Friday, February 17, 2023

 Using spiders as environmentally-friendly pest control

Groups of spiders could be used as an environmentally-friendly way to protect crops against agricultural pests. New research suggests that web-building groups of spiders can eat a devastating moth of commercially important crops like tomato and potato.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF PORTSMOUTH

Large web of the group-living spider Cyrtophora citricola 

IMAGE: LARGE WEB OF THE GROUP-LIVING SPIDER CYRTOPHORA CITRICOLA view more 

CREDIT: DR LENA GRINSTED

Groups of spiders could be used as an environmentally-friendly way to protect crops against agricultural pests.

That's according to new research, led by the University of Portsmouth, which suggests that web-building groups of spiders can eat a devastating pest moth of commercially important crops like tomato and potato worldwide.

The tomato leafminer moth, Tuta absoluta,has developed resistance to chemical insecticides, which cause human and environmental damage, so different approaches, like using natural predators such as spiders, are needed to combat infestations. 

The researchers explored the use of tropical tent web spiders, Cyrtophora citricola, as pest control, as these spiders form groups and are not cannibalistic, and they create large webs to capture prey.

In lab settings, different types of prey - the small tomato leafminer, flightless fruit flies (Drosophila hydei) and larger black soldier flies (Hermetia illucens) - were introduced to colonies of spiders of varying body sizes. Researchers found that larger spiders built larger webs and generally caught more prey, and they easily caught and ate the tomato leafminer and fruit flies, while the larger black soldier flies were rarely caught. 

Dr Lena Grinsted, Senior Lecturer in Zoology in the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Portsmouth, and lead author of the study, said: “Our findings suggest that tropical tent web spiders have the potential to be an effective biological control agent of flying insect pests, at least after growing to medium-sized juveniles.

“Because they have evolved the ability to live in groups, these spiders might be better suited for biological control than more aggressive, solitary spiders that are prone to cannibalism. 

“Spiders that can form groups of hundreds, or even thousands, of interconnected webs can provide large surface areas of capture webs capable of intercepting high frequencies of airborne insects. Spider colonies also provide a substrate for other spider species, further increasing the number of predators and therefore, potentially increasing pest insect capture capability within colonies.”

Climate change due to human overpopulation and fossil fuel dependence is facilitating the spread of invasive pest species of agricultural crops, such as the tomato leafminer, by expanding their habitable environment ranges.

Tropical tent web spiders are found in colonies around the world and their global range overlaps with regions of moth infestations, including Mediterranean Europe, Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, whose environmental health and economic stability could greatly benefit from this sustainable agricultural approach. Also, as these spiders are already found in these regions, the introduction of pest control spiders will be unlikely to significantly damage native biodiversity.

The researchers further investigated the seasonal variations in web sizes in southern Spain, and found that pest control would be most effective in the tomato planting and growing season in May and June. 

However, they found that a wasp species (Philolema palanichamyi) found in the region, whose larvae eat spider eggs, could be detrimental to the spider colony. The researchers found that about half of the spider egg sacs were infected with zero surviving spiderlings.

Dr Grinsted added: “If wasp infections are controlled, these spiders could form an important part of an integrated pest management system. This could potentially lead to a reduction of reliance on chemical pesticides, resulting in reduced pollutants in soils, waterways, and food chains in the future. 

“Future studies are now needed to investigate whether the spiders may negatively impact crop pollination by also catching and feeding on bees and other key pollinators.”

The study, published in the journal Insects, involved researchers from the universities of Portsmouth and Nottingham, and Ben-Gurion University of the Negev in Israel.

Leipzig researchers develop efficient process for chemical terpene synthesis

Potential applications in food, cosmetics and pharmaceutical industries

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITÄT LEIPZIG

illustration: the catalyst – the cat 

IMAGE: IN THE ILLUSTRATION, THE CATALYST – THE CAT – GIVES A CARBON CHAIN A PERSISTENT FORM, WHICH IS REPRESENTED BY THE CLAMPS. IN REALITY, THE STRONGLY BINDING SOLUTION ACTS AS A CATALYST IN WHICH HYDROGEN ATOMS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY FLUORINE ATOMS. THE “GLUE” IS THE REACTION. view more 

CREDIT: DR CHRISTOPH SELG

A team of scientists led by Professor Tanja Gulder at Leipzig University’s Institute of Organic Chemistry, together with colleagues from the University of Regensburg, has developed a simplified and efficient method for the artificial production of terpenes. Terpenes are a very extensive and diverse class of natural products that perform a wide range of functions in nature and are also used industrially. Until now, producing them has required a wide variety of starting scenarios, some with harsh conditions, or has been based on substances taken from nature. The new method, on the other hand, follows a flexible and resource-saving modular principle. This allows the targeted production of these important natural substances from simple and readily available starting materials. To do this, the team replicated naturally occurring enzymatic processes using fluorinated alcohol / catalyst solutions. The method can be used widely in existing laboratories. The research findings have now been published in Nature Communications.

Wide range of terpenes in nature

Terpenes are what give pine needles their scent, and beer and orangeade their taste. They play a key role in how living things like insects, but also we humans, communicate, and in defence mechanisms, for instance in plants against animal predators, fungi and bacteria. In human biology, terpenes also play an important role in metabolic processes. 

Terpenes have long been used industrially on a large scale: in the production of foodstuffs and food supplements, in perfumes, and in pharmaceuticals, such as cancer and COVID-19 drugs. “We need quite a lot of tonnes of a wide variety of terpenes every year, and that means we also have to be able to produce them synthetically in an efficient and sustainable way – and that’s a big problem,” says Professor Tanja Gulder, who holds the professorship for Biomimetic Catalysis at Leipzig University.

In nature, enzymes form terpenes through targeted folding

“Nature has a unique way of making each of these molecular compounds,” says Gulder. “This involves the use of so-called terpene cyclases, proteins with 100 to 1,000 amino acids. These enzymes press simple and mobile carbon chains into a specific three-dimensional form that determines the appearance of the product,” Gulder adds. Once the reaction has taken place, the shape of the respective terpene remains unchangeable. The reaction takes place in what is known as an enzyme pocket in the active centre of the enzyme, which carries a blueprint of the form to be produced. After the reaction is complete, the enzyme releases the finished product and the process is repeated with the next building block. “It can be thought of as a fast-moving molecular manufacturing machine,” says Gulder. 

Atomic details matter

There are terpenes that are similar in terms of the type and number of their atomic compounds – but whose spatial arrangements are different. “In a simple case, such atomic differences determine whether something tastes like caraway or orange,” says Gulder. However, such differences could also mean that one terpene acts completely differently in the human organism than the other. Errors here can have fatal consequences. “And depending on the way the carbon chains are put into the enzyme pocket, different terpenes come out, which is also part of the complexity in nature,” explains Gulder.

Extraction difficult so far

The researcher points out that previous approaches to recreating terpenes in the lab required very different and harsh initial conditions, such as a highly acidic environment or low temperatures, adding that this is neither effective nor environmentally friendly for large-scale production. The extraction of terpenes from organisms such as plants, animals and fungi has also reached its limits. “You can’t cut down all the Pacific yews to isolate taxol for a cancer drug. It would take the bark of twelve mature specimens of this not-very-widespread tree species to make one gram of the active ingredient,” says Gulder. At the moment, a precursor of the desired terpene is extracted from needles of another tree species and then processed further.

“So we wanted to see how we could replicate nature’s processes in a test tube and achieve the greatest possible flexibility and efficiency.”

The solution: Liquid construction kit with fluorinated alcohol

The team succeeded in building a custom-fit, enzyme-like environment for the formation of terpenes, consisting of readily available chemical substances. This can work like a construction kit: by adding different starting materials and additives that act as catalysts, different terpenes can be produced artificially.

At the heart of the new approach are the properties of fluorinated alcohol: “We had found that when hydrogen atoms in alcohols were replaced with fluorine atoms, the resulting fluorinated alcohol exhibited extreme bonding forces. In such solutions, molecules form helices or rings that stack up to form tubes,” explains Professor Gulder. By adding chemicals, it is possible to influence the size and shape of these structures.

“Basically, we have built an artificial enzyme pocket in the form of a structured solution into which our respective starting material can fold. As in nature, forms persist after the reaction.”

Computer simulations were also used to develop this new method. Professor Tanja Gulder explains: “Our colleagues Philipp Dullinger and Professor Dominik Horinek of the University of Regensburg calculated which three-dimensional structures, so which shapes, the alcohols form with the additives used in each case. This was important to identify suitable catalysts that would lead us to the desired terpenes.”

Realisable in standard chemistry laboratories

The method does not require any additional infrastructure, it can be applied in chemistry laboratories at no additional cost, and can be easily scaled up for application to large-scale production. What is more, the process requires no heavy or precious metals. “This makes it broadly applicable and more sustainable than previous methods,” explains Gulder, who was previously a Heisenberg professor at the Technical University of Munich. “It is an example of the forward-looking research focus on multifunctional catalysis at Leipzig University, and at the CTC major research centre that has just been approved in the Leipzig area.” Its focus will be on sustainable catalysis in an industrial context.

Professor Tanja Gulder

CREDIT

Swen Reichhold, Leipzig University

Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekA

New technology revolutionizes the analysis of old ice

Thanks to a new method developed by researchers at the University of Bern and Empa, greenhouse gas concentrations in 1.5 million year old ice can be measured even more accurately

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF BERN

Drone Footage of the Beyond EPICA Reasearch Camp 

Drone Footage of the Beyond EP [VIDEO] | EurekAlert! Science News Releases

CREDIT: © PNRA/IPEV

Ice cores are a unique climate archive. Thanks to a new method developed by researchers at the University of Bern and Empa, greenhouse gas concentrations in 1.5 million year old ice can be measured even more accurately. The EU project “Beyond EPICA” with the participation of the University of Bern aims to recover such old ice in Antarctica.

The search for the oldest ice on earth has taken an important step forward. The Beyond EPICA – Oldest Ice project, a European consortium that includes the University of Bern, completed its second field season at the end of January. The drilling reached a depth of 808 meters. The project objective is to look back 1.5 million years into the past and obtain data on the development of temperature, the composition of the atmosphere and the carbon cycle. A depth of around 2700 meters must be reached in the Antarctic ice sheet and an ice core recovered. If everything goes as planned, this should be the case in 2025. Only then will the complex analysis of the oldest ice in this core follow, which new methods are currently being developed for.

The University of Bern plays a crucial role in the development of the new analysis technologies. The team led by Hubertus Fischer, professor of experimental climate physics and member of the Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research has succeeded, in collaboration with Empa, in developing a new technique to jointly measure the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) as well as the carbon isotope composition of CO2. The ice sample needed for this is with a thickness of just one centimeter very small, yet the highest accuracy is possible in the measurement. “These are important prerequisites,” explains Hubertus Fischer, “for obtaining high-precision, high-resolution records from the oldest ice in Beyond EPICA.” In the 1.5 million year old ice, 15,000 to 20,000 years of climate history are compressed into just one meter of ice core, which places completely new demands on ice core analyzes. Ice cores are an extremely important climate archive because only they contain the air of the past to directly measure past greenhouse gas concentrations.

Perfect recycling of precious ice samples

The new method has just been published in the journal Atmospheric Measurement Techniques. The Bern Group worked closely with Empa researchers on the technical development for this. The team led by Lukas Emmenegger, head of Empa’s “Air Pollutants/Environmental Technology” department, developed a new laser spectrometer that can measure greenhouse gases on a sample of just 1.5 milliliters of air. "Achieving this high precision in such small samples was hardly imaginable for a long time. We are proud that this makes it possible to study the valuable ice cores," says Emmenegger. At the University of Bern, in turn, the new sublimation extraction system was devised and built that makes it possible to obtain such small air samples continuously and without contamination from an ice core. Thanks to this pioneering work, says Hubertus Fischer, it will be possible to take greenhouse gas measurements with the necessary precision and temporal resolution in such old ice.

Using the sublimation technique developed in Bern, an ice core sample can be slowly transformed from the top to the bottom from the solid to gaseous state. Individual samples are collected at centimeter resolution by freezing the air at -258°C during the continuous sublimation process. This technique ensures one hundred percent extraction efficiency. Another advantage of the method: the air extracted from the ice samples is not lost during the measurement in the laser spectrometer, instead it can be used for further analyzes afterwards. Hubertus Fischer speaks of “perfect recycling” and says: “The huge amount of work we have to put into the analysis would never be justifiable for an ordinary ice core.” It is for the 1.5 million year old ice though, as this the amount of old ice is extremely limited. Hubertus Fischer received a grant for cutting-edge research from the European Research Council (“ERC Advanced Grant”) as well as project funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation to realize these groundbreaking developments.

Drilling campaign under extreme climatic conditions

Hubertus Fischer is one of the main players in the Beyond EPICA – Oldest Ice project. An analysis of the Beyond EPICA ice core should contribute to a better understanding of the alternation between warm periods and the ice ages. Around a million years ago, there was a dramatic change in this back and forth – as shown by studies of marine sediments. In the time before around 900,000 years ago, ice ages and warm phases alternated every 40,000 years, afterwards only every 100,000 years. Why this change occurred is a mystery, but climate researchers suspect that greenhouse gases, among other things, played a crucial role. This assumption is now to be investigated by the ice core drilling in Antarctica, which goes back almost twice as far as the oldest Antarctic ice core analyzed so far.

In the project’s second drilling season, which has just ended, the international team worked for two months under extreme conditions. There were unforeseen setbacks such as repairs to the drilling system and delays due to poor weather conditions. Drilling was carried out in two shifts in 16-hour operation. The Little Dome C drilling site is located 34 kilometers from the French-Italian Concordia research station. At this expedition base station, the two Bernese researchers Markus Grimmer and Florian Krauss were tasked with cutting the ice cores into transportable pieces using a special saw developed by the University of Bern.

Information about the publication: 

Lars Mächler, Daniel Baggenstos, Florian Krauss, Jochen Schmitt, Bernhard Bereiter, Remo Walther, Christoph Reinhard, Béla Tuzson, Lukas Emmenegger, and Hubertus Fischer, Atmospheric Measurement Techniques: Laser-induced sublimation extraction for centimeter-resolution multi-species greenhouse gas analysis on ice cores, 16, 355-372, 2023,

DOI: 10.5194/amt-16-355-2023

Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research

The Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR) is one of the strategic centers of the University of Bern. It brings together researchers from 14 institutes and four faculties. The OCCR conducts interdisciplinary research at the cutting edge of climate change research. The Oeschger Center was founded in 2007 and bears the name of Hans Oeschger (1927-1998), a pioneer of modern climate research, who worked in Bern.

Further information: www.oeschger.unibe.ch

A freshly drilled ice core is measured.

The ice cores cut into pieces are ready for transport to Europe.


CREDIT

© PNRA/IPEV

Sublimation extraction of ice samples, here with the vacuum vessel open. The technique developed at the University of Bern makes it possible to obtain the tiniest air samples continuously and without contamination from an ice core. This will make it possible to take greenhouse gas measurements with the necessary precision and temporal resolution in 1.5 million year old ice.

Prof. Dr. Hubertus Fischer, Physics Institute, Climate and Environmental Physics, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research OCCR, University of Bern

CREDIT

© KUP, Universität Bern


CBD shows promise for reducing cigarette smoking

Peer-Reviewed Publication

WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY

SPOKANE, Wash. – Cannabidiol or CBD, a non-psychoactive component of cannabis, inhibits the metabolism of nicotine, new research has found, meaning it could help tobacco users curb the urge for that next cigarette.

A team led by Washington State University researchers tested the effects of CBD and its major metabolite on human liver tissue and cell samples, showing that it inhibited a key enzyme for nicotine metabolism. For the nicotine-addicted, slowing metabolism of the drug could allow them to wait before feeling the need to inhale more of it along with all the other harmful things found in cigarette smoke.

More research is needed to confirm these effects in humans and determine dosage levels, but these findings show promise, said Philip Lazarus, WSU professor of pharmaceutical sciences.

“The whole mission is to decrease harm from smoking, which is not from the nicotine per se, but all the carcinogens and other chemicals that are in tobacco smoke,” said Lazarus, senior author on the study published in the journal Chemical Research in Toxicology. “If we can minimize that harm, it would be a great thing for human health.”

Cigarette smoking is still a major health problem with one in five people in the U.S. dying every year from smoking-related causes. While often seen as less harmful, many other nicotine delivery methods including vaping, snuff and chew also contain chemicals that can cause cancer and other illnesses.

In this study, the researchers tested CBD and its major metabolite, meaning what it converts to in the body, 7-hyroxycannabidiol, on microsomes from human liver tissue as well as on microsomes from specialized cell lines that allowed them to focus on individual enzymes related to nicotine metabolism.

They found that CBD inhibited several of these enzymes, including the major one for nicotine metabolism, identified as CYP2A6. Other research has found that more than 70% of nicotine is metabolized by this enzyme in the majority of tobacco users. The impact of CBD on this particular enzyme appeared quite strong, inhibiting its activity by 50% at relatively low CBD concentrations.

“In other words, it appears that you don't need much CBD to see the effect,” said Lazarus.

Lazarus’ team is currently developing a clinical study to examine the effects of CBD on nicotine levels in smokers, measuring nicotine levels in their blood versus smokers taking a placebo over the course of six to eight hours. Then, they hope to do a much larger study looking at CBD and nicotine addiction.

In addition to Lazarus, co-authors on the current study include first author Shamema Nasrin, Shelby Coates, Keti Bardhi and Christy Watson of WSU College of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences as well as Joshua Muscat of Penn State Cancer Institute. This research was supported by a National Institutes of Health grant.

Tsunami in a water glass

Chemistry

Peer-Reviewed Publication

RUHR-UNIVERSITY BOCHUM

Fabio Novelli, Martina Havenith and Claudius Hoberg 

IMAGE: FABIO NOVELLI, MARTINA HAVENITH AND CLAUDIUS HOBERG (FROM LEFT) WERE ABLE TO OBSERVE THE BIRTH OF AN ELECTRON DISSOLVED IN WATER LIVE IN RESOLV. view more 

CREDIT: © RUB, MARQUARD

So-called hydrated electrons play a major role in many physical, chemical and biological processes. They are not bound to an atom or molecule and are free in the solution. Since they are only ever created as an intermediate product, they are extremely short-lived. The team from the Cluster of Excellence Ruhr Explores Solvation RESOLV at Ruhr University Bochum was able to observe for the first time in a novel experiment how the hydrated electron affects the solution during its lifetime. The researchers led by Professor Martina Havenith-Newen report in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of 15 February 2023.

The simplest anion

"As the simplest anion, hydrated electrons represent a model system that is relevant in a multitude of radical chemical processes", says Martina Havenith-Newen, describing the importance of the study object. "For example, it plays an important role in energy transfer during photo- and electrochemical phenomena, in atmospheric chemistry, in radiation damage of biological substances and in medical therapy." This has earned the hydrated electron the ongoing attention of experimental and theoretical groups for several decades.

RESOLV researchers have set up a novel experiment to follow the formation and temporal evolution of the hydrated electron from the perspective of the solvent: "Immediately after its generation by means of an intense laser beam, we were able to observe a delocalised electron", Martina Havenith-Newen describes. The charge distribution extends over 20 angstroms. Within 500 femtoseconds, the charge is localised and a surprisingly stable localised electron emerges, whose fingerprint in the water network the researchers were able to observe for the first time due to the sensitivity of the experiment in the terahertz range.

"In addition, we could observe a water quake or a tsunami", says Martina Havenith-Newen. The team was able to demonstrate that this phenomenon is caused by the sudden charge separation during the formation of the hydrated electron. In contrast to atomic, negatively charged ions, the water network in the immediate vicinity is looser and not more stable. This means that the individual water molecules in the immediate vicinity of the electron can move more freely than in the water. "This smallest anion therefore takes on a special role", sums up Martina Havenith-Newen.

Cooperation partners

The work was carried out in collaboration with Prof. Dr Teresa Head-Gordon from Berkeley, whose group carried out the molecular dynamics simulations.

Dog puppies spontaneously match human actions, while kittens and wolf pups …not so much…

Puppies - but not kittens and wolf pups - tend to spontaneously imitate human actions, even when they are not rewarded with food (or toys).

Peer-Reviewed Publication

EÖTVÖS LORÁND UNIVERSITY (ELTE), FACULTY OF SCIENCE

Dog nose action matching trial 

IMAGE: THE RESEARCHERS OF THE DEPARTMENT OF ETHOLOGY AT EÖTVÖS LORÁND UNIVERSITY, BUDAPEST, INVESTIGATED WHETHER YOUNG PUPPIES, KITTENS AND WOLF PUPS HAVE DIFFERENT TENDENCIES TO OBSERVE AND IMITATE WHAT A PERSON DID, WITHOUT ANY PRE-TRAINING AND FOOD REWARD. view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO: CLAUDIA FUGAZZA

According to a new study published in Scientific Reports puppies - but not kittens and wolf pups - tend to spontaneously imitate human actions, even when they are not rewarded with food (or toys). The researchers of the Department of Ethology at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE), Budapest, investigated whether young puppies, kittens and wolf pups have different tendencies to observe and imitate what a person did, without any pre-training and food reward.

Doing what others do in a new situation is a convenient way for young individuals to learn about the world. The tendency to copy the behaviour of others is not only useful to learn new skills or new information, but is also a way of promoting belonging to a social group.

Dogs, cats and wolves differ in their domestication histories and innate sociality,

which may influence their tendency to observe humans and learn socially from them.

The scientists first checked how 42 puppies, 39 kittens and 8 wolf pups, all socialized and living in human families, acted with a novel object placed in a room (e.g., touching it with the nose or paw). Next, while the owner was holding the subject, the experimenter demonstrated a different action on the object. For example, if the subject previously touched the object with its nose, then the experimenter touched it with her hand. Then the researchers observed whether the subject eventually performed the same action on the object.

“Since paying attention to the demonstration is a fundamental requisite for social learning, we first assessed whether the puppies, kittens and wolf pups looked at us when we performed the demonstration”, explains Claudia Fugazza, lead researcher of the group.

“While typically the puppies looked at us almost immediately, it took four-five times longer to get the attention of wolf pups and kittens”.

Puppies and wolf pups replicated the demonstrated actions in ca. 70% of the trials, twice as often as kittens, but only the puppies tended to imitate the action with a body part homologue to the human experimenter (e.g., paw – hand), even if that action differed from the action they performed when they had not observed a demonstration.

“Typically, most subjects touched the object with their nose, when they had not observed a demonstration. However, after observing the experimenter touching the object with her hand, the puppies tended to touch it using their paw”, reports Stefania Uccheddu, co-author of the study. Kittens and wolf pups did not copy the action.

The results seem to support the effect of both investigated factors - inherent sociality and domestication history: “While dogs’ and wolves’ ancestor was a group-living, social animal, with intense within-group cooperation for survival, cats’ ancestor was a solitary hunter”, explains Andrea Temesi, co-author of the study.

“Both, dogs and cats are domesticated species that today live in human families, but the dog was domesticated much earlier than the cat

(between 20000-40000 years vs. 10000 years ago) and dogs were selected for several forms of cooperation with humans. Cats had a different domestication process; they hunted mice and rats in the human environment, but did not have to cooperate or communicate with humans”, continues Márta Gácsi, co-author of the study.

Thus, it is not surprising that only puppies have developed the tendency to pay close attention to people and imitate their actions, even if there is no specific reason for doing so, such as getting food.

These results are intriguing, not only from a theoretical perspective, but also from an applied point of view:

“We believe that our findings can form the basis for the development of novel training methods

that rely on the tendency of puppies to learn by observation and to imitate human actions. This way, dog training can be less dependent on the use of food rewards and more able to take advantage of dogs’ natural propensity for social learning”, concludes Ákos Pogány.


The researchers of the Department of Ethology at Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, investigated whether young puppies, kittens and wolf pups have different tendencies to observe and imitate what a person did, without any pre-training and food reward.

The researchers of the Department of Ethology at Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, investigated whether young puppies, kittens and wolf pups have different tendencies to observe and imitate what a person did, without any pre-training and food reward.

CREDIT

Photo: Claudia Fugazza

New UC San Diego model predicts housing prices to fall as much as 18% this year

Study finds internet search data can be used as an early indicator of where the market is going

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - SAN DIEGO

National Housing Price Predictions 

IMAGE: NATIONAL HOUSING PRICE PREDICTIONS view more 

CREDIT: UC SAN DIEGO RADY SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT

A new model of forecasting home prices based on consumer demand predicts that prices for housing will decrease by 5% nationally and 12% in San Diego County by the end of this year. The model, which highlights online search activity, was recently published in a new study from the University of California San Diego’s Rady School of Management.

The model’s predictions have proved to have accuracy rate of up to 70% and are unique to other price predictors — such as Zillow, Goldman Sachs and Redfin —because those consider a variety of factors like interest rates, wage growth, unemployment and housing supply. Whereas the housing search index created by Allan Timmermann of the Rady School and collaborators at Arhus University in Denmark, focuses on consumer demand by tracking the rate at which prospective buyers use the internet to search for homes.

 “It is one of the purest measures of potential demand that you can get because the first thing you do when you're looking for a house or interested in buying a house, is to go to the internet and look at what is available,” said Timmermann, a distinguished professor of finance at the Rady School. “Those in the market for a home leave a big footprint with their online search activity because of the time it takes – often several months – to find something that is the right fit.”

Cities like San Diego have housing prices dropping more than the national average because it’s where the market overheated the most during the pandemic, Timmermann said.

“What you saw following the lockdowns in March 2020 was that sunshine and suburbs became a big thing,” Timmermann said. “People were shifting to working from home, so they wouldn't have to be located close to the job and then they might cut out of their area altogether, choosing to live somewhere with more space and better weather. San Diego has plenty of suburbs and desirable weather, of course.”

These traits plus limited supply caused prices to skyrocket across the county, but the market has cooled by 2.5% since May of 2022 when prices peaked.

“Many households got priced out of the market so now we are seeing levels adjust,” Timmermann said.

But home prices in other cities are expected to fall even more. Phoenix, AZ, is predicted to have the biggest drop at 18%. Other metropolitan areas where prices are predicted to be on the decline include Stockton-Lodi, CA (down 13%), Las Vegas, NV (down 13%), followed by San Diego and Tucson, AZ. The cities with the most price stability include the metropolitan area of Scranton-Wilkes-Barre-Hazleton, PA and Kansas City, MO both predicted to rise by 2%. Other cities with forecasts of stable prices include Hartford, CT, Harrisburg, PA and Omaha, NE.

Timmermann added that the predictive power of internet searches tends to be a reliable indicator of where the market is going over the short-to-medium term as fluctuations in demand matter more than changes in supply, which tends to be quite stable over shorter horizons.

One major difference between the UC San Diego model for forecasting home prices and other, commercial price predictors is that the data underlying in the housing search index isn’t proprietary. The methodology is fully transparent and replicable as the study, published in Management Science, is public, so anyone can see how it works.

The formula starts with tracking key words such as “buying a house” and related search terms in Google Trends--a free website that analyzes the popularity of top search queries in Google Search. These data are compared to data on home tours and written offers, which allows the researchers to forecast prices in the short and long term.

“The cost of your time and the intensity with which you search and the number of people searching really does reflect the underlying interest in home buying,” Timmermann said. “At the end of the day, the higher the demand, the higher home prices will typically be.”

Coauthors of the Management Science paper include Stig Møller, Thomas Pedersen and Christian Schütte of at Arhus University.

The read the full paper, "Search and Predictability of Prices in the Housing Market," go to this link.