National security is at risk if RCMP's federal policing problems aren't fixed, committee warns

Story by Catharine Tunney •
 

The federal government urgently needs to change how the RCMP's federal policing wing functions or risk seeing national security files fall through the cracks, says a special intelligence and security committee.

"National security is at risk. The security of Canadians is at risk." said Liberal MP David McGuinty, chair of the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians.

"What's at risk is missing something."

The committee, often referred to as NSICOP, tabled a report Tuesday examining the RCMP's federal mandate, which includes foreign interference, violent extremism and terrorism, organized crime and financial crime. 

The committee concluded that federal policing is not "as effective, efficient, flexible or accountable as it needs to be to protect Canada and Canadians from the most significant national security and criminal threats." 

NSICOP's 91-page report says the RCMP's federal mandate is hindered by a number of resource issues, including the force's focus on boots-on-the-ground policing. The RCMP is under contract as the provincial police service in most provinces. It's also the police force in150 municipalities, all three territories and more than 600 Indigenous communities. 

The special committee said the dual mandate creates "undesirable effects."

"We're certainly calling on the federal government to to examine the relationship between contract policing and federal policing inside the organization," said McGuinty

Training outdated, recruits scarce

The committee, made up of MPs from the four recognized parties and senators, found that while federal policing resources may be used to support contract policing, resources seldom flow the other way.

In their report, they blame the situation in part on "weak governance."

NSICOP found that, for example, the RCMP's federal policing side doesn't always have a say in setting national policing priorities.

"Divisions retain significant discretion in the federal policing prioritization process, undermining the ability of the federal policing program to track ongoing investigations and expenditures, or to redirect resources to higher priorities," said the report.

The RCMP's federal policing side is also losing members to contract policing, the report shows.

According to the report, federal policing has lost 600 regular members over the past nine years and was operating with a 13 per cent vacancy rate among regular members in the 2022-23 fiscal year.

David McGuinty, chair of the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians, holds a news conference on March 12, 2020. 

(Fred Chartrand/The Canadian Press)© Provided by cbc.ca

Part of the problem, says the report, is that the RCMP's contract obligations take priority when personnel gaps must be filled. The force has only recently pivoted to recruiting directly into federal policing.

Those recruits who do join federal policing may start out on the back foot.

"As of 2021, all federal policing training for investigations, intelligence and covert operations was outdated, with programs failing to keep pace with new criminal threats, recommendations from audits and reviews, or changing legislation," said the report.

The report goes on to say the RCMP has only been able to sustain a federal policing division on such a modest budget — about $959 million of the force's $6 billion budget — because the division is losing officers.

"I dub it as managing by attrition," said McGuinty. "The funds associated with these vacancies have been used to maintain investigations and activities in the federal policing mandate. They're robbing Peter to pay Paul."

Data practices 'disturbing,' says NSICOP chair

In an interview with CBC News, McGuinty called the way data is handled within the RCMP "disturbing." 

The committee said the RCMP lacks standardized methods for data management, meaning its information often includes incomplete records, outdated reporting, inconsistencies, incorrect data and missing information.  

"The data systems don't support evidence-based decision making," said McGuinty. "So that's a very, very big surprise.

NSICOP made five recommendations, including a call for more resources and amendments to the RCMP Act.

The first recommendation on its list is for the minister of public safety to provide clear and regular direction to the RCMP to strengthen federal policing. The report says that should include direction on governance, financial controls, human resources, recruiting and training, and information management.

McGuinty said the RCMP's problems need to be a "high priority" for the federal government. 

The NSICOP report found that while federal resources may be used in support of the contract mandate, the opposite isn't always true.

 (Ethan Cairns/Canadian Press)

"What we've found in looking under the hood is a series of issues that have just simply convinced us that we've got to up our game very, very quickly on this. The minister has got to take responsibility," he said.

"I would lay a lot of the responsibility now at the feet of the the minister of public safety, who's got to step up and work."

A spokesperson for Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said he was not not available to comment. 

Look at police independence: NSICOP

The report also recommends the government consider codifying police independence into the RCMP Act.

A federal minister is not allowed to interfere in investigations, but they can issue direction to the RCMP — a word that has caused confusion and scandal in the past.

Former RCMP commissioner Brenda Lucki was accused of meddling in the 2020 mass shooting probe in Nova Scotia by pushing investigators to go public with the weapons the gunman used at the request of the Liberal government. She and then-minister of Emergency Preparedness Bill Blair denied the accusation.

"You can have a specific beginning, middle and end role for a minister to tell the RCMP what to do without having the ministers step onto operational soil," said McGuinty.

The report notes that while the RCMP has initiated reforms to address deficiencies in federal policing, "most are still in their infancy and could easily be hollowed out by a tendency towards the status quo."

In an emailed statement, the RCMP said it welcomes NSICOP's report.

"The need for the RCMP to be equipped and able to deliver on its mandate is more critical than ever," said spokesperson Robin Percival.

"Federal policing is undergoing transformational changes that leverage and build upon past work to ensure it is a modern, sustainable and world-class policing entity, prepared to meet current and future federal law enforcement challenges head on."

NSICOP said it decided to review the RCMP's federal work in February 2021 to get a baseline understanding of the Mounties' mandates and capabilities.

Since then, the public inquiry investigating the one of worst mass shootings in Canadian history released its damning final report. The Mass Casualty Commission, which investigated the April 2020 massacre in Nova Scotia that killed 22 people, called on the public safety minister to review and restructure the RCMP.

NSICOP was created in 2017 with a mandate to review national security measures. Committee members are given top security clearances to permit them to review classified materials and are sworn to secrecy.

Residential school records released day before archbishop testifies at Senate

OTTAWA — A Catholic archdiocese that operated four Indigenous residential schools in Manitoba and Saskatchewan has finally surrendered a long-awaited trove of records that may hold clues about their tragic history.

The Archdiocese of Keewatin-Le Pas gave the documents to the National Centre for Truth and Reconciliation on Monday — just one day before Archbishop Murray Chatlain's appearance before a key Senate committee. 

Word of the disclosure comes as church leaders face persistent accusations — including from Indigenous leaders who testified before the same committee — that they are dragging their heels on releasing records.

In 2021, a staff member found a box of files containing some residential school lists, and the archdiocese agreed to digitize the records in consultation with the national centre, Chatlain testified. 

But until Monday, when the records were handed over, copies had been shared only with a local historical society — and are likely the last of the records the archdiocese has to release, he added.

"Maybe there's a little surprise, but we are absolutely not holding anything back," Chatlain said. "But, for sure, the vast majority is there — everything we know of."

The Senate committee on Indigenous Peoples has been investigating why some organizations aren't releasing records sooner. Asked by Sen. Scott Tannas if it will take another two years should more be uncovered, Chatlain responded: "No."

A report from Kimberly Murray, Ottawa's special interlocutor for missing children and unmarked graves, said this summer that some governments and churches continue to withhold records about residential schools and associated sites.

Senators have been hearing from experts and pressing religious leaders on why that is the case, and why some residential school staff members who are still alive haven't been made available to share details about their experiences.

An estimated 150,000 First Nations, Inuit and Métis children were forced to attend residential schools. More than 60 per cent of the schools were run by the Catholic Church.

The Truth and Reconciliation Commission, which was formed through the settlement agreement between survivors and the federal government, documented and studied the legacy of residential schools. The commission found physical and sexual abuse, cultural destruction, poor education, malnutrition and widespread illness.

The discovery of possible unmarked graves at former residential school sites in recent years, as well as Pope Francis's dramatic apology last year to Indigenous Peoples, have put the schools, their history and their oversight under fresh scrutiny.

Chatlain said his diocese is looking at developing a memorandum of agreement with the national centre to access sacramental records and other areas of their archives that may be helpful.

Velichor Abaranam Jerome, a general archivist of the General House in Rome, also testified Tuesday. He described a visit members of the centre made to Rome to view their archives, and their efforts to get those documents released. 

But last month, the centre's head archivist testified that records of about a dozen Oblate priests convicted of crimes against children in residential schools weren't made available to copy, citing privacy policies regarding personnel records.

Jerome said he was unaware of any problems in copying documents, saying he didn't know if there are any issues outside his jurisdiction.

Indigenous Peoples have repeatedly told the committee it is nearly impossible to access Catholic Church records surrounding residential schools.

Last month, Saskatchewan Treaty Commissioner Mary Musqua-Culbertson described staff having to sign a 21-year non-disclosure agreement to access any records at St. Paul University in Ottawa — only to come up empty-handed.

"Who specifically asks for a 21-year NDA? Who within their organization needs to die within those 21 years that is being protected?" Musqua-Culbertson asked. 

"I'm very frank about this because this affects my life, my legacy, my children."

Sen. David Arnot called it "incomprehensible" that some are going to such efforts to keep the records from being released.

Raymond Frogner, the centre's head of archives, said the scope of residential school disclosure needs to be widened beyond religious institutions to include areas like the education, health care and justice system.

Even as head of the archives, Frogner said he has challenges of his own trying to access residential school records.

"I can’t even find the records of my mother who went to Shaftesbury Mission in northern Alberta," Frogner said. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2023.

Alessia Passafiume, The Canadian Press

Over the past six years, governments proposed launching over one million satellites, but where will they all go?

Story by Ewan Wright, PhD candidate, Interdisciplinary Studies, University of British Columbia 

Andrew Falle, Research Coordinator and Junior Fellow, Outer Space Institute, University of British Columbia

 • THE CONVERSATION

As the number of satellites in orbit increase, so will the possibilities of space debris. There are currently 8,000 satellites in orbit, but hundreds of thousands more are being proposed.© (Shutterstock)

In September 2021, Rwanda announced that it was planning to launch over 300,000 satellites. Three months later, a Canadian company, having previously launched two dozen CubeSats, said it would launch an additional 100,000. Then, a French company did likewise. And SpaceX, which has already launched around 5,000 satellites, now has plans for over 60,000 more.

There are currently only about 8,000 active satellites in orbit. What’s going on?

Before a satellite is launched, a nation state must file its proposed satellite system with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) to coordinate radiofrequency spectrum on behalf of the satellite operator, which could be a company, university or government agency.

These filings are made years ahead of the satellite launch, so the ITU can oversee coordination between different satellite operators and ensure that new satellite signals don’t drown existing ones out.



The UN International Telecommunication Union offices in Geneva, Switzerland.

One million filings

In a new Policy Forum article published in Science, we found that, between 2017 and 2022, countries collectively made filings for over one million satellites across more than 300 separate systems of multiple satellites working together, known as constellations.

This creates two intertwined problems. Either many of these satellites will actually be launched, causing an environmental crisis through thousands of rocket launches into increasingly crowded Earth orbits, or operators are filing for more satellites than they intend to launch, perhaps with a view to hedging their bets, getting investor attention or selling the portions of radio spectrum for profit

A closer look shows that the latter option is more likely.

Congested orbits

If even 10 per cent of the filed-for satellites launch, low Earth orbit would become congested with over 100,000 additional satellites. Collisions between satellites would generate space debris, which would in turn cause further collisions.

Reentering satellites would burn up in the atmosphere, potentially affecting the climate, while surviving pieces of debris might strike people or aircraft. We already face these risks today, but they would increase by an order of magnitude.

Read more: Airplanes face a growing risk of being hit by uncontrolled re-entries of rockets used to launch satellites

The problem may be more mundane, meaning that satellite operators are fiddling the numbers. Take E-Space, the French company. It is behind both the 337,320-satellite constellation filed through Rwanda in 2021, and a 116,640-satellite constellation filed through France in 2023.

Despite these ambitious filings, the company’s CEO, Greg Wyler, said it is planning for “at least 30,000 satellites,” while its director of product development mentioned “just a few thousand satellites.” Are any of these numbers real?



Starlink satellites passing over New Mexico.

© (NOIRLab/M. Lewinsky)

Countries of convenience

There are more signs that companies are attempting to game the ITU system.

OneWeb, which has 634 satellites in orbit, has made filings for 6,118 more satellites through three countries: Mexico, France and the United Kingdom.

SpaceX has made filings through the United States, Norway, Germany and now Tonga. It is unclear why this is happening, but all these states have different administrative rules — and fees — associated with satellite filings.

In the global shipping industry, flag-of-convenience governments register ships for companies that seek lower operating costs through looser regulations and lax enforcement. Over 44 per cent of the world’s ships by tonnage are registered in just three countries: Panama, Liberia and the Marshall Islands. These ships historically have worse safety records and poorer labour conditions.

Tonga, now home to SpaceX’s October 2023 filing for 29,998 satellites, has filed for satellites before. In the 1980s, it filed for 16 satellite slots, eventually gaining nine slots which it promptly leased to foreign operators.

Other satellite operators weren’t happy; one even moved a satellite into one of Tonga’s slots in protest. Yet Tonga made millions of dollars through the leases.
Updating the rules

The recent megaconstellation filings are of unprecedented size, raising multiple challenges. The ITU aims to prevent interference between satellites by modelling their signal power output, and the proliferation of satellites and the splitting of filings between different states are making that difficult.

The ITU — which is a United Nations agency that predates the UN, making it the oldest agency in the organization — has well-established processes for updating its rules. The 193 member states meet every three to four years at World Radiocommunication Conferences, where new rules are debated and adopted.

AN INSTITUTION THE ANARCHIST SCIENTIST PETER KROPOTKIN ENDORSED (HE ALSO ENDORSED THE WORLD POSTAL UNION)

In 2019, member states agreed to create “milestones” for the deployment of satellite constellations: launch 10 per cent of satellites within two years of the first launch, 50 per cent within five years and the whole constellation within seven years. However, the first satellite can be launched up to seven years after the filing, giving companies considerable time and flexibility.

The ITU should consider speeding up this process. It could also introduce fees that disincentivise large or speculative filings.
Environmental responsibility

The Secretary General of the ITU, Doreen Bogdan-Martin, has said the ITU is increasingly prioritizing space sustainability. But it must balance that goal with its mandate, which focuses on radio spectrum management.

From Nov. 20 to Dec. 15, 2023, the ITU member states will convene in Dubai for this year’s World Radiocommunication Conference. But don’t expect radical changes this year; any proposals introduced now are unlikely to be finalised before the next conference in 2027.

And who knows what SpaceX, E-Space and other companies will get up to before then?

This article is republished from The Conversation, >, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and analysis to help you make sense of our complex world.

Read more:

Space is getting crowded with satellites and space junk. How do we avoid collisions?

Starlink satellites are ‘leaking’ signals that interfere with our most sensitive radio telescopes

Electric-vehicle chargers distributed unequally in Canada, environment audit finds

The Canadian Press

OTTAWA — The national infrastructure program to install electric chargers for passenger vehicles is too concentrated in a small number of provinces and has no data to show where the biggest gaps are, a new audit says.

The report was one of several that Environment Commissioner Jerry DeMarco tabled in the House of Commons on Tuesday.

DeMarco said the good news is that Canada appears on track to hit its goal of installing 33,500 charging ports by 2026.

As of July, the Zero Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Program had approved and funded 33,887 charging ports. About 13 per cent of them were already operational, and the rest are supposed to be up and running by March 2026, said DeMarco.

However, he said almost nine in 10 of the ports that had been funded were in Ontario, Quebec or British Columbia.

There were no targets set to identify where need was the greatest, or to ensure that lower-income communities and rural and remote areas were served by the program, the audit found.

It's critical for Canadians to know that charging stations are available so they have confidence to make the switch to electric vehicles, DeMarco said.

With Canada mandating that all new passenger vehicles sold must be electric by 2035, he said, every Canadian will be affected by charging infrastructure, or the lack of it.

DeMarco also said the program isn't monitoring how well the stations are operating after they are installed.

In a second audit, the environment commissioner found that the federal government has set lofty targets for converting its own vehicle fleets to electric, but the departments with the most vehicles are not making the transition fast enough.

DeMarco said Canada wants eight in 10 of its federal fleet vehicles to be electric by 2030, but as of March 2022, only 586 of more than 17,000 vehicles had been replaced with electric models.

The audit said at the rate Canada is transitioning its fleet to electric vehicles, only 13 per cent, not 80 per cent, will be electric by 2030.

Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said he agrees with all of DeMarco's recommendations.

"A number of the recommendations he's made we've actually been working on for some time, including things like ensuring a broader distribution of electric-vehicle charging across the country," Wilkinson said.

Wilkinson said he has also been in discussions with his department about ensuring the reliability of charging stations.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2023.

Mia Rabson, The Canadian Press

Despite climate pledges, Canada and other fossil fuel producers set to scale up production: report  Story by Benjamin Shingler • CBC

                                           

 

Canada is among a group of top fossil fuel-producing countries that are on pace to extract more oil and gas than would be consistent with agreed-upon international targets designed to limit global warming, according to a new analysis.

The report, released on Wednesday by the United Nations in collaboration with a team of international scientists, found that countries still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be required to limit warming to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.

The findings are at odds with government commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement, as well as with projections by the International Energy Agency that global demand for coal, oil and gas will peak within this decade.

The report's authors said more money needs to be allocated toward the transition to clean energy and that the top producers need to work together to limit production.

"We find that many governments are promoting fossil gas as an essential 'transition' fuel but with no apparent plans to transition away from it later," Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author of the report and a scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute, said in a statement.

"Science says we must start reducing global coal, oil and gas production and use now — along with scaling up clean energy, reducing methane emissions from all sources and other climate actions — to keep the 1.5 C goal alive."

Michael Lazarus, a senior scientist at the Stockholm institute and another one of the report's authors, said in a statement that wealthier countries "with the greatest capacities to transition away from fossil fuel production bear the greatest responsibility to do so while providing finance and support to help other countries do the same."

In a briefing held before the report's release, the researchers argued that the continued production of fossil fuels would undermine the transition to cleaner forms of energy.

"Given that governments, production plans and targets helped to influence, legitimize and justify continued fossil fuel dependence, there is a real risk that such plans are undermining the energy transition by locking in long-lived fossil fuel infrastructure," Achakulwisut said.

Canada's production set to climb

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who has become increasingly outspoken in his calls for action on climate change, said the report is "a startling indictment of runaway climate carelessness."

The report, citing figures from the Canada Energy Regulator, shows Canada — the fourth-largest oil producer in the world — is set to increase production through 2030 if there is no further action to reduce emissions, and by 25 per cent above 2022 levels by 2035.

(Under a net-zero scenario, where countries hit their climate goals, Canada's oil production is projected to peak by 2026 and decline to 73 per cent below 2022 levels by 2050.)

The report notes that the federal and provincial governments have recently approved new oil and gas developments.

By contrast, other fossil fuel-producing countries, such as Norway and the United Kingdom, are projected to scale down production. (The United States, the largest producer of fossil fuels, is on track to increase production.)

The 126-page document was prepared by the United Nations Environment Program, along with more than 80 researchers at universities, think-tanks and non-profit organizations around the world.

Environment and Sustainable Development Commissioner Jerry DeMarco, shown at a news conference in Ottawa on Tuesday, said the government is on track to miss its 2030 emissions targets.

 (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)

It comes on the heels of another assessment of Canada's climate policy, an audit by federal Environment and Sustainable Development Commissioner Jerry DeMarco.

In a report released on Tuesday, DeMarco found that under its current plan, the country falls short of hitting the next greenhouse gas reduction target in 2030 by several million tonnes.

"Canada is the only G7 country that has not achieved any emissions reductions since 1990," he said. "But what this also shows is that it is doable. Some of these other places have quite different approaches to reducing emissions."

 

Responding to Tuesday's audit, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault told reporters that the federal government needs to do more.

He said the commissioner's audit used last year's emissions numbers and that by the end of 2023, the federal government will have some "good news" on emission reductions.

'A big elephant in the room'

Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, said in an interview with CBC News that the latest findings are further evidence of the need for the federal government to cut all subsidies to fossil fuel companies, both domestically and abroad, and impose a cap on oil and gas emissions.

"In the Canadian climate policy conversation, there has been a big elephant in the room, which is this continued expansion of oil and gas production," she said.

Environmental advocates, including Brouillette, said Canada will need to be a leader in working to reach an agreement on phasing out fossil fuels at the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, which takes place in Dubai, U.A.E., from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12.

"It requires global co-ordination, co-operation and agreement," she said.

Two Arabian oryxes find shade from the midday sun with the Burj Khalifa, the world's tallest building, shown in the distance in Dubai, U.A.E., on Saturday. The city is hosting the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12.

 (Jon Gambrell/The Associated Press)

Julia Levin, associate director of national climate at Environmental Defence, said in an email that governments should be "going all in on rapidly phasing out oil and gas production and deploying reliable, effective and affordable solutions, like solar energy and heat pumps."

Instead, she said, "governments in Canada and around the world are doubling down on fossil fuel production."

Asked about the UN report's findings, Lisa Baiton, president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers based in Calgary, said in a statement, "Global demand for oil and natural gas is reaching record levels and growing, and Canada has an important role to play as an energy supplier to our trading partners around the world."

Based on recent federal government data, "Canada grew its conventional production while lowering greenhouse gas emissions over the last 10 years," she said, adding that the country "is well positioned to further develop our vast reserves and grow our position as a leader in decarbonization projects while ensuring a stable and affordable energy system."

Canada's emissions reductions unlikely to meet 2030 target, auditor general says

Story by Reuters  • 

OTTAWA (Reuters) -The Canadian government's emissions reduction plan is insufficient to meet its target to cut emissions by 40% to 45% below the 2005 level by 2030, a report released by the country's auditor general said on Tuesday.

An audit found the government's plan insufficient because key measures needed to meet the 2030 target were delayed or not prioritized, according to a statement from the office of the auditor general.

Falling short of the minimum 40% target for 2030 would mean Canada missing its commitment under the United Nations' Paris Agreement on climate change.

Canada last year released its first real roadmap to meeting 2030 climate targets, laying out detailed plans and C$9.1 billion ($6.6 billion) in new spending to cut planet-warming carbon emissions after years failing to meet its goals.

The audit found that responsibility for reducing emissions was fragmented among multiple federal entities not directly accountable to Canada's Environment and Climate Change Minister, making progress and course correction difficult.

Canada has missed every emissions reduction target it has ever set but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has repeatedly said fighting climate change was one of his government's top priorities.

Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development Jerry DeMarco, who drafted the report, said the government could still meet its 2030 target "with drive, focus, and leadership".

The audit found that the plan had potentially strong measures for reducing emissions, such as carbon pricing and regulations, but it also has many weaknesses, "including missing and inconsistent information and unreliable projections that hindered the plan's credibility".

($1 = 1.3750 Canadian dollars)

(Reporting by Ismail Shakil and Steve Scherer in Ottawa; editing by David Evans)

We’re Producing Too Much Coal, Oil and Gas, Report Says

World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.

Now they are stepping up production of oil, gas and coal, which will have the opposite effect.

The top-20 energy-producing nations intend by 2030 to extract double the amount of fossil fuels that would be consistent with the threshold needed to keep warming in check.

The contradiction between climate promises and energy production is nowhere more evident than in the United Arab Emirates, which is set to host the annual climate summit known as COP28, opening Nov. 30.

Diplomats, environmentalists and business leaders will gather in Dubai to hash out how each nation will reach its climate goals and debate whether to issue a statement on phasing out fossil fuels in the coming years.

In July, U.A.E. officials said the country by 2030 would cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 19% compared with 2019. But the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. plans to boost oil production capacity to 5 million barrels a day by 2027 from the current 4 million barrels a day.

The company also plans to increase liquid natural gas production from the current 6 million metric tons a year to 15.6 million metric tons by 2028, according to a new report issued Wednesday by the United Nations Environment Program, the nonprofit Stockholm Environment Institute and several other institutions.

The study analyzed 20 nations that produce 80% of the world’s energy. In 2015, world leaders met in Paris and pledged to slow coal, oil and gas production to keep the climate from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

Even positive efforts by some nations will be canceled out by the actions of others.

By 2030, the U.S. expects to cut coal production by 43%, while China plans a 15% reduction. That drop will be overshadowed by new coal production in India, Indonesia and Russia, the report said.

Although the U.S. is phasing out coal, its oil production will reach, and remain at, record levels of 19 million to 21 million barrels a day between 2024 and 2050. U.S. natural gas is projected to increase continually, reaching 1.2 trillion cubic meters in 2050, the report said. Most of that oil and gas is for export.

The report relied on projections from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and publicly available documents.

Some nations have joined initiatives such as the Global Methane Pledge and the Net-Zero Producers Forum to reduce the greenhouse emissions that scientists say are responsible for climate change. While these agreements might make fossil-fuel production less polluting, they won’t put a big dent in overall emissions, according to Michael Lazarus, a senior scientist at the SEI and a lead author of the report.

“None of these initiatives mentioned the need to reduce fossil fuel production itself, and none of these countries have committed to reduce coal, oil and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees,” Lazarus said. “Most of these countries, especially those with significant oil and gas reserves, plan to increase production.”

Even though energy from carbon-free solar and wind power is making huge gains, the benefits are diminished by ongoing fossil fuel production, said Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author of the report and a research fellow at the SEI.

“Despite encouraging signs of an emerging clean energy transition, the persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk and conflicts with governments’ climate commitments,” Achakulwisut said.

Write to Eric Niiler at eric.niiler@wsj.com

Fossil fuel plans by producing nations threaten global climate goals: UN

Overall it found that governments' plans would produce 110 percent more fossil fuels  in 2030  than would be in line with 1.5C, and 69 percent more than would be consistent with 2C.

Issued on: 08/11/2023 -

Countries' planned fossil fuel expansion would push the world beyond the 1.5C limit 

© Patrick T. FALLON / AFP/File

Paris (AFP) – Plans to expand oil, gas and coal production by major fossil fuel countries would push the world far beyond agreed global warming limits and are "throwing humanity's future into question", the UN warned Wednesday.

The future of fossil fuels will be a key flashpoint when world leaders meet at the COP28 climate conference later this month, tasked with salvaging the world's agreed temperature thresholds.

Most of the world's leading producers of fossil fuels have pledged to achieve "net-zero" emissions by midcentury -- a target that should align with the Paris Agreement's aims to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since the pre-industrial era, and preferably a safer 1.5C.

But the annual United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Production Gap report makes it clear that the production plans of the top 20 producing countries -- including the United States, China, Russia, Australia, India and COP28 host United Arab Emirates -- are heading in the opposite direction.

It found that planned increases in production in these countries would produce 460 percent more coal, 82 percent more gas, and 29 percent more oil than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C.

Overall it found that governments' plans would produce 110 percent more fossil fuels  in 2030  than would be in line with 1.5C, and 69 percent more than would be consistent with 2C.

"Governments' plans to expand fossil fuel production are undermining the energy transition needed to achieve net-zero emissions, throwing humanity's future into question," said Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director.

"Starting at COP28, nations must unite behind a managed and equitable phase-out of coal, oil and gas -- to ease the turbulence ahead and benefit every person on this planet."

Burning fossil fuels is by far the main cause of climate change, accounting for most of the pollution driving global warming and the ensuing barrage of temperature records, devastating weather disasters and sea level rise.

But countries have been reluctant to officially acknowledge this in global climate negotiations.

A statement from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the report was a "startling indictment of runaway climate carelessness".

"COP28 must send a clear signal that the fossil fuel age is out of gas –- that its end is inevitable," he said.

Big emitters

The UNEP report covers 20 countries that account for 82 percent of production and 73 percent of consumption of the world's fossil fuel supply.

The report said the United States -- the top oil and gas producer globally -- has encouraged accelerated domestic production of oil and gas since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, even as it ramped up climate policies.

US authorities forecast oil production will reach and remain at "record high levels" from 2024 to 2050, with gas production continuously increasing, the report said.

Meanwhile, UNEP said the world's biggest emitter China produces just over half of the world's supply of coal, the most polluting of the fossil fuels, as well as being a world leader in renewables.

Its domestic coal production reached a record in 2022 of around 4.5 billion tonnes, the report said, adding that production was expected to peak this decade.
'Hypocrisy'

Two years ago at the COP26 meeting in Glasgow countries agreed to "phase-down unabated coal power", the first time a fossil fuel had been explicitly mentioned in the negotiated agreement. Abated generally means to capture emissions before they go into the atmosphere.

UNEP hailed that pledge as a "significant milestone" but noted that since then production and use of fossil fuels have "reached record high levels".

The report "exposes the glaring hypocrisy at the heart of global climate action", said Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International, calling for wealthy polluters to lead by example.

Fossil fuel emissions © Sylvie HUSSON, Paz PIZARRO, Sophie RAMIS / AFP

Fossil fuels and the emissions they cause are expected to dominate climate talks in oil-rich UAE from November 30 to December 12.

The incoming COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber, who also leads the state-owned oil firm ADNOC, has said phasing down all fossil fuels is "inevitable and essential".

But the UAE has no concrete policies to support a "managed wind-down" of its own fossil fuels, the UNEP report found, noting plans by ADNOC to boost oil production capacity by 2027 as part of a $150 billion investment plan.

"World leaders can no longer look away from the undeniable truth: to meet the Paris temperature goal we need a managed and equitable phase-out of fossil fuel production," said Alex Rafalowicz, of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, which has been spearheaded by vulnerable island nations.

"People talk about a transition but it's not a transition if you're expanding the problem, and the UN is clear today -- the hole we're in is just getting bigger."

© 2023 AFP

2023 likely hottest year recorded: EU monitor

2023 is "virtually certain" to be the warmest in 125,000 years, the EU climate monitor said as data showed last month was the world's hottest October.

This October was the hottest on record globally, the European Union's climate agency said on Wednesday, making 2023 "virtually certain" to be the warmest in 125,000 years.

Last month was 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the previous record for October in 2019, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said.

Parts of the United States and Mexico were left parched by drought during October as other areas on the planet saw wetter than normal conditions often due to storms and cyclones, the C3S said.

Sea surface temperatures were also the highest ever recorded for the month — a phenomenon driven by global warming that scientists say is a factor in storms becoming more violent and destructive.

Brazil: Dramatic drought in the Amazon

The Amazon rainforest is experiencing a severe drought: River levels dropped significantly, fish are dying and the human population is suffering as well. The weather phenomenon El Nino and climate change are to blame.

Image: MICHAEL DANTAS/AFP/Getty Images

Narrow lane
Boats can still travel on this section of the Amazon near Manacapuru, but its level is dangerously low. The Amazon region is experiencing a record drought already affecting 100,000 people. The Brazilian government is setting up a task force to help those who rely on the rivers as transport routes for food and other essentials.

Image: Edmar Barros/AP/dpa/picture alliance

1 | 99 images

Continued greenhouse gas emissions from human activity, along with the emergence this year of the El Nino weather pattern, which warms the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, has caused the heat to rise.

"October 2023 has seen exceptional temperature anomalies, following on from four months of global temperature records being obliterated," Samantha Burgess, C3S deputy director, said.

October was 1.7C warmer than an estimate of the October average for the preindustrial era, Copernicus added.

The record-breaking October means 2023 is now "virtually certain" to be the warmest year recorded, C3S said. The previous record was in 2016 — another El Nino year.

As world leaders prepare to meet at the UNCOP28 climate conference in Dubai in November, climate experts say that there is an urgent need for action to stop planet-warming emissions.

"The sense of urgency for ambitious climate action going into COP28 has never been higher," Burgess said.

Fossil fuel interests have large, yet often murky, presence at climate talks, AP analysis finds

The badges said they were there to participate in negotiations to curb climate change. They stated affiliations like the government of Brazil, Indigenous organizations of the Amazon, the Climate Registry. But in reality, the livelihoods of these participants were more aligned with what’s keeping the problem going: fossil fuels.

Close to 400 people connected in some way or another to fossil fuel industries attended last year’s United Nations’ climate talks in Egypt, a grouping that was larger than all but two of the national delegations sent by countries, according to a data analysis of the more than 24,000 participants by The Associated Press.

As United Nations leaders, scientists and others called for an eventual elimination of coal, oil and natural gas, various delegations included attendees who in some way owed part or all of their paychecks to fossil fuel burning. Many of these same people, and possibly even more connected to fossil fuels, will likely be at this year’s official climate talks, known as Conference of Parties or COP, being hosted by the United Arab Emirates, a major oil producing country.

“There’s outsized influence,” said Center for Biological Diversity’s Jean Su, who sits on the board that represents civil society and environmental groups at these meetings. “These COPs are often wining-and-dining fests for fossil fuel corporations that want to profit off of climate.”

While the presence is palpable—such as oil countries and companies with huge, flashy stands in the trades pavilions—the influence is hard to quantify because much of the negotiating is done behind closed doors.

These annual meetings, which have occurred since 1995, convene in different cities each year. The host city runs the event and sets the agenda. Because the upcoming summit, COP28, is in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates got to choose the president, picking the CEO of its national oil company, Sultan al-Jaber.

As to be expected at a summit focused on the environment, there are many environmental activists, more than 750 last year, by AP’s count. But they say their voices are not being heard, and instead the lobbying of fossil fuel interests are why climate talks have yet to produce an agreement to phase out coal, oil and natural gas, as scientists have repeatedly said must happen to stave off the worst impacts of climate change, like extreme weather events.

WIDE RANGE OF AFFILIATIONS

The AP analyzed the affiliations of attendees of COP27, reviewing details they offered on their badges. Those details were checked against lists of operators and owners of coal mines, oil fields and natural gas plants, as well as manufacturers of carbon-intensive materials like steel and cement.

Attendees in 2022 included top executives of BP, Shell, Equinor and TotalEnergies. The head of the world’s largest oil and gas firm, Saudi Aramco, was at the site on a “sideline” event. And al-Jaber, chief of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, was also there and will be in charge of this year’s climate negotiations. The operations and products of those companies and others are huge contributors to climate change.

It wasn’t just fossil fuel giants that showed up.

Take Mercuria Energy. The Switzerland-based firm calls itself “one of the world’s largest energy traders,” with 69% of their 2022 traded volumes in oil and natural gas. The firm is also a part-owner in Vesta Terminals, which operates storage terminals that hold crude oil, petroleum products and other liquids, as well as a marine fuels company called Minerva Bunkering.

Mercuria sent six people to the COP in Egypt. Its chief trader, Magid Shenouda, went as part of the Coordinating Body of Indigenous Organizations of the Amazon Basin. Others from Mercuria went as members of delegations for the Brazilian government, the International Chamber of Commerce, the International Emissions Trading Association and Winrock International, a nonprofit that works to help poorer countries with social, environmental and agricultural issues.

Alden Meyer, who has been to all but one COP and is an analyst for the European think-tank E3G, says the big numbers of attendees connected to fossil fuels show these industries see this “either a threat or maybe an opportunity or both for their business,” but the system isn’t set up to tell motives and lobbying efforts.

Meyer says the fossil fuel interests have huge influence over the event, but the influence begins ahead of the talks.

Last year, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Global Energy Institute sent four employees to the summit. Marty Durbin, the institute’s president and former executive of the American Petroleum Institute, says the institute is a “huge” supporter of natural gas and the industry should have a voice in the talks.

“I don’t know why we’re trying to push people away instead of saying, ‘Come in and let’s all work on this together,’” said Durbin, speaking from an oil and gas conference in October in Abu Dhabi.

Su disagrees, saying: “It’s the fox guarding the henhouse and they should not be at the table when it’s governments who have the jurisdiction to regulate.”

___

Follow AP’s climate and environment coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment and follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at http://twitter.com/borenbears

Seth Borenstein And Mary Katherine Wildeman, The Associated Press