Angola’s Oil Sector Making A Comeback After OPEC Exit

By Alex Kimani - Jan 30, 2025

In 2023, Angola officially announced that was leaving OPEC.

Angola's average daily oil production hit 1.134 million barrels in the first three quarters of 2024, good for a 4% increase compared to 2023 production.

Exploration has picked up in Angola following the OPEC-exit.




In 2023, Angola officially announced that it was leaving OPEC amid a disagreement over oil production quotas, ending its 16-year stint in the cartel. Angola, Africa’s second-largest crude producer, became the fourth country to leave OPEC after Indonesia, Qatar and Ecuador left in 2009, 2019 and 2020, respectively.

Relations between the South African country and OPEC came to a head after OPEC gave the green light to the United Arab Emirates to increase its production by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.2 million barrels in 2024, but lowered Angola’s quota to 1.1 mb/d, roughly in-line with the country’s declining production.

However, the move did not go down well with Angola,“Our role in the organization was not deemed relevant. It was not a decision made lightly — the time has come,” Angola’s Mineral Resources Minister Diamantino Azevedo said while announcing the withdrawal.

And now it appears that Angola’s recalcitrance is beginning to pay off. Angola's average daily oil production hit 1.134 million barrels in the first three quarters of 2024, good for a 4% increase compared to 2023 production. According to the Angola Press Agency, government stabilization measures have contributed to the uptick in production, with the gains attributed to the commissioning of new oil wells and interventions in various concessions.

Luckily, the country is also witnessing a surge in both onshore and offshore oil and gas discoveries coupled with rising exploratory activity. A few weeks ago, Nigerian multinational energy company Oando PLC was awarded operatorship of Block KON 13 in Angola’s Onshore Kwanza Basin by the Angolan National Agency for Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels (ANPG). Block KON 13 is located in the prolific Kwanza Onshore Basin with estimated prospective resources of 770 to 1,100 million barrels of oil. With a 45% participating interest, Oando’s subsidiary Oando Energy Resources will lead the development of the block as operator, alongside Effimax (30%) and Sonangol (15%) as co-venturer.

Last September, pan Angola-Brazil focused exploration and production company Corcel announced that its contractor, Metatek Group, has completed the acquisition of data phase of the Enhanced Full Tensor Gradiometry Survey ('eFTG') on Block KON-16. Corcel holds an operated and controlling interest in KON-16, a large (1000 sq km) block in the onshore Kwanza Basin.

Back in 2020, Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) announced that it has, together with its partners, discovered hydrocarbons in Block 15 off Angola in the Bavuca South prospect. This was the block’s 18th discovery, but the first since 2003. According to Exxon, the Valaris DS-9 drillship drilled the Bavuca South-1 well 365 km northwest from the coast at Luanda in 1,100 m (3,608 ft) of water, encountering 30 m (98 ft) of good-quality, hydrocarbon-bearing sandstone. Exxon owns a 36% interest in the block, with BP Exploration Angola (24%), ENI Angola Exploration (18%), Equinor Angola Block 15 (12%) and Sonangol P&P (10%) being its partners.

Uphill Task

That said, Angola is facing a herculean task in its bid to return to its former glory. The country’s production when it joined OPEC in 2007 clocked in at 1.66 million b/d, peaking at 1.88 mb/d a year later. From there the country’s output somewhat plateaued, dropping slightly to 1.80 mb/d by 2015 before going into a steep decline in the subsequent years. Angola’s major challenge has been a failure to attract enough investments for its aging, deepwater oil fields. Whereas the country’s oil deposits at first drew the attention and deep pockets of corporate majors BP Plc (NYSE:BP), Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM), and Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX), its deepwater fields have declined faster than those onshore. Before its exit, Angola repeatedly failed to meet OPEC production quotas. Further, the country’s tax regime has also deterred investment, a situation that worsened when crude prices slumped from 2014 to 2016.

Angola will also be keen to avoid the so-called ‘resource curse’ that has afflicted many resource-rich African nations. To wit, in August, Mozambique officially started exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) after years of delay thanks to rampant corruption and political instability. Back in 2010, Anadarko Corp. (now a subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum Corp.) and Italian energy giant Eni S.p.A. announced the discovery of approximately 180 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, equivalent to ~29 billion barrels of oil, in Mozambique’s supergiant offshore basin of Rovuma, immediately catapulting the south African nation to a potential global LNG superpower. As you might expect, there was a stampede by oil and gas majors including ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), TotalEnergies, Shell (NYSE:SHEL), Eni S.p.A. and China National Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: SNP) coming in to stake their claims.

But it was not long before terrorism and the long tail of the “hidden loans” corruption scandal, in which senior officials had formed state-owned companies that borrowed billions of dollars off-the-books, started to cast a pall on the economy and took a toll on investor confidence.

Mozambique was plagued by a 16-year civil war that ended in 1992, yet resurgent armed conflict remains a major challenge. The root causes, as always, have been underdevelopment and corruption. Over a period spanning more than five years, a notorious terrorist organization that aligned itself with the Islamic State carried out dozens of attacks, especially in the Cabo Delgado province. The insurgency killed more than 1,500 people and displaced another 250,000 in the country’s north.

Thankfully, the country’s current outlook is far more positive than it’s been in decades, with Mozambique having managed to attract significant investments after President Felipe Nyusi was sworn in in 2020.

"The completion of this international venture is a sign of the recognition by the market that Mozambique offers a stable, transparent and predictable environment for the realization of multi-billion investments, where high technology stands out in order to monetize resources in a phase of the energy transition, therefore it must bring pride to all Mozambicans, " President Nyusi said after the first shipment of gas under a long-term purchase and sale contract with British giant BP.


Angola will be looking to Mozambique for some important lessons as the country starts to unlock its gas riches valued at nearly $100 billion.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M


Trafigura and former executive found guilty of bribing Angolan official

Reuters | January 31, 2025

Mike Wainwright. Credit: Trafigura Group

Switzerland’s top criminal court convicted trading house Trafigura and a former senior executive of corruption on Friday in an unprecedented case over payments made to an Angolan official in exchange for oil contracts.


It ordered Trafigura to pay a fine of 3 million Swiss francs ($3.3 million) and $145.6 million in compensation, and sentenced Trafigura’s former chief operating officer Mike Wainwright to 32 months in prison, of which 12 must be served.


Explaining the verdict, judge Stephan Zenger referred to “organizational failures” and said that it would have been reasonable to expect a company the size of Trafigura to more closely monitor payments to its intermediaries. “The shortcomings noted are not negligible,” he told the court.

Wainwright had indirectly profited from the bribery, Zenger said. His lawyer said he would appeal the verdict, which will place the prison sentence on hold pending the outcome.

The case was the first time in Switzerland that a company was charged at its highest court with corrupting a foreign official, and a very rare instance globally of a former top executive of a trading firm landing in the dock.

“It is a strong signal that reflects the determination of (Swiss prosecutors) to combat all forms of transnational corruption, particularly in the commodities sector,” the Office of the Attorney General of Switzerland said in a statement.


The total payment, which is just shy of the $156 million sought by prosecutors, is a fraction of Trafigura’s earnings which have been boosted by an energy price rally.

Prosecutors alleged that Trafigura and others paid bribes of over $5 million via a network of intermediaries to the Angolan official to win oil deals from 2009 to 2011.

Trafigura lawyer Jean-Francois Ducrest said the Singapore-based commodities trading firm, which has major operations in Geneva, would take stock of the situation.

“It is a first step in a long judicial process,” he said. The company said in a statement it was disappointed by the outcome and that it had invested significant resources strengthening its compliance program over a number of years.

Wainwright, who has also had a successful career as a racing driver, has denied all the allegations against him. “Today’s verdict lacks grounding. The court found Mr. Wainwright guilty based on general assumptions and disregarded key evidence that shows he was not involved in any bribery scheme,” his lawyer Daniel Kinzer said in a statement.

The 51-year-old Briton, now retired, sat in court with his arms crossed as the verdict was read out and declined comment afterwards.

Two other defendants, including the Angolan official, were also found guilty and sentenced to 36 months and 24 months each, with the former sentence partially suspended and the latter fully suspended. Reuters did not name them due to restrictions under Swiss privacy rules. They had denied the charges as well and did not attend the verdict.

During the trial in the southern Swiss city of Bellinzona, the court was shown dozens of pages of documents, memos, emails and messages as supporting evidence.

Some involved an ex-Trafigura employee whom the indictment says was nicknamed “Mr. Non-Compliant” by late Trafigura founder Claude Dauphin because he did things forbidden at the group. Dauphin’s family says he has been singled out unfairly and the family lawyer contests the importance given to the evidence for the nickname.

($1 = 0.9093 Swiss francs)

(By Emma Farge; Editing by Matthias Williams, Mark Heinrich and Mark Potter)

Ottawa announces deferral in implementing capital gains changes, new exemptions

By Daniel Johnson

January 31, 2025 


Canada delays capital gains tax change to 2026

VP of advocacy at the CFIB Corinne Pohlmann shares her reac tion to the feds delaying its capital gains tax hike to Jan. 1, 2026 after court challenges forced Trudeau's government to abandon the policy.

The federal government announced it is deferring the implementation of its change to the capital gains inclusion rate from June 25 of this year to Jan. 1 2026.

The government announced the deferral in a press release Friday and said it would “maintain or enhance” existing exemptions and create new incentives for investment.

The tax hike would raise the inclusion rate on capital gains that companies pay to two-thirds from one half. On an individual basis, the changes would apply to those with earnings from capital gains above $250,000.

LeBlanc, the minister of finance and intergovernmental affairs, said in the announcement.

“Given the current context, our government felt that it was the responsible thing to do. I look forward to further conversations with Canadians on how we can ensure Canada’s fiscal policy encourages robust and sustained economic activity in every region of our country.”

Four exemptions highlighted

The government highlighted four exemptions that were being maintained or created.

This included maintaining the principal residence exception to “ensure Canadians do not pay capital gains taxes when selling their home,” the release said.

Ottawa also said it would pair a new $250,000 annual threshold for Canadians effective Jan. 1 2026, with the increase to the lifetime capital gains to “ensure individuals earning modest capital gains” can benefit from the one-half inclusion rate.

“Capital gains, including on the sale of a secondary property, such as a cottage, will be eligible for the $250,000 annual threshold, meaning a couple selling a cottage with a $500,000 capital gain would not pay more tax,” the release reads.

The third exemption listed was a move to increase the lifetime capital gains exemption to $1.25 million, from the current amount of $1,016,836, for the sale of small business shares as well as farming and fishing property. This exemption is effective June 25, 2024, according to the government.

“With this increase, Canadians with eligible capital gains below $2.25 million would pay less tax and be better off, even after the inclusion rate increases on January 1, 2026,” the release said.

Lastly, the government said it is introducing a new Canadian entrepreneurs’ incentive “to encourage entrepreneurship by reducing the inclusion rate to one-third on a lifetime maximum of $2 million in eligible capital gains.”

“This incentive would take effect starting in the 2025 tax year and the maximum would increase by $400,000 each year, reaching $2 million in 2029. Combined with the new $1.25 million lifetime capital gains exemption, when this incentive is fully rolled out, entrepreneurs would pay less tax and be better off on capital gains of up to $6.25 million,” the release said.

The increased inclusion rate on the capital gains tax was initially proposed in the federal government’s budget last April and subsequently introduced in a ways and means motion. The proposed change has not been passed in parliament, which is prorogued until March 24.

The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) said in a release Friday that as a result of the government’s announcement, it would revert to administering the current capital gains inclusion rate of one half. Meaning that capital gains realized before Jan. 1, 2026 will be subject to the “currently enacted inclusion rate of one-half, unless an exemption applies.”


“The announcement confirms the government’s intention that, effective for dispositions that occur on or after January 1, 2026, the inclusion rate will increase from one-half to two-thirds on capital gains realized in excess of $250,000 annually for individuals and on all capital gains realized by corporations and most types of trusts,” the release said.

The deferral will offer more clarity for individuals and businesses, which were facing some uncertainty.

Earlier this month, the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) said it would continue to administer the changes to the capital gains tax despite the fact that it wasn’t passed in Parliament.

In a statement to BNNBloomberg.ca earlier this month Jessica Brandon-Jepp, senior director of fiscal and financial services policy at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said that some Canadians and businesses had concerns about how the measure would be enforced after the prorogation of Parliament.

“It is inappropriate—and, by our analysis, unprecedented—for a government to continue to implement a tax change solely based on a ‘Ways and Means’ motion, with the clear threat of a non-confidence motion and no clear timeline to table legislation,” Brandon-Jepp said.

“This increased uncertainty compounds the impact of this tax increase in driving away new investment and entrepreneurship from our country at the exact moment we need it most.”

With files from the Canadian Press.


Daniel Johnson

Journalist, BNNBloomberg.ca

CANADA'S  'GREEN'BANKER

If he becomes prime minister, Mark Carney will ‘immediately remove’ the consumer carbon tax

By Stephanie Ha

January 31, 2025 

Liberal leadership hopeful Mark Carney says – if he were to become prime minister – his government would “immediately remove” the consumer carbon tax and replace the policy with an incentive program to “reward Canadians for making green choices.”

“It means that you’ll no longer have to pay more to fuel your car or heat your home, but when you choose an energy-efficient appliance or an electric car or home insulation, you will be rewarded, and we will get the big polluters to pay for it,” Carney said during a campaign event Friday in Halifax.

The carbon tax would also be removed for small- and medium-sized businesses.

This marks Carney’s first policy announcement since declaring his intention to run for Liberal leader. The former Bank of Canada governor, who recently worked as a United Nations special envoy for climate action, has previously defended the consumer carbon tax.

Asked about his shifting stance, Carney said the policy has “become very divisive for Canadians,” in part due to misinformation around it.


“We are in this situation, and it’s important that climate policy has brought buy-in. There’s a better way to do things,” Carney said. “We’ve worked on coming up with a better way to do things, which keeps an element of the price on pollution, the most important element, which is the industrial price.”

In a statement, the Conservatives claim Carney will “pause Trudeau’s carbon tax until after the election and then bring in a bigger tax with no rebate.”

“Whatever he tries to tell Canadians now, Carbon Tax Carney has been Justin Trudeau’s Economic Growth Advisor, who has been saying for years not only that he supports consumer carbon taxes but that they need to be even higher,” the statement goes on to say.
How will green incentives work?

Carney says his climate policy will both lower emissions and bring forward new economic measures that will “make Canadian families better off.”

Speaking on Friday, Carney says climate incentives for Canadians would be funded by big polluters “by developing and integrating a new consumer carbon credit market into the industrial pricing system.”

Carney says his government would improve and tighten the output-based pricing system, which has industrial emitters provide compensation if they exceed greenhouse gas limits, and provide more incentive for those companies to reduce emissions.

Consumer rebates would then be packaged as a credit that large industrial emitters can purchase and use against their own emissions.

“We can structure this so that there’s no cost to the taxpayer or recycle some of that money back into other climate action,” Carney said to reporters.

According to Carney’s plan, “specific credit levels” could be used towards appliance and electric vehicle purchases, saying “households are looking at fixed-level, dollar levels of rebates that they will get for taking those steps.”

If elected, Carney also says his government would introduce and improve incentives for home retrofits and subsidies for heat pumps.

Where do other Liberal contenders stand on the consumer carbon tax?

Carney has received the endorsement of multiple cabinet ministers, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s environment and climate change minister Steven Guilbeault, who has been a staunch defender of the policy.

But last week, even Guilbeault conceded that while he believes “the consumer price on pollution is one of the best tools we have to fight climate change,” he admitted “it’s not the only one we have.”

Fellow Liberal leadership contender and Trudeau’s former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland has already said she would scrap the consumer carbon tax. Former government House leader Karina Gould – who is also in the race – says she will pause the upcoming April 1 increase.

Meanwhile, former Liberal MP Frank Baylis has said he would fix the carbon price, but did not say how.

The future of the consumer carbon tax — a marquee climate policy from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government — has come under the spotlight during the Liberal leadership race.

The consumer carbon tax came into effect in 2019, under the Trudeau government, and has grown to be unpopular among Canadians.

The Conservatives have used the policy to attack Liberals for years and called for a “carbon tax election.” The tax has also received significant pushback from most premiers, including Liberal Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey, and some Liberal MPs have even expressed a desire to scrap it.

This April, the price on carbon is set to increase to $95 a tonne from $80 a tonne in provinces where the federal backstop applies, costing drivers an extra 3.3 cents per litre at the pump.

The tax is scheduled to increase another $15 each year until it reaches $170 a tonne in 2030. To offset the cost, Canadians who live in regions where the backstop applies will receive a quarterly payment known as the “Canada Carbon Rebate.”

The Liberal party will pick its next leader on March 9.


Stephanie Ha
Supervising Producer, Ottawa News Bureau, CTV News

Price increases, new partners on the table as Canadian businesses prepare for tariffs

By The Canadian Press

January 31, 2025

Jessica Miao is co-founder of Apricotton, a Toronto-based company making bras that grow as their tween and teen wearers develop.

TORONTO — Jessica Miao has been stressed out since November, when U.S. President Donald Trump first threatened to slap 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods.

The co-founder of Apricotton, a Toronto-based company making bras for teens, sees the promised tariffs as “a huge threat” to her business, which was due to expand deeper in the highly coveted U.S. market this year.

“The biggest concern that we have is just that (the tariffs) are going to make it more difficult to sell to American customers,” said Miao.

“They might be detracted by the higher prices that they will have to pay if we don’t absorb any of the tariff costs.”

Trump has teased the tariffs could arrive Saturday but has also given U.S. officials until April to consider the matter. He has yet to reveal what industries he may target.


The lack of clarity has left Canadian businesses unsure of what to prepare for and how quickly, but many say they’re not leaving anything to chance.

They have drawn up plans they’re prepared to use to protect themselves — no matter Trump’s whims.

Their readiness has been obvious to Kinaxis — an Ottawa-based company that sells software to businesses including Unilever, Procter & Gamble, Ford and Subaru — as many firms use the software to organize their supply chains and forecast how they will be impacted by future economic, trade and supplier changes.

“The volume of scenarios that are being run the week of Jan. 20 and a few weeks before are at the same level as the scenarios people were creating in the early days of COVID,” said Mark Morgan, Kinaxis’s president of global commercial operations.

“That’s because companies are trying to simulate, ‘OK, what are my options?’”

This kind of “what if planning” has included companies investigating whether they can source products from other countries or wherever they’re headquartered, along with looking at alternative travel routes and pricing that takes tariffs into account.

Kinaxis says it has been most pronounced in the automotive, chemical, oil and gas, and food and consumer goods industries.

Charlene Li is among the Canadian food business owners in preparation mode because she expects tariffs would have a “big impact” on her alcohol-infused popcorn company, Eatable.

The Vaughan, Ont.-based company has been selling to U.S. customers since its inception six years ago, but tariffs would likely make the cost of shipping orders over the border much more expensive.

To avoid some of that cost, Li is considering finding partners in the U.S. who could produce some of the popcorn there and ship it out to American customers.

That idea would help Eatable avoid tariffs, but there are trade-offs.


“Certain ingredients, for example, sugar, actually cost less for us to purchase here in Canada than in the U.S.,” Li said.

Because Eatable won’t have U.S. production up and running soon, she said the company will likely also look at its pricing and margins.

The company may resort to a price increase on some flavours, consider passing off some logistics costs to buyers or changing the thresholds they had for free shipping or discounted deliveries.

Miao has also been thinking about pricing.

Apricotton charges U.S. customers more than Canadians to offset exchange rates, but might stomach some of the tariff costs if American consumers appear more hesitant to buy.

She is also considering onboarding a U.S. fulfilment site or changing how her products ship to customers.

Apricotton bras are designed in Canada, but made in China, where Trump has also floated 60 per cent tariffs.

“Because the China tariffs right now are also up in the air, we might have to reroute the product to an intermediary country,” Miao said.

Despite the uncertainty, she was committed to ensuring tariffs don’t upend Apricotton’s U.S. ambitions.

“We know that the U.S. is a 10 times bigger market than Canada, so we still want to expand there,” she said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 31, 2025.

Tara Deschamps, The Canadian Press

Chrystia Freeland says Canada should target Elon Musk’s Tesla in a tariff fight

By Kyle Duggan, 

The Canadian Press

January 31, 2025 

Elon Musk arrives speaks at an indoor Presidential Inauguration parade event in Washington, Monday, Jan. 20, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP/Matt Rourke

Liberal leadership candidate Chrystia Freeland says Ottawa should target Tesla vehicles and U.S. alcohol as part of its tariff retaliation package to send a message that an attack on Canadian trade would not be cost-free for Trump’s allies.

In an interview with The Canadian Press, Freeland said there should be a 100 per cent tariff on all U.S. wine, beer and spirits, and on all Teslas.

“We need to be very targeted, very surgical, very precise,” Freeland said. “We need to look through and say who is supporting Trump and how can we make them pay a price for a tariff attack on Canada.”

The move would target Tesla CEO Elon Musk and other power brokers in Trump’s orbit, along with powerful lobby groups such as Wisconsin dairy farmers.

Tesla’s chief financial officer Vaibhav Taneja warned on an earnings call earlier this week that tariffs could hurt the company’s profitability and pointed out that Tesla relies on parts from all over the world.

Musk, the world’s richest man and social media mogul, has emerged as a close ally of Trump. He attended the president’s swearing-in ceremony this month and played a role in Trump’s election campaign this fall, raising some $200 million US through a political action committee. He has also taken on a role in the new administration aimed at slashing government spending and regulations.

Freeland said Canada needs to deliver the message to Trump’s closest supporters that if you hit Canada, it will hit back — and it will hurt.

“One of the characteristics of the Trump administration is they like to traffic in uncertainty,” she said. “There are lots of reports about there being internal debates in the U.S. (administration), so let’s use that to our advantage. And let’s put some cards on the table and be very clear that if they hit us, we will hit them back.”

Trump suggested Thursday that he still plans to go ahead with his plan to hit Canada and Mexico with 25 per cent across-the-board tariffs on Saturday. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday that Canada stands ready to respond if Trump acts on his threat.

Freeland repeated her call for the federal government to publish its retaliatory tariff list as soon as possible — and for it to be made larger than Canada’s actual list of tariff targets to drive the point home.

“We need to publish it today because there’s still time,” she said. “This is an existential challenge, and that will be true whether tariffs come on Saturday or whether the threat of tariffs is still hanging over our heads like a sword of Damocles and April 1 is the date.”

While Canada has not yet made public its list of targets for retaliatory tariffs, federal officials have selectively leaked certain items on the shortlist, such as orange juice from Florida.

Former finance minister Freeland — who has prior experience with the first Trump administration and who was until last month tasked with spearheading Canada’s response to Trump 2.0 — has called for the release of a list of $200 billion in retaliatory tariffs to deter Trump.

In her run for the Liberal leadership, Freeland has sought to define herself as the best person to counter Trump by detailing how she would respond to the tariff threat. She has pitched a “Buy Canadian” procurement policy and has promised to rally provincial premiers and other nations threatened by Trump tariffs.

Rival leadership candidate Mark Carney took a different stance in Halifax this morning. He said Canada shouldn’t show any of its cards until the Trump administration actually takes action.

Carney said he doesn’t want to say “anything that undercuts” Canadian government officials in talks with the new U.S. administration.


“We have negotiators literally at the front line,” he said. “We’re not turning over any of our cards face up.”

Several federal cabinet ministers, including Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly and Public Safety Minister David McGuinty, were in Washington Friday to make a last-ditch push to convince the Trump administration to back away from the tariff threat.

Carney has sought to leverage his economic credentials as a former Bank of Canada governor to present himself as the best economic steward to replace Trudeau as Liberal leader.

Leadership candidate Karina Gould said Thursday her response to Trump would depend on where Canada stands once she becomes leader.

“We need to see where we are,” she said. “I have said very strongly that what we need to do is to be united as a country, and we need to have everything on the table.”

Former Liberal MPs Frank Baylis and Ruby Dhalla are also running for the Liberal leadership. The race ends with a vote on March 9.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 31, 2025.

Liberal Cabinet ministers make last-ditch pitch in D.C. to stop Trump tariffs on Canada

By The Canadian PressJanuary 31, 2025 

Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio walk towards the Treaty Room at the U.S. State Department, Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025. (AP / Manuel Balce Ceneta)

WASHINGTON — A trio of federal cabinet ministers is in Washington today making a last-ditch attempt to stop U.S. President Donald Trump from imposing economically devastating tariffs on Canadian imports.

Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Public Safety Minister David McGuinty and Immigration Minister Marc Miller are all in the U.S. capital, making a final diplomatic push to convince Republican lawmakers and Trump’s team to sway the president.

Trump has signalled he’s prepared to slap 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports as early as Saturday.

Trump initially claimed his 25 per cent tariff threat was in response to a failure by Canada and Mexico to curb the illegal flow of people and drugs across the border.

Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc sent a video Thursday describing Canada’s border security efforts to Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary.


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says if the U.S. does move ahead with tariffs, Canada will respond quickly, and says every option is on the table.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 31, 2025.

Oil Advances After Trump Confirms Tariffs Will Apply to Crude

By Alex Longley and Mia Gindis,

 Bloomberg News

January 31, 2025 

(Bloomberg) -- Oil rose in late trading after US President Donald Trump said the US would impose tariffs on imports of crude, a move that threatens to disrupt flows across North America’s tightly integrated energy market.

West Texas Intermediate advanced to $73.70 at 4:37 p.m. in New York, up 1.6% from its settlement price. Trump, speaking in the Oval Office, said he would implement tariffs on a wide range of imports in the coming months, including steel, aluminum, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, as well as semiconductors. Still, Trump said he may reduce tariffs on oil from Canada, bringing them down to 10%, after setting an original levy for the country’s goods at 25%.

The latest statements add another twist to a tumultuous day in the oil market, when prices were repeatedly buffeted by conflicting messages on the timing and scope of the planned levies against major US trading partners and crude suppliers Canada and Mexico.

Heavy Western Canadian Select crude for delivery in the second quarter traded at about $15.30 a barrel less than WTI after Trump’s latest statement, according to people familiar with the pricing. That discount is $1 a barrel wider than before the statement.

WTI slid earlier in the day on a report the measures would be delayed and some goods may be exempted from the restrictions. Futures later pared those losses — and even briefly flipped positive — after the White House denied the report and reiterated plans to impose the tariffs on Feb. 1.

The inclusion of crude in the tariffs would risk major reverberations across the oil market. Canada ships about 4 million barrels a day to the US, and the countries’ energy markets are closely integrated, with refiners in the Midwest the most vulnerable to disruptions.

Valero Energy Corp., the third-biggest US fuelmaker by market value, expects processors to cut production if tariffs hit oil imports. Canadian crude prices have been volatile in the weeks since the tariffs were first floated, while premiums for gasoline and diesel have risen in recent days.

“The inclusion of Canada oil in a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico would likely initially raise gasoline prices in the US Midwest, and eventually weigh on crude prices globally (via weaker demand) and especially in Canada, where producers have limited export options,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note.

--With assistance from Robert Tuttle.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

‘Everybody else went off freelancing’: Alberta premier insists she isn’t undermining Canadian case with Trump

By Spencer Van Dyk

January 26, 2025 


Alberta Premier Danielle Smith — who’s stood in staunch opposition to the idea of cutting off energy exports to the U.S. in response to the potential imposition of tariffs — insists she isn’t creating a national unity crisis by publicly opposing her fellow premiers on the issue.

“I think the problem that we saw is that we were getting together as a group of premiers and the prime minister saying, ‘let’s not negotiate this in public,' and I did my part, saying, ‘let’s focus on the things that we know the Americans care about: national security and border security,’ and everybody else went off freelancing,” Smith told CTV’s Question Period host Vassy Kapelos in an interview airing Sunday.

“The thing they kept returning to was punishing Alberta and punishing energy,” Smith added. “So, I just wanted to make sure that we get back to talking about the things that unite us, rather than divide us.”

Newly inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump threatened in late November to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico on day one of his second term.

While the commander-in-chief didn’t follow through on that threat this week, he said during a signing ceremony for a flurry of executive orders on Monday that he’s now considering Feb. 1 for the measure. Trump is also threatening tariffs on China and the European Union.

As a potential retaliatory measure, the federal government has repeatedly said every option remains on the table, including cutting off Canadian energy exports to the United States or imposing an export tax on certain products and resources.

Smith, in turn, has repeatedly insisted that’s something “Albertans are just simply not going to accept.”

“Let’s be very clear about what an export tariff is,” Smith told Kapelos. “It means putting a tax on Canadian goods so that all the dollars go to Ottawa; so that Ottawa can use those dollars to redistribute (to) other provinces. And we’ve seen that newsreel before.”

Smith is also opposed to a focus on counter-tariffs.

“It’s something that we’re absolutely going to be looking at if that is how (the U.S.) move forward,” Trudeau said at last week’s cabinet retreat in Montebello, Que.

Smith disagrees, saying the emphasis in Canada’s approach should be on how to avoid tariffs altogether, rather than raising the prospect of countermeasures.

“I always think that you should try to avoid a fight, especially when you’ve got a bigger adversary that you’re fighting against,” Smith said.

“The American economy is 10 times the size of Canada, and if we get into some kind of tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs, neither country is going to benefit from that.”

The prime minister has said he supports dollar-for-dollar retaliation if necessary, as have Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Meanwhile, The Canadian Press reported this week that former NAFTA negotiator Steve Verheul told the Toronto-based Empire Club in a Tuesday speech that Alberta is undermining Canada’s negotiating position with the Americans by refusing to consider cutting off energy exports.

“I think we have to have a realistic argument,” Smith said, when asked by Kapelos about Verheul’s comments. “You really shouldn’t threaten to do things that you can’t do.”


When pressed repeatedly by Kapelos on why Canada would take its strongest leverage off the table, Smith pointed to her vision of a “Team Canada approach,” which would see more pipeline projects get underway so the country can diversify its market to be less reliant on the United States.

“I think that’s a more constructive conversation to have,” Smith said. “If we’re going to have this temporary, or maybe even more permanent, problem with our U.S. partner, we’ve got to be looking at new markets, and we would be far better off working together, rather than putting forward policies that are only going to divide us.”

Smith has also repeatedly said her preference is to find a way to prevent the tariffs altogether, namely by addressing Trump’s concerns when it comes to border security and defence spending. Trump has also talked about using tariffs to raise revenue.

The Alberta premier was in Washington for Trump’s inauguration and spent much of the past week meeting with American officials south of the border.

Asked if she has received any clarity on when tariffs could be imposed, Smith did not have a definitive answer.

“I was pleased to see that there was a reprieve. We don’t know how long that’s going to be for, but I think what I hear, no matter who I talk to, who’s close to him, is that the president likes to have a win, and you can put together a win in any number of ways,” Smith said.

The Canadian government has readied a three-phased response it could begin rolling out immediately, depending on what Trump does. The plan includes an initial round of counter-tariffs on $37 billion in goods, followed by tariffs on another $110 billion or so of American imports.

Spencer Van Dyk
Writer & Producer, Ottawa News Bureau, CTV News

What exactly is a tariff?

By Daniel Johnson

January 31, 2025 

Trump's tariffs take effect on Feb. 1, 2025.

Tariffs have become a major point of concern in Canada following a series of threats spanning months from U.S. President Donald Trump.

What is a tariff?

A tariff is a tax on imported or exported goods.

For companies importing products into the U.S., they will be required to pay a tax on those products.

Conversely, if Canada were to apply tariffs on goods imported into Canada, Canadian businesses that import from the U.S. would pay a tax on those imports, likely making products from the U.S. more expensive for Canadian consumers.


Why do governments use tariffs?

There are several reasons governments may put tariffs in place according to EDC, but generally tariffs accomplish three things.

1) Governments use them to generate revenue similar to an income or sales tax where the money can be used in a nation’s treasury and rolled into its budget

2) Tariffs can be used to protect domestic industries, if a country decides free trade from an outside nation is hurting domestic producers

3) Tariffs could be used as a diplomatic tool, to limit or ban imports or exports on goods and services from another country in an attempt to influence behaviour

How would consumers be impacted

As the threat of tariffs looms, experts believe consumers in both countries will face price increases.

A 25 per cent tariff could cost the average household around $1,900 on an annual basis, said the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

Cars and parts could get more expensive for U.S. consumers if tariffs are enacted, along with gas and food and alcoholic beverages.

Last year motor vehicles were the second largest good imported by the U.S. from Canada, coming in at US$34 billion.

The U.S. also imported US$97 billion in oil and gas from Canada last year.


How would tariffs affect the Canadian economy?

3 impactsGDP – A 25 per cent tariff could reduce Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 2.6 per cent

A 2.6 per cent reduction in GDP would equate to around $78 billion

Recession – One scenario presented in the Bank of Canada’s latest review of monetary policy shows a 2.5 per cent drop in GDP during the first year of a 25 per cent tariff followed by a 1.5 per cent drop the next year. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem characterized a hit to GDP of that size as a recession


Daniel Johnson
Journalist, BNNBloomberg

Does the U.S. really subsidize Canada, like Trump says it does?

By Jeremie Charron

January 27, 2025 

President Donald Trump speaks about the economy during an event at the Circa Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, Saturday, Jan. 25, 2025. (AP Photo/John Locher)

Is it a $100 billion or $200 billion trade deficit, or is it a subsidy?

U.S. President Donald Trump has made various and repeated claims about his country’s trade relationship with Canada to justify his tariff threats.

“Canada’s been very tough to deal with over the years,” said Trump on Thursday in a virtual address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “It’s not fair that we should have a $200 billion or $250 billion deficit.”

He has repeatedly pointed to the purported deficit during his speeches and in remarks to reporters. He has also called it a subsidy.
What is Trump talking about?

Canada and the U.S. have one of the world’s most integrated trading partnerships. The U.S. imports more Canadian goods than it exports north of the border. That difference is called a trade deficit.

In 2023, the U.S. trade deficit with Canada was US$40.6 billion, according to research by the Centre for Future Work based on United States Census Bureau data.

In 2024, the trade deficit is estimated to be around US$45 billion, according to TD Economics.

In a report published online, TD noted that it’s unclear where Trump got the $200 billion figure, which “is roughly four to five times the officially reported statistics.”

The U.S. has other, larger deficits

Those numbers are small relative to the roughly $1 trillion in goods and services that cross the border both ways each year.

It’s also smaller than other markets. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau show the U.S.’s trade deficit with Canada was only the 10th largest in 2023.

The U.S. trade deficit with Canada is significantly smaller than that of countries like China and Mexico, even though Canada is the United States’ largest export market.

“Mr. Trump quite literally makes these numbers up and they can change from one day to the next, $100 billion, $200 billion, $300. It’s like a game show,” said Jim Stanford, Economist and Director of the Centre for Future Work based in Vancouver.

A deficit or a subsidy?

Trump hasn’t clarified why he’s referred to the trade deficit with Canada as a subsidy.

“I think he and his team do understand the economics of it, in their hearts they know that a trade deficit is not a subsidy,” said Stanford.

“If anything, it’s the rest of the world subsidizing America because they run a big trade deficit with the world every year.”

“In economics, subsidy is government providing money or something of worth to a private entity or individual to get them to produce something or do something,” said Carlo Dade, Director of Trade and Trade Infrastructure for the Canada West Foundation.

“I haven’t seen the cheque arrive in Ottawa from Washington, DC made out to the Canadian Government,” he added.

Canada’s largest export is oil

Crude oil makes up the majority of Canada’s exports to the U.S. If you remove it, that deficit becomes a surplus.

“Think of every dollar of the deficit with the U.S., and it’s mostly oil, as a contribution to a job,” Dade said. “We don’t refine oil in Canada. The Americans do.”

Related StoriesTrump tells World Economic Forum U.S. doesn’t need Canadian oil, gas, autos or lumber


Jeremie Charron
Journalist, CTV National News