Saturday, May 31, 2025

Rice anthropologists spotlight human toll of glacier loss

Rice University

image:
Iceland's Glacier Graveyard.
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Credit: Photo courtesy of Dominic Boyer/Rice University

In an important contribution from the social sciences, Rice University anthropologists Cymene Howe and Dominic Boyer examine the societal consequences of global glacier loss in a commentary published today in Science.

Their article appears alongside new research that estimates that more than three-quarters of the world’s glacier mass could disappear by the end of the century under current climate policies. While the study projects the physical outcomes of glacial melt, Howe and Boyer highlight the social impacts and human stories behind the statistics — from disrupted ecosystems and endangered cultural heritage to funeral rites held for vanished ice.

“Often statistics about glacier loss can feel abstract and distant. But glaciers have literally shaped the ground we walk on, and they provide crucial water resources to about 2 billion people. For people who have lived near glaciers, their cultural meanings are often profound, representing the fundamental relationship between social and natural worlds ” said Howe, professor of anthropology and co-director of Rice’s Program in Science and Technology Studies.

The commentary draws from the authors’ ongoing work on the Global Glacier Casualty List, a Rice-based digital platform that documents glaciers that have melted or are critically endangered. The project blends climate science, social science and community narratives to memorialize a rapidly disappearing part of Earth’s cryosphere.

“The past five years have been the worst five years for glaciers since ice loss has been tracked scientifically. We’re now losing 273 billion tons of ice globally each year, but there’s a feeling that even these staggering losses aren’t enough to motivate needed climate action,” said Boyer, professor of anthropology and co-director of the Center for Coastal Futures and Adaptive Resilience. “This is where we think the social sciences can work together with glaciologists and climate scientists to explain why these losses matter and how many lives and communities are impacted when these amazing landscapes disappear.”

Their publication marks an uncommon appearance by social scientists in Science, which primarily features research in the natural and physical sciences. The authors argue that addressing the impacts of climate change requires not only scientific measurement but also cultural understanding, public memory and collective action.

“As glacial loss accelerates, so do the social and emotional responses to environmental change,” they write.

The United Nations has designated 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers’ Preservation. Howe and Boyer emphasize that global climate goals, such as limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, could still preserve a significant portion of the world’s glaciers and prevent the erosion of ecosystems, economies and cultural lifeways connected to them.

“Most people on Earth will never have a chance to be in the presence of a glacier, but their loss affects us all. We still have a chance to preserve half the world’s remaining glaciers if we act together — and immediately — to reduce global warming,” Howe said. “We have lost a lot, but there is still so much that can be saved for us and the generations that will come after us: They deserve to know the magnificence and meaning of these great bodies of ice.”

The commentary was supported by the National Science Foundation’s Office of Polar Programs.

To explore the Global Glacier Casualty List, visit https://ggcl.rice.edu.

Journal

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.ady1688

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Social impacts of glacier loss

Article Publication Date

29-May-2025

Save twice the ice by limiting global warming

ETH Zurich

Morteratsch Glacier Cave in Switzerland — image:
In Switzerland, the Morteratsch-Pers glacier complex is rapidly shrinking. This ice cave, formed in 2023, marks a glacier gate where meltwater emerges. Without decisive climate action, Swiss glaciers could disappear entirely by 2100.
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Credit: Lander Van Tricht / ETH Zurich and Vrije Universiteit Brussel

In brief:

Even if the rise in global temperatures were to stabilise at its current level, it is projected that the world would lose around 40 per cent of its glaciers.
If global warming can be limited to +1.5 °C, it may be possible to preserve twice as much glacier ice as in a scenario where temperatures rise by +2.7 °C.
This conclusion was reached by a research team with participation of ETH Zurich researchers, based on a new, multi-centennial analysis of global glacier evolution.

The findings, published today in the prestigious journal, Science, are striking. Even if global temperatures were stabilised at today’s level of 1.2°C, an estimated 39 per cent of global glacier mass would still be lost compared to 2020 levels—contributing over 10 centimetres to global sea-level rise.

In the new study, an international team of 21 scientists from ten countries used eight glacier models to calculate the potential ice loss from more than 200,000 glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica. The team evaluated a wide range of global temperature scenarios, assuming that temperatures would remain constant for thousands of years in each scenario.

“The choices we make today will resonate for centuries, determining how much of our glaciers can be preserved,” says Harry Zekollari, co-lead author from Vrije Universiteit Brussel, who began this research as a postdoctoral fellow at the Chair of Glaciology in the Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering (D-BAUG) at ETH Zurich.

Looking beyond 2100 reveals new insights

In all scenarios, the glaciers lose mass rapidly over decades and then continue to melt at a slower pace for centuries — even without additional warming. This long-term response means glaciers will continue to feel the effects of today’s heat far into the future, gradually retreating to higher altitudes before reaching a new equilibrium.

“One of the key strengths of our study is that we were able, for the first time, to project global glacier evolution over multi-centennial timescales, and did so using eight models instead of one or two,” explains Harry Zekollari. “Most glacier studies stop at 2100, which is problematic when simulating the long-term impact of today’s climate policies, given the long-term response of glaciers over time.”

For example, while studies limited to the year 2100 estimate that around 20 per cent of today’s glacier mass will be lost regardless of future warming, the new study reveals that nearly twice as much would vanish under present-day conditions when multi-centennial timescales are considered. “We find that around 40 per cent of glacier mass is effectively ‘doomed’ to disappear,” says co-lead author Harry Zekollari.

Melting glaciers reveal the reality of global warming

"Glaciers are good indicators of climate change because their retreat allows us to see with our own eyes how climate is changing. However, since they adjust over longer timescales, their current size vastly understates the magnitude of climate change that has already happened. The situation for glaciers is actually far worse than visible in the mountains today," says co-lead author Lilian Schuster from the University of Innsbruck.

Beyond contributing to sea-level rise, glacier loss has far-reaching consequences. It threatens freshwater availability, increases the risk of glacier-related hazards such as floods and landslides, and jeopardizes glacier-fed tourism economies. These cascading impacts will be felt across regions and generations.

“These effects underscore the critical importance of present-day climate policies,” says Harry Zekollari. “Our study makes it painfully clear that every fraction of a degree matters. If we manage to limit global warming to +1.5°C instead of +2.7°C, we could still save twice as much glacier ice.”

Current policies are projected to lead to an average global warming of around +2.7°C. As Zekollari emphasizes, the degree of warming between +1.5°C and +3.0°C plays a decisive role in glacier loss. Put simply: for every additional 0.1°C of warming, the world risks losing approximately 2per cent more of its glacier ice.

Contributing to the UN-Year of Glaciers' Preservation

“This study is a major contribution to the United Nations International Year of Glaciers' Preservation, emphasizing the urgent need for global climate action to protect the world’s glaciers,” says Daniel Farinotti, Professor of Glaciology at ETH Zurich and the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL.

His research group at the Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW) played a central role in producing the new findings. The entire study led by Zekollari and Schuster was conducted as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project (GlacierMIP) and coordinated by the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).

Farinotti notes that the release of the Science study coincides with the opening of the High-Level International Conference on Glaciers' Preservation, initiated by the President of Tajikistan through the United Nations (UN) Resolution that established both the UN Year of Glaciers' Preservation and, later, the UN Decade of Action for the Cryospheric Sciences 2025-2034.

On the Swiss side, the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) was invited to support the organisation of the event, particularly in drafting what is intended to become the "Dushanbe Glacier Declaration". Daniel Farinotti, for his part, is acting as an advisor to the FDFA in the preparation of the declaration.

Reference
Zekollari, H, Schuster, L et al. Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C. In: Science, 29 May 2025. DOI:10.1126/science.adu4675

This graph illustrates the loss of glacier mass worldwide as global temperatures rise. It shows that more glaciers—particularly in Asia and New Zealand—could be preserved if global warming is limited to 1.5°C compared to the 2.7°C path resulting from current policies. Each circle represents the proportion of glacier mass projected to be lost even if temperatures remain at today’s level of +1.2°C (blue segment). The colored lines indicate the additional long-term loss expected if warming continues.

Credit

ETH Zurich and Vrije Universiteit Brussel

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