Marine scientists urge overhaul of restoration rules to save oceans
Swansea University
image:
A photo of two people working to restore seagrass in Thorness, Isle of Wight.
view moreCredit: Francesca Page
Swansea University has led an international team of marine scientists and practitioners—spanning 18 countries—in calling for urgent reform to the licensing and regulation of marine and coastal restoration projects.
In a new paper published in Cell Reports Sustainability, they argue that outdated and overly complex permitting systems are slowing down vital restoration work at a time when oceans are facing an unprecedented decline.
Marine ecosystems, including coral reefs, mangroves, seagrasses, and salt marshes, are disappearing at alarming rates. Global initiatives, such as the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration and the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, have set ambitious targets to restore 30% of degraded ecosystems by 2030. However, the authors warn that current licensing procedures are preventing progress toward these goals.
Lead author Associate Professor Richard Unsworth from Swansea University, who helps lead a novel MSc programme in Marine Restoration and Conservation and is also Chief Scientific Officer at Project Seagrass, said: “The very regulations meant to protect marine life are often blocking the projects designed to restore it. We urgently need smarter, more flexible systems that encourage innovation rather than stifle it.”
Key Findings from the study:
- Marine restoration is young: Unlike land-based restoration, the science is still developing, and failures are common, but these failures are essential for learning.
- Regulations hinder progress: Permits are often slow, costly, or impossible to obtain, even for projects that would clearly benefit ecosystems.
- Climate change demands new thinking: Restoration must create resilient ecosystems for the future, not simply recreate the past.
- Equity matters: Indigenous and local communities must be included to ensure projects are fair and effective.
The paper also outlines six reforms to accelerate restoration:
- Embrace innovative tools such as assisted migration and genetic methods.
- Create “innovation sandpits” where new approaches can be tested safely.
- Establish designated restoration zones with streamlined approvals.
- Mandate transparent reporting of successes and failures.
- Align permits with long-term ecological timescales.
- Remove licensing fees and introduce incentives for restoration.
The authors stress that they are not calling for deregulation, but for evidence-based, adaptive licensing that supports innovation and long-term resilience. Without reform, international commitments to restore marine ecosystems risk falling short.
Co-author Dr Elizabeth Lacey from Project Seagrass said: “We have a narrow window to turn the tide on ocean decline. Smarter permitting could be the key to unlocking large-scale restoration at the speed the planet needs.”
Read the full paper, “Rethinking Marine Restoration Permitting to Urgently Advance Efforts”.
Journal
Cell Reports Sustainability
Method of Research
Computational simulation/modeling
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
Rethinking marine restoration permitting to urgently advance efforts
Article Publication Date
1-Oct-2025
Antarctic Sea ice emerges as key predictor of accelerated ocean warming
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Figure 1 Left: a strong relationship was found between historical Antarctic sea ice extent and future global ocean heat uptake across climate models. Figure 2 Right: combining this relationship with sea ice observations from satellites results in increased estimates of future ocean heat uptake by up to 14%.
view moreCredit: Linus Vogt
A groundbreaking study published today in the European Geosciences Union (EGU) journal Earth System Dynamics provides a critical and previously underestimated connection between Antarctic sea ice, cloud cover, and global warming. This research is important because it shows that a greater extent of Antarctic sea ice today, compared to climate model predictions, means we can expect more significant global warming in the coming decades.
The study, led by Linus Vogt from Sorbonne University, utilized an emergent constraint based on data from 28 Earth system models and satellite observations from 1980 to 2020. This constraint allowed the team to reduce uncertainty in climate projections and provide improved estimates of key climate variables. Their findings indicate that ocean heat uptake and the resulting thermal sea level rise by the year 2100 are projected to be 3–14% higher than the average from CMIP6, a leading collection of climate models. Furthermore, the projected cloud feedback is 19–31% stronger, which enhances climate sensitivity, and global surface warming is estimated to be 3–7% greater than previously thought.
The study found that the extent of Antarctic summer sea ice, which has been considered stable and only weakly connected to human-caused climate change, is a crucial indicator of the Southern Hemisphere’s climate. Models that start with a higher, more accurate representation of pre-industrial sea ice levels simulate colder surface waters, colder deep ocean temperatures, and thicker cloud cover in the mid-latitudes. These initial conditions then amplify warming responses under greenhouse gas forcing, meaning they lead to a more severe and accelerated warming effect than what was previously estimated. Essentially, the climate system's starting point makes it more sensitive to the impact of greenhouse gases.
“When we initially discovered this link between historical Antarctic sea ice and future global ocean heat uptake, we were surprised by the strength of the relationship. Antarctic sea ice covers less than 4% of the ocean’s surface, so how could it be so strongly associated with global ocean warming?” says Linus Vogt, who led the study at Sorbonne University in Paris, and is now based at New York University. “Only after a lot of analysis did we understand the full implications of the sea ice-ocean-atmosphere coupling which is responsible for these global changes.”
This relationship isn't merely correlative: it is mechanistically explained through ocean-atmosphere feedback. Higher sea ice extent enhances cloud cover, which has a cooling effect overall by reducing incoming solar radiation. Greater sea ice loss in the coming decades is thus linked to larger reductions of clouds, stronger surface warming, and enhanced ocean heat uptake. As a result, the baseline state of sea ice and deep ocean temperatures in models effectively preconditions the magnitude of warming, cloud feedback, and heat uptake in the future.
“While it has long been known that accurately representing clouds is crucial for climate projections, our study highlights that it is equally important to also accurately simulate the surface and deep ocean circulation and its interaction with sea ice” says Jens Terhaar, a senior scientist at the division of Climate and Environmental Physics at the University of Bern who initiated the study at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in the USA.
Under future climate change scenarios, models with greater historical sea ice tend to lose more sea ice by 2100, contributing to stronger radiative feedback. This stronger feedback leads to a stronger atmospheric and oceanic warming, especially across the Southern Hemisphere.
Implications for policy and science
This study provides evidence that current models may be underestimating future warming and ocean heat storage. It shows that models tend to simulate a too warm Southern Ocean in the preindustrial state and therefore have too little warming potential. The findings also stress the importance of continued satellite monitoring and improved modelling of cloud processes and deep ocean hydrography, both of which significantly shape global climate projections.
The study warns that previous approaches, which relied on observed trends over limited timeframes, may have underestimated future warming due to their inability to capture systemic changes, or ‘regime shifts,’ that are now becoming more evident, such as the record-low Antarctic sea ice extent in 2023. Furthermore, these older constraint methods relied on trends over short historical windows (e.g. 1980–2015), which are sensitive to internal natural variability and may thus not be representative of future climate change.
“Several high-profile studies have used temperature trends over recent decades in an attempt to constrain future warming” says Vogt. “However, we now found that this approach can give misleading results. Accounting for the sea ice-related mechanism we identified leads to increased estimates of future ocean and atmospheric warming. This likely stronger warming calls for urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the increased heat waves, floods and ecosystem impacts associated with ocean warming.”
About the EGU
The European Geosciences Union (EGU) is Europe’s premier geosciences union, dedicated to the pursuit of excellence in the Earth, planetary, and space sciences for the benefit of humanity, worldwide. It is a non-profit interdisciplinary learned association of scientists founded in 2002 with headquarters in Munich, Germany. The EGU publishes a number of diverse scientific journals that use an innovative open access format and organises topical meetings plus education and outreach activities. Its annual General Assembly is the largest and most prominent European geosciences event, attracting more than 20,000 scientists from all over the world. The meeting’s sessions cover a wide range of topics, including volcanology, planetary exploration, the Earth’s internal structure and atmosphere, climate, energy, and resources.
If you wish to receive our press releases via email, please use the Press Release Subscription Form at https://www.egu.eu/news/subscription/. Subscribed journalists and other members of the media receive EGU press releases under embargo (if applicable) 24 hours in advance of public dissemination.
Journal
Earth System Dynamics
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Article Publication Date
2-Oct-2025
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