The inside story of Brazil's democratic near-miss
The recent charges brought against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro have stirred a firestorm of debate throughout the nation, exposing a deeply polarised political landscape and raising fundamental questions about democracy, accountability, and the rule of law. The allegations, which include plotting a coup to cling on to power and attempting to assassinate key political rivals, form the basis of one of the most significant legal actions against a former head of state in Brazilian history. This article sets out to explore the case's background, the figures involved, and the broader implications for Brazil's democracy.
The Charges and the Accusations
Brazil’s Prosecutor-General’s Office (PGR) has formally charged Jair Bolsonaro and 33 of his closest aides with attempting to overthrow the democratic order following his defeat in the 2022 presidential election. The indictment, spanning over 700 pages, details a conspiracy known as “Green and Yellow Dagger”, allegedly aimed at preventing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from taking office on January 1, 2023.
The plan reportedly involved poisoning President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, assassinating Vice President-elect Geraldo Alckmin and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, and instigating chaos to justify military intervention.
The Attorney General now maintains that Bolsonaro spearheaded "a criminal organisation based on an authoritarian project of power." The charges against Bolsonaro and his co-conspirators include attempting a coup d’état, violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, formation of an armed criminal organisation, damage to state property through the violent occupation of government buildings, issuing threats, and subversion of the constitutional order. If convicted, Bolsonaro – who was already banned from running for office until 2030 – could face up to 37 years in prison.
The Supreme Federal Court will now determine whether to accept the charges and move forward with a televised trial.
Who Was Behind the Coup Plot?
According to Brazil’s Federal Police investigation, the coup plot was not just an isolated effort by Bolsonaro but a coordinated operation involving top-ranking military officials, government insiders, and influential political figures. The 33 individuals charged have been classified into five groups, each playing a specific role in the alleged plot.
The Military Wing, which was responsible for providing military backing and securing military bases, featured a few generals. The High Command Pressure Group, whose members sought to convince the top military brass to support the coup, and the Planning Group, included Bolsonaro himself, ex-Defence Minister General Braga Netto, and General Augusto Heleno, who were allegedly responsible for coordinating the coup’s stages.
Further, there was the Execution Group, comprising government officials responsible for logistical and operational tasks, and the Disinformation and Ideological Support Group, responsible for spreading falsehoods to justify the coup attempt.
The agri-business sector was also implicated in funding the operation, reportedly providing financial support in cash payments to facilitate the execution of the plot, as well as giving out food to the protestors camped in front of the army GQ in Brasilia.
Why the Coup did not Happen?
The failure of the alleged coup plot orchestrated by Bolsonaro and his associates can be attributed to a number of key factors:
Lack of Unified Military Support
A central element in the plot's fiasco was the absence of cohesive backing from Brazil's military leadership. While the conspirators sought to involve high-ranking military officials, many within the armed forces, as was the case with the army general commander, remained committed to constitutional order and refused to support actions that would undermine democracy. This rift within the military ranks severely undermined the plot's viability.
Effective Judicial Intervention
Brazil's judiciary, particularly the Supreme Federal Court, played a pivotal role in thwarting the coup attempt. Swift legal actions, including the suspension of Brasília's governor and the arrest of key figures like Anderson Torres, the former Minister of Justice, disrupted the conspirators' plans. The judiciary's proactive stance thus strengthened the rule of law and deterred further destabilising actions.
Public and Institutional Resilience
Although the Brazilian population was – and remains – divided over the issue, over 50% of citizens and the democratic institutions displayed resilience against anti-democratic manoeuvrers. Widespread condemnation of the January 8, 2023, attacks on government buildings in Brasília showcased a collective commitment to democratic principles, even by media outlets that had favoured Bolsonaro in the elections. This societal and institutional blockage underpinned an environment where a coup was unlikely to succeed.
Internal Disorganisation Among Conspirators
The alleged plot suffered from internal disorganisation and leaks. Revelations from insiders, such as Senator Marcos do Val, who disclosed participation in meetings discussing ways to prevent President Lula's inauguration, exposed the conspiracy's plans in detail. These internal fractures and the subsequent public disclosures eroded trust among the plotters and hindered coordinated action.
International Scrutiny and Diplomatic Pressure
The international community closely monitored Brazil's political developments, especially after the January 8, 2023 invasion of official buildings in Brasilia, inspired by the events of January 6, 2021 in Washington where Trump supporters violently stormed the Capitol. International bodies and foreign leaders, such as former US President Joe Biden, expressed unwavering support for Brazil's democratic process, applying diplomatic pressure against any unconstitutional power grabs. This external vigilance further isolated the conspirators and discouraged potential supporters.
Brazilian Public Opinion on Bolsonaro’s Coup Plot
Brazil is sharply divided over these revelations. A Datafolha survey conducted in February 2025 shows that 52% of Brazilians believe Bolsonaro attempted a coup, whereas 39% do not believe the accusations and 9% remain undecided.
This polarisation reflects the deep fractures in Brazilian society between Bolsonaro’s far-right supporters and those backing Lula’s leftist government. The unfolding trial will likely further deepen these divisions, raising concerns about potential future unrest.
The charges against Bolsonaro have sparked intense debate across mainstream media and social networks. An analysis of over 4.3mn social media interactions found that 68% of online reactions supported the charges, 14% voiced opposition and 18% remained neutral.
Trending hashtags such as #BolsonaroNaCadeia (Bolsonaro in Jail), #SemAnistia (No Amnesty), and #PerseguiçãoPolítica (Political Persecution) reflect the divided opinions on the case. While conservative groups argue that Bolsonaro is the target of political persecution, others see the charges as a vital step in defending democracy.
Bolsonaro’s Reaction: Denial and Defiance
Bolsonaro has responded with a mix of defiance and victimhood. He denies all allegations, dismissing them as “empty accusations” aimed at preventing his political comeback in the 2026 elections. Bolsonaro’s legal team has submitted their defence statements, before the Supreme Court decides in a few weeks on proceeding to trial.
Privately, however, Bolsonaro has reportedly discussed fleeing Brazil to avoid prosecution. There are indications that allies have advised him to seek asylum in Argentina or the United States, and he was barred by the Supreme Court from attending Trump's inauguration in January over flight risk fears. Despite this, the right-wing leader publicly insists that he will stay in Brazil and fight the charges while also expecting support from returning US President Trump and American conservative organisations to lend credibility to the narrative that he is being politically persecuted.
For his part, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the primary target of the coup plot, has taken a measured approach, stating that Bolsonaro “has the right to defend himself” but that “if found guilty, he must face justice”. Lula has often stressed the importance of the judiciary's independence in handling the case.
The revelation that Bolsonaro’s inner circle had planned his assassination adds a personal dimension to Lula’s stance, though he has refrained from inflammatory rhetoric, preferring to let the legal process take its course.
The Impact on Brazilian Democracy
The coup plot and subsequent charges raise serious questions about Brazil’s political stability. The case demonstrates that no individual, not even a former president, is above the law in the country. But it also lays bare the fragility of Brazil’s democratic institutions, as evidenced by the use of the Presidential Palace and the President's residence, as well as the involvement of the Federal Police, the Intelligence Agency, and navy leadership in the coup conspiracy.
The armed forces are making an effort to dissociate institutional participation in the coup, instead attributing it to the actions of a few individuals within the military. They also acknowledge and recommend punishment for those who sought to undermine democratic rules.
Many see the Supreme Court and the Prosecutor-General’s Office as guardians of democracy, ensuring that Brazil does not return to the era of military dictatorship (1964–1985). However, the Organization of American States (OAS) has controversially expressed concern over Bolsonaro’s legal prosecution—a move interpreted by some as an attempt to influence Brazil’s internal judicial affairs, possibly under pressure from US President Trump’s government to downplay Bolsonaro’s role in the coup.
If the charges are accepted by the judiciary and Bolsonaro is convicted, many wonder whether Trump, who shares a warm relationship with the controversial leader based on ideological affinity, will somehow punish Brazil. This remains to be seen.
The Trump Connection: A Legal Battle Against Brazil’s Supreme Court
Adding an international layer to the controversy, Donald Trump’s business group has launched legal action against Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who last year publicly clashed with Elon Musk over disinformation on X, in US courts. Echoing Musk’s claims, Trump Media Technology Group and the political video platform Rumble have accused de Moraes of censorship for ordering the removal of far-right Brazilian accounts from social media.
In sum, the combination of steadfast loyalty to the constitution of most military forces, decisive judicial measures, public commitment to democracy, internal discord among the conspirators, and international oversight collectively led to the failure of the coup attempt in Brazil.
Ricardo Martins is based in Utrecht, the Netherlands, and has a PhD in Sociology specialising in European politics, geopolitics and international relations.
