How COVID-19 led to Donald Trump’s defeat

December 7, 2020 

Did the COVID-19 pandemic doom Donald Trump’s re-election? Our study examining the effect of COVID-19 cases on county-level voting in the United States shows that the pandemic led to Trump’s defeat on Nov. 3.

Our analysis suggests that, all things being equal, Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been between five and 10 per cent lower. In particular, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — which President-elect Joe Biden won by a slim margin — would have remained red if cases had been five per cent lower.

Trump would have also added Michigan to this list if cases had been 10 per cent lower.

This finding is at odds with some initial news analyses that indicated regions with the worst COVID-19 outbreaks voted for Trump.

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In fact, national polls and academic studies suggest that Trump’s voters are significantly less likely to wear masks and comply with social distancing, which in turn increase the probability of outbreaks. So Trump voters in Trump-friendly jurisdictions, due to their aversion to wearing masks, had more dramatic COVID-19 outbreaks leading up to the election.

Mostly maskless Trump supporters gather for a rally in Miami on Nov. 1, 2020. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

The COVID-19 effect

We estimated the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in Trump’s county-level share of votes between 2016 and 2020.

To account for potential alternative explanations, we included a large number of pandemic-related controls, including measures of social distancing, that captured differences in virus containment measures that might have affected cases and had an impact on Trump support.

In an attempt to measure the causal relationship between COVID-19 cases and votes for Trump, we used the share of workers employed in meat-processing factories associated with COVID-19 outbreaks as a source of external variations in COVID-19 cases. Doing so mitigated the risk of a spurious correlation between the incidence of the pandemic and Trump support.

We found that voters living in counties with a high number of COVID-19 cases were less likely to vote for Trump. This effect appears strongest in urban areas and in swing states. The strong results in cities are likely driven by suburban areas, where Trump performed much better in 2016 than he did in 2020.

These results suggest that some Trump voters may have switched to Biden because of the pandemic. In addition, we found no evidence that counties with a large increase in unemployment compared to the pre-pandemic period were more likely to switch from Trump to Biden. This last result seems to indicate that health concerns trumped — pardon the pun — economic conditions.

Retrospective voting

Now that we have an answer to our initial question, how can we explain these results? There are two possible explanations as to why the pandemic decided the 2020 presidential election.

On the one hand, voters may have electorally sanctioned Trump for how he handled the pandemic. Prior to the pandemic, the U.S. economy was performing well, and Trump, while extremely polarizing, enjoyed strong support among Republican voters.

The virus changed the narrative, and Trump’s response was widely criticized. He consistently downplayed the risks of the disease, refused to embrace basic health precautions such as masks and repeatedly criticized epidemiologists and scientists, including those advising him. 

Protesters stand outside the White House to demonstrate against Trump’s lax handling of COVID-19. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

His response, in contrast to leaders in other developed democracies, was profoundly unsuccessful, as the recent dramatic surge of cases has demonstrated once more.

This explanation is in line with a well-established theory in political science: retrospective voting. In a nutshell, that’s when citizens evaluate and vote based on their perceptions of the incumbent’s performance. If incumbents are perceived as incompetent, citizens vote them out of office.

While intuitive, this theory has not been always empirically true. However, it does seem to have some value in explaining the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.
Economic fears, need of social safety net

On the other hand, some voters may have switched to Biden from Trump due to the pandemic-fuelled recession. A severe public health threat and major economic losses may have shifted preferences in favour of an expansion of the social safety net, including health care and unemployment insurance programs.

Volunteers load boxes of food into cars during a Greater Pittsburgh Community Food bank drive-up food distribution in Duquesne, Pa., on Nov. 23, 2020. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Since the Democratic Party and its presidential candidate are more likely to champion these policies, Biden reaped the electoral benefits of this switch in voters’ preferences.

This explanation is in line with studies that suggest political preferences are shaped by personal experience. The same studies show this switch in political preferences is often long-lasting.

For instance, there is evidence that people growing up in a recession are more likely to favour state intervention and large social welfare programs.

This second explanation would be good news for the Democratic Party even in subsequent elections, when, hopefully, the pandemic will not dictate the narrative of the campaign but may still be fresh in the memories of voters.

Authors

Abel Brodeur
Associate professor, health economics, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

Leonardo Baccini
Associate professor, political science, McGill University

Leonardo Baccini receives funding from SSHRC (Canada).

Stephen Weymouth
Associate professor, international business, Georgetown University

Donald Trump: how COVID-19 killed his hope of re-election – new research

November 30, 2020 

The sun sets on the Trump White House. EPA-EFE/Samuel Corum

When Donald Trump tested positive for COVID-19 on October 2 and was hospitalised a day later it was widely assumed this would put a major crimp in his re-election campaign. In the event, the US president recovered quite quickly and returned to the campaign trail with gusto after a typically bullish photo-op as he arrived back at the White House.

But survey evidence – initial findings from which are published here for the first time – shows that, despite having apparently triumphed over the virus, he did not escape the grasp of COVID-19 and that his handling of the pandemic played a crucial role in his defeat in the November 3 election.

COVID-19’s horrific toll on human life and its devastating effects on millions of people’s economic and psychological wellbeing have become omnipresent realities. So it’s hardly surprising that the University of Texas at Dallas’ national Cometrends survey, which was conducted in the two weeks before the presidential election, indicates that the pandemic was the dominant issue on many voters’ minds.

Graph 1: Important issues facing the country, October 2020. 

Source: Cometrends October 2020 pre-election survey, Author provided

As the first graph, above, shows, 62% of 2,500 respondents cited the COVID crisis as one of the top three issues facing the country, while 39% said it was the single most important. No other issue – not even the ailing economy – was chosen as most important by one person in five.

The salience of the pandemic as an issue was a major problem for Trump because an overwhelming number of voters judged that he had mishandled the crisis. As the second graph, below, shows, two-thirds of the Cometrends survey respondents said that they disapproved of the president’s response, while only one person in four approved. When given another chance to comment on his pandemic performance later in the survey, 51% said it had been “bad” or “terrible” and only 38% said “good” or “excellent”.

Graph 2: Approval of Trump’s job performance on most important issue.

 Source: Cometrends October 2020 pre-election survey, Author provided

These dismal ratings for the president on coronavirus were quite opposite to those for the economy – among people who thought the economy was the most important issue, 69% approved of the job the president was doing and only 25% disapproved. Although this was good news for Trump, only a relatively small minority (17%) of voters gave the economy top billing as their most important issue. Moreover, he could not rely on various other issues to improve his job approval rating – across all issues other than the pandemic, only 41% approved of the president’s performance compared with 50% who disapproved.

Graph 3: Probability of voting for Trump by importance of COVID-19 issue. with statistical controls for other issues, partisanship, ideology and demographics. 

Source: Cometrends October 2020 pre-election survey, Author provided

The third graph, above, shows clearly that if electors were not that concerned about the pandemic they were more likely to vote for Trump as president. But if they gave the issue the top priority they were much less likely to do so. The graph illustrates the impact of COVID-19 on voting for the president, while at the same time statistically taking into account a number of other factors that influence voting behaviour.

The latter include attitudes to the economy, the environment, healthcare, law and order and race relations, as well as other important measures such as identifications with the Democratic and Republican parties, liberal-conservative ideological views and socio-demographic characteristics. The probability of voting for Trump is only 42% among voters who thought COVID-19 was the most important issue but 53% among those who prioritised some other issue in the top three.

This pattern is the opposite for that of the economy. More than three-quarters of voters who gave top priority to the economy supported Trump. That number fell to less than one in three among those for whom economic conditions were not a major concern.

These numbers are nearly identical to those for the large group of potential swing voters who think of themselves as political independents and have no attachment to either of the parties. Independents giving top priority to the pandemic made up nearly 13% of the voters in the Cometrends survey and, other things being equal, the probability of them voting for Trump was very mediocre, at just slightly over 40%.
Game-changing virus

As he was preparing for the 2020 campaign, Trump repeatedly emphasised that his case for re-election was strengthened by his demonstrated ability to deliver economic prosperity. Soaring stock prices and record low unemployment numbers for many groups of voters including ethnic and racial minorities, women and young people were helping the president to make his case. Then the pandemic came along and profoundly changed America and the election-year issue agenda.

As the election date of November 3 approached, most people focusing on the economy as the number one priority continued to give Trump high marks. But these people were now a distinct minority of the electorate. COVID-19 had become the dominant issue for millions of Americans and our survey evidence strongly indicates that most of them judged Trump very harshly for how he was handling the crisis. In many cases, those adverse judgements translated into votes for Trump’s opponent, Joe Biden.

Trump may have recovered physically from COVID-19. But his prospects of re-election took a body blow that he would not recover from.

Authors
Paul Whiteley

Professor, Department of Government, University of Essex
Harold D Clarke

Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
Karl Ho

Associate Professor of Instruction, University of Texas at Dallas
Marianne Stewart

Professor of Political Science, University of Texas at Dallas
Disclosure statement

Paul Whiteley receives funding from the British Academy and the Economic and Social Research Council.

Harold D Clarke has received funding from the National Science Foundation (US).

Karl Ho receives funding from Hong Kong Research Grants Council, Taiwan Ministry of Education, Taiwan Fellowship.

Marianne Stewart receives funding from National Science Foundaton (US).
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The Original Story of Flight: Pterosaur Precursors Discovered That Fill Gap in Early Evolutionary History

By VIRGINIA TECH DECEMBER 11, 2020

A high flying Pteranodon, a genus of pterosaur that included some of the largest known flying reptiles. Illustration courtesy of Elenarts / Adobe Stock. Credit: Elenarts

Here’s the original story of flight. Sorry, Wright Brothers, but this story began way before your time — during the Age of the Dinosaurs.

Pterosaurs were the earliest reptiles to evolve powered flight, dominating the skies for 150 million years before their imminent extinction some 66 million years ago.

However, key details of their evolutionary origin and how they gained their ability to fly have remained a mystery; one that paleontologists have been trying to crack for the past 200 years. In order to learn more about their evolution and fill in a few gaps in the fossil record, their closest relatives had to be identified.

With the help of newly discovered skulls and skeletons that were unearthed in North America, Brazil, Argentina, and Madagascar in recent years, Virginia Tech researchers Sterling Nesbitt and Michelle Stocker from the Department of Geosciences in the College of Science have demonstrated that a group of “dinosaur precursors,” called lagerpetids, are the closest relatives of pterosaurs.

Artistic rendering of Dromomeron (foreground) and associated dinosaurs and relatives, based off of fossils from Ghost Ranch, New Mexico. Illustration courtesy of Donna Braginetz. Credit: Donna Braginetz

“Where did pterosaurs come from?’ is one of the most outstanding questions in reptile evolution; we think we now have an answer,” said Nesbitt, who is an associate professor of geosciences and an affiliated faculty member of the Fralin Life Sciences Institute and the Global Change Center.

Their findings were published in Nature.

Fossils of Dromomeron gregorii, a species of lagerpetid, were first collected in Texas in the 1930s and 1940s, but they weren’t properly identified until 2009. Unique to this excavation was a well-preserved partial skull and braincase, which, after further investigation, revealed that these reptiles had a good sense of equilibrium and were likely agile animals.

A partial skeleton of Lagerpeton (hips, leg, and vertebrae) from ~235 million years from Argentina. Further examination of this specimen helped tie features of lagerpetids to pterosaurs. Photo courtesy of Sterling Nesbitt. Credit: Virginia Tech

After finding more lagerpetid species in South America, paleontologists were able to create a pretty good picture of what the lagerpetids were; which were small, wingless reptiles that lived across Pangea during much of the Triassic Period, from 237 to 210 million years ago.

And in the past 15 years, five research groups from six different countries and three continents have come together to right some wrongs in the evolutionary history of the pterosaur, after the recent discovery of many lagerpetid skulls, forelimbs, and vertebrae from the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and Madagascar.

What gave paleontologists the idea to take a closer look at lagerpetids as the closest relatives of pterosaurs? Paleontologists have been studying the bones of lagerpetids for quite some time, and they have noted that the length and shape of their bones were similar to the bones of pterosaurs and dinosaurs. But with the few fossils that they had before, it could only be assumed that lagerpetids were a bit closer to dinosaurs.

What really caused a shift in the family tree can be attributed to the recently collected lagerpetid skulls and forelimbs, which displayed features that were more similar to pterosaurs than dinosaurs. And with the help of new technological advances, researchers found that pterosaurs and lagerpetids share far more similarities than meet the eye.

Using micro-computed tomographic (µCT) scanning to reconstruct their brains and sensory systems within the recently discovered skulls, paleontologists determined that the brains and sensory systems of lagerpetids had many similarities with those of pterosaurs.

“CT data has been revolutionary for paleontology,” said Stocker, who is an assistant professor of vertebrate paleontology and an affiliated faculty member of the Fralin Life Sciences Institute and the Global Change Center.

“Some of these delicate fossils were collected nearly 80 years ago, and rather than destructively cutting into this first known skull of Dromomeron, we were able to use this technology to carefully reconstruct the brain and inner ear anatomy of these small fossils to help determine the early relatives of pterosaurs.”

One stark and mystifying finding was that the flightless lagerpetids had already evolved some of the neuroanatomical features that allowed the pterosaurs to fly, which brought forth even more information on the origin of flight.

“This study is a result of an international effort applying both traditional and cutting-edge techniques,” said Martín D. Ezcurra, lead author of the study from the Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales in Buenos Aires, Argentina. “This is an example of how modern science and collaboration can shed light on long-standing questions that haunted paleontologists during more than a century.”

Ultimately, the study will help bridge the anatomical and evolutionary gaps that exist between pterosaurs and other reptiles. The new evolutionary relationships that have emerged from this study will create a new paradigm, providing a completely new framework for the study of the origin of these reptiles and their flight capabilities.

With the little information that paleontologists had about early pterosaurs, they had often attributed extremely fast evolution for the acquisition of their unique body plan. But now that lagerpetids are deemed the precursors of pterosaurs, paleontologists can say that pterosaurs evolved at the same rate as other major reptile groups, thanks to the newly discovered “middle man.”

“Flight is such a fascinating behaviour, and it evolved multiple times during Earth’s history,” said Serjoscha W. Evers, of the University of Fribourg. “Proposing a new hypothesis of their relationships with other extinct animals is a major step forward in understanding the origins of pterosaur flight.”

Some questions still remain in this evolutionary mystery. Now that lagerpetids are the closest relatives of pterosaurs, why are they still lacking some of the key characteristics of pterosaurs, including the most outstanding of those – wings?

“We are still missing lots of information about the earliest pterosaurs, and we still don’t know how their skeletons transformed into an animal that was capable of flight,” said Nesbitt.

Nesbitt, Stocker, and a team of Virginia Tech graduate and undergraduate students will continue to study animals that appeared in the Triassic Period – a period of time in Earth history when many familiar groups of vertebrates, such as dinosaurs, turtles, mammal relatives, and amphibians, first appeared. If and when conditions are safe, they plan on going into the field to collect more fossils from the Triassic Period.

Maybe soon, we will have more information to put some finishing touches on the original story of flight.

Reference: “Enigmatic dinosaur precursors bridge the gap to the origin of Pterosauria” by Martín D. Ezcurra, Sterling J. Nesbitt, Mario Bronzati, Fabio Marco Dalla Vecchia, Federico L. Agnolin, Roger B. J. Benson, Federico Brissón Egli, Sergio F. Cabreira, Serjoscha W. Evers, Adriel R. Gentil, Randall B. Irmis, Agustín G. Martinelli, Fernando E. Novas, Lúcio Roberto da Silva, Nathan D. Smith, Michelle R. Stocker, Alan H. Turner and Max C. Langer, 9 December 2020, Nature.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-3011-4

Fragments of Energy – Not Waves or Particles – May Be the Fundamental Building Blocks of the Universe

By LARRY M. SILVERBERG, NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY DECEMBER 11, 2020

New mathematics have shown that lines of energy can be used to describe the universe.

Matter is what makes up the universe, but what makes up matter? This question has long been tricky for those who think about it – especially for the physicists. Reflecting recent trends in physics, my colleague Jeffrey Eischen and I have described an updated way to think about matter. We propose that matter is not made of particles or waves, as was long thought, but – more fundamentally – that matter is made of fragments of energy.

In ancient times, five elements were thought to be the building blocks of reality.
From five to one

The ancient Greeks conceived of five building blocks of matter – from bottom to top: earth, water, air, fire, and aether. Aether was the matter that filled the heavens and explained the rotation of the stars, as observed from the Earth vantage point. These were the first most basic elements from which one could build up a world. Their conceptions of the physical elements did not change dramatically for nearly 2,000 years.

Sir Issac Newton, credited with developing the particle theory. Credit: Christopher Terrell, CC BY-ND

Then, about 300 years ago, Sir Isaac Newton introduced the idea that all matter exists at points called particles. One hundred fifty years after that, James Clerk Maxwell introduced the electromagnetic wave – the underlying and often invisible form of magnetism, electricity and light. The particle served as the building block for mechanics and the wave for electromagnetism – and the public settled on the particle and the wave as the two building blocks of matter. Together, the particles and waves became the building blocks of all kinds of matter.

This was a vast improvement over the ancient Greeks’ five elements, but was still flawed. In a famous series of experiments, known as the double-slit experiments, light sometimes acts like a particle and at other times acts like a wave. And while the theories and math of waves and particles allow scientists to make incredibly accurate predictions about the universe, the rules break down at the largest and tiniest scales.

Einstein proposed a remedy in his theory of general relativity. Using the mathematical tools available to him at the time, Einstein was able to better explain certain physical phenomena and also resolve a longstanding paradox relating to inertia and gravity. But instead of improving on particles or waves, he eliminated them as he proposed the warping of space and time.

Using newer mathematical tools, my colleague and I have demonstrated a new theory that may accurately describe the universe. Instead of basing the theory on the warping of space and time, we considered that there could be a building block that is more fundamental than the particle and the wave. Scientists understand that particles and waves are existential opposites: A particle is a source of matter that exists at a single point, and waves exist everywhere except at the points that create them. My colleague and I thought it made logical sense for there to be an underlying connection between them.

A new building block of matter can model both the largest and smallest of things – from stars to light. Credit: Christopher Terrell, CC BY-ND

Flow and fragments of energy

Our theory begins with a new fundamental idea – that energy always “flows” through regions of space and time.

Think of energy as made up of lines that fill up a region of space and time, flowing into and out of that region, never beginning, never ending and never crossing one another.

Working from the idea of a universe of flowing energy lines, we looked for a single building block for the flowing energy. If we could find and define such a thing, we hoped we could use it to accurately make predictions about the universe at the largest and tiniest scales.

There were many building blocks to choose from mathematically, but we sought one that had the features of both the particle and wave – concentrated like the particle but also spread out over space and time like the wave. The answer was a building block that looks like a concentration of energy – kind of like a star – having energy that is highest at the center and that gets smaller farther away from the center.

Much to our surprise, we discovered that there were only a limited number of ways to describe a concentration of energy that flows. Of those, we found just one that works in accordance with our mathematical definition of flow. We named it a fragment of energy. For the math and physics aficionados, it is defined as A = -⍺/r where ⍺ is intensity and r is the distance function.

Using the fragment of energy as a building block of matter, we then constructed the math necessary to solve physics problems. The final step was to test it out.
Back to Einstein, adding universality

More than 100 ago, Einstein had turned to two legendary problems in physics to validate general relativity: the ever-so-slight yearly shift – or precession – in Mercury’s orbit, and the tiny bending of light as it passes the Sun.

General relativity was the first theory to accurately predict the slight rotation of Mercury’s orbit. Credit: Rainer Zenz via Wikimedia Commons

These problems were at the two extremes of the size spectrum. Neither wave nor particle theories of matter could solve them, but general relativity did. The theory of general relativity warped space and time in such way as to cause the trajectory of Mercury to shift and light to bend in precisely the amounts seen in astronomical observations.

If our new theory was to have a chance at replacing the particle and the wave with the presumably more fundamental fragment, we would have to be able to solve these problems with our theory, too.

For the precession-of-Mercury problem, we modeled the Sun as an enormous stationary fragment of energy and Mercury as a smaller but still enormous slow-moving fragment of energy. For the bending-of-light problem, the Sun was modeled the same way, but the photon was modeled as a minuscule fragment of energy moving at the speed of light. In both problems, we calculated the trajectories of the moving fragments and got the same answers as those predicted by the theory of general relativity. We were stunned.

Our initial work demonstrated how a new building block is capable of accurately modeling bodies from the enormous to the minuscule. Where particles and waves break down, the fragment of energy building block held strong. The fragment could be a single potentially universal building block from which to model reality mathematically – and update the way people think about the building blocks of the universe.

Written by Larry M. Silverberg, Professor of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, North Carolina State University.

Physicists Prove Anyons Exist, a Third Type of Particle in the Universe

Physicists give us an early view of a third kingdom of quasiparticles that only arise in two dimensions.

By Stephen Ornes December 12, 2020 


After decades of exploration in nature’s smallest domains, physicists have finally found evidence that anyons exist. First predicted by theorists in the early 1980s, these particle-like objects only arise in realms confined to two dimensions, and then only under certain circumstances — like at temperatures near absolute zero and in the presence of a strong magnetic field.

Physicists are excited about anyons not only because their discovery confirms decades of theoretical work, but also for practical reasons. For example: Anyons are at the heart of an effort by Microsoft to build a working quantum computer.

This year brought two solid confirmations of the quasiparticles. The first arrived in April, in a paper featured on the cover of Science, from a group of researchers at the École Normale Supérieure in Paris. Using an approach proposed four years ago, physicists sent an electron gas through a teeny-tiny particle collider to tease out weird behaviors — especially fractional electric charges — that only arise if anyons are around. The second confirmation came in July, when a group at Purdue University in Indiana used an experimental setup on an etched chip that screened out interactions that might obscure the anyon behavior.

MIT physicist Frank Wilczek, who predicted and named anyons in the early 1980s, credits the first paper as the discovery but says the second lets the quasiparticles shine. “It’s gorgeous work that makes the field blossom,” he says. Anyons aren’t like ordinary elementary particles; scientists will never be able to isolate one from the system where it forms. They’re quasiparticles, which means they have measurable properties like a particle — such as a location, maybe even a mass — but they’re only observable as a result of the collective behavior of other, conventional particles. (Think of the intricate geometric shapes made by group behavior in nature, such as flocks of birds flying in formation or schools of fish swimming as one.)

The known universe contains only two varieties of elementary particles. One is the family of fermions, which includes electrons, as well as protons, neutrons, and the quarks that form them. Fermions keep to themselves: No two can exist in the same quantum state at the same time. If these particles didn’t have this property, all matter could simply collapse to a single point. It’s because of fermions that solid matter exists.

The rest of the particles in the universe are bosons, a group that includes particles like photons (the messengers of light and radiation) and gluons (which “glue” quarks together). Unlike fermions, two or more bosons can exist in the same state as the same time.

They tend to clump together. It’s because of this clumping that we have lasers, which are streams of photons all occupying the same quantum state.

Anyons don’t fit into either group. What makes anyons especially exciting for physicists is they exhibit something analogous to particle memory. If a fermion orbits another fermion, its quantum state remains unchanged. Same goes for a boson.

Anyons are different. If one moves around another, their collective quantum state shifts. It might require three or even five or more revolutions before the anyons return to their original state. This slight shift in the wave acts like a kind of memory of the trip. This property makes them appealing objects for quantum computers, which depend on quantum states that are notoriously fragile and prone to errors. Anyons suggest a more robust way to store data.

Wilczek points out that anyons represent a whole “kingdom” containing many varieties with exotic behaviors that can be explored and harnessed in the future. He began thinking about them about 40 years ago in graduate school, when he became frustrated with proofs that only established the existence of two kinds of particles.

He envisioned something else, and when asked about their other properties or where to find these strange in-betweeners, half-jokingly said, “anything goes” — giving rise to the name.

Now, he says, the new studies are just the beginning. Looking forward, he sees anyons as a tool for finding exotic states of matter that, for now, remain wild ideas in physicists’ theories.

Welcome to the apocalypse: Artist renders Edmonton in dreadful, dystopian future

Mike Roshuk imagines a future where 'chaos has ruled'


Wallis Snowdon · CBC News · Posted: Dec 11, 2020 

In this digital painting by Mike Roshuk, Edmonton's arena becomes a chilling scene of a downtown destroyed. (Mike Roshuk)


An Edmonton artist is painting the city in a dark, dystopian light.

Mike Roshuk alters photographs of the capital, transforming familiar urban landscapes into stark images of post-apocalyptic destruction.

The digital paintings imagine a city in a not-so-distant future devoid of people, its buildings abandoned and crumbling with age.

The once glimmering skyscrapers of downtown appear dilapidated, their windows shattered and overgrown with rotting vegetation.

Once sturdy historic landmarks, turned to rubble.

Rogers Place becomes a dilapidated field hospital.
'Law and order has left'

The legislature appears on the edge of collapse, its columns cracked and stone turrets heaving dangerously. A military tank covered in graffiti stands watch nearby.

Roshuk said he delights in the details. Each one takes him eight to 10 hours to complete.

"I wanted to kind of tell a story," he said. "Where people can look at it and think, what happened?"

"Law and order has left. Chaos has ruled."

In this altered image of Jasper Avenue and 101st Street in a not so distant future, iconic buildings have begun to collapse. (Mike Roshuk)

Roshuk, who previously worked as a professional illustrator, said he began the "nerdy project" just for fun as the pandemic began to restrict daily life this spring.

He took photographs and then spent hours carefully altering them digitally on Photoshop.

A fan of video games, sci-fi films and the zombie genre, Roshuk said he wanted to imagine how some of his favourite plots would play out in his home city.

"Watching these movies, it's always like New York or L.A. or Las Vegas being destroyed," he said.

"After a while, it's like you kind of almost expect it, right? Like, OK, here's L.A. being hit by a tsunami again.

"You're so used to seeing these cities being destroyed by aliens or natural disasters, it just doesn't even resonate anymore."

Mike Roshuk says he delights in the dreadful details of his digital paintings. (Supplied by Mike Roshuk)

Roshuk said his renderings were partly inspired by Black Summer, a Netflix series set in the early days of a zombie apocalypse.

Many of the scenes in the show were filmed in Calgary and watching the plot unfold in familiar territory gave Roshuk a strange sense of foreboding.

"I started watching it and then I had to pause it and look it up, because so many of the locations were familiar," he said.

"It really gave me more like an uneasy feeling of dread because, you know, it's like it hit home.

"That's sort of where the inspiration for these images came from. I wanted to, I guess, give myself that same feeling of dread again."
'End-of-the-world fantasy'

Roshuk has been regularly posting his images online and they're garnering hundreds of comments on social media forums like Reddit.

Many have told Roshuk the images hit a little too close to home during a global pandemic.

"Because of timing and everything that was going on in the world and in the news, I kind of knew that they would go crazy a little bit and they'd really resonate with people," he said.

"This is just purely entertainment, a disaster, end-of-the-world fantasy. But it's neat when you put images out there and then they go a little bit viral, it's always interesting to see the different ways people like to spin it."

Roshuk's rendering shows the legislature being reclaimed by nature. A tank standing nearby hints at conflicts past. (Supplied by Mike Roshuk)

Roshuk plans to tackle his next project soon. He's musing over some images of big predators like bears battling on Jasper Avenue or a decimated West Edmonton Mall.

If not, Edmonton's cold, stark winter might also prove to be cruel enough inspiration.

"Now that it's snowing more, maybe I'll do some more pictures and have a snowy frozen wasteland of Edmonton. But I'm not really sure how different that will be from today."

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Wallis Snowdon is a digital journalist with CBC Edmonton. She has nearly a decade of experience reporting behind her. Originally from New Brunswick, her journalism career has taken her from Nova Scotia to Fort McMurray. Share your stories with Wallis at wallis.snowdon@cbc.ca


With files from Emily Fitzpatrick

Diversity is Strength: CFL's Racial Justice Roundtable

 

The CFL and the CFL Players Association present a roundtable discussion hosted by Donnovan Bennett featuring alumni, coaching personnel and current players as they discuss their personal experiences with prejudice and discrimination.

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LOST WORLD

How a researcher found a blind snow trout near Thar desert – and why it’s vital to study it further

This biological puzzle could be the key to deepen our geological understanding of the region.

The blind fish that Raza Tehsin found in Rajasthan in 1987. | Arefa Tehsin


In the summer of 1987, the naturalist Raza H Tehsin was collecting biodiversity data at Matoon Mines near Udaipur city just east of the Thar desert in Rajasthan. Hindustan Zinc Limited was excavating rock phosphate here and had hired Tehsin – my father – to survey the fauna of this region.

Tehsin’s fascination with caves led him to ask the staff about unexplored caverns in that area. The chief engineer took him to a 50-foot shaft, which was said to have been formed because of copper being mined here several centuries before.

On an impulse (and much to the consternation of the three other researchers accompanying him), Tehsin climbed down the shaft without a rope or gas mask – or even a torch.

Little did Tehsin know that his adventure that day would lead him to a discovery that opened questions about the course of evolution and about the possibility that an ancient Himalayan waterway may have run its serpentine path in the Thar before the movement of the tectonic plates changed its course.

The bottom of the shaft, he told me later, was covered with debris and there was a pitch dark passage into the mine. He picked up a stone and threw it inside, trying to determine if the drop was steep. He heard a plop. There was water ahead.

After a tedious ascent clinging to the wall, he informed the engineer about the water source. This was good news for the company. The mill to grind the phosphate had halted operations because it had run out of water. Now it could resume work.

Tehsin made one request, though: could they please tell him if they found any fish?

Abuzz with activity

A month on, when Tehsin visited again, the shaft was transformed. There were ladders, electric fittings and pumps. The chief engineer was pleased. He had been praised by his seniors for restarting work. Though water was being pumped from the underground reservoir for 12 hours every day, it would fill up again during the night.

There were plenty of fish, the staff told him. But to Tehsin’s dismay, he was told that many kilograms of fish had been gathered – and eaten.

He found only one remaining specimen. It was blind. The mine workers had helped him catch it by pumping out the water. At the time the fish was captured, the water in the cave had a temperature of 18°C. The team took photographs of the fish and preserved it in formalin.

Raza Tehsin in 2006.

It was sent to VS Durvey, the head of department of fisheries at Mohan Lal Sukhadia University, Udaipur. He was an expert of limnology or the study of inland waters, both fresh and saline.

Durvey tentatively identified the blind cave fish as belonging to the Schizothoracine family of snow trout, a type of carp that are normally restricted to the cool mountain streams of the Himalayas. The closest members of this family of fish lie several hundred kilometres away on the far side of the Thar Desert.

It was most mysterious. How did a fish swim from the great mountains to the great desert?

As it turned out, that wasn’t the only mystery. Durvey noted that some of the characteristics of the specimen did not coincide with that of the snow trout.

To try to get a firm identification, the specimen was sent to Bombay Natural History Society in January 1988 and they forwarded it to the marine biology expert BF Chhapgar. But the Society, it seemed, did not have adequate literature on the subject. In search of more definite information, the speciment was sent to the British Museum. After that, the specimen went missing. Despite repeated reminders by Bombay Natural History Society, there has not been a response from the British Museum till date.

‘Something unimaginable’

In a video interview in 2006, Durvey said that snow trout is found in Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and the higher reaches of Himalayas. “It was not something new,” he said. “But to get the fish in the plains, that too in the region of Rajasthan was something unimaginable and absolutely new.”

He had a theory about how Tehsin could have come to find the specimen in the mine outside Udaipur: “The significance of this find to me is that, sometime or the other in the past geological history of the region, a Himalayan river must be flowing through Rajasthan.”

In 1988, Tehsin, Durvey and a student named M Kulshreshtha, who had accompanied Tehsin on his second trip to Matoon Mines, published a research note in the Journal of the Bombay Natural History Society.

“Schizothoracine fishes inhabit hilly streams and lakes in the Himalayan and sub-Himalayan region extending to China,” they wrote. Such fishes had also been observed in Kashmir, Punjab, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tibet, and Nepal, they said.

As a consequence, “the occurrence of a Schizothoracine fish in the region south of Aravalli hills in Rajasthan is intriguing”, they wrote. “Presently there is no river or seasonal stream in this region connecting the drainage of the sub-Himalayan region of Punjab and Jammu Kashmir. Since the cave does not receive any surface drainage, the presence of Schizothoracine fish in the cave could be a case of geographical isolation.”

They added: “It is almost certain...that the river and streams of western Rajasthan...had Himalayan connections in former days. There could also be an underground drainage of the sub-Himalayan watershed connecting the streams and rivers of the region south of Aravalli ranges. Obviously, the water of this drainage could be cold.”

VS Durvey and Raza Tehsin in 2006.

As for specimen’s unconventional appearance, they explained that the “peculiar assemblage of different generic characters in the specimen studied could be the sequel of interbreeding and long isolation, thereby inducing speciation”.

After the publication of the research note, the acclaimed professor of geology SS Mehr, who worked for 25 years in the Himalayas, contacted Durvey. He told them that their findings confirmed his findings about the course of older rivers.

“He brought certain samples of stones from Rivers Luni and Ghaggar, and he told me that it was almost certain that a few thousand years back Himalayan rivers were flowing through Rajasthan and joining the Arabian Sea,” said Durvey. “While we have the geological evidence to show that these rivers were flowing through Rajasthan, this is a biological evidence. That too of a higher order. To get an evidence at a micro level, bacterial level or algae level is possible. But to get a higher level of animal kingdom is something very important.”

In 2006, two Australian scientists, behavioural biologist Culum Brown and ecological geneticist Felicity Brown, launched an expedition called “Lost in the Desert” with Raza Tehsin to try to collect further specimens of the fish from the cave complex. They were funded by Australian Geographic. But they were unable to find any more fish.
Uncharted territory

“When we came over to search for further specimens there was an incredibly bad drought,” said Brown, who is now Director Higher Degree Research (Biology) at the Macquarie University and assistant editor of the Journal of Fish Biology. “We had trouble finding water, let alone any fish, so this still remains something of a mystery.”

He added:“There is no doubt that historically a Himalayan river once flowed through Rajasthan. That has been noted several times by geologists. Due to slight uplifts in the landscape, the river was diverted east. But there are still substantial subterranean water flows in the region and it is certainly possible that these waterbodies act as refugia for fish that are no longer present on the surface. The surface water that exist today are simply too hot for snow trout, but below ground it is substantially cooler.”

Durvey remarked during the video documentation of the expedition that the underground caves in this part of the Aravallis have not been charted.

“Adivasis have told me that there are underground caves that contain water,” he said. “But then how to do it is a problem. It is a big project which has to be funded by a big organisation. Quite likely in other caves which we have not surveyed so far, they [the fish] must be there. It requires a real scientific investigation of high order with adventurous people getting into it and confirming this.” 

Australian researcher Culum Brown enters the shaft at the Matoon Mine.

Brown was one of those adventurous ones who followed Tehsin’s footsteps and ventured into the underground caves. “I’d say that it remains an intriguing possibility that snow trout exist in these underground systems,” he said. “Having said that, open cut mining in the area is draining the water table so these activities pose a great threat to subterranean water ecosystems.”

In 2015, Tensin gave an interview to PTI recalling his find. “This area lies in the Aravalli hills, one of the oldest ranges of the world,” he said. “There is no geological evidence from the historical era of a glacial river originating in the Aravallis or human memory of a Himalayan river flowing through this region. A major part of the drainage of the Aravalli region today is connected to the Gangetic system and some flows south, towards the Arabian Sea. It is possible that several thousand years back the drainage of Mewar was flowing towards the west and a tributary of a larger Himalayan river could have joined this drainage.”
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He added: “The fishes of the Himalayan region might have migrated through its tributaries towards Mewar. Due to geological changes, a fish species from the cold streams could have been cut off from their main water body, got trapped and survived in cooler underground water.”

Rain-fed rivers

At the time of its discovery, the prevalent opinion of geologists as well as fish experts was that it was the first live biological evidence that the Saraswati river mentioned in the Vedas once flowed through the Thar desert of Rajasthan. However, a recent research in hydrology published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the official journal of the National Academy of Sciences in the US, points that no glacial-fed rivers flowed between the Indus and Ganges basins during the Holocene – the epoch that began 11,650 years ago. All these rivers were rain-fed.

The snow trout that my father discovered is a biological indicator of a Himalayan cold-water stream or a river tributary that would have flowed through the Indus-Yamuna region, possibly very close to the Aravalli hill ranges. It may well be closely related to snow trout; however, it is likely to be a new species, specially adapted to life in caves as it lived in apparent isolation for thousands of years.

The spate of debates and research into the myth of the Saraswati has gained ground after the Indian government’s multi-million project to “revive” the river. While the scientific basis of this project is questionable and its political aspect is evident, the discovery of a blind cave fish needs to be pulled out from the distant haze of the 1980s.

This biological puzzle could be the key to deepen our geological understanding of the region and the story of how it came to be.

Arefa Tehsin is the author most recently of Steed of the Jungle God & Amra and the Witch. Visit her website here.

Sikh farmers have been great ambassadors of India's agri skills 

In the last two decades, farming in Punjab has become increasingly unremunerative and with hardly any other industry in the state, there are no jobs for the young, who face a bleak and hopeless future. 

Agricultural reforms, with the right motive and intention, are the crying need of the state.

SUNDEEP KHANNA
DEC 14, 2020 /
The Indian government and protesting farmers were unable to reach common ground in talks held on December 1, with the farmers saying their demonstrations against new agriculture laws will continue as will their blockades of key highways. (Image: AP)

Whatever be the politics of the current farm agitation there’s no denying the high esteem the Indian farmer from Punjab is held in across agricultural hubs of the world. Much like the country’s IT professionals who have carved a niche for themselves in the world of computing, Sikh farmers have used their skills gained from tilling the fields at home to make a mark in various parts of the world ranging from Argentina to Italy.

Their contribution to the dairy industry in Italy, is too recent and too well-known to need recounting. The headlines alone will suffice. ‘In Italian Heartland, Indians Keep the Cheese Coming’, wrote The New York Times (NYT), while Al Jazeera kept it to a simpler: ‘The Indians saving Italy’s traditional cheese industry’, and the BBC gave them a precise name: ‘The Sikhs who saved Parmesan’.

Through the 1980s and 1990s, so many of them made their way to the country’s agricultural zones that the term Sikh Route came into prevalence. Today, their hard work and expertise in dairy farming has made them integral to the Italian cheese industry.

It is a journey they have been taking for over a 100 years now. In his punjabi book ‘Unfole Warke’, Baba Bhagat Singh Bilga, a member of the legendary Gadar Party who passed away in 2009 at the ripe old age of 102, writes about the journey of the Sikhs to Argentina in 1910-11 to work in the sugar mills and railway workshops of Buenos Aires and Rosario.

Soon enough their labours took them to the farms and eventually led to owning many of them. A delightful article quoted by the Sikh Global Village, talks about Jiwa Singh and Tara Singh of village Boparai Khurd in Jalandhar district, who migrated to Argentina in 1958 and became one of the leading farm owners of Rosario de la Frontera.

In Canada too, Sikhs who first migrated to the country in the first few decades of the 20th century have proven themselves as ace farmers adept at picking up newer and more lucrative crops to cultivate. In fact, in Richmond, Vancouver, they were responsible for a revolution in cranberries. A few years ago Peter Dhillon, a Canadian Sikh farmer, who is the country’s biggest cranberry grower, was inducted into the country’s prestigious Agricultural Hall of Fame.

According to The Tribune, ‘Dhillon is also the current chairman of Ocean Spray — a marketing cooperative of cranberry farmers in the US and Canada. Ocean Spray sells its products in over 90 countries, with annual sales of over $2.5 billion.’

In their endeavours to leave their shores for better prospects abroad, they have had institutional help at home. When 10 years ago the Canadian government, facing a shortage of farmers following the retirement of many locals, started recruiting trained farmers from around the world to migrate to the country, the Ludhiana-based Punjab Agricultural University (PAU) devised special courses which included training in Canadian agri practices.

When states like Manitoba launched special schemes such as the ‘Young Farmer Nominee Programme’ (YFNP) for those below the age of 40, many Sikh farmers were well placed to take advantage of the opportunities.

Overseas success has come on the back of advances at home. For almost 20 years following the green revolution, Punjab was India’s most prosperous state and a beacon for others looking to increase the productivity of its land and people. In 1982, some 15 years after the Green Revolution, a report in The New York Times hailed the efforts of the which saw the state being held up by the World Bank as an outstanding example of how agricultural transformation might occur in the developing world.

For its achievements, the NYT pointed to the ‘Punjabi character’ and quoted MS Sra, the director of Punjab Department of Agriculture, who attributed the success to the Sikh farmers, ‘renowned for their enterprise, mechanical skill, appreciation of profit and willingness to experiment.’In the last two decades, farming in Punjab has become increasingly unremunerative and with hardly any other industry in the state, there are no jobs for the young, who face a bleak and hopeless future. Agricultural reforms, with the right motive and intention, are the crying need of the state. But none of this can deflect from the sterling reputation of the Sikh farmers.

SUNDEEP KHANNA is a senior journalist. Views are personal.

FIRST PUBLISHED: DEC 13, 2020 11:0

Farmers’ Protest Live Updates: 

Farmer leaders to observe 9-hour hunger strike tomorrow

Farmers' Protest Today Live News Updates: 

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said he will be holding a one-day fast Monday in support of the protesting farmers.

By: Express Web Desk | New Delhi |Updated: December 13, 2020 9:46:58 pm


Farmer leaders at Singhu border on Sunday. (Express photo)

Farmers’ Protest Live Updates: The heads of all farmer unions protesting against the Centre’s new agri laws for over two weeks now will observe a one-day hunger strike on Monday, farmer leader Gurnam Singh Chaduni said on Sunday. The hunger strike between 8 am to 5 pm on Monday is part of the farmers’ plan to intensify their agitation from December 14. Addressing a press conference at the Singhu border, where the farmers have been camping in agitation, Chaduni said the leaders will observe the hunger strike at their respective places. “Also dharnas will be staged at all district headquarters across the country. The protest will go on as usual,” he told PTI.

Earlier in the day, Union ministers Narendra Singh Tomar and Som Parkash met Home Minister Amit Shah on Sunday amidst farmers’ protests against the Centre’s three agriculture laws, news agency PTI reported. The ministers were accompanied by BJP leaders from Punjab. Tomar and Parkash, along with their ministerial colleague Piyush Goyal, had led the government’s negotiations with the protesting farmers.

Meanwhile, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal today said he will be holding a one-day fast Monday in support of the protesting farmers. He also urged all Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) workers and supporters to observe one-day fast in solidarity with the farmers. Addressing a virtual press briefing, the chief minister said the Centre should immediately accept all demands of the farmers who have been protesting on Delhi’s borders for the past two weeks. He also asked the BJP-ruled Centre to shun “arrogance” and scrap three farm laws as demanded by agitating farmers, and bring a Bill to guarantee minimum support price (MSP) for agricultural produce.

Farmers from Rajasthan and some other places gathered in large numbers on the Haryana-Rajasthan border near Rewari on Sunday for their march towards Delhi and sat in protest on side of the Delhi-Jaipur national highway as the Haryana police put up barricades to stop them. The farmers were sitting in protest at Jaisinghpur Kheda area in Rewari along Rajasthan-Haryana border (NH-48). Gurgaon is over 70 km from the site while Delhi is nearly 80 km away. Swaraj India chief Yogendra Yadav, who was at the site, said since the barricades have been put, the farmers had no option but to stage a sit-in.

LIVE BLOG

Farmers’ stir: 19-year-old NRI*** from Australia protests at Singhu border, says here to join ‘patriotic movement’

Moose Jattana, who has her roots in Punjab, is known on social media for being outspoken on social issues especially related to women.

Written by Kamaldeep Singh Brar | Amritsar | Updated: December 13, 2020 1:34:32 pm

Moose Jattana at the protest site on Singhu border. (Express Photo)

Among the protesters who have joined the farmers’ fight against Centre’s farm laws at Delhi borders is an Australian girl of Indian origin, Moose Jattana. For the last four days, the 19-year-old from Melbourne has been protesting at the Singhu border, doing volunteer service and assisting photographers on ground to record the ongoing agitation.

She said, “I am protesting here for most of the time of the day. I also do volunteer service here. I am studying filmmaking. Here I have been assisting photographers like Akshay Kapoor, Naveen Macro, who are capturing the farm agitation. I am going to stay put here till the victory is achieved.”

Talking about her Punjab connect, Moose added: “I was born and brought up in Australia. My mother is from Sangrur. I spent some time in Mohali as a child. I used to come to Punjab every year but now I have come after two years to be part of this protest.”

Moose said that she is “surprised the way government is dealing with the protesters”. “Government should be for the people. But here government is not ready to listen. It didn’t consult with farmers before passing bills and now when farmers are asking for their rights, government wants to paint them as traitors. I think it is the patriotic moment and this is why I am here,” she said.

Moose is known on social media for being outspoken on social issues especially related to women.

“I feel connected with Punjab for many reasons though I also see the limitations of Punjabi society when it comes to women and Dalits. Women and Dalits don’t have that space in Punjab that is enjoyed by upper caste men. I point out such discrimination in my videos on social media,” she said.

Asked why NRI Punjabis were concerned about the protest despite leaving the country, she said: “People go out of Punjab because there are less opportunities here and less stability. So they have to go to western countries and send money back home. Sometimes you can’t change the country and so you have to change your country. Because bringing change to country is not that easy. As we are seeing that how badly farmers have been treated when they want to change the country for good.”

*** NON RESIDENT INDIAN