Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Teenage years crucial for depression intervention, study finds

University of Edinburgh

Depression in young teens could be easier to treat than in adulthood due to the symptoms being more flexible and not yet ingrained, a study shows.

Researchers found that interactions between depressive symptoms – like sadness, fatigue and a lack of interest – are less predictable in teens but become more fixed in adults, which can lead to persistent depression.

The findings highlight the importance of targeting depression at an early age, when symptoms are still changing, experts say.

Depression is a complex condition, characterised by a range of connected symptoms. Current interventions treat overall depression severity and do not consider how symptoms interact and evolve over time.

Scientists at the University of Edinburgh analysed data from more than 35,000 young people to capture how depression symptoms interact throughout adolescence. The study borrowed and applied an understanding of how temperature affects matter from physics.

As temperature rises, particles move more freely and the system becomes less stable, which can be seen as matter changes from solid to liquid to gas.

The research team applied this idea to depression symptoms, using network analysis where symptoms are connected like nodes in a web. From this, they calculated the ‘network temperature’ to capture how fixed or flexible symptom patterns are.

Symptom patterns become more stable across adolescence, with individuals more likely to be persistently depressed or experience no depressive symptoms, while symptoms fluctuate at younger ages.

Experts say the variability seen in teen depression is likely to be influenced by three main factors: puberty and hormones; ongoing brain development; and social and environmental influences.

Researchers also found that among teenagers, depression symptoms stabilise faster in boys than girls, leaving less time for risk or protective factors to have an effect. Symptoms in teenage girls continue to fluctuate over a longer period.

Targeted support for young teenagers while symptoms are flexible and more responsive to treatment could help to prevent persistent depression into adulthood, the research team says.

The findings could also help to explain why some adults - with stable symptoms which are unable to change - experience depression that is resistant to treatment. But experts say further research is needed to explore the theory.

The study, funded by the Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust, is published in the journal Nature Mental Health: https://www.nature.com/articles/s44220-025-00415-5 [URL will become active after embargo lifts].

The research team included scientists from the University of Strathclyde, University College London, Karolinska Institute, and the National University of Singapore.

Poppy Grimes, study lead and PhD student from the University of Edinburgh’s Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences, said: “What’s exciting about this study is the introduction of novel approach to capture how depression symptoms interact and evolve over time, offering a fresh lens for understanding mental health in young people. It’s surprising to see how symptom patterns shift so significantly during early adolescence, highlighting the importance of timing for personalised, age-appropriate care. This insight could extend to other conditions like anxiety and help pinpoint critical intervention windows, especially during puberty.”

For further information, please contact: Jess Conway, Press and PR Office, 07979 446 209, jess.conway@ed.ac.uk

Journal

Nature Mental Health

DOI

10.1038/s44220-025-00415-5

Article Title

Network temperature as a metric of stability in depression symptoms across adolescence

Article Publication Date

29-Apr-2025

Damascus strikes deal with Druze leaders after deadly sectarian clashes

AFP
Tue, April 29, 2025

This handout picture released by the Syrian Interior Ministry Facebook page shows Syria's security forces standing guard in a street in the mostly Druze and Christian Jaramana suburb of Damascus (-)-/Syrian Interior Ministry Facebook Page/AFPMore

Syria's Islamist-led government promised Druze leaders Tuesday that it would try those responsible after its security forces clashed with Druze fighters in a Damascus suburb, leaving 14 combatants dead.

In a deal reached with representatives from the mainly Druze and Christian suburb of Jaramana, authorities also promised measures to "put an end to incitement to sectarian and regional division", according to a text seen by AFP.

"An agreement has been reached," said Rabih Mounzer, a member of a civilian coordination group in Jaramana who was among the delegates.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said seven security personnel and seven Druze fighters were killed in the clashes which erupted on Monday night and continued into Tuesday.

They were sparked by the circulation on social media of an audio recording deemed blasphemous and met with condemnation from leaders of the Druze religious minority.

The violence follows sectarian massacres last month in the Alawite coastal heartland -- the worst bloodshed since Islamist-led forces overthrew longtime president Bashar al-Assad in December.

While seeking to present a more moderate image to the world, the new authorities must also contend with pressures from radical Islamists within their ranks.

"Heavy clashes erupted in Jaramana after security forces and affiliated gunmen stormed" parts of the suburb, the Britain-based Observatory said.

The violence was spurred by "the circulation of an audio recording, attributed to a Druze citizen, containing religious insults", it added.

AFP was unable to confirm the recording's authenticity.

The interior ministry reported "intermittent clashes between groups of gunmen", saying security forces deployed "to break up the clashes and protect the residents".

The justice ministry said it would "not tolerate any attack on the Prophet" Mohammed but stressed that the courts were the "sole legitimate recourse" and called on residents to "refrain from hate speech".

- 'Full responsibility' -

An AFP correspondent saw gunmen shooting into the air during the funeral for two security force members killed in the clashes.

Jaramana's Druze religious leadership condemned "the unjustified armed attack" that "targeted innocent civilians and terrorised" residents.

"We strongly condemn any insult against" the Prophet Mohammed, the statement said, calling the audio recording an attempt to "sow strife and division".

It said the authorities bore "full responsibility for the incident".

Local residents said the fighting had subsided by morning.

Riham Waqqaf, a 33-year-old humanitarian worker, said she was staying home with her husband and children.

She expressed worry that Jaramana "might turn into a battlefield... I am afraid of the situation escalating further".

- Alawite massacres -

Security forces deployed in Jaramana last month following clashes between security forces and gunmen tasked with protecting the area.

At the time, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned the Islamist-led authorities not "to harm the Druze" minority, which is also spread across Lebanon and Israel.

Druze leaders rejected the Israeli warning and declared their loyalty to a united Syria.

The clashes in Jaramana mark the latest test for the Islamist authorities, who have roots in the Al-Qaeda jihadist network but have vowed inclusive rule in the multi-confessional, multi-ethnic country.

The authorities have been seeking to persuade Western capitals that the jihadist origins of the forces who toppled Assad are confined to the past, and that crippling international sanctions should be lifted.

Druze representatives have been negotiating with authorities on an agreement to integrate their armed groups into the new national army.

Last month's violence on the Mediterranean coast saw security forces and allied groups kill more than 1,700 civilians, mostly Alawites, according to the Observatory's figures.

The government of interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, whose Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led the offensive that toppled Assad, accused loyalists to the former leader of sparking the violence by attacking security forces, and has launched an inquiry.

burs-lar/nad/kir/ysm

More than a dozen killed in sectarian clashes near Syrian capital

Reuters
Tue, April 29, 2025

Syrian security forces check vehicles at the entrance of Druze town of Jaramana

University students gather in Jaramana after sectarian clashes

Syrian security forces check vehicles at the entrance of Druze town of Jaramana

More than a dozen killed in sectarian clashes near Syrian capital

Syrian security forces check vehicles at the entrance of Druze town of Jaramana

DAMASCUS (Reuters) -More than a dozen people were killed in a predominantly Druze town near the Syrian capital on Tuesday in clashes sparked by a purported recording of a Druze man cursing the Prophet Mohammad which angered Sunni gunmen, rescuers and security sources said.

The fighting marked the latest episode of deadly sectarian violence in Syria, where fears among minorities have been swelling since Islamist-led rebels ousted former leader Bashar al-Assad from power in December, installing their own government and security forces.

Those fears spiked after the killings of hundreds of Alawites in March in apparent revenge for an attack by Assad loyalists.

The clashes began overnight when gunmen from the nearby town of Maliha and other predominantly Sunni areas converged on the mostly Druze town of Jaramana, southeast of Damascus, security sources said.

The fighting, with small and medium arms fire, left 13 people dead, according to local rescue workers.

Among the dead were two members of Syria's General Security Service, a new security force comprised mostly of former rebels, according to interior ministry spokesperson Mustafa al-Abdo.

Abdo denied that armed gunmen had attacked the town, saying instead that groups of civilians angered by the voice recording had staged a protest that came under fire from Druze groups.

The Interior Ministry said in a statement it was investigating the origin of the voice recording and called for calm, urging citizens not to let emotions lead to violence or damage to public property.

Druze elders met with security forces in a bid to prevent further escalation, a Syrian security source said.

"What was said by a few individuals against our Prophet represents only them and is rejected by us and all of society," Druze religious leader Sheikh Yousef Jarbou said, calling on both communities to reject efforts to fuel sectarian divisions.

Representatives of the Syrian government and Druze community leaders in the town agreed later on Tuesday to hold those involved in the attack accountable, Syrian state news agency Sana reported. They also agreed to work on reducing sectarian and communal mobilization.

Syria's nearly 14-year war carved the country into various zones of influence, with the Druze - an Arab minority who practise a religion originally derived from Islam - arming themselves to defend their own towns.

The new Islamist-led leadership in Damascus has called for all arms to fall under their authority, but Druze fighters have resisted, saying Damascus has failed to guarantee their protection from hostile militants.

Community leaders blamed the government for failing to prevent Tuesday's attack and warned that it would bear responsibility for any future repercussions.

"The authorities are responsible for preserving security," Rabei Munzir, a local Druze activist in Jaramana, told Reuters.

Neighbouring Israel has said that it was willing to intervene in Syria to protect the Druze, thousands of whom also live in Israel and in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day war.

Hezbollah leader calls on government to work harder to end Israel's attacks on Lebanon

BASSEM MROUE
Mon, April 28, 2025

Civil defence workers and Lebanese soldiers gather at the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh in the southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Sunday, April 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

BEIRUT (AP) — The leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah group called on the government Monday to work harder to end Israel’s attacks in the country a day after an Israeli airstrike hit a suburb of Beirut.

Naim Kassem said in a televised speech that Hezbollah implemented the ceasefire deal that ended the 14-month Israel-Hezbollah war in late November. But despite that, Israel is continuing with near-daily airstrikes.

Kassem’s comments came as the Israeli military said it carried out more than 50 strikes in Lebanon this month saying they came after Hezbollah violated the U.S.-brokered ceasefire.

On Sunday, Israeli warplanes struck Beirut’s southern suburbs after issuing a warning about an hour earlier, marking the third Israeli strike on the area since a ceasefire took effect in late November. The Israeli military said it struck a precision-guided missiles facility.

“The resistance complied 100% with the (ceasefire) deal and I tell state officials that it's your duty to guarantee protection,” Kassem said, adding that Lebanese officials should contact sponsors of the ceasefire so that they pressure Israel to cease its attacks.

“Put pressure on America and make it understand that Lebanon cannot rise if the aggression doesn’t stop,” Kassem said, pointing to Lebanese officials. He added that the U.S. has interests in Lebanon and “stability achieves these interests.”

Kassem said the priority should be for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, an end to Israeli strikes in the country and the release of Lebanese held in Israel since the war that ended on Nov. 27.

Hezbollah began launching rockets, drones and missiles into Israel the day after the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel by its Hamas allies ignited the Israel-Hamas war. Palestinian militants killed about 1,200 people in Israel and abducted 251 others during the 2023 attack.

The Israel-Hezbollah conflict exploded into all-out war last September when Israel carried out waves of airstrikes and killed most of the militant group’s senior leaders. The fighting killed over 4,000 people.

The Lebanese government said earlier this month that 190 people have been killed and 485 injured in Lebanon by Israeli strikes since the ceasefire took effect.

Israel launches air strike on Beirut suburbs

Arion McNicoll,

The Week UK
Mon, April 28, 2025

Lebanese emergency teams cordon off the perimeter of a fire at the site of Israeli strikes in Beirut. | Credit: AFP / Getty Images

What happened

The Israeli military launched strikes on a Hezbollah stronghold in southern Beirut Sunday, targeting what it said was a store of "precision-guided missiles". The attack, which was preceded by an evacuation warning, was Israel's third on the Lebanese capital since a ceasefire took effect in late November.
Who said what

"Israel will not allow Hezbollah to grow stronger and pose any threat to it — anywhere in Lebanon," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a joint statement. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said Israel was undermining his country's stability and escalating tensions, posing "real dangers to the security" of the region.

The attack "raised concerns that the ceasefire that ended a war between Israel and Lebanese militants might be in jeopardy," The New York Times said. The U.S. has pushed Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, but Aoun has cautioned that the "delicate" issue must be handled carefully to maintain peace. Hezbollah has insisted it will not give up its weapons.

What next?

The Lebanese presidency urged the U.S. and France — the brokers of November's ceasefire — to pressure Israel to halt its attacks on Lebanon.

Will a weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon disarm?

ABBY SEWELL
Mon, April 28, 2025

FILE - Fighters from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah train in southern Lebanon, May 21, 2023. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)ASSOCIATED PRESS

FILE - An Israeli soldier from an EOD (explosive ordnance disposal) poses with a weapon used by Hezbollah seized during combat operations in Lebanon displayed during a government-organized media tour on a base in southern Israel, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Maya Alleruzzo, File)ASSOCIATED PRESS

FILE - A trailer carrying the coffins containing the bodies of Hezbollah's former leader Hassan Nasrallah and his cousin and successor Hashem Safieddine drives through the crowd as it enters the Sports City Stadium during a funeral procession in Beirut, Lebanon, Feb. 23, 2025. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)ASSOCIATED PRESS

FILE - Flames rise from a metal tent that was hit by an Israeli airstrike on Dahiyeh in the southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, April 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)ASSOCIATED PRESS

FILE - Weapons and other equipment said to belong to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and seized by the Israeli military in its ground invasion of southern Lebanon are displayed at Northern Israel military base, Dec. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg, File)ASSOCIATED PRESS

FILE - Hezbollah fighters attend the funeral procession of their two comrades who were killed by Israeli shelling, in Kherbet Selem village, south Lebanon, Oct. 10, 2023. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)ASSOCIATED PRESS

FILE - Flames and smoke rise from an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, on Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein, File)ASSOCIATED PRESS

BEIRUT (AP) — Israel's latest airstrike on what it called a Hezbollah missile storage facility in Beirut's southern suburbs came during increasing pressure for the Lebanese militant group to disarm.

The disarmament of what has been the region's most powerful non-state armed group has come to look increasingly inevitable. Hezbollah is severely weakened after a war with Israel in which much of its top leadership was killed, and after losing a key ally with the fall of former Syrian President Bashar Assad, a conduit for Iran to send arms.

Israel and the U.S. are pushing for swift disarmament, but when and how it will happen - if it does - is contested.

Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun has said he is committed to bringing all arms in the country under state control, but that it will happen through discussions around a national security plan and not through force.

Many fear that an attempt to force the issue would lead to civil conflict, which Aoun has called a “red line.”

Hezbollah officials have said in principle that they are willing to discuss the group's arsenal, but leader Naim Qassem said in a speech earlier this month that any serious discussions are contingent on Israel withdrawing its forces from territory they occupy in southern Lebanon and halting near-daily airstrikes.

“The Lebanese have to strike a delicate balance” on disarmament, said Aram Nerguizian, a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Go too slow ... and you will lose internal momentum and international legitimacy. Go too fast and you get accused by a still-hurting and battered Shia community" — who make up most of Hezbollah's constituency — "of acting as a proxy for Israel, while risking Hezbollah remnants ... waging an insurgency against the Lebanese government.”

What would disarmament look like?

After Lebanon’s 15-year civil war ended in 1990, the country went through a process of disarming most of the militias that had taken part. Hezbollah was the exception, given special status as a “resistance force” fighting against Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon at the time.

Aoun has outlined his vision of a similar disarmament process. Former Hezbollah fighters could apply to join the Lebanese army as individuals, the president said. Weapons deemed "usable” by the army would become part of its arsenal, while those deemed “unusable” would be destroyed.

What remains, he said, would not be compatible with the Lebanese army's arsenal, which is largely Western-supplied, while Hezbollah uses Iranian, Russian and Chinese-made weapons.

Nerguizian said it is unlikely that large numbers of Hezbollah's tens of thousands of fighters would be incorporated into the army because their ideology has not been compatible as a paramilitary force that has largely been “tied to the preferences of Iran."

Retired Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni agreed that much of Hezbollah's arsenal would not be easily integrated but said the post-civil war era provides a precedent for integrating fighters.

After going through training, “they become like any other soldier,” he said. While there might be a “religious and ideological obstacle" for some Hezbollah fighters, "I do not think this is the case for everyone.”

Ibrahim Mousawi, a member of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc, told The Associated Press that “everything is open for discussion."

“We don’t want to jump into discussing the details,” he said. "This is something that is being left in the hands of the president and the Hezbollah leadership to deal with.”

Mousawi said the destruction of Hezbollah’s arsenal “shouldn’t be acceptable to Lebanon.”

The cash-strapped Lebanese army has struggled to maintain its aging arsenal. In recent years, it has turned to the U.S. and Qatar to help pay soldiers' salaries.

“We are part of the Lebanese strength," Mousawi said. ”If the Americans are really keen to show us that they really respect Lebanon and they care for the Lebanese, ... why don’t they equip the Lebanese army with defensive weapons?”

When might disarming occur?

U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus said earlier this month in an interview broadcast on Lebanese channel LBCI that Hezbollah should be disarmed “as soon as possible."

A Lebanese diplomat said there is ongoing pressure from the Americans on that front. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

Hezbollah’s stance that it will not discuss giving up its armed wing before Israel withdraws from five key border points in southern Lebanon appears likely to drag out the process. Israeli officials have said that they plan to remain there indefinitely to secure their border and guard against any ceasefire violations by Hezbollah.

Israeli officials did not respond to a request for comment on the issue of Lebanon's army integrating former Hezbollah weapons and fighters.

Lebanese officials say that the Israeli presence violates the ceasefire agreement in November, under which Israel and Hezbollah were supposed to withdraw their forces from southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese army taking control alongside U.N. peacekeepers.

The Lebanese diplomat said that U.S. officials had acknowledged that Israeli forces remaining in the five border points constituted an “occupation” but had not put strong pressure on Israel to withdraw quickly.

A “smart way to break the deadlock” and avoid further escalation is for Washington to increase its support for the Lebanese army and push Israel to withdraw, said Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official and senior managing director of the Washington-based TRENDS US consulting firm.

Retired Lebanese army Gen. Elias Hanna said he believes that Hezbollah is "still in the phase of denial” regarding the diminution of its military and political clout.

He said disarmament needs to take place as part of broader discussions about Lebanon's military doctrine and strategy. The Lebanese army could benefit from the experience of Hezbollah, which for many years maintained deterrence with Israel before the latest war, he said.

Saab said he believes the outcome is not in doubt.

“Hezbollah has a choice,” he said. “Either lay down its arms or have them removed by Israeli force.”

Analysis: Disarming Hezbollah, Palestinian factions -– Lebanon's chance to reclaim sovereignty

Dalal Saoud
Mon, April 28, 2025
UPI

Smoke and fire rise after an Israeli airstrike targeting Hezbollah weapons in Dahieh, southern Beirut, Lebanon, on Sunday. The attack destroyed a hangar and damaged nearby buildings and vehicles, according to Lebanese state media. Photo by Wael Hamzeh/EPA-EFEMore

BEIRUT, Lebanon, April 28 (UPI) -- Lebanon, shattered by five decades of lawlessness, military occupation and the dominance of armed non-state actors, now has a chance to reclaim its long-lost sovereignty -- if it can overcome the final hurdles: disarming Hezbollah and the Palestinian armed factions.

However, the country's new leaders must walk a tightrope to accomplish a long-awaited mission -- one that seemed inconceivable just months ago.

The once-powerful Hezbollah has been significantly weakened by Israel, which has assassinated many of its top leaders and military commanders, destroyed much of its arsenal, and forced the group to retreat from the embattled southern region during a recent destructive war.

Its patron, Iran, also has seen a sharp decline in influence, losing much of its strength, its "axis of resistance" and its dominant regional role.

The Palestinian armed factions, including Hamas, are in no better position. The Gaza war has left them in disarray, with the Strip reduced to rubble and barely livable -- pushing the issue of armed struggle against Israel back to the forefront, but under drastically changed conditions.

Their military presence in Lebanon was called into question years ago, but now, more than ever, following Hezbollah's weakening and Israel's massive destruction of south Lebanon and other areas, it can no longer be justified or tolerated.

The dramatic regional shifts and mounting international pressure have made it clear that the time has come for these groups to relinquish their weapons, whether voluntarily or by force. Yet, despite Israel's continued use of overwhelming military power against Hezbollah and Hamas, it has failed to eliminate either.

Hezbollah remains well-armed and retains significant military capabilities, while Hamas continues to fight in Gaza and still holds the remaining Israeli captives. But both are stuck with limited options.

Aware of the challenges and risks of forcing the disarmament of Hezbollah, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, the country's former Army commander, opted for engaging the militant group in a one-to-one dialogue.

Aoun has remained firm since he was elected to the country's top post in January on his pledge to disarm all militias and impose the state monopoly on weapons.

However, stripping Hezbollah of its arms by force is "out of question" for the president because it could lead to "a civil war, confrontation between the Army and the group or among the Lebanese," according to a Lebanese official source.

Hezbollah's positions and military facilities south of the Litani River in south Lebanon already are being taken by the Lebanese Army and its weapons confiscated in line with the Nov. 27 cease-fire agreement that was brokered by the United States and France to end the war with Israel.

"Instructions to the Lebanese army are clear and Hezbollah is responding. There will be no weapons except those of the army," the source told UPI. "That's final."

In some cases, residents in the south have tipped off the Army about Hezbollah's well-concealed positions. Recently, soldiers discovered a Hezbollah-operated hospital hidden inside a mountain.

However, the issue of Hezbollah's bases north of the Litani River, where it reportedly stockpiles its long-range missiles, is more complicated.

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While the cease-fire agreement stipulates that Hezbollah must be fully disarmed, the Iran-backed group has argued that the provision applies only to south Lebanon.

Recently, Hezbollah has begun signaling a willingness to discuss its weapons on the condition that Israel halts its attacks and withdraws from five strategic hilltop positions it retained after pulling out of south Lebanon following the extension of the cease-fire deadline to Feb. 18.

Hezbollah's weapons outside the south Litani area "need a very quiet diplomacy," said the Lebanese official source, noting that Aoun-Hezbollah dialogue hasn't started yet, and the current efforts were limited to indirect contacts between the two sides.

"We are still in a preliminary phase, with no action plan or mechanism yet in place," he said, noting that the main obstacle is Israel's continued occupation of the five positions, which also prevents the Army's full deployment, and its reluctance to also discuss 13 disputed border points.

"To be honest, how can you expect to talk to Hezbollah about disarmament while Israel continues to bombard villages, strike its positions and assassinate its field commanders on a daily basis?" the source said, asking whether Israel was not bowing to U.S. pressure to withdraw or whether Washington's pressures are very limited.

He denied that the United States has set a deadline for Lebanon to fully disarm Hezbollah, but added, "That does not mean they will wait for us forever."

Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, said Aoun does have a strong argument about the risks associated with the forced disarmament of Hezbollah.

"It could potentially lead to a civil war due to the religious factional composition of the country, as well as the armed forces," Kahwaji told UPI, noting that Hezbollah does enjoy wide support among a good portion of the Shiite community in Lebanon and is still regarded as very well armed despite its losses during the war with Israel.

"The Lebanese Army can engage them [Hezbollah fighters] and could probably succeed in disarming them, but this would be at a potential heavy cost. ... There will be certainly heavy bloodshed," Kahwaji told UPI.

The risk of Hezbollah retaining its weapons or retaliating against Israel's ongoing attacks could very likely provide Israel with a pretext to resume the war -- a scenario Hezbollah may not be able to withstand and one its popular base is unlikely to tolerate.

According to Kahwaji, the group's strategy of playing for time, in the hope that developments in Syria might reopen its supply routes from Iran and allow it to rebuild, is "illusional at this stage."

But what should be done with Hezbollah if and when it is disarmed?

One proposal, suggested by Aoun, is to integrate its fighters individually into the Lebanese Army -- much like former militias were absorbed after Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war -- rather than incorporating them as a distinct unit, as Iraq did with its Popular Mobilization Units.

However, many military experts warn that this approach carries significant risks and could prove highly destabilizing.

Kahwaji explained that while Hezbollah may desire its fighters to be absorbed into the armed forces, the group most likely would want to maintain cohesion and preserve its independent leadership.

"Integrating a group that serves a religious ideology, takes orders from its own commanders and ultimately answers to Iran into a secular institution sensitive to the country's religious and sectarian composition will be extremely difficult and highly dangerous," he said.

Such a move would complicate Lebanon's normalization with Syria's new leadership that was born out of Sunni Islamic groups and most likely would be rejected by the United States., western powers and Arab Gulf countries that provide aid to the war-ravaged country.

Is it the end of the anti-Israel armed struggle? Would it be possible without a just solution to the Palestinian issue?

Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, argued that Hezbollah will realize that it is "outside the Middle East military equation," especially since the United States and Iran "appear readying themselves for a historic agreement."

"Hezbollah is no longer in a position to challenge Israel. It has become a sitting duck that does not answer Israeli daily air raids and assassinations," Khashan told UPI.

The Lebanon-based Palestinian armed factions, he said, also have no choice but to lay down their arms and allow the Lebanese authorities to assume full control over 12 refugee camps in various Lebanese regions.

"Armed struggle is a thing of the past. If Hamas cannot hold its ground in Gaza, we should not expect it to hold on in Lebanon," he added.

___

Rainfall triggers extreme humid heat in tropics and subtropics

University of Leeds

Scientists believe they have found a way to improve warning systems for vulnerable communities threatened by humid heatwaves, which are on the rise due to climate change and can be damaging and even fatal to human health.

The team, from the University of Leeds and the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology has provided the first ever analysis of how patterns of recent rainfall can interact with dry or moist land conditions to influence the risk of extreme humid heat in the global tropics and subtropics.

The study, which is published today in the journal Nature Communications, offers new insight which could lead to the development of early warning systems for vulnerable communities in those regions.

Climate change means humid heatwaves are a growing risk to human and animal health, especially in tropical regions. While there is established research into dry heatwaves, there is little understanding of the meteorological drivers of extreme humid heat.

Humid heat is related to heat stress, occurring when environmental conditions overwhelm the body’s ability to cool itself. Severe heat stress leads to an increase in the core body temperature of 3°C or more and can cause confusion, seizures, and loss of consciousness. If not treated promptly, severe heat stress can lead to muscle damage, major organ failure, and death.

Humid heatwaves are particularly concerning for humans because a wet-bulb temperature (a measure of temperature that accounts for how much cooling can occur through evaporation under ideal conditions) of 35°C means they are unable to shed heat effectively through sweating. Several subtropical coastal locations have already experienced this 35°C threshold.

Lead author of the study Dr Lawrence Jackson, a Research Fellow in the School of Earth and Environment, said: “With climate change driving more frequent and intense humid heat events, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions, the risks to vulnerable populations and outdoor workers are increasing.

“The new understanding provided by our research highlights the potential for improved humid heat early warning systems, using near real-time satellite observations for soil moisture and rainfall.”

The team studied humid heatwaves across the tropics and subtropics using weather and climate data from 2001 to 2022.

The researchers identified heatwave events and looked at how they were influenced by recent rainfall, using satellite observations to distinguish between wetter and drier days. They then calculated how likely a heatwave was to occur after these different rainfall conditions.

Humid heatwaves are widespread across the global tropics and subtropics. They occur in monsoon regions such as West Africa, India, East China, and north Australia, in humid regions such as the Amazon, southeast US, and the Congo basin, and in hot coastal regions in the Middle East.

The new study reveals that recent rainfall patterns play a critical role in triggering humid heatwaves in tropical and subtropical regions, with the results showing that the risk of humid heatwaves depends on whether the surface environment is drier or wetter.

In drier regions, humid heatwaves are more likely during or just after periods of enhanced rainfall. In wetter regions, humid heatwaves tend to follow at least two days of suppressed rainfall.

This difference arises because rainfall increases moisture in soils making conditions more humid. By contrast, less rainfall and fewer clouds allow the land to warm, thereby increasing temperatures.

Cathryn Birch, Professor in Meteorology and Climate in the School of Earth and Environment, led the study. She explained: “The outlook for tropical humid heat is really concerning. Humans avoid overheating by sweating. Evaporation of the sweat cools your body, allowing you to maintain a safe body temperature. Humidity makes this less effective.

“Humid heatwaves can be lethal at air temperatures that for dry heat would be relatively safe. The tropics are naturally humid and even an apparently small increase in global temperatures leads to large increases in dangerous humid heat extremes. We not only need to urgently cut greenhouse gas emissions but also need improved early warning systems for humid heat.

Co-author John Marsham, a Professor of Atmospheric Science in the School of Earth and Environment, added: “Our results focus on the daily timescale for these heatwaves. An obvious next step would be to extend our analysis to hourly time scales which might allow us to work towards near real-time predictions with all the benefits that would bring to vulnerable communities.”

Ends

Further information:

For media enquiries, please contact the University of Leeds press office via pressoffice@leeds.ac.uk.

‘Daily rainfall variability controls humid heatwaves in the global tropics and subtropics ' published 29 April 2025 Nature Communications (DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58694-6). Once published the paper will be available: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-58694-6