It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Tuesday, December 30, 2025
Platinum price set for biggest monthly gain in 39 years on EU auto policy boost
Platinum prices are on track for their strongest monthly rally in nearly four decades in December, fuelled by the EU’s U-turn on its 2035 combustion-engine ban, a tight supply backdrop and rising investment demand for precious metals.
Platinum and palladium, both used in autocatalysts that reduce car exhaust emissions, have surged this year as US tariff uncertainty and a rally in gold and silver helped offset long-term headwinds from the rise of electric vehicles.
The EU’s plan unveiled in December is “a steroid jab for PGMs, prolonging their use in catalytic converters”, analysts at Mitsubishi said.
“Not only is the extension indefinite, but the EU will require ongoing tighter emission levels, which by extension will require higher PGM loadings.”
Platinum, also used in other industries such as jewellery, is up 33% so far in December, its biggest jump since 1986, according to LSEG data.
After hitting a record high of $2,478.50 per ounce on Monday, the metal is heading for its biggest yearly growth on record of 146%. Its sister metals, palladium and rhodium, are up 80% and 95% respectively so far in 2025.
Both platinum and palladium also benefited from defensive stock-building and tighter supply in the regional physical markets due to outflows to the US as Washington included the metals on the US critical minerals list.
The market expects more clarity on US tariffs in January.
The start of PGMs futures trading in China a month ago gave another boost, attracting heavy speculative flows and prompting the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to adjust price limits.
These contracts are the first domestic price-hedging mechanism for the PGMs in the world’s second-largest economy, which is also the top PGMs consumer, relying heavily on imports.
“If Chinese spot import buying remains elevated, the major test for platinum group metals will likely come after there is clarity on US tariffs,” Macquarie analysts said.
(By Ashitha Shivaprasad, Pablo Sinha, Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Polina Devitt; Editing by Jan Harvey)
Nickel price hits nine-month high as Indonesia plans to cut output
Nickel smelter in Sorowako, Indonesia. (Image by Marcelo Coelho, courtesy of Vale).
Nickel hit the highest since March after top producer Indonesia flagged plans to cut supply in order to boost prices.
Output will be reduced in 2026 to better match demand with supply, said Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia, according to CNBC Indonesia. The Southeast Asian country’s production of the metal, which is used in both stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries, has surged this decade to almost 70% of the world’s total.
Nickel is still among this year’s weaker performers on the London Metal Exchange as demand from the battery sector continues to disappoint due to the rise of alternative chemistries. Supply from Indonesia has continued to rise even as prices dragged for much of the year, causing stockpiles in warehouses tracked by the LME to rise rapidly.
Indonesian production is now central to the outlook for nickel prices next year. The government is able to control supply by tightening the issuance of mining quotas, known locally as RKABs.
Nickel rose as much as 4.7% to $16,560 a ton on the LME, extending a rally that tracked other metals from mid-December.
Copper price racks up longest rally since 2017 with bulls at the helm
Copper recorded the longest winning run since 2017 in a December rally powered by the prospect of more stress in the supply chain.
The metal rose 2.7% to settle at $12,558.50 a ton, the eighth day of gains, with positive sentiment showing resilience. Traders have been rushing metal to the US in anticipation of potential tariffs, tightening the market in the rest of the world.
Copper hit a record just below $13,000 a ton Monday in an end-of-year surge, before paring gains. Futures have rallied by more than 40% this year, setting up the biggest annual advance since 2009. A weaker US dollar — which makes metals less costly for buyers in other currencies — also has helped to bolster the gains, with a gauge of the greenback losing about 8% in 2025.
Supply issues have dominated metals this year, with copper mines from Indonesia and Chile to the Democratic Republic of the Congo suffering accidents. Aluminum production, meanwhile, is under threat from higher energy costs and supply limits in China, while zinc mines have also been disrupted.
For copper, it’s the threat of US import tariffs that remain the major driver. Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. warned in November there would be an extreme shortage of the metal in the rest of the world in 2026.
In the coming months, copper is likely “to be led by sentiment from investors over US copper specific tariffs, with focus on regional levels of global stocks and material entering the US, rather than underlying global fundamentals,” according to Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals analyst at StoneX Financial Ltd.
The premium for March copper futures on Comex over comparable contracts on the London Metal Exchange has come down in recent days, but inventories in the US exchange are still rising, she said. Along with a “warming” macroeconomic outlook and supply risks, “the narrative hasn’t changed for copper with this perfect storm situation” seen throughout the fourth quarter, Scott-Gray said.
All other metals on the exchange rose, led by nickel, after top producer Indonesia flagged plans to cut supply in order to boost prices
Silver price: Here’s what to watch for after wild ride past $80
Silver’s exceptional volatility in recent days has captured the zeitgeist — with even the likes of Elon Musk drawing attention to the metal’s ferocious rally to all-time highs.
The metal rose to a record above $84 an ounce early Monday, before promptly crashing close to $70 in thin, post-holiday trading. It was one of silver’s largest price reversals ever.
Prices remain up more than 150% this year. Now the big question is: where does silver go from here?
Here are key charts to watch in the silver market to evaluate what happens next.
Chinese buying
Surging investor interest in China has been a key driver of silver prices in recent days. Speculators piled into the precious metal, mirroring a similar dynamic playing out in platinum. Elevated buying in the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s silver contract in December has pushed premiums to a record high, dragging other international benchmarks along.
The blistering rally provoked the country’s only pure-play silver fund to turn away new customers last week, after repeated risk warnings went unheeded. The fund’s manager announced the unusual step Friday after multiple actions — from tighter trading rules to cautionary advice about “unsustainable” gains — failed to quell an eruption of interest fueled by social media.
ETF inflows
Holdings in physical-backed silver exchange-traded funds have surged this year, rising by more than 150 million ounces. The total amount of metal held by the funds is still below a peak set during a Reddit-driven retail investment surge in 2021, but the inflows have been instrumental in eroding available supplies in an already tight market. Holdings in the funds have risen every month but one this year, according to Bloomberg calculations.
Technical indicators, margins
Silver prices jumped more than 25% in December alone, on track for the biggest monthly increase since 2020. The speed of the gains meant some technical indicators were signaling that prices had run too far, too quickly. The metal’s relative strength index — a gauge of buying and selling momentum — has stayed above 70 for most of the past few weeks. A reading higher than 70 usually indicates that too many investors bought silver in a short period.
Some exchanges are moving to rein in risk amid heightened volatility. The margins for some Comex silver futures contracts will be raised from Monday, according to a statement from CME Group Inc. That’s adding to headwinds since traders will need to put up more cash to keep their positions open. Some speculators won’t want to do that and will be forced to shrink or close their trades instead.
Options frenzy
One indication of speculative fervor has been the level of buying for call options, both on silver futures and related ETFs. Call options, which give the buyer the ability to buy a security at a pre-determined price level, are typically seen as a cheap way to bet on market upside.
For iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the largest silver ETF, total call volume hit the highest since 2021 last week. The cost of buying calls on silver futures relative to the cost of buying equivalent puts, which protect against price declines, also jumped to historical highs in December.
Borrowing costs
Thanks to a tariff-related trade, much of the world’s available silver still remains in New York warehouses. Meanwhile, the market is awaiting the outcome of a US Section 232 probe into critical minerals, which could lead to levies or other trade restrictions on the metal.
The surge of metal into the US pushed the London market into a full blown squeeze in October, and borrowing costs there still remain well above their normal levels of close to zero. That helped set the stage for increased volatility and frequent price spikes.
Catching up with gold
Precious metals generally have seen a surge in investment demand this year, supported by a sagging US dollar, President Donald Trump’s aggressive moves to remake global trade and threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence.
Gold was the first to rally, benefiting additionally from strong buying by global central banks. Some market watchers hold as a rule of thumb that when gold makes a decisive move, silver will eventually move twice as far in the same direction — this year, of course, they would have been right.
Many investors also track the ratio between the two commodities. After gold’s initial surge in the early months of this year, that ratio stretched above 100 to 1, signaling to some that it was time to buy the white metal. But in recent weeks, the ratio has rapidly shifted lower.
Copper bull statue in Shanghai. Stock image.
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