Trump’s ceasefire deal is dead – and Ukraine should count its blessings
Editorial
Fri 22 August 2025
THE INDEPENDENT UK
Although he is far too proud to admit it, Donald Trump’s quest for peace in Ukraine is over – at least for the time being. It seems to be slowly dawning on the US president that the man he was honouring with lavish affection only a week ago in Alaska may not be quite as trustworthy and reliable a partner as Mr Trump would like.
The awakening has been a long time coming, and it remains partial. The realisation that Vladimir Putin might be “tapping me along” was raised as early as April, but that didn’t stop Mr Trump indulging his counterpart. When the first lady apparently suggested that President Putin “talks nice” but then bombs civilians in Ukraine, Mr Trump’s reluctant scepticism notched up a little more. Then he told the BBC he was “not done” with Putin, but was “disappointed”.
Still, though, President Trump persisted with this vision of a superpower summit after which the peace process in Ukraine would at least begin.
One week on, and with Russia’s cynicism as palpable as ever, Mr Trump seems to have decided to expend no more political capital on the war in Ukraine. He has discerned that “maybe [Putin] doesn’t want to make a deal”. A standard, Nobel Prize-winning deal in Ukraine is not clearly not going to materialise for Mr Trump – just as it won’t in Gaza.
Conveniently discarding the multiple promises that he could deliver a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in a day, the White House now says that Mr Trump is simply going to wait until Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin are ready to talk before wading into the intractable conflict again. Maybe then he’ll convene the trilateral meeting that seemed imminent last week.
It will be a long wait – but, on balance, this is just as well. The basic contours of an agreement did become clearer in recent weeks, and they were problematic. The terms could be summarised as Ukraine giving up significant amounts of its sovereign lands, and thus defensive capability, in return for very little. Mr Zelensky did not fancy a “constitutional” commitment from Russia, nor some equally woolly “security guarantees” from the US and, tragically, from the so-called “coalition of the willing”, thus far united only in timidity.
As Kaja Kallas, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, points out, the Putin-Trump peace deal was a “trap” set by the Kremlin for Mr Zelensky. Had the Ukrainian leader carried on with his tactic of constructively engaging with the peace initiative sponsored by Mr Trump, he might well have found himself under irresistible pressure to capitulate and “swap territories”, a euphemism for surrendering millions of free Ukrainians to their grisly fate of brutal Russification. That, at least, has been avoided.
Ms Kallas is right to point out some salient basic facts about the war and the recent moves to end it: “We are forgetting that Russia has not made one single concession, and they are the ones who are the aggressor here. Putin is just laughing – not stopping the killing, but increasing the killing.”
So the war in Ukraine goes on; if anything, with more intensity. As if to show open contempt for his interlocutors, Putin’s forces bombed civilian targets as far west as Lviv, close to Poland, and destroyed a US-owned factory in the area. There’s been no let-up in the activities of Russia’s “shadow fleet”, ferrying contraband oil and conducting espionage – hardly the acts of a nation intent on peaceful cohabitation.
One hopeful sign is that President Trump is openly criticising his predecessor, Joe Biden, for not allowing Ukraine to “fight back” by striking targets in the Russian Federation. He also, in typical Trump style, took to social media to talk up Ukraine’s military prospects: “It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invader’s country. It’s like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense, but is not allowed to play offense. There is no chance of winning! It is like that with Ukraine and Russia. Crooked and grossly incompetent Joe Biden would not let Ukraine FIGHT BACK, only DEFEND. How did that work out? … Interesting times ahead!”
Interesting indeed – and while Mr Trump has not quite switched sides again to the extent that he will send hi-tech weaponry directly to Ukraine, he is content for the coalition of the willing to buy arms and pass them on to Kyiv’s forces. Mr Trump has also shown himself ready to sanction countries such as India, who are propping up the Russian war machine by buying Putin’s oil – and there may be some more pressure in that respect to come with China.
Through bitter experience, Ukraine has itself already emerged as a formidable military player, pioneering the use of battlefield drones, for example, and missile strikes on strategic Russian infrastructure. The new, improbably named Flamingo cruise missile developed by Ukrainian engineers is said to have a range of 3,000km (1,900 miles) and will soon be in mass production.
Also on Mr Zelensky’s side is the parlous state of the Russian economy. In such a secretive state, no one knows for sure how long Russia can support such a hungry war machine. Much depends on the world price of oil, Russia’s ability to dodge sanctions, and the willingness of China to lend it money. But some sort of financial crisis feels more likely than not, and particularly if Mr Trump turns frostier with the Kremlin.
WAR IS ECOCIDE
Ukraine is stepping up attacks on Russian energy - and it’s working
Tim Lister and Daria Tarasova-Markina,
A satellite image of an oil pumping station, part of Druzhba pipeline, struck by drones according to Ukraine's military, in the Tambov region of Russia on August 19, 2025. - Maxar Technologies/Reuters
Much of that increase is being passed on to consumers, with the Russian far east especially impacted. Analysts expect no relief for at least a month, even though the Russian government imposed a ban on exporting petrol in late July - which in turn contributed to a rise in exports of crude oil instead.
“Unfortunately, our forecast is unfavorable for now — we will most likely have to wait at least another month for prices to fall,” Sergey Frolov, managing partner at NEFT Research, told the Russian newspaper Kommersant. Kommersant said that the surge in prices this month was “due to accidents at oil refineries.”
The military is less affected because its demand is mainly for diesel, supplies of which are less impacted.
A new focus
The Ukrainian military and intelligence services have developed long-range warfare using drones, missiles and sabotage even as a very different conflict unfolds on the ground. The military claimed this month that long-range attacks this year have caused $74 billion in damage, with nearly 40% of strikes at least 500 kilometers inside Russia.
It’s not possible to verify such claims, but there is plenty of visual evidence of the damage done to refineries, storage tanks and pumping stations in recent months. Repairing such infrastructure is complicated by European and US sanctions
In a report on Thursday, Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service said that Russian companies were urgently purchasing petroleum from Belarus to address domestic shortages. The state-owned refiner in Belarus, Belneftekhim, says that in the last week “interest in Belarusian oil products on the Russian market has surged.”
Ukraine is also trying to impede Russian exports of oil. Last week its drones struck the Druzhba pipeline that supplies Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia – two EU countries whose governments remain on good terms with Moscow.
Both complained to the EU, saying that “with these attacks Ukraine is not primarily hurting Russia, but Hungary and Slovakia.”
US President Donald Trump also intervened, saying in a hand-written note to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban that he was “very angry” about the disruption.
But for Ukraine, under pressure on the frontlines, attacks on Russia’s vital energy industry are a way to counter Moscow’s narrative that its victory is ultimately inevitable.
Ukraine is trying to add to its arsenal of long-range weapons and last week unveiled a domestically produced cruise missile called the Flamingo. The manufacturer aims to produce 200 a month.
Missile expert Fabian Hoffman says that for a soft target such as distillation columns of Russian refineries, for example, the Flamingo’s lethal radius would be upwards of 38 meters. That would cause substantial damage.
Workers inspect a Flamingo cruise missile at Fire Point's secret factory in Ukraine on August 18, 2025. - Efrem Lukatsky/AP
“Each missile that successfully hits its target will cause much more damage [than existing Ukrainian weapons] with its 1,150-kilogram warhead,” says Mick Ryan, author of the blog Futura Doctrina.
“While I would not call it a silver bullet, it will have a significant impact on Ukraine’s capacity to hurt Russia,” not least because it’s hard to defend every oil refinery.
In the meantime, analysts do not expect thousands of Russian gas stations to run dry but believe the disruption will aggravate already high inflation and likely mean an extension of the ban on gasoline exports into the autumn, as the Kremlin tries to tamp down prices and ensure supply.
CNN’s Annoa Abekah-Mensah contributed to this report
Tim Lister and Daria Tarasova-Markina,
CNN
Sun 24 August 2025
A dramatic rise in Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries has sent gasoline prices in Russia to record highs, despite the government banning petrol exports to cope with the crunch.
Ukraine is focusing drone attacks on refineries, pumping stations and fuel trains in an effort to hurt the Russian war machine - but also to disrupt daily life in Russia. Summer sees peak demand among Russia’s drivers and farmers for petrol.
Ukrainian drones have struck at least ten key Russian energy facilities this month alone, according to a CNN tally of attacks.
The latest, on Sunday, targeted a complex near St. Petersburg, setting off an extensive fire, according to geolocated video. The regional governor, Alexander Drozdenko, said fuel tanks at a port nearby had not been affected.
The strategy seems to be working. The refineries struck account for more than 44 million tons of products annually – more than 10% of Russia’s capacity - according to Ukraine’s intelligence service.
Among the targets - the giant Lukoil refinery in Volgograd, the largest in southern Russia. CNN geolocated clouds of smoke billowing from the plant, which was struck in the early hours of August 14. The Russian defense ministry acknowledged damage to the plant, which was attacked again on August 19.
A large refinery in Saratov, also in southern Russia, was attacked earlier this month. And fires continued to burn Saturday at another refinery – in Rostov region – more than two days after it was hit, according to Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems.
Gasoline shortages are reported in several Russian regions and in annexed Crimea. Its Russia-appointed governor, Sergey Aksyonov attributed gasoline shortages to “logistics issues,” and said the government was “taking all possible measures to purchase the necessary volumes of fuel and stabilize prices.”
An activist with a pro-Ukrainian group in Crimea, – Yellow Ribbon, - said on Telegram that the most popular grade of petrol had disappeared, and “the understanding that this is the result of the good drones work on the Russian economy does not allow me to be sad.”
Despite government subsidies, Russian consumers are paying more at the pump. Wholesale petrol prices on the St Petersburg exchange have risen by nearly 10% this month alone, and by about 50% since the beginning of the year.
Sun 24 August 2025
A dramatic rise in Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries has sent gasoline prices in Russia to record highs, despite the government banning petrol exports to cope with the crunch.
Ukraine is focusing drone attacks on refineries, pumping stations and fuel trains in an effort to hurt the Russian war machine - but also to disrupt daily life in Russia. Summer sees peak demand among Russia’s drivers and farmers for petrol.
Ukrainian drones have struck at least ten key Russian energy facilities this month alone, according to a CNN tally of attacks.
The latest, on Sunday, targeted a complex near St. Petersburg, setting off an extensive fire, according to geolocated video. The regional governor, Alexander Drozdenko, said fuel tanks at a port nearby had not been affected.
The strategy seems to be working. The refineries struck account for more than 44 million tons of products annually – more than 10% of Russia’s capacity - according to Ukraine’s intelligence service.
Among the targets - the giant Lukoil refinery in Volgograd, the largest in southern Russia. CNN geolocated clouds of smoke billowing from the plant, which was struck in the early hours of August 14. The Russian defense ministry acknowledged damage to the plant, which was attacked again on August 19.
A large refinery in Saratov, also in southern Russia, was attacked earlier this month. And fires continued to burn Saturday at another refinery – in Rostov region – more than two days after it was hit, according to Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems.
Gasoline shortages are reported in several Russian regions and in annexed Crimea. Its Russia-appointed governor, Sergey Aksyonov attributed gasoline shortages to “logistics issues,” and said the government was “taking all possible measures to purchase the necessary volumes of fuel and stabilize prices.”
An activist with a pro-Ukrainian group in Crimea, – Yellow Ribbon, - said on Telegram that the most popular grade of petrol had disappeared, and “the understanding that this is the result of the good drones work on the Russian economy does not allow me to be sad.”
Despite government subsidies, Russian consumers are paying more at the pump. Wholesale petrol prices on the St Petersburg exchange have risen by nearly 10% this month alone, and by about 50% since the beginning of the year.
A satellite image of an oil pumping station, part of Druzhba pipeline, struck by drones according to Ukraine's military, in the Tambov region of Russia on August 19, 2025. - Maxar Technologies/Reuters
Much of that increase is being passed on to consumers, with the Russian far east especially impacted. Analysts expect no relief for at least a month, even though the Russian government imposed a ban on exporting petrol in late July - which in turn contributed to a rise in exports of crude oil instead.
“Unfortunately, our forecast is unfavorable for now — we will most likely have to wait at least another month for prices to fall,” Sergey Frolov, managing partner at NEFT Research, told the Russian newspaper Kommersant. Kommersant said that the surge in prices this month was “due to accidents at oil refineries.”
The military is less affected because its demand is mainly for diesel, supplies of which are less impacted.
A new focus
The Ukrainian military and intelligence services have developed long-range warfare using drones, missiles and sabotage even as a very different conflict unfolds on the ground. The military claimed this month that long-range attacks this year have caused $74 billion in damage, with nearly 40% of strikes at least 500 kilometers inside Russia.
It’s not possible to verify such claims, but there is plenty of visual evidence of the damage done to refineries, storage tanks and pumping stations in recent months. Repairing such infrastructure is complicated by European and US sanctions
In a report on Thursday, Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service said that Russian companies were urgently purchasing petroleum from Belarus to address domestic shortages. The state-owned refiner in Belarus, Belneftekhim, says that in the last week “interest in Belarusian oil products on the Russian market has surged.”
Ukraine is also trying to impede Russian exports of oil. Last week its drones struck the Druzhba pipeline that supplies Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia – two EU countries whose governments remain on good terms with Moscow.
Both complained to the EU, saying that “with these attacks Ukraine is not primarily hurting Russia, but Hungary and Slovakia.”
US President Donald Trump also intervened, saying in a hand-written note to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban that he was “very angry” about the disruption.
But for Ukraine, under pressure on the frontlines, attacks on Russia’s vital energy industry are a way to counter Moscow’s narrative that its victory is ultimately inevitable.
Ukraine is trying to add to its arsenal of long-range weapons and last week unveiled a domestically produced cruise missile called the Flamingo. The manufacturer aims to produce 200 a month.
Missile expert Fabian Hoffman says that for a soft target such as distillation columns of Russian refineries, for example, the Flamingo’s lethal radius would be upwards of 38 meters. That would cause substantial damage.
Workers inspect a Flamingo cruise missile at Fire Point's secret factory in Ukraine on August 18, 2025. - Efrem Lukatsky/AP
“Each missile that successfully hits its target will cause much more damage [than existing Ukrainian weapons] with its 1,150-kilogram warhead,” says Mick Ryan, author of the blog Futura Doctrina.
“While I would not call it a silver bullet, it will have a significant impact on Ukraine’s capacity to hurt Russia,” not least because it’s hard to defend every oil refinery.
In the meantime, analysts do not expect thousands of Russian gas stations to run dry but believe the disruption will aggravate already high inflation and likely mean an extension of the ban on gasoline exports into the autumn, as the Kremlin tries to tamp down prices and ensure supply.
CNN’s Annoa Abekah-Mensah contributed to this report
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