a tweet that went viral, 24-year-old Hong Kong protest leader Joshua Wong drew attention to protesters in Bangkok over the weekend after they unified to part and create a path for an ambulance.


A similar moment occurred in Hong Kong during the tumultuous protests in June 2019, and the two images looked almost identical.

Young leaders facing charges

"I rose to the occasion and sang "Glory to Hong Kong" for the people of Hong Kong to hope for a freer life," tweeted vocal Thai student and democracy protester Bunkueanun "Francis" Paothong at Joshua Wong and Nathan Law, another prominent face in Hong Kong's movement.

"You two are my heroes," he said. "I was moved by your words and your actions to raise the awareness of our struggle for a free and equal democracy in our country."

Francis is now facing a possible life sentence after he was in a crowd that flashed defiant three-finger salutes from the "Hunger Games" films in the face of a royal motorcade transporting the queen. He was briefly detained and granted bail but his arrest was one of dozens in the wake of an intensifying police crackdown on protesters.

World News
Thailand Bans Mass Gatherings in Attempt to Quash Pro-Democracy Protests
ANTHONY ESGUERRA10.14.20


Wong, the most well-known in Hong Kong's fight for democracy against an increasingly assertive Beijing, has repeatedly praised and encouraged protesters in Thailand.

"Brave Thais are defying draconian laws, flocking to the streets and making their voices heard. Their determination for democracy cannot be deterred," Wong said on Twitter, flooding his timeline with dozens of Twitter threads and videos showcasing defining moments from the weekend protests in Bangkok. "We can get through this together."

Charlie Thame, a political science lecturer at Bangkok's Thammasat University, said many young protesters take inspiration from struggles elsewhere.

"You can't help but be impressed by their maturity. Many are voracious learners. Their creativity is also impressive."

Stifling media freedom

Following a protest-charged weekend, Thai authorities have threatened to censor media outlets in a bid to quell growing dissent against the government and monarchy. The controversial move echoes government censorship in Hong Kong, where media freedom and journalists face threats and are being targeted for speaking out on coverage deemed sensitive.

"The arrest, albeit temporary, of a Thai journalist on Friday night highlights the new risks for the media in covering events," read a statement issued by the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT).

"As protests continue in Thailand, the FCCT is concerned about the safety and security of all involved. Journalists could be arrested for simply doing their jobs."

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On Aug. 10, Hong Kong media mogul and anti-government critic Jimmy Lai was arrested at his home under a new national security law - for suspected collusion with foreign forces. Scores of uniformed police officers raided the offices of Lai's Apple Daily newspaper, which he founded in 1995.

Thais have now moved to popular encrypted app Telegram in a bid to avoid shutdowns on Facebook, where many protest gathering sites were announced. Within days of starting a main coordinating group on the app, it had more than 160,000 members. In Hong Kong, Telegram also played a role in the protests by moving to safeguard the identity of demonstrators.

But its days may be short-lived after an order circulating online in Thailand on Monday said the government was attempting to restrict access to the app within the country.

The Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand expresses fears over press freedom and journalists’ safety

The Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand (FCCT) has expressed concerns over the “new risks” to journalists covering the unrest in Thailand and called on the authorities to “respect the role and responsibilities” of all media. Below are the FCCT’s statements in full.

The FCCT released the following statement on October 18, 2020. 

As protests continue in Thailand, the FCCT is concerned about the safety and security of all involved, including members of the media – both foreign and Thai. In particular provisions of the new emergency decree place vaguely defined criteria for news coverage that could see journalists arrested for simply doing their job. The arrest, albeit temporary, of a Thai journalist on Friday night highlights the new risks for media in covering events. The FCCT urges the authorities to respect the role and responsibilities of all media in Thailand.

The FCCT released the following statement on October 19, 2020. 

Post Date: October 19, 2020

Thai authorities seek to censor coverage of student protests
By GRANT PECK and CHRIS BLAKE

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Pro-democracy activists wave mobile phones with lights during a demonstration at Kaset intersection, suburbs of Bangkok, Thailand, Monday, Oct. 19, 2020. Thai authorities worked Monday to stem a growing tide of protests calling for the prime minister to resign by threatening to censor news coverage, raiding a publishing house and attempting to block the Telegram messaging app used by demonstrators. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

BANGKOK (AP) — Thai authorities worked Monday to stem a growing tide of protests calling for the prime minister to resign by threatening to censor news coverage, raiding a publishing house and attempting to block the Telegram messaging app used by demonstrators.

The efforts by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s government to drain the student-led protests of support and the ability to organize comes as demonstrations have grown in the capital and spread around the country, despite an emergency decree, which bans public gatherings of more than four people in Bangkok, outlaws news said to affect national security and gives authorities broad power to detain people.


Pro-democracy protesters flash three-fingered salute during a demonstration at Kaset intersection, suburbs of Bangkok, Thailand, Monday, Oct. 19, 2020. Thailand's embattled Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said Monday that there were no plans to extend a state of emergency outside the capital, even as student-led protests calling for him to leave office spread around the country. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

Thousands of mostly young protesters massed in northern Bangkok on Monday evening, as they have in various locations in the capital over the past six days to push their demands, including a controversial call for reform of the monarchy. As night fell, they held their cellphones up, lighting the crowd.

The protesters charge that Prayuth, an army commander who led a 2014 coup, was returned to power unfairly in last year’s general election because laws had been changed to favor a pro-military party. The protesters say a constitution written and passed under military rule is undemocratic.

But their more recent demand for checks and balances on the monarchy has deeply angered conservative Thais — and broken a taboo since the monarchy is considered sacrosanct and tough laws protecting it from insult mean its role is not usually discussed openly. It has also raised the risk of confrontation in a country where calls for political change have a history of being met with military intervention or even violence.

Authorities are now increasingly turning to censorship to try to clamp down on the demonstrations after protesters heckled a royal motorcade last week in a once unthinkable scene.

With protesters gathering again on Monday evening, a top official with the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission confirmed reports that the agency had been ordered to block access to the messaging app Telegram. Suthisak Tantayothin said it was talking with internet service providers about doing so, but so far the encrypted messaging app favored by many demonstrators around the world was still available in the country.

Police also searched the office of a publishing house that handles books by Thai and foreign scholars with sometimes controversial perspectives. Same Sky publishing house said police took away copies of three titles that had been sold at a recent book fair in a bundle it called Monarchy Studies, and asked their publisher to come for questioning at their station.


A young pro-democracy activist displays a message during a demonstration at Kaset intersection, suburbs of Bangkok, Thailand, Monday, Oct. 19, 2020. Thai authorities worked Monday to stem a growing tide of protests calling for the prime minister to resign by threatening to censor news coverage, raiding a publishing house and attempting to block the Telegram messaging app used by demonstrators. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

Deputy police spokesman Kissana Phataracharoen also confirmed an order signed by the chief of police that could allow officials to block access to news sites that give what he called “distorted information.”

Under existing laws, the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission and the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society are empowered to ban broadcasts and block internet content. Police themselves can also do so under the emergency decree, which went into effect Oct. 15.

Kissana spoke after a leaked copy of the censorship request circulated on social media. The order calls for blocking access to the online sites of Voice TV, The Reporters, The Standard, Prachatai, and Free Youth, and removing their existing content. It also proposes a ban on Voice TV’s over-the-air digital broadcasts.

All the outlets have been broadcasting live coverage of the protests. Voice TV and Prachatai are openly sympathetic to the protest movement, and Free Youth is a student protest organization. As of Monday, none had been blocked. At least one local cable TV provider, however, has been censoring international news broadcasts during their segments on the Thai protests.

The Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand said it was “deeply concerned” by the censorship threat, adding that it “makes the government appear heavy-handed and unresponsive to criticism, and could stir up even more public anger.”

“Bona fide journalists should be allowed to report important developments without the threat of bans, suspensions, censorship or prosecution hanging over them,” the club said in a statement.

Despite the spread of protests outside the capital, Prayuth, the prime minister, told reporters the state of emergency will remain only in Bangkok for now.

In addition the emergency decree making protests illegal, authorities have also tried in vain to keep people from gathering by selectively shutting down stations on Bangkok’s mass transit lines. It has also warned that it will take legal action against those who promote the protests on social media, including by taking photographs there or checking into them on social media apps.

Despite that, protest-related hashtags remain the most used on Twitter.

One of the many student groups involved in organizing the protests, Free Youth, recently said its Facebook account might soon be blocked and asked people to sign up for Telegram. Within about a day, it had 200,000 subscribers on the app.

Prayuth said Monday that the government is open to an extraordinary session of Parliament to seek a solution to the current situation. It was not clear when that might be held.

A frontline pro-democracy activist wearing a protective gas-mask looks on during a demonstration at Kaset intersection, suburbs of Bangkok, Thailand, Monday, Oct. 19, 2020. Thailand's embattled Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said Monday that there were no plans to extend a state of emergency outside the capital, even as student-led protests calling for him to leave office spread around the country. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)