Brazil urges G20 ensure ‘super-rich pay fair share’ of taxes


By  AFP
February 29, 2024

Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad speaks during the G20 finance ministers meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil - Copyright AFP Elijah Nouvelage

Brazil’s finance minister called Thursday for an international plan to ensure the world’s super-rich pay their taxes, urging G20 nations to adopt a shared stance on preventing billionaire tax-dodging by July.

“It’s an undeniable fact that the billionaires of the world are still evading our tax systems through a series of strategies,” Finance Minister Fernando Haddad told his counterparts from the Group of 20 leading economies in Sao Paulo.

“I sincerely ask myself how we as G20 finance ministers can allow a situation like this to continue,” he added, saying Brazil would seek to craft a joint G20 declaration on international taxation by the next ministerial meeting in July.

Brazil, the current president of the G20 — whose members make up 80 percent of the global economy — is pushing the group to cooperate on tax policy, amid global wrangling on how to deal with a so-called “race to the bottom,” where some countries woo corporations and the super-rich with zero or ultra-low taxes.

In 2021, G20 finance ministers endorsed a global tax-rule reform based on two “pillars”: taxing large multinational corporations wherever they make their sales, to prevent “digital tax-dodging”; and a minimum corporate tax rate of 15 percent, regardless of where companies put their headquarters.

Countries are at different stages of implementing those reforms.

Some nations are now pushing for a “third pillar” that would tackle tax evasion by the super-rich.

Haddad cited a recent report by the EU Tax Observatory that found global billionaires are achieving effective tax rates of zero to 0.5 percent on their wealth, largely by using shell companies.

“Effective solutions to ensure the super-rich pay their fair share of taxes depend on international cooperation,” said Haddad, a close ally of Brazil’s leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

The issue “could be the key to solving many of the challenges we face,” he added.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told journalists Wednesday that Paris is pushing to “accelerate” international negotiations on a minimum tax on the ultra-wealthy.

Brazil invited a series of speakers to address the meeting on the issue, including French economist Gabriel Zucman, an expert on the link between tax evasion and inequality — another key issue for Brazil in its G20 presidency.

G20 hears a $250-billion-a-year idea: tax the super-rich


By AFP
February 29, 2024

French economist Gabriel Zucman speaks during a press conference on the sidelines of a G20 finance ministers meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil 

- Copyright AFP/File VALERIE MACON
Joshua Howat Berger

French economist Gabriel Zucman brought a $250-billion-a-year idea to top policy makers from the world’s biggest economies Thursday: slap an international wealth tax on the super-rich.

Zucman, a 37-year-old ex-protege of renowned economist and inequality expert Thomas Piketty, was invited to outline his research on tax evasion by the ultra-wealthy at a meeting of finance ministers from the Group of 20 nations, which is working to address the issue.

In an interview with AFP on the sidelines of the gathering in Sao Paulo, the UC Berkeley and Paris School of Economics professor discussed how billionaires like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos get away with paying zero income tax, how to change that, and why world leaders need to do it fast to save democracy.

– What is argument for minimum tax on super-rich? 

“There is a growing body of evidence that today’s tax systems, instead of being progressive, tend to be sharply regressive at the top of the distribution… The explosion of extreme wealth is one of the defining features of the world economy. It’s really in our face. And the fact that these people (billionaires) pay very little in tax has become more and more obvious over the years.

“One concrete proposal is billionaires should pay each year, in income tax, the equivalent of at least two percent of their wealth… Unlike income, wealth is very well-defined.

“There are about 3,000 US-dollar-billionaires globally… That would generate about $250 billion in additional tax revenue worldwide.

“According to the best estimates that we have, developing countries need an additional $500 billion to face the challenges of climate change. So we can get half of that with just this minimum tax on billionaires.

– What was the reaction at G20? –

“Today is really the first time that there has been a discussion like this in a forum like the G20. And I was struck by the fact that many countries expressed support for the view that yes, we should have international agreements about taxing the super-rich, increasing tax progressivity, fighting inequality. I think it’s a very positive development.

“It’s the very beginning of the conversation. There has to be an inclusive discussion and more studies to flesh out the details.”

– Billionaires will hate it. What’s your message to them? –

“It’s good if they hate it. Because it shows that this will actually make a difference. This is actually the one tax that’s going to be very hard for them to avoid. The income tax is very easy to avoid. The inheritance or estate tax, they’re also very good at avoiding it. This is something that will be very hard for them to avoid. So yes, they’re going to fight.

“But I think what I fear more is the consequences of inaction. I think it is much more risky to continue (the current trend) of rising concentration of wealth, of tax injustice.

“The inequalities we have today… are unlikely to be very sustainable. They are corrosive for democracy.”

Was The Exceptional Separatist 'Congress' A Swing And A Miss For Transdniester's Breakaway Elite?

February 29, 2024 
By Andy Heil and
RFE/RL's Moldovan Service

Delegates attend a "Congress of the Transdniestrian People's Deputies" in the breakaway Moldovan region on February 28.

A breakaway “congress” in Moldova’s Transdniester eyed as a possible portent of escalation in a decades-old frozen conflict came and went on February 28, with Chisinau seemingly dodging a bullet aimed by pro-Russian separatists at its ramped-up effort to reassert economic influence in the renegade region.

Whether initiated in Tiraspol or behind the scenes in Moscow, the rare gathering of the “Congress of the Transdniestrian People's Deputies” produced an appeal by its breakaway leaders to the Kremlin for protection ahead of a major annual address the next day by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The congress’s final statement appeared crafted to contribute to Kremlin talking points about safeguarding the rights of beleaguered Russian nationals and Russian speakers in those places. But it stopped well short of expressly renewing calls for recognition or annexation by Moscow.

"The Congress is asking the Russian Duma and the Federation Council (the upper chamber of Russia's parliament) to implement measures to protect Transdniester in the face of the increasing pressure applied by the Republic of Moldova," it said.

But Putin, despite laying out a lengthy list of perceived grievances and threats against Russia’s neighbors and the West, made no mention of the Transdniestrian situation in his February 29 speech.

SEE ALSO:
In Address To Russians, Putin Warns Of 'Tragic' Consequences If West Sends Troops To Ukraine


The last meeting of the Congress of the Transdniestrian People's Deputies came at the height of local tensions in 2006, when the separatists organized an unrecognized referendum on “potential future integration into Russia” and rejected reintegration into the rest of Moldova.

This week’s separatists’ congress, in the shadow of the war next door in Ukraine, followed two tumultuous years in which Moldova has expressed fears of becoming a second Russian front and accused Moscow of trying to dramatically destabilize the country and its pro-Western government.

Russian troops intervened in a 1992 war that pitted separatists against Moldova’s then-pro-Western leadership and derailed Chisinau’s EU aspirations for decades, and Moscow has kept a contingent of troops in Transdniester -- a sliver of land between the Dniester River and the Ukrainian border -- despite Moldovan demands for a withdrawal.

Moldova was granted EU candidate status in mid-2022, after accelerating the bid following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

More recently, President Maia Sandu and Moldova’s pro-European government this year embarked on highly public campaigns to reassert influence in vital parts of the economy in Transdniester, including a new customs code and reintegrating natural gas and power flows to the region into a national framework. Also, after weeks of deliberation, Chisinau in early February announced a tougher stance toward Moscow’s routine circumvention of its objections to Russian polling stations being opened in Transdniester, this time for Putin’s reelection to a fifth term in a March 15-17 election.

Moldova Pushes Back Against Russian Election Plans In Transdniester


Separatist leader Vadim Krasnoselski had reiterated his determination to seek Transdniester’s integration into Russia -- pursuant to an unrecognized 2006 referendum -- as recently as a year ago.

Then in late February, Krasnoselski called for a convocation of the “Congress of the Transdniestrian People's Deputies at all levels” to discuss alleged “pressures exerted by the Republic of Moldova.” He cited threats to the “rights” and “social situation [and] economy of the Transdniestrian people,” shorthand for the roughly one-fifth of Moldova’s population who live on the so-called Left Bank of the Dniester River outside central government control.

Official news from the separatists’ de facto capital, Tiraspol, dried up ahead of the congress.

Transdniestrian separatist leader Vadim Krasnoselski (center) attends a May 9 Victory Day military parade in Tiraspol in 2021.

But speculation by a former separatist official who eventually ran afoul of Krasnoselski’s regime sparked fears a week ago that the congress was aimed at issuing what he described as “a request…on behalf of citizens living on the Left Bank to Russia to accept Transdniester into the Russian Federation.”

Writing on Facebook, Ghenadi Ciorba expressly linked the congress to the Putin speech and suggested that “most likely, based on an analysis of the situation, a command was passed on from Moscow to hold this congress.”

The congress would remind the world about the 2006 referendum on joining Russia, he claimed, and he predicted that “on February 29, Putin will announce this in his address, and the Federal Assembly, in an accelerated order, will decide to grant the request.”

Referendum 'Warning'

Ciorba’s prediction prompted the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which follows the region closely in connection with the Ukraine war, to publish a “warning” that Transdniester “may organize a referendum on annexation to Russia to support [a] Russian hybrid operation against Moldova.” While it acknowledged that it appeared “unlikely” that Putin would “in the most dangerous course of action,” declare the annexation of Transdniester, the ISW said the Russian leader “will more likely welcome whatever action the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies takes and offer observations on the situation.” It called it a “a high-impact event of indetermined probability.”

As the Ciorba post and its reverberations abroad spawned considerable local coverage, RFE/RL’s Moldovan Service highlighted his past as a senior official in what Chisinau calls the “separatist regime,” including his leadership of the Transdniestrians’ media and communications service. It quoted a former Moldovan deputy prime minister for reintegration, Alexandru Flenchea, who suggested the event being organized in Tiraspol was "a political and propaganda response to Chisinau's economic actions."

Ghenadi Ciorba (file photo)

Dionis Cenusa, a political risk analyst and visiting fellow at the Eastern Europe Studies Center of the Royal United Services Institute, similarly said on February 28 that the breakaway Transdniestrians were aiming to use the “‘annexation scenario’ to provoke concern and therefore interest in the region’s claims.”

He suggested that Tiraspol was using the “security crisis caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine” to elicit “carrots” from Chisinau at a time of heightened “political competition in Moldova.”

Rather than any genuine appeal for recognition or annexation by Russia, he said, “The whole event is an exhibition of the separatist region’s concerts to the [international] community.”

'Small Steps' For Reintegration

In Tirana for a Ukraine-Western Balkans summit, Sandu fielded a question about Transdniester by saying Moldova was “safe today thanks to the bravery of the Ukrainian soldiers” and she reiterated Chisinau’s determination to resolve the frozen conflict over Transdniester without violence.

“Moldova is committed to a peaceful solution to the Transdniestrian conflict,” Sandu said. “What the Moldovan government is doing today is making small steps for the economic reintegration of the region.”

Moldovan President Maia Sandu (file photo)

A deputy assistant secretary in the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, Christopher Smith, also visited Tiraspol in the days before the congress. Krasnoselski reportedly complained to Smith of the threat of economic pressure on the region from Chisinau.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry also commented on the speculation about a possible annexation announcement. “For several days now, people in Chisinau have been speculating and wondering what decisions this forum might make," ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, before pivoting to suggest the ginned-up expectations were cause for Western concern. "Well, apparently, the same panic gripped NATO.”

So, the congress and the resulting resolution indeed drew international attention to Transdniester and its separatist dilemma.

However, the separatists’ appeal to Moscow was accompanied by a plea to the United Nations and to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Union, the latter two of which have led past efforts to negotiate a permanent peace to end the “frozen conflict” over Transdniester. They urged those international groups to “prevent Moldovan pressures” and renew negotiations.

But the Transdniester question and greater integration of the region into the national power grid and national life remain potential obstacles to Moldova’s EU membership, although the bloc made it an official candidate country when a handful of bids accelerated after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in early 2022.

And much of what the Moldovan government has set out to do -- bringing economic activity in an otherwise lawless Transdniester to heel, particularly in regulating trade with the European Union, punishing separatism, and shutting down Russia’s patronage through heavily subsidized natural gas supplies to separatist groups -- threatens the breakaway elite who have amassed huge fortunes under the status quo.

That points to what might have been the real aim of the Transdniestrian separatists’ congress and the premature warnings of an imminent referendum or push for annexation by Russia.

“Due to its authoritarian and semi-criminal character,” in the words of Cenusa, the political risk analyst, the Transdniestrian administration “must, in fact, find a new balance of forces to coexist with the new conditions put in place by Chisinau.”

Andy Heil  is a Prague-based senior correspondent covering central and southeastern Europe and the North Caucasus, and occasionally science and the environment. Before joining RFE/RL in 2001, he was a longtime reporter and editor of business, economic, and political news in Central Europe, including for the Prague Business Journal, Reuters, Oxford Analytica, and Acquisitions Monthly, and a freelance contributor to the Christian Science Monitor, Respekt, and Tyden.
HeilA@rferl.org

Moldova keeps cool after Russia ‘protection’ call

By AFP
February 29, 2024

Moldovan officials have played down the significance of an appeal by lawmakers in the breakaway region of Transnistria for Russian "protection"

 - Copyright AFP/File -
Ani SANDU with Anne BEADE in Vienna

Moldovans dismissed talk of tensions on Thursday, a day after pro-Russian rebel officials in the country’s breakaway region of Transnistria appealed to Russia for “protection”.

Experts, likewise, do not expect the territory soon to become a new flashpoint in Moscow’s conflict with neighbouring Ukraine.

– Is Chisinau worried? –

Moldova’s government has been quick to reject “propaganda statements” from separatists on the sliver of land, which has been de facto controlled by pro-Russian forces since the collapse of the Soviet Union but is internationally recognised as part of Moldova.

“The Russian Federation, or rather the Kremlin, wants us to be scared… We can’t allow them to do that. We have to keep our peace,” pro-European President Maia Sandu told Jurnal TV on Thursday, assuring Moldovans they were safe.

At a rare special congress in Transnistria, lawmakers passed a resolution asking Russia’s parliament to “protect” the region from mounting Moldovan pressure.

Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Serebrian also told reporters during a briefing that “nothing spectacular happened in Tiraspol”.

“We were ready to see these kind of messages, alarmist messages from Tiraspol” after Moldova introduced customs duties in January, he added.

On the streets of Chisinau, Moldovans said they were not overly worried.

“We don’t have major concerns,” Igor Druta, 40, an electrician, told AFP. “There are some tensions… but in general we keep calm and move forward thinking positively.”

“We are very much protected,” with the “dastardly war in Ukraine” creating a bulwark for Moldova, Tudor Balinschi, a 78-year-old retiree, told AFP, tears coming to his eyes.


– Is a Russian invasion likely? –

On Wednesday, Russia’s foreign ministry said it was one of the country’s priorities to protect “our compatriots”, the residents of Transnistria, adding that it considered “all requests” for help.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin didn’t mention Transnistria in his annual address to Russian lawmakers on Thursday.

Several experts told AFP that Transnistria was not a priority for Putin at the moment and they did not see signs of an imminent invasion or annexation.

“Vladimir Putin’s Russia is much more focused today on the Ukrainian conflict than any other subject. There is no need for Russia to move the Transnistria map today,” said Florent Parmentier, Moldova specialist at Sciences Po university in Paris.

He added Russia’s policy towards Transnistria has been to use the region “as a vector of influence over the whole of Moldova to try to influence Moldovan political life”.

– Why this call for protection now? –

Alexandru Flenchea, a former deputy prime minister, said Wednesday’s meeting was “an exclusively local initiative” to get Chisinau to revoke import duties and thwart other economic measures they plan to carry out to “reintegrate” Transnistria.

For Parmentier too, the separatists’ call for help aims to “create leverage” in their discussions with Chisinau.

Russia — which has around 1,500 soldiers permanently stationed in the region — props up Transnistria’s economy with free natural gas.

But the breakaway republic of some 450,000 inhabitants has found itself increasingly isolated from Moscow since the conflict in Ukraine broke out.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moldova — which borders Ukraine and EU member Romania — is seeking to join the EU and has obtained EU candidate status.

But many of Moldova’s 2.6 million people struggle in one of Europe’s poorest nations.

“What worries me is the future of my child because it’s not a good political situation, and we’re constantly stressed,” Eni Melnic, 32, a fashion designer, told AFP as she pushed her two-year-old son in a stroller.

“We always have it in the back of our minds that we have to leave, because we don’t know what tomorrow will bring,” she added.

JOBS VS DIVIDENDS
Video game giant Electronic Arts announces job cuts


By AFP
February 29, 2024

Video game publisher Electronic Arts says it is 'sunsetting' some old titles and stopping work on new intellectual property that does not look promising - Copyright GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP Christian Petersen

Electronic Arts on Wednesday said it is cutting about 5 percent of its workforce, as belt tightening continues in the video game and tech industries.

The California company behind hits including soccer game “FC24” is also “sunsetting” some titles and stopping development of others it thinks will not be successful, chief executive Andrew Wilson said in a message to employees posted online.

“We are streamlining our company operations to deliver deeper, more connected experiences for fans everywhere that build community, shape culture, and grow fandom,” Wilson said.

“In this time of change, we expect these decisions to impact approximately 5 percent of our workforce.”

The company’s annual report last year indicated it had 13,400 employees, meaning about 670 positions are being eliminated.

The announcement came a day after Sony said it was cutting 8 percent of its global workforce, as video game makers find they’re not immune to the wave of layoffs seen recently in the tech industry.

Calling it “sad news,” PlayStation chief Jim Ryan said that the Sony reductions would affect 900 people across the globe, including video game studios.

A separate statement said that US studios Insomniac Games and Naughty Dog, part of PlayStation’s stable, were hit by the job cuts.

Microsoft in January said it was laying off 1,900 people, or eight percent of staff, from its gaming division, following its acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

Last year the wider tech industry lost 260,000 jobs according to layoffs.fyi, a California-based website that tracks the sector.

So far this year, layoffs are at 45,356, the site showed, from 176 companies.

LIFE
Karen Graham, a prominent journalist and environmentalist for Digital Journal, passed away at 78


ByJohn Rall
PublishedFebruary 28, 2024

Karen Graham was a highly valued Editor-at-Large at Digital Journal. — © Family handout photo.

We are deeply saddened to inform our readers of the passing of Karen Graham, who was a highly valued Editor-at-Large at Digital Journal and a great friend to all of us. Karen had been battling a long-term illness, and her loss is deeply felt by the entire team.
Karen Graham joined Digital Journal in September 2013 and was based in Richmond, Virginia. During her time with us, she wrote over 2,000 articles that focused on environmental and historical issues, ranging from the impact of climate change on the world’s food supply to her passionate political Op-Ed pieces.

In her profile published in Digital Journal, Michael Thomas wrote that Karen’s dedication to her causes was rooted in her life experience. She was a true champion for her topics and always wrote with a natural passion.

For those who want to learn more about Karen Graham’s life and work, we invite you to read Michael Thomas’ article, “Profile of a Digital Journalist: Karen Graham’s Natural Passion.”

 

Stress of being outed to parents and caregivers: What are the mental health consequences?

by Danielle Faipler, University of Connecticut

Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain

In 2023, lawmakers across the U.S. introduced a record number of anti-LGBTQ+ bills. Although the 2024 legislative session has just begun, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) is already tracking 429 bills, a figure on pace to surpass 2023 numbers.

The rise in anti-LGBTQ+ policy rhetoric has coincided with an increase in anti-LBTGQ+ violence. According to data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's (FBI) 2022 annual crime report, anti-LGBTQ+ hate crimes increased 13.8% from 2021.

As more policy proposals are directed at LGBTQ+ youth, advocates are concerned about how children's mental and physical well-being will be affected.

"In recent years, we've seen an increase in anti-LGBTQ+ legislation targeting kids, and even though not all of these bills will become law, even the introduction of the bills may have an immediate and real impact on kids' lives and their mental health," says Ryan Watson, associate professor in the Department of Human Development and Family Sciences (HDFS).

A total of 32 such proposals have advanced in the legislatures of Arizona, Hawaii, Missouri, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia, and other states. At least six states have laws on the books to forcibly out students.

"It's critical that as researchers we stay engaged in understanding and speaking out against legislative policies that have the potential to do real harm to LGBTQ+ youth, equally important is supporting policies that protect youth. These policies have the potential to greatly and quickly impact the lives of LGBTQ+ youth," says Lisa Eaton, professor of Human Development and Family Sciences.

Despite social progress, SGDY experience higher levels of discrimination, bullying, and stress, depression, and anxiety compared to their cisgender and heterosexual peers, and these health disparities continue to grow. SGDY report experiencing bullying, violence, discrimination, and rejection based on their sexual orientation and gender identity. When youth choose to disclose their identity, they often consider the support they may receive.

To investigate the mental health consequences of sexual and gender-diverse youth (SGDY) whose sexual or gender identity is forcibly disclosed to their parents without their permission, a team of researchers at UConn's Sexuality, Health, and Intersectional Experiences (SHINE) Lab conducted a study that was recently published in the Journal of Research on Adolescence.

Watson and Eaton, both are principal investigators at UConn's Institute for Collaboration on Health, Intervention, and Policy (InCHIP), co-direct the SHINE Lab. The SHINE Lab conducts research to improve understanding of how sexual orientation and gender identity, family experiences, school contexts, and ethnoracial identity affect health outcomes among sexually and gender-diverse youth and adults.

"Unique stressors, like bullying based on sexual and gender identities, are experienced at a time when youth are meeting important developmental milestones; at this same time, SGDY are typically financially and legally dependent upon their caregivers. There is a critical gap of knowledge on how the manner of disclosure may be related to the well-being of sexual and gender diverse youth.

"Our study aimed to understand how experiences of being outed to parents were related to mental health," says the study's lead author Peter McCauley, a second-year HDFS Ph.D. student and research assistant at the SHINE Lab.

McCauley and his collaborators used data from the LGBTQ National Teen Survey collected in partnership with the Human Rights Campaign (HRC) between April and December 2017. Respondents were between the ages of 13 and 17, identified as LGBTQ+, spoke English, and were U.S. residents.

The team found that respondents who were outed (about 30%) to their parents were more likely to experience elevated depressive symptoms and lower LGBTQ family support compared to those who were not. Parents who affirmed and supported their child's identity could potentially mitigate depressive symptoms from the stress of being outed.

The study demonstrates that a lack of agency in disclosing a sexual and/or gender identity to parents can greatly undermine the well-being of SGDY and indicate lower levels of family support. It also underscores the importance of enabling SGDY youth to have greater control over when they disclose their identities.

"A staggering number of anti-LGBTQ+ bills have been proposed that mandate school officials to out students' identities to parents and caregivers. Policymakers should be aware of the harms these bills have on the well-being of students and strongly argue for their right to disclose their identities on their own terms," says McCauley.

More information: Peter S. McCauley et al, Stress of being outed to parents, LGBTQ family support, and depressive symptoms among sexual and gender diverse youth, Journal of Research on Adolescence (2024). DOI: 10.1111/jora.12912

Journal information: Journal of Research on Adolescence 

Provided by University of Connecticut Nearly 9 in 10 trans youth say recent wave of anti-LGBTQ policies negatively affected their mental health

Keeping Outer Space Nuclear Weapons Free


ARMS CONTROL TODAY
March 2024
By Daryl G. Kimball

Fifty-seven years ago, through the Outer Space Treaty, the United States and the Soviet Union agreed to codify a fundamental nuclear taboo: nuclear weapons shall not be stationed in orbit or elsewhere in outer space. But there is growing concern that Russia is working on an orbiting anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons system involving a nuclear explosive device that would, if deployed, violate the treaty, undermine space security, and worsen the technological and nuclear arms race.

The flash created by the Starfish Prime high-altitude nuclear test on July 9,1962 as seen from Honolulu, 900 miles away. (Wikimedia Commons)

The White House confirmed on Feb. 15 that U.S. intelligence uncovered evidence that Russia is developing an ASAT weapon that “would be a violation of the Outer Space Treaty, to which more than 130 countries have signed up to, including Russia.” Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a nondenial denial, claiming on Feb. 20 that Russia remains “categorically against…the placement of nuclear weapons in space.”

An ASAT system involving a nuclear explosive device could produce a massive surge of radiation and a powerful electromagnetic pulse that, depending on the altitude of the explosion and the size of the warhead, could indiscriminately destroy, blind, or disable many of the 9,500 commercial and military space satellites now in orbit.

Russia’s reported pursuit of a nuclear-armed ASAT system is another troubling attempt by the Kremlin to challenge the fundamental norms against nuclear weapons and to use nuclear weapons to intimidate and coerce. But it would not be a “Sputnik moment” requiring parallel ASAT weapons system development or radical new countermeasures by the United States.

As with the exotic nuclear delivery systems that Putin first announced in 2018, including a long-range, underwater torpedo and a nuclear-powered cruise missile, a nuclear-capable ASAT weapons system would add a dangerous capability. But it would not alter the existing military balance of terror.

Russia already fields a range of ASAT system capabilities, including co-orbital systems that can launch cyberattacks and engage in electronic jamming of specific adversary satellites. As with China, India, and the United States, Russia has already demonstrated a capability to use a ground-based missile to hit and destroy an orbiting satellite. All nations with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles also have the latent ability to detonate a nuclear explosive device in space. From 1958 to 1962, the United States and the Soviet Union conducted nuclear explosive tests in the outer atmosphere.

The United States, which has the largest number of satellites in orbit, is already working to improve the resilience of its military communications, early-warning, and surveillance assets. A new Pentagon program soon will put constellations of smaller, cheaper satellites into orbit to counter space-based threats. Any corresponding U.S. nuclear-armed ASAT system effort would put U.S. and other satellites at even greater risk and do nothing to protect U.S. capabilities in space.

Off-and-on talks designed to maintain the peaceful use of space, including restrictions on ASAT weapons systems, have been stymied for years. A long-standing Chinese-Russian treaty proposal would ban objects placed into orbit with the intent of harming other space objects. It also would ban the “threat or use of force against outer space objects,” which would still allow suborbital and ground-based ASAT weapons capabilities.

Until recently, the United States has been wary of any legally binding restrictions on ASAT weapons systems in part because they might restrict U.S. ground-based missile defense capabilities or a possible space-based, kinetic anti-missile system that could involve a number of orbiting interceptors that provide a thin defense against ground-based missiles. More recently, the Biden administration proposed and rallied support for a ban on direct-ascent ASAT missile tests, which create debris fields that pose a major hazard to orbiting objects.

In the coming weeks, Washington, Beijing, and other capitals need to pressure Putin to abandon any ideas about putting nuclear weapons in orbit. As President Joe Biden noted on Feb. 16, that deployment “hasn’t happened yet, and my hope is it will not.”

The possibility of a Russian nuclear-armed ASAT system should also spur Washington, Moscow, Beijing, and other space-faring nations to get serious finally about additional measures to protect space security. They need to implement effective limits on ASAT weapons systems, including direct-ascent ASAT weapons and space-based systems that can destroy satellites and other objects traveling through space.

Russian ASAT weapons systems are not the only destabilizing factor in the dangerous nuclear and deterrence equation. In the absence of new, agreed constraints on Russian and U.S. strategic nuclear arsenals and measures to halt the growth of China’s arsenal, a costly three-way nuclear arms race could accelerate after the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expires in 2026. In response, Biden needs to rally international pressure on Russia to support his proposals for talks on a new nuclear arms control framework and separate, regular dialogues with Moscow and Beijing on reducing nuclear dangers. Space and global security depend on it.

Italian mafia allegedly poisons priest’s chalice for speaking out against organized crime

By Staff - The Washington Times - Thursday, February 29, 2024

In Cessaniti, a small town within Italy’s Calabria region, the Rev. Felice Palamara narrowly escaped a life-threatening incident during a Saturday Mass.

The priest, renowned for his courageous stance against the mafia, detected a bleach odor emanating from the water and wine and halted the service to alert authorities.

Italian national police, known as the Carabinieri, confirmed the substances had been contaminated with bleach, hinting at an attempt on Father Palamara‘s life.

Violence escalates in Haiti’s capital as PM visits Kenya to finalize security mission

By Staff Reuters
Posted February 29, 2024 

 'As bad as I've seen it': How can Haiti emerge from years of unrest? – Aug 24, 2023

A wave of panic swept through downtown Port-au-Prince on Thursday, with an outburst of violence marked by heavy gunfire and improvised barricades, and a gang leader took responsibility saying it was a demonstration against Haitian authorities.

The violent events took place on the same day Haiti’s Prime Minister Ariel Henry arrived in Kenya for talks on the deployment of a multinational security mission in the country backed by the United Nations.

By midday, most institutions and businesses in Port-au-Prince had closed and thousands of people commuted back home in public transit or walking to seek shelter, according to local witnesses.

Haitian airline Sunrise Airways halted flights as violence flared in Haiti, a company spokesperson said, adding shootouts near the capital’s airport had put people in danger.

Special police units were deployed throughout the city to respond to the violent events, a police spokesperson told a local radio station.

“We have chosen to take our destiny in our own hands. The battle we are waging will not only topple the Ariel (Henry) government. It is a battle that will change the whole system,” said former cop and gang leader Jimmy Cherizier, also known as Barbecue, in a video shared on social media.

Henry, who came to power after the assassination of the country’s last president in 2021, had pledged to step down by early February, but later said security must first be re-established in order to ensure free and fair elections.

The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) said in a statement late Thursday that Henry has committed to holding general elections by Aug. 31 next year, following a regional summit of Caribbean nations in Guyana.

CARICOM said it would send an assessment team to evaluate electoral needs by March 31 of this year to support planning and establishment of the relevant institutions.

Gang violence has flared up in Haiti since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. The U.N. estimates the conflict killed close to 5,000 people last year and has driven some 300,000 from their homes.

Kenya-led force in doubt

Henry said he was traveling at the invitation of Kenyan President William Ruto to “finalize modalities” for agreements between the countries on the deployment, which would send 1,000 Kenyan police officers to Haiti.

Kenya agreed in October to lead a U.N.-authorized international police force to Haiti, but the Kenyan High Court in January ruled the plan unconstitutional in part because of a lack of “reciprocal agreements” between the two countries.

It was not immediately clear how, or if, the agreements could circumvent the court’s ruling, which also said that Kenya’s National Police Service cannot be deployed outside the country.

Ekuru Aukot, an opposition leader who has challenged the deployment in court, has said that even if the Kenyan government establishes an appropriate agreement with Haiti, its prime minister lacks the legitimacy to sign the document on behalf of the country.

The United Nations Security Council’s resolution requires countries to inform U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres of their participation in the security mission. While approved by the Security Council, the mission is not a U.N. operation.

The Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Benin and Chad have formally notified the United Nations of their intent to contribute personnel to the international force, a U.N. spokesman said on Thursday.

Ruto has said the plan will go ahead with Kenya’s leadership despite the court ruling, however his government has not yet notified Guterres.

Contributions of $10.8 million have also been deposited into a trust fund to support the multinational security support mission, U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters, adding that further pledges of $78 million had also been made.

Global Affairs Canada said last week the government is committing $80.5 million toward the mission.

Separately, the United Nations said some 5.5 million people in Haiti – half the population – need humanitarian assistance and it is appealing for $674 million in 2024. Last year the U.N. only received a third of the money it requested, said U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator for Haiti Ulrika Richardson.

—With additional files from the Associated Press

 

Emergency atmospheric geoengineering wouldn't save the oceans

by Rebecca Dzombak, American Geophysical Union

(a) Annual mean global mean surface temperature above pre-industrial reference  

temperature (b) Change in annual mean total depth ocean heat content (OHC) relative to

 2020–2030 conditions in Control. (c) Difference in vertical OHC between end-of-simulation

 (2090–2100) conditions and present-day conditions in Control. 

Credit: Geophysical Research Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2023GL106132

Climate change is heating the oceans, altering currents and circulation patterns responsible for regulating climate on a global scale. If temperatures dropped, some of that damage could theoretically be undone.

But employing "emergency" atmospheric geoengineering later this century in the face of continuous high carbon emissions would not be able to reverse changes to ocean currents, a new study finds. This would critically curtail the intervention's potential effectiveness on human-relevant timescales.

Oceans, especially the deep oceans, absorb and lose heat more slowly than the atmosphere, so an intervention that cools the air would not be able to cool the deep ocean on the same timescale, the authors found.

Stratospheric aerosol injection is a commonly discussed geoengineering concept based on the idea that adding particles to the stratosphere could help cool the surface of the planet by reflecting sunlight back into space.

This could help stabilize the planet if warming exceeds the 1.5 degree Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) cap set by the Paris Climate Agreement, which the planet is on track to exceed under current emission rates. (Global temperatures surpassed that threshold for several months in 2023 due to a combination of factors in addition to climate change, such as El Niño.)

But whether the injections would work is still heavily debated.

Previous research hints that a steady trickle of aerosol injections would help cool the surface of the planet. But the new study suggests that while an abrupt aerosol injection later this century could provide some ocean cooling, it wouldn't be enough to nudge "stubborn" ocean patterns such as Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which some research finds is already weakening.

In that case, preexisting problems resulting from a warmed deep ocean, such as altered weather patterns, regional sea level rise and weakened currents, would remain in place even as the atmosphere and surface ocean cooled.

"The big picture result is that we believe we can control the surface temperature of the Earth, but other components of the climate system will not be so fast to respond," said Daniel Pflüger, a physical oceanographer at Utrecht University who led the study. "We need to bring down emissions as fast as possible. We're only talking about geoengineering because the political will for emission mitigation is lacking."

The study was published in Geophysical Research Letters, AGU's journal for high-impact, short-format reports with immediate implications spanning all Earth and space sciences.

Warm planet, wild swings

Scientists know the surface of the planet can cool when large volumes of particles are added to the atmosphere because of events such as volcanic eruptions, which naturally emit gases and fine particles. For instance, in 1815, an eruption at Mt. Tambora in Indonesia launched so much material into the air that it cooled the planet the following year.

Aerosol injection is based on a similar principle whereby the atmosphere is made more reflective to send incoming solar radiation back into space, cooling the planet.

Because of this, Pflüger wanted to test how the atmosphere, shallow ocean, and deep ocean would respond to a steady trickle of aerosol injections over decades as opposed to a big, abrupt injection beginning later in the century. Would such an emergency measure be able to reverse ocean changes?

Pflüger and his colleagues simulated two aerosol injection scenarios, both with high carbon emissions. In one scenario, people started slowly adding particles into the atmosphere in 2020. In the other, beginning in 2080, people inject a large initial quantity of aerosols to bring the amount of warming back to 1.5 degrees Celsius and then continue to add enough aerosols to maintain that level of cooling.

The team found that in the 2020 scenario, gradual stratospheric aerosol injections maintain ocean temperatures, structure, and circulation patterns roughly similar to today.

In the 2080 scenario, the abrupt aerosol injection cooled the Earth's surface, including the top 100 meters (330 feet) of the ocean, to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average in about 10 years. However, the deep oceans remained warmer than average, and critical ocean circulation patterns remained altered. The intervention was not entirely successful.

The study shows that aerosol injection "might be able to slow down or prevent climate tipping points from happening in the first place," said Daniele Visioni, a climate scientist at Cornell University who was not involved in the research. But aerosol injection "cannot magically restore things."

"We cannot kick the can down the road forever," he said.

The extreme climate situations modeled here are neither desirable nor likely, Pflüger said. However, they provide a good baseline for understanding how Earth systems react to aerosol injections. Ultimately, geoengineering can be useful—but it cannot be the whole solution, he said.

Relying on geoengineering is "in a way, madness," Pflüger said. "But the situation is already quite mad."

The research is published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

More information: Daniel Pflüger et al, Flawed Emergency Intervention: Slow Ocean Response to Abrupt Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Geophysical Research Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2023GL106132

Journal information: Geophysical Research Letters 

Provided by American Geophysical UnionClimate engineering could slow Antarctic ice loss, study says

E.P.A. to Exempt Existing Gas Plants From Tough New Rules, for Now

The delay reflects opposition from industry leaders and some swing-state Democrats.

 

Environmental Protection Agency will exempt existing gas-fired plants from a regulation that would require power stations to capture their carbon dioxide emissions by 2040

.Credit...Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times


By Lisa Friedman
Reporting from Washington.
Feb. 29, 2024


Facing intense opposition from major industries and some Democrats, the Biden administration on Thursday said it would delay the most contentious element of its plan to slash greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.

The Environmental Protection Agency will exempt existing gas-fired plants, at least for now, from a new regulation that would require power plants in the United States to capture their carbon dioxide emissions before 2040.

The delay comes as the administration, in a concession to automakers and labor unions, is also expected to relax elements of another major rule to limit carbon pollution from automobiles. That was in response to pressure from automakers as well as labor unions, an important part of President Biden’s Democratic constituency as he seeks re-election in November.

The power plant rule initially called for steep emissions cuts from plants that burn coal or gas, which together produce the bulk of electricity in the United States. To comply, plants would have to capture their greenhouse gas emissions using technologies that are currently very expensive and not widely in use.

Now the E.P.A. says the regulation, which is expected to be finalized this spring, will apply only to existing coal-burning plants and gas-fired plants that are built in the future.

The agency plans to write a separate regulation to address climate pollution and other emissions from gas-fired plants currently in operation, a delay certain to stretch past the November election.

The Biden Administration’s Environmental AgendaFuel Ban: The Biden administration will permanently lift a ban on summertime sales of higher-ethanol gasoline blends in eight states starting in 2025, in response to a request from Midwestern governors.
Biden’s Climate Law: A year and a half after President Biden signed into law a sweeping bill to tackle climate change, an analysis of the legislation’s effects has found that electric vehicles are booming as expected but renewable power isn’t growing as quickly as hoped.
Tailpipe Emissions: In an election-year concession to automakers and labor unions, the Biden administration intends to relax limits on tailpipe emissions that are designed to get Americans to switch from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles.
Steel Merger: President Biden is facing new pressure to block Nippon Steel’s acquisition of the iconic manufacturer U.S. Steel, from environmental groups that say the tie-up would set back America’s efforts to curb climate change.

“This stronger, more durable approach will achieve greater emissions reductions than the current proposal,” Michael Regan, the E.P.A. administrator, said in a statement.

The changes comes as Mr. Biden faces intense headwinds as he runs for re-election while trying to confront climate change. He is aiming to cut carbon dioxide emissions from power plants and gasoline powered vehicles, which are two of the largest sources of greenhouse gasses, while retaining crucial electoral support in major manufacturing states.

Power plants generate about a quarter of the planet-warming pollution produced by the United States. Regulating electric utilities is a major part of Mr. Biden’s climate agenda, which calls for eliminating emissions from the power sector by 2035

When the E.PA. first proposed new limits on pollution from power plants, the resistance was immediate.

Electric utility groups argued that the rules for existing gas plants would be particularly hard to meet; the country’s biggest manufacturing lobby warned it could have “devastating consequences”; and a small but significant number of swing state Democrats said they also feared the requirements would result in electric rate increases.

“Depending on implementation, municipal electric utilities serving small, rural communities in my district may have no choice but to pass along the costs of compliance to their ratepayers,” said Representative Marcy Kaptur, Democrat of Ohio.

Ms. Kaptur was among a group of House and Senate Democrats who wrote to the E.P.A. in January to express concern about the proposed regulation. “We share the administration’s goal of responsibly reducing carbon emissions,” they wrote. But, they added “we cannot ask our constituents to bear the cost of that risk in the form of significantly higher utility bills and unreliable electricity.”

Senator Jon Tester, one of the most vulnerable Democrats facing re-election in November, said he supported the president’s climate agenda but wanted a methodical transition to cleaner energy. “I’m all about climate change, and we have to figure out ways to that,” Mr. Tester said on Wednesday. “In the meantime, we can’t shut off the spigot.”

Under the new plan disclosed on Thursday, the E.P.A. said it intended to finalize its regulation to require existing coal plants to install technology that will capture 90 percent of their carbon emissions by 2035. Alternatively, coal plants could convert their operations so that they are burning mostly hydrogen by 2038. Plants that cannot meet the new standards would be forced to retire.

The E.P.A. did not say when it intended to issue a separate rule for gas plants. Mr. Regan said the agency was writing a regulation that will also address other harmful pollutants emitted from gas plants like formaldehyde and nitrous oxide.

Delaying the final regulation past this spring runs the risk of it being overturned by the next Congress. The 1996 Congressional Review Act permits lawmakers to undo regulations with a simple majority within the first 60 days of the finalization of a new rule. Republicans have already pledged to repeal rules written by the Biden administration rules if they win control of the White House and Congress in November.

A group of environmental justice leaders led by Robert Bullard, a professor of urban planning and environmental policy at Texas Southern University, issued a letter in support of the delay because they were glad to learn it meant the agency would also consider blocking nitrous oxide and other pollutants.

“Many of our communities experience the immediate impacts of living near the existing infrastructure of coal plants, gas plants, pipelines, and extraction and refining facilities,” Dr. Bullard and others wrote.

Abigail Dillen, president of Earthjustice, an environmental group, said climate activists understood the need for the delay. The original rule would have left smaller gas plants, known as peaker plants, unregulated, she said.

One analysis done by Evergreen, another environmental advocacy group, said that only 5.2 percent of gas-fired turbines, representing 22 percent of the nation’s gas power capacity, would be covered by the rule.

“There’s no good way to regulate fossil gas plants without regulating all of them, and taking a comprehensive approach that gets at their toxics pollution as well as their climate pollution,” Ms. Dillen said.

Coral Davenport contributed reporting.



Lisa Friedman is a Times reporter who writes about how governments are addressing climate change and the effects of those policies on communities. More about Lisa Friedman