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It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
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Alibaba’s overhaul: a ‘smart’ move after China crackdown
By AFP
March 29, 2023
Alibaba has said it will split its $220 billion empire into six businesses
Instant View: Alibaba to split into six units
(Reuters) - Alibaba Group Holding Ltd said it plans split its business into six main units covering e-commerce, media and the cloud, adding that each will explore fundraising or initial public offerings.
Alibaba's U.S.-listed shares rose 7% in pre-market trading.
Here are comments from analysts: THOMAS HAYES, CHAIRMAN AT GREAT HILL CAPITAL, NEW YORK
"This is the ultimate value unlock and this is going to enable the sum of the parts valuation to be realised much more quickly as you'll have faster growing business segments that will ultimately be awarded much higher multiple by the market when they're either IPO or spun to shareholders.
"It also takes any residual regulatory overhang off the table as six smaller species pieces can fly under the radar, versus one behemoth."
OSHADHI KUMARASIRI, ANALYST AT LIGHTSTREAM RESEARCH, WHO PUBLISHES ON SMARTKARMA
"I think Alibaba is pursuing easier regulation by splitting its business into six entities. This could potentially allow each entity to operate under a more manageable regulatory framework, rather than having one large entity that may be subject to more stringent regulations.
"It is likely that the geopolitical risks associated with Alibaba will persist as long as the tensions between China and the U.S. continue to exist. However, this split would allow investors to pick and choose areas where that risk is at the lowest."
SUSANNAH STREETER, HEAD OF MONEY AND MARKETS AT UK-BASED HARGREAVES LANSDOWN
"The break-up would allow Alibaba to raise external investment and grow its cloud business. Alibaba would be able to more easily unlock value in the cloud business and be less weighed down by the more cumbersome nature of a sprawling empire."
"Hong Kong would be the priority (for IPOs), given how things stand at the moment."
DANIEL TU, FOUNDER OF ACTIVE CREATION CAPITAL, HONG KONG
"Alibaba has suffered a couple of tough years and faced slowing economic growth at home. That has resulted in considerable losses in its share price and valuation. Furthermore, it has struggled with growth in the past few quarters. Therefore, the reorganisation is an attempt to reinvigorate growth.
"With Jack Ma and many of the original partners no longer with the company, the question for some will be whether the culture and resiliency the co-founders once built are still embedded in today's leadership team in order for them to successively carry out the reorganisation and the long-term competitiveness of the six business units."
ALFREDO MONTUFAR-HELU, HEAD OF THE CONFERENCE BOARD'S CHINA CENTRE, BEIJING
"From Alibaba's side, the restructuring will do a lot in terms of clearing the way for it to continue growing. Each of the six units operate in different areas, and therefore must respond to different sets of regulations.
"For instance, separating the logistics business from the cloud business should be better for the former because the data security requirements on cloud are stricter. And of course cloud business executives are better placed at responding to these requirements."
ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT B RILEY WEALTH, BOSTON
"When you get to a certain size and have multiple different disciplines inside your business model, it's hard to have ascribed the value that would be the sum of the parts.
"Alibaba planned to split into six different units to ascribe an appropriate value to each of its different units; likely makes sense if they're able to pull this off."
XIAOYAN WANG, ANALYST AT 86RESEARCH
"We believe that the separation of Alibaba's businesses is a good thing for its stock price as it will unlock value and make each business more flexible and competitive.
"As for regulation, we think it's also a positive development. After the businesses are spun off from Alibaba, the regulatory risks they face may actually decrease, rather than being subject to Jack Ma's personal risk. This will make it easier for investors to assess regulatory risks more clearly."
DAVID BLENNERHASSETT, ANALYST AT BALLINGAL INVESTMENT ADVISORS
"This somewhat mirrors Alphabet's path, in which it also became a Holdco for a number of operations. Sounds like a sound practice for the siloed ops to independently carve out their own brand/narrative, if you will, IPO and uplift funds to the parent.
"Although this may provide added granularity to Alibaba's various businesses, it doesn't necessarily translate Alibaba is more attractive if it continues to control each segment - or holding minority/equity-accounting stakes and the market assigns discounts on discounts.
"I do wonder if there is some regulatory angle here, ringfencing some outfits that may face greater scrutiny. Interesting timing as this announcement coincides with Ma visiting China again."
STUART COLE, HEAD MACRO ECONOMIST AT EQUITI CAPITAL, LONDON
"I am not sure how quickly Alibaba could be broken up. I am sure they have done some work on this before announcing it, but it seems quite a large job to create six companies out of one. But it does inject an element of flexibility and adaptability into the company, which currently is something of a behemoth.
"And it will allow the more successful of the six new companies to potentially raise finance more easily and cheaply than the parent company can as they will not be burdened by the slower, less profitable parts of the business. So for investors, they get the opportunity to put their funds in the parts they like whilst avoiding the parts they do not, unlike the current situation.
"It does seem something of a coincidence that this is happening just as Jack Ma seems comfortable returning. To me, it suggests something that Alibaba has been wanting to do for some time, but has been waiting for the opportunity to do so."
KENNY NG, STRATEGIST AT CHINA EVERBRIGHT SECURITIES, HONG KONG
"It releases additional value. With this expectation, investors will be more positive on Alibaba. It may reflect a new round of development for the business and reduce worries of regulatory issues."
(Reporting by Yuvraj Malik, Selena Li, Eduardo Baptista, Johann Cherian, Scott Murdoch, Shashwat Chauhan, Josh Ye, Kane Wu and Tom Westbrook; Compiled by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Louise Heavens, Andrew Heavens and David Goodman)
China’s after-school education industry was caught flat-footed after Beijing rolled out a policy in mid-2021 that outlawed most after-school classes for K-12 students in an effort to reduce inequality in education.
The ban — which covered both online and in-person instruction — effectively sent the industry into survival mode as companies sought to replace the revenue they lost from classes they were no longer allowed to offer. E-commerce offered one potential path. Last year, New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc., once a heavyweight in English language education in China, made headlines when it began running live-streaming sessions in English to hawk products like books and food. Other private education companies started taking their own products right to the consumer. In the year and a half since the industry shake-up, most companies that once specialized in K-12 tutoring began selling items like smart table lamps and e-printers, with many offering a line of devices called “learning tablets.”
Beyond just another revenue source, these premium-priced devices have provided companies like Shanghai Liulishuo Information Technology Co. Ltd., Gaotu Techedu Inc. and Youdao Inc. a way to deliver course work to their customers without violating the government’s restrictions on offering after-school classes for K-12 students.
In the third quarter of 2021 — in the wake of the clampdown on such classes — shipments of education-oriented tablets rose 6.9%, ending a streak of declines that had lasted four straight quarters, according to research firm IDC. For the entire year, sales grew 3% to 12.9 billion yuan ($5 billion), according to data from another research firm Frost & Sullivan.
And the outlook looks promising for the immediate future, with IDC predicting that China’s education-oriented tablet market will grow rapidly over the next few years. The company forecast that shipments this year will grow 7.7% to 3.82 million.
For the education companies, however, selling tablets and other hardware is far from a panacea. Although they have good reasons for getting into the business, it remains unclear whether sales will be lucrative enough to replace the revenue that the education companies lost from the education business. Meanwhile, competition in the learning tablet segment is growing as one of the main selling points of the devices — artificial intelligence-driven features — has attracted a host of big-name tech companies with far more expertise in the field. And then there are the regulators, who may not look favorably on a pricy education product that could exacerbate the very problem they are trying to solve.
Turning to tablets
The education companies were able to shift into the device business despite their lack of experience because of China’s highly developed ecosystem for manufacturing electronics, said an engineer who works for an internet firm with an education hardware business. That made it easy to find suppliers that could produce a finished product at a low cost.
Companies like Liulishuo and Gaotu began launching their learning tablets in late 2021 at prices that analysts said were easily double those of most equivalent products. Liulishuo, which had once offered English language lessons through an app, sent its tablet to market with a price tag as high as 4,000 yuan, while Gaotu, a former purveyor of online lessons on a wider range of subjects, priced its device at almost 5,000 yuan.
In exchange for the higher price, these companies packed their devices with education content that had amassed from their years in the after-school tutoring industry, giving them some advantage over other electronic hardware manufacturers, said an industry source who previously worked for an online tutoring firm.
Liulishuo’s management believe its product will cater to parents who value its education content, according to a source familiar to with the company’s business strategy.
The content loaded into learning tablets usually incudes exam prep and other subjects that the companies had been barred from offering in classes to the public after the government crackdown. This helped meet some of the demand for after-school lesson that had been left unfilled, analyst said.
It remains unclear just how much of a revenue generator learning tablets can be, especially considering that the size of China's K12 tutoring industry was 168.7 billion yuan in 2020, the year before the crackdown, according to research firm Frost & Sullivan.
For Youdao, the online learning and dictionary service company, hardware sales made up about 27% of its total net revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022, which was up 38.6% year-year to 1.5 billion yuan, according to its quarterly earnings report.
For Gaotu, it’s murkier. Its latest quarterly report didn’t break out hardware sales as a share of net revenue, which was down 50.6% from the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the report.
Last May, Liulishuo was forced to delist from the New York Stock Exchange after failing to meet the listing requirements due to its low valuation. In November, Gaotu received its own delisting warning from the exchange.
Competitive space
The tutoring companies have faced competition in the education hardware segment from the early entrants to the business, such as BBK Education Electronics Co. Ltd. and Readboy Education Technology Co. Ltd. Both founded in the late 1990s, the companies started out selling traditional hardware such as electronic dictionaries before adding the learning tablet to their product line-up in recent years.
However, the competition doesn’t end there. One of the ways that the tutoring companies have justified the high prices of their devices is by touting their advanced artificial intelligence (AI) features. For example, Youdao has hyped its tablet’s ability to check and grade homework. In addition, the tablet’s software can also craft content precisely tailored to the user, according to a company marketing statement.
These kinds of capabilities have apparently resonated with parents. During the final quarter of last year, sales of Youdao’s smart devices rose 28% to a 407 million yuan.
Still, these AI features has been way overhyped, said Zhang Jidong, vice president at the education unit of Iflytek Co. Ltd., a leading Chinese AI firm that has expanded its lineup of education hardware products in recent years. To truly provide such tailored services requires immense set of data that can deployed to train an AI model, and companies like that are few and far between, Zhang said. And most of the private tutoring companies remain focused more on shoring up their education content than on AI research and development.
Still, all the attention has drawn bigger technology firms with a lot more experience with developing AI, such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., Tencent Holdings Ltd., Baidu Inc. and Bytedance Ltd. Companies that have gotten into the education hardware game since 2021 also include Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., smartphone-maker Oppo Co. Ltd., home appliance heavyweight Haier Group Corp., and TV manufacturer Skyworth Group Ltd.
Regulatory risk
Over the past three years, the government has turned a blind eye to the development of the education hardware business because officials believed it played a positive role in supporting online classes that became more prevalent in China during the pandemic, a Ministry of Education official told Caixin.
But the government could tighten regulation on the use of education hardware, now that the pandemic is over, the official said.
However, with the end of the strict zero-Covid policy in December, it seems unlikely that schools will again be required to move all classes online again.
Consequently, concerns have resurfaced about how pricy instructional products can leave poorer families at a disadvantage, potentially widening the inequality gap that had led the government to crack down on the after-school education business in the first place.
There have been signs that another round of regulatory tighten is on the way. Late last year, the Communist Youth League of China added learning tablets to a list of “new types of connected devices” that should be restricted for use by minors.
And in September, an article written by Yu Weiyue, the head of the Ministry of Education department charged with overseeing after-school education attracted widespread attention. In the article, Yu didn’t explicitly mention education hardware, but wrote that “after-school instruction is a matter of national security that need to be tightly regulated.”