Despite climate pledges, Canada and other fossil fuel producers set to scale up production: report Story by Benjamin Shingler • CBC
Canada is among a group of top fossil fuel-producing countries that are on pace to extract more oil and gas than would be consistent with agreed-upon international targets designed to limit global warming, according to a new analysis.
The report, released on Wednesday by the United Nations in collaboration with a team of international scientists, found that countries still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be required to limit warming to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.
The findings are at odds with government commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement, as well as with projections by the International Energy Agency that global demand for coal, oil and gas will peak within this decade.
The report's authors said more money needs to be allocated toward the transition to clean energy and that the top producers need to work together to limit production.
"We find that many governments are promoting fossil gas as an essential 'transition' fuel but with no apparent plans to transition away from it later," Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author of the report and a scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute, said in a statement.
"Science says we must start reducing global coal, oil and gas production and use now — along with scaling up clean energy, reducing methane emissions from all sources and other climate actions — to keep the 1.5 C goal alive."
Michael Lazarus, a senior scientist at the Stockholm institute and another one of the report's authors, said in a statement that wealthier countries "with the greatest capacities to transition away from fossil fuel production bear the greatest responsibility to do so while providing finance and support to help other countries do the same."
In a briefing held before the report's release, the researchers argued that the continued production of fossil fuels would undermine the transition to cleaner forms of energy.
"Given that governments, production plans and targets helped to influence, legitimize and justify continued fossil fuel dependence, there is a real risk that such plans are undermining the energy transition by locking in long-lived fossil fuel infrastructure," Achakulwisut said.
Canada's production set to climb
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who has become increasingly outspoken in his calls for action on climate change, said the report is "a startling indictment of runaway climate carelessness."
The report, citing figures from the Canada Energy Regulator, shows Canada — the fourth-largest oil producer in the world — is set to increase production through 2030 if there is no further action to reduce emissions, and by 25 per cent above 2022 levels by 2035.
(Under a net-zero scenario, where countries hit their climate goals, Canada's oil production is projected to peak by 2026 and decline to 73 per cent below 2022 levels by 2050.)
The report notes that the federal and provincial governments have recently approved new oil and gas developments.
By contrast, other fossil fuel-producing countries, such as Norway and the United Kingdom, are projected to scale down production. (The United States, the largest producer of fossil fuels, is on track to increase production.)
The 126-page document was prepared by the United Nations Environment Program, along with more than 80 researchers at universities, think-tanks and non-profit organizations around the world.
Environment and Sustainable Development Commissioner Jerry DeMarco, shown at a news conference in Ottawa on Tuesday, said the government is on track to miss its 2030 emissions targets.
It comes on the heels of another assessment of Canada's climate policy, an audit by federal Environment and Sustainable Development Commissioner Jerry DeMarco.
In a report released on Tuesday, DeMarco found that under its current plan, the country falls short of hitting the next greenhouse gas reduction target in 2030 by several million tonnes.
"Canada is the only G7 country that has not achieved any emissions reductions since 1990," he said. "But what this also shows is that it is doable. Some of these other places have quite different approaches to reducing emissions."
Responding to Tuesday's audit, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault told reporters that the federal government needs to do more.
He said the commissioner's audit used last year's emissions numbers and that by the end of 2023, the federal government will have some "good news" on emission reductions.
'A big elephant in the room'
Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, said in an interview with CBC News that the latest findings are further evidence of the need for the federal government to cut all subsidies to fossil fuel companies, both domestically and abroad, and impose a cap on oil and gas emissions.
"In the Canadian climate policy conversation, there has been a big elephant in the room, which is this continued expansion of oil and gas production," she said.
Environmental advocates, including Brouillette, said Canada will need to be a leader in working to reach an agreement on phasing out fossil fuels at the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, which takes place in Dubai, U.A.E., from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12.
"It requires global co-ordination, co-operation and agreement," she said.
Two Arabian oryxes find shade from the midday sun with the Burj Khalifa, the world's tallest building, shown in the distance in Dubai, U.A.E., on Saturday. The city is hosting the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12.
Julia Levin, associate director of national climate at Environmental Defence, said in an email that governments should be "going all in on rapidly phasing out oil and gas production and deploying reliable, effective and affordable solutions, like solar energy and heat pumps."
Instead, she said, "governments in Canada and around the world are doubling down on fossil fuel production."
Asked about the UN report's findings, Lisa Baiton, president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers based in Calgary, said in a statement, "Global demand for oil and natural gas is reaching record levels and growing, and Canada has an important role to play as an energy supplier to our trading partners around the world."
Based on recent federal government data, "Canada grew its conventional production while lowering greenhouse gas emissions over the last 10 years," she said, adding that the country "is well positioned to further develop our vast reserves and grow our position as a leader in decarbonization projects while ensuring a stable and affordable energy system."
Canada's emissions reductions unlikely to meet 2030 target, auditor general says
OTTAWA (Reuters) -The Canadian government's emissions reduction plan is insufficient to meet its target to cut emissions by 40% to 45% below the 2005 level by 2030, a report released by the country's auditor general said on Tuesday.
An audit found the government's plan insufficient because key measures needed to meet the 2030 target were delayed or not prioritized, according to a statement from the office of the auditor general.
Falling short of the minimum 40% target for 2030 would mean Canada missing its commitment under the United Nations' Paris Agreement on climate change.
Canada last year released its first real roadmap to meeting 2030 climate targets, laying out detailed plans and C$9.1 billion ($6.6 billion) in new spending to cut planet-warming carbon emissions after years failing to meet its goals.
The audit found that responsibility for reducing emissions was fragmented among multiple federal entities not directly accountable to Canada's Environment and Climate Change Minister, making progress and course correction difficult.
Canada has missed every emissions reduction target it has ever set but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has repeatedly said fighting climate change was one of his government's top priorities.
Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development Jerry DeMarco, who drafted the report, said the government could still meet its 2030 target "with drive, focus, and leadership".
The audit found that the plan had potentially strong measures for reducing emissions, such as carbon pricing and regulations, but it also has many weaknesses, "including missing and inconsistent information and unreliable projections that hindered the plan's credibility".
($1 = 1.3750 Canadian dollars)
(Reporting by Ismail Shakil and Steve Scherer in Ottawa; editing by David Evans)
We’re Producing Too Much Coal, Oil and Gas, Report Says
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production of oil, gas and coal, which will have the opposite effect.
The top-20 energy-producing nations intend by 2030 to extract double the amount of fossil fuels that would be consistent with the threshold needed to keep warming in check.
The contradiction between climate promises and energy production is nowhere more evident than in the United Arab Emirates, which is set to host the annual climate summit known as COP28, opening Nov. 30.
Diplomats, environmentalists and business leaders will gather in Dubai to hash out how each nation will reach its climate goals and debate whether to issue a statement on phasing out fossil fuels in the coming years.
In July, U.A.E. officials said the country by 2030 would cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 19% compared with 2019. But the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. plans to boost oil production capacity to 5 million barrels a day by 2027 from the current 4 million barrels a day.
The company also plans to increase liquid natural gas production from the current 6 million metric tons a year to 15.6 million metric tons by 2028, according to a new report issued Wednesday by the United Nations Environment Program, the nonprofit Stockholm Environment Institute and several other institutions.
The study analyzed 20 nations that produce 80% of the world’s energy. In 2015, world leaders met in Paris and pledged to slow coal, oil and gas production to keep the climate from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
Even positive efforts by some nations will be canceled out by the actions of others.
By 2030, the U.S. expects to cut coal production by 43%, while China plans a 15% reduction. That drop will be overshadowed by new coal production in India, Indonesia and Russia, the report said.
Although the U.S. is phasing out coal, its oil production will reach, and remain at, record levels of 19 million to 21 million barrels a day between 2024 and 2050. U.S. natural gas is projected to increase continually, reaching 1.2 trillion cubic meters in 2050, the report said. Most of that oil and gas is for export.
The report relied on projections from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and publicly available documents.
Some nations have joined initiatives such as the Global Methane Pledge and the Net-Zero Producers Forum to reduce the greenhouse emissions that scientists say are responsible for climate change. While these agreements might make fossil-fuel production less polluting, they won’t put a big dent in overall emissions, according to Michael Lazarus, a senior scientist at the SEI and a lead author of the report.
“None of these initiatives mentioned the need to reduce fossil fuel production itself, and none of these countries have committed to reduce coal, oil and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees,” Lazarus said. “Most of these countries, especially those with significant oil and gas reserves, plan to increase production.”
Even though energy from carbon-free solar and wind power is making huge gains, the benefits are diminished by ongoing fossil fuel production, said Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author of the report and a research fellow at the SEI.
“Despite encouraging signs of an emerging clean energy transition, the persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk and conflicts with governments’ climate commitments,” Achakulwisut said.
Write to Eric Niiler at eric.niiler@wsj.com
Issued on: 08/11/2023 -
Paris (AFP) – Plans to expand oil, gas and coal production by major fossil fuel countries would push the world far beyond agreed global warming limits and are "throwing humanity's future into question", the UN warned Wednesday.
The future of fossil fuels will be a key flashpoint when world leaders meet at the COP28 climate conference later this month, tasked with salvaging the world's agreed temperature thresholds.
Most of the world's leading producers of fossil fuels have pledged to achieve "net-zero" emissions by midcentury -- a target that should align with the Paris Agreement's aims to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since the pre-industrial era, and preferably a safer 1.5C.
But the annual United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Production Gap report makes it clear that the production plans of the top 20 producing countries -- including the United States, China, Russia, Australia, India and COP28 host United Arab Emirates -- are heading in the opposite direction.
It found that planned increases in production in these countries would produce 460 percent more coal, 82 percent more gas, and 29 percent more oil than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C.
Overall it found that governments' plans would produce 110 percent more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be in line with 1.5C, and 69 percent more than would be consistent with 2C.
"Governments' plans to expand fossil fuel production are undermining the energy transition needed to achieve net-zero emissions, throwing humanity's future into question," said Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director.
"Starting at COP28, nations must unite behind a managed and equitable phase-out of coal, oil and gas -- to ease the turbulence ahead and benefit every person on this planet."
Burning fossil fuels is by far the main cause of climate change, accounting for most of the pollution driving global warming and the ensuing barrage of temperature records, devastating weather disasters and sea level rise.
But countries have been reluctant to officially acknowledge this in global climate negotiations.
A statement from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the report was a "startling indictment of runaway climate carelessness".
"COP28 must send a clear signal that the fossil fuel age is out of gas –- that its end is inevitable," he said.
Big emitters
The UNEP report covers 20 countries that account for 82 percent of production and 73 percent of consumption of the world's fossil fuel supply.
The report said the United States -- the top oil and gas producer globally -- has encouraged accelerated domestic production of oil and gas since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, even as it ramped up climate policies.
US authorities forecast oil production will reach and remain at "record high levels" from 2024 to 2050, with gas production continuously increasing, the report said.
Meanwhile, UNEP said the world's biggest emitter China produces just over half of the world's supply of coal, the most polluting of the fossil fuels, as well as being a world leader in renewables.
Its domestic coal production reached a record in 2022 of around 4.5 billion tonnes, the report said, adding that production was expected to peak this decade.
'Hypocrisy'
Two years ago at the COP26 meeting in Glasgow countries agreed to "phase-down unabated coal power", the first time a fossil fuel had been explicitly mentioned in the negotiated agreement. Abated generally means to capture emissions before they go into the atmosphere.
UNEP hailed that pledge as a "significant milestone" but noted that since then production and use of fossil fuels have "reached record high levels".
The report "exposes the glaring hypocrisy at the heart of global climate action", said Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International, calling for wealthy polluters to lead by example.
Fossil fuels and the emissions they cause are expected to dominate climate talks in oil-rich UAE from November 30 to December 12.
The incoming COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber, who also leads the state-owned oil firm ADNOC, has said phasing down all fossil fuels is "inevitable and essential".
But the UAE has no concrete policies to support a "managed wind-down" of its own fossil fuels, the UNEP report found, noting plans by ADNOC to boost oil production capacity by 2027 as part of a $150 billion investment plan.
"World leaders can no longer look away from the undeniable truth: to meet the Paris temperature goal we need a managed and equitable phase-out of fossil fuel production," said Alex Rafalowicz, of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, which has been spearheaded by vulnerable island nations.
"People talk about a transition but it's not a transition if you're expanding the problem, and the UN is clear today -- the hole we're in is just getting bigger."
© 2023 AFP
2023 is "virtually certain" to be the warmest in 125,000 years, the EU climate monitor said as data showed last month was the world's hottest October.
This October was the hottest on record globally, the European Union's climate agency said on Wednesday, making 2023 "virtually certain" to be the warmest in 125,000 years.
Last month was 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the previous record for October in 2019, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said.
Parts of the United States and Mexico were left parched by drought during October as other areas on the planet saw wetter than normal conditions often due to storms and cyclones, the C3S said.
Sea surface temperatures were also the highest ever recorded for the month — a phenomenon driven by global warming that scientists say is a factor in storms becoming more violent and destructive.
Brazil: Dramatic drought in the Amazon
The Amazon rainforest is experiencing a severe drought: River levels dropped significantly, fish are dying and the human population is suffering as well. The weather phenomenon El Nino and climate change are to blame.
Boats can still travel on this section of the Amazon near Manacapuru, but its level is dangerously low. The Amazon region is experiencing a record drought already affecting 100,000 people. The Brazilian government is setting up a task force to help those who rely on the rivers as transport routes for food and other essentials.
1 | 99 images
Continued greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, along with the emergence this year of the El Nino weather pattern, which warms the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, has caused the heat to rise.
"October 2023 has seen exceptional temperature anomalies, following on from four months of global temperature records being obliterated," Samantha Burgess, C3S deputy director, said.
October was 1.7C warmer than an estimate of the October average for the preindustrial era, Copernicus added.
The record-breaking October means 2023 is now "virtually certain" to be the warmest year recorded, C3S said. The previous record was in 2016 — another El Nino year.
As world leaders prepare to meet at the UNCOP28 climate conference in Dubai in November, climate experts say that there is an urgent need for action to stop planet-warming emissions.
"The sense of urgency for ambitious climate action going into COP28 has never been higher," Burgess said.
The badges said they were there to participate in negotiations to curb climate change. They stated affiliations like the government of Brazil, Indigenous organizations of the Amazon, the Climate Registry. But in reality, the livelihoods of these participants were more aligned with what’s keeping the problem going: fossil fuels.
Close to 400 people connected in some way or another to fossil fuel industries attended last year’s United Nations’ climate talks in Egypt, a grouping that was larger than all but two of the national delegations sent by countries, according to a data analysis of the more than 24,000 participants by The Associated Press.
As United Nations leaders, scientists and others called for an eventual elimination of coal, oil and natural gas, various delegations included attendees who in some way owed part or all of their paychecks to fossil fuel burning. Many of these same people, and possibly even more connected to fossil fuels, will likely be at this year’s official climate talks, known as Conference of Parties or COP, being hosted by the United Arab Emirates, a major oil producing country.
“There’s outsized influence,” said Center for Biological Diversity’s Jean Su, who sits on the board that represents civil society and environmental groups at these meetings. “These COPs are often wining-and-dining fests for fossil fuel corporations that want to profit off of climate.”
While the presence is palpable—such as oil countries and companies with huge, flashy stands in the trades pavilions—the influence is hard to quantify because much of the negotiating is done behind closed doors.
These annual meetings, which have occurred since 1995, convene in different cities each year. The host city runs the event and sets the agenda. Because the upcoming summit, COP28, is in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates got to choose the president, picking the CEO of its national oil company, Sultan al-Jaber.
As to be expected at a summit focused on the environment, there are many environmental activists, more than 750 last year, by AP’s count. But they say their voices are not being heard, and instead the lobbying of fossil fuel interests are why climate talks have yet to produce an agreement to phase out coal, oil and natural gas, as scientists have repeatedly said must happen to stave off the worst impacts of climate change, like extreme weather events.
WIDE RANGE OF AFFILIATIONS
The AP analyzed the affiliations of attendees of COP27, reviewing details they offered on their badges. Those details were checked against lists of operators and owners of coal mines, oil fields and natural gas plants, as well as manufacturers of carbon-intensive materials like steel and cement.
Attendees in 2022 included top executives of BP, Shell, Equinor and TotalEnergies. The head of the world’s largest oil and gas firm, Saudi Aramco, was at the site on a “sideline” event. And al-Jaber, chief of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, was also there and will be in charge of this year’s climate negotiations. The operations and products of those companies and others are huge contributors to climate change.
It wasn’t just fossil fuel giants that showed up.
Take Mercuria Energy. The Switzerland-based firm calls itself “one of the world’s largest energy traders,” with 69% of their 2022 traded volumes in oil and natural gas. The firm is also a part-owner in Vesta Terminals, which operates storage terminals that hold crude oil, petroleum products and other liquids, as well as a marine fuels company called Minerva Bunkering.
Mercuria sent six people to the COP in Egypt. Its chief trader, Magid Shenouda, went as part of the Coordinating Body of Indigenous Organizations of the Amazon Basin. Others from Mercuria went as members of delegations for the Brazilian government, the International Chamber of Commerce, the International Emissions Trading Association and Winrock International, a nonprofit that works to help poorer countries with social, environmental and agricultural issues.
Alden Meyer, who has been to all but one COP and is an analyst for the European think-tank E3G, says the big numbers of attendees connected to fossil fuels show these industries see this “either a threat or maybe an opportunity or both for their business,” but the system isn’t set up to tell motives and lobbying efforts.
Meyer says the fossil fuel interests have huge influence over the event, but the influence begins ahead of the talks.
Last year, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Global Energy Institute sent four employees to the summit. Marty Durbin, the institute’s president and former executive of the American Petroleum Institute, says the institute is a “huge” supporter of natural gas and the industry should have a voice in the talks.
“I don’t know why we’re trying to push people away instead of saying, ‘Come in and let’s all work on this together,’” said Durbin, speaking from an oil and gas conference in October in Abu Dhabi.
Su disagrees, saying: “It’s the fox guarding the henhouse and they should not be at the table when it’s governments who have the jurisdiction to regulate.”
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Seth Borenstein And Mary Katherine Wildeman, The Associated Press
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