Africa Swine Fever: Is China downplaying another disease outbreak?

China might praise its own success in its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, but it remains quieter about its fight against a rampant African Swine Fever outbreak at home.



China is the world's top pork consumer

During a teleconference more than two years ago, Chinese Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua urged health authorities to step up efforts to rein in a growing outbreak despite initial "positive results," and suggested that "enhancing quarantine and monitoring" measures would help prevent the spread of the virus.

Hu's comments came before the discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Instead, he was referring to a different, far deadlier disease: African Swine Fever (ASF) — an illness that affects pigs.

Chinese officials first identified ASF in 2018 in Liaoning, a coastal province in China's northeast. Unlike SARS-CoV-2, ASF does not threaten human health. The disease, however, is highly virulent in pigs and mortality rates approach 100%.

ASF is of particular concern in China, the world's top pork consumer and home to roughly half of the world's pigs. Given the country's enormous pig population, ASF could turn China into a significant reservoir of disease and pose a threat to China's neighbors in the region if it becomes endemic.

Threats to food security

This year, China reported 12 ASF cases to the OIE, the intergovernmental body that tracks animal diseases, down from a high of 105 in 2018. Except for a small bump in cases earlier this year, ASF numbers have consistently declined, according to official figures.

Some industry experts, however, believe that China may be obfuscating African Swine Fever's actual toll on hog herds by under-reporting infection numbers, and painting an artificially rosy picture.


The cost of pork in China is an economic bellwether. Tapping into China's strategic pork stockpile allowed Beijing to stabilize pork prices from a high last year, but ASF could still cause headaches of epic proportions.

A report by the Asian Development Bank estimated the outbreak's economic cost in China last year at $50 to $121 billion (€42.5 to €103 billion) with a minimum loss of 25-55% of Chinese pig herds since 2018. The report also said ASF threatens "increases in poverty, vulnerability, and food insecurity" and poses a "substantial" risk to climate change resilience and human health.

The burden disproportionately falls on smallholder pig farmers.
Food safety standards fall through the cracks

Measures such as vigilant herd monitoring and the culling of pigs that exhibit ASF symptoms could help to contain China's current outbreak. But containing ASF in China is not an easy task.

Smallholder pig farming, defined as backyard farms of 50 pigs or less, is an economic safety net or significant source of income for tens of millions of Chinese, and accounts for nearly a third of national pig production. But the practice may be driving China's ASF outbreak.

Many smallholder pig farmers rely at least in part on swill — food scraps and kitchen waste — to feed their hogs. While swill is an economical source of fodder, biosecurity or food safety standards are not always reinforced.

Consequently, swill is a particularly potent transmission vector for African Swine Fever.

If ASF is suspected locally, some farmers could sell off pigs before herds exhibit the disease, helping disseminate the lethal virus more widely throughout the country.

ASF vaccines 'years away'

Linda Dixon, an ASF expert at The Pirbright Institute, an infectious disease research group, said that due to the complexity of ASF, it has proven "very difficult to make a vaccine that's effective" against the disease.

Although there are several ongoing ASF vaccine trials, a commercialized vaccine is at best "one to two years away" if current prototypes prove safe and effective, she said.

Paul Sundberg, the Executive Director of the Swine Health Information Center, said there might even be vaccines in use in China that prevent some pigs from dying, but "cause low-level infection." Ultimately, these mystery vaccines make controlling the disease "more difficult."

 

Germany to shut controversial Gorleben nuclear waste facility

After serving for decades as a storage location for German radioactive nuclear waste, the government said it would close the Gorleben mine. Locals and environmental groups have protested against the facility for years.

  

Germany has been searching for a permanent spot to store its nuclear waste for decades

The Gorleben mine in the German state of Lower Saxony will close, the country's Environment Ministry announced on Friday.

The mine in the Wendland region became the center of a long-running controversy after it was proposed as a possible site for the disposal of radioactive nuclear waste.

"This ends the chapter on the Gorleben repository. I hope in Wendland wounds opened by the decades-long argument over Gorleben will now be able to heal," State Secretary at the Environment Ministry Jochen Flasbarth said.

The Gorleben mine controversy

Gorleben had been earmarked as a site for nuclear waste disposal almost 40 years ago.

But locals rejected the decision, arguing that the salt in the ground could weaken containment structures and cause radioactive leaks. The site became the focus of Germany's anti-nuclear movement with activists staging sit-in protests and blocking trains bringing containers of nuclear waste to the facility.

Protesters often slowed the delivery of trains bringing Germany's radioactive waste to Gorleben

In the fall of 2020, Germany's Federal Company for Radioactive Waste Disposal (BGE) announced that large parts of Germany met the geological criteria for a nuclear repository but the Gorleben salt dome — the site of the mine ­ — was not among them.

The mine was then removed from the list of potential permanent sites for nuclear waste disposal last year due to geological concerns.

Prior to this decision, the mine had been largely at a standstill since 2013. Almost all the equipment and machinery at the mine have been removed.

BGE, a federally owned company, will be responsible for the decommissioning of the mine, the Environment Ministry said.

The Gorleben mine in Lower Saxony was taken off the list of potential permanent waste storage facilities

Germany's nuclear waste problem

Germany is seeking a safe place to store 1,900 containers of radioactive waste. The containers make up only 5% of the country's nuclear waste but 99% of its radioactivity, according to BGE chairman Stefan Studt.

BGE has named 90 areas around the country as potential places for permanent waste disposal.

The sites are currently being vetted taking into account a number of factors, including population density.

The company says it needs to find a location by 2031 and hopes to begin storing containers of radioactive waste at the site by 2050.

kmm/sms (dpa, AFP)

 

Bangkok’s taxi graveyard garden: Covid-hit cabbies turn to growing vegetables

Issued on: 17/09/2021 - 

Video by:

FRANCE 24

One Bangkok taxi company has found an innovative way to make ends meet amid the Covid-19 pandemic. With many drivers put out of work by lockdowns and restrictions and their cars left idle, they have transformed a taxi graveyard into a burgeoning vegetable garden to feed employees.

 

Former Liberal MP Sohi aspires to be Edmonton’s next mayor

By Jeff Labine. Published on Sep 3, 2021 3:46pm

Edmonton mayoral candidate Amarjeet Sohi, a former Liberal MP, outside a coffee shop on Aug. 26 (Jeff Labine/iPolitics)

Amarjeet Sohi doesn’t miss federal politics.

The 57-year-old former bus driver is one of 10 candidates vying to succeed Edmonton Mayor Don Iveson in the municipal election on Oct. 18.

Sohi served two terms as a city councillor after getting elected for the first time in 2007.

In 2015, he won as the Liberal candidate for Edmonton—Mill Woods. He played a key role in Justin Trudeau’s government by taking on the portfolios of Infrastructure and Communities, and Natural Resources.

Sohi would only serve one term in the House of Commons after losing to Conservative MP Tim Uppal in 2019.

Sohi said little about his next political move until last May, when he announced his mayoral campaign.

With a federal election underway, Sohi said his sights are set solely on Edmonton.

“I honestly don’t miss being part of partisan politics,” he told iPolitics. “I really enjoyed working as a member of Parliament, as a minister, … but I did not enjoy the lifestyle of going back and forth (to Ottawa) and travelling throughout the country.”

Sohi’s return to municipal politics comes during significant changes in both Edmonton and Calgary.

Iveson and Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi, both seen as progressive mayors, won’t be running again. Iveson made his decision public in November last year, and Nenshi made his intentions known in April.

The mayors of Alberta’s largest cities often butted heads with Jason Kenney’s provincial government.

A significant point of contention was the United Conservative Party’s decision to reduce Edmonton and Calgary’s base funding of $500 million per year, which is split between the two, by $45 million, thus ending years of negotiations to give the two cities more say in how they spend their money, according to a CBC report.

“We had no sense that the city-charter fiscal framework was going to be ripped up today,” Iveson told reporters afterward.

When asked how he’d handle the situation, Sohi said he’d start by making sure Edmontonians understand what’s at stake.

“If city-infrastructure funding is being cut back, that means you’re going to see cracks in roads, traffic is going to see gridlock, transit systems will not be expanded,” he said. “Those are the kinds of conversations I want to have with Edmontonians and the province. (I want to) find commonalities around those issues.”

If elected, Sohi said he’d try to collaborate with all the city’s partners, including the provincial government.

Indigenous resistance has cut U.S. and Canada's annual emissions

A new study shows indigenous resistance cut emissions by at least 25%.

“From an Indigenous perspective, when we are confronting the climate crisis we are inherently confronting the systems of colonization and white supremacy as well,” said Dallas Goldtooth of Indigenous Environmental Network. “In order to do that, you have to reevaluate how you relate to the world around you and define what your obligations are to the world around you. It’s more than just stopping fracking development and pipelines and it’s more than just developing clean energy, it’s about actually fundamentally changing how we see the world itself.”
https://grist.org/.../indigenous-resistance-has-cut-u-s.../

GRIST.ORG

 THE DECOLONIZED TAROT PROJECT

The Magician card.

Card: Magician

Artist Reina iris

Art direction thiha

Country Myanmar

Zawgyi

Zawgyi are legendary semi-immortal beings believed to be both mystics and alchemists. They figure prominently in the mythology and folklore of the Myanmar people. The word is believed to be derived from the Indian word “yogi” and similarly the Zawgyi is credited with many supernatural talents.

The reason for their red appearance is attributed to mercury; from the anatomy of an ordinary human being, they transformed into a Zawgyi. As a Zawgyi, they are believed to have 5 supernatural powers – the ability to fly, travel beneath the earth and oceans, perform various forms of divination, necromancy and resurrection as well.

Legend have them living alone in an invisible mythical forest set deep in Himalaya Mountains. Here, the Zawgi forage herbs for magical purposes. After an ardous and extensive search, they obtain the mythical Philosopher's stone and thus gain the status of  Zawgyi.

To satisfy their desires, it is said that by touching the Nariphon (Tuyaung Fruit Trees) with their magical wands, they are able to bring to life illusory females" (Thuyaung-mèý) as these trees will bear female-shaped fruits. They spend their lives searching for various herbs to treat pain, suffering, illness, and other forms of ailments brought on by magical spells.

The magic wands are used primarily to grind the medicinal herbs and roots, although these wands also double up as walking sticks, especially in negotiating very rugged footpaths.

The Zawgyi Dance reproduces many aspects of the legend; the red clothing, the magical wand, the journey through the forest among other significant characteristics.

RowenCreator

September 17, 2021https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/seamstarot/seams-tarot-3/

BERNIE SANDERS ENDORSES NDP

 

RETWEET

Wall Street Journal's Facebook Files series prompts comparisons to Big Tobacco


Analysis by Brian Stelter, CNN Business

WSJ: Facebook knows Instagram is toxic for teen girls

New York (CNN)All week long, The Wall Street Journal's "Facebook Files" series has invited comparisons of the social media platform to tobacco companies.
The Journal relied on internal company documents it obtained to show Facebook (FB) knows, "in acute detail," about the problems with its platforms. The assorted harms to users are well-documented. But, in the words of the Journal, Facebook "hasn't fixed" the flaws.
So: Social platforms are addictive and often harmful. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat, told the Journal "Facebook seems to be taking a page from the textbook of Big Tobacco — targeting teens with potentially dangerous products while masking the science in public."
U.S. Rep. Ken Buck, a Republican, tweeted "Big Tech has become the new Big Tobacco. Facebook is lying about how their product harms teens."

The series matters because it comes with evidence."Time and again, the documents show, Facebook's researchers have identified the platform's ill effects," the Journal says. "Time and again, despite congressional hearings, its own pledges and numerous media exposés, the company didn't fix them. The documents offer perhaps the clearest picture thus far of how broadly Facebook's problems are known inside the company, up to the chief executive himself."

Regarding the company's CEO, Friday's story had his name in the headline: "How Facebook Hobbled Mark Zuckerberg's Bid to Get America Vaccinated."

Here's where to get caught up on the entire series.

This was a very big week for the Journal. Is there more reporting work to do? Definitely. My sense is the series has given the newsroom a jolt of inspiration, and this may not be the Journal's last word on the Facebook Files.

Facebook's new response

The company's response to the five-part series was measured during the workweek. Facebook could have deployed spokespeople and surrogates onto TV shows, for example, but it did not. I noticed Joe Scarborough on MSNBC saying "Facebook reminds me of big tobacco," because "they know their product is damaging to people."

There was no rebuttal from the company on his show.

But on Saturday, Facebook vice president of global affairs Nick Clegg issued a seven-paragraph blog post, objecting to some parts of the Journal series.

"At the heart of this series is an allegation that is just plain false: that Facebook conducts research and then systematically and willfully ignores it if the findings are inconvenient for the company. This impugns the motives and hard work of thousands of researchers, policy experts and engineers at Facebook who strive to improve the quality of our products, and to understand their wider (positive and negative) impact," Clegg said.

Clegg deplored what he called the "impugning" of Facebook's motives. Perhaps responding to some observers' concerns the company will stop doing internal research since some of it was leaked to the Journal, Clegg said, "We will continue to invest in research into these serious and complex issues. We will continue to ask ourselves the hard questions. And we will continue to improve our products and services as a result."

He also seemed to address the comparisons of Facebook to Big Tobacco. "The truth is that research into the impact social media has on people is still relatively nascent and evolving, and social media itself is changing rapidly," he said.

FB disinformation doesn't happen in a vacuum

Journal reporter Jeff Horwitz, who has earned many plaudits this week, tweeted Friday "some Facebook folks have told me we should pay more attention to how the interplay between social media and cable TV news affected the public discussion of Covid vaccines, including on the company's platforms." He agreed with that assessment, he said.

Former Twitter and Facebook executive Nu Wexler said he also concurred: "If we're measuring reach/engagement of health misinfo on FB, we need a way to compare it to Hannity's nightly audience or the impact of a governor/senator saying the same things IRL."

Further reading and listening

-- "There's a lot to unpack" from the "Facebook Files," CNN's Allison Morrow writes. "But one thing that stands out is just how blatantly Facebook's problems are documented, using the kind of simple, observational prose not often found in internal communications at multinational corporations."
-- Washington Post columnist Will Oremus says he sees a pattern emerging: "Facebook keeps researching its own harms -- and burying the findings."

-- Friday's "Files" story describes a gathering of Facebook leadership in and around its Menlo Park HQ early this month at which "the tone from some participants was, 'We created the machine and we can't control the machine,' one of the people said."

-- David Kirkpatrick, who wrote a "generally positive" (his words) book about FB a decade ago, says "the Journal series may bespeak a major shift, even for those who are jaded and expect little other than evasion and apathy from this shockingly-powerful company. The articles suggest it may start to be seen widely as an outlaw enterprise."

-- The Atlantic's Derek Thompson says the Journal series underscores that social media is "attention alcohol:" Like booze, he says, "social media seems to offer an intoxicating cocktail of dopamine, disorientation, and, for some, dependency."

-- On Monday the Journal will hold a live Q&A with several reporters about the "Facebook Files" findings. There is also a companion podcast series on Spotify.

A version of this article first appeared in the "Reliable Sources" newsletter. You can sign up for free right here.

Moving from fringe to 4th place, PPC complicates the Conservatives' path to power

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The rise of Maxime Bernier's party could cost the Conservatives some seats, polls suggest

John Paul Tasker · CBC News · Posted: Sep 14, 2021 

Conservative leadership candidate Erin O'Toole, left, speaks as Maxime Bernier listens during the Conservative leadership debate in Saskatoon, Wednesday, November 9, 2016. (Liam Richards/Canadian Press)

At a recent campaign event, Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole couldn't quite bring himself to say the name of the man who could end up thwarting his shot at power.

People's Party of Canada (PPC) Leader Maxime Bernier has gone from leading a small fringe group with tepid support to heading up a right-wing party that, according to the CBC Poll Tracker, could have the fourth-highest share of the vote on Sept. 20.

After the last election campaign, a CBC News analysis showed that — even with its rather dismal level of support — the PPC likely cost the Conservatives seven seats in the House of Commons by splitting the vote (six seats went to the Liberals, one to the NDP). With polls suggesting PPC support is now well above the 1.6 per cent of the vote it got last time, its impact could be even greater in 2021.

When asked by CBC News recently what he plans to do to blunt Bernier's momentum and prevent a vote-splitting scenario that could hand Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau another term, O'Toole didn't say much — and never mentioned Bernier by name.

O'Toole was asked three questions about the former Conservative cabinet minister-turned PPC leader at a Sunday press conference and ducked every one of them.

"I remind Canadians, if you're tired of a Liberal government that's constantly in scandal, corrupt at its core with Mr. Trudeau's constant ethics investigations, there's one team and one leader that can replace him — Canada's Conservatives," O'Toole finally said when pressed.

His party's campaign material insists Canadians only have four choices in this election. "If you don't care about creating Canadian jobs and standing up to the Chinese Communist Party, you have three parties to choose from. If you do, you only have one choice – Canada's Conservatives," reads a recent press release.

While polls suggest some PPC support is coming from first-time or infrequent voters, there's no question the PPC is drawing at least some support from former Conservative voters.

"The Conservative party is no longer a conservative party," Craig Mostat, an-ex Conservative supporter of the PPC from Edmonton, told CBC News.

"They are bending over backwards to do everything the Liberals are doing," he said, referring to the party's more moderate brand of conservatism under O'Toole.

An outgoing Conservative MP, David Yurdiga, is backing Bernier and Shawn McDonald, the local PPC candidate in his Fort McMurray, Alta. riding.

"We're the true conservatives. We're bringing people home," McDonald told the conservative online media outlet True North.

Some pollsters — notably those using more anonymous collection methods, like interactive voice response (IVR) — show higher levels of PPC support than those firms using live telephone agents or an online forum to survey the public on their voting choices.

While the country's major polling firms can't agree on just how much support the PPC enjoys, it's clear that the party is much more of a force now than it was in the 2019 campaign

"There's definitely a lot more people jumping on the PPC train even compared to two months ago. It's definitely getting bigger," said Rodolpho Menjivar, an infrequent Alberta voter who has voted Liberal in the past but plans to pick the PPC this time.

"People are looking for another option because they don't like what everyone else is doing."

• With one week to go before election day, here's what to watch in the final stretch 

• Are the Conservatives worried about the People's Party of Canada — or should they be?

• Protests at Trudeau rallies an evolution of far-right ideology, says expert

Philippe Fournier, a polls analyst with 338Canada, said the PPC's strength could spell trouble for the Conservatives in close races in Prairie cities like Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg. In 2019, the party only narrowly won seats like Manitoba's Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley and Alberta's Edmonton Centre over the Liberals.

"The PPC could get more votes than the Bloc Quebecois in this election, which was unfathomable only one year ago," Fournier said. "We can say with confidence that many of their supporters used to vote Conservative."

Failure to launch — then a sudden resurgence

Bernier's dramatic break from the Conservative party in 2018 was a troubling development for some Conservative operatives who feared a fractured right-centre vote would guarantee Liberal victories for years to come.

At the time, however, most Conservative insiders — especially those who knew him from his time as a Harper-era cabinet minister — were dismissive of Bernier's potential political impact.

They feared a splintered vote but they didn't think Bernier was well-equipped to get a new party off the ground and compete meaningfully in enough ridings to make much of a difference.

The PPC's poor showing in 2019 — Bernier lost the Beauce seat he'd held for years — bolstered the naysayers.

But the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a political realignment, breathing new life into a party that looked all but dead.

Public health measures like lockdowns slowed the spread of the virus — and likely saved lives — but they also prompted anger and frustration among some Canadians who saw their livelihoods destroyed as economic and social life ground to a halt.

The PPC becomes the no-lockdowns party

The federal Conservative Party and some of its provincial counterparts, like the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, were generally deferential to public health officials who called for restrictions — a sensible position during a pandemic but one that also generated backlash from people who bristle at limits on their freedoms.

The PPC welcomed those voters with open arms. A party promising a radically smaller government with fewer regulations was suddenly embraced by people who saw government as an oppressive force.

Bernier, a libertarian who has long railed against government overreach, became a champion of the "no more lockdowns" crowd, routinely appearing at well-attended protests against these restrictions.

Anti-lockdown and anti-mask protesters take part in a rally outside the Alberta Legislature in Edmonton on Monday, April 12, 2021. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau's push for a vaccine mandate for federal public servants and the travelling public has also given Bernier another cause as he warns of what he calls Canada's descent into "tyranny."

"We are the only national political party against vaccine passports. We believe in freedom of choice — everyone must be able to decide for themselves," Bernier said a recent rally.

O'Toole is opposed to Trudeau's proposed vaccine mandate but has said he'd let provinces introduce their own vaccine passport programs.

Bernier's pitch to voters also includes a plan to "defund" the CBC, balance the budget quickly, cut all foreign aid, "say no to the UN" — a body he calls "a dysfunctional organization" — and pull out of the Paris climate accord.

"More and more people are coming on our side. You can count on us," Bernier said.

But it's Bernier's strident opposition to the idea of vaccine passports — credentials people vaccinated against COVID-19 can show to businesses to make everyday activities safer — that attracted Menjivar.

"The particular thing I like about them is that they're a no to vaccine passports and mask mandates. I don't believe in mandatory stuff forced on people and not being able to go places if I don't have a vaccine," he said.

"People just want to be left alone and not be called the bad guy for not getting their vaccine. We just want to live and be able to do everything we did two years ago."

Fournier said the polls suggest it's Bernier's anti-vaccination passport rhetoric driving the party's rise.

"We know from polls before the election that anti-vaxxers were about eight to 10 per cent of the Canadian population," Fournier said. "He is taking his message to new heights to appeal to these people.

"And if he goes from 1.6 per cent in 2019 to seven or eight or more per cent in this election, it would be an incredible achievement."

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

John Paul Tasker

Parliamentary Bureau

J.P. Tasker is a senior writer in the CBC's parliamentary bureau in Ottawa. He can be reached at john.tasker@cbc.ca.

Conservatives wouldn't meet Canada's new UN climate target. Here's what that could mean

Paris Agreement doesn’t include sanctions, but Canada could face tariffs, reputational damage, experts say

Emily Chung · CBC News · Posted: Sep 15, 2021 

Conservative Party of Canada Leader Erin O'Toole has indicated his party's emissions target is not Canada's current target of a 40 to 45 per cent reduction compared to 2005 by 2030, but the 30 per cent target set under Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper. 

(Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)

If the Conservatives are elected as Canada's government this fall, they've indicated they won't meet Canada's current greenhouse gas emissions targets under the Paris Agreement.

What does that mean? And what could the consequences be? Here's a closer look.
What kinds of targets do countries set under the Paris Agreement?

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, Canada and 195 other countries have committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions enough to limit global warming to well below 2 C, and ideally 1.5 C compared to pre-industrial temperatures, in order to prevent the worst impacts of climate change, from extreme weather damage to rising seas.

As part of the United Nations treaty, which is legally binding, countries are required to submit plans and targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions called nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in order to reach the global target as soon as possible.
What are Canada's Paris Agreement targets — and why have they changed?

Canada's original NDC, submitted by Stephen Harper's Conservative government, committed to cutting annual emissions 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, from 732 megatonnes to 513 megatonnes.

However, under the Paris Agreement, countries submit new, "increasingly ambitious" NDCs every five years, and were required to send new ones in by 2020, according to the United Nations.

In April, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Canada's new target was to reduce emissions by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, requiring emissions to drop to at least 439 megatonnes by the end of the decade. The target was formally submitted to the United Nations in July.

But wait, didn't Erin O'Toole say the Conservatives will meet the Paris objectives?

Yes, the Conservative leader has said that throughout the election campaign. He clarified on Aug. 27, "We will meet the Paris objectives that were actually set by the tail end of the Conservative government and signed onto by the Liberal government" — that is, the outdated 30 per cent emissions cut, rather than Canada's current commitment of 40 per cent.

Kathryn Harrison, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia, said she thinks O'Toole's claim is misleading. "In fact, that's not Canada's Paris Agreement target anymore."

O'Toole would cut emissions to meet target set by Harper, rejects Liberals' new, more aggressive goal

Trudeau pledges to slash greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2030

The Liberals, NDP and Green Party all say they will meet or exceed the new 40 to 45 per cent target.

O'Toole told undecided voters this week that he is not going to try to out-target his opponents just to get elected, but was proposing a plan that he felt his government could hit without damaging the economy.

"What we have to do is make sure we deliver," he said.

Can the new commitment be changed or withdrawn?

Yes. "A Party may at any time adjust its existing nationally determined contribution," the Paris Agreement says, "with a view to enhancing its level of ambition." That is, while changes are allowed, downgrading is against the spirit of the agreement.

CBC News reached out to the Conservative Party of Canada to ask if they planned to change or withdraw their 30 per cent commitment, but they had not responded to the questions by Wednesday. (They did send a quote of Erin O'Toole talking in general terms about Conservative climate change policy).That said, they've indicated that any change would not increase Canada's level of ambition in cutting greenhouse gases.
If a target is lowered, can a country be penalized?

No, not under the Paris Agreement itself.

Jutta Brunnée, professor and dean in the University of Toronto's faculty of law, said countries' legally binding obligation under the Paris Agreement is to prepare and communicate their climate targets and plans. That forces countries to be transparent about their climate action, or lack thereof.

Tipping point? Experts say the Paris agreement changed the climate on climate
ANALYSISFederal climate platforms: What's in them and what sets each apart

But the targets and plans are not themselves legally binding. That means countries can technically downgrade their targets.

"They would not be violating an obligation under the Paris Agreement," Brunnée said, "but they would run counter to the entire normative architecture and the expectations that the agreement rests on."

What the reporting obligations do is make it clear to other countries if someone does set lower targets or fails to meet them.

"So it would become very public if a party went the opposite direction, so to speak," Brunnée said. "And that, I think, has actually proven to be a remarkably strong incentive, and also a kind of a mechanism to get parties to [do] their bit."




Is lowering the target worse than not meeting it?

"They're both equally bad," said Sébastien Jodoin, Canada Research Chair in human rights health and the environment at McGill University's faculty of law.

But they're also equally without penalties under the Paris Agreement.

It's worth noting that even prior to this election, under the Liberal government that set the new targets, Canada was not on track to meet them, according to a report from the Pembina Institute, an energy and climate think-tank.

A new report by the Pembina Institute suggests Canada isn’t on track to meet its climate change targets by 2030 and provinces need to take more responsibility in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 1:53

The lack of penalties for not fulfilling plans or meeting targets is, in fact, a key difference between the Paris Agreement and its predecessor, the Kyoto Protocol. This was so the Paris Agreement would be adopted by more countries. In fact, the penalties were the reason Canada withdrew from Kyoto in 2011 under Stephen Harper's Conservative government — by not meeting its targets, it was going to be found in non-compliance and would have had to pay $14 billion.
Could there be potential consequences outside the Paris Agreement itself?

Brunnée said governments could face a hit to their reputation domestically and internationally if they fail to meet the expectations of the Paris Agreement.

"I don't think that it looks good on any country," she said.

Lowering targets or explicitly failing to meet targets might also encourage other countries to follow suit, she said. "And if that were to happen, the entire edifice would potentially unravel… This would be something that the other parties [who signed the Paris Agreement] wouldn't take lightly."

To prevent or punish those who go against Paris Agreement expectations, other countries could impose carbon border adjustments, levies or tariffs, which would penalize trading partners that aren't reducing their emissions quickly enough, said Jason MacLean, assistant professor of law at the University of New Brunswick.

"So countries are still free to work either individually or in concert to try and put pressure on other countries [so] that they are living up to their pledges under the Paris Agreement."

ANALYSIS Fear of climate change rust belt has governments considering carbon border levy
ANALYSIS Fact check: have GHG emissions risen under Trudeau?

Jodoin said given that Canada is a trading nation and that our major trading partners, the European Union and the United States, have been releasing more ambitious emissions targets, "that's a real risk for Canada."

But Canada also faces risks domestically, where laws such as the Charter of Rights and Freedoms have built-in penalties for violation, Jodoin said. Activists have launched lawsuits against the government over its alleged failure to take enough action on climate change, one of which is planning an appeal to the Supreme Court after being dismissed by Federal Court in October.

Jodoin said Canada's approach to its Paris obligations could give activists extra ammunition: "You're exposing yourself to the possibility of constitutional litigation."