Saturday, December 27, 2025

California Sea Otters Face New Threats As An Ecosystem Shifts – Analysis

A raft of sea otters (Enhydra nereis) congregates off the back deck of the Monterey Bay Aquarium in kelp. CREDIT: Monterey Bay Aquarium / Tyson V. Rininger

December 27, 2025 
 Mongabay
By Christine Heinrichs

The sea otter pup was tiny, probably less than 2 weeks old, alone in Morro Bay on an October morning earlier this year. A kayaker scooped it out of the water after listening to it endlessly crying for its mother. It was in growing danger, starting to float out toward the mouth of the bay. Back onshore, the rescuer wrapped the pup in a cloth, nestled it in a box and called the Marine Mammal Center to report it.

A 10-person rescue team arrived, led by Shayla Zink, the center’s operations coordinator. They hoped to reunite this young pup with its mother: Raising a southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) pup is a long, difficult process.

The team quickly unwrapped the pup, as otter pups are at risk of over-heating. Morro Bay is cold, generally 15-18°C (59-64°F), so the team brought ice along in case they needed to cool the animal down.

“We kept a close eye on its temperature,” Zink said. “Pups may not have good thermoregulation. We could have dunked it to cool it down.”

They put the pup in an animal carrier and boarded a Harbor Patrol boat to begin their search. Along the way, Zink recorded the pup’s cries and then played the audio through a Bluetooth speaker. If its mother was nearby, she’d come looking for her baby. “The vocalization between each mother and pup is unique,” Zink said.

But the tape was also a way to let the baby rest. Orphaned or abandoned pups are super delicate, and crying uses up valuable energy, Zink said. “In these situations we don’t want to stress the pup.”

They worked their way around the bay. Occasionally an otter looked interested, but none was serious. “We were looking for typical signs; an otter frantic, vocalizing, approaching the boat,” Zink said.

After about two hours, they’d offered the pup’s cries to just about every otter in the bay. As the boat rounded a corner into the marina, an otter looked up and followed the vessel.

She approached the boat repeatedly, looking upset, but didn’t vocalize. She then followed them as they motored back into the cove. Zink took the pup out of the carrier, held it out to the prospective mother and placed the pup in the water. The female dove. Within seconds, she reemerged beside the pup, rolled over, placed it on her belly and began grooming it. She swam away with her baby clutched to her.

The team followed them for about an hour. The mother settled toward the mouth of the bay, where a raft of otters typically hangs out in the kelp, and then they left her to it. They named the pup Caterpillar.

This was a rare successful reunification for sea otters. “It was a huge win for the otters, for the population as well as the individuals,” Zink said. “They are a threatened species. Anything we can do to help the individual helps.”

All three otter subspecies are classified as endangered on the IUCN Red List. Perhaps 3,000 southern sea otters remain, and only 60% of otter pups survive until they’re weaned at six months. The otters are at risk from shark attacks, ecosystem changes that shift prey species, oil spills — and human disturbance.

A threatened species

Southern sea otters — also known as California sea otters — are among the smallest marine mammals and no one knows exactly how many remain.

Sea otters once flourished along the entire Pacific coast. When European hunters arrived in the 17thcentury, they found abundant populations — between 150,000 and 300,000 — from Oregon to Baja California. They hunted the otters for their lush fur, which has as many as a million hairs per square inch.

Populations were decimated. Only a few thousand otters remained, surviving in small pockets by the time hunting was outlawed in 1911.

The small population struggled along, and southern sea otters were listed as threatened in 1977 under the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 and then protected under the U.S. Endangered Species Act the next year. They remain vulnerable to environmental pollution and disruption.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service adopted an otter recovery plan in 1982, which it updated in 2003. The population has hovered around 3,000 for the last decade, but reliable numbers are difficult to pin down. An updated census is due soon. Southern sea otters could be delisted if the average population exceeds 3,090 otters.

But some aspects of recovery are difficult, particularly rehabilitating injured sea otters, which requires specialized housing and care. The Monterey Bay Aquarium’s otter program began in 1981, three years before the aquarium opened, with the only veterinarian with any knowledge of otter care on staff. Raising orphaned pups is a delicate process, involving so many issues that the aquarium began using surrogate otter mothers to nurture abandoned pups.

Initially, rehabilitated pups couldn’t be safely released back into the sea. Instead, they served to educate the staff and the public on exhibit. With the success of the surrogacy program, otter pups now are returned to the wild population. Rehabilitated pups now account for 55% of the otters in Elkhorn Slough, a coastal wetland area in Monterey Bay where the pups are released.

Otter range and population

Otters now inhabit about 13% of their original territory, living along the central California coastline from San Mateo county to Santa Barbara county and in the waters surrounding San Nicolas Island in Ventura county. Expanding their range could be the next step toward increasing the population.

However, southern sea otters have steadily declined from 2016’s high of 3,272 to 2,962 in 2019.

The most recent estimates relied on a three-year average, but that produced a minimum count — not a true estimate. Yearly surveys require consistent methods from year to year to produce reliable numbers, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) biologist Joe Tomoleoni wrote in an email.

Due to a series of unfortunate events, the USGS hasn’t produced a new assessment in six years. During the COVID-19 pandemic, staff couldn’t share an enclosed cockpit for aerial surveys; then the plane was no longer available and mudslides in Big Sur made the beach inaccessible. As of publication, 2024 numbers haven’t been released.

USGS is now building a statistical model that can be used going forward, developed with ecologists using numbers from recent partial surveys and data from as far back as the 1980s.

Mike Harris, a sea otter biologist with the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), said that despite the dearth of data, “We aren’t flying blind here. We are still keeping a pretty good watch on what’s going on.” He noted that they are “recovering every stranded otter and monitoring sources of mortality.”

A changing ecosystem

Now, climate change is altering sea otters’ marine habitat. In 2013, Pacific Ocean waters warmed dramatically, beginning a three-year marine heat wave dubbed “the Blob” that decimated much of Northern California’s kelp forests. That same year, sea star wasting disease began killing off the large, many-armed sunflower sea stars (Pycnopodia helianthoides) — the pathogen aided by tepid temperatures in what is normally a chilly ocean.

Sea stars died en masse. Their collapse allowed purple sea urchins to take over, and they subsequently consumed the northern coast’s kelp forests.

The southern sea otter is a keystone species that keeps habitat healthy by eating purple sea urchins, but there was no way they could control this onslaught. Researchers estimated that the urchin population grew by 10,000% in Northern California since 2014. The otters did, however, protect patches along the Central Coast by consuming urchins at the edges of kelp forests — which are critical habitat for more than 1,000 species of fish, mammals and invertebrates.

As the ecosystem changed, southern sea otters have adapted their diet. A study led by Monterey Bay Aquarium biologists showed a ripple effect in coastal ecosystems: The collapse of one marine predator has often benefitted another. Their findings were published in the journal Science Advances.

“We were really interested in understanding the role of sea otters in this whole landscape of ecosystem change,” said Joshua Smith, the study’s lead author and an assistant professor at University of California Santa Cruz. “Otters are really important in protecting remnant kelp patches, by choosing [to eat] these healthy urchins, but in ‘urchin barrens’ they tend to forage on mussels, snails and crabs.”

Smith views the kelp forest ecosystem as “still very much in transition.” He and his team are pursuing research on the role sea otters play in kelp forest recovery. Some small patches of kelp have reappeared in Monterey Bay and Carmel Bay. The researchers wonder: As kelp grows, will the urchins devour it? Or will the otters keep the urchins in balance, helping the ecosystem to recover?

“For these incipient forests — that are showing signs of recovery — to persist, sea otter foraging is a big deal,” Smith said. “As those remaining urchins in the kelp forest become healthier … those patches become more attractive to foraging sea otters, because now they are worth their time. They continue to reduce the number of urchins so that you get not only recovery, but persistence.”

Smith and his team are currently analyzing two years of data for a paper that will be submitted for publication soon.

Otters gained another food source with the massive sea star die-off, which opened an ecological niche for California mussels. They became a sea otter banquet, helping otter populations to increase along the Monterey Peninsula for a time.

Meanwhile, the European green crab (Carcinus maenas), considered one of the most invasive marine species, is destroying seagrass beds along the eastern Pacific coast and devouring small prey that are important to migratory shorebirds. Otters are eating these crabs.

“We’re grateful for this native predator to be controlling a non-native prey item,” Kerstin Wasson wrote in an email. She serves as research coordinator at Elkhorn Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve, an area hard-hit by green crabs.

However, some experts, including Keith Rootsaert, who founded the Giant Kelp Restoration Project, fear that otter populations in Monterey Bay and Carmel are collapsing in tandem with kelp forests that have now shrunk to just 4% and 6.3%, respectively, of baseline.

His observations from regular dives in Monterey Bay indicate that most of what remain are sponges and mussel shells that litter the sandy bottom, detritus from sea otter foraging. Though it hasn’t been confirmed by the long-overdue survey, he suspects that “the otter population there may have dropped from 250 to as low as 28,” numbers he shared with USGS biologist Tomoleoni.

“We are very concerned that the sea otter population is dying off and the continued narrative that there are 3,000 individuals is no longer valid,” he wrote.
A unique physiology

Even in the best of circumstances, sea otters’ biology makes survival challenging. Instead of blubber to keep them warm like other marine mammals, they have dense fur and an extremely high-burning metabolism. To stoke that furnace, they must consume the equivalent of 20-30% of their body weight each day. And in order to conserve energy, uninterrupted rest is crucial.

That makes human disturbance a serious threat. But sea otters, iconically cute animals, are a major tourist attraction in Morro Bay, Monterey Bay, Elkhorn Slough and other locations along California’s coast. The allure of seeing, photographing or kayaking up to an otter is strong, the experience almost magical. But these interactions disrupt the otters’ already precarious lives.

While disturbance isn’t good for male otters, it’s tougher on females, which are pregnant or nursing most of their adult lives. When otters are nursing, their resting metabolic rate soars by more than 50%.

Some sea otter mothers literally starve to death caring for their pups. So-called end lactation syndromeoccurs over the five-to-six months that pups are nursing. It’s characterized by severe, sometimes fatal, weight loss. As a mother gets progressively thinner, her immunity wanes and she’s more prone to disease. Some mothers abandon their pups for their own survival; others die, their bodies washed up on the shore, thin and wasted.

“When a sea otter is forced to interrupt resting or foraging due to an eager human wanting to observe too close, it must expend additional energy to relocate,” said Heather Barrett, who heads communications at the nonprofit Sea Otter Savvy (SOS).

An animal that is disturbed from its routine loses valuable foraging time. For mother otters, any disturbance cuts into her thin margin of survival. No single disturbance kills an otter mother, but the cumulative effect of frequent interruptions, every day, takes a toll.

SOS was created in 2015 by experts from Monterey Bay Aquarium, CDFW, Friends of the Sea Otter and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Its goal is to minimize disturbance — anything that makes the otter alter its activity and swim off, dive or hide. They’ve created guidelines for healthy viewing distances: 30 meters (100 feet) is generally safe, 18 m (60 ft) is probably okay, and 15 m (50 ft) is too close. SOS also certifies local businesses, such as kayak rentals.

Shark attacks

The worst threat state biologist Harris has observed is a sharp increase in shark attacks. “Shark bites remain the most significant impact on otter population recovery,” he said. “Otters are taken out of the population. No mitigation is possible.”

During a recent otter necropsy, he noted that its fur generally appeared unruffled, but torn skin showed evidence of a shark bite and the animal was riddled with infection. This otter was doomed as soon as the shark’s teeth bit into her.

In a peer-reviewed study published in Marine Mammal Science, Harris and his colleagues examined 1,870 dead otters from 1985 to 2015. They reported that more than half were killed by shark bites — and incidents have increased sharply since the Blob. Today, waters are generally warmer in what has become a new normal. These tepid waters have expanded shark season beyond summer and fall when most shark bites occurred.

Juvenile white sharks, less than 2.5 m (8 ft) long, need waters between 15.1°C and 22°C (59°F and 71°F): Great white sharks are endothermic, maintaining their own internal body temperature, but juveniles may struggle to thermoregulate in chilly water. They stay where it’s warmer.

When ocean temperatures soared to record highs, 6.2°C (7°F) above historic temperatures in 2014, the cold water edge that kept sharks south of Point Conception moved north. This land mass marks a marine biogeographic boundary, separating the warmer waters of the Southern California bight from the cooler California Current Ecosystem.

Juvenile sharks now live in Monterey Bay, and with that change, otters began washing up dead on the shoreline.

“The emergence of juvenile white sharks in Monterey Bay was unexpected, sudden and outpaced established scientific monitoring programs,” Harris and colleagues reported in a study published in the journal Marine Mammal Science.

However, Harris noted that “In the Monterey Bay area, as the presence of juvenile white sharks suddenly increased after the heat wave, the number of otters in the same area dropped significantly.”

Since it’s impossible to change shark behavior, biologists are trying to mitigate other threats. “It often falls to factors surrounding pathogens, pollution and human-caused disturbance, areas where we can make some changes to help sea otters,” Harris said.

Otters power forward

Sea otters have a strong human community working to support them. The 2024 census will quantify the effects on their population from the Blob’s disastrous ecosystem impacts, continuing marine heat waves, sharks moving in and the disturbance of visitors who over-love them.

Sea otters remain a coastline icon, fighting to survive within the slim margins of their demanding physiology in an ecosystem under pressure. Meanwhile, they continue to adapt to the changes in their habitat.

Saving the habitat is the make-or-break for the species.

“There are some aspects of a bright future,” Harris said. “There are strong collaborations and innovative ideas on how to expand populations and how to pay for it. A lot of players are coming to the table, finding creative ways to address sea otter conservation goals in the not-too-distant future.”

Scientists are determined to better understand otter physiology and range, collecting data to inform conservation decisions. Nonprofits are leading public education at the interface between humans and otters. This human team is trying to conserve otters for the public that loves them and ecosystems that need them, working against the backdrop of environmental change and ecological challenge.

The otters soldier on.

Chritine Heinrichs has written about California coastal issues for more than a decade. She is currently at work on a book about northern elephant seals.Source: This article was published by Mongabay

Citations:

Smith, J. et al. (2025) Keystone interdependence: Sea otter responses to a prey surplus following the collapse of a rocky intertidal predator. Science Advances 11, Issue 18. doi:10.1126/sciadv.adu1028

Thometz, N. M., Tinker, M. T., Staedler, M. M., Mayer, K. A., & Williams, T. M. (2014). Energetic demands of immature sea otters from birth to weaning: Implications for maternal costs, reproductive behavior and population-level trends. Journal of Experimental Biology, 217(12), 2053-2061. doi:10.1242/jeb.099739

Tinker, M. T., Hatfield, B. B., Harris, M. D. and Ames, J. A., (2016), Dramatic increase in sea otter mortality from white sharks in California. Marine Mammal Science, 32, 1, 309-326, doi:10.1111/mms.12261

Chinn, S. M., Miller, M.A., et al. 2016, The high cost of motherhood: end-lactation syndrome in southern sea otters (Enhydta luttris nereis) on the California coast, USA. Journal of Wildlife Diseases, 52 (2): 307–318. doi:10.7589/2015-06-158



Mongabay
Mongabay is a U.S.-based non-profit conservation and environmental science news platform. Rhett A. Butler founded Mongabay.com in 1999 out of his passion for tropical forests. He called the site Mongabay after an island in Madagascar.




Wildlife Trafficking Thrives Online




By 


On a recent Wednesday at a pet crematory on the outskirts of Johannesburg, South African authorities destroyed nearly a metric ton of lion bones.

The destruction of the confiscated remains was part of South Africa’s effort to end the captive breeding of lions and the trafficking of their bones to be used in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM).

South Africa effectively banned the export of lion bones this year by setting the export quota for them at zero. South Africa has an estimated 12,000 lions raised on farms to be hunted compared to a wild population of about 3,000. Lions killed during the hunts are butchered and their parts trafficked, often in place of tiger bones used in TCM formulations.

South Africa has long been a hub for the illicit trade in lion bones, rhino horn, elephant ivory, and other animal parts and products, many of them shipped to Asian markets for use in TCM.

The South African government banned the export of lion bones in 2019 and announced in 2024 that it was shutting down the country’s lion farms, citing the unsanitary conditions in which most animals live. However, no firm deadline was set for farms to close. Authorities said at the time that trophy hunts would continue for an undetermined period.


In a new report, researchers with the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) worked with wildlife monitoring organizations around the world to examine ways in which the illicit wildlife trade moves animals and animal parts around the globe, with much of that traffic centered on China.

The study covered the period from April 2024 to August 2025 and included three African countries: Cameroon, Nigeria and South Africa.

Much of the illicit wildlife trade is happening in plain sight online with Facebook carrying most of the advertising that promotes live animals (typically birds) and parts (typically from mammals).

The GI-TOC study found that Facebook accounted for nearly 84% of more than 13,200 advertisements reviewed worldwide. That was down from 95% a few years ago. Two-thirds of those advertisements promoted animal parts, 84% of which were from animals protected under the United Nations Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES).

“This highlights the continuing centrality of Facebook in monitoring efforts and enforcement of regulatory interventions,” GI-TOC researchers wrote.

In some cases, advertisers use coded emojis to secretly identify the wildlife products they are offering.

GI-TOC researchers recommend that Facebook and other social media or e-commerce sites tighten their own rules for advertising wildlife products by requiring documentation that shows that the products are exempt from trade bans.

In August, South Africa indicted six people on charges of trafficking nearly 1,000 rhino horns to Asian markets using falsified documents. Authorities said the traffickers claimed to be selling the horns domestically when they actually were shipping them abroad.

Illicit wildlife traffic frequently involves transnational criminal organizations. Escalating profits at each step of the trafficking process makes the activity attractive to those involved. The study uses the case of North Korea, which sells TCM products with miniscule amounts of rhino horn in order to evade international sanctions and generate hard currency income.

GI-TOC researchers note that North Korea has used illegal wildlife trafficking to generate income for many years. A United Nations investigation suggests that North Korean diplomats are at the center of smuggling rhino horn and other illicit wildlife materials. One diplomat is accused of attempting to traffic $65 million in rhino horn to China via Mozambique.

Rhino horn bought from traffickers is sold as Angong Niuhuang Wan (ANW) with a markup 30 to 40 times the value of the horn that went into it.

A single illicit kilogram of trafficked rhino horn bought for $22,300 in Vietnam ultimately can bring the country up to $830,000 in revenue in Chinese and other Asian markets.

“This makes ANW highly profitable for traffickers and strengthens the incentive to continue sourcing rhino horn,” GI-TOC researchers wrote. “North Korea’s role in rhino horn trafficking elevates the situation from a conservation challenge to an international security concern.”

Europe’s ‘Destructive Moral Ideas’ Could Jeopardize Nuclear Powers, JD Vance Says

December 27, 2025
 EurActiv
By Magnus Lund Nielsen

(EurActiv) — Vice-President JD Vance warned on Friday that France and the United Kingdom could pose a future security risk to the US if what he called “Islamist-adjacent” ideas were to gain political influence.

Speaking in an interview with UK-based online outlet UnHerd, Vance argued that the backlash over immigration has left Europe without “a very good sense of itself”.

There are “Islamist-aligned or Islamist-adjacent people who hold office in European countries right now,” he added, without specifying who exactly he referred to.

For this reason, it is “absolutely” possible to see Islamist-adjacent views rise to power in a European nuclear power, like Paris or London, in 15 years.

Vance said the issue was of direct concern to Washington because France and the UK are nuclear powers. “If they allow themselves to be overwhelmed with very destructive moral ideas, then you allow nuclear weapons to fall in the hands of people who can actually cause very, very serious harm to the US.”

Washington will have “to have certain moral conversations with Europe”.

Vance, notably, did not mention Pakistan, another nuclear power and a majority-Muslim country, with which the US enjoys some bilateral relations.

Earlier this month, the US Trump administration released its new security strategy, painting a dire picture of Europe’s political and economic trajectory.

The document emphasised a US ambition to restore “European greatness” to a continent Washington said is facing economic decline and the “stark prospect of civilisational erasure”, sparking wide pushback from European capitals.



Cambodia and Thailand agree ceasefire, return of Cambodian troops

Cambodia and Thailand agree ceasefire, return of Cambodian troops
Government officials from both countries agree to a ceasefire / Ministry of National Defence - Cambodia
By bno - Ho Chi Minh Office December 27, 2025

Cambodia and Thailand have agreed to an immediate ceasefire following weeks of deadly clashes along their shared border, raising hopes of a gradual easing of tensions and the return of displaced civilians, KIRIPOST reports.

The agreement was reached early on December 27 during a special meeting of the General Border Committee, bringing together senior military and defence officials from both sides. Under the 16-point arrangement, hostilities were to stop from midday local time, with the release of 18 Cambodian soldiers expected after 72 hours, provided the truce holds. The soldiers have been detained since fighting first flared in July.

While both governments committed to halting military operations, existing troop deployments will remain in place for now, KIRIPOST added. However, neither side will advance forces, conduct patrols into contested areas or undertake actions that could be seen as provocative. Air operations, unprovoked firing and any movement that risks escalation have been explicitly ruled out under the agreement.

The ceasefire applies across all areas and covers the use of all types of weapon. According to the report, both sides have also agreed to avoid actions that could further endanger civilians or damage civilian infrastructure, including homes, schools and public facilities. Any construction or reinforcement of military positions beyond existing lines has been suspended.

Attention has now turned to humanitarian concerns reports from the region say. Civilians displaced by the fighting will be allowed to return to their homes as soon as conditions permit, with assurances of safety and dignity. More than 1mn people on both sides of the border are estimated to have been forced to flee since the conflict erupted earlier this month.

The latest fighting, which began on December 7 following landmine explosions that injured Thai patrols, has exacted a heavy toll. Cambodian authorities report dozens of civilian deaths and scores of injuries, while Thailand has confirmed significant military and civilian casualties of its own.

The agreement, however, leaves unresolved the long-running dispute over border demarcation. Both governments have nonetheless committed to resuming the work of the Joint Boundary Commission, including survey and demarcation activities under existing bilateral frameworks and measures to ensure the safety of survey teams, particularly in areas affected by landmines, will form part of this effort.

PAKISTAN

‘Failed’ economic model


Shahid Mehmood 
Published December 27, 2025  
DAWN


ABOUT two weeks ago, the head of the Special Investment Facilitation Council declared that Pakistan has a ‘failed’ economic model. As an eco­nomist, though, I was not surprised because the failure of our ‘economic model’ (whatever that is) has been known for long. Importantly, though, how did we end up with a ‘failed’ model? And, what does a ‘successful’ economic model look like?

I’ll address the second query first, partly owing to the recent award of the Nobel Prize in Economics to three economists (Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt) and also because it will give us a fair idea of the first query.


The recorded history of mankind’s economic activities shows that real income growth followed a pretty flat trajectory, but saw a remarkable uptick in the 19th century as the Industrial Revolution picked up pace (the ‘hockey stick’ phenomenon). What factors underlay this stupendous transformation? The work of the three winners addresses this very question.

The two most famous long-term growth theories are that of Robert Solow and Paul Romer (both Nobel Prize winners). Solow identified population growth, savings, and technological change as the factors that drive economic growth. Of this, technology is the most important component since by itself, population and savings alone can drive growth to a certain level, but beyond that, as depreciation catches up, the economy reaches a ‘steady state’ beyond which returns of these two factors keep falling. It was persistent technological change that would keep the economy above its steady state level. However, for Solow, technological change was ‘exogenous’ (the ‘black box’) — determined outside the system.


The staggering number of talented individuals leaving Pakistan would trouble any serious policymaker.

Romer came up with his theory in his paper ‘Endogenous Technological Change’ (1990). He agreed with Solow’s contention that technological change is the most critical input in long-term growth. Where he differed was that it was determined within the system by the ‘intentional’ actions of innovators who had incentives to innovate in order to earn more than average earnings. One of his contentions, which he called the ‘most fundamental premise of his theory’, was that the process of technological innovation has a fixed cost, meaning that an innovator can build upon that knowledge with zero marginal expense. At the heart of his theory were two variables — high-quality human capital, and the endless possibility of profits with the expansion of the size of the market, which would mainly come courtesy of international trade.


Aghion and Howitt wrote their seminal paper ‘A Model of Economic Growth through Creative Destruction’ around the same time (1992) as Romer. They based their work on the idea of ‘creative destruction’, a term coined by Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950) who hypothesised that the workings of capitalism are underpinned by “gales of creative destruction”; the most creative would survive but the less creative would not be so lucky.

If creativity also carries a destructive tendency, how did industrialised countries end up with steadily increasing real income growth? They answer this by pointing out that there are thousands of sectors functioning in an economy; creative destruction in one is usually balanced out by creative growth in another. There are countless examples: BlackBerry replaced by iPhones and Netscape replaced by Google. Or take stock of the fact that Google or Amazon were merely blips on the vast canvas of the New York Stock Exchange at the start of the 21st century (few had heard of Elon Musk). Now, these three are some of the largest companies on the planet.

Many companies and businesses vanished, but new were born, thus balancing out the destructive tendencies. This process critically depends upon innovators who take risks, and also an enabling environment.

Mokyr’s work is the most phenomenal in terms of the broad sweep of technological history. One of the most interesting queries he propounds, amongst countless others, is why England (and Europe in general) took the lead during the Industrial Revolution. His answer, for the most part, rests on the importance of traits like curiosity, knowledge diffusion and exchange, a tolerant environment and persistent push by curious innovators. The price incentive, so important in Romer, Howitt and Aghion’s work, is relatively subdued in his hypothesis. Gautier, the inventor of the hot air balloon in the 1870s, did so out of curiosity. Bacon and Newton helped foster a culture of ideas and exchange, carried out by various scientific ‘societies’ founded in England, without any price or profit incentive. It was a cultural revolution (the ‘Enlightenment’) from whose bosom sprang the Industrial Revolution.

In his writings, we again find the critical role of high-quality human capital (‘upper tail human capital’) as in Romer’s, Howitt’s and Aghion’s theories and why it is so important for long-term economic growth.

Although what I stated above does not do justification to the vast expanse of research of these three, it does give us a fair idea of the factors that constitute a ‘successful’ economic model. Now contemplate which of these factors are historically at play in Pakistan? None. For example, what of Pakistan’s ‘upper tail’ human capital? The staggering number of highly skilled individuals leaving this country for decades would deeply trouble any serious policymaker, except for those who revel in the prospect of more remittances.

And what of the tremendous opportunities afforded by the global economy, where the trade in goods and services stands at a staggering $23 trillion? What’s our share? Not even $100 billion. Can there be any bigger reflection of our calamitous failure?

But why take risks, for example, when it’s easy to make gazillions from export permits for commodities like sugar, create a shortage and then import the same at triple the price? Why incentivise upper tail human capital to contribute at home when pushing them out of the country would mean more remittances?

Suffice to say, economic growth does not rest upon accounting and PR gimmickry. Above all, any serious attempt at ‘successful’ long-term economic growth in Pakistan should begin with those in the state machinery sticking to their job requirements.

The writer is an economist. His current research focuses on long-term analysis of various issues plaguing Pakistan’s economy, economic reforms and history of economic thought.

shahid.mohmand@gmail.com

X: @ShahidMohmand79

Published in Dawn, December 27th, 2025
Revisiting the Draconian Indian Law of Preventive Detention

Madan B. Lokur
26/Dec/2025
THE WIRE, INDIA


With recurrent abuse of the NSA, the courts should now consider examining whether an order of preventive detention is actually preventative or punitive.



People take part in a protest march demanding the release of climate activist Sonam Wangchuk, who was recently detained following the September 24 violent clashes in Ladakh, at Chhatrapati Sambhaji Raje Garden, in Pune, Saturday, Oct. 4, 2025. Photo: PTI

LONG READ


The Supreme Court has a great opportunity to prevent and stop manifold injustices caused to detenus under various preventive detention laws. I have in mind the preventive detention of Sonam Wangchuk. I hope the court grabs the opportunity with both hands and makes it clear to the Executive that preventive detention is distinct from punitive detention.

Preventive detention laws are enacted for application in rare cases, if not in the rarest of rare cases. Yes, the Maintenance of Security Act (MISA) was abused during the Emergency years when thousands were detained to prevent them from committing an offence endangering internal security. But our judges stood up to the injustice and 9 of the 11 high courts quashed the preventive detention orders. (The other two high courts perhaps had no such cases before them). MISA was subsequently repealed in 1978.

The Conservation of Foreign Exchange and Prevention of Smuggling Activities Act, 1974 (COFEPOSA) was used and abused in the 1980s and 1990s when gold and other valuable items were smuggled by carriers (called mules) who would use a suitcase with a fake or collapsible bottom for smuggling; some would swallow drugs safely packed in a plastic bag or hide gold biscuits in the rectum. Dozens were caught while trying to smuggle and preventively detained, but their handlers, big fish, always got away. The courts appreciated the damage these smugglers caused to the economy. But all judges gave greater importance to the injustice caused by the denial of constitutional rights and civil liberties of the detenus without a trial and relied on procedural flaws to release them.

Not once did the courts delve into the merits of the allegations made against the detenus. The reason was simple. The courts have no power of judicial review over the subjective satisfaction of the detaining authority, which is not justiciable. This is well settled law over decades. In my view, the jurisprudence of a hands-off approach to subjective satisfaction must now be revisited thanks to abuse of the preventive detention law by the Executive.

Punitive detention is resorted to when a person allegedly commits an offence and is accused, based on investigation, of having committed that offence. There is, therefore, a clear distinction between the two forms of detention – preventive and punitive. Of late, this distinction is getting blurred and, perhaps, deliberately so.

In the recent past, preventive detention orders under the National Security Act (NSA) have been liberally issued, reminiscent of the Emergency period. It appears that the establishment has concluded that it is so much easier and more effective to arrest and detain a person under the NSA than to do so under the penal law, including under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA).

The NSA is applicable only if the Union government or the state government is (subjectively) satisfied that it is necessary to detain a person “with a view to preventing him from acting in any manner prejudicial to the defence of India, the relations of India with foreign powers, or the security of India” or “with a view to preventing him from acting in any manner prejudicial to the security of the State or from acting in any manner prejudicial to the maintenance of public order or from acting in any manner prejudicial to the maintenance of supplies and services essential to the community.”

Therefore, a person is detained on the prognosis that he is likely to commit an offence if he is not detained and not because he has allegedly committed an offence – reminding one of the Hollywood movie Minority Report kind of situation.

In Parvez v. State of UP (2021) the Allahabad high court quashed a preventive detention order under the NSA against the detenu for “cutting beef” in his house in the wee hours of the morning. The high court held, and rightly so that “cutting beef” did not raise a public order issue. However, two facts arising from this case are surprising.

First, every preventive detention order is tested before an Advisory Board constituted under the NSA consisting of a person who is or has been a judge of the high court and two others who have been or are qualified to be judges of the high court. These worthies are entitled to decide whether the detaining authority has bona fide and subjectively satisfied himself of the necessity of preventively detaining the detenu. Surprisingly, the Advisory Board did not do so and therefore failed to quash the preventive detention order. The report of the Advisory Board is confidential so we will never know the reasons that weighed with it to uphold the detention.

Second, it took the Allahabad high court almost one year to quash the detention order meaning thereby that the person was in jail for almost a year without a trial and only because the district magistrate felt that he should be in custody to prevent him from committing a similar offence. There are quite a few such cases, despite the minister of state in the Home Ministry having rightly informed Parliament (as reported on the website of India Today) that “Transportation of cattle and cow slaughter are not punishable offences under the NSA.”

More recently, the Supreme Court dealt with the case of a student who was preventively detained in July 2024. It appears that the order of preventive detention under the NSA was for a short period but was extended from time to time till July 2025. The grounds for detention disclosed that there were eight criminal cases against him. He was acquitted in five of them; in one case he was convicted with the punishment being a fine; two cases were pending but he was granted bail. The only reason why he continued in custody was because of the preventive detention order. Preventive detention laws do not postulate grant of bail and this student remained in custody only for this reason, despite having obtained bail for alleged penal offences. The Supreme Court has not yet passed a reasoned order setting aside his preventive detention, but it appears from a reading of the quashing order that his detention was not preventive but punitive.

With recurrent abuse of the NSA, the courts should now consider examining whether an order of preventive detention is actually preventative or punitive. The courts should also now consider holding a detaining authority accountable for passing an order of punitive action in the guise of preventive detention. Thirdly, the Courts should consider introducing bail jurisprudence in appropriate cases of preventive detention. Otherwise, as in the case of Parvez or the student, there is certainty that a person will be in punitive custody for a few months at least.

Sonam Wangchuk was preventively detained under the NSA three months ago. Given the reasons for his detention that are in the public domain, is his detention preventive or punitive? This is as fit a case as any for revisiting the draconian law of preventive detention or at least making it more humane.


Madan B. Lokur is a former judge of the Supreme Court of India.

 

Bangladesh: Interim Govt Pushing Country Toward Civil War, Says Workers Party



Abdul Rahman 





The party claims religious extremist mobs have been allowed to target their offices, leading newspapers, secular cultural organizations and persons from minority community with impunity.


Aftermath of mob and arson attacks on the office of daily Prothom Alo in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Scores of journalists, political and human rights activists attended a protest jointly organized by Bangladesh’s Editor’s Council and Newspaper Owners Association (NOAM) in Dhaka on Monday, December 22 to denounce last week’s attacks on leading newspapers and journalists in the country.

Claiming such attacks are attempts to silence critical voices, speakers appealed to the social forces in the country to raise their voices in protest in order to protect the (remaining) social and political freedoms in the country.

Bangladesh has seen repeated attacks on opposition parties such as the Awami League and Workers Party of Bangladesh (WPB), religious minorities, and symbols of Bangladesh’s national liberation struggle, since the formation of the interim administration last year.

However, a fresh round of violence erupted in the country last week following the news of the death of Sharif Osman Hadi, a lead organizer of the anti-quota protests against Sheikh Hasina’s government in July-August last year and a candidate for the upcoming national elections in the from one of the constituencies in Dhaka.

Hadi was shot on December 12 in Dhaka and was getting treatment in a hospital in Singapore where he passed on December 18.

The night of his death, Mostakur Rahman, a student leader and member of Bangladesh Islami Chhatra Shibir, the male student wing of Jamaat-e-Islami, gave a speech calling for two leading daily newspapers, the Daily Star and Prothom Alo, in the country to be shut down.

As reported by Prothom Alo, Rahman told a large crowd in Rajshahi, “We declare from today’s program that these so-called ‘civil’ newspapers, including Prothom Alo and The Daily Star, must be shut down. We believe that if any journalists from Prothom Alo or The Daily Star are attending this programme, they should leave immediately.”

His calls were echoed by others across social media and soon, mobs of people acted on it.

That very night and into the next morning, the offices of the Daily Star and Prothom Alowere attacked and vandalized by large violent mobs while hundreds of journalists and other staff inside. The editor of another newspaper New Age was also harassed by a mob on the same day.

Both the Daily Star and Prothom Alo could not publish their editions on December 19 due to the damages caused by the attack. Prothom Alo claimed it missed publishing an edition for the first time since their founding 27 years ago.

The attackers, as reported in the local media, had accused the Daily Star and Prothom Alo of pushing the ideology of Hasina’s Awami League which has been banned from contesting the national election next year.

The attacks on the newspaper was part of a series of violent attacks on various opposition parties including the offices of the left-wing WPB and its student and youth organizations, the country’s leading cultural organizations Chayyanaut and Udichi, members of the minority religious communities and monument of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the leader of Bangladesh’s liberation war and its first prime minister.

Known as Bangbandhu Bhavan, the monument is located at Dhanmondi in Dhaka. It was targeted and vandalized in February this year as well.

February’s attack on Dhanmandi was led by the leaders of the anti-quota protest who are part of the interim government led by Mohammad Yunus. These political sectors have now formed the National Citizens Party (NCP) and are contesting in the upcoming national elections.

Push towards a civil war

The Awami League called the attacks on Dhanmondi an attempt to destroy the history of the country expressing hope that such attempts will be resisted by the people.

In dialogue with Peoples Dispatch, Sharif Shamsir, a left activist, claimed that the attacks last week were part of the concerned effort to silence the secular and nationalist opposition in the country. He claimed that the newspapers were targeted despite their pro-Yunus stance as they continue to write against the rising religious extremism in the country and are in favor of secular polity.

Shamsir also claimed that the attackers were supported by the political formations such as Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and others had expressed their discontent that these newspapers had published a series of articles celebrating the country’s national liberation movement on the occasion of this years’ National Liberation Day on December 16.

Offices of the WPB and its youth and student fronts have been attacked repeatedly by right-wing mobs as it is seen as a part of the secular nationalist alliance opposed to the religious groups in politics. WPB has also called the interim government an instrument of imperialist intervention in the country.

“These repeated incidents of attacks, vandalism, arson and occupation constitute serious obstacles to the ongoing struggle to build a democratic Bangladesh and severely hinder the practice of free thought and expression,” said Jubo Maitree (youth wing of the WPB) in a statement on Monday.

Condemning last week’s violence WPB reiterated that the interim government has failed to protect the political and media freedom in the country and has surrendered in front of the extremist forces.

Though Yunus personally condemned the attacks as barbaric, his government has been criticized for failing to take strong action against the attackers.

“Imperialist and fundamentalist forces, in a highly premeditated manner, have destabilized Bangladesh and established a reign of mob rule with the cooperation of the ruling regime,” WPB’s statement said.

WPB denounced that under Yunus regime incidents of murder, terrorism, rape and human rights violations have now become commonplace.

The government’s failure to protect the religious and political plurality of the country by letting the extremist forces take the law of the land in their hands without any repercussions, WPB said, will push the country towards a civil war.

Courtesy: Peoples Dispatch

Mexican Tariffs and India’s Position


Arsh K.S. 



Mexico is India’s third largest car export market. Manufacturers, such as Maruti-Suzuki and Tata, could find their vehicles uncompetitively priced overnight.


Representational Image. Image Courtesy: Rawpixel

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government on December 10, 2025, approved tariffs of up to 50% against several Asian countries with whom Mexico does not have a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), including India. In reality, these tariffs have been in place since April 2024. What has changed, however, is that the earlier tariffs were put in place by the Andrés Manuel López Obrador administration and were a temporary measure that was limited to 544 product lines from countries with whom Mexico did not share an FTA policy. It was set to expire in April 2026.

The new set of tariff legislation by the Mexican Congress, however, is set to transform this temporary measure, which was initially passed as an executive decree, into a Congressional Law whose ambit would now extend to 1,463 product lines. 

This is to take effect from January 1, 2026. These tariffs are on automobiles, auto-parts, motorcycles, iron & steel, aluminium, smartphones and electronics, textiles and apparel, footwear and leather goods, industrial machinery, and plastics and chemicals. While most of the tariffs are capped at 35%, automobiles face the maximum 50% duty.

These developments have significant consequences for India’s industry. Particularly so because Mexico is India’s third largest car export market. Manufacturers, such as Maruti-Suzuki and Tata, could find their vehicles uncompetitively priced overnight.

Why have these tariffs been implemented? This primarily has to do with Mexico’s trade relations with the US. Mexico and the US share an FTA. However, goods from Asia, and particularly China, were being shipped to Mexico, where minimal assembly was taking place, and then sold to the US after being branded ‘Made in Mexico’, thereby exploiting the US, Mexico and Canada Trade Agreement. Because of this, on February 1, 2025, the Donald Trump administration had imposed a blanket 25% tariff on all Mexican exports.

These newly extended tariffs by the Sheinbaum administration are effectively a peace offering to Washington as well as a sign that Mexico is willing to cooperate to build a ‘Fortress North America’ against Asian industrial imports.

The Mexican government would also have in mind the upcoming USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) joint review meeting on July 1, 2026.  This would allow them to enter into the negotiations with a clean slate. By raising tariffs against non-FTA countries, a major American pain point, which is the flood of cheap Asian steel and electronic vehicles, is addressed.

Amidst the present protectionist trade climate, the Mexican government is also trying to protect domestic jobs. These tariffs would force companies that presently source parts from India and China to purchase them from Mexican factories instead. What would also weigh on the mind of the Mexican government is the present trade deficit with China, with whom $14 are imported for every $1exported. The goal appears to be to promote local manufacturing to diminish that gap. There is also the country’s national deficit to keep in mind. The tariffs that have been levied will generate $3.76 billion for the government, allowing it to fund its social programmes and infrastructural projects without raises taxes.

The Indian government is aware of how this will impact the country’s exports and that an FTA may take years to negotiate. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal has said that talks were on for a Preferential Trade Agreement in its place. Regarding the balance of trade between India and Mexico at present, the value of merchandise that crosses borders is $8.74 billion as of 2024, with exports consisting of $5.73 billion, imports consisting of $3.01 billion and a trade surplus of $2.72 billion.    

Indian industry will now have to at least temporarily find an alternative market for the share of its automotive and engineering goods that in the pre-tariff era found purchase in Mexico. This is not necessarily a glum situation, as India has on July 24, 2025, signed FTAs with the United Kingdom allowing duty free access to automobile components, textiles and leather commodities that were hit by Mexican tariffs.

Apart from the UK in 2024, a deal was signed with European Free Trade Association countries, such as Switzerland, Norway, Sweden and Lichtenstein. This opens a market for engineered goods and pharmaceuticals. There is also the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement or CEPA between India and the United Arab Emirates that can be utilised to re-route Mexican-bound products. It is worth noting that both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are seeing double digit growth in the demand for electronics from India.

For lower cost vehicles and motorcycles, Indian exporters are looking to African countries, such as Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa. Egypt itself saw a growth of 27% as a market for Indian exports as of 2025. To the East, while there is significant competition from China, Indian exports of auto components find markets in Vietnam and Indonesia.

Domestically there has been a noted demand for SUV’s and mid-sized cars which can offset some of the production intended for Mexico. This market is projected to grow at 6 -8% in 2026.   

The writer is an independent journalist, pursuing his PhD. The views are personal.