SPIROGRAPH

Imagining the physics of George R.R. Martin’s fictional universe

Authors Ian Tregillis and George R.R. Martin derive a formula to describe the dynamics behind viral behavior in the Wild Cards series.

American Institute of Physics

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A coordinate system for the polar model of the Wild Cards system and an example of the viral vector trajectories.

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Credit: Ian Tregillis

WASHINGTON, Jan. 23, 2025 – Many science fiction authors try to incorporate scientific principles into their work, but Ian Tregillis, who is a contributing author of the Wild Cards book series when he’s not working as a physicist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, took it one step further: He derived a formula to describe the dynamics of the fictional universe’s viral system.

In independent research published in the American Journal of Physics, from AIP Publishing, Tregillis and George R.R. Martin derive a formula for viral behavior in the Wild Cards universe.

Wild Cards is a science fiction series written by a collection of authors and edited by Martin and Melinda M. Snodgrass. Sitting at over 30 volumes, the books are about an alien virus called the Wild Card that mutates human DNA. Martin is credited as a co-author of the paper, making it his first peer-reviewed physics publication.

The idea to explore the science behind the fictional virus came from a series of blog posts on the Wild Cards website.

“Like any physicist, I started with back-of-the-envelope estimates, but then I went off the deep end. Eventually I suggested, only half-jokingly, that it might be easier to write a genuine physics paper than another blog post,” Tregillis said. “Being a theoretician, I couldn't help but wonder if a simple underlying model might tidy up the canon.”

The formula he derived is a Lagrangian formulation, which considers the different ways a system can evolve. It’s also a fundamental physics principle, which also makes the fictional example a powerful teaching tool.

Tregillis shared that deriving this physical model was a fun but open-ended puzzle. After some trial and error of models based on fractals or thermodynamic analogies, he and Martin settled on the Lagrangian approach.

“We translated the abstract problem of Wild Card viral outcomes into a simple, concrete dynamical system. The time-averaged behavior of this system generates the statistical distribution of outcomes,” he said.

While the Wild Card virus can be modeled by physics, Tregillis emphasized that it isn’t a hard-and-fast rule in the canon.

“Good storytelling is about characters: their wants, needs, obstacles, challenges, and how they interact with their world,” Tregillis said. “The fictional virus is really just an excuse to justify the world of Wild Cards, the characters who inhabit it, and the plot lines that spin out from their actions.”

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The article “Ergodic Lagrangian dynamics in a superhero universe” is authored by Ian Tregillis and George R.R. Martin. It will appear in the American Journal of Physics on Jan. 23, 2025 (DOI: 10.1119/5.0228859). After that date, it can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1119/5.0228859.

ABOUT THE JOURNAL

The American Journal of Physics is devoted to the instructional and cultural aspects of physics. The journal informs physics education globally with member subscriptions, institutional subscriptions, such as libraries and physics departments, and consortia agreements. It is geared to an advanced audience, primarily at the college level. Contents include novel approaches to laboratory and classroom instruction, insightful articles on topics in classical and modern physics, apparatus, and demonstration notes, historical or cultural topics, resource letters, research in physics education, and book reviews. See https://pubs.aip.org/aapt/ajp.

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Journal

American Journal of Physics

DOI

10.1119/5.0228859 

Article Title

Ergodic Lagrangian dynamics in a superhero universe

 

How Camellias evolved with the formation of the Japanese archipelago?

Tracing the demographic history of Camellia japonica and Camellia rusticana

Niigata University

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The Studied Camellias and Dr. Harue Abe

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Credit: Niigata University

Niigata, Japan – The distribution of plants has been shaped by geological and climatic changes over time through repeated migration, extinction, and adaptation to new environments. The genus Camellia, comprising over 100 species mainly in East Asia, is a representative warm-temperate tree of the Sino-Japanese Floristic Region.

In Japan, four species of Camellia are found, with Camellia japonica and Camellia rusticana being the most well known. C. japonica has a broad distribution from Aomori Prefecture in the cool-temperate zone to subtropical Taiwan and the coastal regions of China, suggesting its high adaptability to different climates. In contrast, C. rusticana is a Japan Sea element plant adapted to heavy snowfall areas. Plants categorized as Japan Sea elements are generally thought to have evolved from closely related species on the Pacific side, and C. japonica and C. rusticana were also believed to follow this pattern. Following this idea, C. rusticana was hypothesized to have diverged from C. japonica as an adaptation to snow-covered environments. However, this hypothesis had not been fully tested scientifically. This study aimed to clarify the evolutionary history of these two species by analyzing their distributional changes using genetic analyses and ecological niche modeling.

Phylogenetic analyses revealed clear differentiation among C. japonica, C. rusticana, and C. chekiangoleosa, a closely related continental species. Their common ancestor is estimated to have diverged approximately 10 million years ago during the Late Miocene, coinciding with the separation of the Japanese archipelago from the continent. This suggests that the two species diverged simultaneously due to geographic isolation, contradicting the previous hypothesis that C. rusticana evolved from C. japonica in response to Quaternary glacial cycles.

The populations of C. japonica are divided into three major groups: northern Japan, southern Japan (including mainland China and Korea), and the Ryukyu-Taiwan region. Among them, the northern population is particularly distinct from the others. Tracing their evolutionary history, analyses revealed that the southern population diverged from the northern population about 3.3 million years ago, followed by the Ryukyu-Taiwan population splitting from the southern population 1.8 million years ago, and finally, the continental population (including Korea) diverging from the southern population 27,000 years ago. These findings indicate that C. japonica, which originally migrated from the continent to the Japanese archipelago, later evolved and eventually recolonized the continent (reverse colonization). This provides key evidence that islands are not evolutionary dead ends but can serve as sources of genetic diversity for continental populations.

This study not only sheds light on the evolutionary history of Camellia but also highlights how the formation of the Japanese archipelago has influenced plant evolution. "By unraveling the history of camellias, we may gain new insights into the evolutionary processes of other plants unique to Japan," says Dr. Harue Abe. Furthermore, the research is not just about understanding the past—it also provides clues for predicting future changes in plant distribution. "As global warming continues, understanding how Camellia species will shift their ranges becomes increasingly important. Our findings will serve as a key reference for predicting these changes," she emphasizes.

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Journal

Ecology and Evolution

DOI

10.1002/ece3.70721 

Article Title

Evolutionary histories of Camellia japonica and Camellia rusticana

 

Drones could be the ‘magic tools’ we need to chase bears away from people

Guest editorial by Wesley M. Sarmento

Frontiers

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Bear chased across a field with a drone.

For a full resolution file of the video, please write to press@frontiersin.org. 

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Credit: Wesley Sarmento/Montana Fish, Wildlife, and Parks

Brown bears roam across much of the northern hemisphere from the mountains of Spain to the prairies of the US. These bears are formidable carnivores that can weigh up to 751 kg (1,656 lb) and have claws 15 cm (6 in) long. With long canine teeth and a bite force of 6,800,000 pascals (1,000 psi), these bruins can easily crush bones. All these powerful features make brown bears an imposing predator that can take down prey as large and dangerous as an adult bison. Yet, while these bears eat meat, much of their diet is plant-based because they are omnivores. Brown bears have very few dietary restrictions. They are certainly not gluten intolerant because they have been observed laying in big piles of grain, eating wheat by mouthfuls. Nor do they have nut or shellfish allergies. This large dietary breadth, however, causes them to seek out many of the same foods that humans consume. So, just about anywhere you have brown bears and people, you have human-bear conflicts.

In the contiguous US, brown bears, also called grizzly bears, have been a protected species since the 1970s, which has led some populations to increase considerably and expand their range, reclaiming historic habitat. The ecosystems that contain Yellowstone and Glacier National Park have populations of grizzlies that are rebounding so much that bears are moving out from the mountains back onto the prairie, where people and agriculture now dominate the landscape. The return of the grizzly to the Great Plains has been hailed a conservation success story but has come with the unintended consequence of increased human-bear conflicts.

Training bears to stay away

Some people are upset with having to live with such a fearsome animal. Grizzlies can kill livestock, people, and cause property damage. Fortunately, people are not on the typical bear menu and attacks are extraordinarily rare. Nevertheless, their presence makes all these risks possible, and therefore, it is essential for wildlife managers to prevent these conflicts and resolve issues quickly when they do occur. Addressing people’s concerns over grizzly bears is necessary for the successful long-term conservation of the species.

With the expansion of grizzlies onto the prairie, locals demanded more responsiveness to address people’s worries. Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks and the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the state and federal agencies tasked with managing the protected species, responded by hiring me in 2017. I was the first bear manager based entirely on the Great Plains. Initially, I held a dozen public meetings to hear what people wanted. Resoundingly, people said they didn’t want bears near homes, in town, or damaging property, namely livestock. This seemed like a reasonable request, so I offered to haze bears away. Hazing is the act of the chasing an animal away from an undesirable place or stop it from doing a specific behavior, like attacking livestock. Some people jumped at the idea and offered to help, while others were skeptical. The disbelievers said hazing wouldn’t work or it would merely move a bear to someone else’s land.

With limited information available on hazing, I decided to start collecting data to test if it worked. I wanted to know if hazing was effective at moving bears away from undesirable places. In addition, I wanted to know if it taught grizzlies to stay away from people long-term, which is called aversive conditioning.

From dogs to drones

I started the program with the basic tools of any bear manager - a truck and shotgun with non-lethal deterrents, like cracker shells and rubber rounds. One day, I got a call about a bear in some trees near a family’s house. I drove out to the farm on that rainy day to chase the bear off so the kids and livestock would be safe. My truck, however, was limited by the wet ground - I couldn’t drive up to where the bear was because I would get stuck. So, I went out on foot, shooting the firecracker-like cracker shells from my shotgun. The big, agitated male grizzly didn’t take kindly to my hazing work and charged out at me! Luckily, I was able to stop the large bear with a well-placed cracker in front of him, which spun him around and caused him to flee. After that risky encounter, I decided to get a widely touted, but scientifically untested tool – bear dogs.

A month later I had two adult Airedales, known as the king of terriers, to help me haze grizzlies. I picked this type of dog because the local people favored the breed and conservation outcomes are supposed to be more successful when those local perceptions are considered. It didn’t take long for me to realize that the bear dogs weren’t all they were hyped up to be. Much of the time the two dogs couldn’t detect a bear that I could see across a field, or they chased whatever animal they discovered first. Oftentimes they went after feral cats and porcupines. I tried relentlessly to better train the dogs, but the effort had little effect. Realizing the dogs weren’t a miracle solution, I decided to try a more technological approach that had also never been tested before – drones.

 Equipped with a highly maneuverable, buzzing drone I was scattering bears with accuracy. I could precisely chase bears exactly where I wanted them – all from the safety and comfort of my truck. The unmanned aerial vehicle was exactly the magic tool that I had been needing. Even at night, I could find bears from afar with the thermal camera, and then fly in closer to move them away from towns, homes, and livestock. The drone was such an asset that I couldn’t imagine doing the job without it.

Even though all the tools had some success at moving bears away from people, the drone performed notably better than dogs. With the drone I was no longer limited by fences, canals, and other obstacles that would’ve stopped me or limited my range with the other tools. All the hazing work seemed to pay off. Older bears required less hazing, and the number of hazing events declined over each calendar year – evidence that long term aversive conditioning was occurring. Bears appeared to learn to stay away from people. The aversive conditioning likely prevented some conflicts from occurring, which meant bears would be less likely to get into trouble. It was a win-win.

Airedale 'Gum' after an unfortunate run-in with a porcupine. 

Credit

Wesley Sarmento/Montana Fish, Wildlife, and Parks

One method of bear hazing included working with Airedales, named Gum and Hucksley.

Credit

Sarah Zielke/Montana Fish, Wildlife, and Parks

The number of hazing events declined over each calendar year – evidence that long term aversive conditioning was occurring.

Credit

Wesley Sarmento/Montana Fish, Wildlife, and P

A bear dog is searching a bear den on the prairie. 

Credit

Wesley Sarmento/Montana Fish, Wildlife, and Parks

In the contiguous US, grizzly bears have been a protected species since the 1970s, which has led some populations to increase considerably and expand their range, reclaiming historic habitat.

Credit

Wesley Sarmento/Montana Fish, Wildlife, and Parks

Journal

Frontiers in Conservation Science

DOI

10.3389/fcosc.2024.1478450 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Animals

Article Title

Drones outperform dogs for hazing bears: a comparison of carnivore aversive conditioning tools

Article Publication Date

27-Jan-202

 

Botanic Gardens must team up to save wild plants from extinction

University of Cambridge

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Cambridge University Botanic Garden was the first botanic garden in the UK to grow this endangered tree species. It is distributed in at least 372 botanic gardens globally.

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Credit: Cambridge University Botanic Garden

A major study of botanic gardens around the world has revealed their struggles with one fundamental aim: to safeguard the world’s most threatened plants from extinction.

Researchers analysed a century’s worth of records - from 1921 to 2021 - from fifty botanic gardens and arboreta currently growing half a million plants, to see how the world’s living plant collections have changed over time. 

The results suggest that the world’s living collections have collectively reached peak capacity, and that restrictions on wild plant collecting around the world are hampering efforts to gather plant diversity on the scale needed to study and protect it.

There is little evidence that institutions are managing to conserve threatened plants within collections, on a global scale, despite accelerating rates of elevated extinction risk. The findings imply that tackling the loss of biodiversity has not been prioritised across the world’s botanic gardens as a collective - a fact the researchers say must be urgently addressed.

Curator of Cambridge University Botanic Garden Professor Samuel Brockington, who led the work, said: “A concerted, collaborative effort across the world’s botanic gardens is now needed to conserve a genetically diverse range of plants, and to make them available for research and future reintroduction into the wild.”

In their report, published in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution, the researchers say the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has effectively halved the level at which plants are being collected from the wild, and also created obstacles to the international exchange of plants.

Brockington, who is also Professor of Evolution in the University of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences, said: “The impact of the Convention on Biological Diversity is a remarkable demonstration of the power and value of international agreements. But it seems to be preventing individual botanic gardens from working with many globally threatened plant species that we could help save from extinction.”

Collective thinking

As much as 40% of the world’s plant diversity is at elevated risk of extinction. Acceptance that individual collections have limited capacity to single-handedly prevent species extinction demands a rethink as to how they collaborate to store and safeguard diversity in living collections.

The researchers say it will be vital for the living collections to be considered as a ‘meta-collection’ in future: only by working closely together will the world’s botanic gardens be able to hold the range of plants needed to make a meaningful contribution to conservation efforts. This will include sharing data and expertise and supporting the development of new collections in the global south, where much of the world’s biodiversity is located. 

The researchers point out that some individual institutions, like the Royal Botanic Gardens Edinburgh, have successfully targeted and measurably conserved threatened conifer species. Similarly, Botanic Gardens Conservation International (BGCI) has established numerous global conservation consortia. However, these initiatives are the exception.

Wild decline

Plants must be regularly replaced or propagated within living collections: the average lifetime of a specimen is just 15 years. But the team’s analysis found that the number of wild-origin plants - those collected in the wild - in the collections peaked in 1993 and has been in decline ever since. 

“It is certainly not getting any easier to sustain the diversity of our collections. This is especially true for wild-collected plants, and they’re the most valuable for us in terms for supporting research, and in finding solutions to the twin challenges of climate change and global biodiversity loss,” said Brockington.

Weather worries

As climate change alters growing conditions in different regions of the world, it will become more challenging for individual botanic gardens to continue to grow such a diverse range of species.

Brockington said: “Climate change affects our work directly by altering local weather conditions - we’ve already seen record-breaking temperatures in

Cambridge in recent years. That’s going to affect how well our plants survive, so we need to think rationally and collectively about the best locations to hold different species across the global network of living collections.” 

On 25 July 2019, Cambridge University Botanic Garden reached 38.70C - the highest temperature ever recorded in the UK at that time.

Diversity is key

Genetic diversity is important when it comes to protecting plants at risk of extinction, because it allows for breeding populations of species that can adapt to future challenges. The more individual plants of a particular species in a collection, the greater the genetic diversity is likely to be. 

The team says data from the International Conifer Conservation Programme, run by the Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, shows that living collections can make a valuable contribution to conservation efforts - given the right resource and focus. By distributing threatened species across a network of safe sites, the trees are grown where they grow best, and as a whole they represent a strong sample of the genetic diversity of this important group.

Ethical collecting

Last year, Cambridge University Botanic Garden advertised for a new ‘Expedition Botanist’ to lead global plant-collection expeditions and contribute to vital conservation efforts. 

Brockington says these expeditions remain vital to work to safeguard and study the world’s plant species. He suggests that collaborative collecting work is possible, in a fair and ethical way, that builds equitable international partnerships. 

The CBD is a global agreement, signed by 150 government leaders in 1992, dedicated to promoting sustainable development. It makes each country responsible for protecting its own biodiversity, and supports fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of the use of that biodiversity.

There are 3,500 botanic gardens and arboreta worldwide. They exist so that scientists can study, conserve and provide access to the world’s plants, as well as showcasing them to the public.

Botanic Gardens Conservation International (BGCI) is a charity whose purpose is to mobilise botanic gardens and engage partners in securing plant diversity for the wellbeing of people and the planet.
 

The study showed that restrictions on wild plant collecting around the world are hampering efforts by botanic garden teams to gather plant diversity on the scale needed to study and protect it.

Credit

Brett Wilson/ University of Cambridge

The study indicates that a concerted, collaborative effort across the world’s botanic gardens is now needed to conserve a genetically diverse range of plants, and to make them available for research and future reintroduction into the wild.

Credit

Cambridge University Botanic Garden

This tulip species is not threatened but is rare in cultivation, and under-distributed across the world's botanic gardens.

Credit

Howard Rice

Journal

Nature Ecology & Evolution

DOI

10.1038/s41559-024-02633-z 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Article Title

‘Insights from a century of data reveal global trends in ex situ living plant collections

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FU MANCHU  1932