Pangolin trafficking: iceberg tip of Nigeria’s illegal trade revealed

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

 

IMAGE: WHITE-BELLIED PANGOLIN SCALES CONFISCATED BY NIGERIA CUSTOMS SERVICE view more 

CREDIT: CHARLES EMOGOR

Since the first reported pangolin seizure in Nigeria in 2010, the country has seen an explosion in the black market for the world’s most trafficked mammal – becoming Africa’s hub for the criminal export of pangolin products to East Asia.

Use of pangolin scales in traditional Chinese medicines has resulted in Asian species declining dramatically this century.

Now, a team of conservationists led by the University of Cambridge has produced the first data-driven study quantifying Nigeria-linked seizures of pangolin product, in order to gauge the size of this illicit trade.

Just those shipments intercepted and reported by authorities between 2010 and September 2021 amounted to 190,407 kilos of pangolin scales taken from at least 799,343 but potentially up to almost a million dead creatures.

This figure is close to recent estimates for the entire global pangolin trade since 2000 – suggesting levels of trafficking are far greater than previously thought.   

Some seizures occurred in ports such as Hong Kong after leaving African shores. Researchers traced cargo from countries such as Cameroon and Gabon that was destined for Asian nations including China and Cambodia – sometimes travelling via France and Holland. All had been funnelled through Nigeria.   

Of the 77 seizures analysed in the new study, 26 were uncovered alongside thousands of kilos of ivory – indicating that organised networks of pangolin traffickers are piggybacking on long-established ivory-smuggling connections.

Despite recent improvements and some dedicated officers, overall enforcement in Nigeria is lax and corruption endemic, say researchers. Total prosecutions for pangolin trafficking in Nigeria amount to just four – all in the last year.

As such, seized shipments are likely to represent a small fraction of the pangolin product now moved through Nigeria. The study, published in Biological Conservation, cites experts suggesting that detected wildlife seizures are anywhere from 30% to just 2% of the overall illegal trade.

“The figures in our research suggest there has been a gross underestimation of the scale of pangolin trafficking in Nigeria and indeed Africa as a whole, which could translate into mismatched anti-trafficking policies,” said lead researcher Charles Emogor from Cambridge’s Department of Zoology.

As well as a false belief in the curative power of their scales, eating pangolin meat is considered a status symbol in parts of Asia. Pangolin bodies are illegally traded at markets across China, and some studies have implicated sale of the animal’s meat in the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.   

All eight pangolin species – four African, four Asian – are listed as threatened, with three now considered critically endangered. Researchers randomly sampled dozens of sacks impounded by customs, and estimate that some 90% of the scales involved in Nigeria-linked trade are from white-bellied pangolins.

Among the more common African species, although still classed as vulnerable by conservation agencies, white-bellied pangolins are traditionally hunted and sold in local markets. Researchers now fear that international trafficking is driving the butchery of African pangolins to dangerous new heights.   

“The levels of extraction hinted at by the hundreds of thousands of animals in seized shipments alone suggest that expanding trafficking networks driven by demand from Asia could ultimately jeopardise the survival of some African pangolin species,” said Emogor, who is also a Wildlife Conservation Society fellow.

Nigeria is signed up to various agreements that prohibit the hunting and commercial trade of pangolins, yet it has been involved in more reported trafficking incidents than any other African country.

Emogor and colleagues combed through the records of several domestic and international agencies as well as conducting interviews with Nigerian customs and intelligence officers working to try and curb wildlife trafficking.

The average mass of reported Nigeria-linked seizures increased steadily from 2010 before jumping sharply around 2017, when Nigeria secured its place as the nucleus of Africa’s pangolin trade, according to researchers. While the country initially acted as a conduit, by 2019 almost all shipments originated in Nigeria.  

Pangolin cargo was trafficked via land and air, but the majority – some 65% of all scales – was shipped by sea, with maritime smuggling increasing over the years. Some seizures occurred in warehouses where mode of transport and destination were unknown, but all those taken in transit were likely bound for Asia.   

The highest quantity of scales destined for any country or territory was Vietnam (over 64 kg), followed by China (over 48 kg) and Hong Kong (over 21 kg).

Two shipments uncovered this year had claws separated out from scales, suggesting traffickers are catering to shifting demands such as those for pangolin-claw amulets in China.

The researchers call for increased law enforcement efforts and mandatory training in the detection of illegal wildlife products for Nigerian customs officials, particularly at seaports, along with proper seizure documentation by Nigeria and surrounding nations.

“We would like to see a greater emphasis on the prosecution of apprehended traffickers as a deterrence,” added Emogor, who points out that traffickers were rarely arrested during confiscations in Nigeria, and of those that were, the vast majority had cases settled out of court.   

CAPTION

Warehouse in Nigeria containing confiscated scales

CREDIT

Charles Emogor

CAPTION

Lead researcher Charles Emogor with a descaled pangolin carcass in his right hand, and the dead body of a young white-bellied African pangolin in his left hand.

CREDIT

Charles Emogor

CAPTION

Black-bellied pangolin scales confiscated by the Nigerian Customs Service.

CREDIT

Charles Emogor

CAPTION

A white-bellied African pangolin in Nigeria's Cross River National Park

CREDIT

Charles Emogor

---

JOURNAL

Biological Conservation

DOI

10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109365 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

The scale of Nigeria's involvement in the trans-national illegal pangolin trade: Temporal and spatial patterns and the effectiveness of wildlife trade regulations

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

30-Oct-2021

Underground tests dig into how heat affects salt-bed repository behavior

Study to refine computer models, inform policymakers for future spent nuclear fuel disposal

Business Announcement

DOE/SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES

 

IMAGE: SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES RESEARCHERS MELISSA MILLS, LEFT, AND KRISTOPHER KUHLMAN PEER THROUGH A SALT SAMPLE FROM THEIR WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT EXPERIMENTAL SITE. view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO BY RANDY MONTOYA/SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — Scientists from Sandia, Los Alamos and Lawrence Berkeley national laboratories have just begun the third phase of a years-long experiment to understand how salt and very salty water behave near hot nuclear waste containers in a salt-bed repository.

Salt’s unique physical properties can be used to provide safe disposal of radioactive waste, said Kristopher Kuhlman, a Sandia geoscientist and technical lead for the project. Salt beds remain stable for hundreds of millions of years. Salt heals its own cracks and any openings will slowly creep shut.

For example, the salt at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant outside Carlsbad, New Mexico — where some of the nation’s Cold War-era nuclear waste is interred — closes on the storage rooms at a rate of a few inches a year, protecting the environment from the waste. However, unlike spent nuclear fuel, the waste interred at WIPP does not produce heat.

The Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition initiative seeks to provide a sound technical basis for multiple viable disposal options in the U.S., and specifically how heat changes the way liquids and gases move through and interact with salt, Kuhlman said. The understanding gained from this fundamental research will be used to refine conceptual and computer models, eventually informing policymakers about the benefits of disposing of spent nuclear fuel in salt beds. Sandia is the lead laboratory on the project.

“Salt is a viable option for nuclear waste storage because far away from the excavation any openings are healed up,” Kuhlman said. “However, there’s this halo of damaged rock near the excavation. In the past people have avoided predicting the complex interactions within the damaged salt because 30 feet away the salt is a perfect, impermeable barrier. Now, we want to deepen our understanding of the early complexities next to the waste. The more we understand, the more long-term confidence we have in salt repositories.”

Trial-and-error in the first experiment

To understand the behavior of damaged salt when heated, Kuhlman and colleagues have been conducting experiments 2,150 feet underground at WIPP in an experimental area more than 3,200 feet away from ongoing disposal activity. They also monitor the distribution and behavior of brine, which is salt water found within the salt bed left over from an evaporated 250-million-year old sea. The little brine that is found in WIPP is 10 times saltier than seawater.

“Salt behaves much differently when it’s hot. If you heat up a piece of granite, it isn’t that different,” Kuhlman said. “Hot salt creeps much faster, and if it gets hot enough, the water in brine could boil off leaving a crust of salt on the waste container. Then that steam could move away until it gets cool enough to return to liquid and dissolve salt, possibly forming a complex feedback loop.”

In other words, the scientists are looking at whether the heat from spent nuclear fuel could help enclose waste containers, and even protect them from the corrosion that salty water can cause.

Planning for the experiment’s first phase began in 2017, using existing horizontal holes at WIPP. During this “shakedown” phase, researchers learned what equipment to use in subsequent experiments. For example, the first heater, which worked like a toaster, did not get the nearby salt hot enough to boil brine, said Phil Stauffer, a geoscientist with an expertise in combining computer models and real-world experiments who is leading Los Alamos National Laboratory’s contributions. However, the second heater the team tried, an infrared model, was effective; it worked more like the sun.

“When we put the first radiative heater into the first borehole, as part of the shakedown phase, it turns out the air didn’t allow the heat to efficiently move into the rock,” Stauffer said. “Then we switched to an infrared heater, and the heat moved through the air with little energy loss. In the early numerical simulations, naively we just put in heat; we didn’t worry about how the heat got from the heater into the rock.”

How brine and gases move through salt

During the experiment’s second phase, the team drilled two sets of 14 horizontal holes into the side of a hall and inserted more than 100 different sensors into the holes around the central horizontal hole containing the heater. These sensors monitored the sounds, strains, humidity and temperatures as the salt was heated and cooled.

Melissa Mills, a Sandia geochemist, made a special salt-concrete seal for testing the interactions between cement and brine.

Among the sensors used were almost 100 temperature sensors, like those found in home thermostats, so researchers could measure temperature through time at locations around the heater. Yuxin Wu, a geoscientist from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, also installed fiber-optic temperature sensors, strain gauges and electrical resistivity imaging.

Charles Choens, a Sandia geoscientist, used special microphones, called acoustic-emissions sensors, to listen to the “pop” of salt crystals as they expand while heated and contract while cooling, Kuhlman said. The team used these microphones to triangulate the location of the popping salt crystals.

“Those pops are evidence of the transient permeability of the salt bed — the cracks between the salt crystals, which brine can percolate through.” Kuhlman said. “When you heat it up, it closes those little cracks. When the salt is hot, the permeability goes down, but when it cools down, the cracks temporarily open up and the permeability increases.”

To test the flow of gases through the damaged salt, the researchers injected small amounts of rare gases, such as krypton and sulfur hexafluoride, into one borehole and monitored their emergence in another, Kuhlman said. “When the salt was hot, the gases didn’t go anywhere. When we turned the heat off, the gases permeated the salt and came out in another borehole.”

Similarly, the team injected lab-made brine into one borehole with a small amount of the element rhenium and blue fluorescent dye as “tracers.” The team is monitoring for the emergence of the liquid in other boreholes, which will be sampled at the end of the test.

“The goal with the fluorescent dye — once we drill out post-test samples — is to map where the tracer went,” Mills said. “Obviously, we’ll be able to say that it went from one borehole to the other, if we detect a rhenium signal, but we won’t know the path it took. Also, brine will interact with minerals in the salt, like clay. The fluorescent dye is a visible way to identify where the liquid tracer actually went in the field.”

In the third phase, which began in mid-October, the team will be drilling a new array of nine heated boreholes, building on what they learned in the prior phases of the experiments.

Working in challenging conditions underground

The team has learned a lot from the first two phases of the experiment, including the best heater type, when to drill the boreholes and just how corrosive the brine is, Stauffer and Mills said.

“The first two phases involved a lot of equipment testing; some has failed, and some was sent back to the manufacturer,” Mills said. “We’ve also learned to keep back-up equipment on hand because salt dust and brine destroys equipment. We need to double-seal things because the brine can seep down insulated wire and then equipment dies. It’s been a process to learn how to work in the salt environment.”

Kuhlman agreed. “Many things can go wrong when you take sensitive lab equipment and put it in a salt mine. We went back and read the reports from the WIPP experiments in the ’80s. We want to learn from the past, but sometimes we have had to make our own mistakes.”

The researchers are collaborating with international partners to use the data from this project to improve computer models of the complex chemical, temperature, water-based and physical interactions that take place underground. This will improve future modeling of nuclear waste repositories globally.

Ultimately, the team would like to scale up to larger and longer experiments to obtain data relevant to future salt repositories, said Kuhlman and Stauffer. These data, supplementing already collected data, would inform repository designers and policymakers about the safety of permanently disposing heat-generating nuclear waste in salt repositories.

“It’s been really intriguing and interesting, for me, to work on a project that is so hands-on,” Mills said. “Getting to design and build the systems and going underground into WIPP has been really rewarding. Doing research in an active mine environment can be a challenge, but I’ve been proud to work down there and implement our ideas.”

CAPTION

Melissa Mills, left, a Sandia National Laboratories geochemist, and Kristopher Kuhlman a Sandia geoscientist, display salt samples from their Waste Isolation Pilot Plant experimental site. They have just begun the third phase of a yearslong basic science experiment to understand how salt and very salty water behave near hot nuclear waste containers in a salt-bed repository.

CREDIT

Photo by Randy Montoya/Sandia National Laboratories

Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration. Sandia Labs has major research and development responsibilities in nuclear deterrence, global security, defense, energy technologies and economic competitiveness, with main facilities in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Livermore, California.

BUILD AIRSHIPS

Aviation’s present-day contribution to human-induced global warming is 4% and will increase over the next 30 years should pre-Covid growth resume

Major new study reveals that aviation could consume up to one-sixth of the remaining temperature budget to limit warming to 1.5 ˚C

Peer-Reviewed Publication

IOP PUBLISHING

 

IMAGE: WARMING STRIPES OF AVIATION, SHOWING THE PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING FROM 1980 TO 2021 view more 

CREDIT: DEVELOPED AS PART OF ONGOING COLLABORATION WITH THE EUROPEAN AVIATION SAFETY AGENCY’S ENVIRONMENTAL WORK (E.G. HTTPS://EC.EUROPA.EU/TRANSPORT/SITES/DEFAULT/FILES/2019-AVIATION-ENVIRONMENTAL-REPORT.PDF)

Aviation is responsible for more global warming than implied by its carbon footprint alone. According to new research published today, aviation could consume up one-sixth of the remaining temperature budget required to limit warming to 1.5˚C by 2050. The article, published in Environmental Research Letters, suggests that emissions produced by the aviation industry must be reduced each year if the sector’s emissions are not to increase warming further.

Given that aviation is widely recognized as a sector which is challenging to decarbonise, this research aims to inform the discussion about aviation’s ‘fair share’ of future warming.

The researchers behind the study, based at the University of Oxford, Manchester Metropolitan University, and the NERC National Centre for Earth Observation, developed a simple technique for quantifying the temperature contribution of historical aviation emissions, including both CO2 and non-CO2 impacts[1]. It also projects future warming due to aviation based on a range of possible solutions to the climate crisis.

Milan Klöwer, lead author of the study said: “Our results show that aviation’s contribution to warming so far is approximately 4% and is increasing. COVID reduced the amount people fly, but there is little chance for the aviation industry to meet any climate target if it aims for a return to normal.”

The authors show that the only way to ‘freeze’ the temperature increase from the sector is to strongly decline CO2 emissions by about 2.5% per year; however, there is room for optimism as they also show that ensuring a 90% mix of low carbon sustainable fuels by 2050 would achieve a similar outcome, with no further temperature increase from the sector. But this relies on a sustainable production chain of low-carbon fuels that does not exist yet, as Milan Klöwer points out. “The aviation industry has to come up with a credible plan for a 1.5˚C world.”

“Any growth in aviation emissions has a disproportionate impact, causing lots of warming”, says Professor Myles Allen, co-author of the study. “But any decline also has a disproportionate impact in the other direction. So the good news is that we don’t actually need to all stop flying immediately to stop aviation from causing further global warming – but we do clearly need a fundamental change in direction now, and radical innovation in the future.”

Co-Author Professor David Lee, Manchester Metropolitan University, adds, “These are important results that show stylized pathways of how we can get to where we need to be with aviation emissions, robustly showing the different roles of CO2 and non-CO2 impacts. One of the important nuances is that the non-CO2 impacts, like the formation of contrails and cloudiness, have been thought to dominate the total impact: this is true at present, but it’s not widely understood in the stakeholder community that if you take care of CO2, the non-CO2 fraction decreases in importance, even more so with sustainable alternative fuels that generate fewer contrails. This emphasizes the importance of tackling aviation’s CO2 emissions.”

The aviation industry has only recently begun to tackle the warming effect of flying, and this study is timely for quantifying that impact. The solutions discussed in this study, such as moving to alternative fuels, present a clear pathway to minimising warming but these will take time to implement. In the short-term, there are actions that the industry can take right now. Dr Simon Proud, of the National Centre for Earth Observation and RAL Space, suggests, “A ban on fuel tankering - where aircraft carry more fuel than they need, and hence burn extra fuel, to save the cost of refuelling at the destination - would reduce CO2 emissions in Europe alone by almost one million tonnes.” Other solutions, such as more efficient air traffic control and minimising holding patterns at airports would also reduce emissions and help keep future warming minimal.

The research paper can be downloaded from https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac286e

---

[1] Aviation contributes to global warming from its CO2 emissions and a range of other non-CO2 effects from e.g. emissions of nitrogen oxides, water vapour and particles, that alter the chemical balance of the atmosphere and affect cloudiness, which can increase the net warming signal from aviation, as previously quantified by the authors https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834

JOURNAL

Environmental Research Letters

DOI

10.1088/1748-9326/ac286e 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Systematic review

ARTICLE TITLE

Quantifying aviation’s contribution to global warming

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

4-Nov-2021

California and Scottish leaders convene during COP26 to discuss optical sensor network to reduce emissions and improve air quality

Business Announcement

OPTICA

 

IMAGE: (SEATED FROM LEFT TO RIGHT) ANGUS ROBERTSON MSP, CABINET SECRETARY FOR THE CONSTITUTION, EXTERNAL AFFAIRS AND CULTURE; ELENI KOUNALAKIS, LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA (US). (STANDING FROM LEFT TO RIGHT) ALLISTER FERGUSON, UNIVERSITY OF STRATHCLYDE & GEMM CO-LEAD; DAVID LANG, OPTICA (FORMERLY OSA); RANDY FISER, CEO AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION; RON COHEN, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY; CRAIG MICHIE, UNIVERSITY OF STRATHCLYDE; TASHA BOERNER HORVATH, CALIFORNIA ASSEMBLYWOMAN (D-ENCINITAS); SCOTT MACGREGOR, UNIVERSITY OF STRATHCLYDE VICE-PRINCIPAL view more 

CREDIT: OPTICA (FORMERLY OSA)

GLASGOW, Scotland – Senior governmental officials from Scotland and California met today during COP26 to discuss how optical greenhouse-gas-monitoring instruments can play a key role in supporting reduced emissions in cities. California Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis and Scottish Government Cabinet Secretary for the Constitution, External Affairs and Culture Angus Robertson convened at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow to learn how real-time monitoring of greenhouse gas (GHG) and pollution emission data can provide local leaders with essential information to support strategic policy decisions.

Over the past two years, scientists and policymakers from Scotland and California have collaborated on an Urban Air Project through the Global Environmental Measurement & Monitoring (GEMM) Initiative, a joint international project of scientific societies Optica (formerly OSA) and the American Geophysical Union (AGU). The GEMM Urban Air Project centers on deploying a dense network of 25 sensors across Glasgow to monitor levels of GHGs, air pollutants and particulate matter in real-time. A similar network has been installed in the San Francisco Bay Area, using the same technology, which was created by University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) Professor Ron Cohen. This international effort is a result of a collaboration between the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow City Council, Stanford University, the UC Berkeley, Optica, the AGU, the Met Office and the National Physical Laboratory (NPL).

“Cities can make a substantial impact in GHG emissions reductions since they currently contribute more than 70% of the total. Until now, local governments have had limited access to timely data to help guide their GHG reduction policies,” said Tom Baer, GEMM co-lead and Director of Stanford Photonics Research Center at Stanford University, USA. “With these low-cost, real-time compact optical sensors deployed around the city, for the first time, leaders will have actionable science in hand to support strategic policy decisions.”

The sensor network approach uses inverse modeling based on local atmospheric circulation weather models to pinpoint the location of GHG emissions and air pollution sources in the city, throughout the day and across seasons. This localized modeling can provide first-of-its kind day-to-day neighborhood scale forecasts for cities and regions, which can be used to model future scenarios and as a way to assess current policies that aim to reduce GHG and air pollution emissions.

“Having concrete information is the first step in addressing climate action on a local level,” said Baer. “Today’s important meeting between Lieutenant Governor Kounalakis and Cabinet Secretary for the Constitution, External Affairs and Culture Robertson demonstrates how the GEMM Initiative enables leaders around the globe to take concrete action to address environmental issues in their individual communities.”

The meeting between Kounalakis and Robertson launched the GEMM Initiative’s Summit, Cities are the Key to the Climate Solution, taking place today. For more information on the GEMM Initiative, visit https://www.gemminitiative.org/ or contact GEMM@optica.org.

About Optica

Optica (formerly OSA) is dedicated to promoting the generation, application, archiving and dissemination of knowledge in optics and photonics worldwide. Founded in 1916, it is the leading organization for scientists, engineers, business professionals, students and others interested in the science and application of light. Optica’s renowned publications, meetings, online resources and in-person activities fuel discoveries, shape real-life applications and accelerate scientific, technical and educational achievement.

Media Contacts

mediarelations@optica.org

Learning more than ever, faster than ever, about what we breathe

A deeper look into not-so-thin air

Grant and Award Announcement

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - RIVERSIDE

 

IMAGE: MAP OF THE ASCENT AEROSOL MONITORING SITES view more 

CREDIT: NSF

Nobody is currently taking continuous, routine measurements of the particles suspended in America’s air, called aerosols. That is set to change as a new, nationwide monitoring network launches with a site in Riverside, California. 

When American scientists want information about the aerosols, they have to collect samples and ship them to a laboratory for analysis. The samples are typically collected every three to five days, which is suboptimal for understanding air quality events that happen more frequently.

“You want a real-time look at what’s happening, not a piecemeal puzzle picture,” said Roya Bahreini, UCR professor of atmospheric science and co-leader of the monitoring project.

Airborne particles can affect the climate, Earth’s ecosystems, and human health. Without understanding their nature — what they are, how often they appear, where they come from, their quantity and origin — efforts to mitigate them aren’t as effective. 

For these reasons, the National Science Foundation has granted $12 million for the next three years to the Atmospheric Science and mEasurement NeTwork, or ASCENT project, whose principal investigator is Nga-Lee “Sally” Ng, chemical engineering professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The network establishes state-of-the-art aerosol monitoring at 12 sites in the U.S., spread among urban and remote environments. Three of the sites are in Southern California.

Locally, Bahreini is overseeing the installation of new monitoring equipment at the South Coast Air Quality Management District’s Rubidoux monitoring site in Riverside, a good spot for gathering data about particulate matter that floats inland from the Los Angeles metro area. 

Data collected at Rubidoux, along with data from Pico Rivera and Joshua Tree National Park, will allow scientists to investigate changes in aerosol properties as they are transported away.
“We know air flows bring pollution inland,” Bahreini said. “That’s why we believe this spot will be interesting for epidemiologists who want to see how this aged air pollution is impacting the health of local people.”

With the increase in Southern California wildfires, phone apps that offer air quality information have seen a surge in popularity. However, Bahreini explains that those services offer an idea of the total concentration of aerosols, rather than specifically what they are made of, their size, or their age. 

Some instruments being installed at Rubidoux will offer data about the airborne amounts of sulfate, ammonium, nitrates, chloride, trace metals, and soot, or black carbon. Others will measure the size distribution of various aerosols. 

Differently sized aerosols can have different impacts on our health. In addition, size can indicate something about the way the particles are formed. 

“Larger-sized particles have been in the atmosphere for a while and accumulated components from other aerosols or condensable gases,” Bahreini said. “If we’re comparing aerosols in Pico Rivera to those in Riverside, we want to know their size. If they’ve grown, what has led to this growth?”

To make the data as widely available as possible, Bahreini will help train officials from the South Coast Air Quality Management District in the use of the new instruments, and a website with the real-time data from all the sites will be publicly accessible. 

Ultimately, Bahreini hopes that the ASCENT partnership and establishment of a national aerosol monitoring infrastructure will open pathways for future research by atmospheric chemistry and climate scientists, air quality modelers, and epidemiologists. 

“We are much more likely to be able to control what we can understand,” she said. “Data from this network will help us truly understand the influence of infrequent events on our air quality. Long-term trends in the data are also critical for formulating new policies to better protect human health and the climate.”
 

Study finds more than 28 million extra years of life lost in 31 countries in 2020

Rate of excess premature deaths higher in men than women; findings shed more light on the full impact of the pandemic

Peer-Reviewed Publication

BMJ

Over 28 million more years of life were lost than expected in 2020 in 31 upper-middle and high-income countries, finds a study published by The BMJ today.

Except for Taiwan, New Zealand, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and South Korea, all other countries examined had more premature deaths than expected in 2020, with a higher rate in men than women. The highest rates of excess premature deaths were in Russia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and the US.

Understanding the full impact of the covid-19 pandemic requires not only counting excess deaths (difference between observed and expected numbers of deaths from all causes), but also analysing how premature those deaths are. 

Years of life lost (YLL) measures both the number of deaths and the age at which it occurs, making it a more detailed assessment of covid-19’s impact on populations.

Using this measure, an international team of researchers, led by Dr Nazrul Islam from the Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, set out to estimate the changes in life expectancy and excess years of life lost from all causes in 2020.

They compared the observed life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 with those that would be expected based on historical trends in 2005-19 in 37 upper-middle and high-income countries.

Between 2005 and 2019, life expectancy at birth increased in both men and women in all the countries studied. 

In 2020, there was a decline in life expectancy in both men and women in all countries except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a gain in life expectancy. No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea. 

The highest decline in life expectancy (in years) was in Russia (−2.33 in men and −2.14 in women), the US (−2.27 in men and −1.61 in women), Bulgaria (−1.96 in men and −1.37 in women), Lithuania (−1.83 in men and −1.21 in women), Chile (−1.64 in men), and Spain (−1.11 in women).

Years of life lost declined in most countries in both men and women between 2005 and 2019, except Canada, Greece, Scotland, Taiwan, and the US. 

In 2020, years of life lost were higher than expected in all countries except Taiwan and New Zealand, where there was a reduction in years of life lost, and Iceland, South Korea, Denmark, and Norway, where there was no evidence of a change in years of life lost.

In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million more than expected (17.3 million in men and 10.8 million in women). 

The highest excess years of life lost (per 100,000) were in Russia (7,020 in men and 4,760 in women), Bulgaria (7,260 in men and 3,730 in women), Lithuania (5,430 in men and 2,640 in women), and the US (4,350 in men and 2,430 in women).

Overall, excess years of life lost to the covid-19 pandemic in 2020 were more than five times higher (2,510 per 100,000) than those associated with the seasonal influenza epidemic in 2015 (458 per 100,000).

The excess years of life lost were relatively low in people younger than 65 years, except in Russia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and the US where the excess years of life lost was more than 2,000 per 100,000.

The researchers acknowledge some limitations. For example, they did not include most countries from Asia, Africa, and Latin America due to a lack of data, and were unable to take account of other critically important factors, such as socioeconomic status, regional disparities, and race or ethnicity.

However, the findings are largely in line with previous studies, and their use of authoritative national mortality data, together with a validated analytical approach, suggests that the results are robust.

“Our findings of a comparable or lower than expected YLL in Taiwan, New Zealand, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and South Korea underscore the importance of successful viral suppression and elimination policies, including targeted and population based public health policy interventions,” they write.

“As many of the effects of the pandemic might take a longer time frame to have a measurable effect on human lives, continuous and timely monitoring of excess YLL would help identify the sources of excess mortality and excess YLL in population subgroups,” they conclude.

###

---

JOURNAL

BMJ

DOI

10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

3-Nov-2021

BMW’s fully electric car sales on track to double this year, but still way short of Tesla

November 3, 2021
The BMW i4 seen during a BMW press event in Garching, Bavaria, on September 29, 2021.
Matthias Balk | picture alliance | Getty Images

The BMW Group’s sales of fully electric vehicles grew by 121.4% in the first nine months of 2021, hitting 59,688 units, with the German carmaker stating Wednesday that electric mobility was “becoming an increasingly vital growth driver and success factor” for the company.

In total, the Munich-headquartered firm sold 231,575 all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles between January and September, a jump of 98.9%. By comparison, in the third quarter of 2021 alone, Elon Musk’s Tesla says it delivered 241,300 vehicles.


BMW’s electric vehicle figures were contained in an earnings report published Wednesday. Net profit for the third quarter of 2021 amounted to 2.58 billion euros ($2.99 billion), a rise of 42.4%. This was despite deliveries in its automotive segment dropping by 12.2% compared to the third quarter of 2020.

“In the third quarter 2021, operations were increasingly impacted by supply bottlenecks for semiconductor components,” the company said. “Although this resulted in production volume shortfalls and lower sales volumes during the period from July to September 2021, the impact was more than offset by positive price effects for new and pre-owned vehicles.”

Back on the EV front, the BMW Group wants fully electric vehicles to represent at least 50% of its deliveries by the year 2030.

BMW is one of several well known companies pushing an electrification strategy. In March, Volvo Cars said it planned to become a “fully electric car company” by the year 2030.

In July, the Volkswagen Group said half of its sales were expected to be battery-electric vehicles by 2030. By the year 2040, the company said almost 100% of its new vehicles in major markets should be zero-emission.

This shift to electric mobility comes at a time when major economies around the world are attempting to reduce the environmental footprint of transportation.

The U.K., for example, wants to stop the sale of new diesel and gasoline cars and vans by 2030. It will require, from 2035, all new cars and vans to have zero tailpipe emissions.

Elsewhere, the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, is targeting a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions from cars and vans by 2035.

— CNBC’s Chloe Taylor contributed to this report

Consumers in China pick their 3 favorite electric cars — and only one is Chinese

November 3, 2021 

Stephan Wollenstein, CEO of Volkswagen China, presents the new ID.6 Crozz electric car during the Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition on April 19, 2021.
Hector Retamal | AFP | Getty Images


BEIJING — When it comes to their favorite electric car brand, Chinese consumers’ top choice is Warren Buffett-backed BYD, according to a survey by Bernstein.

Elon Musk’s Tesla ranks second, and third on the list is Germany’s Volkswagen, Bernstein said. The firm cited the latest results from a regular survey of Chinese consumers in the third quarter of the last few years. This year’s survey, released Thursday, covered about 1,600 respondents.

Most of those surveyed lived in China’s larger cities, with an average age of 32 and monthly income of about 19,000 yuan ($2,969), the research firm.

Nearly half the respondents said they will consider buying an electric vehicle for their next car purchase, the report said, noting consumer preferences for lower operating costs, a better driving experience and environmental friendliness.

Intent to buy an electric car from a Chinese start-up like Nio or Xpeng doubled this year to about 9.5% of those surveyed, up from around 5% for the last few years.

Chinese start-ups ranked first in the “upper mass & premium” segment of the electric car market, which covers cars costing at least 150,000 yuan ($23,437). The next most-favored in that segment was Tesla, followed by premium German brands like BMW and Audi, the survey found.

But across cars of all categories, premium German brands ranked first, followed by Japanese brands Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, and Chinese brands including BYD and Geely, the report said. Electric car start-ups ranked sixth in this category.

China is the world’s largest auto market and many European car companies are making the country the starting point in their push into electric vehicles.

Volkswagen generates about 41% of its sales volume in China, according to Goldman Sachs.

Porsche counts China as its largest single market and reported 11% growth in the first three quarters of the year from the same period a year ago. During that time on a global basis, the German luxury automaker said its recently introduced electric Taycan model outsold its flagship 911 sports car.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M BANK ROBBERY

Wells Fargo warns investors that the bank is likely to face more regulatory setbacks

CNBC

NOV 3,2021

Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf listens during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, Calif., on April 30, 2019.
Kyle Grillot | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Wells Fargo isn’t out of the woods yet when it comes to its regulatory mess.

That’s the message the bank sent in its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission this week. Wells Fargo said it is “likely to experience issues or delays” in satisfying demands from multiple U.S. regulators – a subtle, but meaningful shift in language from earlier filings where the bank said it “may” experience delays.

The development means that the most significant regulatory constraint on Wells Fargo — a Federal Reserve edict forcing the bank to keep its balance sheet frozen at 2017 levels — could take even longer to resolve, JPMorgan analyst Vivek Juneja said Wednesday in a research note.

“The key risk is that any further issues or delays would increase scrutiny and could further delay the asset cap getting lifted,” Juneja said in the note, citing comments from Fed chairman Jerome Powell that the asset cap won’t be lifted until compliance issues are resolved. Expenses tied to the regulatory overhaul could remain higher for longer, the analyst said.

The disclosure shows that CEO Charles Scharf, who took over two years ago, is still consumed with cleaning up the mess revealed by the bank’s 2016 fake accounts scandal. In September, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency hit the bank with a $250 million fine tied to its mortgage division.

Scharf told analysts last month that the latest fine indicates that despite resolving a pair of consent orders, the company is “likely to have setbacks” over the next few years as the CEO and his deputies work to improve the firm’s compliance functions.

When an analyst pressed for more information on the setbacks, Scharf noted the complex set of consent orders the bank was working on.

“I just want to make sure that people understand that we have these things that are out there, and don’t want you to be surprised if something happens,” Scharf said.

A Wells Fargo spokesperson declined to comment beyond the filing. Shares of the bank have surged more than 70% this year amid a broader rebound in financial companies.

With assistance from CNBC’s Michael Bloom