Afghanistan and the World: The National, Regional, and Global Impact

January 26, 2022

The Emeritus Chair in Strategy at CSIS is issuing a summary overview on the impact of the U.S. and Afghan central government defeat by the Taliban, on the image of the U.S. in the world, on Afghanistan’s potential global and regional impacts, and on Afghanistan’s probable impact on regional and global extremism and terrorism. It also addresses the Taliban’s probable impact on Afghanistan and some of the key lessons the U.S. and its strategic partners should learn from the war.

This briefing is entitled Afghanistan and the World: The National, Regional, and Global Impact, and is available for download at https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220126_Cordesman_Afghanistan_Impact.pdf?jo96RwbKooSqpnpivwh9wqv8kSzSHda2.

The briefing estimates that China and Russia – along with other regional powers – will attempt to exploit the situation and that the primary threats of the regional powers around and near Afghanistan will be their own internal instability, divisions, and weak governance.

It highlights failures in the U.S. approach to strategic partnership with Afghanistan and the failures of the U.S. to understand that it faced a major and growing insurgency rather than a terrorist and extremist threat, along with the U.S. failure to address the corruption, incompetence, and weakness of the Afghan central government.

It also argues that the U.S. defeat is likely to have only a limited strategic impact on the reputation of the U.S. in most of the world and that global attention had already discounted the U.S. defeat after the U.S. had announced its withdrawal and the peace negotiations with the Taliban. It also argues that the primary causes of that defeat were the failures of the Afghan government and political culture and that the governments of fragile states are not limited to only the threat posed by terrorism and extremism – with civil war and major insurgencies – caused largely by the failures of national governments – driving instability and unrest.

An e-book length analysis entitled Learning the Right Lessons from the Afghan War – that addresses the data and sources used in this summary briefing in depth – is available on the CSIS website at https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/210907_Cordesman_Right_Lessons.pdf?TOANXtTYP7mVmaTy5bapzai637ylirPt.

Comments should be addressed to Anthony H. Cordesman (acordesman@gmail.com)

Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Emeritus Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. He has served as a consultant on Afghanistan to the United States Department of Defense and the United States Department of State.

Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2022 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

Photo: HECTOR RETAMAL/AFP/Getty Images

UN Officials Warn of 'Record-Shattering Month' for Civilian Deaths in Yemen

Following deadly strikes by the Saudi-led coalition, Oxfam is calling on the U.N. Security Council to condemn attacks on Yemenis and to "inject new urgency" into peace talks.


Yemeni medical teams carry body bags containing corpses of those killed in airstrikes on a prison on the weekend ahead of a mass funeral in the northern Yemeni province on January 25, 2022. 

(Photo: STR/AFP via Getty Images)


JESSICA CORBETT

January 26, 2022


As United Nations officials projected Tuesday that the civilian death toll from the Saudi-led coalition's strikes on Yemen will break records this month, Oxfam shared the group's difficulties providing aid in the war-torn country and urged action from the U.N. Security Council.

"Each night we go to bed and just pray we wake up in the morning."

"People are really struggling. Last night we had more airstrikes. Everyone is frightened," Abdulwasea Mohammed, Oxfam's Yemen advocacy, campaigns, and media manager, said from Sanaa, Yemen's capital.

"Children are traumatized—we tell them don't worry, it's all fine, but they wake up to the sound of massive explosions just like we do," he continued. "Each night we go to bed and just pray we wake up in the morning."

Mohammed explained that "we've lived with war for nearly seven years but the last few days have been the worst and I'm worried about what the next hours will bring."

The recent escalation has forced Oxfam to suspend work in some areas due to safety concerns and restrictions on movement. Fuel shortages and soaring prices also threaten aid deliveries of essentials like food, water, and medicine.

"The violence must end immediately so families can feel safe in their homes, and humanitarian agencies can resume lifesaving work," Mohammed declared. "But we need more than a ceasefire, as in the past these have not led to sustainable peace."

"The U.N. Security Council needs to inject new urgency into talks to ensure an end to the conflict and all sides must agree to prioritize the lives of Yemenis above all else," he said.

Related Content

Saudi Bombings Kill Scores of Civilians—Including Children—in Yemen
Andrea Germanos

Mohammed pointed out that "in recent weeks, the U.N. Security Council has reacted strongly to violence against civilians in other countries emanating from Yemen, but not to widespread attacks taking place in Yemen."

"To fulfill its responsibility to uphold international peace and security," he said, "the council must demonstrate the same concern for Yemenis as it does for others across the region and the world."

U.N. Security Council President Mona Juul of Norway said last week that the global body's members "condemned in the strongest terms the heinous terrorist attacks" in United Arab Emirates on January 17 as well as in other sites in Saudi Arabia. The statement did not mention UAE and Saudi actions that harm Yemenis.

MSNBC columnist Trita Parsi on Tuesday highlighted a similar behavior by the U.S., which holds one of the five permanent seats on the council:


When Yemeni Houthi rebels struck Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, killing three people on January 17, the Biden administration strongly condemned what it called "terrorist attacks." It was the 14th time the State Department had condemned the Houthis since President Joe Biden entered the White House.

Yet, days later, when Saudi Arabian airstrikes killed at least 70 civilians in Yemen, including three children, the Biden team only mustered a meek call for all parties to de-escalate. Despite the carnage, Biden sustained his perfect record of never condemning Saudi Arabia for its devastation of Yemen, let alone calling it terrorism.

Given that "the Saudis, the Houthis, and the Emiratis have all been accused of committing war crimes," and "none of them pose a threat to the United States," Parsi argued, "the only justified American involvement would be to help negotiate an end to the conflict."

Hans Grundberg, the United Nations special envoy for Yemen, and David Gressly, the U.N. resident and humanitarian coordinator for the country, also encouraged peace talks alongside a bleak warning.

"We are alarmed by the escalating spiral of violence in Yemen that continues to harm civilians and is spilling over its borders," they said in a joint statement Tuesday. "January will almost certainly be a record-shattering month for civilian casualties in Yemen."

"The scale of the escalation is exacerbating an already severe humanitarian crisis in Yemen, complicating efforts to provide relief, threatening regional security, and undermining efforts to bring an end to the conflict."

Grundberg and Gressly reiterated U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres' condemnation of the Saudi-led coalition's January 21 airstrike on a prison and migrant detention facility that reportedly killed 91 people and injured 226 others—which, they noted, was "the worst civilian casualty incident in Yemen in three years."

"Over the past few weeks, airstrikes and missile attacks have hit hospitals, telecommunication infrastructure, airports, a water facility and a school," they said, also denouncing the "alarming uptick in attacks" that have killed civilians and damaged infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

"The scale of the escalation is exacerbating an already severe humanitarian crisis in Yemen, complicating efforts to provide relief, threatening regional security, and undermining efforts to bring an end to the conflict," the U.N. officials continued.

Grundberg and Gressly issued a blanket reminder about obligations under international humanitarian law and said that "the United Nations has been in contact with all sides to explore options to achieve de-escalation and begin an inclusive dialogue aimed at reaching a negotiated political settlement that comprehensively ends the conflict."

"We urge all parties to engage with these efforts immediately and without preconditions," the pair added. "We call upon them to prioritize the needs and interests of the Yemeni people."
Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.

Yemen: US-made weapon used in air strike that killed scores in escalation of Saudi-led coalition attacks


Yemenis search for survivors following a reported Saudi-led airstrike on a prison in the Huthi stronghold of Sa’adah in northern Yemen, on January 21, 2022. (Photo by -/AFP via Getty Images)

NEWS

January 26, 2022 

The Saudi-led coalition used a precision-guided munition made in the United States in last week’s air strike on a detention centre in Sa’adah, north-western Yemen, which, according to Doctors without Borders, killed at least 80 people and injured over 200, Amnesty International said today. The laser-guided bomb used in the attack, manufactured by US defense company Raytheon, is the latest piece in a wider web of evidence of the use of US-manufactured weapons in incidents that could amount to war crimes.

Over the past week, the Saudi-led coalition (SLC) has relentlessly pounded northern Yemen with air strikes — including the capital city, Sana’a — that have inflicted dozens of civilian casualties and destroyed infrastructure and services. The escalation followed Huthi strikes on 17 January that targeted an oil facility in Abu Dhabi, which killed three civilians.

“Horrific images that have trickled out of Yemen despite the four-day internet blackout are a jarring reminder of who is paying the terrible price for Western states’ lucrative arms sales to Saudi Arabia and its coalition allies,” said Lynn Maalouf, Amnesty International’s Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa.

“The USA and other arms-supplying states must immediately halt transfers of arms, equipment, and military assistance to all parties involved in the conflict in Yemen. The international community has a responsibility to close the gates to all arms sales that are fueling the needless suffering of civilians in the armed conflict.

“By knowingly supplying the means by which the SLC has repeatedly violated international human rights and humanitarian law, the USA — along with the UK and France — share responsibility for these violations.”

Amnesty International’s arms experts analysed photos of the remnants of the weapon used in the attack on the detention centre and identified the bomb as a GBU-12, a 500lb laser-guided bomb manufactured by Raytheon.

Since March 2015, Amnesty International’s researchers have investigated dozens of air strikes and repeatedly found and identified remnants of US-manufactured munitions. Amnesty International previously identified the use of the same US-made Raytheon bombs used on 21 January in a Saudi-led air strike carried out on 28 June 2019 on a residential home in Ta’iz governorate, Yemen, that killed six civilians — including three children.

The international community has a responsibility to close the gates to all arms sales that are fueling the needless suffering of civilians in the armed conflict.Lynn Maalouf, Amnesty International

In September 2021, the US House of Representatives passed a provision to its yearly defence bill ending US support for the SLC’s offensive operations and air strikes in Yemen, yet it was removed from the final bill that later passed into law.

US President Joe Biden has abandoned promises made after first taking office in early 2021 to end US support for offensive operations in Yemen, including arms sales, and to “center human rights in foreign policy” and ensure rights abusers “are held accountable.” Saudi Arabia and the UAE are apparent exceptions. Since November 2021, the Biden administration has approved sales of — and awarded US firms contracts for — missiles, aircraft, and an anti-ballistic defense system to Saudi Arabia, including a $28 million deal for US maintenance of Saudi aircraft in mid-January.

Among these was the approved sale of $650 million in missiles to Saudi Arabia, also from Raytheon, which Congress greenlit despite motions to block it. In December, the administration stated it “remains committed” to the proposed sales of $23 billion in F-35 aircraft, MQ-9B, and munitions to the UAE — despite strong human rights concerns. Continuing to arm the SLC not only fails to meet the US’s obligations under international law, it also violates US law. The Foreign Assistance Act and Leahy Laws both bar US arms sales and military aid to gross violators of human rights.

On 20 January, the Saudi-led coalition launched air strikes on the port city of Hudaydah, killing at least three children, according to Save the Children. Air strikes have also targeted a telecommunication building in Hudaydah, causing a nationwide internet blackout. Yemen was largely without internet access for four days, leaving friends and families out of touch and restricting people’s ability to access or share information on the situation.

Under international humanitarian law, all parties to the conflict have a clear obligation to protect the lives of civilians caught up in the hostilities, including detainees. The deliberate targeting of civilian objects and extensive, unjustified destruction of property are war crimes.

The coalition has denied targeting the detention centre in Sa’adah that was hit in the 21 January air strike. The United Nations described the attack as the “worst civilian-casualty incident in the last three years in Yemen”.

Background

The conflict in Yemen has taken a devastating toll on civilians across the country. The people of Yemen have been exposed to unlawful practices by state and non-state armed groups alike, while violations of human rights and international humanitarian law, including war crimes, have been committed by all parties in the conflict throughout the nation.

The latest escalation in violence came after Huthi strikes on Abu Dhabi, UAE, on 17 January. On 23 January, a missile struck in southern Saudi Arabia, which reportedly injured two civilians.

Topics

Yemen Huthi rebels, Saudi-led coalition in high stakes drone feud

Domestically assembled drones that can fly hundreds of miles (kilometres) are proving a security headache for the United Arab Emirates after consecutive attacks by Yemen's rebel warriors.

© Mohammed HUWAIS Drone models adorn a public square in the rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa

The low-tech weapons, which use over-the-counter parts, were deployed in two attacks on the wealthy Gulf state, a member of the Saudi-led coalition, the Iran-backed rebels said.

Three Asian oil workers died in a drone-and-missile assault on Abu Dhabi on January 17 and on Monday, US forces based in the city fired Patriot interceptors to help shoot down two ballistic missiles.

© Saleh Al-OBEIDI Yemeni pro-government fighters including the UAE-trained Giants Brigade man a position on the outskirts of Al-Jawba in the country's northeastern province of Marib on January 27

Drones were also used in the attack, the rebels said.

The attacks, in response to rebel defeats by a UAE-trained militia, pit the Huthis' home-grown weaponry against the Emirates' billion-dollar missile defence capabilities.

The Sammad-3 drones have a range of about 1,500 kilometres (930 miles), rebels and analysts say.

They have frequently targeted neighbouring Saudi Arabia, killing and injuring civilians, and damaging infrastructure.

"The Emiratis and Saudis are finding it difficult to fend off these attacks," said James Rogers, an associate fellow at the London School of Economics.

"It is notoriously difficult to counter drone and missile attacks, especially when used in a 'swarm tactic' where multiple weapons are sent at once to overwhelm existing defences."

Experts stress the cost-effectiveness of a strategy also adopted by the Hamas movement in Gaza against Israel as well as Shiite militants targeting US forces in Iraq.

Drones have long been used by conventional forces, including the Americans in the assassination of senior Iranian commander General Qassem Soleimani at Baghdad airport in 2020.

- Missile defence -

A senior Emirati official vowed Thursday that his security-conscious country would not allow the drone threat to damage its image as a safe haven in a troubled Middle East.

"This is not going to be the new normal for the UAE. We refuse to acquiesce to the threat of Huthi terror that targets our people and way of life," the official told AFP, on condition of anonymity.

"The UAE, as home to more than 200 nationalities, stands ready to defend itself. We remain one of the most secure countries in the world, and the recent attacks have only strengthened our commitment to safeguarding the welfare of our residents," he said.

Rogers said the Huthis have been using attack drones and medium-range missiles "at low altitude and low speed so they are hard for conventional radar to detect".

Saudi Arabia and the United States have repeatedly accused Iran of supplying the Huthis with drones, missiles and other weapons, a charge Tehran denies.

The Shiite Huthi rebels say they manufacture the drones domestically, although analysts say they contain smuggled Iranian components.

"Many of the drones were locally made reproductions of state-designed military systems similar to those made by Iran," said Rogers, who has inspected captured Huthi drones.

"They were augmented with easily available commercial drone motors, wiring, control systems, and cameras. This ensures the Huthis can secure these cost-effective fighting methods, increasingly with less support from state military supplies."

The Samad-3, the Huthis' most advanced drone, can be fitted with 18 kilogrammes (40 pounds) of explosives, according to rebel media sources and analysts.

The Huthis' drones use GPS guidance and "fly autonomously along pre-programmed waypoints" towards their targets, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) experts wrote in a 2020 report.

The UAE signed a multi-billion dollar deal for the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile protection system, built by US firm Lockheed Martin, in 2011.

It also inked a $3.5-billion missile defence contract with a South Korean firm last week.

As for Saudi Arabia, its US-made Patriot missile defence system -- which already appears to have a mixed record in intercepting launches from Yemen -- is not primarily designed to repel low-flying drones, experts say.

Saudi Arabia possesses 80 standalone air defence radars, but many of these are older systems dating back several decades.

The extension of the Huthis' air offensive to the UAE came after heavy losses on the ground in Shabwa province in the face of an offensive by Emirati-trained Giants Brigade fighters.

hc-mah/th/hkb

OSHA kills emergency anti-COVID standard on order of right-wing Supreme Court

January 26, 2022 BY PAI

AP
WASHINGTON (PAI)—The Occupational Safety and Health Administration has permanently yanked its Emergency Temporary Standard requiring firms with at least 100 workers to develop and implement plans to protect employees against the coronavirus. But it’ll keep working on a permanent standard to achieve that goal.

OSHA’s January 26 decision obeys the January 13 ruling by the GOP-named six-person majority on the U.S. Supreme Court against the ETS. Those justices said OSHA exceeded its authority because the ETS is supposed to apply only to workplaces, not the wider society. The wide application made the ETS a key part of the Democratic Biden administration’s campaign to curb the virus’s spread.

The justices also left OSHA, for now, with the vague and hard-to-enforce “General Duty Clause” as its only weapon against firms that don’t protect their workers against the modern-day plague.

In its announcement, OSHA continued to urge employers to voluntarily protect their workers. OSHA’s ETS would have protected some 84 million workers, including front line workers such as meat packers, teachers and delivery truck drivers, by requiring masking and vaccinations, or—for workers who refuse vaccines—passing weekly anti-coronavirus tests.

Another several million workers, in health care, remain covered by another standard ordering hospitals and nursing homes to protect them or lose Medicare and Medicaid money. The justices, by a 5-4 vote, left that requirement in place.

“Although OSHA is withdrawing the vaccination and testing ETS as an enforceable emergency temporary standard, the agency is not withdrawing the ETS as a proposed rule,” it said. That point was buried deep in the original 253-page ETS. “The agency is prioritizing its resources to focus on finalizing a permanent Covid-19 Healthcare Standard,” it added, using the virus’s official name.

The justices dumped the ETS after an emergency Supreme Court hearing January 7 on both rules. The so-called National Federation of Independent Business, a key cog in the radical right, and 27 companies all of which had “Christian” in their names, sued OSHA.

And in oral arguments before the justices, their attorney candidly admitted preserving corporate revenues and profits was a key motivator of the challenge to the ETS. He claimed imposing it would drive up costs as droves of workers would leave.

“After evaluating the court’s decision, OSHA is withdrawing the Vaccination and Testing ETS as an enforceable emergency temporary standard,” the agency’s Federal Register notice said. It also dumped the public comment period on the withdrawal as “impracticable, unnecessary, and contrary to the public interest… because it would unnecessarily delay the resolution of ambiguity for employers and workers alike.

“This becomes effective immediately both because there is good cause and because the action removes a requirement on the regulated community,” i.e. businesses, OSHA stated. Its decision upset the labor-backed National Council on Occupational Safety and Health.

“Covid-19 vaccines are safe, effective and an important way to reduce the risk of the deadly virus that is spreading rapidly throughout U.S. workplaces,” Jessica Martinez, a public health specialist and the council’s co-Executive Director, emailed to Press Associates Union News Service.

“It’s extremely unfortunate the Supreme Court, which operates with strict Covid protocols, denied similar protections to tens of millions of U.S. workers,” Martinez continued.

“It’s vitally important–literally a matter of life and death–that OSHA proceed with implementing permanent standards to protect all workers against Covid-19 and other infectious diseases, not just for health care workers but for workers in all industries. The agency must also enforce current rules that require all employers to provide a workplace free from known hazards.”

National Nurses United, whose RNs are on the frontlines of the fight against the coronavirus, had denounced the High Court’s ruling yanking protections from all other workers, while lauding protections for health care workers.

“At a time when we’re closing in on 850,000 Americans having died in the worst global pandemic in a century, and when infections and hospitalizations are continuing to soar, it is the obligation of our public agencies to require and enforce essential public safety measures to protect the lives and health of all American workers,” NNU President Zenei Triunfo-Cortez, RN, said then.

In a prior letter, United Food and Commercial Workers President Marc Perrone urged CEOs of large grocers, retailers and warehouse firms whom his front-line members toil for to protect their workers, regardless of the fate of OSHA’s anti-virus rule. Many haven’t.

“With the new winter surge and emergence of the Omicron variant, it is critical for our nation’s largest retail and food employers–including Amazon, Walmart, Kroger, and Whole Foods–to take immediate steps to protect essential workers and members of the public,” he wrote them last month.

“Waiting for this pandemic to once more spiral out of control is not an option. These actions must be taken now to help reduce the risk of more essential worker infections and deaths.”

Calls and emails for comment to the AFL-CIO’s job safety and health department, the National Employment Law Project and the National Partnership for Women and Families were not immediately returned.


CONTRIBUTOR

PAI
Press Associates Union News Service provides national coverage of news affecting workers, including activism, politics, economics, legislation in Congress and actions by the White House, federal agencies and the courts that affect working people. Mark Gruenberg is Editor in chief and owner of Press Associates Union News Service, Washington, D.C.

Citing Promising New Research on Babies’ Brain Development, Senators Renew Pitch for Expanded Child Tax Credit

By LINDA JACOBSON |

 January 26, 2022

Washington D.C.-area residents Cara Baldari and her nine-month-old daughter Evie (L), and Sarah Orrin-Vipond and her eight-month-old son Otto (R), joined a rally in front of the U.S. Capitol Dec. 13, 2021, to urge passage of Build Back Better legislation and the expanded Child Tax Credit.

(Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Calling it the “biggest investment in American families and children in a generation,” five Democratic senators on Wednesday urged President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to keep the expanded Child Tax Credit at the center of any future version of their domestic policy agenda.

The $1.75 trillion Build Back Better plan, which the House passed in November, has been stalled in the Senate largely due to opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin, a moderate West Virginia Democrat, to some proposals, including extending a beefed-up version of the credit. The monthly payments, up to $300 per month for young children, ended in December. Census Bureau data shows most families have used the money for rent, groceries and school-related expenses.

“The expanded [Child Tax Credit] is a signature domestic policy achievement of this administration, and has been an overwhelming success,” Sens. Michael Bennet of Colorado, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Cory Booker of New Jersey, Rev. Ralph Warnock of Georgia and Ron Wyden of Oregon wrote in a letter. “After historic progress, it is unacceptable to return to a status quo in which children are America’s poorest residents and child poverty costs our nation more than $1 trillion per year.”

The senators’ letter comes a week after Biden cast doubt on his ability to reach a deal with Manchin that includes the expanded credit. In a Jan. 19 press conference, he said he cares “a great deal” about the credit and said he would keep trying to get it passed. The senators also highlighted research released this week showing such policies can have positive impacts on babies’ brain development. With the Senate soon expected to return to discussions over Build Back Better, the question is whether the study could influence Manchin’s position.

Supporters of cash support for low-income families are “quite enthusiastic” about the findings, said Greg Duncan, an education professor at the University of California, Irvine, and a lead researcher on the $17 million Baby’s First Years project. He’s working with advocacy groups in West Virginia to schedule a briefing for Manchin, and added that the researchers have “tried to connect with all sorts of people on the political spectrum.”

The first U.S. evaluation of a “direct poverty reduction” focused on early childhood, according to the press release, the study randomly assigned 1,000 low-income, mostly Black and Hispanic mothers in four cities to receive debit cards with monthly payments of either $333 or a nominal $20. After one year, infants in households that received the assistance were more likely than those in the control group to show brain activity associated with thinking and learning.

The researchers suggest that the cash support can reduce stress on mothers and in turn improve home environments for young children. The study began before the pandemic, but bimonthly surveys by researchers at the University of Oregon have shown that lockdowns, family isolation and financial stress related to COVID-19 have led to greater anxiety among parents and irritability among children.

While researchers can’t predict if children in the families receiving the payments will continue to have an advantage, they didn’t expect to see such quick results.

“It surprised most of us that after only one year of [cash] transfers that this would actually show up as clearly as it did in the data,” Duncan said. “We always take the long view and thought it would take several years before the stress levels would be reduced.”

A second paper focusing on whether mothers spent the money on drugs or alcohol is expected this spring, followed by a third looking at whether the financial support is associated with mothers pulling out of the workforce. Critics, including Manchin, argue such programs should have a work requirement.

Duncan said that the findings add to a body of evidence that suggests “income has a causal effect on child well-being, particularly in early childhood and when poverty is quite persistent.”

Katharine Stevens, founder and CEO of the Center on Child and Family Policy, called the study an “unusually rigorous attempt to begin identifying the most effective, policy-relevant drivers of child well-being.” But she rejected the suggestion that the money was a direct cause of the brain growth in children.

Babies “do not eat, breathe or interact with money,” she said, adding that more research is needed to determine the “mechanisms that matter most” in young children’s development.

Manchin Internationally Reviled Over Climate Obstruction

"What the Americans do or don't do on climate will impact the world and it's incredible that this one coal lobbyist is holding things up."

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) enters his car after participating in a vote at the U.S. Capitol Building on December 14, 2021 in Washington, D.C. (Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

JULIA CONLEY

January 26, 2022

The threat Sen. Joe Manchin poses to the planet by refusing to back ambitious climate legislation has not gone unnoticed by people in parts of the world that are most at risk for destruction from global heating, according to new reporting.

As The Guardian reported Wednesday, the right-wing Democrat who represents West Virginia has gained infamy in the Global South, including in the Marshall Islands, where 96% of the capital city of Majuro is at risk for frequent flooding due to rising sea levels.

"I've been following the situation closely," Tina Stege, climate envoy for the islands, told The Guardian regarding negotiations in the U.S. over the Build Back Better Act, which have been stalled for weeks due to Manchin's objections. "We have to halve emissions in this decade and can't do it without strong, immediate action by the U.S."

"Joe Manchin is going to go down in history for dooming climate action if this goes on."

Manchin ultimately said last month that the extension of the expanded Child Tax Credit for more than 35 million middle- and lower-income families was what kept him from supporting the $1.75 trillion investment in climate action and social spending, but he has also spent the past year demanding that the Democratic Party weaken the package's climate provisions.

In October, Manchin pressured the party to remove the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) from the Build Back Better Act, eliminating a provision which would have rewarded utility companies that transition from burning fossil fuels to using renewable energy sources. The CEPP would "get us most of the way to the national target of 80% [renewable energy] by 2030," according to independent research firm the Rhodium Group.

That same month, the senator also demanded Democrats remove from the legislation a methane fee for oil and gas companies.

Without legislation requiring the U.S. to slash its fossil fuel emissions, Stege told The Guardian, "the outcomes for countries like mine are unthinkable."

In Bangladesh, where one in every seven people are expected to become climate refugees by 2050 if planet-heating emissions are not drastically reduced, the West Virginia lawmaker is well-known among the general public.

"If you talk to the average citizen in Dhaka, they will know who Joe Manchin is," Saleemul Huq, director of the International Center for Climate Change and Development (ICCCD), told The Guardian, calling the senator a "coal lobbyist."

Manchin is the founder of Enersystems, a coal brokerage firm that's now owned by his son and which has paid the senator $5 million over the past decade according to financial disclosure forms.

"What the Americans do or don't do on climate will impact the world and it's incredible that this one coal lobbyist is holding things up," Huq told The Guardian. "It will cause very bad consequences for us in Bangladesh, unfortunately."

Rising sea levels, drought, landslides, and flooding are just some of the climate impacts that are already displacing people in low-lying Bangladesh, and coastal drinking water has also been contaminated through salinization driven by sea level rise, according to the Environmental Justice Foundation.

That contamination has left "the 33 million people who rely on such resources vulnerable to health problems such as pre-eclampsia during pregnancy, acute respiratory infections, and skin diseases."

"In failing to take action on climate (again), we are literally dooming the global population," tweeted grassroots group Young Americans in response to The Guardian's reporting, demanding that Manchin "deliver on climate."

In the U.S., Manchin's actions and connections to the coal industry have led climate campaigners to condemn him as a "fossil-fueled sociopath."

"The reasons for which Manchin claims he does not support the Build Back Better Act don't add up. West Virginians support the legislation," Greenpeace USA climate campaign director Janet Redman said last month. "At the end of the day, Manchin cares less about his constituents than he does about the fossil fuel industry."

In addition to communities in the Global South, The Guardian highlighted international headlines that have focused in recent months on Manchin's ties to the fossil fuel industry and his refusal to back legislation to rein in coal, oil, and gas companies, even as the effects of the climate emergency are made apparent by deadly flooding, heatwaves, and wildfires in the U.S. and abroad.

Italian outlet La Repubblica accused Manchin of "betraying" President Joe Biden, while Argentinian newspaper Clarín described him as a "tycoon with ties to the mining structure of West Virginia."

Biden said last week that some provisions in the Build Back Better Act may still be able to pass in Congress, and suggested this week that he may focus on passing climate provisions separately.

Manchin has claimed "there's a lot of areas in climate," but insists that "you cannot eliminate your way to a cleaner environment," suggesting he's no more likely to support the far-reaching CEPP as standalone legislation than he was when it was included in the Build Back Better Act.

"Joe Manchin is going to go down in history for dooming climate action if this goes on," tweeted Vox reporter Rebecca Leber.

Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.

Japan to align with U.S. on space, cyber in security strategy revamp

Kishida's government kicks off policy review with year-end goal

The National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center

 in the U.S. Japan will incorporate cyberdefense to its security strategy to align with Washington. 

© Reuters

RIEKO MIKI, Nikkei staff writer

January 27, 2022

TOKYO -- Japan's government kicked off discussions Wednesday on revising its security strategy to extend cooperation with the U.S. to new areas like space and cybersecurity as the allies look to counter growing threats in the Indo-Pacific region.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has called for an overhaul of the National Security Strategy, which forms the basis of Japan's foreign and defense policies, for the first time.

This will take place in conjunction with revisions to the country's two most important defense documents -- the National Defense Program Guidelines and the Medium-Term Defense Program -- by the end of this year, ahead of schedule.

As the Biden administration conducts its own strategic review, Tokyo looks to align closer with Washington in a security environment that faces a growing military threat from China, including Beijing's saber-rattling with Taiwan as well as its maritime expansion in the Indo-Pacific region.

Wednesday marked the first of a series of expert panel hearings that will last until fall and cover a broad range of topics with security implications, including artificial intelligence, quantum technology and climate change.

The process follows the "2-plus-2" meeting of Japanese and American diplomatic and defense chiefs on Jan. 7. The participants said in a joint statement that "the United States and Japan resolved to ensure alignment of alliance visions and priorities through key forthcoming national security strategy documents."

China and Russia are building up military capabilities in cyberspace and in outer space. Military planners are embracing the concept of "cross-domain operations," which combine conventional warfare with new technology, such as cyberattacks and electromagnetic pulse attacks.

Responding to cyberattacks in particular will feature in the strategic review. Attacks on computer systems have multiplied 8.5 times between 2015 and 2020, according to Japan's National Institute of Information and Communications Technology.

Japan lacks cyberdefense specialists and lags behind Western peers in that field. Tokyo will seek to improve its counteroffensive capabilities through joint exercises with the U.S.

In space, Japan will take such steps as working with the U.S.'s satellite program to deepen cooperation with allies.

Economic security, which had never been part of Japan's strategy, has also become a crucial plank. The revised strategy will bolster the supply chain and safeguard advanced dual-use technology. Approaches that take China into account will be put on the table.

Japan is weighing its need for base strike capabilities that could take out missile sites in enemy territory. North Korea's advancing nuclear and ballistic missile programs are one motivation for these considerations.

Japan's missile defense capabilities are limited to monitoring and interception. As things stand, Japan would rely entirely on the U.S. to strike enemy locations in the event Japan sustains an attack.

"The U.S. clearly perceives Chinese missiles as a threat," said Michito Tsuruoka, an associate professor of policy management at Keio University in Tokyo. "Japan needs to be on the same page with the U.S. by revising its National Security Strategy."

As U.S. VP Harris visits Honduras, the IRC calls for stronger international cooperation to support the more than 2.8 million people in need

MEDIA CONTACTS
Everardo Esquivel
International Rescue Committee
everardo.esquivel@rescue.org
Hope Arcuri
hope.arcuri@rescue.org
Stanford Prescott
stanford.prescott@rescue.org

Tegucigalpa, Honduras, January 26, 2022 — The International Rescue Committee (IRC) welcomes the news of the visit of Vice President Harris to Honduras for the presidential inauguration of Xiomara Castro and calls for strengthening of international cooperation to address the humanitarian crisis that displaces hundreds of thousands every year.

According to the IRC’s 2022 Emergency Watchlist, Honduras is one of the 20 countries worldwide most at risk of experiencing a deterioration in its existing humanitarian crisis. With 2.8 million people already in urgent need of aid, over the year ahead the country will face chronic violence, climate-induced emergencies—which will contribute to economic decline and growing hunger—and health needs deepened by COVID-19

Meg Galas, Director for Northern Central America at the IRC, said:

“Already vulnerable people in Honduras are living in a deteriorating humanitarian crisis. Women, children and the LGBTQ+ community are the ones most affected and we have seen the demand for services skyrocket, while the organizations delivering aid need increased resources to be able to staff up to meet the urgent needs.

“It is essential to address the root causes of forced migration, a strategy that the current U.S. Administration is adopting. At the same time, we need to acknowledge that it will take time for systems to change but families across Honduras cannot wait–they have immediate needs to be safe and secure. We need to address these immediate needs too.

“Gender-based violence continues to be a leading cause of displacement. We encourage Xiomara Castro, the first female president of Honduras, to prioritize actions to address this issue. As the new Administration takes office, we call on humanitarian donors, including the United States and the European Union, to allocate sufficient resources to respond to the immediate needs of vulnerable Hondurans, and call on the U.S. to strengthen asylum systems to protect those seeking safety outside the country.”

In 2022 Emergency Watchlist, the IRC identified a “system failure” in the international systems that are meant to prevent and address humanitarian crises. These failures span from the state level to the diplomatic and legal spheres and have ramifications in the operations of humanitarian aid, fueling the emergencies, the record numbers of displacement, and the increase in needs.

The IRC calls for a total system upgrade with a dual response that includes tackling both the symptoms and the root drivers of the system failure. As part of this response, and based on a report from June 2021, the IRC has outlined a series of steps to meaningfully address the crises affecting countries in Northern Central America, of which migration is a last resort, including:
Investing in humanitarian assistance in the region, providing resources to meet the specific needs of those who are internally displaced.
Promoting opportunities for people to find safety in their communities of first refuge.
Supporting returnees to reestablish their lives in their country of origin.
Building protection capacity and alternative pathways in the region.
Addressing the leading root causes of migration.

One year into the current U.S. Administration, the IRC calls for additional actions to also provide safety for those who continue lacking alternatives and are forced to leave their countries. In a report released last week, the IRC urged the Administration to:
End harmful policies, like Title 42 and MPP, and expand capacities to process asylum seekers at ports of entry.
Fund shelters at the U.S.-Mexico border to bring humanitarian reception to scale.
Provide resources to ensure protection services are available for vulnerable populations throughout the migration pathway.

The IRC in Northern Central America

Today, the IRC serves individuals and families in vulnerable situations or at increased risk for violence and displacement, including internally displaced individuals, returnees, women, girls, youth, and members of the LGBTQ+ community who are survivors of gender-based violence. The IRC’s programming includes multi-purpose cash transfers to satisfy basic needs; the creation of safe spaces for women, youth and the LGBTQ+ community; case management and psychosocial support; and CuéntaNos, a digital platform–part of the Global Signpost project–to provide people with critical, up-to-date information and two-way communication and support with trained moderators.


ABOUT THE IRC
The International Rescue Committee responds to the world’s worst humanitarian crises, helping to restore health, safety, education, economic wellbeing, and power to people devastated by conflict and disaster. Founded in 1933 at the call of Albert Einstein, the IRC is at work in over 40 countries and over 20 U.S. cities helping people to survive, reclaim control of their future, and strengthen their communities. Learn more at www.rescue.org and follow the IRC on Twitter & Facebook.

U.S. and Nigeria Sign Agreement to Stem the Flow of Stolen Artifacts

• Published: 26 January 2022
• • WRITTEN BY DAVID KLEIN

The U.S. and Nigeria signed an agreement last week to stem the flow of illegally trafficked cultural material out of the West African state.

World-famous Benin bronzes were among the artifacts looted from Nigeria. (Photo: Joyofmuseums, Wikimedia, License)“This agreement solidifies our shared commitment to combat looting and trafficking of precious cultural property by enabling the United States to impose import restrictions on certain categories of Nigerian archaeological and ethnological material and establishes a process for the return of trafficked cultural objects, which will reduce the incentive to loot sites in Nigeria,” the U.S. State Department said in a statement.

The illegal antiquities trade is a multi-billion dollar global industry according to a 2018 report by Standard Charter Bank, and it’s beneficiaries are not just high society art aficionados, but often criminal and militant groups which raise cash by selling stolen artifacts.

The looting of cultural property from active war zones is considered a war crime under the 1954 Hague Convention.

Like material from the Middle East, Southern Europe or Latin America, West African cultural heritage is a lucrative trade for traffickers who have looted Nigeria of a wide range of artifacts created by ancient peoples. Desirable items include soapstone figurines from the Esie archaeological site; monoliths carved by the Oron people of southern Nigeria; artifacts created by the Igbo-ukwu and world-famous Benin bronzes.

Other sought-after items include ancient terracotta pieces first discovered near the village of Nok; traditional door posts made by the Awka people; intricate Ife sculptures, and other priceless pieces of heritages from the various historical groups which once inhabited the area of modern Nigeria.

“This high potential monetary gain accruable from the sale of illicit antiquities serves as one of the strong motivating factors which usually encourage criminally-minded individuals to engage in their theft and smuggling for onward sale at the international art/antiquity markets,” said a 2012 study on the state of the illegal antiquities trade in Nigeria.

During the period of Nigeria’s military dictatorship, which lasted for much of the 1980s and 1990s, some 24 Nigerian museums were ransacked and 382 artifacts looted. The trade has been bolstered by weak laws in Nigeria and abroad as well as weak security at institutions which house cultural heritage.

“The absence of effective laws governing the crime of illicit trafficking in the Nigerian cultural antiquities is another potent factor promoting the incidence of theft and smuggling of valuable cultural properties in the country,” said the study. “Also, since crime and criminality feed on opportunity, therefore, antiquity traffickers and treasure hunters usually find it easy to gain access to Nigerian cultural antiquities by capitalizing on the low level or shoddy security arrangements that exist where cultural antiquities are stored.”

Cultural institutions “are usually manned by some old men who know little or nothing about the intricacies of modern day high-powered security provisions,” it lamented.

As Nigeria signed this agreement with the U.S., officials are also working to repatriate cultural heritage that had been looted by western powers in the colonial period.

Last year, Germany agreed to hand over some 1,100 Benin bronzes which had been looted during the 1897 sacking of the kingdom of Benin, which was in modern day Nigeria. For more than a century the metal plaques and sculptures had been prominently displayed in museums and private collections around Europe.

“We are optimistic that this agreement will reduce the pillage of our irreplaceable archeological and ethnological materials, as the market for these materials is being shut in the United States against illicit traffickers,” said Alhaji Lai Mohammed, Nigeria’s minister of information and culture, according to the Guardian Nigeria.