Palestinian-Americans in West Bank demand action on settler violence

In the first five months of 2023, there were 475 incidents of settler violence that resulted in property damage or injured Palestinians.

By TOVAH LAZAROFF

JERUSALEM POST
Published: JUNE 25, 2023

The aftermath of a settler attack on Palestinians' homes in Turmus Aiya
(photo credit: TOVAH LAZAROFF)
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“We’re surrounded by fire,” Alaa Shaker Abuawad said as he frantically called his brother-in-law Sharif Samih Omar to rescue him and his family from the settler attack against their home in Turmus Aiya last week.

“I literally drove through the line of fire,” Sharif said as he recalled the harrowing ride to his in-law’s home, where three adults and three children were trapped.

He arrived as settlers who had set homes in the back end of the village ablaze, had moved onto another street to continue the arson rampage.

Settler attack in Turmus Aiya: Palestinians' point of view

Settlers had torched two cars parked in front of the home’s main gate, but his mother-in-law, Abuawad, his wife and three children were able to climb over a fence to his vehicle.

Somehow, everyone was able to squeeze in by sitting one on top of the other as he drove them to safety.

Omar, 37, whose parents were from Turmus Aiya, had been in the village on vacation from Chicago, where he was born and where he now lives with his family.

He had been about to leave for Ramallah on Wednesday when he heard about the attack over the loudspeakers from the village mosque. When he arrived at the back end of the village he saw masked settlers, some of whom had guns and were shooting rounds at the homes. He showed The Jerusalem Post security footage of the settlers.

The aftermath of a settler attack on Palestinians' homes in Turmus Aiya (credit: TOVAH LAZAROFF)

Omar was among the dozens of villagers who came out onto the village’s bright sunny streets on Friday to speak with a delegation of diplomats led by European Union Representative Sven Küehn von Burgsdorff, who told the residents that the attack was an act of terror.

Among the stops on the delegation’s visit was to the wife of Omar Qattin, 27, who had also been among those who went to help rescue Palestinians trapped and or wounded in the attack. He was fatally shot and the identity of his killer has yet to be clarified.

“He was trying to protect people,” she said, as held one of their two small children in her arms. “We are all so proud of him.”

She wore a black scarf over her head and spoke in a tearful voice. “I am in so much pain, but it makes me happy to know that he died bravely rescuing children.”

The wife of Omar Qattin seen with their son and a photo of Omar

 (credit: TOVAH LAZAROFF)

Omar Qattin’s brother Abdullah Jbara flew from Texas after his brother’s death, having spoken with him just an hour before the attack.

When he heard of the violence, he called Omar again to say, “be careful,” but he didn’t answer.

“He always helped everyone,” Abdullah said, adding that his heart was filled with years of memories of his brother.

At a community meeting at the start of the visit, Burgsdorff said that the village was located on “Palestinian land” that is “occupied temporarily by a military power.” Israel under international law, therefore, “has the obligation to protect the Palestinian population under its responsibility.”

He added that this has not been done.

“You are not alone. Your lives matter and they matter to us,” Burgsdorff told the villagers who sat on a long row of plastic chairs opposite the diplomatic delegation.

UN: Three reports of settler violence per day in the West Bank

UN Humanitarian Coordinator Lynn Hastings, who was part of the delegation, said that settler violence was rising sharply from one incident a day in 2021, to two in 2022 and that so far this year, there have been three reports about such violence a day.

In the first five months of 2023, there were 475 incidents of settler violence that resulted in property damage or injured Palestinians, Hastings said, adding that this was a 34% increase over the same period last year.

But the bulk of the attention in the room and at other stops to view burnt-out homes was on Lourdes Lamela from the US Office for Palestinian Affairs.

Some 80-90% of the village is estimated to hold US passports, with a significant portion of the residents holding a specific connection to Chicago.

“What are you going to do about it,” shouted one Palestinian-American man as they stood in a burnt-out room in one of the homes that had been torched, with walls that were black from the fire.

One Palestinian attorney from California told her, “We are helpless.” He held up his US passport and said, “Does this [document] matter.”

Illinois State Representative Abdelnasser Rashid, who had lived in the village as a child, had returned for a summer visit with his children, including a daughter aged seven.

They were in Turmus Aiya at the time of the attack.

A Palestinian man runs near a burning object, after an attack by Israeli settlers, near Ramallah, in the West Bank, June 21, 2023

 (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMAD TOROKMAN)

“I had to have the conversation with my children... that every Palestinian parent has, that the Israeli government does not believe that we believe we deserve equal rights. That the Israeli government believes we can be hurt or even killed with no consequences or accountability.

“I call on the US government to do everything it can to hold Israel accountable and to hold the perpetrators of these attacks accountable and to protect Turmus Aiya and every other Palestinian village and all civilians.”

Palestinian forces call for broad participation in confronting settlers

[26/June/2023]

RAMALLAH June 26. 2023 (Saba) - The Palestinian forces has called for wide participation in confronting settlers who wreak havoc in all Palestinian towns and villages, which requires strengthening protection and guard committees and confronting them by all means.

According to the Palestine Today agency, the national and Islamic forces discussed, in their meeting, the latest political developments, and the repeated attacks by settlers under the protection of the enemy army, against the Palestinian people, their property, their land, and their sanctities.

The forces affirmed that the terror of the enemy and its settlers will not succeed in trying to impose its facts in front of the determination and will of our people who adhere to their rights and constants and their valiant resistance in all its forms for the sake of freedom, independence, the right of return, self-determination, and the establishment of an independent and fully sovereign Palestinian state with al-Quds as its capital.

The forces affirmed that the unlimited American support for the enemy covers its crimes and protects it from trial and accountability, and that the international silence gives it a green light to continue the open war against the Palestinian people.
H.H

resource : Saba

Zionist settlers wounded in Qalqilya

[25/June/2023]

OCCUPIED AL-QUDS June 25. 2023 (Saba)- Two Zionist settlers were injured this evening, Sunday, when a group of Palestinian youths confronted them after entering their vehicle into the town of Azzun, east of Qalqilya, in the occupied West Bank.

Palestinian media, quoting local sources, reported that young men threw stones at a settler vehicle, injuring two settlers, after it entered the vicinity of the western entrance to the town of Azzun, east of Qalqilya.

Resistance operations have escalated in the occupied West Bank in recent weeks and months, as four settlers were killed and three others were wounded in the recent commando operation carried out by the two resistance fighters from the Qassam Brigades Muhannad Shehadeh and Khaled Sabah in the "Eli" settlement of Ramallah in the central West Bank.

Hamas: Netanyahu is telling lies to his audience & the resistance is escalating

Hamas: Netanyahu is telling lies to his audience & the resistance is escalating

[25/June/2023]

GAZA June 25. 2023 (Saba)- The Islamic Resistance Movement "Hamas" considered, this evening, Sunday, that Netanyahu's statements regarding changing the equation with the Palestinian operations represent a lie that he is telling the Zionist community and an attempt to present imaginary achievements.

The website (Palestine Online) quoted the movement's spokesman, Abdul Latif Al-Qanou, in a statement to him as saying: The heroic "Eli" operation, which provided an answer to the threats of his leaders and army, in which four settlers were killed, refutes Netanyahu's deception of his fans and people by changing the equation and restoring deterrence.

Al-Qanou added: "It is evidence of the Palestinian resistance operations escalation and its expansion by various means."

Al-Qanou' noted that the resistance has entered a new path with the enemy and is capable of carrying out heroic operations and directing severe blows to it, within the framework of defending our people, our lands, and our sanctities.

Netanyahu claimed during his government session today, Sunday, that they changed the equation with Hamas during the battle of the "Sword of Al-Quds" in the year 2021.

J.A

resource : SABA

Exclusive (Saba), Zionist enemy launched massive attack on Jenin.. The resistance confronted with courage

Exclusive (Saba), Zionist enemy launched massive attack on Jenin.. The resistance confronted with courage

[20/June/2023]

GAZA June 20.2023 (Saba) – Today Monday, the Zionist enemy forces launched a massive attack on the city of Jenin and its camp in the northern occupied West Bank, which led to violent confrontations with the resistance fighters of the Jenin Battalion of the Al-Quds Brigades, the military arm of the Islamic Jihad Movement, which resulted in the damage and disabling of more than five Zionist military jeeps and the injury of seven of them. Enemy army soldiers one of them seriously injured.

Meanwhile, the Palestinian Ministry of Health announced the death of five citizens, including a child, and the wounding of 91 others, including more than 15 seriously, as a result of the Zionist aggression on Jenin.

The Zionist Channel 12 reported that an army helicopter fired, for the first time since 2002, two missiles at sites in Jenin to secure the rescue of the military forces and vehicles that fell into an elaborate ambush.

In turn, Islamic Jihad spokesman Tariq Selmi said: What is happening in Jenin is terrorism and organized aggression by the Zionist enemy that aims to kill the spirit of resistance in the West Bank.

Salmi added, in an exclusive interview with the Yemeni News Agency (Saba), that the continuous confrontation on the land of Jenin proves the roots of the resistance as a firm and irreplaceable approach in confronting the Zionist enemy, in addition to that it reflects the courage of the Palestinian resistance fighters and confirms the full and continuous readiness to confront the enemy.

He continued, "The Palestinian resistance will not be broken, and we affirm that what is happening will not change anything in the equation imposed by the resistance in confronting the enemy through continuous clashes."

In the context, Palestinian writer and political analyst Khaled Sadiq believes that the Zionist escalation in Jenin comes within the framework of a major Zionist plan to change the geographical reality in the West Bank, especially after the Zionist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich was authorized yesterday to build random and accelerated settlements in the West Bank.

Sadiq added, in an exclusive interview with the Yemeni News Agency (Saba), that "Israel" is trying to draw a new reality through its crimes against the Palestinians in the West Bank, which prompted the Palestinian resistance to take it upon itself to defend the resistance project, its land and its right to preserve on this earth.

He continued: "Today we have begun to witness the payment of" Israel "the price of its follies in the West Bank through deaths and injuries in the field and its recognition of that."

Sadiq added, "Smotrich, who calls for the expulsion of the Palestinian Authority and the displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank, will be confronted with the Palestinian resistance that will not allow him to implement his aggressive plans and will confront all his settlement projects and thwart these projects through field action on the ground, which will cause the occupation great losses."

The Palestinian political analyst stressed that the enemy will pay a heavy price in the coming period for this escalating act of aggression in the West Bank, and will not be able to pass its plans to Judaize the West Bank and evacuate its people from it.

The military spokesman for Al-Quds Brigades, Abu Hamza, had said, "The heroic act of the heroes of Al-Quds Brigades in the Jenin Battalion this morning reflects the Zionist impotence in front of the size of the Palestinian insistence on continuing the struggle and the path of jihad until the occupation is defeated from pure Palestine from its sea to its river."

Abu Hamza threatened the occupation entity, saying, "The enemy must wait for more, as long as the policy of assassinations and the violation of the sanctity of prisoners, prisoners, and sanctities continues."

Gaza - SABA: Nidal Abu Mustafa

M.M

IRONY
Harvard Scholar Who Studies Honesty Is Accused of Fabricating Findings

Questions about a widely cited paper are the latest to be raised about methods used in behavioral research.

Work by a professor at Harvard Business School, Francesca Gino, has come under question.

By Noam Scheiber

Updated June 25, 2023

Over the past two decades, dozens of behavioral scientists have risen to prominence pointing out the power of small interventions to improve well-being.

The scientists said they had found that automatically enrolling people in organ donor programs would lead to higher rates of donation, and that moving healthy foods like fruit closer to the front of a buffet line would result in healthier eating.

Many of these findings have attracted skepticism as other scholars showed that their effects were smaller than initially claimed, or that they had little impact at all. But in recent days, the field may have sustained its most serious blow yet: accusations that a prominent behavioral scientist fabricated results in multiple studies, including at least one purporting to show how to elicit honest behavior.

The scholar, Francesca Gino of Harvard Business School, has been a co-author of dozens of papers in peer-reviewed journals on such topics as how rituals like silently counting to 10 before deciding what to eat can increase the likelihood of choosing healthier food, and how networking can make professionals feel dirty.

Maurice Schweitzer, a behavioral scientist at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said the accusations were having large “reverberations in the academic community” because Dr. Gino is someone who has “so many collaborators, so many articles, who is really a leading scholar in the field.”

Dr. Schweitzer said that he was now going through the eight papers on which he collaborated with Dr. Gino for indications of fraud, and that many other scholars were doing so as well.

Behavioral work is common in psychology, management and economics, and scholars can straddle these disciplines. According to her résumé, Dr. Gino has a Ph.D. in economics and management from an Italian university.

Questions about her work surfaced in an article on June 16 in The Chronicle of Higher Education about a 2012 paper written by Dr. Gino and four colleagues. One of Dr. Gino’s co-authors — Max H. Bazerman, also of Harvard Business School — told The Chronicle that the university had informed him that a study overseen by Dr. Gino for the paper appeared to include fabricated results.

The 2012 paper reported that asking people who fill out tax or insurance documents to attest to the truth of their responses at the top of the document rather than at the bottom significantly increased the accuracy of the information they provided. The paper has been cited hundreds of times by other scholars, but more recent work had cast serious doubt on its findings.


Dr. Gino did not respond to a request for comment, and Harvard Business School declined to comment. Reached by phone, a man who identified himself as Dr. Gino’s husband said, “It’s obviously something that is very sensitive that we can’t speak to now.”

Dr. Bazerman did not respond to a request for comment for this article, but told The Chronicle of Higher Education that he had had nothing to do with any fabrication.

On June 17, a blog run by three behavioral scientists, called DataColada, posted a detailed discussion of evidence that the results of a study by Dr. Gino for the 2012 paper had been falsified. The post said that the bloggers contacted Harvard Business School in the fall of 2021 to raise concerns about Dr. Gino’s work, providing the university with a report that included evidence of fraud in the 2012 paper as well as in three other papers on which she collaborated.

The blog — by Uri Simonsohn of ESADE Business School in Barcelona, Leif Nelson of the University of California, Berkeley, and Joseph Simmons of the University of Pennsylvania — focuses on the integrity and reliability of social science research. The post on Dr. Gino noted that Harvard had placed her on administrative leave, a fact that was reflected on her business school web page, though no reason was given. The Internet Archive, which catalogs web pages, shows that Dr. Gino was not on leave as recently as mid-May.

The 2012 paper was based on three separate studies. One study overseen by Dr. Gino involved a lab experiment in which about 100 participants were asked to complete a worksheet featuring 20 puzzles and were promised $1 for every puzzle they solved.

The study’s participants later filled out a form reporting how much money they had earned from solving the puzzles. The participants were led to believe that cheating would be undetected, when in fact the researchers could verify how many puzzles they had solved.

The study found that participants were much more likely to report their puzzle income honestly if they attested to the accuracy of their responses at the top of the form rather than the bottom.

But in their blog post, Dr. Simonsohn, Dr. Nelson and Dr. Simmons, analyzing data that Dr. Gino and her co-authors had posted online, cited a digital record contained within an Excel file to demonstrate that some of the data points had been tampered with, and that the tampering helped drive the result.

Last week’s post was not the first time the DataColada watchdogs had found problems with the 2012 paper by Dr. Gino and her co-authors. In a blog post in August 2021, the same researchers found evidence that another study published in the same paper appeared to rely on manufactured data.

That study relied on data provided by an insurance company, to which customers reported the mileage of cars covered by their policy. The study purported to find that customers who were asked at the top of the form to attest to the truthfulness of the information they would provide were significantly more honest than customers who were asked to attest to their truthfulness at the bottom of the form.

But through analysis of the raw data, Dr. Simonsohn, Dr. Nelson and Dr. Simmons concluded that many of the data points were created by someone connected to the study, not based on customer information. The journal that published the 2012 paper, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, retracted it the month after the blog post appeared.

In that case, another of the paper’s co-authors, Dan Ariely of Duke University, was the scholar who procured the data from the insurance company. Dr. Ariely, one of the world’s best-known behavioral scientists, said in an email on Friday that he had been “stunned and surprised” to learn that some of the insurance data in the paper had been fabricated, “which led me to proactively retract it.”

DataColada has since published blog posts laying out evidence that results were fabricated in two other papers of which Dr. Gino was a co-author. The bloggers have written that they plan to publish one more post laying out issues in an additional paper on which she collaborated.

In interviews and comments on social media, several scholars said they had not suspected fraud in Dr. Gino’s work. But some noted that the findings in the genre of behavioral research that she specializes in, which is closer to psychology, often resemble findings generated by questionable research methods.

One category of questionable methods, said Colin Camerer, a behavioral economist at the California Institute of Technology, is p-hacking — for example, testing a series of arbitrary data combinations until the researcher arrives at an inflated statistical correlation.

In 2015, a team of scholars reported that they had tried to replicate the results of 100 studies published in prominent psychology journals and succeeded in fewer than half the cases. The behavioral studies proved especially hard to replicate.

Sheelagh McNeill contributed research.

Noam Scheiber is a Chicago-based reporter who covers workers and the workplace. He spent nearly 15 years at The New Republic, where he covered economic policy and three presidential campaigns. He is the author of “The Escape Artists.” More about Noam Scheiber

A version of this article appears in print on June 24, 2023, Section B, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: Researcher Is Accused Of Fakery.

‘Islam is an excuse, the goal is money’: Taliban gunmen stop the music in Afghanistan’s wedding halls — sometimes

There are rules against music, but the rules don’t always to the Taliban, whose enforcers are proving keener on shaking down wedding parties than heeding their dogma.

By Marjan Sadat

Staff Reporter
Sun., June 25, 2023

After weeks of preparation, hundreds of guests had gathered for the party in the wedding hotel. Everyone seemed happy, music was echoing in the separate women’s-only hall and young girls were celebrating with joy and dance.

An hour had passed when the young bride and groom entered, both in white, and the DJ played the famous and traditional song “Ahesta Bero” (“Go Slowly”) but moments later, gunfire was heard. Armed, dishevelled, long-haired men working for the Taliban’s Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice walked in and took the DJ’s music equipment away with them.

It happened a month ago in the province of Kunduz in northern Afghanistan, a man we’ll call Jabar (not his real name) told the Star. And Afghans say it’s not unusual.

Jabar, the groom’s cousin, said that he was outside the wedding hotel (one of Afghanistan’s special, luxurious halls dedicated to nuptials) when the Taliban’s men arrived. They grabbed the DJ’s gear, tied it to the back of a Ford Ranger pickup — the vehicles given in the thousands by the U.S. to Afghanistan’s previous police and army, and now in Taliban hands — and drove them away.

“It was a really sad moment. I think we are in a prison where our happiness and sadness depends” on the jailer’s decisions, Jabar said in Persian.

The fear that prevailed after the incident turned the happy gathering into a sad one, he continued, adding that people hate this type of Islam, which hits people in the mouth with a gun butt and buries their dreams. A law school graduate, Jabar, 25, asserted that in fact this behaviour has nothing to do with religion.

“Part of this performance of the Taliban is (for) blackmail and obtaining money. Many of them have now realized the joy of wealth and do everything under the name of Islam to earn money.”

The Taliban have banned playing music, dancing and singing since the day they returned to power on August 2021. Yet enforcement varies. In many videos posted on social media Taliban fighters both dance and sing, albeit without musical instruments, and say it is “spiritual” and permitted. And sometimes the regime’s armed representatives permit music in the women’s hall, for a price.

Ramez (not his real name) is in charge of a Kabul wedding hall. He said that the behaviour of the Taliban is not consistent on the issue. According to him, not long ago, they beat and arrested the owner of a wedding hotel because of music in the women’s hall, but lately taking cash instead “for allowing music to play has become common and everyone knows about it. Islam is an excuse, the goal is money.”

Speaking in Persian, he added that even the Taliban have told the hoteliers that there should not be male waiters and camera persons in women’s wedding halls, but so far men are still filling those jobs. Ramez adds that Taliban fighters have stopped cars at city checkpoints and said “give us money, we haven’t been paid for several months.”

“They have started extortion under the name of Islam and the whole world sees and knows this,” Ramez said. He added that the conditions of average people in Afghanistan have deteriorated immensely since the fall of the republic in 2021, and it has predictably also hurt the hotel business.

Ramez said there was a wedding party every night in his hotel pre-Taliban, but after August 2021, due to the imposition of restrictions and the prevailing poverty, wedding parties come only about two nights a week, most of them Taliban fighters who have married educated girls of the capital. There is, he said, no restriction on playing music in their parties.

“A few days ago, the wedding party of a Taliban official which was attended by most of the Taliban officials was held in our hotel and there were no restrictions on playing music or observing hijab. This was his second marriage after August 2021.”

During the restored rule of the Taliban, many officials of this group have married polygamously, taking on second, third and fourth wives. The Star has obtained videos of a DJ playing music in the women’s hall in the Taliban’s own gathering; in the men’s hall, a man is singing live.

Rauf (not his real name) is in charge of a Kabul flower shop that also rents DJ gear to hotels. He said that on several occasions the Taliban has confiscated music equipment from hotels and then sold it back for cash.

“When we go to the Taliban to get our musical equipment, they say with anger and insults that ‘you make people’s women dance and are infidels.’ And then when we pay, they hand over the equipment and it is as if we are no longer infidels,” Rauf told the Star in Persian.

Rauf said that it usually takes 5,000 to 20,000 Afghanis ($80-$300) to get equipment back from the Taliban; once, he even bought curtains and mattresses for a Taliban official’s office. The businessman said “The Islam of the Taliban is not Islam, it is Islamabad” — the capital of Pakistan. The majority of Taliban officials were students of Pakistani madrassas and for 20 years, they led the war against international forces from there.

Farida, 26, a resident of Mazar-e-Sharif in the north of Afghanistan, got engaged prior to the Taliban’s return but her wedding took place only recently. She had long held on to her dreams and hopes for the big day, but in the end it was decided only to play music for an hour at the women’s hall, lest the regime’s gunmen show up.

Jabar said that these sorts of acts by the Taliban have alienated the people from Islam and destroyed the sense of hope and desire in people’s minds. Farida said that people’s living conditions and outlook have changed a lot from the era of the republic — now everything is associated with fear and terror, even weddings.

“I had many wishes for my wedding party, but it was not fulfilled,” Farida said to Star in Persian.

“I don’t feel good at all in life … The second name of our life is fear and hopelessness.”

Marjan Sadat is a Toronto-based general assignment reporter for the Star. Reach her via email: msadat@thestar.ca

With A Chronic Shortage Of Teachers, Hungary Is Struggling To Replace Them

June 25, 2023 
By Lili Rutai
Adam Kertesz

Tájékoztató a középszintű történelem érettségi vizsgáról a székesfehérvári Teleki Blanka Gimnázium és Általános Iskolában 2022. május 4-én

BUDAPEST -- For high-school teacher Veronika Molnar, it's the last week before the school breaks for the summer holidays in mid-June. It's also her last week at Lovassy Laszlo High School, ranked as the 10th best in Hungary, as she's leaving her job as an English and information-science teacher for good.

Molnar, 44, has been a teacher for 20 years, starting her career at the renowned high school in Veszprem, a city of 60,000 people in western Hungary, right after she got her degree. She spent two years on unpaid leave and lived in Dublin, Ireland, where she worked in the hospitality industry. It was then, she said, that she realized just how badly Hungarian teachers were paid, which has been one of the factors in her decision to quit.

Citing low pay, increasing workload, and burnout, Molnar is one of many Hungarian teachers leaving the profession, which has contributed to a nationwide shortage of teachers and led to country-wide strikes and protests. It isn't just that teachers are leaving and not being replaced, however. Across Hungary, very few recent graduates are choosing to enter the pedagogical profession, only making the problem worse.

Veronika Molnar, a teacher at Lovassy Laszlo High School in Veszprem

In recent months, Hungary's Democratic Trade Union of Teachers (PDSZ) has organized civil disobedience events and demonstrations around the country, with both teachers and students taking part, to protest poor working conditions and the education policies of the government of Hungary's longtime right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Experts have warned that the rapidly shrinking pedagogic population could have serious consequences on Hungarian education. According to PDSZ spokeswoman Erzsebet Nagy, in 2022, the education system was short 16,000 teachers, with many more leaving since then.

Many of those missing teachers have not been replaced. Of the 126,000 Hungarians who applied to universities in 2023, less than 3,400 people applied for pedagogical degrees, according to numbers by the education information platform Eduline, with only 1,595 putting teaching as their primary major.

Education researcher Kriszta Ercse told RFE/RL's Hungarian Service that the number of applicants for teaching degrees has halved over the past few years, and the dropout rate from pedagogical university courses is 40-50 percent. Even among those who graduate with teaching degrees, she said, many don't end up taking the exams to obtain the professional qualification, which come after two years of working as a trainee teacher following graduation.

"A few years ago, 2,300 people passed the professional [teaching] exam from 12,000-13,000 applicants [for a pedagogical degree]," she said. In Hungary previously, she said, many people who applied to do teaching degrees didn't want to be teachers in the first place, they just wanted a diploma and then sought employment in another field.

"If we have 1,600 applicants now, you can imagine how many will actually end up in the profession. This situation is simply catastrophic," she said, referring to the number of people applying with teaching as their primary major.

There could also be a significant knowledge deficit in the future, weighted against math and science in schools. Students in Hungary can apply for up to three university majors. They will automatically be admitted to the first major on their list if they earn enough points from their final exams, grades, and extracurricular activities at high school.

Ercse said the shortage of teachers is most notable in the fields of math and natural sciences. Among the less than 3,400 people who applied for pedagogical degrees at university this year, the most popular major was history-English combined, with 119 applications in total. Much fewer students choose the sciences or math.

In the past, Ercse said, teachers had a higher status in public and were more satisfied with their working conditions. That has now changed, with teachers saying they have to deal with a huge increase in workload, overly large class sizes, and regularly having to substitute for teachers of different subjects: for example, a gym teacher teaching chemistry; or a history teacher teaching physics.

"I haven't taken a holiday in 20 years," Molnar said. In addition to teaching at the high school, she has also been working as a sailing coach at nearby Lake Balaton, which she does on weekends and during the summer holidays. Despite having two jobs, she has had money problems, especially after the 2008 financial crisis, when she was one of hundreds of thousands of Hungarians who had taken mortgages in euros or Swiss francs and then found themselves with higher debt payments.

"I ended up in a situation where, after I paid back my loan and settled my bills, I had 5,000 forints ($15) to spend for the entire month," she said. "So, I had to take on extra classes. And I had to ask my parents for financial help, because I didn't even have money for food. With three university degrees, it was embarrassing."

With Hungary's inflation now at around 20 percent, teachers' salaries, which go as low as 312,000 forints ($927) a month before taxes, are now worth even less. The average salary in Hungary is around 500,000 forints a month.

On top of which, a new so-called Status Law, drafted by Orban's government, puts teachers voicing their dissatisfaction into an even more vulnerable position, according to the Hungarian Helsinki Committee. While the draft law entails a pay rise, it would also eliminate teachers' status as public employees and increase their workload. Dubbed the Revenge Law by some independent media in Hungary, the law followed the series of demonstrations around the country organized by the PDSZ.

Teachers join a union protest calling for better pay and conditions in the education sector, in Budapest in March 2022.

The teachers' union has repeatedly warned the Religion and Public Education Ministry that if it sticks to the Status Law, Hungary will not be able to produce 140,000 teachers, the number recommended by the EU's Human Resources Development Operational Program Plus, which partly focuses on improving the quality of public education and accounts for 11 percent of all EU funding for Hungary between 2014-2020.

Nagy, the PDSZ spokeswoman, told RFE/RL's Hungarian Service that in 2022 the number of teachers was already below 140,000. According to the PDSZ, if the Status Law comes into effect, a further 5,000 teachers could leave the profession. And in five years' time, a further 25,000 teachers could quit, the union has warned.

The government has said it can alleviate the shortage with retired teachers, by making it possible for them to receive a full salary in addition to their pensions. According to the PDSZ, however, this won't solve the problem. "For several years, the number of university graduates who actually started a teaching career was close to zero. Practically no new people have entered the system, which could lead to the complete extinction of the profession," Nagy said.

In the Buda Cistercian St. Imre High School where he works, Kristof Szatmari, a 26-year-old sports and psychotherapy teacher, knows only about seven teachers out of around 70 working there who graduated in the past five years. In the Budapest high school's 10-person sports faculty, he said, there are only two people under 30 and another three under 40. "Most young people will do something else for that much money," he says.

Teachers protest in Budapest in December 2022.

Buda Cistercian St. Imre is currently ranked 26th out of all high schools in Hungary. Located in a grandiose building in Budapest's 6th district and receiving funds from the Catholic Church, St. Imre is in a relatively good position. As education researcher Ercse pointed out, the shortage of teachers has hit disadvantaged areas of the country the hardest.

Despite the challenges, Szatmari said he likes teaching and will stick to it. "I enjoy dealing with the kids, building communities," he said. All in all, the positives of the job outweigh the negatives, he said.

Szatmari said he is happy with what he earns, although he has to supplement his income with other activities. "Let's just say, I would [already] have enough work in the school, with being a teacher and a class tutor. I would be busy enough, without having to coach kids in volleyball…and direct a sports club," Szatmari said.

Lili Rutai is a freelance journalist based in London and Budapest. She has previously reported for Vice, The Calvert Journal, and Atlatszo.hu about social issues, culture, and politics in Hungary.

Adam Kertesz has been a journalist in Hungary for more than 20 years, working for InfoRadio, Fuggetlen Hiregyong, Kossuth Radio, TV2, and Hir TV.

'Plastic World': Art for the throwaway society

Sabine Oelze
06/25/2023

DW - ARTS

An exhibition in Frankfurt looks into the history of plastic in the arts, from avant-garde and Bauhaus experiments to futuristic space-age and trash works.


Peter Cook's model of an instant city is on show at the Schirn Kunsthalle

Image: Peter Cook/Archigram 1968

Sneakers, dentures, computers — plastic is everywhere. Like a chameleon, it can go undetected, adapt to its surroundings, become invisible. And, of course, it's also used in the arts.

The virtually rotproof material's boom in the arts scene came in the 1960s, but it had already inspired avant-garde movements in Paris decades earlier.

The first sculpture made of plastic was created in 1916 by Russian sculptor Naum Gabo: "Tete No.2" ("Constructed Head No.2") a cubist head made of rhodoid, a cellulose acetate plastic used to make dolls and billiard balls.

'Constructed Head No.2' is the first artwork made from plastic, by Naum Gabo

Image: Ben Birchall/empics/picture alliance

But not all plastics are the same. When Plexiglas, also known as acrylic, came out in the 1930s, new possibilities emerged, including for artists.

Bauhaus and other artistic movements of the era experimented with transparency and reflections.

The artists of the Zero group, including Otto Piene and Heinz Mack, benefited from the possibilities this new plastic offered in the late 1950s, experimenting with plastic films to produce their light sculptures. Any material was fine for his art, said Mack. But when designers also started using plastic for furniture in pop colors, he lost interest.

Is that art, or is it garbage?

Plastic — whether hard or flexible, transparent, opaque, patterned, smooth, delicate or bursting with color — then appeared in various art forms and movements, including in pop art.

John de Andrea's 1978 female plastic nude sculpture "Woman Leaning against the Wall" is so realistic you want to reach out and touch her to confirm it's just a sculpture.

Piene's 'Anemones' used transparent plastic to create something resembling a sea anemone

 Otto Piene estate/VG Bild-Kunst, Bonn 2023, © Foto: Peter Moore

The boundaries between art and fashion blurred. Thomas Bayrle, an artist from the German city of Frankfurt, worked with a fashion studio to design plastic coats that were later sold at the Kaufhof department store chain for 25.50 Deutsche Marks (about €12, or $13).

Niki de Saint Phalle, famous for her gigantic "Nanas," also gave in to the pull of plastic. In 1968 she created inflatable balloon Nanas. As beach toys, people could take them along on a vacation.
Plastic critics

French Nouveau Realisme artists such as Christo & Jeanne-Claude, Cesar and Arman, were among the first to create artworks criticizing plastic as a symbol of consumerism and the throwaway society.

Christo & Jeanne Claude created 'Look,' magazines wrapped in plastic and bound with twine, around 1965Image: Sammlung Karin und Uwe Hollweg,Weserburg Museum für moderne Kunst, Bremen

Arman created trash objects called "Poubelles" (Trash cans) in which he squeezed lots of plastic trash into a display case. "As a witness to this society, I have always been intensely concerned with the pseudo-biological cycle of production, consumption and destruction," Arman said in 1973, adding that he was long been troubled by the fact that "one of the most obvious concrete consequences of this cycle is to flood our world with junk and surplus rejects." His words sound downright visionary today.

Arman's colorful hodgepodge of "Poubelles" was intended to contrast with the enthusiastic use of plastic in pop art. For example, US artist Claes Oldenburg created XXL soft sculptures meant to represent everyday objects. He used rigid polyurethane foam, a new material that came onto the market in the 1960s and excited the art world.

Claes Oldenburg's soft sculpture, "Giant Fagends," shows huge cigarette butts

Image: /Mark Lennihan/AP/picture alliance

Painting with plastic

Lynda Benglis, another US sculptor, was on a different path, expanding the boundaries between painting and sculpture by "painting" with latex and pigments. Her sculptural "Pools" have an undulating, organic form that almost seems to be alive because of the flow and movement of the plastic. Benglis also created a series of works in molded polyurethane foam and plasticized paper.

The sculptures of Berlin-based artist Berta Fischer, born in 1973, are all about transparency and lightness. She creates ephemeral installations out of plastic foils, nylon threads or acrylic glass, with brightly colored, reflective or transparent surfaces that appear to be classy and cheap at the same time.

Pascale Marthine Tayou's 'L'arbre à palabres' (The Parley Tree) is on show at the Frankfurt exhibition

Image: VG Bild-Kunst, Bonn 2023

The "Plastic World" exhibition at Frankfurt's Schirn Kunsthalle museum, which runs until October 1, 2023, presents art ranging from the euphoria of pop culture to the futuristic influence of the space age and the trash works of Nouveau Realisme to contemporary eco-critical works.

The exhibition shows the allure of plastic and its drawbacks, emphasizing how ambivalent the material can be. Plastic is a curse and a blessing; it is indestructible, just like the concept of art itself.

This article was originally written in German.

‘Incomplete revolution’: Tunisia crackdown slammed by critics

Experts and family members of those arrested say the North African country is no more an Arab Spring success story.

Tunisia's President Kais Saied is accused of stifling dissent 

[File: Johanna Geron/Pool via Reuters]

By Edna Mohamed
Published On 25 Jun 2023

London, England – After the Arab Spring protests in the early 2010s, Tunisia experienced a brief spell of democracy.

But that changed in July 2021 when President Kais Saied froze parliament and sacked the government in a dramatic move.

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Since then, the North African country has seen an intense crackdown on opposition leaders, critics and activists.

Since February this year, more than 20 people – including opposition politicians, journalists and business figures – have been arrested under various charges such as “plotting against state security” and “terrorism”.

Among those arrested are Rached Ghannouchi, head of the Islamist Ennahdha party, its member Said Ferjani, and prominent radio journalist Zied el-Heni, who many believe penned the term the “Jasmine Revolution”.

While freedom of speech and media were critical gains for Tunisians after the Arab Spring revolution led to the overthrow of then-leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, activists and journalists say those freedoms are threatened under Saied’s rule.

People wave national flags during celebrations marking the sixth anniversary of the 2011 Arab Spring revolution, in Tunis, Tunisia [File: Zoubeir Souissi/Reuters]

Speaking at a forum in London on post-Arab Spring Tunisia on Friday, Maha Azzam, head of the Egyptian revolutionary council, said, “Tunisians and Arabs have known nothing but tyranny for decades except for a short hiatus in the Arab Spring.”

Azzam said what is happening in Tunisia is not unlike other post-revolution countries where vested interests avoid political accountability by a regime of oppression.

“The Arab Spring was round one. It was an intifada if you like. It was an uprising, it was an incomplete revolution, but there will be other cycles like with other revolutions. It was peaceful, and I hope it will remain peaceful,” she said.

Soumaya Ghannouchi, daughter of the jailed Ennahdha chief, said Saied “robbed the Tunisians of the hard-won freedoms”.

“You are hounded by your sick suspicions, your power, greed, your fear. Ghannouchi haunts you,” she said in a message to the Tunisian president. “Try as you may, you will never lock Ghannouchi away. You are the prisoner, not him.”

Soumaya added: “He [Saied] gave them [Tunisians] not only dictatorship but also poverty and state bankruptcy.”

Tunisia’s economic crisis has been worsened by stalled talks with the International Monetary Fund for a loan of $1.9bn. Without a loan, the country faces a severe payments crisis.

Ennahdha chief Rached Ghannouchi in Tunis

 [File: Hassene Dridi/AP Photo]

Opposition parties say Saied’s action against the opposition leaders is politically motivated as they call for the authorities to release political prisoners.

But Saied alleges those imprisoned were “terrorists, criminals and traitors”, and judges who free them would be endorsing their alleged crimes.

Kaouther Ferjani, daughter of jailed politician Said Ferjani, said when her family asked a judge why her father was in prison, the judge replied, “It was either me or him.”

“My father in prison said we have shifted from the independence of the judiciary to the use and abuse of the judiciary,” she said.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

Tools of the trade: Broadening the appeal of engineering through sustainability


By Dr. Tim Sandle
DIGITAL JOURNAL
Published June 25, 2023

Originally known as Lloyd Barrage, it was considered an engineering marvel when completed in 1932, capable of discharging 1.4 million cubic metres of water per second - Copyright AFP Asif HASSAN

In a recent poll of engineering academics, the group from across a series of leading U.K. universities were asked what should be done to elevate the status of engineering. When presented with this question, almost two thirds (63 percent) of the respondents felt that engineering should be made more visible in schools.

In particular, the academics considered that parents need to be educated about what an important career choice being a professional engineer can be. This tendency is designed to boost the standing of engineering as a STEM subject.

Engineering is also important for addressing the environmental, technological, economic and social challenges that advanced economies face.

In order to broaden the appeal of engineering, and to connect with the younger generation, current engineers and academics emphasised the importance of climate considerations and other sustainability goals. According to the poll, 61 percent of academics indicated they have recently changed their curricula to place a greater emphasis on sustainability.

Sustainable engineering concerns the process of using resources in a way that does not compromise the environment or deplete the materials for future generations. This includes developing new approaches for designing and operating systems in such a way that the energy and resources that they use are sustainable.

Examples of practices that some engineering firms engage in include carbon reduction and sustainable procurement.

It is important that such solutions are introduced at a rate that does not compromise the natural environment and its ability to be used by future generations to meet their own needs.

Concerns extend through to the water that runs through our taps to the process of removing and breaking down the rubbish thrown into a waste bin.

Furthermore, the majority of professors take the view that a greater focus on what engineering can do to contribute to improving the climate will help to improve overall student satisfaction (this was raised by 54 percent of respondents).

For example, the New Model Institute for Technology & Engineering (NMITE) has within its structure the Centre for Advanced Timber Engineering. This body aims to create a new workforce skilled in the use of sustainable construction materials and techniques, to drive the development of a much more sustainable built environment.

The philosophy extends to the Timber Engineering classrooms. The positioning of the building was designed in a way that it considers the local environment and the structure is orientated to minimise heat gain whilst maximising natural light.

Op-Ed: OceanGate — Reckless or not? Underwater community fury is all about safety


By Paul Wallis

DIGITAL JOURNAL
Published June 24, 2023

This undated image courtesy of OceanGate Expeditions, shows their Titan submersible launching from a platform – 

Copyright OceanGate Expeditions/AFP Handout

Many people have been highly critical of the loss of OceanGate’s Titan submersible. The sheer level of criticism has genuinely surprised some media commentators. This is particularly the case with a rather lengthy range of technical criticisms.

Why the huge fuss? The answer is in who’s doing the criticizing. The underwater community includes divers, submariners, underwater industry technicians, and researchers. The ever-expanding underwater vehicles market is also part of this mix. These people have skin in the game, and they’re not at all happy.

There are a lot of pretty uncompromising reasons for the fury. We’ll leave out unproven allegations, unhelpful media beat-ups, and innuendo. The core reasons are all about basic underwater safety.

The US Coast Guard said the Titan submersible appears to have suffered a ‘catastrophic implosion’ on a dive to the Titanic –

 Copyright GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File Nathan Howard

Titan was already subject to some serious backroom technical criticism about safety before it entered the water. There are a lot of allegations, but the bottom line is that Titan did implode. It was operating very close to maximum depth according to its specifications. OceanGate is ultimately responsible for the failure of the submersible.

Titan was obviously at some point at a depth at which it simply couldn’t take the pressure. Nobody knows how or why. There might have been a system malfunction. That’s what’s got the experts so angry. The submersible shouldn’t have been anywhere near crush depth.

You see this in underwater movies all the time. The heroes get away with going below crush depth, or you don’t have a movie. It has been done in real life by navy submarines, very occasionally. It’s very much the exception to the rule, and a lot of subs didn’t survive.

The journey to reach the wreck of the Titanic in a tiny submersible is cold and dark, but spectacular, says one of the handful of people who has done it. — © AFP

In real life, your chances of survival at crush depth are pretty much zero. Crush depth is crush depth. This depth is calculated during the building of submersibles. The numbers tell the story. These numbers are always right.

… This is why nobody at all bought or is buying the “all right on the night” scenario with Titan. It’s too glaring and too dangerous a mistake to make.

That’s what’s generating the genuine fury of the criticism. The whole underwater sector is furious on many levels:The avoidable loss of life in the face of expert warnings.
OceanGate’s responses to those warnings and allegedly blasé risk management.
The effect on the industry’s all-important reputation of safety.

The allegations of recklessness are truly damning. Never mind “trial by media”. What’s needed are facts. An inquiry will be held, just like it was in the case of the Titanic itself. Future lives will depend on getting the facts straight.

Prigozhin’s Rising Cut Russian Supply Lines to Ukraine, Ensuring Kyiv can Win the War if It Acts Quickly, Inozemtsev Says

Ukrainian commander on possible Wagner attack from Belarus: ‘Nothing but suicide’

Founder of Wagner private mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin speaks with servicemen during withdrawal of his forces from Bakhmut. (Reuters)

Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English
Published: 25 June ,2023

Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warned on Sunday that should Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin try to lead his Wagner forces in an attack on Ukraine from Belarus, it would be “nothing but suicide.”

Commander Serhii Naiev said that Ukraine’s northern border – shared with Belarus – remained “stable and under control,” according to the Ukrainian military’s Telegram account.

He added: “Our troops continue to build up defense equipment. All services, from intelligence to engineering troops, are operating in enhanced mode. Currently, there is no increase in equipment or manpower of the enemy. The state border is under reliable protection 24/7.”

He stressed that should a cross-border attack be launched from the Belarusian side; the Ukrainian forces were armed and ready to counter any such attack.

“If this happens and the enemy tries to cross the state border, it will be nothing but suicide for them. Our soldiers are ready to give a decent response to anyone who dares to cross the state border with weapons in hand.

Former British Army chief of general staff General Richard Dannatt had earlier said in an interview with Sky News that Prigozhin’s presence in Belarus was a “matter of some concern,” as it was quite possible that Russia may use Wagner forces to try and take the Ukrainian capital again.

Russian forces stationed for Moscow's defense pulled back on Sunday when the Wagner mercenaries, led by Prigozhin, ceased their approach towards the capital. Prior to this, the mercenaries had seemingly seized the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, a center that oversees Ukraine operations, and advanced towards Moscow with little resistance, successfully downing several helicopters and a military plane.

A surprising development occurred when a deal was brokered for Prigozhin's move to Belarus, leading to the dropping of charges against him for instigating an armed uprising, as stated by Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman. As a result of this agreement, Prigozhin ordered his troops to return to their bases.

Prigozhin’s Rising Cut Russian Supply Lines to Ukraine, Ensuring Kyiv can Win the War if It Acts Quickly, Inozemtsev Says

            Staunton, June 25 – In a single day, Prigozhin and his Wagner PMC sliced through the supply lines of the Russian army fighting in Ukraine, putting that army at risk of rapid defeat if as is likely the Ukrainian side recognizes what has happened in the last 24 hours and attacks Russian forces at strategic locations, Vladislav Inozemtsev says.

            Because of what Prigozhin and company did, the Moscow economist and political commentator says, the war in Ukraine “is over.” The Russian forces will now lose it very quickly; and therefore what is happening is very good for Ukraine (novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/06/24/putin-konchilsia).

            “The Russian army now fighting in Ukraine requires a huge logistical system,” Inozemtsev continues. And the main routes of this supply chain were “destroyed in one day” by Prigozhin who disrupted those lines over more than 1000 kilometers. “I think that the Ukrainians cannot fail to take advantage of this situation.”

            The Ukrainians need to act very quickly as Moscow may seek to recover what it has lost, but the Prigozhin rising showed how pathetic the Russian system has become under Putin and the incompetent people he has put in charge of the military. And perhaps worse for Putin is the fact that everyone can see that he can’t control the situation.

            As the latest Russian anecdote puts it, in 2021, Russia had the second strongest army in the world. By 2022, it had the second strongest one in Ukraine; and now in 2023, the Russian army is the second strongest one in Russia itself.” Russians are laughing about this, and that laughter is about Putin.

Op-Ed: Wagner deal — A  charade?

By Paul Wallis

DIGITAL JOURNAL
Published June 24, 2023

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has said his troops had taken control of Russia’s main military command centre for Ukraine operations as well as an airbase in the city - Copyright AFP STRINGER

There is never anything simple or straightforward about Russian history or politics. The furious “march on Moscow” and the rhetoric of the last 48 hours have vanished in a strange deal conducted out of thin air. Prigozhin goes to Belarus and Wagner returns to the camps.

That suddenly solves everything.

How does it solve anything? Prigozhin spent the last two days complaining about a Russian attack on his troops which killed “huge numbers” of Wagner mercenaries. That could well have been staged. There are plenty of spare body parts around in the region.

Prigozhin was furious, at least in public. He said they wanted to disband Wagner. He’s been verbally attacking the Russian Ministry of Defense for months. His troops took Rostov in a few hours. They have now returned to field camps, locations unspecified.

Putin responded in kind to the “mutiny” and accused Prigozhin of treason. The FSB called for Prigozhin’s arrest. That was rather odd because if anyone was going to arrest him, it would have had to be them. It seemed things were about to come to a head. An actual civil war seemed quite likely.

…Then Guest Contestant Lukashenko steps in and all is well? How? Prigozhin says he agreed to this deal to prevent bloodshed. It’s a bit like a hyena asking for a salad. The Wagner Group is famous for causing bloodshed, not preventing it.

This video grab taken from handout footage posted on June 24, 2023, on the Telegram channel @razgruzka_vagnera shows Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin (C) walking in the city of Rostov-on-Don – Copyright TELEGRAM / @razgruzka_vagnera/AFP Handout

Belarus just happens to be the conveniently located theme park that is taking delivery of Russian nuclear missiles. It’s slated to become part of Russia again at some point. Belarussian fighters are fighting the Russians in Ukraine. Russian troops were also sent to Belarus recently.

Which leads to a pretty obvious question – What’s really happening in Russia?

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said his forces have entered the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don after vowing to topple the top military brass 

– Copyright AFP/File INTI OCON

A few pointers:

Putin was almost at actual war with his one and only successful military commander.

Putin’s own position is not secure, according to observers. He has to establish control and his own credibility. For the period of the “mutiny” he was just issuing statements, not conducting countermeasures. This is very much out of character, and nothing like his public image.

Nobody got assassinated, which is also most unusual.

Wagner forces have left Ukraine just as the Ukrainian counteroffensive begins.
The Wagner troops are severely worn and torn after months of heavy fighting.
The Russian army is on full defensive.

The Russian campaign in Ukraine has failed disastrously and is getting worse. They need to get out.

Wagner troops were able to move around with ease behind Russian lines with no opposition worth reporting.

Wagner “took” Rostov, a fairly sizeable city, with ease and trundled to within 200km of Moscow without any opposition at all.

Lukashenko doesn’t have the clout to turn on a light switch in Russia.

Russia publicized the “mutiny” on state broadcasts and social media. It’s not often any Russian government admits to any problems. Why the sudden PR campaign for Prigozhin?

All this played out in 48 hours.

How believable is any of this? A charade is one description.

A few more peculiar issues:Putin could have used the “mutiny” or something like it as an excuse to redeploy a lot of troops back to Russia and rebuild internal security without actually admitting defeat. He’s not doing that.

A few weeks ago, anti-Putin forces took areas around Belgorod and forced a Russian military response. That’s now a non-topic in the news. This just emphasizes the inherent instability in Russia before the Wagner mutiny.

Wagner can be seen to be defused as a risk with any supposed deal, whether any of this is real or not.

Prigozhin must have got something out of this deal, but what?

Belarus is progressively filling up with Russian troops, probably meaning backup for the projected Russian annexation or “reunification” as they call it.

Wagner can back up any Russian moves in Belarus or a new front against Ukraine to take the pressure off the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

There are many other major players in Russia. Who else is involved? Kremlin factions?

 The organized crime groups which control a lot of oil and black market assets? These people don’t play charades. They don’t like anything that disrupts business, either.
The much-disaffected, utterly humiliated and demoralized Russian army may not back Putin.

It just can’t be this simple. This complex pantomime indicates a lot of internal forces in play. Everything is still up in the air. Russia is falling to bits. The only question now is in what way it falls to bits.