Syria: The fall of the regime, the future of the country and Turkey’s war on the Kurds
First published at Arguing for Socialism.
The extremely rapid and unexpected fall of Syria’s Assad dictatorship is a political earthquake in the Middle East. A regime (father and son) that had endured since 1970 is gone.
There were hardly any battles; the regime’s forces didn’t want to fight and just melted away (deserted, defected). Assad’s long-time backers — Russia, Iran and Hezbollah — had all been weakened by recent events, but in any case they could not support the regime if its own forces had lost all will to fight.
The main component of the rebels now in control is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), once the Al Qaeda group in Syria but now rebranded and improbably claiming to have changed. It has clearly been backed by Turkey but seems to have a relative independence.
The second big component of the rebels is the so-called “Syrian National Army” (SNA), a collection of jihadist gangs completely controlled by Turkey and used as an anti-Kurd militia. Large sections, if not most, of the SNA are simply rebadged Islamic State killers.
An important third and quite separate and independent element of the rebel forces is based south of Damascus in the provinces of Daraa and Suwayda. The latter is the heartland of the Druze community.
First published at Arguing for Socialism.
The extremely rapid and unexpected fall of Syria’s Assad dictatorship is a political earthquake in the Middle East. A regime (father and son) that had endured since 1970 is gone.
There were hardly any battles; the regime’s forces didn’t want to fight and just melted away (deserted, defected). Assad’s long-time backers — Russia, Iran and Hezbollah — had all been weakened by recent events, but in any case they could not support the regime if its own forces had lost all will to fight.
The main component of the rebels now in control is Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), once the Al Qaeda group in Syria but now rebranded and improbably claiming to have changed. It has clearly been backed by Turkey but seems to have a relative independence.
The second big component of the rebels is the so-called “Syrian National Army” (SNA), a collection of jihadist gangs completely controlled by Turkey and used as an anti-Kurd militia. Large sections, if not most, of the SNA are simply rebadged Islamic State killers.
An important third and quite separate and independent element of the rebel forces is based south of Damascus in the provinces of Daraa and Suwayda. The latter is the heartland of the Druze community.
What will happen?
The Syrian people are obviously extremely hopeful. Whatever the uncertainties, a ghastly dictatorship has fallen and its prisons have been emptied. There is the prospect of a new Syria but the country has been wrecked and millions of its people are refugees or internally displaced. They want to return but most have nothing to return to. Also, they are unsure about the new regime.
The big question is: What will HTS do now? We should not take HTS leader al-Jolani’s claims at face value. I agree with Gilbert Achcar’s assessment:
The truth is that HTS would not have been able to spread in place of the forces of the collapsed regime had it not pretended to change its skin and open up to a democratic, non-sectarian future. Otherwise, local forces from Homs to Damascus would have fiercely resisted it, whether under the wing of the defunct regime or after emancipating from it. Now, al-Jolani’s haste to claim that he has turned the “Salvation Government” that ruled the Idlib region into the new Syrian government, frustrating the hopes of those who expected him to call for a coalition government, highlights a fact that should have remained in people’s minds: the fact that the residents of the Idlib region themselves demonstrated only eight months ago against HTS’s tyranny, demanding the overthrow of al-Jolani, the dissolution of his repressive apparatuses, and the release of detainees in his prisons.
Some ominous signs of where things are headed:
- The new HTS government has issued a directive to all Palestinian groups on Syrian territory. They will no longer be allowed to possess any weapons, training camps, or military headquarters and must dissolve their military formations as soon as possible and solely do political and charitable work.
- A December 11 article in Rupture reports that “female judges will be banned from courts that are now reserved exclusively for men. All pending cases handled by women will have to be transferred to male judges.” If this means what it appears to mean, it is a very serious step backwards.
Tariq Ali makes a very sharp negative assessment of Syria’s prospects:
None but a few corrupt cronies will be shedding tears at the tyrant’s departure. But there should be no doubt that what we are witnessing in Syria today is a huge defeat, a mini 1967 for the Arab world.
The Syrian people are obviously extremely hopeful. Whatever the uncertainties, a ghastly dictatorship has fallen and its prisons have been emptied. There is the prospect of a new Syria but the country has been wrecked and millions of its people are refugees or internally displaced. They want to return but most have nothing to return to. Also, they are unsure about the new regime.
The big question is: What will HTS do now? We should not take HTS leader al-Jolani’s claims at face value. I agree with Gilbert Achcar’s assessment:
The truth is that HTS would not have been able to spread in place of the forces of the collapsed regime had it not pretended to change its skin and open up to a democratic, non-sectarian future. Otherwise, local forces from Homs to Damascus would have fiercely resisted it, whether under the wing of the defunct regime or after emancipating from it. Now, al-Jolani’s haste to claim that he has turned the “Salvation Government” that ruled the Idlib region into the new Syrian government, frustrating the hopes of those who expected him to call for a coalition government, highlights a fact that should have remained in people’s minds: the fact that the residents of the Idlib region themselves demonstrated only eight months ago against HTS’s tyranny, demanding the overthrow of al-Jolani, the dissolution of his repressive apparatuses, and the release of detainees in his prisons.
Some ominous signs of where things are headed:
- The new HTS government has issued a directive to all Palestinian groups on Syrian territory. They will no longer be allowed to possess any weapons, training camps, or military headquarters and must dissolve their military formations as soon as possible and solely do political and charitable work.
- A December 11 article in Rupture reports that “female judges will be banned from courts that are now reserved exclusively for men. All pending cases handled by women will have to be transferred to male judges.” If this means what it appears to mean, it is a very serious step backwards.
Tariq Ali makes a very sharp negative assessment of Syria’s prospects:
None but a few corrupt cronies will be shedding tears at the tyrant’s departure. But there should be no doubt that what we are witnessing in Syria today is a huge defeat, a mini 1967 for the Arab world.
Winners & losers
Russia would seem to have lost badly. A longtime client has evaporated. The future of its two big military bases on the Mediterranean coast is completely unclear at this point but their survival seems unlikely.
Another big loser is Iran: all its influence has gone and it no longer has a land link to its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hezbollah has clearly been badly weakened by the war with Israel. It has now lost its overland supply route from Iran. The ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah was not an unalloyed victory for Israel: it was fought to a standstill on the ground in southern Lebanon.
But there is no getting around the fact that the ceasefire has completely “decoupled” Gaza and Lebanon. Hezbollah’s strategy of limited war on Israel is finished. And under the terms of the ceasefire it may well have to abandon its vast network of tunnels, bunkers and fortifications in the south. The organisation is clearly facing an existential challenge.
Russia would seem to have lost badly. A longtime client has evaporated. The future of its two big military bases on the Mediterranean coast is completely unclear at this point but their survival seems unlikely.
Another big loser is Iran: all its influence has gone and it no longer has a land link to its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hezbollah has clearly been badly weakened by the war with Israel. It has now lost its overland supply route from Iran. The ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah was not an unalloyed victory for Israel: it was fought to a standstill on the ground in southern Lebanon.
But there is no getting around the fact that the ceasefire has completely “decoupled” Gaza and Lebanon. Hezbollah’s strategy of limited war on Israel is finished. And under the terms of the ceasefire it may well have to abandon its vast network of tunnels, bunkers and fortifications in the south. The organisation is clearly facing an existential challenge.
Role of Israel
As the regime was collapsing, Israel conducted hundreds of airstrikes against Syria. Hundreds of raids have hit military bases and depots all across the country. The aim is to destroy all heavy weapons as well as the airforce and navy. While Assad was in control Israel knew these would never be used against it; now they want to be sure that no new, potentially hostile actors get control of them.
Israeli ground forces have advanced into Syria from the occupied Golan Heights and are on the outskirts of Damascus.
What is the HTS attitude to Israel? Israel’s bombing certainly helped it defeat the regime forces. And their directive to Palestinian groups to cease and desist is a very clear indication of where things stand.
As the regime was collapsing, Israel conducted hundreds of airstrikes against Syria. Hundreds of raids have hit military bases and depots all across the country. The aim is to destroy all heavy weapons as well as the airforce and navy. While Assad was in control Israel knew these would never be used against it; now they want to be sure that no new, potentially hostile actors get control of them.
Israeli ground forces have advanced into Syria from the occupied Golan Heights and are on the outskirts of Damascus.
What is the HTS attitude to Israel? Israel’s bombing certainly helped it defeat the regime forces. And their directive to Palestinian groups to cease and desist is a very clear indication of where things stand.
The Autonomous Administration
All the territory east of the Euphrates is controlled by the Democratic Autonomous Administration of Northern and Eastern Syria (DAANES) and its armed wing, the Syrian Democratic Forces. Initially, with the collapse of the regime, units of the SDF crossed the river and occupied the city of Deir ez-Zor on the western side, guaranteeing its security. (It is important to understand that while the Kurdish People's Defense Units [YPG] and Women's Protection Units [YPJ] are the backbone of the SDF, it is a majority Arab formation.) But the SDF has now been forced to withdraw back across the river.
Today, the Autonomous Administration controls about one-third of the country and a lot of its wheat lands, oil and water resources.
In the largely empty Syrian Desert, the Islamic State gangs are reforming and growing bolder. This is another big danger.
All the territory east of the Euphrates is controlled by the Democratic Autonomous Administration of Northern and Eastern Syria (DAANES) and its armed wing, the Syrian Democratic Forces. Initially, with the collapse of the regime, units of the SDF crossed the river and occupied the city of Deir ez-Zor on the western side, guaranteeing its security. (It is important to understand that while the Kurdish People's Defense Units [YPG] and Women's Protection Units [YPJ] are the backbone of the SDF, it is a majority Arab formation.) But the SDF has now been forced to withdraw back across the river.
Today, the Autonomous Administration controls about one-third of the country and a lot of its wheat lands, oil and water resources.
In the largely empty Syrian Desert, the Islamic State gangs are reforming and growing bolder. This is another big danger.
Role of Turkey
Ever since modern Turkey was founded in 1923, it has pursued an aggressive anti-Kurd policy. Despite being around a quarter of the population, for a century Kurds have suffered repression, massacres, language bans, denationalisation and other marginalisation measures. Today Turkey is trying to suppress any manifestations of Kurdish self-organisation — in Turkey itself, in northern Iraq and in Syria.
Turkey’s main objective in Syria is to destroy any and all expressions of Kurdish national existence, to establish a “buffer zone” along the whole long border with Syria, to ethnically cleanse it of Kurds and to push the Kurds and the DAANES as far south as possible.
Right now, it seems that Turkey is trying to ethnically cleanse all the Kurds west of the Euphrates and expel their self-defence forces.
- In 2018 Turkey invaded and occupied Afrin, the isolated westernmost canton of Rojava, and the most peaceful part of Syria; today it has been ethnically cleansed of most Kurds and is a dangerous, lawless place. Many families of Arab jihadists have been settled there. The next year Turkey occupied another chunk of northern Syria further east.
- After the fall of Afrin many Kurdish refugees moved to Tel Rifaat and the Shehba region. From 2016 security was shared between the SDF and regime forces. Now the SNA gangs have seized Tel Rifaat and Shehba. 150,000-200,000 people were evacuated eastwards.
- Then heavy fighting enveloped Manbij, closer to the Euphrates River. Manbij has a Kurdish community but it is mainly Arab. Thousands of SNA thugs and the Turkish airforce attacked the town as well as the Qerekozak bridge over the river. They met fierce resistance and hundreds of jihadists were killed. A US-brokered ceasefire appears to have fallen through. There are reports of atrocities committed by the SNA gangs.
- The Tishrin hydroelectric dam on the river has also been the scene of big battles and has been damaged and put out of commission. It normally supplies power to Kobane and many other towns and villages on the eastern side.
- The Kurdish community in the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh neighbourhoods of Aleppo remains largely isolated in the west of the country. The HTS wants the SDF to withdraw but that would leave the Kurds and other communities there defenceless — some 400,000 people would be at risk of massacre. A general mobilisation of the population has been organised for a mass defence of the area. The SDF is trying to negotiate with the new authorities.
Ever since modern Turkey was founded in 1923, it has pursued an aggressive anti-Kurd policy. Despite being around a quarter of the population, for a century Kurds have suffered repression, massacres, language bans, denationalisation and other marginalisation measures. Today Turkey is trying to suppress any manifestations of Kurdish self-organisation — in Turkey itself, in northern Iraq and in Syria.
Turkey’s main objective in Syria is to destroy any and all expressions of Kurdish national existence, to establish a “buffer zone” along the whole long border with Syria, to ethnically cleanse it of Kurds and to push the Kurds and the DAANES as far south as possible.
Right now, it seems that Turkey is trying to ethnically cleanse all the Kurds west of the Euphrates and expel their self-defence forces.
- In 2018 Turkey invaded and occupied Afrin, the isolated westernmost canton of Rojava, and the most peaceful part of Syria; today it has been ethnically cleansed of most Kurds and is a dangerous, lawless place. Many families of Arab jihadists have been settled there. The next year Turkey occupied another chunk of northern Syria further east.
- After the fall of Afrin many Kurdish refugees moved to Tel Rifaat and the Shehba region. From 2016 security was shared between the SDF and regime forces. Now the SNA gangs have seized Tel Rifaat and Shehba. 150,000-200,000 people were evacuated eastwards.
- Then heavy fighting enveloped Manbij, closer to the Euphrates River. Manbij has a Kurdish community but it is mainly Arab. Thousands of SNA thugs and the Turkish airforce attacked the town as well as the Qerekozak bridge over the river. They met fierce resistance and hundreds of jihadists were killed. A US-brokered ceasefire appears to have fallen through. There are reports of atrocities committed by the SNA gangs.
- The Tishrin hydroelectric dam on the river has also been the scene of big battles and has been damaged and put out of commission. It normally supplies power to Kobane and many other towns and villages on the eastern side.
- The Kurdish community in the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh neighbourhoods of Aleppo remains largely isolated in the west of the country. The HTS wants the SDF to withdraw but that would leave the Kurds and other communities there defenceless — some 400,000 people would be at risk of massacre. A general mobilisation of the population has been organised for a mass defence of the area. The SDF is trying to negotiate with the new authorities.
Rojava revolution: A beacon of hope
As I wrote in a 2019 article on the seventh anniversary of the Rojava Revolution:
[T]he Rojava Revolution has attracted widespread interest, admiration and support around the world because of its heroic and unyielding fight against the barbaric Islamic State and the extensive and unprecedented participation of women in the fighting forces. Alongside the male YPG is the all-female Women's Protection forces (YPJ), a 25,000-strong women's army which has furnished its share of both military leadership and fighters, and martyrs of the struggle.
In Northern Syria the revolution is attempting to build a new society, one in which all ethnic and religious groups can live together amicably and cooperatively, in which women are empowered to enjoy their full human rights, and which is based on grassroots democracy and a cooperative economy.
Celebrated refugee Behrooz Boochani (an Iranian Kurd) accurately described Rojava as “the most progressive and democratic system in the history of the Middle East”.
This remains the case today and Socialist Alliance remains enthusiastic partisans of the Kurdish freedom struggle in general and in particular the whole emancipatory project represented by DAANES, which involves not only Kurds but Arabs, Assyrians, Chechens, Circassians, Turkmen and others. The area is an incredibly rich mosaic of humanity.
The Autonomous Administration points the way to a new Syria — decentralised and federalised; and democratic, multiethnic, feminist and focused on ecology (which Syria desperately needs if it is to survive rapidly onrushing climate change).
As I wrote in a 2019 article on the seventh anniversary of the Rojava Revolution:
[T]he Rojava Revolution has attracted widespread interest, admiration and support around the world because of its heroic and unyielding fight against the barbaric Islamic State and the extensive and unprecedented participation of women in the fighting forces. Alongside the male YPG is the all-female Women's Protection forces (YPJ), a 25,000-strong women's army which has furnished its share of both military leadership and fighters, and martyrs of the struggle.
In Northern Syria the revolution is attempting to build a new society, one in which all ethnic and religious groups can live together amicably and cooperatively, in which women are empowered to enjoy their full human rights, and which is based on grassroots democracy and a cooperative economy.
Celebrated refugee Behrooz Boochani (an Iranian Kurd) accurately described Rojava as “the most progressive and democratic system in the history of the Middle East”.
This remains the case today and Socialist Alliance remains enthusiastic partisans of the Kurdish freedom struggle in general and in particular the whole emancipatory project represented by DAANES, which involves not only Kurds but Arabs, Assyrians, Chechens, Circassians, Turkmen and others. The area is an incredibly rich mosaic of humanity.
The Autonomous Administration points the way to a new Syria — decentralised and federalised; and democratic, multiethnic, feminist and focused on ecology (which Syria desperately needs if it is to survive rapidly onrushing climate change).
Socialist Alliance & the Kurdish freedom struggle
Our current has always supported the national rights of the Kurds. But with the rise of the Islamic State, and the assaults on Kobani in July 2014 and the epic October-January siege of the city, we stepped things up dramatically. In early October 2014 Socialist Alliance adopted a resolution (see here) committing the organisation to supporting Rojava as a living revolution. We have helped build solidarity actions in collaboration with the Kurdish communities, helped organise two major conferences with our Kurdish friends, continually publicised the issue in Green Left and LINKS, published a pamphlet, held public forums and internal educationals and generally got into high gear on the Kurdish question.
Since the epic struggle around Kobani, solidarity activity on the ground has declined for various reasons (especially since the rise of the Palestine question) but I think we have to look again at what can be done.
Our current has always supported the national rights of the Kurds. But with the rise of the Islamic State, and the assaults on Kobani in July 2014 and the epic October-January siege of the city, we stepped things up dramatically. In early October 2014 Socialist Alliance adopted a resolution (see here) committing the organisation to supporting Rojava as a living revolution. We have helped build solidarity actions in collaboration with the Kurdish communities, helped organise two major conferences with our Kurdish friends, continually publicised the issue in Green Left and LINKS, published a pamphlet, held public forums and internal educationals and generally got into high gear on the Kurdish question.
Since the epic struggle around Kobani, solidarity activity on the ground has declined for various reasons (especially since the rise of the Palestine question) but I think we have to look again at what can be done.
Alliance with US imperialism
To survive in the face of Turkey’s aggressive and instransigent hostility, Rojava was forced to enter into a limited alliance with the US. In a 2019 article I explained:
Rojava’s alliance with the US has confused some people on the left. It was only ever a tactical military alliance of convenience.
The US needed ground forces to fight the Islamic State. By itself, bombing from the air was never going to do it. So US imperialism allied with a people’s revolution. But Washington never signed up to support commune-style democracy, feminism, and ethnic and religious pluralism.
Rojava obviously needed US airpower and supplies or it would have succumbed to IS long ago. Of course the US was extremely careful not to give the defence forces advanced heavy weaponry (anti-tank missiles, artillery and anti-aircraft missiles) which could have created serious problems for Turkey.
The US alliance has not stopped Turkey. Washington stood by as Turkey grabbed Afrin and the next year occupied another chunk of the border. Recently, the US did not stop Turkey seizing Tel Rifaat and Shehba and attacking Manbij. However, the US does not want to see the SDF wiped out but made more pliable, hence they tried to negotiate a ceasefire in Manbij (which appears to have fallen through).
To survive in the face of Turkey’s aggressive and instransigent hostility, Rojava was forced to enter into a limited alliance with the US. In a 2019 article I explained:
Rojava’s alliance with the US has confused some people on the left. It was only ever a tactical military alliance of convenience.
The US needed ground forces to fight the Islamic State. By itself, bombing from the air was never going to do it. So US imperialism allied with a people’s revolution. But Washington never signed up to support commune-style democracy, feminism, and ethnic and religious pluralism.
Rojava obviously needed US airpower and supplies or it would have succumbed to IS long ago. Of course the US was extremely careful not to give the defence forces advanced heavy weaponry (anti-tank missiles, artillery and anti-aircraft missiles) which could have created serious problems for Turkey.
The US alliance has not stopped Turkey. Washington stood by as Turkey grabbed Afrin and the next year occupied another chunk of the border. Recently, the US did not stop Turkey seizing Tel Rifaat and Shehba and attacking Manbij. However, the US does not want to see the SDF wiped out but made more pliable, hence they tried to negotiate a ceasefire in Manbij (which appears to have fallen through).
Sectarian criticisms
This is all too much for some left groups. For example, Michael Pröbsting argues:
The YPG/SDF, a petty-bourgeois nationalist force active among the Syrian Kurds, has played a highly unfortunate role since the beginning of the offensive of the Syrian revolutionaries. Since the 27 November, it has refused to join the struggle of the liberation fighters to overthrow the Assad tyranny. Worse, it has negotiated a series of deals with the Assad regime, handing over territory and even concluding joint defence agreement to block rebel advances. Let’s be clear: this is a treacherous stab in the back of the Syrian Revolution!
This comes as no surprise. Since the beginning of the Syrian Revolution in March 2011, the YPG leadership — which has very close links with the PKK in Türkiye — never joined the struggle against the tyranny. They rather limited themselves to control Kurdish territories and to keep a peaceful coexistence with the regime.
When the ultra-reactionary Daesh forces (ISIS) attacked the Kurdish territories in 2014, the YPG naturally defended their people against these terrorists (e.g. in Kobane). Socialists could not but support such struggles in defence of the national rights of the Kurds.
However, the YPG leadership went far beyond such legitimate struggles as it has concluded an alliance with US imperialism and jointly occupies the whole eastern region of Syria. By this, they have become foot soldiers of the Yankees and oppressors of the Arab majority population in this region (the Kurds are mostly concentrated in the Afrin region as well as the north-eastern parts of the country).
There are several things that are wrong here:
- Firstly — and it is not a little thing — there is not just the YPG but the YPJ, the Women’s Protection Units,. The YPJ played a vital role in the struggle against IS and is playing a vital role today defending the Kurdish and other communities. In fact, the intense emphasis on women’s liberation and the formation of a women’s army has no precedent — anywhere, anytime. It is a world-historic development — and deeply inspiring.
- “The offensive of the Syrian revolutionaries” . . . The fall of the Assad dictatorship is a great thing and naturally popular hopes are high but the “revolutionaries” are a very mixed bag. The HTS are reactionary jihadists as is the SNA, which is conducting an all-out offensive against the Kurds. Naturally the Kurds are trying the survive this.
- The SDF and its forerunners tried to avoid open clashes with the regime forces and at various times had a limited cooperation with them against IS and Turkish gangs. Some leftists criticise the Kurdish forces for not joining the general anti-regime revolt way back. But the Kurds correctly refused to join in with people who would not accept their national rights.
- Pröbsting charges the SDF with being “foot soldiers of the Yankees and oppressors of the Arab majority population”. As for cooperating with US imperialism, as I have explained, it has only ever been a limited tactical military alliance, with severe limitations. Diehard left sectarians would deny any agreements with imperialist powers but in the real world it is hard to avoid dealing with the devil if you want to survive.
This is all too much for some left groups. For example, Michael Pröbsting argues:
The YPG/SDF, a petty-bourgeois nationalist force active among the Syrian Kurds, has played a highly unfortunate role since the beginning of the offensive of the Syrian revolutionaries. Since the 27 November, it has refused to join the struggle of the liberation fighters to overthrow the Assad tyranny. Worse, it has negotiated a series of deals with the Assad regime, handing over territory and even concluding joint defence agreement to block rebel advances. Let’s be clear: this is a treacherous stab in the back of the Syrian Revolution!
This comes as no surprise. Since the beginning of the Syrian Revolution in March 2011, the YPG leadership — which has very close links with the PKK in Türkiye — never joined the struggle against the tyranny. They rather limited themselves to control Kurdish territories and to keep a peaceful coexistence with the regime.
When the ultra-reactionary Daesh forces (ISIS) attacked the Kurdish territories in 2014, the YPG naturally defended their people against these terrorists (e.g. in Kobane). Socialists could not but support such struggles in defence of the national rights of the Kurds.
However, the YPG leadership went far beyond such legitimate struggles as it has concluded an alliance with US imperialism and jointly occupies the whole eastern region of Syria. By this, they have become foot soldiers of the Yankees and oppressors of the Arab majority population in this region (the Kurds are mostly concentrated in the Afrin region as well as the north-eastern parts of the country).
There are several things that are wrong here:
- Firstly — and it is not a little thing — there is not just the YPG but the YPJ, the Women’s Protection Units,. The YPJ played a vital role in the struggle against IS and is playing a vital role today defending the Kurdish and other communities. In fact, the intense emphasis on women’s liberation and the formation of a women’s army has no precedent — anywhere, anytime. It is a world-historic development — and deeply inspiring.
- “The offensive of the Syrian revolutionaries” . . . The fall of the Assad dictatorship is a great thing and naturally popular hopes are high but the “revolutionaries” are a very mixed bag. The HTS are reactionary jihadists as is the SNA, which is conducting an all-out offensive against the Kurds. Naturally the Kurds are trying the survive this.
- The SDF and its forerunners tried to avoid open clashes with the regime forces and at various times had a limited cooperation with them against IS and Turkish gangs. Some leftists criticise the Kurdish forces for not joining the general anti-regime revolt way back. But the Kurds correctly refused to join in with people who would not accept their national rights.
- Pröbsting charges the SDF with being “foot soldiers of the Yankees and oppressors of the Arab majority population”. As for cooperating with US imperialism, as I have explained, it has only ever been a limited tactical military alliance, with severe limitations. Diehard left sectarians would deny any agreements with imperialist powers but in the real world it is hard to avoid dealing with the devil if you want to survive.
Arab support for DAANES
Is the SDF the oppressor of the Arab majority population? A section of the Arab population is allied with the Kurds and supports the SDF (which is majority Arab). The regime always used Arab chauvinism (Syria after all was the Syrian Arab Republic and its military was the Syrian Arab Army). It is probably true to say that a section of the Arab community is hostile to the DAANES, but I suspect it is a small section.
Here is one story that caught my eye. It is a powerful refutation of sectarian slanders.
Our comrades Îman and Ayşe, one of our women's defence forces, defended their society until the last moment in the resistance positions in Manbij and fell as martyrs on December 8, 2024 in the village of Qereqozak [near the bridge over the Euphrates] in an armed drone attack by the occupying Turkish state.
Our comrade Îman from the Arab community was a mother of 4 children and was one of the commanders of the Social Defence Forces. She was known among her friends as a self-sacrificing, humble labourer and a mother who was a comrade of hard times. Our comrade, who developed herself under the leadership of women, was educated and raised awareness of her own society with this knowledge. When the enemy attacked Manbij and the war intensified, when her children called her crying, our comrade Îman explained the situation to them in a beautiful language and told them that she and her friends should defend their land. With this determination, Commander Îman heroically resisted in the vicinity of the Qereqozak bridge and was martyred in an air attack by the occupying Turkish state.
Comrade Ayşe, a young child of Kurdish people, came from Lebanon and started living in Manbij. Although it had not been long since she arrived in Manbij, she visited all the institutions in the city with her curiosity, enthusiasm and excitement. She won a place in everyone's hearts with her modesty, cheerfulness and stance. In the HPC, our comrade Ayşe became a recognised fighter of the Revolutionary People's War. She was a pioneer who gathered Circassian, Arab and Kurdish girls around her in the hometown of Martyr Abû Leyla and Koçerîn and organised them with the idea of women's liberation.
DAANES today is an alliance between Kurdish and Arab forces. The progressive ideas of the Rojava Revolution are also making their way, albeit more slowly, among the Arab communities.
It is absolutely amazing that the Rojava Revolution has survived for so long in the face of such a host of enemies (Turkey, IS, the Assad regime, patriarchal attitudes, etc). That it has lasted so long in such a difficult political environment is a tribute both to the burning commitment and sacrifice of the people and the great skill of the leadership in negotiating a way forward.
The Rojava Revolution has not deviated from its path because of the US alliance but has continued to forge ahead with its project.
As opposed to all sorts of sectarians, the Socialist Alliance has put the overwhelming emphasis in our work on solidarity, and publicity and education about the achievements of the revolution. We have tried to inspire people about the whole project and what has been achieved in such a difficult situation. I think that has been the correct approach.
Is the SDF the oppressor of the Arab majority population? A section of the Arab population is allied with the Kurds and supports the SDF (which is majority Arab). The regime always used Arab chauvinism (Syria after all was the Syrian Arab Republic and its military was the Syrian Arab Army). It is probably true to say that a section of the Arab community is hostile to the DAANES, but I suspect it is a small section.
Here is one story that caught my eye. It is a powerful refutation of sectarian slanders.
Our comrades Îman and Ayşe, one of our women's defence forces, defended their society until the last moment in the resistance positions in Manbij and fell as martyrs on December 8, 2024 in the village of Qereqozak [near the bridge over the Euphrates] in an armed drone attack by the occupying Turkish state.
Our comrade Îman from the Arab community was a mother of 4 children and was one of the commanders of the Social Defence Forces. She was known among her friends as a self-sacrificing, humble labourer and a mother who was a comrade of hard times. Our comrade, who developed herself under the leadership of women, was educated and raised awareness of her own society with this knowledge. When the enemy attacked Manbij and the war intensified, when her children called her crying, our comrade Îman explained the situation to them in a beautiful language and told them that she and her friends should defend their land. With this determination, Commander Îman heroically resisted in the vicinity of the Qereqozak bridge and was martyred in an air attack by the occupying Turkish state.
Comrade Ayşe, a young child of Kurdish people, came from Lebanon and started living in Manbij. Although it had not been long since she arrived in Manbij, she visited all the institutions in the city with her curiosity, enthusiasm and excitement. She won a place in everyone's hearts with her modesty, cheerfulness and stance. In the HPC, our comrade Ayşe became a recognised fighter of the Revolutionary People's War. She was a pioneer who gathered Circassian, Arab and Kurdish girls around her in the hometown of Martyr Abû Leyla and Koçerîn and organised them with the idea of women's liberation.
DAANES today is an alliance between Kurdish and Arab forces. The progressive ideas of the Rojava Revolution are also making their way, albeit more slowly, among the Arab communities.
It is absolutely amazing that the Rojava Revolution has survived for so long in the face of such a host of enemies (Turkey, IS, the Assad regime, patriarchal attitudes, etc). That it has lasted so long in such a difficult political environment is a tribute both to the burning commitment and sacrifice of the people and the great skill of the leadership in negotiating a way forward.
The Rojava Revolution has not deviated from its path because of the US alliance but has continued to forge ahead with its project.
As opposed to all sorts of sectarians, the Socialist Alliance has put the overwhelming emphasis in our work on solidarity, and publicity and education about the achievements of the revolution. We have tried to inspire people about the whole project and what has been achieved in such a difficult situation. I think that has been the correct approach.
Join the Struggle to Defend the Women’s Revolution in Rojava and Build a Democratic Syria
By Kongra StarDecember 16, 2024Source: Kongra Star
For women and the peoples of Syria, the overthrow of the Assad dictatorship is an important development. If we prevent the former dictatorship from simply being replaced by another despotic regime then this new situation has opened the doors to a new process for the peoples of Syria and the entire region.
The nation-state project imposed on the peoples and societies of the Middle East after World War II has not solved any of its social problems. On the contrary, it has safeguarded the political, military and economic interests of international monopoly capital, while denying and destroying the will of the peoples, women and different cultures and religious groups. The nation-state project, built on the rejection of pluralism and diversity, on the foundation of sexism, nationalism, racism and state religionism, has turned the Middle East into a bloodbath today. Genocides and feminicides are used as tools of dividing-ruling policies by international and regional hegemonic powers, including the USA, Russia, Britain, Israel and Turkey. World War III is being directed, planned and implemented foremost by these actors.
Together with the fall of the Assad regime, the Turkish state, and affiliated SNA and the ISIS gangs, have increased their terrorist attacks in the region. Especially the invasion attacks against the regions of the Democratic Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria which are developing as part of the Turkish state’s genocidal plan against the Kurdish people. While Erdoğan hypocritically emphasizes the importance of the “territorial integrity of Syria”, the Turkish army is invading further in the regions of Northern Syria, neglecting the existence and the will of the Kurdish people and all other peoples of the region. Since the 27th of November 2024, hundred of thousands of people of the cantons Shahba, Manbij and Kobane have been forcibly displaced. Women, children and the elderly have died from hunger, disease and cold due to the inhumane attacks of the SNA gangs who have been trained and supported by the Turkish state. While the Turkish army has bombarded and killed civilians in Kobane and Ayn Issa; its mercenary gangs have abducted, tortured and massacred Kurdish people in Shahba, as well as three members of the Zenubya women’s movement in Manbij. At the same time HTS has massacred Christians in Damascus and Alawits in Latakia. The whereabouts of hundreds of people is still unclear. Women are the main target in the invasion attacks of the misogynist SNA, FSA and ISIS gangs. Massacres, torture and rape are carried out against women as if taking revenge for the Rojava revolution, and the defeat of ISIS by the resistance of women YPJ fighters. At the same time provocations and media warfare are implemented to destroy the unity of the peoples living in the region.
All these attacks target the accomplishments of the women’s revolution, and the Democratic Autonomous Administration which has been the guarantee of the democratic, equal and free life for all communities; for Kurdish, Arab, Armenian, Assyrian, Turkmen, Circassian, Chechen, Durzi, Alewit, Sunni, Christian and Ezidi women. Since 2012, the model of democratic autonomy jointly established and implemented by women, men and the youth of all communities, first in Rojava and then in other regions of North and East Syria, has proven that direct democracy and the active role of women in politics and all fields of life are essential for the peoples’ communal life and the resolution of social problems. For the first time in centuries, women in this region have been able to freely have an opinion, voice and action about their own lives. As women became free, the society changed and as the society changed, the hopes of the peoples to live together freely and equally grew even more. Commemorating the thousands of women who dedicated their lives to liberate this land from the occupation and terror of ISIS, we will continue our struggle with all our strength, no matter what the cost, to make the accomplishments of the Rojava women’s revolution permanent.
We will not allow the racist and sexist policies of international hegemonic powers and monopoly capital to redesign our region, our homeland and our lands on the basis of their own interests. We are confronted with the question of existence and non-existence – especially Kurdish, Armenian, Assyrian, Turkmen, Circassian, Chechen, Arab, Durzi, Ezidi, Beluci and Persian women. To avoid that the former dictatorship will be replaced another despotic regime, it is inevitable that all parts of society, all different ethnic, religious, political and cultural groups – and especially women – are involved in the construction of a new democratic system and constitution in Syria. The Syrian regime has fallen, but we also know that this collapse can be used by nefarious paramilitary & Islamist groups to endanger people’s lives, especially the lives of women & children. Women’s leadership is needed to protect us from conflict, occupation & invaders. In this respect, we believe that the experiences of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, as well as the experiences of the struggles for democracy, justice, cultural rights and women’s freedom could provide the basis for a new democratic Syria.
As Kongra Star, we see it as our historical responsibility to protect the Rojava women’s revolution and its accomplishments, which have been a source of hope and inspiration for women in the whole Middle East and other parts of the world. The women’s revolution in Rojava is not only the revolution of women in North and East Syria. It is a revolution realised with the direct or indirect contributions and struggles of millions of women all over the world. The current attacks are attacks against all of us. Considering the dimensions of the danger, it is also a historical responsibility for all women of the world, for international ecologist, feminist, socialist, democratic women’s movements to intensify and unite our struggles to defend the accomplishments of the Rojava women’s revolution.
Claiming the accomplishments of the Rojava women’s revolution, strenghtening our resistance and raising the struggle will guarantee our future in freedom and dignity.
As Kongra Star, we will continue our struggle and resistance at the highest level to defend our land and the revolution with the spirit and philosophy of Jin Jiyan Azadi.
Statement by Kongra Star, December 14, 2024
About Kongra Star:
Kongra Star is a confederal and democratic women’s organization. It’s focus is organizing, educating, and empowering women and struggling for women’s liberation and gender equality in all spheres of life. It was founded in 2005 under the name Yêkitiya Star (named for the ancient Mesopotamian goddess, Ishtar). Kongra Star is organizing in Rojava, Northern and Eastern Syria and generally throughout Syria. There are also Kongra Star offices in South Kurdistan (the Kurdish region of Iraq) , in Lebanon and in Europe.
Kongra Star is based on a paradigm of democracy, ecology and women’s liberation. It seeks to develop a free Rojava, a democratic Syria and a democratic Middle East by promoting women’s freedom and the concept of democratic nation. This means the people themselves becoming a nation through the development of autonomous institutions for self-defense, economy, law, society, diplomacy and culture, without relying on power and the state. Kongra Star is made up of Communes, Councils, Academies, Cooperatives and Committees. An overall congress is held every two years. There, all the organizations, groups and committees that make up Kongra Star gather, evaluate their work and make decisions for the future. There the committee members and the Kongra Star coordinators are elected.
When the women’s revolution began in Rojava on July 19, 2012, the women’s movement played a leading role. It challenges all forms and expressions of patriarchy and misogyny, struggles against colonialist, assimilationist, genocidal and capitalist practices and policies. With this, it defends the peaceful coexistence and democratic participation and representation of different ethnic and religious communities in social, political and cultural life.
Aims of Kongra Star:
Effective resistance to the patriarchal mindset, sexism and misogyny in all spheres of life and active efforts to democratize the family
Strengthening the democratic and peaceful coexistence of different ethnic and religious groups in Rojava and North East Syria by challenging ideologies like nationalism, sectarianism, or chauvinism
Protection, preservation and revitalization of cultures in the face of cultural genocide.
Contribution to and advocating for a political solution to the Kurdish question in Syria and equal rights for women in a future democratic Syria
Realizing women’s equal representation and participation in all decision-making processes and all political and social life through organization and empowerment of women starting at the grassroots level
Struggle against all forms of gender-based violence by strengthening women’s self-defense, consciousness raising and social justice mechanisms
Protecting and improving the rights of children
Protection of nature by building a social environmental consciousness against all destructive and nature-consuming practices of capitalist modernity.
Strengthening women’s participation in economic life, especially by developing autonomous and collective economic projects
In order to pursue its goals, Kongra Star has 12 committees to focus on areas of work. In all committees, various autonomous work and projects are developed.
The committees:
1- Education and Academies Committee
2- Social Committee
3- Political Committee
4- Diplomacy Committee
5- The Civil Defense Committee
6- Rights and Justice Committee
7- Communal Economy Committee
8- The Finance Committee
9- The Culture and Arts Committee
10 – Media Committee
11- Health Committee
12- Ecology Committee
ZNetwork is funded solely through the generosity of its readers. Donate
Kongra Star is a confederal and democratic women’s organization. It’s focus is organizing, educating, and empowering women and struggling for women’s liberation and gender equality in all spheres of life. It was founded in 2005 under the name Yêkitiya Star (named for the ancient Mesopotamian goddess, Ishtar). Kongra Star is organizing in Rojava, Northern and Eastern Syria and generally throughout Syria. There are also Kongra Star offices in South Kurdistan (the Kurdish region of Iraq) , in Lebanon and in Europe
By Kongra Star
For women and the peoples of Syria, the overthrow of the Assad dictatorship is an important development. If we prevent the former dictatorship from simply being replaced by another despotic regime then this new situation has opened the doors to a new process for the peoples of Syria and the entire region.
The nation-state project imposed on the peoples and societies of the Middle East after World War II has not solved any of its social problems. On the contrary, it has safeguarded the political, military and economic interests of international monopoly capital, while denying and destroying the will of the peoples, women and different cultures and religious groups. The nation-state project, built on the rejection of pluralism and diversity, on the foundation of sexism, nationalism, racism and state religionism, has turned the Middle East into a bloodbath today. Genocides and feminicides are used as tools of dividing-ruling policies by international and regional hegemonic powers, including the USA, Russia, Britain, Israel and Turkey. World War III is being directed, planned and implemented foremost by these actors.
Together with the fall of the Assad regime, the Turkish state, and affiliated SNA and the ISIS gangs, have increased their terrorist attacks in the region. Especially the invasion attacks against the regions of the Democratic Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria which are developing as part of the Turkish state’s genocidal plan against the Kurdish people. While Erdoğan hypocritically emphasizes the importance of the “territorial integrity of Syria”, the Turkish army is invading further in the regions of Northern Syria, neglecting the existence and the will of the Kurdish people and all other peoples of the region. Since the 27th of November 2024, hundred of thousands of people of the cantons Shahba, Manbij and Kobane have been forcibly displaced. Women, children and the elderly have died from hunger, disease and cold due to the inhumane attacks of the SNA gangs who have been trained and supported by the Turkish state. While the Turkish army has bombarded and killed civilians in Kobane and Ayn Issa; its mercenary gangs have abducted, tortured and massacred Kurdish people in Shahba, as well as three members of the Zenubya women’s movement in Manbij. At the same time HTS has massacred Christians in Damascus and Alawits in Latakia. The whereabouts of hundreds of people is still unclear. Women are the main target in the invasion attacks of the misogynist SNA, FSA and ISIS gangs. Massacres, torture and rape are carried out against women as if taking revenge for the Rojava revolution, and the defeat of ISIS by the resistance of women YPJ fighters. At the same time provocations and media warfare are implemented to destroy the unity of the peoples living in the region.
All these attacks target the accomplishments of the women’s revolution, and the Democratic Autonomous Administration which has been the guarantee of the democratic, equal and free life for all communities; for Kurdish, Arab, Armenian, Assyrian, Turkmen, Circassian, Chechen, Durzi, Alewit, Sunni, Christian and Ezidi women. Since 2012, the model of democratic autonomy jointly established and implemented by women, men and the youth of all communities, first in Rojava and then in other regions of North and East Syria, has proven that direct democracy and the active role of women in politics and all fields of life are essential for the peoples’ communal life and the resolution of social problems. For the first time in centuries, women in this region have been able to freely have an opinion, voice and action about their own lives. As women became free, the society changed and as the society changed, the hopes of the peoples to live together freely and equally grew even more. Commemorating the thousands of women who dedicated their lives to liberate this land from the occupation and terror of ISIS, we will continue our struggle with all our strength, no matter what the cost, to make the accomplishments of the Rojava women’s revolution permanent.
We will not allow the racist and sexist policies of international hegemonic powers and monopoly capital to redesign our region, our homeland and our lands on the basis of their own interests. We are confronted with the question of existence and non-existence – especially Kurdish, Armenian, Assyrian, Turkmen, Circassian, Chechen, Arab, Durzi, Ezidi, Beluci and Persian women. To avoid that the former dictatorship will be replaced another despotic regime, it is inevitable that all parts of society, all different ethnic, religious, political and cultural groups – and especially women – are involved in the construction of a new democratic system and constitution in Syria. The Syrian regime has fallen, but we also know that this collapse can be used by nefarious paramilitary & Islamist groups to endanger people’s lives, especially the lives of women & children. Women’s leadership is needed to protect us from conflict, occupation & invaders. In this respect, we believe that the experiences of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, as well as the experiences of the struggles for democracy, justice, cultural rights and women’s freedom could provide the basis for a new democratic Syria.
As Kongra Star, we see it as our historical responsibility to protect the Rojava women’s revolution and its accomplishments, which have been a source of hope and inspiration for women in the whole Middle East and other parts of the world. The women’s revolution in Rojava is not only the revolution of women in North and East Syria. It is a revolution realised with the direct or indirect contributions and struggles of millions of women all over the world. The current attacks are attacks against all of us. Considering the dimensions of the danger, it is also a historical responsibility for all women of the world, for international ecologist, feminist, socialist, democratic women’s movements to intensify and unite our struggles to defend the accomplishments of the Rojava women’s revolution.
Claiming the accomplishments of the Rojava women’s revolution, strenghtening our resistance and raising the struggle will guarantee our future in freedom and dignity.
As Kongra Star, we will continue our struggle and resistance at the highest level to defend our land and the revolution with the spirit and philosophy of Jin Jiyan Azadi.
Statement by Kongra Star, December 14, 2024
About Kongra Star:
Kongra Star is a confederal and democratic women’s organization. It’s focus is organizing, educating, and empowering women and struggling for women’s liberation and gender equality in all spheres of life. It was founded in 2005 under the name Yêkitiya Star (named for the ancient Mesopotamian goddess, Ishtar). Kongra Star is organizing in Rojava, Northern and Eastern Syria and generally throughout Syria. There are also Kongra Star offices in South Kurdistan (the Kurdish region of Iraq) , in Lebanon and in Europe.
Kongra Star is based on a paradigm of democracy, ecology and women’s liberation. It seeks to develop a free Rojava, a democratic Syria and a democratic Middle East by promoting women’s freedom and the concept of democratic nation. This means the people themselves becoming a nation through the development of autonomous institutions for self-defense, economy, law, society, diplomacy and culture, without relying on power and the state. Kongra Star is made up of Communes, Councils, Academies, Cooperatives and Committees. An overall congress is held every two years. There, all the organizations, groups and committees that make up Kongra Star gather, evaluate their work and make decisions for the future. There the committee members and the Kongra Star coordinators are elected.
When the women’s revolution began in Rojava on July 19, 2012, the women’s movement played a leading role. It challenges all forms and expressions of patriarchy and misogyny, struggles against colonialist, assimilationist, genocidal and capitalist practices and policies. With this, it defends the peaceful coexistence and democratic participation and representation of different ethnic and religious communities in social, political and cultural life.
Aims of Kongra Star:
Effective resistance to the patriarchal mindset, sexism and misogyny in all spheres of life and active efforts to democratize the family
Strengthening the democratic and peaceful coexistence of different ethnic and religious groups in Rojava and North East Syria by challenging ideologies like nationalism, sectarianism, or chauvinism
Protection, preservation and revitalization of cultures in the face of cultural genocide.
Contribution to and advocating for a political solution to the Kurdish question in Syria and equal rights for women in a future democratic Syria
Realizing women’s equal representation and participation in all decision-making processes and all political and social life through organization and empowerment of women starting at the grassroots level
Struggle against all forms of gender-based violence by strengthening women’s self-defense, consciousness raising and social justice mechanisms
Protecting and improving the rights of children
Protection of nature by building a social environmental consciousness against all destructive and nature-consuming practices of capitalist modernity.
Strengthening women’s participation in economic life, especially by developing autonomous and collective economic projects
In order to pursue its goals, Kongra Star has 12 committees to focus on areas of work. In all committees, various autonomous work and projects are developed.
The committees:
1- Education and Academies Committee
2- Social Committee
3- Political Committee
4- Diplomacy Committee
5- The Civil Defense Committee
6- Rights and Justice Committee
7- Communal Economy Committee
8- The Finance Committee
9- The Culture and Arts Committee
10 – Media Committee
11- Health Committee
12- Ecology Committee
ZNetwork is funded solely through the generosity of its readers. Donate
Kongra Star is a confederal and democratic women’s organization. It’s focus is organizing, educating, and empowering women and struggling for women’s liberation and gender equality in all spheres of life. It was founded in 2005 under the name Yêkitiya Star (named for the ancient Mesopotamian goddess, Ishtar). Kongra Star is organizing in Rojava, Northern and Eastern Syria and generally throughout Syria. There are also Kongra Star offices in South Kurdistan (the Kurdish region of Iraq) , in Lebanon and in Europe
Erdoğan’s Syria?
First published at NLR Sidecar.
Turkish pro-government circles are euphoric – not only because an Islamist-led coalition toppled the dictator they detested, but also because they believe that their president orchestrated the whole operation. In the earliest days of the Arab Spring, the AKP’s calculation was that the uprisings would produce a few governments that would adopt the ‘Turkish model’, combining conservative religion, formal democracy and neoliberal governance. Syria’s Islamists appeared to fit the bill. Yet after Assad’s violent crackdown against civilian protests made such a transition impossible, Turkey began to arm a series of rebel militias, joining Western powers, Russia and Iran in a race to militarize and sectarianize the conflict. This resulted in a de facto partitioning of the country into separate Shia, Sunni and Kurdish regions. At least four million Syrians crossed into Turkey, fueling anti-immigrant sentiment there. The stalemate appeared to be endless, until Islamist-led forces finally captured Damascus last week.
Since then, Islamist newspapers have hailed Erdoğan as the commander of the ‘Syrian Revolution’, ‘the Conqueror of Syria’ and ‘the greatest revolutionary of the 21st century’. While some on the Turkish right had begun to doubt the government’s Syria policy, holding it responsible for the refugee crisis, now the Erdoğanists seem vindicated. With Assad toppled, they are expecting both a domestic reconsolidation of power around the ruling AKP and a massive increase in Turkish influence across the region – with many announcing the effective end of Western control.
The opposition, by contrast, views the fall of Assad as the outcome of an American game in which Erdoğan and the jihadis were pawns. Whereas Erdoğanists anticipate a democratic and Islamic Syria under Turkish influence, Kemalists and other centrists fear its de jure partition and the emergence of a Kurdish state — for which they would blame Erdoğan. Over the past week, both sides have sought to amplify the evidence that supports their position and bury that which contradicts it. The real picture, however, is more complex. There is still significant uncertainty about who is calling the shots in Syria, and the most crucial information might take years to emerge. The following should therefore be read as an initial sketch of Turkey’s role in the events, subject to modification as new details come to light. But one thing is already certain at this early stage: though the balance of forces has shifted in Erdoğan’s favour for the time being, we can comfortably say that Erdoğanist fantasies about a Turkish imperial restructuring of the region are unfounded.
Turkey controls several armed factions in northern Syria, which are organized under the coalition known as the Syrian National Army (SNA, formerly the Free Syrian Army). Turkey’s hope is that the SNA will wipe out the American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces and subordinate the Syrian Kurds to an Islamic government in Damascus. Erdoğanists also wants to see SNA-affiliated officials in the post-Assad cabinet. However, Turkey’s impact on Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – the organization that led the advance on Damascus – is limited. During the first days of December, Turkey was having conversations with Russia and Iran with the apparent aim of ending hostilities rather than deposing Assad. Earlier, in mid-November, Erdoğan was making public calls for Assad to be included in some transitional regime. Far from masterminding the campaign, then, it looks as though Erdoğan was simply forced to give the greenlight after HTS took the initiative. SNA participated in the offensive but did not lead it. There are also reports of friction between the HTS and SNA, and even — tellingly — the arrest of some SNA cadres for abusing Kurdish civilians.
All this poses the question of what HTS really represents. With roots in the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra, and a place on Washington’s official list of terrorist groups, it seems an unlikely darling of the West. Yet the US and EU have made relatively optimistic noises about its seizure of Damascus, which has further unravelled the ‘Axis of Resistance’, weakening Iran’s regional role. In Turkey, opinion about the group is divided. The opposition is adamant that HTS is a creation of the US and Israel, while Erdoğanists insist that Turkey has armed and trained them over the last several years. Another rumor is that HTS was trained by British intelligence. Some experts claim that the assault on Damascus couldn’t have been successful without the involvement of Western intelligence agencies; others argue that those agencies were tricked or outflanked by HTS. Salih Muslim, a prominent Kurdish leader from the Democratic Union Party (PYD), meanwhile describes HTS as simply ‘a part of Syria’, with whom the Kurds would like to co-exist.
At this point, there is no way to know which of these narratives holds more water. But we cannot ignore the fact that Islamists have gained sympathy among the region’s peoples, some of whom perceive them as the only effective opposition to the status quo. Many on the left are ready to recognize this when it comes to Hamas; indeed, there is a certain tendency to exaggerate Hamas’s anti-imperialist credentials (even though its origins are anything but) while downplaying the popular appeal of most other Islamist outfits. Whoever the exact sponsors of HTS might be, the group is clearly an expression of a long-term trend: the mainstreaming and partial taming of jihadi organizations, their infiltration or capture of institutions, and their popularization. These three dynamics sometimes undermine each other, but the latest twist in the Syrian drama has seen them combine in the form of HTS.
In other words, regardless of the exact chain of events, there is no question that Islamism — and more specifically, its jihadi strands — has gained ground regionally. The Turkish opposition, including the left, insists that this is an American-friendly Islamism. Yet the fluctuations of Erdoğanism itself over the years show that there are risks for the West when it plays with fire in this way. The AKP was initially the paragon of Americanist Islam: it appeared to combine individual liberties, family values and religious conservatism with an emphasis on free markets and pro-Western realignment in the Middle East. However, as the years went on, it increasingly suspended individual liberties while harnessing markets, family and religion in the service of a party-state developmental model with grand regional ambitions, occasionally at the expense of American influence.
Hundreds of Israeli air strikes have taken place across Syria since Assad’s dethronement, and Netanyahu says that he intends to turn the Golan Heights into permanent Israeli territory. Whether or not he succeeds, Israel is poised to have more sway over the region, given its destruction of the military capacities of its northern rival — putting paid to Erdoğanist assumptions that the triumph of HTS represents a blow to Western power or ‘the end of Israeli expansionism’. It would be wrong, though, to predict the rise of total US–Israeli hegemony, if by that we mean an effective combination of force and consent, rather than domination based on brute violence. It is dubious that any real hegemon will emerge from this chaotic turn of events. Nor are we likely to see a free, democratic state or a conclusive partition. The most plausible scenario for the coming years is a protracted but perhaps relatively contained conflict, with increased Islamist and Erdoğanist military strength, diplomatic leadership and business expansion. That outcome would still be a win for Turkey, but it would fall well short of the current Erdoğanist fantasies.
The main danger for Turkish imperialism would be the growing formalization of Kurdish power. Any stable peace will have to involve autonomy or independence for the Syrian Kurds, now officially recognized by Western states. For the Kurds themselves, the consequences of this formalization would be ambiguous. They would no longer be the heroes of the global left, but they would also break free from their isolation and become a ‘normal’ part of the decaying international state-system. Turkish Kurds would meanwhile be left to their fate, while also being emboldened by the process of normalization to their south. The AKP (along with its neo-fascist partner, the MHP) reached out to the imprisoned guerilla leader Öcalan shortly before HTS launched its Aleppo campaign, which many commentators see as evidence that Turkey already knew about the anti-Assad operation. Yet the government also followed up this opening with a severe crackdown on the legal Kurdish party and elected mayors, indicating that any deal with Öcalan would be on the government’s terms — and would involve great losses for the movement as a whole.
For now, the Gulf monarchies are sidelined. Their recent bid for the rehabilitation of Assad, finally accepting Syria into the Arab League, has failed. But they will eventually enter this power game too, further complicating the attempts of any single actor, be it Turkey or the United States, to assert clear leadership. China, silent so far, may also join the fray, at least as a soft power. As more countries vie for influence, trying to reshape the region in their image, Turkey will see its maximalist ambitions evaporate.
There is also an economic dimension to the unfolding inter-imperialist rivalry. Syria has been devastated by proxy wars between several countries, which have not only taken half a million lives and displaced more than ten million, but also destroyed the country’s infrastructure and finances. Now, the potential for investment — to rebuild from the ruins — has whet the appetite of entrepreneurs across the world. Back in 2018, when Turkey lost 56 soldiers in a military operation, one of Erdoğan’s chief advisors famously remarked that ‘We are giving martyrs, but Turkish contractors will get a bigger share of the pie.’ The markets seem to agree, with the stocks of construction-related businesses rising sharply over the last few days.
It is not clear whether this kind of infrastructural investment can really take off, however, given the uncertain trajectory of the military conflicts, especially in the north and south of the country. The US and its allies have been able to destroy many of their regional enemies, but they have not been able to build functional, long-lasting arrangements of their own. Will the fall of Assad be any different? This remains to be seen. But we can be certain that where American liberal imperialism has failed, Turkish-Islamic imperialism is even less likely to succeed.
First published at NLR Sidecar.
Turkish pro-government circles are euphoric – not only because an Islamist-led coalition toppled the dictator they detested, but also because they believe that their president orchestrated the whole operation. In the earliest days of the Arab Spring, the AKP’s calculation was that the uprisings would produce a few governments that would adopt the ‘Turkish model’, combining conservative religion, formal democracy and neoliberal governance. Syria’s Islamists appeared to fit the bill. Yet after Assad’s violent crackdown against civilian protests made such a transition impossible, Turkey began to arm a series of rebel militias, joining Western powers, Russia and Iran in a race to militarize and sectarianize the conflict. This resulted in a de facto partitioning of the country into separate Shia, Sunni and Kurdish regions. At least four million Syrians crossed into Turkey, fueling anti-immigrant sentiment there. The stalemate appeared to be endless, until Islamist-led forces finally captured Damascus last week.
Since then, Islamist newspapers have hailed Erdoğan as the commander of the ‘Syrian Revolution’, ‘the Conqueror of Syria’ and ‘the greatest revolutionary of the 21st century’. While some on the Turkish right had begun to doubt the government’s Syria policy, holding it responsible for the refugee crisis, now the Erdoğanists seem vindicated. With Assad toppled, they are expecting both a domestic reconsolidation of power around the ruling AKP and a massive increase in Turkish influence across the region – with many announcing the effective end of Western control.
The opposition, by contrast, views the fall of Assad as the outcome of an American game in which Erdoğan and the jihadis were pawns. Whereas Erdoğanists anticipate a democratic and Islamic Syria under Turkish influence, Kemalists and other centrists fear its de jure partition and the emergence of a Kurdish state — for which they would blame Erdoğan. Over the past week, both sides have sought to amplify the evidence that supports their position and bury that which contradicts it. The real picture, however, is more complex. There is still significant uncertainty about who is calling the shots in Syria, and the most crucial information might take years to emerge. The following should therefore be read as an initial sketch of Turkey’s role in the events, subject to modification as new details come to light. But one thing is already certain at this early stage: though the balance of forces has shifted in Erdoğan’s favour for the time being, we can comfortably say that Erdoğanist fantasies about a Turkish imperial restructuring of the region are unfounded.
Turkey controls several armed factions in northern Syria, which are organized under the coalition known as the Syrian National Army (SNA, formerly the Free Syrian Army). Turkey’s hope is that the SNA will wipe out the American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces and subordinate the Syrian Kurds to an Islamic government in Damascus. Erdoğanists also wants to see SNA-affiliated officials in the post-Assad cabinet. However, Turkey’s impact on Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – the organization that led the advance on Damascus – is limited. During the first days of December, Turkey was having conversations with Russia and Iran with the apparent aim of ending hostilities rather than deposing Assad. Earlier, in mid-November, Erdoğan was making public calls for Assad to be included in some transitional regime. Far from masterminding the campaign, then, it looks as though Erdoğan was simply forced to give the greenlight after HTS took the initiative. SNA participated in the offensive but did not lead it. There are also reports of friction between the HTS and SNA, and even — tellingly — the arrest of some SNA cadres for abusing Kurdish civilians.
All this poses the question of what HTS really represents. With roots in the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra, and a place on Washington’s official list of terrorist groups, it seems an unlikely darling of the West. Yet the US and EU have made relatively optimistic noises about its seizure of Damascus, which has further unravelled the ‘Axis of Resistance’, weakening Iran’s regional role. In Turkey, opinion about the group is divided. The opposition is adamant that HTS is a creation of the US and Israel, while Erdoğanists insist that Turkey has armed and trained them over the last several years. Another rumor is that HTS was trained by British intelligence. Some experts claim that the assault on Damascus couldn’t have been successful without the involvement of Western intelligence agencies; others argue that those agencies were tricked or outflanked by HTS. Salih Muslim, a prominent Kurdish leader from the Democratic Union Party (PYD), meanwhile describes HTS as simply ‘a part of Syria’, with whom the Kurds would like to co-exist.
At this point, there is no way to know which of these narratives holds more water. But we cannot ignore the fact that Islamists have gained sympathy among the region’s peoples, some of whom perceive them as the only effective opposition to the status quo. Many on the left are ready to recognize this when it comes to Hamas; indeed, there is a certain tendency to exaggerate Hamas’s anti-imperialist credentials (even though its origins are anything but) while downplaying the popular appeal of most other Islamist outfits. Whoever the exact sponsors of HTS might be, the group is clearly an expression of a long-term trend: the mainstreaming and partial taming of jihadi organizations, their infiltration or capture of institutions, and their popularization. These three dynamics sometimes undermine each other, but the latest twist in the Syrian drama has seen them combine in the form of HTS.
In other words, regardless of the exact chain of events, there is no question that Islamism — and more specifically, its jihadi strands — has gained ground regionally. The Turkish opposition, including the left, insists that this is an American-friendly Islamism. Yet the fluctuations of Erdoğanism itself over the years show that there are risks for the West when it plays with fire in this way. The AKP was initially the paragon of Americanist Islam: it appeared to combine individual liberties, family values and religious conservatism with an emphasis on free markets and pro-Western realignment in the Middle East. However, as the years went on, it increasingly suspended individual liberties while harnessing markets, family and religion in the service of a party-state developmental model with grand regional ambitions, occasionally at the expense of American influence.
Hundreds of Israeli air strikes have taken place across Syria since Assad’s dethronement, and Netanyahu says that he intends to turn the Golan Heights into permanent Israeli territory. Whether or not he succeeds, Israel is poised to have more sway over the region, given its destruction of the military capacities of its northern rival — putting paid to Erdoğanist assumptions that the triumph of HTS represents a blow to Western power or ‘the end of Israeli expansionism’. It would be wrong, though, to predict the rise of total US–Israeli hegemony, if by that we mean an effective combination of force and consent, rather than domination based on brute violence. It is dubious that any real hegemon will emerge from this chaotic turn of events. Nor are we likely to see a free, democratic state or a conclusive partition. The most plausible scenario for the coming years is a protracted but perhaps relatively contained conflict, with increased Islamist and Erdoğanist military strength, diplomatic leadership and business expansion. That outcome would still be a win for Turkey, but it would fall well short of the current Erdoğanist fantasies.
The main danger for Turkish imperialism would be the growing formalization of Kurdish power. Any stable peace will have to involve autonomy or independence for the Syrian Kurds, now officially recognized by Western states. For the Kurds themselves, the consequences of this formalization would be ambiguous. They would no longer be the heroes of the global left, but they would also break free from their isolation and become a ‘normal’ part of the decaying international state-system. Turkish Kurds would meanwhile be left to their fate, while also being emboldened by the process of normalization to their south. The AKP (along with its neo-fascist partner, the MHP) reached out to the imprisoned guerilla leader Öcalan shortly before HTS launched its Aleppo campaign, which many commentators see as evidence that Turkey already knew about the anti-Assad operation. Yet the government also followed up this opening with a severe crackdown on the legal Kurdish party and elected mayors, indicating that any deal with Öcalan would be on the government’s terms — and would involve great losses for the movement as a whole.
For now, the Gulf monarchies are sidelined. Their recent bid for the rehabilitation of Assad, finally accepting Syria into the Arab League, has failed. But they will eventually enter this power game too, further complicating the attempts of any single actor, be it Turkey or the United States, to assert clear leadership. China, silent so far, may also join the fray, at least as a soft power. As more countries vie for influence, trying to reshape the region in their image, Turkey will see its maximalist ambitions evaporate.
There is also an economic dimension to the unfolding inter-imperialist rivalry. Syria has been devastated by proxy wars between several countries, which have not only taken half a million lives and displaced more than ten million, but also destroyed the country’s infrastructure and finances. Now, the potential for investment — to rebuild from the ruins — has whet the appetite of entrepreneurs across the world. Back in 2018, when Turkey lost 56 soldiers in a military operation, one of Erdoğan’s chief advisors famously remarked that ‘We are giving martyrs, but Turkish contractors will get a bigger share of the pie.’ The markets seem to agree, with the stocks of construction-related businesses rising sharply over the last few days.
It is not clear whether this kind of infrastructural investment can really take off, however, given the uncertain trajectory of the military conflicts, especially in the north and south of the country. The US and its allies have been able to destroy many of their regional enemies, but they have not been able to build functional, long-lasting arrangements of their own. Will the fall of Assad be any different? This remains to be seen. But we can be certain that where American liberal imperialism has failed, Turkish-Islamic imperialism is even less likely to succeed.
Syria’s popular revolution and the extraordinary collapse of Assad’s genocidal regime
First published at Their Anti-Imperialism and Ours.
The lightning victories of the Syrian rebel coalition over the Assad regime forces in northwest Syria over a vast area — followed in quick succession by equally rapid victories first in Hama and Homs in central Syria, then the uprisings in southern Daraa and Suweida and the collapse of the regime in Damascus itself, all within ten days — demonstrated the complete hollowness of the regime, based as it was on little more than naked military and police violence. The subsequent revelation to the world of the real level of horror in the Sednaya ‘slaughterhouse’ demonstrates the breathtaking reality of this (one is reminded of Tuol Sleng and Auschwitz). Regime defences simply collapsed everywhere, the rebels facing neither popular nor military resistance.
The Aleppo offensive
Within a day or so of the offensive launched on November 27, the rebels had not only taken vast areas of rural eastern and southern Idlib and western and southern Aleppo, but most of Aleppo city as well; even in the 2012-2016 period, the rebels only ever controlled half the city. By contrast, it had taken large-scale regime, Russian and Iranian offensives, with airpower, missiles and overwhelming military power, several years to conquer the half-city from the rebels. They then advanced south into northern Hama province, where it is now contesting the regime for Hama city.
Syrian social media accounts are full of scenes of joy as political prisoners are released and people return to their towns and homes they were expelled from. Former mayor of East Aleppo Hagi Hassan writes, stressing the humanitarian aspects of the liberation, “The city’s liberation is allowing tens of thousands of families to return home after years of forced exile. These families, who lived in camps without essential needs, can now find a more stable and dignified life. … Hundreds of thousands of Syrians are still trapped in the regime’s jails, suffering unimaginable atrocities. The release of Aleppo has allowed the release of hundreds of prisoners, including women and children, marking an important step towards justice.” Fadel Abdul Ghany, of the Syrian Network of Human Rights, claimed that among the detainees and forcibly disappeared people who have been released were some who have been detained for 13 years, “and in one case a detainee that had spent 33 years in prison.”
According to Hassan Hassan and Michael Weiss, “events so far suggest HTS [the leading rebel faction] is behaving pragmatically. Its militants were dispatched right away to safeguard banks from looting. On the first night of its occupation, HTS turned off the electricity for factories, thereby affording civilian residences 16 hours of uninterrupted power, something they haven’t enjoyed since 2012. Similarly, Kareem Shaheen writes of “fascinating messages from Christian family/friends in Aleppo about the restoration of electricity and water, garbage collection (apparently the rebels are paying garbage collectors a 1.5 million SYP wage), bread everywhere, active market.”
Hagi Hassan also claims that “for the first time in years, the city knows some security. Infrastructure has been preserved, public institutions are functioning, and no civil rights violations have been reported since liberation,” stressing that “the military forces that have entered Aleppo have not committed any violations against civilians,” but rather, “they ensured their safety.” Another Syrian reporting from Aleppo, Marcelle Shehwaro, claims there have been violations, though “despite extensive networking around this issue, I’ve only been able to document three violations,” one an infamous Christmas tree incident, though she reports more serious violations between another rebel coalition, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
More seriously, Shehwaro noted that, apart from fear of regime and Russian airstrikes, the main fear at present is gun-related chaos, caused by the release of criminal prisoners in the rush to open jails to release political prisoners. However, she reports that “a complaints hotline was activated, and it appears the operations management room is taking this seriously so far. But this is far from a utopia.”
Importantly, she stresses regarding the head-scarf, given the radical Islamist ideology of some of the groups involved, “there are incidents happening related to being told, 'Put a scarf on your head'. However, the scale is still very limited (compared to what might be expected). Wearing a hijab hasn’t yet become customary (and may God strengthen the women of Aleppo so it doesn’t become the norm). For now, women are still walking in the streets without hijabs — not as isolated acts of courage or rebellion, but simply because that’s how they dress.” However, she also stresses there should be no complacency on this.
She emphasises that both “alarmist narratives” and “reassuring narratives” should be avoided. This is sensible nuance for any such situation. Revolutions are typically depicted as unmitigated bloodbaths, or as heroic, romanticised utopias. No revolution in history has been one or the other. And from all the above, and more below, what I want to stress here is precisely that this is a revolution, a revival of the Syrian revolution which many considered crushed, warts and all, not simply a “military conquest by Islamists” as some have depicted.
Hagi Hassan notes that “Yes, Hayat Tahrir al-Cham [HTS] is present, but the true liberators of the city are its inhabitants, its youth who, exiled children, returned today as adults to liberate their city from the yoke of oppression.” Shehwaro also stresses the role of ordinary people:
The grassroots Syrian effort is remarkable. Aleppo is boiling, inside and out. From bread to communications, burial initiatives, pressing the military to take responsibility for every issue that impacts civilians, supporting organizations, bolstering the Civil Defense’s presence in Aleppo, and tracking the conditions of children—there is extraordinary grassroots effort.
On December 1, an example of such a popular initiative was the Initiative “ People of Aleppo for the sake of the Homeland,” which congratulated the Syrian people for being freed from the regime, but made a list of people’s requests including advising “the brothers in military factions to fully discipline the instructions” of their leaders “not to engage in any violation,” recommending “the brothers in military factions to adhere to military fronts, cord holes, military barracks, and complete ban of any armed appearance among civilians,” while calling for “forming a civil administration from Aleppo’s competencies as a transition stage in preparation for the elections.”
As if on cue, on December 4 HTS commander Abu Mohammed al-Jolani stated that “the city will be administered by a transitional body. All armed fighters, including HTS members, will be directed to leave civilian areas in the coming weeks, and government employees will be invited to resume their work.”
Jolani even suggested that that HTS may dissolve itself “in order to enable the full consolidation of civilian and military structures in new institutions that reflect the breadth of Syrian society.”
The rebel operations room also announced a total amnesty for Syrian regime troops, police and security forces in Aleppo, calling on them to submit their paperwork to receive their official clemency and identification cards.
And the surprise is that, after years of brutal suppression of the revolution, after the regime’s genocidal bloodbath of hundreds of thousands of people and its destruction of its own country with its airforce, after the degree of cooption of the popular uprising – either by the Turkish regime or by the hard-Islamist HTS now leading this operation – that such repression inevitably led to, we might have expected the results of a new offensive to be more retrograde, with more violations, more bloody, more divisive, than in the past. Yet so far, we can say that there were far, far more violations by rebel groups in Aleppo in the past compared to what is ensuing at present.
An aside: The question of return
Before going on to look at the rebel forces involved, and then the wider geopolitical framework, it is worth looking at the question of “return” of thousands, and perhaps soon hundreds of thousands, to their homes, which was touched on above.
The population in the opposition-controlled northwest consists of 5.1 million people, of whom 3.6 million have been displaced from other parts of Syria, including 2 million living in camps This is in addition to at least 6.5 million Syrian refugees in exile – almost one third of Syria’s pre-war population – of whom 3.7 million are just across the border in Turkey. Without being solved, this massive Syrian refugee population promises to become an ongoing geopolitical issue as surely as its Palestinian refugee counterpart is.
If we just consider the 7 million plus displaced Syrians in northwest Syria or Turkey (and not even the millions in Lebanon and Jordan), they come from all parts of Syria, including from a string of Sunni-majority towns around Damascus in the south that were ethnically cleansed via starvation sieges in 2015-17, but also from these very regions now being liberated in Idlib and Aleppo provinces, especially after the regime and Russia reconquered about half of these provinces from the opposition in 2018-2020, leading the population to flee. Now, as a result of this current offensive, all the historic revolutionary towns of the region – Saraqib, Maraat Al-Nouman, Khan Sheikun, KafrNabl – which were captured by the regime in this final stage, have been liberated.
Even for those most cynical of the current HTS leadership of the offensive, what we need to recognise is that this has the potential to be a Gigantic March of Return.
Who was involved
The offensive beginning on November 27 is being carried out by a wide coalition of rebel groups under the Military Operations Command, which arose from the Fath al-Mubeen Operations Room in Idlib. The leading force is the hard-line Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), while the other two major components are the National Front for Liberation (NFL) and Jaish al-Izzeh, both of which are independent ‘secular-nationalist’ Free Syrian Army (FSA) brigades, while the Islamist factions Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Shamiya also joined the offensive.
According to the New Arab, “participation of fighters from the secular nationalist Syrian National Army (SNA) factions, which is closely aligned with Turkey,” has been confirmed, but “while the SNA has supported the operation rhetorically, it has not officially confirmed its participation, which is likely due to the influence of Turkey.” That was written before the SNA did step in on November 30 with its own ‘Dawn of Freedom’ operations room (of which, more below), which at the outset was aimed more at the Kurdish-led SDF forces in northern Aleppo than at the regime.
Very broadly, we may divide the rebel groups in this region into three broad categories: HTS itself, which has become the dominant force in Idlib, and which dominates the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG); the factions of the SNA closest to Turkey, including both secular-nationalist and Islamist factions, which is dominant in parts of northern Aleppo province near the Turkish border, and which dominates the Syrian Interim Government (SIG); and organisations like Jaysh al-Izza which are independent, while the NFL, Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Shamiya have operated both as allies to the HTS-led command and as loose members or allies of the SNA, while maintaining operational independence.
Overwhelmingly, people join these groups not due to some ideological affiliation, which is more an obsession of western leftists, but to defend their liberated towns and regions from encroachment by the genocidal dictatorship. Who they join depends more on who is dominant in a certain region and thus can better effectively defend that region, who has money to pay wages and for better weaponry and so on. These people are mostly fighting in support of the original aims of the revolution, ie the overthrow of the dictatorship and the institution of a democratic Syria for all. What this means in practice is that, while the politics of the leaderships are not irrelevant, they are also not set in stone; to an extent they reflect the ideals and pressures of their fighting base.
And in a revolutionary situation such as this, many of these divisions break down again, are reconstituted along different lines; leaderships will try to dominate, but their need to keep leadership in a revolutionary struggle also means they will be carried by it. As seen above, popular initiatives play a big role. Even the question of government may end up having little to do with the two ‘governments’ discussed above which have ruled so long in their besieged de-facto statelets.
For example, one resident returning to the northern Aleppo town Tel Rifaat after “a forced absence of around 3205 days” was asked whether the town now will be run by the SSG or the SIG, after being liberated by “many of the Free Army’s factions.” He responded that “the people of the town of Tel Refaat have prior administrative experience, and they elect their council through a general commission composed of all the town’s families. This council administers the town’s affairs, whatever its affiliation.”
On the nature of HTS
Many observers are understandably nervous about both HTS, an authoritarian Islamist group which many years ago was affiliated with al-Qaida, and the SNA, given its control by Turkey and Turkey’s anti-Kurdish policy. There is no question that as a result of being bombed for years, driven into a corner, overwhelmed with displaced from all over Syria, and with virtually no support from anywhere in the world, the civil and military formations of the Syrian revolution have been heavily co-opted for years now, especially since the heavy defeats from 2018 onwards. In fact, all the famous revolution-held towns run by popular councils that continually resisted encroachment by HTS, such as Maraat al-Nuuman, Saraqeb, Karanbel, Atareb and others, were overrun by Assad in the final 2019-2020 offensives, removing important strength from the more independent sectors of the revolution.
People need to survive; and they need protection from the regime. Fighters need wages to feed their families. Western leftists often discuss these issues as if it were a market for different socialist and anarchist ideas on a western campus; it couldn’t be more different. In fact, there is much evidence that many of the fighters in HTS’s ranks today were previously fighters in FSA brigades that its predecessor, Jabhat al-Nusra, crushed at various times — they may not like it, but they still need to fight to regime. Nusra’s forces never constituted any more than 10 percent of the rebels’ armed forces; yet now HTS is overwhelmingly dominant, meaning the bulk of HTS fighters had no past in Nusra or al-Qaida.
HTS’s own rule in Idlib has been mixed to say the least. The leading cadre of HTS are mostly derived from the former Jabhat al-Nusra, which in 2012-2016 was affiliated to al-Qaida, a relationship it severed that year, before moving on to form HTS as a coalition with a number of other Islamist groups. On the whole, its rule is seen as repressive, if effective, but in practice this has gone back and forth. It has adopted a number of pragmatic positions, both in theory and in practice (eg in relation to social restrictions) since leaving the jihadist cloak behind. Part of this is simply due to the needs to running technocratic government effectively. On the whole HTS has tended not to use repression against popular protest, but it has been quite repressive against political opposition, probably more so than any other rebel group.
According to a recent report on Syria by the UN Human Rights Council:
Starting in February [2024], unprecedentedly large protests, led by civilian activists and supported by military and religious figures, spread across HTS areas. Protestors called for the release of political and security detainees, for governance and socioeconomic reforms and for the removal of HTS leader Abu Mohammad Al-Julani. Demonstrations were triggered by reports of torture and ill-treatment of detainees by the HTS general security service, following months of arrest campaigns by HTS targeting their own members, as well as members of other armed groups and political parties, such as Hizb al-Tahrir.
It notes that Jolani acknowledged the use of “prohibited and severe means of pressure on the detainees” and “pledged to investigate and to hold those responsible accountable.” It also noted that while demonstrations mostly proceeded without HTS state violence used against them, later HTS did begin using force against them.
Despite repressive rule and co-optation by both governments, the populations have engaged in mass popular demonstrations both against Turkey and against HTS at different times, suggesting that, while militarily defeated, the revolutionary masses still believe they have something to fight for and remain committed to the ideals which they rose up for in 2011. Indeed, while some of the demonstrations against HTS were simply against its attempt to impose its rule over areas it does not control, or against its repressive actions, others were against HTS attempting to open a trade connection with the regime; and similarly, the demonstrations against Turkey were against the growing convergence between Erdogan and Assad as they move to ‘bury the hatchet’. And now, just as repression and siege can lead to such co-optation, new revolutionary advances can again liberate popular energies.
It may well be that one of the secondary reasons for the offensive was indeed for HTS to attempt to break out of this increasing unpopularity. If so, there can be no doubt that the offensive has been massively popular, above all by allowing hundreds of thousands to return to their homes.
HTS overtures to Christians, Druze, Shiites, Alawites and Kurds
With this hardline past, it might therefore come as a surprise that HTS has actually come out with some very positive overtures towards the populations in the regions it is advancing into, and towards minority groups in particular, towards religious minorities – Christians, Druze, Shiites and even Alawites – and the ethnic Kurdish minority, despite previously bad relations with all five.
As the rebels advanced towards Aleppo, Jolani addressed his troops:
We urge you to show mercy, kindness and gentleness towards the people in the city of Aleppo. Let your top priority be the preservation of their properties and lives, as well as ensuring the security of the city. Do not cut down trees, frighten children, or instil fear in our people of all sects [emphasis added]. Aleppo has always been – and continues to be – a crossroads of civilisations and cultures, with a long history of cultural and religious diversity. It is the heritage and present of all Syrians. Today is a day of compassion; whoever enters their home, closes their door, and refrains from hostility is safe. Whoever declares their defection from the criminal regime, lays down their weapon, and surrenders to the revolutionaries is also safe.
This sounds nothing like the old Nusra, or like any kind of ‘Sunni jihadist’ organisation. Neither does the following declaration from Bashir Ali, Head of the Directorate of Minority Affairs, Department of Political Affairs, of the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), made as the rebels advanced:
As many regions are liberated from the criminal regime, I want to assure all minorities, including Christians, that their lives, property, places of worship and freedoms will be protected. … This is your city too, and you are free to stay and live here in freedom and dignity, knowing that your safety and rights are a priority to us just as all other Syrians.
The Department issued another statement aimed specifically at two Shiite villages of Nubl and al-Zahara, to the north of Aleppo city:
Out of faith on our part in the principles of the Syrian revolution that are based on justice and dignity, we affirm the necessity of protecting civilians and guarding their property and lives. In this context, we emphasise that the people of the localities of Nubl and al-Zahara’, like other Syrian civilians, must not be targeted or threatened in any way on the basis of sect or ethnic affiliation. We also call on the people of Nubl and al-Zahara’, and all the Syrian regions, not to stand alongside the criminal regime and aid it in killing the Syrian people and deepening its humanitarian suffering.
Traditionally, Sunni jihadists like Nusra saw other Muslim sects like Shiites and Alawites as worse than Christians and Jews, as they were considered apostates in Islam; this statement was therefore very significant. Given the extreme divisions from the past (caused by both sides) however, it appears that many of the Shia in these two towns decided to leave, but those that have stayed are reporting that there has been no looting or revenge attacks by the rebels.
Perhaps even more stunning for a formation arising from a Sunni jihadist background, on December 5 HTS issued a statement proclaiming the Alawites to be an indispensable part of Syrian society, calling on them to abandon the Assad regime which it claims “hijacked” the Alawites to conduct a sectarian battle against the opposition.
As the rebel offensive was approaching victory, Alawite leaders responded in kind:
Given that the regime, during its years of rule, has regularly sought to prevent any form of societal representation of the Alawite sect, we, the sons of this sect in the city of Homs, renew our call at this critical stage:
First, we address our call to the revolutionary forces entering the city of Homs. We call on you to maintain civil peace and protect all societal components in the city with all their different spectra. We also urge you to spare the city of Homs, which has been exhausted by violence, from entering a new round of revenge, and to work to preserve public and private property. We hope that you will show the responsibility that you have shown in many cities that you have previously entered, to be an example to be followed in strengthening the unity of the national fabric.
Secondly, we address our Alawite sect in the city, calling on them to beware of being drawn into the false propaganda and plots that the regime has been spreading with the aim of sowing fear and terror among you. We stress the need for you to stay in your homes, and not to allow the regime to use you again as fuel for a battle that it has in fact been losing since the first day of this revolution.
Homs was and will remain a symbol of diversity and civil coexistence, and today, as we are on the verge of its liberation, we aspire for it to become a model to be emulated in affirming the unity of the Syrian people and their ability to overcome the wounds of the painful past.
Long live a free and proud Syria.’ December 6, 2024 – Homs Media Center
So far, reports from the ground suggest there have been very few violations, though of course some are inevitable in any war. Aleppo’s churches have continued their services and celebrations as normal this past week.
However, as Syrian Christian Fadi Hallisso returning to Aleppo notes regarding the fears of many Christians, the assurances that the Islamic dress code will not be imposed on them and that there is no threat to their churches are “not helping at all,” because he claims, these are not the main concerns of Christians, but rather the fear of becoming second-class citizens in a new “Ottoman millet” system. Interestingly, Hallisso states that “the only way to reassure Christians in these circumstances is for Aleppo to be run by a civilian administration of the city’s notables after all armed groups retreat from the city” – ie, precisely what has just been announced by the rebel leadership.
The Arab-Kurdish issue in the current conflict
Marcelle Shehwaro claims that “ the Arab-Kurdish situation is catastrophic” and that “the polarization is costing lives, displacement, and a lack of any civil structure with even a minimal level of mutual trust.” She blames both “sniper fire from the SDF that claims civilian lives daily,” and “displacement, abuse, and violations [of Kurds] by the National Army [SNA].” It is very important here to distinguish the SNA from HTS.
As the HTS-led coalition approached Aleppo, Turkiye initially ordered the SNA not to take part. This is likely because if Turkiye gave any green light to the offensive (see below), the aim was for a limited operation in the Idlib/Aleppo countryside to pressure Assad; by all accounts, Turkiye was as blindsided as everyone by the speed of the fall of the city. But when the city did fall to the rebels, the SDF moved into some eastern and northern parts of Aleppo that the regime had fled from, which then linked up Aleppo to the SDF-controlled Rojava statelet in northeast Syria, obviously not Turkiye’s plan.
Therefore, Turkiye the next day sent in the SNA with its own ‘Dawn of Freedom’ operation, which began seizing territory from the SDF — it is important to underline that this was an SNA, not an HTS, action, and should not be confused with the main rebel operation. This demonstrated Turkiye’s anti-Kurdish priorities (though the SNA has also since taken former Assadist territory).
However, even with the SNA’s anti-Kurdish policy, it is not as simple as “Turkey-SNA attacking the Kurds,” as much media, and the SDF, suggest, although there clearly have been violations. The problem is that the main areas of northern Aleppo province that the SNA first seized from the SDF – around the Tel Rifaat region – were not Kurdish regions at all, but Arab-majority regions which the SDF had dishonourably conquered from the rebels in early 2016 with Russian airforce backing, uprooting 100,000 people who have been living in tents in Azaz to the north ever since! For the tens of thousands of expelled residents, this is now a homecoming. However again, even this reality is altered by the fact that two years later, in 2018, Turkiye conquered Kurdish Afrin, northwest of Aleppo, so much of the Kurdish population there fled to these now empty homes in Tel Rifaat, and it is now these people having to flee again.
It is striking that HTS — a former jihadist group which, when its core was Nusra, tended to engage in conflict with the SDF more than any other rebel group — is now engaged in “back-channel dialogue and negotiations with the SDF” which are “ far more constructive and effective than with the SNA itself.”
According to a Syria Weekly special edition, “reports continue to emerge that HTS personnel are intervening against SNA abuses — detaining SNA fighters and taking over local security, at the request of community notables.” Then on December 3, the SNA condemned HTS for their “aggressive behaviour” against SNA members, while HTS has accused SNA fighters of looting.
On December 1, HTS issued a statement telling the SDF that HTS’ fight was against the Syrian regime, not the SDF, promising to ensure the safety of Aleppo’s Kurds, and describing the Kurds as “an integral part of the diverse Syrian identity” who “have full rights to live in dignity and freedom,” calling on them to remain in Aleppo; notably also is HTS’s condemnation of “ the barbaric practices committed by ISIS against the Kurds.”
HTS then called on the SDF to withdraw from Aleppo, promising to take care of civilians in the Kurdish-held neighborhoods, and offering safe passage to the SDF fighters, possibly to avert an SNA-SDF clash; and the SDF quietly withdrew from the parts of Aleppo it had taken, while remaining in the actual Kurdish-populated regions it had long controlled in Aleppo city, Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh, where they have the support of the population. Any attempt to drive them from here would be a massive violation. At the time of writing, the SDF still controls these two neighbourhoods, and much of the population has also remained.
Background: The evolution of HTS on minority issues
I do not include all these quotes in order to suggest HTS will necessarily live up to all this, the future simply cannot be known; and the concerns that many Syrians have, including many who are ecstatic about the fall of the regime, are absolutely justified (indeed, some point precisely to what happened after the Iranian revolution of 1979). Rather, the fact that HTS found it necessary to issue these statements is evidence at least of understanding what a revolutionary situation requires of it. The fact that so far it has been living up to this in practice is a very encouraging sign. Rather than declare in advance either that HTS will throw off all this “re-badging” once it has power and return to its dark past, or that it will surely lead a democratic utopia, it is better to cautiously watch and hope that the spread of the revolution continues to dilute HTS power and older HTS ideology; the broader it is, the more difficult it would be for a militia to put popular power back into a box.
However, the discourse stating that HTS is only saying all these things now to “re-badge” for western consumption to be taken off western “terrorism” lists and so on has the problem that very significant changes in relation to minorities have been taking place for a number of years now in Idlib. The oppression of the Druze minority under Nusra rule for example was particularly appalling; they were basically subjected a program of forced Sunnification, one of the ugliest features of Nusra rule.
However, as well-informed Syria-watcher Gregory Waters explains:
… the SSG has spent more than six years engaging with both the Christian and Druze communities in Idlib. An independent, region-wide administrative body was created to serve as a focal point for all communities, including those of minorities. Gradually, this body worked to address complaints and return the homes and farmland that had been seized by a variety of opposition groups in past years. This author has met with some of these community leaders, who told him that, while slow, significant progress has been made for their community in relation to security, property rights, economy, and religious discourse.
This stepped up in 2022, when Jolani visited the Druze centre, Jabal al-Summaq, after which HTS began returning homes and land earlier seized; and visited Christian residents of Quniya, Yaqoubiya, and Jadida, which was followed by the reopening of the St. Anne Church in Yaqoubiya village, for the first time since the rebels entered Idlib in 2015, attended by dozens of people, and then another large mass at the Armenian Apostolic Church, a decade after it was closed.
Just as surprising has been HTS’s outreach to the Kurdish community. After taking over the Kurdish region of Afrin in 2022 from the SNA, HTS declared that it “confirms that the Arab and Kurdish people… or the displaced are the subject of our attention and appreciation, and we warn them against listening to the factional interests… We specifically mention the Kurdish brothers; they are the people of those areas and it is our duty to protect them and provide services to them.”
While this may sound like rhetoric, in March 2023, HTS confronted the SNA after five Kurdish civilians were killed by members of a Turkish-backed faction during a Nowruz celebration in the town of Jenderes. Jolani met with the residents and HTS forces deployed in the town and seized control of headquarters of the military police and the SNA’s Eastern Army, which was accused of the killings.
This outreach has even proceeded to discussions with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), HTS hosting several delegations from Hassakeh in 2023. An agreement for the SDF to supply oil to HTS-controlled refineries was reached (the SDF already has a large-scale agreement of this kind with the regime). Intriguingly, HTS also proposed participating in the SDF’s anti-ISIS fight, and for the establishment of a joint civilian administration between HTS and the SDF if HTS could gain control of areas currently held by the SNA!
Apart from the needs of technocratic government getting the better of ideology, the evolution of HTS’s Kurdish policy was also partly driven by its rivalry and clash of perspectives with the Turkish-backed SNA. As Turkey’s priorities turned more to confronting the SDF in Syria, it held back the rebels it controlled from confronting the Assad regime, and continually made overtures to the regime for a joint war against the SDF as a basis for restoring relations. HTS however, whatever its past clashes with the SDF, and also the more independent FSA militia groups, continued to see the conflict with the regime as having priority, and were furious with Turkiye’s attempts to reconcile with the regime. This created a cautious, low-level convergence between HTS and SDF priorities.
Why now? ‘Deterring’ regime’s year-long ‘aggression’ waited for Lebanon ceasefire
This offensive did not come out of the blue; by all accounts, the rebels have been planning this for up to a year. However, there was little expectation their offensive would be so successful; the name of the offensive — Operation Deter the Aggression — instead informs us of the original aim: to push back against over a year of renewed aggression, mostly by regime and Russian bombing, against the opposition-controlled regions of Idlib and Aleppo provinces in the northwest.
However, surprised by the rapidity of regime collapse, the aims then widened, to liberating as much territory from the regime as possible.
From the onset of Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza, the Assad regime, while maintaining complete quiet on its southern frontier with the Israeli-occupied Golan, used the cover of Gaza to step up the slaughter of opposition-controlled Idlib right from the start, a stunning example of this part of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ lacking a compass. According to the Syria Response Coordinators, “ 266 educational facilities in northwestern Syria have been put out of service over the past three years,” with attacks on schools sharply increasing over the last year, with 43 attacks between September 2023 and November 2024.
All this time, people in opposition-controlled Idlib and Aleppo have continually demonstrated in support of Gaza, with ongoing protests, seminars, donation drives etc Gaza (while the Assad regime bans pro-Palestine demonstrations). Assadist “resistance” to the Zionist onslaught was apparently carried out against this extremely pro-Palestine population of the northwest, demonstrating one of numerous examples of the use of phoney “resistance” language by repressive and reactionary regimes who in reality have no interest whatsoever in “resisting” Israel’s genocidal campaign.
This Assad-Putin war against the northwest actually escalated at precisely the time Israel turned northwards and began smashing up Hezbollah and Lebanon. In early October, Russian airstrikes on Idlib killed ten people. Then on October 11, “ regime forces targeted the town of Afes, east of Idlib, with heavy artillery, following a similar barrage on Darat Izzah in the western Aleppo countryside,” with 122 attacks recorded only between October 14 and October 17, including with the use of vacuum missiles, which is the most intense military escalation in over three months.
These attacks continued on a daily basis, systematically targeting villages, civilian infrastructure and agricultural zones, impacting some 55,000 families. This has led to new waves of displacement as people fled their homes to escape the bombardment; in late October, the Syrian Response Coordinators “recorded the forced displacement of over 1,843 people from 37 towns and villages in just 48 hours.” According to Ibrahim Al-Sayed speaking to the New Arab, about three-quarters of the residents of Sarmin have fled the town, which is “ the largest displacement the city has experienced since the ceasefire agreement was signed in March 2020,” due to “daily artillery and missile shelling.”
It has been widely pointed out that Assad’s Iranian and Hezbollah backers have been weakened due to defeat in Lebanon by Israel. In reality, this makes little sense, and hardly explains the complete rout that the Assadist armed forces have undergone, the fact that virtually no Syrian soldier in the whole country considered it worth laying down his life to save the genocidal dictatorship. No amount of extra Iranian or Hezbollah reinforcement would have made any difference.
In reality, the connection is somewhat different: it is precisely the fact that Hezbollah had to stop being a counterrevolutionary force in Syria but rather return to its resistance origins in its own country Lebanon — ie, return to standing on the side of the region’s peoples resisting oppression — that allowed for similar developments in Syria, ie, the Syrian peoples’ offensive against the Assad regime. Hezbollah is, after all, a Lebanese organisation, and its raison d’etre is supposedly defence of southern Lebanon. It was not Hezbollah’s defeat in Lebanon, but rather its resistance in Lebanon, that meant it couldn’t protect Assad’s tyranny. If anything, its defeat ad the signing of a ceasefire could have freed it to send forces back to Syria, had it chosen to. Yes, Israel destroyed a lot of Hezbollah’s capacity in Lebanon, but that was rockets aimed at Israel; they were never used in Syria to defend Assad in the past, why would they be now? Hezbollah’s role in protecting Assad was essentially manpower. Even Israel’s destruction of a lot of Iranian capacity in Syria means largely the infrastructure involved in delivering weapons across Syria to Hezbollah.
Much has also been made of the fact that the rebel offensive began at almost the same time as the Lebanon ceasefire came into effect, as if the defeat of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon was the signal for the rebels to launch the attack, even leading to conspiracy theories that Israel greenlighted the attack. However, as demonstrated above, it is the regime that has been attacking the rebels for the past year rather than using its forces to open a front on the Golan to aid Palestine or even to aid its ally Hezbollah, while the rebels were trying to ‘deter’ this aggression. The question is rather why the rebels waited so long to deter regime aggression.
In fact, the rebels purposefully waited until the Lebanon ceasefire precisely so as not to be seen breaking any transit of arms between Iran and Lebanon across Syria while the war lasted. While the regime’s ongoing offensive made the necessity of their operation more and more acute, they were reluctant to wage it as long as the conflict continued. As Aaron Y. Zelin, senior fellow at The Washington Institute, explained, HTS waited for a ceasefire “ because they did not want anything to do with Israel … HTS is against Israel, it has praised the October 7 attacks, it is for the Palestinian cause, Israel has nothing to do with what HTS is doing.”
According to Hadi al-Bahra, head of the exile-based opposition leadership, the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), plans for the offensive were a year old, but “the war on Gaza … then the war in Lebanon delayed it” because “it wouldn’t look good having the war in Lebanon at the same time they were fighting in Syria,” and therefore waited till the ceasefire. While the SNC itself has no control over the fighters (especially HTS, which is not part of the SNC), the article further notes that “Rebel commanders have separately said they feared if they had started their assault earlier, it might have looked like they were helping Israel, who was also battling Hezbollah.”
This also raises an interesting question about Hezbollah and Iranian intentions now. Hezbollah played a significant role in Assad’s counterrevolutionary genocide, acting as a proxy for the Iranian regime. Yet when it was in its existential struggle in Lebanon against Israel, the Assad regime did not lift a finger to help. The regime’s silence was stunning, it took it 48 hours to even issue a statement about the killing of Nasrallah. Meanwhile, the regime has been closing Hezbollah recruitment centres. Even in its statements on Lebanon it mostly didn’t mention Hezbollah.
Assad’s message to Hezbollah was: thanks for the help back then, was nice knowing you.
How likely then is it that Hezbollah or even Iran will send its own battered troops back to save Assad’s arse again? Hezbollah has already stated, diplomatically enough, that it has no plans to do so “at this stage,” while a Hezbollah spokesperson told Newsweek, comically enough, that “ The Syrian Army does not need fighters. It can defend its land.” And this was probably an added incentive for any Hezbollah cadre who did happen to still be in Syria, and even other Iran-backed forces, to flee with the rest rather than stand and fight; and on the whole, there has been surprisingly little action by these Iran-led forces over the last week.
The other “why now” question relates to Russia. While Russian warplanes did bomb the advancing rebels, this was not at a very decisive level. Bombing civilians all year while the population remained largely passive was easy enough for a ramshackle bully state like Russia, but is less effective against an advancing revolution when not used in full force. Of course, some of this is due to Putin’s catastrophic invasion of Ukraine, where most of the Russian airforce is needed to bomb Ukraine in order to maintain its illegal conquest of one fifth of that country, while Putin had thought that Syria was pacified. But, as with the Iranians, there has not been much to show for even the Russian air capacity that is present in Syria, apart from stepping up barbaric attacks on the civilian infrastructure in Idlib, such as the bombing of five hospitals, including a maternity hospital and the university hospital.
But the relatively low profile of both Russian and Iranian backers in the defence of the regime also has two other causes: firstly, the collapse of regime defences itself means it is not just difficult but pointless to fight for a regime which will not fight for itself, indeed, as Mehdi Rahmati, a prominent Iranian analyst who advises officials on regional strategy put it, “Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria’s army itself does not want to fight;” and secondly, it may also be related to frustration with the Assad regime itself, which in turn relates to their long-term work with Turkey on the Astana process.
The role of Turkiye
While Turkiye was a major backer of the rebels in the early years, by around 2016 it began prioritising its conflict with the SDF in Syria over support for the uprising. Its series of agreements with Russia and Iran under the Astana process between 2017-2020 to freeze the frontlines in the northwest can be seen in this context. While Turkiye guaranteed rebel compliance, Russia supposedly guaranteed regime compliance. With the frontline quiet — well, quite on the rebel side — Turkiye invaded northeast Syria in October 2019 to drive the SDF from the border region, with the acquiescence of Trump and Putin; the reliance of the rebels on Turkish protection of their remaining enclave allowed Turkiye to coopt some in the SNA to take part in this invasion. The invasion in turn forced the SDF to allow the regime to send troops into part of the ‘Rojava’ region they controlled, especially the border region, thus extending regime control in Syria.
But the reason Turkiye could not simply betray the rebels outright and allow full Assadist reconquest of the northwest in exchange for alliance with Assad against the SDF is because Turkiye already has 3.6 million Syrian refugees within its borders, the largest refugee population on Earth; allowing Assad to completely take all of Idlib and Aleppo provinces would lead to another few million refugees pouring in, at a time when Turkiye actually wants to try to send as many as possible back to Syria. Refugees will not return to regime-ruled Syria as long as Assad remains in power. Therefore, Turkiye has to maintain support a certain amount of territory remaining under opposition control, and has to continue to push Assad to open a dialogue with the opposition under the terms of the Astana process and of UN Resolution 2254, which calls for a Syrian-led ‘political solution’ process, because such a political process, based on compromise, could also open avenues for safe refugee return.
However, while Russia and Turkey, together with Iran, had agreed to certain frontlines in 2017 under the Astana dialogue, between 2018 and 2020 the regime launched several gigantic offensives which cut the region controlled by the opposition in half, losing all of western Aleppo province, southern Idlib province and the parts of northern Hama and Latakia it had controlled. This added an extra 1.4 million displaced people to the 2.2 million already under opposition control, now squeezed into half the area. While Turkish action finally put a stop to the Assadist offensive in early 2020, this could not be satisfactory for Turkey: how could it begin sending refugees back into Syria when the liberated region was smaller than before with even more displaced?
Despite this, the Erdogan regime has continued to push for normalisation with Assad for several years now, with proposals for launching a joint offensive against the SDF in the east, despite US forces stationed there who work with the SDF against any re-emergence of ISIS. Both Erdogan’s ultra-rightist ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and the opposition Kemalist CHP, have been strongly pushing for normalisation with Assad, a joint war with Assad against the SDF, and expulsion of Syrian refugees, on the absurd grounds that peace with Assad would allow refugees to return! [Interestingly, a number of European countries, led by Italy’s far-right Meloni government and Austria’s FPO, have been pushing much the same line, that refugee return requires reconciliation with Assad, with Italy recently sending an envoy back to the Assad regime].
Erdogan better understands the contradiction between those two stands: that refugees cannot be sent back if there is no opposition-held territory, that the only way to send them back to Assad would be violently, causing enormous upheaval, and that either expanding opposition territory, or reaching the compromise ‘political solution’, or both, are essential requirements for sending back refugees. Yet Assad, while open to normalising with Turkiye, demands withdrawal of Turkish forces as a precondition — which would likely mean Assadist reconquest — and resists all pressure to engage with the political process of UN Res 2254.
This is why much speculation has it that Turkiye gave the green-light to the offensive, to pressure Assad on these issues.
However, on November 25, just days before the rebel offensive began, Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan stated that the withdrawal of Turkish troops was no longer conditional on either the regime reaching an agreement with the opposition, or the opening of the ‘political process’; seemingly, Turkiye was still making concessions to get the normalisation process happening. The fact that the offensive was led by HTS, rather than the SNA which Turkey initially held back, also suggests that Turkiye had nothing to do with the operation.
Others note however that several days after that statement, Fidan stated that Assad is clearly not interested in peace in Syria, so perhaps exasperation did lead to Turkey giving a green light to a “ limited operation.” Either way, once the operation began, Turkiye could see its value in terms of pressuring Assad on the issues dividing them and returning non-regime territory to 2017 lines.
Since then, Turkish statements have been cautious. Erdogan has said nothing, while Fidan said that Turkiye had no involvement, declaring pointedly that “We will not initiate any action that could trigger a new wave of migration [from Syria to Turkiye],” and telling US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Turkiye was “ against any development that would increase instability in the region.” On November 29, the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement saying that “the clashes experienced in recent days have caused an undesirable increase in tension in the region. It is of great importance for Turkey not to cause new and greater instabilities and not to harm the civilian population.”
One might think, OK, this was not Turkiye’s plan, but if the offensive does lead to the overthrow of Assad, then refugees would be able to return, and Turkish influence extended all over Syria. However, Turkiye has no control over HTS, nor will it be able to control a Syria after a successful revolution. With its main goal still to “ leverage[e] the situation to push Damascus and its allies toward negotiations” via pressure from Russia and Iran, and to jointly fight the SDF, the Turkish regime would prefer a more controlled situation. On December 2, Erdogan stressed “the Syrian regime must engage in a real political process to prevent the situation from getting worse,” and that unity, stability and territorial integrity of Syria are important for Turkey.
For HTS, on the other hand, the very threat of a Turkish agreement with Assad, Russia and Iran in which it would be sacrificed was probably another reason to launch the offensive, and the independence it has gained by going so well beyond Turkey’s limited plan will be jealously guarded.
Furthermore, there is also the possibility that Assad, with Russian and Iranian support, may launch a furious counteroffensive if the rebel advance does not stop; Russia has vital strategic interests on the Syrian coastal region, and Iran in parts of the centre and south, and it is unlikely they would give them up without a massive fight beyond a certain line. And if that happened, it could lead to a further refugee outflow into Turkey.
Both Russia and Iran appear to be bending towards the Turkish position, and indeed, frustration with Assad’s intransigence, which led to this explosion, could well be a reason for the lack of Russian and Iranian response. On December 1, Russia emphasised the importance of “coordinated efforts within the framework of the Astana Format with the involvement of Turkey.” On the same day Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi “held a joint press conference with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in Ankara, where both agreed that foreign ministers of Iran, Turkey and Russia should meet soon.” Both are rational enough to see that if they don’t try to salvage something through a political process, they may end up with nothing [update: somewhat comically, as Daraa and Suweida and Homs were falling, and hours before Assad and family fled and Damascus fell, and the whole of Syria was celebrating, that Astana meeting did place, with Russia, Turkiye and Iran demanding “an end to hostile activities” in Syria!].
An interesting side-point here is HTS’s unexpected November 29 appeal to Russia, aiming to neutralise support for the regime. While condemning Russia’s bombing, the Political Affairs Administration of the SSG affirmed that “the Syrian revolution has never been against any state or people, including Russia, and it is likewise not a party to what is happening in the Russia-Ukraine war, but rather it is a revolution that was started to liberate the Syrian people from … the criminal regime,” calling on Russia “not to tie [its] interests to the Assad regime or the persona of Bashar, but rather with the Syrian people in its history, civilisation and future” as “ we consider [Russia] a potential partner in building a bright future for free Syria.”
Egypt, UAE, Jordan, Iraq: Go Assad!
As is well-known, three of the ‘Abraham Accords’ states — UAE, Bahrain and Sudan — restored relations with the Assad regime during much the same time period as they established relations with Israel, while Egypt, which has had relations with Israel for decades, also established strong relations with the Assad regime following the bloody military coup of al-Sisi in 2013.
Not surprisingly therefore, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty reiterated Egypt’s support for “Syrian national institutions” to his Syrian counterpart, stressing “Syria’s vital role in fostering regional stability and combating terrorism.” Similarly, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed (MBZ) told al-Assad that his country “stands with the Syrian state and supports it in combating terrorism, extending its sovereignty, unifying its territories, and achieving stability.” MBZ also recently put forward the idea to US officials of lifting US sanctions on the Assad regime if it cut off Iran’s weapons routes to Lebanon (an idea also put forward by Netanyahu’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer during his early November discussions with Russian leaders in Moscow). Jordanian King Abdullah II similarly said that “ Jordan stands by the brothers in Syria and its territorial integrity, sovereignty and stability.” Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani of the US-Iran joint-venture Iraqi regime also stressed that “ Syria’s security and stability are closely linked to Iraq’s national security,” while a number of pro-Iranian Iraqi militia groups declared they are sending forces to Syria to bolster the regime – curiously after not having sent forces to aid their Hezbollah co-thinkers in Lebanon when under existential attack by Israel.
Juan Cole runs the often very useful ‘Informed Comment’ site, but like everyone, he has his areas of expertise … and not. One of the problems with Syria is the tendency of people who know little about it to make up for its alleged “complexity” by making sweeping statements and buying to crass stereotypes that they normally wouldn’t. In his first piece on this uprising, while correctly discussing the alliance of states like Egypt and UAE with Assad, he then proceeds, based on nothing at all, to claim “these anti-Iran forces include Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Azerbaijan, and, outside the region, the United States. All are delighted at the news.” He then goes on to warn them that in reality, this may not be good news for them – as if they don’t already know, since they do not hold the view he so groundlessly ascribed to them!
Saudi Arabia was slower than its main allies (Egypt, UAE, Bahrain, Jordan) in restoring relations with Assad, just as it was with Israel. Despite constant media declarations that Saudi Arabia was about to normalise with Israel, it still hasn’t, but in the meantime it fully normalised with the Assad regime, and even with its great rival Iran, and it played the key role in getting Assad back into the Arab League in 2023. On December 2, Saudi leader MBS met with UAE leader MBZ, for the first time in years — their alliance has been replaced by rivalry — to discuss the Syria situation. There is little doubt MBS shares his partner’s concerns. As for Bahrain, it was one of the first Arab states to normalise with the Assad regime, just after UAE in late 2018, and like Egypt, UAE, Jordan and Israel, Bahrain welcomed the Russian intervention in 2015 to save Assad, as did Saudi Arabia secretly. Cole’s confident speculations are clearly baseless.
“In general, GCC states are supportive of the Assad regime and are firmly against it being challenged or indeed replaced by a coalition of Islamist and jihadi factions formerly associated with al-Qaeda,” according to Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow with Chatham House, while Andreas Krieg, of the defense studies department of King’s College London, stressed the angle of them protecting growing Gulf, especially Emirati, investment in Syria.
USA – rebels “terrorists”
As for the US, on November 30, National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett released the following statement:
… The Assad regime’s ongoing refusal to engage in the political process outlined in UNSCR 2254, and its reliance on Russia and Iran, created the conditions now unfolding, including the collapse of Assad regime lines in northwest Syria. At the same time, the United States has nothing to do with this offensive, which is led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization. [emphasis added]. The United States, together with its partners and allies, urge de-escalation, protection of civilians and minority groups, and a serious and credible political process that can end this civil war once and for all with a political settlement consistent with UNSCR 2254. We will also continue to fully defend and protect U.S. personnel and U.S. military positions, which remain essential to ensuring that ISIS can never again resurge in Syria.
So, the opposition is terrorist, and we want de-escalation at a time it is winning. Doesn’t sound “delighted” to me. On December 2, the US, France, Germany and the UK released a joint statement urging “de-escalation,” claiming the current “escalation” underlines the need to return to the “political solution” outlined in UNSC Res 2254.
Israel: Collapse of Assad regime could lead to military threats
Israel has always supported the Assad regime against the opposition; throughout the Syrian conflict, Israeli leaders (political, military and intelligence) and think tanks continually expressed their preference for the Assad regime prevailing against its opponents, and were especially appreciative of Assad’s decades of non-resistance on the occupied Golan frontier. This put it on the same side as its Iranian enemy, with the difference that it prefers the regime without Iran — hence Israel’s strong decade-long partnership with Russia starting with its 2015 intervention to save Assad; since then, the Israel-Russia agreement has allowed Israel to bomb Iranian and Hezbollah targets anywhere in Syria at will, and the world-class Russian S-400 air defence system will not touch them.
But since Israel has just come through a successful war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Assad regime betrayed its ally, Israel can see the opportunity to put even more pressure on Assad, to completely cut the Iranian lines into Lebanon. As such, Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar’s view that “Israel doesn’t take sides” as “ there is no good side there” is probably closest to the mainstream at present. Saar also said that Israel should “ explore ways to increase cooperation” with the Kurds, “we need to focus on their interests,” which also seems to be a common view in Israel.
On November 29, Netanyahu held a security consultation with “defence” chiefs. He was told that Hezbollah’s forces will now be shifted to Syria, “in order to defend the Assad regime,” which will bolster the likelihood of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire holding, meaning that these developments “appear to be positive” in the short-term, but “the collapse of the Assad regime would likely create chaos in which military threats against Israel would develop.” Channel 12, reporting on the meeting, also claimed concerns were raised that “strategic capabilities” of the Assad regime, including “the remnants of [its] chemical weapons,” could fall into the jihadists’ hands, so the IDF “is said to be preparing for a scenario where Israel would be required to act,” ie to destroy this weaponry before it falls into rebel hands.
So, not exactly “delighted.” This raises the question of why Israel apparently has no problem with these chemical weapons currently being in the hands of the regime! As far back as 2013, Israeli defence ministry strategist Amos Gilad stressed that while Israel “is prepared to resort to force to prevent advanced Syrian weapons reaching Hezbollah or jihadi rebels”, Israel was not interested in attacking Syria’s chemical weapons at present because “ the good news is that this is under full control (of the Syrian government).”
It is interesting that the first point, that the blows suffered by the Assad regime “forces all members of the axis to focus on another theater that is not Israel,” is likewise considered “a net positive for Israel” by Nadav Pollak, a former Israeli intelligence official at Reichman University in Israel. In other words, Iran and Hezbollah being in Syria, fighting for Assad, is no problem for Israel, as long as they are not focused on Israel. This corresponds to the times when Israel’s support to the Assad regime against the uprising was something stated openly by Israeli political, military and security chiefs, except for the Iranian factor — yet at times it was even let slip that Israel supported Iranian and Hezbollah actions as long as it was focused on support for Assad.
For example, in 2015, IDF spokesperson Alon Ben-David stated that “The Israeli military intelligence confirms that the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s ability to protect the Syrian regime has dramatically declined, making the Israeli military command more cautious of a sudden fall of the Syrian regime which will let battle-hardened jihadist groups rule near the Israeli border;” as a result, military intelligence services are “working on the preparation of a list of targets that are likely to be struck inside Syria, after a possible fall of the Assad regime” [clearly, that “list of targets” has come in handy now that “the fall of the Assad regime” has come about].
Other prominent spokespeople in the Israeli media include Dr. Yaron Friedman at the University of Haifa, who penned an article in Maariv which claimed that HTS “controls internal terrorism over the entire province of Idlib” and “like Hamas,” receives the support of Turkey and Qatar. He notes that “the opposition consists mostly of Sunni fanatics from the Salafi Jihadi stream” who “look like Hamas terrorists.” He stressed that while “Assad is far from being Israel’s friend … he is the old and familiar enemy” under whom “Syria has not waged a war against Israel for more than fifty years,” while “ Bashar al-Assad has not lifted a finger in favor of Hamas or Hezbollah since the beginning of the war in Gaza.” Therefore, “the Islamic opposition that aims to turn Syria into a center of global jihad is a much more dangerous enemy. The option of Syria under the rule of Assad under the auspices of Russia is still the least bad from Israel’s point of view.”
“The collapse of the regime in Damascus would pose a threat to the whole region, including Israel,” according to Yehuda Balanga, at the Department of Middle Eastern Studies at Bar-Ilan University. Nevertheless, Eyal Zisser of Tel Aviv University, while largely agreeing, thinks there are voices now challenging the “the traditional Israeli approach of preferring Assad — the devil we know,” with a view of delivering a blow to Iran by getting rid of the Assad regime, but, “for the moment at least, the Israeli leadership is not considering such a possibility.”
One of the problems for Israel is the same as the problem for Russia and Iran — if the despot you have relied on for decades to service your varied and even opposing interests can no longer maintain that “stability,” but on the contrary, his house collapses like a pack of cards, then continued support would not just be be a bad investment, but be utterly pointless.
On possibility discussed is for Israel to invade and establish a “buffer zone” in southern Syria if the rebels take Homs. Apparently the Golan Heights is not enough of a “buffer” for Israel [update: this has come to be in a big way!]
Hama, Homs, Daraa, Suweida, Tartous, Latakia, Damascus: 3 days!
With events moving rapidly, the rebels walked into Hama, again the regime simply melting away, with massive scenes of celebratory welcome by the population. Hama was where Hafez Assad slaughtered 40,000 people and bombed the city to suppress another uprising back in 1982, a dress rehearsal for the slaughter of hundreds of thousands and the bombing and destruction of all Syrian cities by the regime airforce during the 2011-2018 round.
For those who don’t know the significance of Hama falling to the rebels, this video is from Hama in 2011, when millions rose against Assad. As Syrian revolutionary Rami Jarrah says, “they were quickly silenced by Assad’s killing machine, these are the people who have just been liberated and this marks the end of the Assad regime.”
The rebels then moved onto Homs and again took it at lightning speed. Just as with Hama, we were warned that the rebels’ victory streak would finally meet resistance because, unlike the north, this is part of regime core areas, and there are more minority (Christian, Alawite and Ismaeli) populations in the region. Aaron Y. Zelin, senior fellow at The Washington Institute, claimed “ we will see more hardened lines in the core areas where the regime is strongest,” referring to Tartous, Lattakia, Homs, Hama and Damascus. Even Exile-based Syrian opposition leader, Hadi al-Bahra, declared he was ready to start negotiations with Assad on December 4 [postscript: talk about being out of touch with the people he claims to be a leader of!].
No such luck for the regime. Homs had been a very important centre of the 2011 revolution, in fact was called the ‘cradle of the revolution’, though it is true that there was sectarian division, which however was deliberately created by the regime. The regime bombed the city to the ground.
Meanwhile, former rebels in the southern province of Daraa launched a new front called the Houran Free Gathering, which stormed police stations and local intelligence headquarters, disarmed regime checkpoints, seized weapons, and launched attacks on regime troops.” On December 6, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) took control of the Nassib border crossing with Jordan for the first time since 2018, leading Jordan to close the border, and the same day, these FSA fighting groups announced the establishment of a Southern Operations Room for the south of the country. By December 7, the whole of Daraa had fallen.
Daraa had been the birthplace of the revolution in March 2011; here is some footage from Daraa then showing peaceful protest and massacre. The movement was galvanised in April following the regime kidnap, murder and mutilation of 13-year old Daraa child Hamza al-Khatib and torture of other children for writing anti-Assad graffiti. For several years, Daraa was controlled by the democratic-secular FSA Southern Front, containing some 35,000 troops at its height, in over 50 brigades, but as Assad’s forces rolled in in 2018, as part of a Trump-Putin-Netanyahu agreement, many fighting units underwent forced ‘reconciliation’ with the regime under Russian auspices. These fighters have now reemerged, thrown off their ‘reconciled’ uniforms and were joined by other people rising against the regime.
The neighbouring Druze province of Suweida was something of a prequel of the new revolution when the people rose against the dictatorship back in August 2023, which at the time also echoed around the country; now again people took to the streets and demanded the fall of the regime. On November 28, the ‘Local Forces in Suweida’ issued a statement supporting the “battles to regain the lands in northern Syria against the regime.” On December 1, the spiritual leader of the Druze community in Syria, Sheikh Hikmat Al-Hajri, declared that Syrians were “at a historic turning point to end the conflict and stop the killing machine of Syrians and those who caused their displacement and migration over the years,” vowing support for the “the right of the owners of the land to return to their lands” mentioning Aleppo, Idlib and parts of Hama.” Meanwhile, a Druze militia called the Syrian Brigade Party issued a statement calling on Druze soldiers to defect and return home to Suweida, and soon police station and governent buildings were seized. In coordination with neighbouring Daraa, Suweida was also under the control of the revolution by December 7.
In the east, the Arab-led Deir ez-Zour Military Council in the SDF launched the ‘ Battle of Return’ and captured seven villages on the eastern side of the Euphrates from which regime militias had been launching daily attacks on the SDF. According to the SDF, this offensive was in “ response to the appeals of local residents amid escalating threats from ISIS, which seeks to exploit the unfolding events in the western part of the country.” Now the SDF has taken control of the west side of Deir ez-Zour city from the regime and Iranian forces (it already controlled the east side).
By early December 8, the combined southern forces from Daraa and Suweida had entered Damascus. All the previously revolution-held towns of the southern and eastern Damascus — Darayya, Moademiya, Madaya, Rabadani, Ghouta and so on — once again fell to revolution, despite the expulsion of their populations to the northwest when they were defeated in 2016-18, and their repopulation by the regime with supporters, including many Iraqi and Pakistani Shia, in a sectarian engineering program, which clearly did not save the regime. Then Damascus itself fell to the southern revolutionaries.
That still left Tartous and Latakia, the two provinces of ‘the Alawite coast’, which were considered very unlikely to fall to the revolution, both due to it allegedly being the strongest base of the regime (some 80 percent of military and security officers were Alawite) but also because this is where Russia would most likely put its foot down to defend its naval bases and airbases. Nevertheless, they collapsed, and as Assad statues came down in Tartous and Latakia, the revolution declared “The city of Tartous has been liberated, we are here with our people from all sects, Christians, Alawites, Sunnis, Druze and Ismailis, the Syrian people are one, to our people in Tartous, work with us to build our country, we will present a model to be proud of”. As one Alawite who was previously in a pro-regime Alawite militia appealed:
Do not blame us and do not resent us. We were deceived for 14 years. Our awful life was under the delusion that if he [Assad] lost authority, we would be massacred and slaughtered. Our life was filled with great fear about the prospect of our being subject to genocide if he left. No one ever told us that you [the insurgents] would enter in such a peaceful way and without bloodshed. By God we have never treated anyone on a sectarian basis, but rather with all humanity and love. We lost martyrs, and you lost martyrs. God have mercy on all the martyrs. And let’s work together to build a new, free Syria: one hand and one people in all its sects and religions. To the dustbins of history, oh traitor [Assad]!
The regime disappeared into history in 10 days. The speed of collapse demonstrates that the regime’s base even in what were considered its core areas had disappeared, that no-one is willing to fight for a genocidal and uber-corrupt hereditary monarchy any longer, and the markedly positive attitude of the rebel leadership towards minorities — supposedly one of Assad’s bases — has removed the fear that the acceptance of the dictatorship rested upon. There will be many struggles ahead, but today is the day for Syrians and people fighting oppression the world over to celebrate one of the most decisive and popular revolutions ever.
Syria after Assad: Hope and uncertainty
A significant and rapid transformation is unfolding in Syria. Anti-regime forces have swiftly seized control of the capital, Damascus, and captured all the major cities in less than two weeks. The speed in which regime forces collapsed has surprised everyone.
A significant and rapid transformation is unfolding in Syria. Anti-regime forces have swiftly seized control of the capital, Damascus, and captured all the major cities in less than two weeks. The speed in which regime forces collapsed has surprised everyone.
Key forces on the ground
The leading rebel group in this movement is Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), originally established as an affiliate of al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra, in 2011. Under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, HTS has emerged as one of the most formidable and lethal groups opposing former president Bashar al-Assad. The United Nations, the United States, Turkey and various other nations have designated HTS as a terrorist organisation, but Turkey has been its main supporter in Idlib, committing some 15,000 troops to sheltering the jihadists from the former Syrian government forces. Al-Jolani has more recently publicly dissociated himself from al-Qaeda, dissolving Jabhat al-Nusra to form HTS, following a merger with several other similar anti-Assad groups.
Among the groups that fought against the Assad regime in Syria is also the Syrian National Army (SNA), backed and controlled by Turkey. The SNA was founded in 2017 and comprises a diverse range of Arab and Turkmen groups and fighters. In recent days, the SNA launched an offensive against Kurdish groups and made gains around Manbij, a strategic town in the north. The Turkish government’s primary goal is to prevent Kurdish groups from establishing a regional government on the Syrian side of Turkey’s southern border. Turkey wants to administer the zone to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees from nearby Turkish towns and Gaziantep. Turkey also pursues demographic engineering. For example, jihadist militia backed by the Turkish army pushed out the Kurds in the north-western area of Afrin, re-settling Arabs and Turkmen there. Turkey has concrete designs to resettle more than 3 million Syrian refugees in majority Kurdish areas in northern Syria.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a Kurdish-dominated alliance that controls a vast swathe of territory in north and east Syria. It is backed by the US. Importantly, it controls Syria’s main oil resources in Deir ez-Zor, as well as most of the country’s arable land.
There is also the Southern Operations Room, a newly formed coalition of rebel groups in southern and south-eastern Syria, drawn mainly from Druze communities and opposition groups.
Finally, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), despite having earlier been defeated by a coalition of forces, has remained active, particularly in central Syria, and is periodically targeted by US warplanes.
The leading rebel group in this movement is Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), originally established as an affiliate of al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra, in 2011. Under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, HTS has emerged as one of the most formidable and lethal groups opposing former president Bashar al-Assad. The United Nations, the United States, Turkey and various other nations have designated HTS as a terrorist organisation, but Turkey has been its main supporter in Idlib, committing some 15,000 troops to sheltering the jihadists from the former Syrian government forces. Al-Jolani has more recently publicly dissociated himself from al-Qaeda, dissolving Jabhat al-Nusra to form HTS, following a merger with several other similar anti-Assad groups.
Among the groups that fought against the Assad regime in Syria is also the Syrian National Army (SNA), backed and controlled by Turkey. The SNA was founded in 2017 and comprises a diverse range of Arab and Turkmen groups and fighters. In recent days, the SNA launched an offensive against Kurdish groups and made gains around Manbij, a strategic town in the north. The Turkish government’s primary goal is to prevent Kurdish groups from establishing a regional government on the Syrian side of Turkey’s southern border. Turkey wants to administer the zone to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees from nearby Turkish towns and Gaziantep. Turkey also pursues demographic engineering. For example, jihadist militia backed by the Turkish army pushed out the Kurds in the north-western area of Afrin, re-settling Arabs and Turkmen there. Turkey has concrete designs to resettle more than 3 million Syrian refugees in majority Kurdish areas in northern Syria.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a Kurdish-dominated alliance that controls a vast swathe of territory in north and east Syria. It is backed by the US. Importantly, it controls Syria’s main oil resources in Deir ez-Zor, as well as most of the country’s arable land.
There is also the Southern Operations Room, a newly formed coalition of rebel groups in southern and south-eastern Syria, drawn mainly from Druze communities and opposition groups.
Finally, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), despite having earlier been defeated by a coalition of forces, has remained active, particularly in central Syria, and is periodically targeted by US warplanes.
Imperial and sub-imperial actors
It is evident that Assad’s fall was not just due to the rebel groups; outside powers also played an essential role, in particular Turkey and Israel, as sub-imperial actors linked to the main imperial power, the US. During the Syrian Civil War, which began with the 2011 uprising against the Assad regime, the US, Turkey and Gulf monarchies poured billions of dollars into various anti-Assad Islamist militias.
The rapid fall of key Syrian towns underscores the weakened state of the Assad regime, which was entirely hollowed out and reliant on external support from Iran and Russia. The surprising success of the anti-Assad forces is directly related to Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon, which disrupted the fragile equilibrium in the Middle East and pulled a thread that has begun to unwind the region's fabric. Notably, elite Hezbollah units played a crucial role in fighting the jihadi opposition until many were redeployed to Lebanon to participate in the conflict with Israel.
With Hezbollah significantly weakened, Iran was preoccupied with its defences against Israel. Meanwhile, Russia was reallocating many of its forces from Syria to support its military operations in Ukraine, providing the rebels with their opportunity.This dependency highlights the extent to which Syria has been devastated since 2011.
It is evident that Assad’s fall was not just due to the rebel groups; outside powers also played an essential role, in particular Turkey and Israel, as sub-imperial actors linked to the main imperial power, the US. During the Syrian Civil War, which began with the 2011 uprising against the Assad regime, the US, Turkey and Gulf monarchies poured billions of dollars into various anti-Assad Islamist militias.
The rapid fall of key Syrian towns underscores the weakened state of the Assad regime, which was entirely hollowed out and reliant on external support from Iran and Russia. The surprising success of the anti-Assad forces is directly related to Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon, which disrupted the fragile equilibrium in the Middle East and pulled a thread that has begun to unwind the region's fabric. Notably, elite Hezbollah units played a crucial role in fighting the jihadi opposition until many were redeployed to Lebanon to participate in the conflict with Israel.
With Hezbollah significantly weakened, Iran was preoccupied with its defences against Israel. Meanwhile, Russia was reallocating many of its forces from Syria to support its military operations in Ukraine, providing the rebels with their opportunity.This dependency highlights the extent to which Syria has been devastated since 2011.
Human and economic costs
The human toll of Syria’s conflict is profoundly devastating. More than half a million lives have been lost, leaving a deep scar on the nation’s collective consciousness. Millions more have been uprooted from their homes, forced to flee in search of safety and stability. The social fabric of Syrian society has been irreparably damaged, with communities sharply divided along sectarian lines, creating an environment of mistrust and animosity. Entire generations are growing up in a landscape dominated by the echoes of war, their childhoods overshadowed by violence and loss. If sectarianism persists and the new power arrangements in Damascus fail to integrate all social, ethnic and religious groups, then disintegration of the country is very likely.
Economically, the country has suffered catastrophic losses, with Syria’s economic output shrinking by as much as 60% since the conflict began in 2011, according to a new report released by Chatham House. This economic collapse has resulted in staggering unemployment rates, which among adolescents is close to 75 per cent and is significantly higher among women, leaving countless families struggling to survive.
The infrastructure that once supported daily life — roads, schools, and hospitals — has been systematically destroyed, rendering essential services inaccessible. Over the years, Israel has systematically targeted Syria’s infrastructure and military facilities, a campaign it is now intensifying to prevent critical infrastructure from falling into the hands of unpredictable HTS anti-Zionist factions.
The UN humanitarian chief has stated that Syria’s decade-long conflict pushed 90% of its population below the poverty line, forcing them to subsist on less than £2 a day. This grim reality is compounded with rampant hyperinflation, fuelled by stringent US sanctions and a banking crisis in neighbouring Lebanon — also a by-product of those same sanctions. Consequently, millions are ensnared in a cycle of poverty, with minimal hope for a better future.
Highlighting the extent of decay, the production of captagon — an addictive, amphetamine-type stimulant mass-produced in Syria — became one of the primary sources of hard currency for the Assad regime. Since 2011, the Gulf region has witnessed a notable escalation in both the scale and sophistication of drug trafficking, particularly with an increase in the availability of Captagon. Under Assad, the Syrian regime exploited Captagon trafficking as a means to apply pressure on Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia. The production and distribution of this drug are closely linked to the interests of powerful factions within Syria, including high-ranking members of the Assad leadership.
Since 2010-11, a significant portion of the Syrian population has become deeply demoralised by the dire conditions within the country. As a result, the Assad regime was transformed into a mere shadow of its former self, increasingly reliant on support from its Russian and Iranian allies.
The human toll of Syria’s conflict is profoundly devastating. More than half a million lives have been lost, leaving a deep scar on the nation’s collective consciousness. Millions more have been uprooted from their homes, forced to flee in search of safety and stability. The social fabric of Syrian society has been irreparably damaged, with communities sharply divided along sectarian lines, creating an environment of mistrust and animosity. Entire generations are growing up in a landscape dominated by the echoes of war, their childhoods overshadowed by violence and loss. If sectarianism persists and the new power arrangements in Damascus fail to integrate all social, ethnic and religious groups, then disintegration of the country is very likely.
Economically, the country has suffered catastrophic losses, with Syria’s economic output shrinking by as much as 60% since the conflict began in 2011, according to a new report released by Chatham House. This economic collapse has resulted in staggering unemployment rates, which among adolescents is close to 75 per cent and is significantly higher among women, leaving countless families struggling to survive.
The infrastructure that once supported daily life — roads, schools, and hospitals — has been systematically destroyed, rendering essential services inaccessible. Over the years, Israel has systematically targeted Syria’s infrastructure and military facilities, a campaign it is now intensifying to prevent critical infrastructure from falling into the hands of unpredictable HTS anti-Zionist factions.
The UN humanitarian chief has stated that Syria’s decade-long conflict pushed 90% of its population below the poverty line, forcing them to subsist on less than £2 a day. This grim reality is compounded with rampant hyperinflation, fuelled by stringent US sanctions and a banking crisis in neighbouring Lebanon — also a by-product of those same sanctions. Consequently, millions are ensnared in a cycle of poverty, with minimal hope for a better future.
Highlighting the extent of decay, the production of captagon — an addictive, amphetamine-type stimulant mass-produced in Syria — became one of the primary sources of hard currency for the Assad regime. Since 2011, the Gulf region has witnessed a notable escalation in both the scale and sophistication of drug trafficking, particularly with an increase in the availability of Captagon. Under Assad, the Syrian regime exploited Captagon trafficking as a means to apply pressure on Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia. The production and distribution of this drug are closely linked to the interests of powerful factions within Syria, including high-ranking members of the Assad leadership.
Since 2010-11, a significant portion of the Syrian population has become deeply demoralised by the dire conditions within the country. As a result, the Assad regime was transformed into a mere shadow of its former self, increasingly reliant on support from its Russian and Iranian allies.
Hope and uncertainty
The prevailing sentiment in Syria today is jubilation, reflecting a widespread perception of Assad as a ruthless monarch and brutal dictator who would never willingly relinquish power. There is growing hope among the population that Syria now has the chance to advance towards democracy and protect the rights of all its citizens, including ethnic minorities and previously marginalised communities. The streets are vibrant with celebrations as the people rejoice at Assad’s Assad. But this is only one side of the coin.
There is also growing concern that the current situation may descend into chaos, resulting in even greater suffering for ordinary Syrians, Kurds and other ethnic minorities. While Assad’s dictatorship has been a significant contributor to the difficulties in Syria, the problems extend beyond the previous regime. Deep-rooted sectarian divisions and ethnic tensions have existed for a long time and will not be easily resolved. Additionally, those who have recently assumed power in Damascus have a recent history of brutalising local populations.
It is also worth bearing in mind that two sub-imperial powers, Israel and Turkey, have their own plans for the region. The former will do everything in its powers to prevent the Palestinians from having a truly independent state; the latter will do everything in its powers to prevent the Kurds from having a truly independent state. The main imperial power, the US, oversees the planning of these processes, but the key issue is whether these dynamics are sustainable in the medium-to-long run.
There is a possibility that Syria could encounter a scenario similar to that of Iraq after 2003 or Libya after 2011, potentially leading to increased chaos and destruction. The various factions that have emerged might further fragment the country based on their own interests, and engage in conflicts for greater dominance. The positions of the rebel forces regarding power-sharing and the likelihood of democratic elections remain uncertain. Concurrently, the Israeli army has initiated a ground operation in southern Syria, near the occupied Golan Heights, which aims to establish a significant buffer zone and strengthen their foothold in the region while checking the HTS.
The situation is currently characterised by a high level of unpredictability, complicating efforts to deliver definitive forecasts regarding potential outcomes. This climate of uncertainty appears to align with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's broader ambitions of a Neo-Ottoman revival in the region. During the ongoing civil war, the Turkish government provided considerable support to various factions identified as Islamist rebels operating in Syria. This support network enabled Turkey to effectively position itself as a direct participant in the conflict. The SNA has been increasingly transformed into an extension of Turkey’s own security apparatus, further complicating the dynamics of the civil war and illustrating Turkey’s deepening involvement in the region's turmoil.
The prevailing sentiment in Syria today is jubilation, reflecting a widespread perception of Assad as a ruthless monarch and brutal dictator who would never willingly relinquish power. There is growing hope among the population that Syria now has the chance to advance towards democracy and protect the rights of all its citizens, including ethnic minorities and previously marginalised communities. The streets are vibrant with celebrations as the people rejoice at Assad’s Assad. But this is only one side of the coin.
There is also growing concern that the current situation may descend into chaos, resulting in even greater suffering for ordinary Syrians, Kurds and other ethnic minorities. While Assad’s dictatorship has been a significant contributor to the difficulties in Syria, the problems extend beyond the previous regime. Deep-rooted sectarian divisions and ethnic tensions have existed for a long time and will not be easily resolved. Additionally, those who have recently assumed power in Damascus have a recent history of brutalising local populations.
It is also worth bearing in mind that two sub-imperial powers, Israel and Turkey, have their own plans for the region. The former will do everything in its powers to prevent the Palestinians from having a truly independent state; the latter will do everything in its powers to prevent the Kurds from having a truly independent state. The main imperial power, the US, oversees the planning of these processes, but the key issue is whether these dynamics are sustainable in the medium-to-long run.
There is a possibility that Syria could encounter a scenario similar to that of Iraq after 2003 or Libya after 2011, potentially leading to increased chaos and destruction. The various factions that have emerged might further fragment the country based on their own interests, and engage in conflicts for greater dominance. The positions of the rebel forces regarding power-sharing and the likelihood of democratic elections remain uncertain. Concurrently, the Israeli army has initiated a ground operation in southern Syria, near the occupied Golan Heights, which aims to establish a significant buffer zone and strengthen their foothold in the region while checking the HTS.
The situation is currently characterised by a high level of unpredictability, complicating efforts to deliver definitive forecasts regarding potential outcomes. This climate of uncertainty appears to align with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's broader ambitions of a Neo-Ottoman revival in the region. During the ongoing civil war, the Turkish government provided considerable support to various factions identified as Islamist rebels operating in Syria. This support network enabled Turkey to effectively position itself as a direct participant in the conflict. The SNA has been increasingly transformed into an extension of Turkey’s own security apparatus, further complicating the dynamics of the civil war and illustrating Turkey’s deepening involvement in the region's turmoil.
Winners & losers
Turkey will play a unique and influential role in the ongoing conflict and reconstruction efforts in Syria. Its economic, diplomatic and military resources offer substantial leverage in shaping Syria’s future. In 2017, the reconstruction bill for Syria was estimated at $360 billion. Today, it is obviously much higher. Turkish companies are well placed to actively participate in integrative economic efforts uniting Gaziantep, Tal Rifaat and Aleppo. Additionally, Turkey maintains strong ties with a significant segment of the Syrian population, which further strengthens its involvement in these crucial processes. Add to this, Turkey’s aforementioned demographic engineering and the picture is complete.
What has happened in the past few weeks in Syria has been described by Steven Simon as “essentially a Turkish coup.” According to Simon, “the Turks and Qataris have constituted an axis since the early days of the Syrian civil war in 2011, and they have finally achieved their objective of overthrowing Assad.” However, these efforts will only be advantageous if the political situation in Damascus advances peacefully and in a power-sharing agreement that is all-inclusive and fair. Otherwise, the disintegrative tendencies will prevail, and the emergence of an independent Kurdish entity will loom large, generating further conflict. From this perspective, Turkey could emerge as a key winner in the post-Assad era, provided that the scenario of the country’s disintegration fails to materialise.
Concerning Russia and Iran, Assad’s downfall signifies a notable shift for both powers. The swift collapse of his regime has left these two nations with limited options for maintaining their influence in the region. Russia appears to have decided to focus on Ukraine, dealing significant blows to Western interests if the US chooses to escalate the conflict.
Recent events have rapidly shifted the balance of power in the Middle East in favour of Israel and against Iran. Supply chains and networks connecting Hezbollah with Iran and the Assad regime have been severely weakened if not completely broken. There is no doubt that Israel is another undisputed winner from the developments in Syria, although it remains vigilant regarding the HTS and other Islamic anti-Zionist forces.
The implications of all these changes and regional power shifts are expected to unfold in the coming years across the entire conflict zone, from Russia’s western frontiers (the Baltic states, Ukraine, the Black Sea, and the Caucasus) down to the Suez Canal, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. The conclusion of Assad’s brutal regime heralds the onset of a new phase of upheaval and instability in the Middle East. Syrian territory has been transformed into a battleground for competing geopolitical interests, with various actors vying to extend their influence.
It would be premature to claim that a stable system will emerge from these turbulent developments. The most likely scenario in the coming years involves a protracted, albeit potentially more contained, conflict characterised by an increased military presence and business expansion driven by Turkish and Israeli sub-imperialisms.
Bülent Gökay is professor of international relations at Keele University, UK, and editor of the Journal of Global Faultlines (Pluto). Vassilis K. Fouskas is professor of international relations at the University of East London, UK, and editor of the Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies (Routledge)
Turkey will play a unique and influential role in the ongoing conflict and reconstruction efforts in Syria. Its economic, diplomatic and military resources offer substantial leverage in shaping Syria’s future. In 2017, the reconstruction bill for Syria was estimated at $360 billion. Today, it is obviously much higher. Turkish companies are well placed to actively participate in integrative economic efforts uniting Gaziantep, Tal Rifaat and Aleppo. Additionally, Turkey maintains strong ties with a significant segment of the Syrian population, which further strengthens its involvement in these crucial processes. Add to this, Turkey’s aforementioned demographic engineering and the picture is complete.
What has happened in the past few weeks in Syria has been described by Steven Simon as “essentially a Turkish coup.” According to Simon, “the Turks and Qataris have constituted an axis since the early days of the Syrian civil war in 2011, and they have finally achieved their objective of overthrowing Assad.” However, these efforts will only be advantageous if the political situation in Damascus advances peacefully and in a power-sharing agreement that is all-inclusive and fair. Otherwise, the disintegrative tendencies will prevail, and the emergence of an independent Kurdish entity will loom large, generating further conflict. From this perspective, Turkey could emerge as a key winner in the post-Assad era, provided that the scenario of the country’s disintegration fails to materialise.
Concerning Russia and Iran, Assad’s downfall signifies a notable shift for both powers. The swift collapse of his regime has left these two nations with limited options for maintaining their influence in the region. Russia appears to have decided to focus on Ukraine, dealing significant blows to Western interests if the US chooses to escalate the conflict.
Recent events have rapidly shifted the balance of power in the Middle East in favour of Israel and against Iran. Supply chains and networks connecting Hezbollah with Iran and the Assad regime have been severely weakened if not completely broken. There is no doubt that Israel is another undisputed winner from the developments in Syria, although it remains vigilant regarding the HTS and other Islamic anti-Zionist forces.
The implications of all these changes and regional power shifts are expected to unfold in the coming years across the entire conflict zone, from Russia’s western frontiers (the Baltic states, Ukraine, the Black Sea, and the Caucasus) down to the Suez Canal, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. The conclusion of Assad’s brutal regime heralds the onset of a new phase of upheaval and instability in the Middle East. Syrian territory has been transformed into a battleground for competing geopolitical interests, with various actors vying to extend their influence.
It would be premature to claim that a stable system will emerge from these turbulent developments. The most likely scenario in the coming years involves a protracted, albeit potentially more contained, conflict characterised by an increased military presence and business expansion driven by Turkish and Israeli sub-imperialisms.
Bülent Gökay is professor of international relations at Keele University, UK, and editor of the Journal of Global Faultlines (Pluto). Vassilis K. Fouskas is professor of international relations at the University of East London, UK, and editor of the Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies (Routledge)
Feeding Chaos: Israel Cripples Syria’s Defence
The justifications are always the same. We are moving into territory for security reasons. We are creating a temporary buffer zone from which tactical advantage can be gained against potential dangers. Then, over time, these buffers become strategic fixtures, de facto real estate seizures and annexations. Israel now finds itself in what was a United Nations-patrolled buffer zone on the Golan Heights, and Turkey is established in parts of northern Syria, keeping a watchful eye on Kurdish militants.
Since October 7 last year, Israel’s response to the attacks by Hamas has been one of sledgehammers and chisels, a conscious attempt to broaden the conflict beyond its Palestinian confines to targeting the Lebanese militia group Hezbollah and its sponsor, Iran. In doing so, Israel has played an increasingly destructive role in Syria, where Hezbollah targets and Iranian supply lines have been struck with regularity. The move is intended to cripple Teheran’s Axis of Resistance, a patchwork of Shia militias spanning Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria.
With the collapse of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Israel intends further disruption. This marks a departure from a policy it had maintained with Assad for some years, one that permitted him and the Syrian Arab Army to operate without molestation subject to one stern caveat: that Hezbollah and, by virtue of that Iran’s influence, could also be contained. This point is made in documents recently unearthed by the New Lines magazine, one that directly involved a channel of communication between an Israeli operative code-named “Mousa” (Mosses) and the Syrian Defence Minister Lt. Gen. Ali Mahmoud Abbas.
A message dated May 17, 2023 outlines Israel’s indignation at an incident involving the firing of three rockets on Israel from the Golan Heights, an action purportedly instructed by Khaled Meshaal and Saleh al-Arouri of Hamas. “Lately, because of Quds Day and Flag March, we are observing Palestinian activities on your land […] We warn you of the prospect of any activity of these parties on your territory and we demand you to stop any [Iranian] preparations for the use of these forces on your territory – you’re responsible for what is happening in Syria.”
The collapse of Assad’s rule, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), has brought Israeli intentions to the fore. The group’s leader, Mohammed al-Julani, has made previous mutterings favouring the Hamas October 7 attacks and expressing solidarity with the Palestinian cause. Since then, al-Julani has expressed no desire to do battle “with Israel or anyone else and we will not let Syria be used as launchpad for attacks”, promised to protect minority rights and disband rebel groups for incorporation into the Ministry of Defence, and dissembled on whether the new administration would be focused on Islamic law.
On December 10, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made fairly redundant remarks that his government had no intention meddling in Syria’s internal affairs, only to warn Assad’s successors that any move allowing “Iran to re-establish itself in Syria or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or attacks us – we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price from it.”
Defence Minister Israel Katz similarly warned Syria’s triumphant rebel forces that “whoever follows in Assad’s footsteps will end up like Assad did. We don’t allow an extremist Islamic terror entity to act against Israel from beyond its borders… we will do anything to remove the threat.”
Since Assad’s fleeing on December 7, Israel’s air force has made it a priority to destroy the military means of any successor regime in Damascus, citing concerns that material would fall into the hands of undesirable jihadists. Over December 10 and 11, 350 strikes were conducted on anti-aircraft batteries, airfields, weapons production sites including chemical weapons, combat aircraft and missiles (Scud, cruise, coast-to-sea and air-defence varieties) in Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Latakia and Palmyra. “I authorised the air force to bomb strategic military capabilities left by the Syrian army,” reasoned Netanyahu, “so that they would not fall into the hands of the jihadists.”
A bold estimate from the IDF about the operation described as “Bashan Arrow”, was that it had destroyed approximately 70-80% of the strategic military capabilities of Assad’s Syrian Arab Army. As of December 16, the total number of strikes Israel has conducted on Syrian territory has reached 473. For any advocate of stability, which would require some measure of military capability, this could hardly augur well.
Over the course of this glut of sorties, Israeli troops have militarised the demilitarised zone inside Syria created in the aftermath of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, including Mount Hermon, a site overlooking Damascus. The menacing move on Syrian territory was sanitised by IDF military spokesperson Colonel Nadav Shoshani: “IDF forces are not advancing towards Damascus. This is not something we are doing or pursuing in any way.” Both the Beirut-based Mayadeen TV, and the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights have taken the gloss off such assessments, stating that the IDF has moved within 16 miles of the Syrian capital.
Crippling the infrastructure of the state that awaits the fledgling ruling parties in Syria, who can only count themselves as a ragtag transitional entity at this point, stirs an already turbulent, precarious situation. The very scenario which Netanyahu and his planners wish to avoid, and Assad sought to prevent, may well be realised.
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